The Astros scuffled down the stretch in Game 1 of the World Series(thanks, Verlander), and I didn’t hand out a play in Game 2. It’s been a profitable year for us in MLB, and I’m back tonight with a play in Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5(-135) vs Astros–7:03 PM CT
Is -135 a little more juice than I usually like laying? Sure. However, we should not be getting a 1.5 here, plain and simple.
The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball over the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park here in the month of October. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 batters/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.
I would lean towards the Phillies F5 ML as well given the Astros held below average numbers vs righties on the road over the final half of the regular season. Two factors are holding me off, however. The Astros did fare well against Gerrit Cole in Yankee Stadium the last time we saw them in this role and are in general a lineup I’m not comfortable going against in the postseason. And, do I really wanting to be trusting Noah Syndergaard in the World Series? He is not a main contributor to this club, and I wasn’t impressed with how he fared down the stretch after getting dealt over from the Angels. Of course, I could never play on the Phillies over the full game given they hold a massive bullpen disadvantage in the later innings.
Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5 is the play… best of luck to all who partake!
Let’s try and forget about the insanity of this NFL weekend and move forward to a sport that at least makes more sense to us on a day-to-day basis, the NBA.
NBA Premiums (23-11-1, +12.23 units):
Hornets/Kings over 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
There’s a chance this line moves against us, what else is new, but it won’t make me like it any less. The last two games for the Hornets are a bit of an aberration– the Hornets played down to the Magic and shot VERY poorly, and then the Golden State Warriors tried to assert better defense on them in what was ultimately an OT loss. The Hornets have now shot poorly in two straight contests and they’re officially way overdue for a big scoring game. The Kings are exclusively in high scoring games and don’t play much defense. I like how these two teams match up, too, with bigger athletes on the Kings but more physical athletes for Charlotte. Offense wins and points win– we get an over.
Nets/Pacers under 237.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Although the Nets are certainly due for some positive regression of offense, it doesn’t mean they will blow the doors off the Pacers in this matchup. Something’s off in Brooklyn but it starts with their defense. Simmons needs to settle in and he’s an excellent defender when he does, and hopefully in a rematch there’s no way they let Haliburton and company completely dominate them again. The Nets played piss-poor, awful defense in that game and shouldn’t call themselves a pro basketball team after it. I think variance hits Indiana and the Nets get some good feels in this one, and starting with their defense.
Raptors -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors could be 4-2 or 5-1, they’re good and very well-coached. The Hawks are a fake-news-4-2 and easily could have been 0-6. They’re just not rounding into form yet and I think it shows against a team with a lot of chemistry, length, toughness, and in a great spot at home. All Raptors for me.
Grizzlies anything -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
I think Ja Morant might return in this game and even if he doesn’t, the Memphis Grizzlies are #1 in offensive efficiency and should answer the bell after a game where they just didn’t play any defense. Explosive and when motivated with high discipline, I expect the Grizzlies to overwhelm a Jazz squad that’s still playing over their heads.
This line moved pretty quickly to -3 when Matt Ryan was announced as benched. I think that it is hard to determine how good Sam Ehlinger is, but what we do know is that young quarterbacks add more variance to the game. The Colts are stacked at the skill positions with their weakness at the offensive line. As long as Frank Reich designs some plays where he can have his young quarterback get rid of the ball quickly, I think that they should be ok. The Commies rank 29th in pass DVOA having a bad secondary. On the flip side, the Commies are not as bad as some people may think, I had to upgrade them 3 points on their offense after Taylor Heinicke was announced in. The Colts are exactly great against the pass themselves ranking 20th in pass DVOA and I can see Washington have some success throwing to Brown, Samuel and McLaurin. Not enough defense and too much offense on both sides of the ball can spell chaos in this game.
Over 39.5 – 2 stars
San Francisco vs LA Rams +1 O/U 42.5
This game isn’t hard for me to handicap. Is the Rams coming off of a bye? Yes they are, but they are also coming off of a win before that bye against Carolina. San Francisco has been banged up this year, especially in their secondary. It showed badly for them last week vs a dominant Chiefs team but the good news is that the 49ers should be getting Jason Verrett back. Both of these coaches know each other quite well, but let’s face it, Kyle Shanahan owns this matchup winning 7 of their last 8 games, and covering 7 out of the last 8. I have the 49ers as a better team than the Rams, and I think that they pull it together for a big division game still in revenge mode from last year in the playoffs. Metrically, the 9ers have a big advantage offensively and defensively ranking 15th to 31st in offensive EPA and 8th to the Rams 9th in defense. The Rams have a terrible offensive line and that is where the 49ers should feast and get to Matt Stafford. Now I know that Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszcyzuk is out, but that just gives the 49ers more opportunity to get their new weapon in CMC going. The Rams should not have a big home field advantage here due to the shear number of 49er fans that live in the LA area. Take the fighting Shanahan’s to win and cover the small number.
49ers -1 – 2 stars
Teaser: Broncos to +8 with the Jets to +8.5 – 2 stars
Warriors/Hornets over 233 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a game the Warriors should win and they need to start stacking up Ws in spots where it’s feasible, especially since they’re deciding to play a lot of their young bucks. The Hornets won’t want to play defense tonight after a tough loss last night and the Warriors haven’t played much consistent defense yet this season. Both teams run at a top 10 pace– love the over.
Nets 1H -6 (-115), to win 1.5 units
The Pacers are a second half team and the clumsy Nets NEED a big win here. Their offense should go HAM in the first 24 minutes; I could see them, in all their flaws, allowing the Pacers back in this late. Taking the first half only.
Bucks -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hawks have looked very inconsistent and I think they’ll be fake news early, especially against great teams. They’re also not built for back-to-backs on the road; this is no big deal for an elite Milwaukee squad who’s been through far worse together.
CFB Week 7 Picks ( 32-37-7, -10.21 units):
UCF +1 (-105), to win 1 unit
I trust Gus Malzahn to make things right at home in what should be a raucous environment. Cincy is significantly less talented and has looked really poor in spots. The same could be said for UCF but they tripped last weekend in anticipation of this contest and I think they take care of business this go-round. UCF’s offense, which is 7th in the nation in yards per game, will be the difference.
Penn State +15.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
CJ Stroud has made some egregious mistakes lately and I don’t love that heading into Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions always play Ohio State hard and that’s especially true at home. I think it’s possible this line may fall before kickoff so let’s take it over 2 TDs now. Personally, I think the Buckeyes’ offense is overrated. Of course they’re really good; but they’re not historic.
Auburn +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
This line is falling and falling so let’s take advantage of it while we can. Auburn is an explosive offense, top 5 in CFB in big plays, and all Arkansas does is ALLOW big plays to opposing offenses. At home and with historic ATS trends on their side, this feels like a FG game.
UFC Fight Night, (13-14, +11.38 units in 2022):
Arnold Allen (-110), to win 2 units
Much like Island last week, Allen just seems to be built differently. Normally, against an elite opponent like Kattar, I’d be looking the other direction. But this dude has made a statement in the featherweight division and the power behind his punches should be the difference.
This will be the biggest game of the weekend and this line is in Limbo between the 14 and the 17. Since the Notre Dame game, Ohio State hasn’t scored less than 45 points. They are number 1 on offensive EPA and number 12th in defense. Penn State on the other hand has had just one difficult game vs Michigan and lost pretty badly, but they at least redeemed themselves last week after the bye smoking the Wolverines thus affecting this spread some. Penn State is only 67th in offensive EPA and 23rd on defense. Both schedules are pretty equal up to this point. If the Nittney Lions have any shot of covering this spread, it lies with their secondary who is pretty loaded with Talent. The problem is that Ohio State can also attack them with Miyan Willams and TreVeyon Henderson. Penn State got gashed against the run vs Michigan and they rank 50th in opponent rush EPA. My power number on this game is Ohio State -14 here but I do not want to go against them here. Instead, I might take the Buckeyes team total over 37.5 under the key number of 38.
Ohio State TT over 37.5 -120 – 1.5 stars
Florida vs Georgia -22.5 O/U 56
The World’s largest cocktail party continues in Jacksonville Florida, but this spread certainly doesn’t warrant a close game. The day is supposed to be rainy with a little wind, but I don’t know how that stops Georgia from scoring 1000 points here. The Dawgs rank 1st in offensive rushing play success rate while Florida ranks 107th on defense. The big question is if Florida can put up 17 points to hit this over. I think that they can just due to Richardson’s mobility. Florida has one of the best rushing games in football themselves, and Richardson has shown that he can rise up in big games vs Utah and Tennessee. I also like that both teams are coming off the bye and should look sharp on offense. The Bulldogs average 42 points per game and Florida has a below average defense.
Over 56 for 2 stars and Georgia TT over 39 – 1 star
USC vs Arizona -15 O/U 75
Big Pac 12 matchup here and I have to imagine that the Trojans are salivating to get back on the field after that Utah loss. Both teams are coming off of the bye here but let’s face it, USC has a lot more to play for coming into this game. Remember when I talked about turnover margin and that USC has only lost 1 this year? Well sometimes it’s something that you can use for regression, but USC is number 1 in turnover margin, and I think that they are just being very smart with the ball. Arizona ranks 99th in turnover margin and could cough it up at any point this game. The condoms have a 1.25 positive net yards per play while Arizona is -.46. I just do not see how the Wildcats stop USC from scoring here. When I looked at this stat, I was shocked to see the Wildcat’s rank 131st in opponent rushing success rate and 130th in opponent passing success rate. I think USC names their final score here.
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 5-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. Had a nice no doubter entry last week led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. That won’t be happening this week. This lineup is a little more unconventional. Little different atmosphere for me this week doing research for Sunday’s action out by the pool in sunny Arizona with beers in hand.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 11-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
P.J. Walker, QB: $5,200. Wait what? Is that correct? It sure is. Value QB time. Steve Wilks gave him the green light for this week and he gets the worst passing defense in the league in the Falcons. They can’t get to the quarterback and they can’t defend in the back end. The Dirty birds secondary is also getting worse not better allowing 368+ passing yards per game in their last three matchups against Burrow, Brady and Garoppolo. Walker isn’t on the same level as any of those QBs, but he has shown enough in limited action the last 2 weeks where I think he is a solid option against this secondary. Also the Panthers ran the ball well with Foreman and Hubbard against the Bucs who got gashed again on the ground last night. They won’t find the same success against this Falcons squad rushing. They only allow 101 yards per game on the ground and that’s with them trailing a bunch in garbage time.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,400. The Titans rushing offense started slowly this season, but Henry has been ramping it up the last month. He missed week 6 with the Bye, but his last 4 starts have yielded an average of 25 carries for 108 YPG and 4 rushing TDs. His last two starts vs the Texans he has 56 carries for 462 yards and 4 TDs. And would you look, the Texans are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense allowing 164.7 YPG. Henry should feast on this Texans team again Sunday.
Kenneth Walker III, RB: $6,500. The Giants are winning football games. 6 out of 7 so far to be exact. Is it smoke and mirrors? Maybe. I think Daboll is the real deal as a football coach. I also think they’ve gotten some breaks because of the reason I am putting Walker in here. The rushing defense has struggled. They’ve allowed a 100 yard rusher in 4 of 7 games. They are 28th in total rushing defense allowing over 144 YPG. I think Jacksonville made a big mistake last week getting away from the ground game. How do you only hand it off 17 times in a game when you are averaging 8.2 yards per carry? Anyhoo….in the two and a half games since Walker has become the main back he has 52 carries for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns. That doesn’t suck. Geno Smith has proved he is enough of a threat to throw downfield that this rushing attack will continue to flourish.
DJ Moore, WR: $5,300. Here’s the guy P.J. Walker wants to go to. He had 10 targets with 7 catches for 69 yards and a score against the Bucs last week. With McCaffrey gone from this team and a solid rush defense opposing the Panthers this week I see a lot of targets coming his way again. I can’t believe I am saying this, but I like some Panthers stacks this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR: $7,400. Do you think Hopkins is a difference maker in the AZ offensive plan? In a game where the defense put them in a position to run the ball more Hopkins still had 14 targets. He reeled in 10 for 103 yards in his first game back from suspension. Guess which team is the worst in passing yards allowed per attempt in 2022? It’s the Vikings.
Adam Thielen, WR: $6,200. Thielen hasn’t had any huge yardage games up to this point and has only found the end zone twice this season. He is however averaging just under 8 targets a game since week 2. The Cardinals defense hasn’t been awful against secondary receivers thus far, but are 25th in total passing defense. I think coming off a Bye the Vikings will look to get Cousins going this week. Look for a big week for Jefferson also. He’s just too pricey for me.
Mike Gesicki, TE: $3,800. Gesicki has been feast or famine so far this season, but he does have 7 targets in each of his last two games. One with Tua and one without. The Lions are 29th in the league in defending the tight end allowing 5.5 catches and just over 62 yards per game to opposing TE1s.
Paris Campbell, FLEX: $4,600. Well this one will be a mystery with Matt Ryan being seemingly done with the Colts. Sam Ehlinger takes the reins, and from all reports has put in the time working with strength and throwing coaches to be able to make the throws all over the field needed to run this offense. Campbell had seemingly started too become a favorite intermediate target for Ryan when he actually had time to throw the ball. I am concerned that Ehlinger will be very heavy in slot targets to Pittman and then running backs in his first start this year, but I think at this price as a FLEX it’s worth a shot to play Paris as he will have to push the ball down field at some point and Campbell should get some looks. This was a coin flip for me between Campbell and Alec Pierce, but Campbell’s snap count has been much higher so far this year.
Commanders, DST: $2,600. Well the Commanders have been solid on Defense the last two weeks. The played the Packers and the Bears though so that’s not saying much. The do have the 7th most sacks in the NFL this season so they are getting some pressure on the opposing QB. They have only forced 4 total turnovers on the year so far though. Hoping against Ehlinger making his first start they can force some mistakes.
*MLB(0.74u): Astros -1.5(+135) vs Phillies–7:03 PM CT
Astros SP Justin Verlander has been phenomenal at Minute Maid Park this season, bringing a 1.64 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in this role into tonight’s start. I’m most impressed about Verlander’s ability to limit HR’s this year(0.4 HR/9 at home) after struggling in that facet the past few seasons. He was effective against an overvalued Yankees lineup the last time we saw him, and quite frankly, this might be a more favorable matchup. The Phillies do not handle righties well away from their home ballpark; they held a poor 79 wRC+ in this role over the final 2 months of the regular season, and it has carried over into the postseason. Braves SP Kyle Wright pitched a shutout against this lineup in the NLDS, and Yu Darvish allowed just 4 baserunners in 7 innings at Petco Park. The Phils are a whole different lineup on the road vs lefties, but this is a role they have proven to falter in.
There is a reason Phillies SP Aaron Nola held an ERA north of 3.00 this season despite carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP: He consistently has blowup innings. True to form, Nola allowed a 5 spot in the 5th inning in his last start at San Diego. Now, he’ll face an Astros lineup that mashed right-handed pitching at home down the stretch of the season and is filled with guys used to playing in the postseason. On a night where I don’t expect him to get much run support, I can’t trust Nola in this spot.
A HUGE part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. The Phillies ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Astros unequivocally had a Top 5 bullpen in the game. The Phillies ‘pen has improved over the postseason(1.11 WHIP), but they still lag far behind this Astros ‘pen(0.78 WHIP in postseason).
