Coming off a 2-1 night, I’m rolling with one play for tonight on what is a pretty short slate. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Iowa -4 vs Iowa State–6 PM CT
Just two nights ago, we saw Iowa look pretty poor in a double-digit loss to Duke at MSG. No rest for the weary, however, as the Hawkeyes return back home to take on their in-state rival. The first thing that jumps out to me is that this is a MAJOR revenge spot for the Hawkeyes after they were obliterated in Ames last year by a clearly inferior opponent.
Like most Big12 teams, Iowa State defends at a very high level; with that said, this is an offense I want to be fading, especially in hostile road environments. The Cyclones shoot just 44% from the field, less than 70% from the free throw line, and less than 32% from 3. Given the snails pace they like to play at, this is a team that’s going to try to engage in a lot of ugly affairs. Iowa, on the other hand, is a “run-and-gun team” that does a lot of little things right. They hold a stark FT% advantage in this game and lead the nation with a dazzling 1.9 Assist/Turnover ratio.
I can trust the Hawkeyes in their home gym given they’ve won by at least 16 in every home game this season. Meanwhile, this is Iowa State’s first true road game of the season. I would’ve made this number at least 6, so I see quite a bit of value in trusting the short home favorite in this rivalry game.
Well we went 3-3 Wednesday, annoying, but at least it wasn’t a complete ass-kicking like we’ve seen the last two days. And we had a slight + unit night. Don’t like much from this shitty 3 game slate tonight, but I have one play. Waiting on the Clippers’ injury report and maybe we’ll have another.
Nuggets/Blazers over 228.5 (-108), to win 1.5 units
This number’s been ticking up for good reason.
Both teams have regressed on defense, especially Portland. Denver’s never been good.
Denver plays with more pace on the road to compensate.
Denver has lost 3 in a row and they’ve been stifled at various moments by good defenses in their last 3 games. I think they get-right tonight.
Both teams have matchup advantages on offense– Denver’s size, Portland’s guards.
I set this number at 234.
Their first game ended in a 245 point total, and I don’t think that was an aberration.
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Adding two more, like them too much not to. Lowering unit size to proceed with caution.
Celtics +1 (-112), to win 1 unit
This line has moved too much
Best team in the NBA getting value
They’ve handled their business in tough spots
The Suns are very good defensively at home, but can any team totally limit Boston right now?
I still have Boston favored by 2 points in this– too much value not to take
Kings/Bucks under 235.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Another huge total and even though the Kings routinely hit these, we should only bet overs on totals this big in unique situations
The Bucks are healthier than they’ve ever been all season
Giannis and Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday can clamp onto the Kings’ stars and limit their production
Sabonis, in particularly, has a very difficult matchup against Lopez/Giannis tonight
I think Milwaukee sees stopping the Kings’ offense as a personal challenge– UNDER
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Hornets +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is too many points, period
The Hornets have been playing better, keeping games close against elite teams like the Bucks, Clippers, Wizards, and solid wins against the Timberwolves and 76ers
Charlotte seems to finally have more an identity– a try hard, more cohesive unit and plays over their heads because, well, they need to in order to keep up. They’re not turning it over, they’re collecting offensive boards, and their ball movement is cleaner
I grade the Nets as slightly better than an average team, and the Hornets as 4 points worse than an average team right now
Nets only have a +0.7 point differential
Charlotte is -5.8, but most of that is b/c of their losing stretch in November, where they were murdered by teams over and over while they incurred myriad injuries
Two eastern conference teams, it means something to Charlotte
The Nets are capable of blowing out a team like the Hornets but they rarely do, and their lack of team chemistry (b/c of their selfish stars) is a more frequent factor
I have Nets -6.5, that’s enough value for me.
On an ordinary day, this would be a 1.5 unit play. Because of the way our bets are going lately, we’ll keep it at 1 unit
Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Thunder/Grizzlies over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incoming
OKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 games
They’re also a top 10 offense who’s learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usual
Memphis runs faster and more explosive at home
Their offense has been clicking, even when their stars are out
I set this at 235 – taking the over
Celtics/Suns under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG
A 1-2-1 night drops me to 11-11-1 on the CBB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*CBB(0.5u): Miami(FL) TT OVER 84.5 vs Cornell –6 PM CT
Cornell is a team that runs with a lot of pace, but when stepping up in competition, that strategy is really going to hurt their defense(which ranks 234th according to KenPom). They have played only 1 Power 5 opponent this season(Boston College); despite having an offense that ranks outside the KenPom Top 200, the Golden Eagles had no issue putting up 79 on Cornell that night.
Miami presents a set of athletes that the Big Red simply haven’t dealt with this year. While the Hurricanes don’t specialize at 3-point shooting, they are great inside and should feast in this matchup considering Cornell ranks just 221st in defensive rebounding %. The ‘Canes are also great from the foul line, hitting nearly 75% of their FT’s. With the pace Cornell is going to bring into Coral Gables, I can see Miami getting to 90 here. Cornell could keep this competitive with their good jump shooting, but I will isolate the matchup I feel best about.
*CBB(0.5u): Southern Illinois -4 vs Indiana State–7 PM CT
This line is very telling; 8-1 Indiana State is a sizable ‘dog to run-of-the-mill 5-3 Southern Illinois. First of all, I don’t like this 2nd straight road game spot for ISU after they played at Miami OH just a few days ago. Secondly, I don’t think the Sycamores’ 8-1 record is a good reflection of their talent considering they have played the 20th easiest schedule in the nation up to this point. I don’t think you can expect them to keep their current pace of play up in a road, conference game against an underrated Salukis squad.
The best unit on the floor tonight is clearly Southern Illinois’ defense; they rank 46th according to KenPom and have the likes of Oklahoma State and UNLV to 60 or less this year. While they slipped a bit on the road against a good Saint Louis this past weekend, I think they are equipped to shut down ISU tonight. Salukis win this game comfortably.
*CBB(0.5u): Arizona State/SMU UNDER 135.5–8 PM CT
This matchup checks a lot of the boxes I look for when playing Unders. Both teams shoot less than 70% from the FT line, less than 30% from 3pt land, are not great offensive rebounding bunches, and hold Assist/Turnover ratios around 1. Many people saw Arizona State blitz Michigan a few weeks ago, but that was an anomaly for this offense; they were held to just 60 points in their last road matchup at Colorado. SMU is clearly not the same team we’ve become accustomed to, but that has much more to say about the offensive playmaking they’ve lost. This is a major step-up spot for the Mustangs playing a Power 5 opponent, and I don’t think they have a whole lot of trouble getting stops. Still, Arizona State’s defense is by far the best unit on the floor, and SMU’s offensive woes are too gruesome to overlook.
I expect this to be a competitive game, but Under is the best play.
It was pretty cool when AD got injured and left in the 1Q, since he was pretty much the main reason for my Lakers’ handicap. Sweet.
PS – the Celtics/Suns total shot up quickly after we gave out our picks so I assume everyone got under 232.5 in. We made the necessary changes. Move onward, all we can do.
Hornets +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is too many points, period
The Hornets have been playing better, keeping games close against elite teams like the Bucks, Clippers, Wizards, and solid wins against the Timberwolves and 76ers
Charlotte seems to finally have more an identity– a try hard, more cohesive unit and plays over their heads because, well, they need to in order to keep up. They’re not turning it over, they’re collecting offensive boards, and their ball movement is cleaner
I grade the Nets as slightly better than an average team, and the Hornets as 4 points worse than an average team right now
Nets only have a +0.7 point differential
Charlotte is -5.8, but most of that is b/c of their losing stretch in November, where they were murdered by teams over and over while they incurred myriad injuries
Two eastern conference teams, it means something to Charlotte
The Nets are capable of blowing out a team like the Hornets but they rarely do, and their lack of team chemistry (b/c of their selfish stars) is a more frequent factor
I have Nets -6.5, that’s enough value for me.
On an ordinary day, this would be a 1.5 unit play. Because of the way our bets are going lately, we’ll keep it at 1 unit
Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Thunder/Grizzlies over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incoming
OKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 games
They’re also a top 10 offense who’s learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usual
Memphis runs faster and more explosive at home
Their offense has been clicking, even when their stars are out
I set this at 235 – taking the over
Celtics/Suns under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG
The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Celtics/Suns under 231 (-105), to win 1.5 units
This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG
