Hey All! We’re almoooosttt in the black, finally, in this CFB season, as we’ve been winning a lot more the past few weeks. Let’s see if we can nail some MAC-tion tonight!
CFB Week 12 Picks (42-39-7, -1.15 units):
Ohio -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Ohio Bobcats are in position to win the MAC East and they would clinch it with a win tonight. Ohio has a juggernaut passing offense (in the MAC, at least), but they’re not very good at defending the pass. That’s okay, because Ball State has one of the worst passing offenses in the country, averaging only 5.9 yards per pass and throwing for under 60% this season. Ohio should be able to sustain offense and eventually it becomes too much. Love that this line moved down for us.
Bowling Green +17 (-110), to win 1 unit
Toledo will probably win at home today and clinch their spot in the MAC Championship game, but Bowling Green is 2-0 on the road in-conference and they’re a feisty team. At 4-2 in-conference, the Falcons are just one of those teams that play up or down to their competition. They also have a stingy, bend-don’t-break defense when the going gets tough, and I love that they’re ranked 13th nationally in red-zone defense. They’ll permit Toledo to score, but not enough that it’s a complete blowout. In a season that won’t amount to much, the Bowling Green Falcons would love nothing more than to knock off their rival before they proceed to bigger things.
Getting so sick of these 2-2 days, borrriiiinnggg. Let’s have a clear winning day. Like a lot today in the NBA, perhaps a little over-exposed, but we have to trust our gut.
Also – will look at CBB and CFB today, although no promises! Depends on how much time I have; Tuesday is usually my NFL capping day.
NBA Picks, 11.15 (45-34-1, +6.79 units):
Grizzlies/Pelicans 1H over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizzlies tend to allow more points and score more points in the first half. We’ve seen that in the 1H of their last 5 games in particular, with most of those halves going into the 100-teens and their totals near or over 60. The Pelicans are a faster-paced team in general, and Desmond Bane, one of the most important defensive bodies for the Grizzlies, is doubtful for tonight’s game. Grizzlies games have slowed down tremendously in the 2nd half so I don’t want to take the full game. First half, over.
Knicks/Jazz over 229.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Jazz 1H -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Jazz -4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Here I go with another damn over but I’m sorry, it just makes too much sense. Offensively the Jazz match up very well with the Knicks, who are allowing more points and more rebounds than 28 other teams. These are two top 5 teams in pace over the last 5 games and I don’t see that changing tonight. The Jazz have also been very good at home and they’re showing way more chemistry than the Knicks, who are beginning to look clumsy and they can seemingly only beat bad teams. The Jazz have been a juggernaut at home, beating teams by an average margin of 13.8 ppg. In the first halves of those games, they out-scored their opponent by an average margin of 12.4 ppg. That’s pretty astounding, and I’m going to trust that both continue.
Spurs TT under 108 or more (-110), to win 1.5 units
Blazers Alt line -10 (+125), to win 1.25 units
I tried to find a way to bet on this game because it’s such a horrible spot for San Antonio. This will be their 4th game in 6 days and they’re fresh off a dud of a performance against the Warriors last night, dropping only 95 points at Golden State. The Blazers are coming off a solid 3 days of rest and their defense has been top 10 all season. They move at the slowest pace in the NBA and since they’re fresh and able to play the kind of game they want, I think they can control this contest at home. If Nurkic is out that isn’t ideal, but the Spurs are a smaller team and I’m not sure if he’ll be as essential for their win. The Blazers tend to control tempo when they’re in a good spot, with games ending around 200 points most of the time. I trust that it’ll stay lower scoring and I think the Blazers, fresh off a 4-2 road trip and riding momentum as one of the best teams in the West, can obliterate San Antonio at home. Alt line, activated.
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 12! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a small slate tonight with only four games taking place across the NHL. I offer my best bets of the night along with a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
St. Louis Blues/ Colorado Avalanche over 6.0 (-115) – DraftKings/ PointsBet
Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units
The Blues have had a less-than-ideal start to the season. They’ve struggled in all areas ranking near the bottom in offense and defense. Their starting goaltender Jordan Binnington hasn’t been great either with a -2.7 GSAx through ten games. However, they recently snapped their eight-game losing streak over the weekend and have won their last two. Their offense has looked much better in those two games and will face a depleted Colorado defensive unit tonight.
Just like St. Louis, Colorado started off the season slow. However, that high-flying offense that we’ve known to associate with this team has returned. In their last four games, they’ve averaged 5 goals for per game. St. Louis is dead last in goals against and has a few key injuries on their blue line. Despite having a 7-1-1 record, Alexander Georgiev has a 2.66 GAA. He’s also allowed three or more goals in his last four starts.
With both of these teams offensives coming to life in the past few games and their defensive unit’s limited, I like this game to go over. When you combine those two factors with the sub-par goaltending we’ve seen out of these two starters, I expect this game to turn into a track meet.
Player Props to Target:
Evan Rodrigues over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and over 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three games. The Blues rank 18th in SOG allowed per game.
Tim Stutzle over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and over 6.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Islanders rank 19th in SOG allowed per game.
Martin Necas over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and over 5.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blackhawks rank 29th in SOG allowed per game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Well I feel abused. Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were late scratches yesterday, giving the Cavs little chance to overcome a Minnesota team in need of a win. And our DEN/CHI total lost by one point….
Onto Monday!
Hornets (+105), to win 1.05 units
Hornets/Magic over 224 (-110), to win 1 unit
LaMelo Ball returned against the Heat and made an immediate impact, but Miami was just too much. An 8-game losing streak isn’t something to bat an eye at but LaMelo’s return is a significant uptick in team-chemistry for a Hornets team that had little rhythm to speak of. The ball movement and explosiveness of their offense improved as soon as he got on the floor, although as usual he took way too many threes and only made one (1/9, to be exact). Charlotte as a whole took way too many 3s and only shot 29% overall, that should change tonight. I think the Hornets finally get a W. The Magic are playing better as a team, posting a top-10 offensive rating in their last three contests. Like the over, too.
Thunder +12 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Thunder are playing good basketball right now and we can’t turn our heads at this massive of a line. Josh Giddey is making a difference game to game, cleaning up on boards and contributing 5-10 assists per game since his return. I just really like the ball movement and chemistry of OKC, a team that doesn’t seem to care about tanking for Victor W or any other big signing. The Celtics are playing near-perfect basketball right now, but this is also a really sleepy, weird spot for Boston at home, sandwiched between some important road games ahead (Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago). Thunder cover.
Play on Giannis PAR over anything at 50 or less, if available:
The Bucks are injured as hell but they’ll want to win against the hawks in a revenge game at home. Atlanta handed them their first loss. As long as Giannis plays, look for a dominant performance. This is not an official play, just a recommendation.
Spurs/Warriors over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Golden State games just feel very predictable (jinx alert) from a totals perspective right now. They’re running at a fast pace, and even faster at home, and their defense still hasn’t caught up yet. The Spurs facilitate the ball really well and run at a tempo equivalent to the Warriors’ average this season (102+ possessions per game) when they’re on the road. San Antonio is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA right now, shooting around 38%. This feels like a fast-paced, fun game between two good perimeter shooting teams in a game where the Warriors should win and should keep the pace high.
Got a few Sunday plays, after all. Hopefully weird Sunday shit doesn’t happen.
Cavs -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Two teams going in opposite directions but the Cavs have fallen lately, too. They’re in a much better spot at home and I trust their defense. The T-Wolves? Not so much. They look really clunky and inefficient and the whole twin-tower-concept just isn’t working. Donovan Mitchell probably goes off against his former teammate and the Cavs cover, bringing more alarms to Minnesota and their new roster.
Nuggets/Bulls over 229.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Nuggets’ totals are averaging 233 ppg in their last 6. The Bulls are off extended rest. Chicago’s defense is terribly inconsistent and Denver’s defense is starting to regress, again, as they usually do every season. Both are playing at a fast pace and playing with more chemistry and offensive efficiency. Sign me up for an over.
The Mike McCarthy revenge game! Or is it the Aaron Rogers revenge game for McCarthy holding them back? Or maybe it’s the Dez Bryant, not a catch revenge game when the NFL had the rule that some catches that looked exactly like a catch were not catches depending on how you interpret the process of the catch during the actual catch rule. Anyways, I have to ask myself, what this line would be if the Cowboys were at Washington, or Arizona, or the Steelers, because all three of those teams that I have listed line up about the same metrically as the Green Bay packers. Now throw in that the Packers are without their best WR in Romeo Dobbs, their second best corner in Eric Stokes, their best pass rusher in Rashaan Gary and they have Jones and Watson questionable.
Take the Cowboys -4.5 – 2 stars
Lions vs Bears -2.5 O/U 48.5
This number keeps bouncing back and forth here. I think at the beginning of the season, the Lions were a clear better team than Chicago, but as the year progressed, Chicago has probably caught up. Now, the Lions coming off the big win vs the Packers might call for a little bit of a let down, but they are also getting healthier. Think what you want about the side, but I honestly can’t see why this total isn’t over 51 points right here. The lions are number 4 in red zone touchdown percentage and top 6 in yards per play on offense. The Bears are top 8 in EPA per play over the past 3 weeks and now they have more weapons with Claypool. Both the Bears and the Lions defenses are bottom 4 in the league. I checked the Weather for this game and it shows sunshine with normal wind. Take the over. But I will say that it feels way too easy for some reason.
Over 48.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: From Pod Seattle to +9 with Denver to +9 but if you didn’t get that, Take Denver to +9 with the 49ers to -1.5 – 2 stars
Well there’s nothing like going to bed when the bet the over on two NBA teams who scored 135 points in the first fucking half. I was wrong about the Celtics and Nuggets but I wasn’t wrong about Memphis and Minnesota. How the hell do you only score 82 points in the two proceeding quarters? Unreal.
The NBA is every day so we can’t allow ourselves to get TOO pissed off but my goodness, feels like we almost exclusively lose because of BS like that. Onto Saturday in the NBA and our CFB and UFC picks are below, too.
NBA Picks (41-28-1, +10.54 units):
Nets/Clippers over 212.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I have this total at 218 and I’d take it up to 215. I realize the Nets have been playing better defense and that the Clippers can absolutely clamp down and limit good offenses, but both teams are coming off enough rest and I like how explosive and efficient the Nets’ offense has been. You could say the same about the Clippers. LAC has averaged 113.75 pts in their last four wins and they’re 11th in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games. The Nets are 10th. The Clippers are playing faster, too, which could affect and stimulate the scoring. One of these quarters or halves will probably be pretty low scoring, but I think it ultimately gets close to 220 with some great shot-making from Durant and Paul George.
Celtics/Pistons under 225.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a regression play. Neither team shot very well in their last contest but they both played with pace and could evidently care less about any sort of defense. I don’t think that happens in this spot. Typically the second meeting looks a lot different and even better, Detroit’s number 1 scorer Cade Cunningham isn’t 100%. This total should drop significantly at some point in the contest. I’d take it down to 222.
Raptors/Pacers over 229.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Welp, here we go with another 2 unit totals play. These are the teams the Raptors dominate offensively. They’re too big, too long, and they can still run the floor with a team like Indiana. We saw it in big wins against the Hawks, Rockets, and Spurs, and the Pacers fit the same profile. Thing is, Indiana is off 3 days of rest, at home, and they love to run with pace. This line is weird or else I’d normally take Toronto, but it looks like they might be sitting a few key figures. Doesn’t matter. The players are all built with the same mentality and Toronto as a roster has size advantages all over.
76ers -3 (-110), to win 1 unit
Revenge game at home; let’s not overthink it. Atlanta is way better on their own court and not so much when they face good teams on the road. And the 76ers NEED this game. They’re 5-7 and they’ve lost 3 out of their last 4 games. Dropping a game to Phoenix is one thing; dropping two straight to an Atlanta team that’s not perfectly in-sync yet is another. Philly wins and covers at their home floor.
CFB Week 11 Picks (39-38-7, -4.05 units):
Army 1H under 9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Army goes up against one of the best defenses in the nation, at Troy, and even though the Black Knights found success against lower level teams that can’t defend a high school team, the Troy Trojans aren’t that. Army’s inability to score points against above average defenses has been stark, scoring only 7 points against AF and 10 points against Wake Forest. I’m not sure if the Knights will get close to the endzone in this contest; that’s the reality we’re dealing with. I’ll take the Army TT under early, in case somehow they figure it out for the full game.
Marshall ML (EVEN), to win 1.5 units
Marshall only recently joined the Sunbelt conference but since they started facing App State, each team has won on their home field. It’s Marshall’s turn this year. The Thundering Herd are exceptional on defense, particularly against the run. They’re 4th nationally against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry. App State still prefers to be a run-first team. Like most Sunbelt offenses, the Mountaineers have limitations and they need the run game to ignite their passing attack. I don’t think the Herd lets them get comfortable. Marshall can control the ball on the ground, they run the ball on 59% of their plays, and keep the game low scoring and close. We know that these home-field advantages can be deadly and this will be a tough crowd for the Mountaineers to overcome. Give me the Herd for 1.5 units.
Notre Dame -15.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some people will say “Navy always plays Notre Dame close” but this is a neutral site game and the Irish should be able to control the ball with their defense and a growing offensive attack led by a dynamic rushing attack. Notre Dame has put up 40 ppg against better defenses than Navy the last 3 weeks and I’m not sure the Midshipmen will be able to score many points on ND’s defense. They’re starting to look more like the unit we saw in Week 1 against the Buckeyes. All ND for me.
TCU +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should probably be the the reckoning for TCU and I don’t think they’re the true #4 team in the country, but they should be feisty on Saturday. Texas is a better defensive team against the run which means the Horned Frogs potent passing attack should be able to stretch the field and free up some quick passes and trick-runs. Now that this is at +7.5, it’s passing into disrespectful territory and TCU will be plenty motivated to prove they can hang with a big dog like Texas.
UFC 281 (13-15, +10.38 units in 2022):
Ulberg/Negumereanu goes the distance (+150), to win 1.5 units
Carlos Puelles (+132), to win 1.32 units
Michael Chandler (+185), to win 1.85 units
Molly McCann by KO, TKO, or DQ (+650), to win 3.25 units
Alex Pereira to win by majority or split decision (+2200), to win 11 units
Last week I loved Liberty vs Arkansas and that money-line sprinkle was even nicer than the LSU one, but now it’s time to fade city. This is a bad spot for Liberty coming off such a massive win for the program and UCONN is waiting to make a statement on their own. This Huskie’s team under the leadership of Jim Mora isn’t exactly a juggernaut by any means, but they at least greatly improved from last year at -1.88 yards per play to just -.76 yards per play. Liberty on the other hand has only 1 loss this year in a close one to Wake Forest, but most of their schedule has been pretty easy and they are only a net positive .89 yards per play themsleves. Liberty wins with great defense, and that showed in the first half last week, but on offense they only rank 101st in success rate and 86th in offensive EPA. UCONN has already had some big wins themselves this year vs Fresno State and Boston College. I think that Liberty in a let down spot is very venerable here. Dogs of 14 or more with a total of 46 or less are 279-232 or 54.6 % which goes in the way that I am betting this game.
Take the Huskies +14 – 2.5 stars
Oklahoma vs West Virginia +7.5 O/U 66
What is a good breakfast food that people love to put butter on top of? The answer is Oklahoma, because that team is now toast after losing last week to Baylor. Why is Oklahoma even favored by this much away from home? What has Brett Venebles done to deserve this? Oklahoma ranks 82nd in defensive success rate. Hardly a good matchup against an offensive oriented Mountaineers team. West Virginia’s weakness is against the pass ranking 102nd in success rate, but Oklahoma isn’t exactly lighting it up themselves ranking 51st in passing yards per attempt. West Virginia can win out to make a bowl game here while Oklahoma might only care about beating their in state rival next week in Oklahoma State. Oklahoma only has a 1.03 net yards per play advantage over West Virginia and might struggle so far away from home. Oklahoma also has Oklahoma State on deck which they probably care about more. Take the Mountaineers.
West Virginia +7.5 – 2 stars – 1 Star ML +260
Georgia vs Mississippi State +16.5 O/U 53.5
This is a bad spot for Georgia and if there is a flat spot on their schedule, it’s this week.
Last week, all of Auburn’s yards to get close to Mississippi State were in garbage time.
Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Wait for a 17 or buy it for 10 cents.
Mississippi State +17 -120 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 6-3 in the high participant Double-Ups. Taylor Heinecke was not the answer last week.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Patrick Mahomes, QB: $7,900. I’m not usually big on spending this much on a QB, but the weather has officially gotten colder across much of the country and that usually means a small drop-off in passing attacks even in the NFL. Andy Reid has this offense dialed in through the air with Mahomes averaging 2.5 Passing TDs and 375 yards per game across his last four contests. That’s against the Bills, Titans, 49ers and Raiders. Not exactly the worst NFL defenses. My only concern here is the Chiefs get up big early and turn to the running game more in the second half. We won’t see 68 pass attempts in this one.
David Montgomery, RB: $6,000. If there’s a game the Bears running game not named Justin Fields breaks out, this is it. Outside of facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the Lions defense is allowing over 150 rushing yards per game, mostly to traditional rushing attacks. Montgomery only has more than 15 totes one time this year, but he should be heavily featured in the attack on Sunday and can hopefully find the endzone.
Saquon Barkley, RB: $8,600. Barkley has only touched the ball less than 20 times in a game twice on the season. Both in contests that the Giants were playing from behind more than a score. He is averaging over 20 FPPG in DK format. The Texans are the worst defense against the run and it is not close. They are allowing 180.6 yards per game on the ground. That’s more than 30 yards more per game than the Lions who are 31st against the run.
Christian Kirk, WR: $5,900. Kirk has 8.7 Targets per game over his last three contests. I expect the Jags to have to throw the ball to catch-up so look for some points especially in the second half. The Chiefs are 24th in passing yards allowed so there is opportunity here.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR: $6,000. With Mecole Hardman out I expect to see a little more from MVS and Skyy Moore, but mostly I expect it to mean extra targets for JuJu and Travis Kelce. While I can’t afford Kelce with this lineup build, I can get JuJu. I’d expect double digit targets, high yards and a score in this one from JuJu.
Rondale Moore, WR: $5,200. As teams have tried to roll more coverage to Deandre Hopkins the last two games, Rondale Moore has been the main benefactor in the passing game. He has 18 targets the last two weeks. He hauled in 15 for 161 yards and a score in those two games. The Rams have regressed to the middle of the pack in passing defense this year and are getting less pressure on opposing QBs averaging only two sacks per game. If Kyler Murray has time he’s deadly and not just in Call of Duty. Make sure Murray is playing as he does have a hamstring injury before you green light this play.
Tyler Higbee, TE: $3,600. Well the Rams get the Cardinals Sunday. The Rams do have Cooper Kupp, but the second option for them should be Higbee. This Cardinals defense just got steam rolled by Noah Fant last week and Higbee can run circles around him. The Cards are 31st in the league in fantasy points allowed to Tight Ends so this one is a no-brainer at this price.
Jarvis Landry, Flex: $4,500. Landry returns for the Saints at the same time as T.J. Watt does for the Steelers. If there’s one thing I know about the Steelers defense when Watt is healthy its that they will get to the QB. Landry typically plays from the slot, so I expect some quick patterns to keep the pressure off Andy Dalton.
Minnesota, DEF: $2,200. Needed to find some value here. The weather is 35 degrees with possible snow/sleet and 10-20 mph winds. Taking a flyer on the Vikings as I don’t think Josh Allen will play. While Case Keenum is certainly capable of putting up a decent game against this rough Vikings secondary, I don’t see a huge game from him. He also is prone to making the occasional mistake and turn the ball over.
