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Week 4 CFB Best Bets

By
Michael Fordham
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I’ve been mediocre out of the gates in CFB(13-15, -2.14u), but if history is correct(55%, +27.35u in CFB last year), we’ll be just alright.

I want to give you 4 plays out of the gate for Week 4 but will follow up this evening with some additional 1u plays. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1.5u): Clemson -7 @ Wake Forest–Sat 9/24; 11 AM CT

Fun Fact: Over the last 5 seasons, Clemson has beaten Wake Forest by an average of 34 PPG. I won’t hold my breath expecting this one to play out any differently.

I have been the first guy to admit that Clemson needs to make a change at QB away from DJ Uiagalelei, and I still believe that move will be made this season. However, this is not a matchup where I expect that to be necessary. Clemson is going to be able to establish their run game behind RB Will Shipley(career 5.7 YPC) against this porous Wake Forest run defense that has been a liability for years. Vanderbilt and Liberty had no trouble doing so; in fact, Liberty out-gained Wake Forest by almost 100 yards last week and should’ve walked out of Winston-Salem with a win. From there, I think the opportunities for Uiagalelei will open up similar to how it did last year when Clemson eviscerated Wake Forest for 48 points.

Wake Forest has an incredibly unbalanced and predictable offense given they have shown no ability to establish any sort of run game; against Liberty, their RB’s combined for just 12 yards on 14 carries. How do you think that translates against a Top 5 defense in America with one of the best front 4’s in College Football? QB Sam Hartman is a pretty experienced player at this point, but he is far less efficient than people think(58%, 8 Y/A over his career). Clemson might be content with playing a “bend don’t break” style in their secondary, but ultimately, Hartman cannot carry this offense single-handedly over a 60 minute game. He threw 14 INT’s a year ago, and I’d bet you we see multiple in this one. Clemson is likely to welcome back Bryan Breese and/or Xavier Thomas this week, making a great front 4 even more of a strength against this vulnerable Wake Forest OL.

*CFB(1.5u): TCU/SMU OVER 70.5–Sat 9/24; 11 AM CT

Both of these squads have major holes defensively that I believe haven’t been fully exploited yet. TCU has been fortunate to draw Colorado and Tarleton State, but they rank 80th by my defensive efficiency metrics coming into this matchup. I expect their Front 4 to get swallowed up by a strong SMU OL and think that, outside of their first-team All Big12 CB, they are very attackable in their Back 7. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai is an incredibly experienced player that is fit to run Garrett Riley’s fast-paced system. The passing game gets a lot of love(rightfully so), but SMU has multiple RB’s that are 5+ YPC caliber. 

It is uncertain whether TCU QB Chandler Morris will be healthy enough to go, but Max Duggan might be the better option regardless given his ability as a dual-threat. Duggan threw for 9 Y/A last year and is in his 4th year as a starter; either option is perfectly adequate to put up points in this matchup. The Frogs have tons of deep play potential on the outside led by WR Quentin Johnson and have allowed just 1 sack this season. SMU was shredded against the run vs Maryland last week and rank just 68th by my defensive efficiency metrics. TCU RB Kendre Miller has run for 7.2 YPC over the course of his career, meaning TCU can create explosive plays in a variety of ways.

In summary, there is lots of experience at key positions offensively(QB, OL) and 2 offensive-first coaching staffs. This should be a high-possession game that, when combined with the expected efficiency, should lead to a classic shootout.

*CFB(1.5u): Minnesota/Michigan State OVER 51–Sat 9/24; 2:30 PM CT

Minnesota bringing back OC Kirk Ciarrocca completely changes the dynamics of this offense. Under him, the Gophers were a Top 10 offense in America back in 2019, and I think this 2022 version could display an even greater deal of efficiency. QB Tanner Morgan is now a 5th year starter that had a career year in this system back in 2019(10.3 Y/A, 28 TD vs 6 INT). This year, his Y/A has climbed all the way up to 11.7. Michigan State had one of the worst pass defenses in America a year ago, and the fact they just got shredded for 391 yards by Michael Penix last week inspires no confidence that Mel Tucker has fixed those issues. However, I believe Minnesota’s RB corps is really what takes them to the next level. Mohamed Ibrahim(career 5.5 YPC) is back healthy and has already run for 464 yards this year; he is joined by a slew of other quality backs that form what could be the deepest RB room in all of CFB. I believe this offense can impose their will in the run game on virtually anybody. 

Michigan State failed to establish any sort of run game against Washington last week, but I thought QB Payton Thorne responded to that disadvantage quite well. The Spartans are expected to welcome back their Top WR Jayden Reed this week, but even if he doesn’t play, I like Sparty’s chances of moving the ball in this one. By nature of playing 3 nobodies, we have yet to see Minnesota’s defense get tested this year. I liked their D last year, but they lost a lot of production at some key spots(specifically at DL and secondary). Michigan State has starting experience across the board along their OL and think they can beat Minnesota up front. While the RB’s struggled last week, both Broussard and Berger are above 5 YPC throughout their career. Thorne is an 8.5 Y/A guy that I believe is fully capable of taking advantage of a Minnesota defense that is still being priced according to what they were last season.

Ultimately, Minnesota’s massive increase in pace is enough to make this a multi-unit play.

*CFB(1u): Notre Dame +2 @ North Carolina–Sat 9/24: 2:30 PM CT

Many would lead you to believe that this is an offensive mismatch, but the far bigger mismatch falls on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame has a borderline Top 10 defensive in America that held Ohio State to just 21 points, while North Carolina ranks 112th by my defensive efficiency metrics coming into this spot.

North Carolina’s biggest weakness offensively(BY FAR) is in pass protection. It is why they went 6-7 last year even with a QB as dynamic as Sam Howell, and it has remained a problem here in 2022. Coincidentally, Notre Dame’s strength defensively is in their pass rush, making this a total and utter mismatch up front. UNC QB Drake Maye has looked the part through 3 games, but it’s also worth noting that he’s drawn an incredible amount of praise for lighting up G5 teams like App State and Georgia State. This is by far the best secondary he’s gone up against and just an overall major step up in competition. I can’t emphasize enough how poor I expect UNC’s offensive line to be in this matchup.

I’m not here to defend Notre Dame’s offense(I’ve been critical of it since July), but this is easily their most manageable matchup of the season. They’ve had to go up against Top 35 defenses in Ohio State and Cal; shoot, even Marshall has an above average defense. North Carolina allowed 61 points to App State and were lucky to escape Atlanta with only 28 points allowed against Georgia State. The Irish are solid along their OL and will match up with a Tar Heel DL that has struggled to create any sort of pass rush in 2022. Teams have also had their way establishing the run on UNC, and their young secondary has shown to be very vulnerable early in the season.

I had the same reaction to this line upon first glance that I’m betting many of you did. However, upon handicapping this game, I would go as far as to say the wrong team is favored. 1 more point: You could argue that Mack Brown is the far better coach than Marcus Freeman, and historically you’d obviously be correct. But, are we sure that 2022 Mack Brown should be thought of in the same light as 2005 Mack Brown? Either way, I like Notre Dame to win this game outright but will take any points the oddsmakers give me.

College Football Week 4 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Injuries:

  • Jordan Travis for Florida State on crutches.  Week to week at best.
  • Fresno State QB Jake Haener carted off in the USC game.
  • Minnesota WR Chris Autman-Bell is out for the season.  Lower leg.
  • Syracuse WR Isaiah Jones out for the season.
  • NIU QB Rocky Lombardi might miss time.
  • Michigan QB Cade McNamara is out a few weeks.

Let Down Spots:

  • Tulane hosting Southern Miss after winning at Kansas State is one.
  • Kansas hosting Duke after beating Houston is possible.
  • Bowling Green at Mississippi state after beating Marshall could be a snoozer.
  • Charlotte could sleep at South Carolina after beating Georgia State.
  • I don’t know how Troy get’s up for Marshall after that loss.
  • Eastern Michigan hosting Buffalo after beating ASU outright.

Get up Spots:

  • Mississippi state will want to beat down Bowling green after losing at LSU.
  • South Carolina will want to beat down Charlotte after losing like that to Georgia.
  • ASU fired coach Herm Edwards which gives them a bump here vs Utah.

Look ahead spots:

  • Illinois looking past Chattanooga to Wisconsin is one.
  • Missouri looking past Auburn to Georgia is possible.
  • NC State looking past UCONN to Clemson is one.
  • Kentucky looking past Northern Illinois to Ole Miss is possible.
  • Utah State looking past UNLV to BYU is on.
  • Rutgers looking past Iowa to to Ohio State is possible.
  • NC State looking past UCONN to Clemson is live.

CFB Week 4 Picks and VERY Early UFC 280 Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
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CFB Week 4 (14-16-2, -5.08 units):
 
Georgia State +2 (-110), to win 1 unit
A year off seems to be a good thing for Coastal Carolina as they come into this contest 3-0. Meanwhile Georgia State is 0-3 and yet this is still a short number. Why? Because the books know that Georgia State can and probably will win this game. An intra-conference matchup at home, this is a good spot for the Panthers to get a win and they’ve been very competitive against much better teams so far, so don’t be deterred by their record.
 
Michigan -16.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen this story over and over again and while MD looks pretty good this year, they almost always do before they take on a big dog. And historically they SUCK when they take on an elite team like Michigan. The Wolverines’ offense is exciting this year and while their defense may not be as proficient, I think they’ll look like the old Michigan defense on Saturday.
Georgia -45 (-110), to win 1.5 units
It’s an insane line but this is an insanely good Georgia team who does NOT want to lose their #1 ranking. How is Kent State going to score? Miracles happen, but I’ll count on the Bulldogs crushing their low-level opponent at home.
Temple -9 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Ugly ugly I know, but Temple has a better defense than people think and they’re facing one of the worst teams in college football. Nice spot at home. Low unit play for obvious reasons– it’s Temple.
North Carolina -1.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Time to fade Notre Dame. As a fan it’s been brutal seeing this team underwhelm year after year but this season may be the most underwhelming of all. Their defense is bend don’t break but the only problem is that they break pretty fucking often. I don’t think they can keep up with the Tar Heels offense if they get going. And at home, the probabilities suggest that their offense will get going.
Florida +10.5 (-104), to win 2 units
This is just a numbers play. The Volunteers have looked good and I realize Florida has tripped over themselves already, they’re just not as sharp yet and it showed against Kentucky and South Florida, but this is a game they get UP for (they’ve won 16 of the last 17) and it hasn’t mattered how much “better” the Volunteers have been in the past, either. Brad Powers’ numbers, which go back to 1976, Tennessee has NEVER been favored by more than a touchdown against the Gators. Take advantage.
USC -6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This hasn’t disappointed yet and we’ll keep playing on the Trojans as long as we see value. The Beavers are fiesty for sure but I don’t see them hanging.
 

UFC 280 on Oct 22nd, (12-12, +11.88 units in 2022):


Islam Makhachev (-150), to win 2.5 units

Under 2.5 rounds (+125), to win 1.25 units
Watch this video and just TRY not to get excited about this main event. One of the biggest cards in years and one of the best fights I can remember, two perceived prodigies face off on October 22nd, one day before my birthday, and needless to say I’m fucking pumped. Charles Oliveira deserves everything he’s gotten, but this is Islam’s time to shine. Islam may be legitimately unbeatable. I realize that Oliveira can take punishment like no one’s business and he just continues to prove doubters wrong, maybe he does it again here, but I’m willing to bet a lot that he does not. Islam is Khabib 2.0 and Khabib is literally the best UFC fighter of all time so, that’s a rather scary prospect. He defends himself perfectly, he has an immeasurable gas tank, he has that weird, rare power that comes from seemingly nowhere and he WILL take down Oliveira. I’m also betting he wins by points or wins later in the fight after he wears down Oliveira.
 
TJ Dillashaw (+140), to win 2.8 units
Sorry not sorry, I like Aljamain Sterling isn’t as sharp as he thinks he is, though defeating Peter Yan was one hell of a win. Although, according to most experts and definitely in my opinion, Yan should have won that fight. Now Sterling waltzes into this contest probably thinking he’s the man. I love TJ to show him emphatically that he is NOT. Dillashaw has one of the best gas tanks in the UFC and while his suspension took him out of the game for a while, he got warmed up again with a nice split decision win against the elite Cory Sandhagen. Many forget how dominant and overwhelming TJ was in his prime – I do not. Dude is still only 36 years old and he’s probably healthier than he’s been in a long time. Dillashaw for the win.

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, September 24th

By
Nick Hub
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We are back for a new week with a free premium!! We are 12-9 57% (+$740, +1.8% CLV)  in College Football and we have a a large card for this week! Get every play below. Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The South Florida Bulls head to Kentucky to take on the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. As a 24.5 point dog, the Bulls are coming off a hard fought game last week against their instate rival, Florida Gators, losing 31-28. Louisville is also coming off a tough loss to Florida St after they fell 35-31. Through 3 games, the Cardinals are averaging just 19.3 points per game but that was against opponents that have collectively given up 17.2 points per game on average. They will gracefully welcome the Bulls defense who has given up 33.7 points per game, through 3 games as well. USF runs the ball 53.8% of their plays and are gaining 5.98 yards per rush (11th best in the nation) and they will be going up against Louisville’s 126th ranked defensive rushing plays success rate. The Bulls will thrive on the ground in this one. On the other side, the Cardinals will fare better on offense in this one as well since they will be going up against the 96th ranked USF defensive success rate. Additionally, both defenses rank in the bottom 3rd of the nation according to PFF. Louisville compiled 495 yards while scoring 31 points against the #9 defense (Florida St) against defending explosive plays. There will be more opportunity this week and I expect the Cardinals to make more plays down field against the 76th ranked team on giving up plays of 30 yards or more. Take Over 63.5 for 0.5% of your bankroll

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

College Football Week 3 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Louisville out-gained Florida State 495 to 455 yet lost 31-35.  A 3-2 turnover ratio hurt.

Purdue outgained Syracuse 485 to 306 yet lost 32-29.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and 13 penalties for 138 yards killed them.   Poor officiating.

Western Kentucky out-gained Indiana 545 to 484 yet lost 33-30 in overtime.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and dirty officiating killed WKU.

Virginia out-gained Old Dominion 513 to 235 yet only won 16-14.   A 3-1 turnover ratio hurt.

Temple out-gained Rutgers 264 to 191 yet lost 16-14.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and horrible 3rd down efficiency got them.

Georgia southern out-gained UAB 417 to 413 yet lost 35 to 21.   A 3-0 turnover ratio and not beating Nebraska by enough points last week did them in.

Houston out-gained Kansas 446 to 438 yet lost 48-30.  A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt them as well as 10 penalties.

Liberty out-gained Wake Forest 437 to 346 yet lost 37-36.   A 4-2 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency hurt them.

Marshall out-gained Bowling Green 547 to 377 yet lost in OT 34-31.  A 3-0 turnover ratio hurt.

SMU outgained Maryland 518 to 439 yet lost 34-27.   A 3-2 turnover ratio and bad red zone got them bad.

South Florida out-gained Florida 402 to 329 yet lost 31-28.   A 3-2 turnover ratio and 9 penalties hurt them.

Texas Tech out-gained NC State 353 to 270 yet lost 27-14.  A 4-1 turnover ratio smoked them.  Bad quarterback play.  Plain and simple.

Texas only out-gained UTSA 459 to 408 yet won 41-20.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 4th down efficiency got UTSA.   10 points in the 4th scored by Texas to get the cover.

Utep out-gained New Mexico 350 to 298 yet lost 27-10.  A 7-2 turnover ratio destroyed them.

Miami out-gained Texas A&M 392 to 264 yet lost 17-9.  Bad special teams and bad red zone efficiency killed the Canes.

 

 

 

Fantasy Football Week 3

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Key Injuries:

  • QB Justin Herbert has torn cartilage in ribs.  Week to week.
  • QB Trey Lance tore his achilles, out for season.
  • RB James Conner sprained his ankle and day to day.
  • WR Jerry Jeudy hurt his shoulder and is day to day.
  • TE Tyler Kroft hurt his knee for the 49ers but Kittle might be back.
  • WR Mike Evans suspended 1 game.  He is appealing.
  • WR Chris Godwin might still be out.
  • WR Julio Jones might still be out.
  • TE Dalton Schultz with an ankle and day to day.
  • RB Alvin Kamara didn’t play.

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Darrel Williams for the Conner injury.
  • RB Eno Benjamin for the Conner injury.
  • RB Raheem Mostert might take over lead back.
  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the Lance injury and huge upside.
  • QB Joe Flacco is looking like he might keep the job if all goes well.
  • QB Jacoby Brissett is looking ok himself.
  • RB Jerick McKinnon played 39% of snaps.
  • WR Garrett Wilson has been a beast with 154 yards and 2 TDs.
  • TE Logan Thomas looks good again for now.

Non-starters trending up for Week 3:

  • WR Adam Theilen vs the Lions will have a good game.
  • WR Allen Robinson vs the horrible Cardinals D.
  • RB Cam Akers against the terrible Cardinals as well.
  • WR Russell Gage vs the Packers.
  • WR Amari Cooper vs Pittsburgh’s pass D.
  • WR Robert Woods vs the Raiders pass D.
  • WR Russell Gage vs the Packers D.
  • WR Scotty Miller vs the Packers D.   (Just like in that playoff game baby)
  • TE Cameron Brate vs the Packers D.
  • RB Dameon Pierce vs Chicago’s bad run D.
  • QB Justin Fields against Houston’s bad D.
  • RB JD McKissic vs the Eagles will get some points.
  • WR Drake London vs the Seahawks looks good.

Busts:

  • RB Chase Edmonds vs Buffalo’s D is a bust.
  • RB Melvin Gordon vs San Francisco’s D is tough.
  • RB Aaron Jones vs the Buccaneers is tough.
  • RB Christian McCaffery is a bust.
  • QB Russell Wilson vs San Fransico’s D is hard.
  • QB Jameis Winston vs Carolina’s D is questionable.
  • QB Tom Brady vs Green Bay’s D won’t be good if none of his WRs are healthy

Nasty Sleeper:  WR Robert Woods.   I think he has a great game vs the Raiders here.

 

September 20th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I hold a record of 159-146-6, +6.32u in MLB this year and am rolling with 2 plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rangers TT OVER 3.5(-135) vs Angels–7:05 PM CT

The Rangers have been elite against left-handed pitching at Globe Life Field, holding a league-high 172 wRC+ in this role since July 1st. Angels SP Patrick Sandoval has been a guy I’ve looked for chances to fade all season. His 2.99 ERA is incredibly deceiving when you factor in his 1.35 WHIP. Sandoval gives up right around 1 hit per inning while simultaneously struggling with control; the Rangers have proven time and time again that they step up well against these vulnerable lefty arms.

This Angels bullpen is incredibly mediocre, perhaps more so than their overall season numbers would indicate. I was priced out of isolating this TT in the F5(I’m not going to lay -155), but I feel comfortable trusting the Rangers over the full game. If Sandoval were priced according more to his WHIP, we wouldn’t be getting this at 3.5.

*MLB(1u): Royals F5 ML(-110) vs Twins–7:10 PM CT

For as bad as Zack Greinke has been on the road, he has been utterly impeccable at Kauffman Stadium this season(1.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.1 HR/9). He’ll face a Twins lineup that has to be utterly demoralized after losing 4 out of 5 to the Guardians over the weekend and virtually eliminating them from the playoff race. Handicapping motivation in baseball is usually a waste of time, but if there were ever a massive let down spot, it would be here.

Twins SP Dylan Bundy is perhaps the most hit-or-miss SP in baseball. He has been particularly inconsistent on the road(5.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9) and now has to face the same lineup for the second straight start. Conditions will play favorably for more runs tonight, which hurts the fly ball pitcher that has struggled with the long ball more than it does Greinke.

Given the Royals hold far-and-away the worst bullpen numbers in baseball, there is no reason to play this over the full game. Isolate the F5 and trust Greinke in a role he’s excelled in all year.

Podcast 61 – 22 – College Football Week 3 and NFL Week 2 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 3 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football!  First, Kiev talks about the good, the bad, and the ugly from the weekend.  Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots.  Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 3!  Finally, Kiev and D-Nasty get into fantasy football with their key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend!  Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag?  Or just want us to break down a game?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

September 19th MLB Play

By
Michael Fordham
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I am on an 11-5 run in MLB and see my season record sit at 159-145-6, +7.52u. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rays F5 ML(-120) vs Astros–5:40 PM CT

Rays SP Drew Rasmussen has been absolutely impeccable at Tropicana Field this year, bringing a 1.97 ERA and 0.80 WHIP into tonight’s start. The Astros struggle in this role a lot more than people would expect; since July 1st, the ‘Stros hold a below average 94 wRC+ vs righties on the road. They did look good at the plate against this weekend against the A’s pitching staff, but history proves that’s not a good barometer of where an offense is at. Just last month, the Astros swept the A’s at home only to lose the first 2 games of their ensuing series in Chicago against the White Sox.

Astros SP Luis Garcia is a better arm than his 4.04 ERA would indicate, but he’s still at a disadvantage in this matchup. Garcia has just been slightly off all season; he’s struggled with allowing the long ball at home while struggling with this command(3.2 BB/9) on the road. This Rays offense was mediocre for most of the season but have steadily improved throughout the course of the summer. Since July 1st, the Rays hold a solid 113 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark.

The Rays dug deep into their bullpen this weekend and are at a slight disadvantage even when at full strength vs Houston’s deep bullpen. As such, I’ll isolate this one in the F5.

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