Coming off a 4-3-1, +1.25u Week 6, all eyes are ahead to Week 7!
I currently have 3 plays locked in for this Week 7 slate but will follow up with more plays in another post tomorrow. I’ll more than likely add more on Friday night/Saturday morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Baylor -3.5 @ West Virginia–Thursday 6 PM CT
I released this on Tuesday night and made a complementary video on YouTube for my analysis.
*CFB(1u): Memphis/East Carolina OVER 58–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
With the pace each of these teams run at, the defensive issues on each side, as well as the history of these QB’s, I have a hard time seeing this game stay Under the total.
Memphis had last week’s game against Houston all but wrapped up before yielding a late comeback to the Cougars. Even so, they put up 33 points in that spot and worked around a brutal matchup facing arguably the best pass rushing unit in the American Athletic. QB Sean Henigan is over 8 Y/A throughout his young career; while the consistency hasn’t been where you’d want it to be this year, he is more than capable of taking advantage of this ECU defense. The Pirates might’ve only allowed 24 points last week to Tulane, but Michael Pratt really picked on their secondary to the tune of 9.6 Y/A. Old Dominion QB Hayden Wolff put up a similar figure vs ECU earlier this season, and even Campbell’s QB threw for 7.9 Y/A. Memphis’s OL will have a much easier time protecting Henigan in this matchup which should allow the talented sophomore to shine.
East Carolina’s offense thrives off of balance. QB Holton Ahlers has already thrown for 16 TD’s on the young season, but it really starts with the ECU run game. Keaton Mitchell has had another phenomenal season, running for 7.6 YPC here in ‘22 after running for 6.5 YPC last season. Mitchell faced a tough matchup against Tulane last weekend(look at what the Green Wave did to Kansas State’s rushing attack), but this is the exact type of matchup where Mitchell makes his money. Memphis’s front 4 has been particularly concerning here in 2022; they’ve allowed offenses like Arkansas State and North Texas to have their way and get into the 30’s. Ahlers is a 5th year player that will thrive in this matchup once the run game is established.
*CFB(1u): Utah -3.5 vs USC–Saturday 7 PM CT
USC remains undefeated, but I still have some pretty big concerns about this team, mainly on the defensive side of the ball. Sentiment is low on Utah after they lost in the Rose Bowl last week, but that has not swayed how I view this matchup. Utah QB Cam Rising is a great fit for their system, holding a 4:1 TD/INT ratio during his time as a Ute. Still, Utah’s offense is predicated on establishing the ground game with Tavion Thomas. While the Utah rushing attack has taken a step back this year, I was encouraged to see Thomas stay above 5 YPC against UCLA last week. USC’s clear strength defensively is their pass rush, but I don’t think that will be showcased as well in this matchup as it would be facing an offense that features more slow developing plays. USC has routinely allowed inferior competition to establish the run, and I have little faith their secondary will consistently come out on top against an experienced Utah WR/TE core that has a lot of continuity within this offense.
There aren’t very many players in CFB with more upside than Caleb Williams. With that said, the sophomore is far from consistent. He played losing football in his only other true road test this season(44%, 5 Y/A at Oregon State) and didn’t play particularly well against a good Washington State defense last week(52%, 6.5 Y/A). This is clearly the toughest matchup of the season for him, and I think we see Williams make quite a few mistakes. USC RB Travis Dye is the best player week-in and week-out Lincoln Riley has right now, but ultimately, this game will fall on Williams’ arm. I know how much talent USC has out wide(although Jordan Addison is not 100% entering this matchup), but Utah’s strength of their defense is their secondary. This will also be the biggest test to date for USC’s OL.
Playing on the road in Salt Lake City is a challenge I believe a team of “ringers” like USC is not suited well for. This is truly a clash of styles matchup between a team built through the Transfer Portal and an experienced team that’s been developed in the same program for years. I’m not concerned as to how Utah’s 2 losses figure into this matchup; quite frankly, I think this is a game the Utes pull away in and win by 2 scores.
After a 7-2 week in CFB, we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 29-19 60% (+$4,565) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 1 more game on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Nebraska Cornhuskers travel to Indiana to take on the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday night. The Cornhuskers enter with a 3-3 record (1-5 ATS) after pulling out a victory by 1 points at Rutgers last week while the Boilermakers enter with a better strength of schedule and are 4-2 (3-3 ATS) after beating Maryland last week 31-29. Nebraska has lost to Northwestern, Georgia Southern and were blown out by Oklahoma while Purdue has lost their 2 games to ranked Penn State and Syracuse but a combined 7 points. Both offenses are similar in success rate stats but the Nebraska defense ranks 107th in success rate while Purdue’s D ranks 13th. Nebraska runs the ball 56% of their plays and come in averaging 3.94 YPR (88th) but they will be up against the Boilermakers rush defense that gives up just 2.95 YPR (14th). On the other side, Purdue passes the football in 58.1% of their plays (9th most) and enter with 300.5 passing YPG (20th) and will have the honor of going against the Nebraska defense that gives up 263 passing yards per game (106th). Although Purdue has not beaten anyone this season by more than 10 (a ranked Minnesota squad), other than Indiana St, this shapes up to have the recipe of 2-3 touchdown victory for the Boilermakers. It is also worth mentioning that this will be the best defense that Nebraska will have faced all season to this point. Take Purdue -13.5
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
What a great opening night! The NHL rolls on today with a six-game slate but features no real marquee matchups.
Game Previews:
Boston Bruins @ Washington Capitals
The Bruins come into this season with a depleted roster. They’ll be without Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk tonight. Despite missing a few key pieces, the Bruins still have a deep team with some great goaltending. The Capitals also dealing with injury issues of their own. Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and Carl Hagelin are all out for tonight’s matchup. In net, Darcy Kuemper will make his debut as a member of the Washington Capitals.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens
The Leafs open up the season against a division rival. They’ve made a few changes during the off-season but mainly their goaltending. Toronto brought in Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov as replacements for Jack Campbell. Martin St. Louis will have his first full season as head coach of the Montreal Canadiens. Last year, he was able to provide some confidence for their young stars. Overall it’s a rebuilding year for the Habs as they look to fully evaluate all the talent they have on their roster.
Chicago Blackhawks @ Colorado Avalanche
The Av’s open their season against arguably the worst team in the NHL. Unless they have a severe Stanley Cup hangover, they should dominie Chicago tonight.
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Carolina Hurricanes
The Blue Jackets made one of the biggest offseason moves landing Johnny Gaudreau. While this team did add an elite player maker, they still have a sub-par defensive unit. The Canes added a few pieces as well including veteran defenseman Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty. Carolina has built a roster that’s ready to make a push for the Stanley Cup while the Blue Jackets still have a few pieces to go.
Official Picks:
Boston Bruins/ Washington Capitals Under 6.0 (+100) – Caesars/ BetMGM
Risk 0.50 to win 0.50 Units
I think we see a low-scoring affair between these depleted rosters. The Bruins are going with Swayman while the Capitals will have Kuemper in net. Both of these goaltenders were great last year ranking inside the top 23 in Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Taylor Hall and T.J Oshie are also both game-time decisions that could limit each team’s offensive production. Last year, the Bruins and Capitals both ranked inside the top 13 in goals against. While two of their three meetings last year did go over, I believe it’s a different story tonight.
Mitchell Marner over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
He went over this number in all four of their matchups against the Canadiens last season. Montreal also allowed the 28th most shots on goal to right-wingers last year.
Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-155) – DraftKings
He went over this number in two of their three matchups against the Canucks last season. Vancouver also allowed the 25th most shots on goal to Centers last year.
Patrick Laine over 0.5 Points (-155) – DraftKings
He went over this number in two of their four matchups against the Hurricanes last season. With the addition of Johnny Gaudreau on his line, they should be able to create even more scoring opportunities. Laine is also on their top Power Play which should have several opportunities tonight as Carolina had the 10th most penalty minutes as a team last year.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Also, baseball, I still hate you. I have a personal parlay on every home favorite winning besides the Braves today (so Astros/Yankees/Dodgers), but it’s not an official premium pick and if you choose to trail, do it lightly. I’m just using bonus credits.
Here’s our preseason play:
Hornets +8.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
The Hornets are 0-3 in the preseason and therefore have slightly more incentive to play harder tonight. We saw it in our Magic play yesterday, and 8.5 is just way too many points for an exhibition game. Also, this figures that Philly is feeling good and playing well in the preseason (SOFT, YAWN), but it doesn’t mean much of anything. If the young talent on Charlotte punches back and punches early, the Sixers will probably take their collective feet off the gas. After all, IT’S THE PRESEASON. Let’s make it 3-0!
Nevada out-gained Colorado State 358 to 253 yet lost 17-14. They won the turnover battle as well but just had very bad field position and red zone efficiency.
Kansas out-gained TCU 540 to 452 yet lost 38-31. Equal turnovers and just horrible tackling got Kansas. They also had some bs calls go against them.
Texas Tech out-gained Oklahoma State 527 to 434 yet lost 41-31. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad special teams hurt them.
Northern Illinois yards were mainly garbage.
Central Michigan out-gained Ball State 340 to 250 yet lost 17-16. Equal turnovers and terrible red zone efficiency hurt the Chippewas.
Miami out-gained North Carolina 538 to 470 yet lost 27-24. Equal turnovers but bad 3rd and 4th down efficiency hurt Miami. Field position was bad.
Washington out-gained Arizona State 458 to 397 yet lost 45-38. Equal turnovers, but bad red zone efficiency hurt the Huskies.
Appalachian State’s yards were garbage after falling way behind to Texas State.
FIU’s yards were garbage vs UCONN.
Kansas State out-gained Iowa State 388 to 276 yet only won 10-9. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency hurt them.
USC only out-gained Washington State 369 to 316 yet won 30-14. Poor officiating and 5 nasty sacks taken by the Cougs hurt them. Bad 3rd down efficiency as well.
Florida State out-gained NC State 387 to 307 yet lost 19-17. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley goes over every single NFL game every single week in preparation for the weekend slate, and this week he’s joined by Michael Neubert! Michael is co-founder of Sports Wagering University and has a ticket in this year’s Circa Sports Million! Get ready for your Week 6 bets with Chris and Michael!
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
Tom Kim rides the momentum from the Presidents Cup and wins the Shriners Children’s Open. He became the first player since Tiger Woods to win twice on the PGA Tour before turning 21. What’s even more impressive is that he failed to record a single bogey all tournament.
The 4th edition Zozo Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 4th edition, this will only be the third time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the Zozo Championship took place in California due to the pandemic travel restrictions.
The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!!
The Zozo Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.
Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Just three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.
Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.
The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.
Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.
The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.
No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.
The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).
No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
This week’s event will feature a 78-player field with no cut. The field is comprised of the top 60 PGA Tour players from the previous season’s FedEx Cup standings, the top 7 players on the Japan Golf Tour money list, the top 3 players at the Bridgestone Open, and 8 sponsor exemptions.
Xander Schauffele (+800), has finished T10 and T28 in the two times he’s played in this tournament held at this course. He’ll be making his first start of the season this week. Xander’s last start was at the TOUR Championship where he finished 4th. He played at the President’s Cup and secured 3 points for the US side.
Sungjae Im (+1100), finished 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. He finished T3 at this event back in 2019 but did not play last year.
Tom Kim (+1400), has been on an absolute heater lately. He put on an absolute show at the President’s Cup and won the Shriners Children’s Open. Tom will be making his Zozo Championship debut this week.
Collin Morikawa (+1600), finished T22 in 2019 and followed that up by finishing T7 last year in this event. He’ll be making his first start of the season after a disappointing year, failing to win a single event.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), is the defending champion of the Zozo Championship. In 2019, he finished 2nd so he has thrived at this venue. He has competed in one event this season and finished T25 at the Fortinet Championship.
Previous Winners in the field: Hideki Matsuyama (’21)
Notable Withdraws: Aaron Wise
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses (2019/2021):
Hideki Matsuyama (+): 2/ 1
Corey Conners: T6/ DNP
Sungjae Im: T3/ DNP
Keegan Bradley: T13/ T7
Xander Schauffle: T10/ T28
Collin Morikawa: T22/ T7
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Sungjae Im has been trending towards a win for a while now and this event seems like a great spot for him to finally break through. He made his first start of the season last week at TPC Summerlin where he finished 7th. Im has played in the Zozo Championship twice before but only once at this course. In 2019, he finished T3.
While the official yardage of the course isn’t overly long, distance does play a huge factor here. Im’s great tee game combined with elite iron play makes him a great player to target this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) – Draftkings
Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
In terms of course history, there’s no one better. In 2019, he finished 2nd in his debut. Last year, he won in dominating fashion by five strokes. He’s made one official start this season finishing T25 at the Fortinet Championship. Matsuyama also teed it up at Quail Hollow with the International team where he played fairly well.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Tom Kim (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Tom Kim will be making his Zozo Championship debut this week fresh off a victory at the Shriners Children’s Open. While his distance off the tee is a slight concern this week his elite level of iron play should make up for it. Based off his current form, he should be able to have success here.
Collin Morikawa (+160) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
Morikawa has played in the Zozo Championship in all three editions. He struggled in 2020 at Sherwood Country Club but finished T22 and T7 when it was hosted at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. He’ll be making his first official start on Tour this season but did play at the President’s Cup. His ball-striking ability makes him a prime target for this week.
Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Mito Pereira (+150) – Pointsbet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
If there’s one thing this course requires, it’s a great iron game. Mito currently ranks 1st on Tour in SG Approach and top 5 in Proximity 150-175 Yards. Despite not playing this course before, he did play on a very similar course for the Olympics where he finished T3. He also enters in great form off a T4 at the Shriners Children’s Open. Given the strength of the field, he should be able to crack the top 20 this week.
Sam Ryder (+350) – Bet365
Risk 1.00 to win 3.50 Units
Sam Ryder was a late addition to the field this week with Aaron Wise withdrawing. He’s made three starts this season and has been trending in the right direction. He missed the cut at the Fortinet, finished T45 at the Sanderson Farms, and then finished T28 at the Shriners. Ryder checks most of the boxes this week including ranking well on “short courses”, solid iron play, great course history, and putting well on bentgrass. Given the limited field and no cut, he’s worth a look at these odds.
Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Zozo Championship: 5.17 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
The NHL kicks off in North America with a rematch of the 2021-22 Eastern Conference Finals. It was a tale of two stories last year as the Rangers went undefeated in their three matchups against the Lightning in the regular season but couldn’t handle them in the playoffs losing in 6. The Rangers will look to build off their surprising success last season while the Lightning aim to make it back to their fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Finals.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ vs New York Rangers
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Tampa Bay Lightning: 0-0-0, — Atlantic (0-0-0 Away)
New York Rangers: 0-0-0, — Atlantic (0-0-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
-110
-105
+1.5 (-240)
o5.5 (-105)
New York Rangers
-110
-115
-1.5 (+200)
u5.5 (-115)
Preview:
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning salary cap issues forced them into letting Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh walk this offseason. However, they were able to keep a few key pieces this offseason re-signing Mikhail Sergachev, Eric Cernak, and Anthony Cerilli.
Since 2020, Tampa Bay has represented the Eastern Conference in the finals each year. Given their current roster, they look to be poised to make another run this season. The biggest issue for them has been their inability to stay healthy. Brayden Point will return to the lineup after suffering an injury forcing him to miss the majority of the postseason last year. He’ll be playing on their top line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov who’ve had injury issues themselves.
Andrei Vasilevskiy will once again look to anchor this team with his play in net. Over the past three season’s he’s been incredible and the main reason for their success.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
3.48
8th
GA/GP
2.78
6th
PP%
23.9%
8th
PK%
80.6%
11th
SF/GP
30.9
17th
SA/GP
29.8
7th
Projected Lines:
Steven Stamkos
Brayden Point
Nikita Kucherov
Brandon Hagel
Nick Paul
Alex Killorn
Cole Koepke
Vladislav Namestnikov
Ross Colton
Patrick Maroon
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare
Corey Perry
Victor Hedman
Cal Foote
Mikhail Sergachev
Erik Cernak
Hayden Fleury
Philippe Meyers
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Brian Elliot
New York Rangers
The Rangers are coming off a somewhat unexpected season. Igor Shesterkin was able to provide some stable goaltending propelling them to the Eastern Conference Finals. They also had Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Chris Kreider all record season highs providing offensive support as well.
This offseason they did lose a few pieces including Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome, Alexander Georgiev, and Andrew Copp. Some of those guys were trade deadline acquisitions so it was unlikely that they would have resigned anyway. They did make a few acquisitions such as Vincent Trocheck, Ryan Carpenter, Jimmy Vesey, and Jaroslav Halak.
Their success this season depends on a few factors but mainly the play of last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin. If their top six can continue to produce, they should be able to make a run at the Eastern Conference Finals again.
21-22 Season
GF/GP
3.05
17th
GA/GP
2.49
2nd
PP%
25.2%
8th
PK%
80.6%
11th
SF/GP
30.9
17th
SA/GP
30.8
11th
Projected Lines:
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Kaapo Kakko
Artemi Panarin
Vincent Trocheck
Vitali Kravtsov
Alexis Lafreniere
Filip Chytil
Barclay Goodrow
Jimmy Vesey
Ryan Carpenter
Ryan Reaves
Ryan Lindgren
Adam Fox
K’Andre Miller
Jacob Trouba
Zac Jones
Braden Schneider
Igor Shesterkin
Jaroslav Halak
Pick:
New York Rangers (-115) – DraftKings
Risk 0.58 to win 0.50 Units
For the first few weeks of the regular season, I’m sticking with half-unit plays. We’ve seen the Lightning struggle out of the gate after making a deep postseason run. The Rangers were able to shut this team down during the regular season last year and are looking for revenge. If we look at the home/away splits from last season, the Rangers were much better at home while Tampa Bay struggled on the road.
Leans:
New York Rangers/ Tampa Bay Lightning Under 5.5 (-108) – Barstool
Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units
Vegas Golden Knights/ Los Angeles Kings Over 6.0 (+100) – Caesars
Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
Player Props to Target:
Jonathan Marchessault over 0.5 Points (-125) – DraftKings
He went over this number in three of their four matchups against the Kings last season. In those three matchups, he recorded over a single point twice.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
