We started the week off with a 1-0, +1u Monday in MLB. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to continue building our bankroll prior to Week 2 of CFB. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins TT UNDER 2.5(-110) @ Phillies–5:45 PM CT
Did you know that the Marlins have been held to 2 runs or less in each of their last 8 ballgames? That’s truly hard to do. Since the All Star Break, this offense has been totally wretched in every since of the word. With Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, and (likely) Avisail Garcia still on the shelf, I see no reason why their fortunes turn tonight.
Phillies SP Aaron Nola has pitched to a sub-1.00 WHIP this year but has had some blowup starts(moreso blowup innings) that have inflated his ERA to 3.43. Nola yielded a season high 8 ER in his last start in Arizona, but he has been terrific in his bounce back spots this season. Nola has allowed 5 ER or more on 4 separate occasions this year, and in his following start, he has allowed just 1 ER in those 4 appearances. When you consider that the wind will be blowing nearly 10 mph in tonight, I think Nola can go deep in this game and totally dominate this putrid lineup.
We will have to trust the Phillies bullpen here(something I’m not always comfortable doing), but considering they are fresh off an off-day and facing this bad of an offense, I’m willing to do so in this spot.
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 ML(+125) @ Mariners–8:40 PM CT
Mariners SP Logan Gilbert has all the makings of a future All Star SP, but he is far too unproven to be getting this much credit. Gilbert holds a 3.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at T-Mobile Park this year; while allowing 8.5 hits/9 innings isn’t bad, it’s proof that Gilbert isn’t as dominant as he’s perceived to be. Gilbert is deep into his second big league season having thrown 155 innings this year; his previous high as a pro was 135 innings back in 2019. Fatigue down the course of September is a consideration in this play. The White Sox have scored over 5.5 runs/game over their last 7 and have improved vs right-handed pitching throughout the course of this season.
I don’t think most people realize how poor the Mariners offense has been in this role. Since July 1st, the Mariners hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. White Sox SP Johnny Cueto has enjoyed a career renaissance here in 2022, keeping hitters off-balance to the tune of a sub-3.00 ERA. I think he’s able to make quick work of this Seattle lineup tonight.
The Mariners hold a MAJOR bullpen advantage, which absolutely will keep this a F5 play.
Tuesday U.S. Open TENNIS TOTAL OF THE YEAR and Champions League Soccer Headlines.
The MLB comp totals system is on the over in the Mets at Pirates game at 6:35 eastern. The Mets will be anxious to get the sour taste of back to back home favored losses out of their mouths here today against a Pirates team that looks like they threw the towel in. This system is based on road favorites off a pair of home favored losses vs a team that scored more than 1 run in a home loss. Walker for the Mets has allowed 5 runs in his last 10 innings and Wilson 11 runs in his last 16 and has a 4.81 home Era. We will back the over unless the Mets decide to replace Walker with deGrom. On Tuesday we have another Powerful card up with the WNBA PLAYOFF Game Month, U.S. OPen total of the year in Tennis, Chapions league Soccer and MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Mets and Pirates over the total. RV-
Subpar results in tennis yesterday but we move on! First CFB picks for the week included below.
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (9-5, +1.88 units):
Berrettini/Ruud over 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit, and
Jabeur/Tomljanovic over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
I know what you’re thinking – Chris, all you’re doing is better overs on these games. Yes, that’s true. Thing is, almost all of these tennis players have been elite leading up to these matches. It’s also a more even playing field than ever before. Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Serena, etc. – all the elites of the past have either been eliminated or they’re not at the US Open, and all of these players are trying to take advantage. All four players who we’re betting on today have elite endurance and serving prowess. Hence every one of them should be really hard to eliminate. Betting the overs, again – trust the process.
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
We have a great show for you today! College Football week 1 is over and we recap the aftermath! First, Kiev talks about some of the huge games that went on over the weekend. What went right? What went wrong? Then, we get into some misleading final scores. Then, Kiev talks about some betting information for week two such as injuries, let down spots and look ahead situations. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 2. Finally, Kiev gets into fantasy football with his top players as well as some sleepers for your fantasy football draft! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Serie A Play for Monday is on Torino at 2:45 eastern. Torino was enjoying a solid start to the season but lost 3-1 away vs Atlanta. Now they will look to make amends in front of thier home fans with a math against Lecce a newly promoted squad that has expected struggled since the promotion and are off back to back draws. Lecce will be without Federico Brancolini, Joel Voelkerling Persson, Mert Cetin and Kastriot Dermaku, who have all been ruled out with injuries. Lecce sits at 15th in the table and will face a determined Torino team that likely secures the win. Rob Vinciletti
After CFB taking center-stage this weekend, it’s time to get back to the diamond. I’m rolling with 1 play here on Labor Day to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-135) vs Brewers–3:10 PM CT
Brewers SP Adrian Houser is extremely unreliable and has been especially poor on the road this year(6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). With a BB/9 at 4.8 away from home, I have a really hard time seeing Houser flip the script at Coors Field, which is notorious for having the most hitter-friendly conditions in baseball. The Rockies are a horrible offense away from home, but at Coors Field, they have the 6th highest OPS vs righties since July 1st. They have found themselves in this spot(first game back home after a multi-series road trip) on 7 separate occasions this year and managed to score nearly 8 runs/game in this role. They are plenty capable of taking advantage of Houser today.
I would also lean towards Rockies F5 ML at the plus-price, but Rockies SP Ryan Feltner has not shown the consistency here in his rookie year to where I want to be backing him in this spot.
Shitty results with LSU last night, they just weren’t as refined as we thought they would be, but overall it’s been a profitable last few days and profitable week. Let’s keep rolling and hope to get some more wins in tennis today.
Probably later today but definitely by early this week, you can expect more lookahead bets on UFC 279, and more NFL and CFB. The best time of the year has arrived!
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (9-4, +3.6 units):
Kvitova/Pegula over 22 (-115), to win 1.5 units
This could be the championship game – two women that are playing at the top of their game and will not easily go down in this matchup. Like we see in Kudermetova and Jabeur, sometimes it only takes 2 sets for this to go over and that could be the case today in this one if it doesn’t reach 3 sets. I like Pegula to pull it out, but I love the over.
Nadal/Sinner/Alcarez parlay, 1 unit to win .80 units
Through 1 week of the CFB season, I sit at 5-6, -0.82u. Not a breakout start, but can’t wait to get back at it in Week 2. Last year in CFB, I hit at a 55% clip and netted +27.35u.
I won’t have a play in either of the standalone games here on Sunday or Monday, but since I know these games will be heavily bet, I wanted to pass along my thoughts.
Florida State vs LSU(-4) O/U 51.5–Sunday 9/4; 6:30 PM CT
This is a pseudo-home game for LSU being that it’ll be played at the SuperDome in New Orleans.
I played Florida State OVER 6.5 wins and think this ‘Noles team is set for a breakout season. QB Jordan Travis is a dynamic player that is now 6-2 as the starter dating back to last season(they went 0-5 without him in 2021). Not only did has he run for over 500 yards in each of the past 2 seasons, but he also has thrown for a respectable 8.1 Y/A throughout his career. Perhaps the biggest improvement Mike Norvell made this offseason was in his WR corps. Micah Pittman was the obvious addition, but Norvell now has a slew of long WR’s that will turn “50-50” balls into “70-30” balls. The RB room is deep and, paired with Travis’s ability as a runner, could be the most established part of this offense. The OL will set the tone in the run game but will have their hands full facing off with LSU’s pass rush.
I’m in total wait-and-see mode on LSU. Bringing in Brian Kelly was great and all, but to think that lone addition will translate into immediate success is short-sided. This has been the most disappointing program in CFB each of the past 2 seasons, and there are still a lot of moving parts on this Tigers roster. It appears Jayden Daniels will receive the first snaps at QB tonight, and I agree with that move. Daniels holds a career 8.4 Y/A, 32 TD vs 12 INT, and also added over 1200 yards on the ground at Arizona State. While I don’t think LSU’s OL is “bad”, that unit is still not solidified up to the standards LSU fans would like. In addition, I have my worries about LSU’s running game. John Emery Jr is still suspended to start the season, and what did Noah Cain do at Penn State(right around 4 YPC) to make me think he can take on the lead back role? Florida State is stout in both their interior DL and at that LB spot. Thankfully, Daniels has a difference-making WR at his disposal in the form of Kayshon Boutte. There is a lot of hype around LSU’s other complementary WR’s, but I’ll need to see it on this big stage to believe it. Florida State’s secondary is perhaps the strength of their D, so Boutte likely won’t be able to carry the load alone.
I believe it’s true that LSU could step up in this season opener and still disappoint overall this season, perhaps on a pretty large scale. I still have a financial investment on this game given my Florida State season win total bet, but I don’t have a good enough feel on LSU to play this game. I lean towards Florida State and the Over, but I won’t get to the window with either of those.
Clemson(-23.5) vs Georgia Tech O/U 50.5–Monday 9/5; 7 PM CT
You could’ve gotten Clemson at 20.5 here pretty recently, so you probably missed your best opportunity to back the Tigers. However, maybe you dodged a bullet. I personally couldn’t make a case to lay almost 4 possessions with a team that was as putrid as they were on the offensive side of the ball last year. If you’re rebuttal is, “Oh, well it’s Georgia Tech”… consider that Clemson escaped with a narrow 14-8 win AT HOME against this same Yellow Jackets team last season.
I’m of the belief that QB DJ Uiagalelei will not be Clemson’s starter by season’s end. DJ didn’t just have a bad game, a bad few games, or a bad month; he had an atrocious 2021 season(55% completion, 6 Y/A, 9 TD vs 10 INT). Dabo Swinney clearly didn’t feel great about his QB depth last season, but the import of 5-star freshman Cade Klubnik has shortened Uiagalelei’s leash. Clemson’s frontline WR’s are good, but at the end of the day, this passing game will go as far as the QB allows it. This should be a Clemson offense that pounds the ground game; Will Shipley had a solid freshman campaign(5 YPC, 11 TD’s). The OL returns 4 starters and improved mightily throughout the course of last season.
Geoff Collins is Year 4 into his rebuild at Georgia Tech, yet he still has many of the same problems as he did when he arrived. While his LB corps is the strength of his defense and the secondary has high hopes, I do think Clemson’s OL will be able to win that matchup with Georgia Tech’s front 4 pretty handily. GT quarterback Jeff Sims has shown flashes throughout his 1st 2 years on campus, but a 57% career completion percentage plus a 25:20 TD/INT ratio doesn’t inspire much confidence. The Yellow Jackets lost their best player in RB Jahmyr Gibbs to Alabama, and they will have to rely on a plethora of young, unproven WR’s. Even worse, their OL projects to be the weakness of the offense once again. Clemson is banged up defensively and lose their longtime DC Brent Venables, but it’s hard to see them struggling too much against this offense.
Clemson could win this game convincingly and yet still have many of last year’s issues rear their ugly heads throughout the course of this season. This is not a game I would recommend playing.
Hell of a day in CFB, going 5-1 for over 5 units. Good start to betting football, and I can’t WAIT until the NFL starts. Plenty of profit coming, tell your friends.
Onto Sunday, onto more wins!
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (8-3, +3.7 units):
Ons Jabeur/Veronika Kudermetova over 22 (-110), to win 1 unit
Kudermetova’s serve has been sensational in this tournament, and Jabeur is one of the most elite players in female tennis right now. This should be a battle; let’s keep capitalizing on these overs!
Luidmila Samsonova/Ajla Tomljanovic over 21.5 (-115), to win 1 unit
These two are just very evenly matched, by my estimation, and while Tomljanovic is probably the better player, she must be emotionally and physically taxed after the charade of Serena’s last match. Another over should hit.
CFB Week 1 Picks (8-6-1, +1.3 units):
LSU -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We didn’t get the best number here but fortunately I don’t think it’ll matter tonight. Famous last words, perhaps. But Florida State cannot be trusted in their first big game of the season, just look how they’ve fared. Of course they beat lowly Duquesne last week for their opener, slow clap, but LSU is quite an uptick in difficulty. As much as Brian Kelly is annoying and probably a sellout, he’s also a really good football coach. LSU started to show their pedigree late last season, in competitive games against Alabama, Arkansas, and Texas A&M to end the season. Kelly will have the Tigers ready at the Superdome. The Seminoles just aren’t what they used to be and LSU is about to turn a corner. I think it’s a blowout.
