We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil is back after the amazing Circa Weekend put on by Derek Stevens and the gang at Circa Sports. First, we recap the weekend and and some college football week 0. Next, we give out a college football week 1 play that we feel is off past a key number. Then, D-Nasty is back to talk about some fantasy football running back shares that should help you for your fantasy football draft coming up! Want to ask us a question for our Monday mailbag or get some help capping a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com or DM us on twitter @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!
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I bring an MLB record of 148-137-6, +4.72u into the new week. I’m rolling with 1 play for tonight looking to start us off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Padres/Giants F5 UNDER 3.5(-105)–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Carlos Rodon is enjoying his 2nd straight Cy-Young caliber season, and he has pitched particularly great at Oracle Park(1.86 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). Rodon is striking out over 11.5 batters/9 all while allowing just 0.55 HR/9. The Padres have massively underperformed expectations offensively since the Trade Deadline; while they were able to take advantage of some poor Royals pitching this weekend, I’m not going to expect them to step up well in this matchup.
The Giants mashed righties in San Francisco last year, but that simply has not translated into 2022. Not only is Brandon Belt on the IL, but Luis Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, and Evan Longoria are all questionable for tonight’s game. Even with those guys, the Giants hold a measly 88 wRC+ in this role since June 1st. Padres SP Mike Clevinger has been steady for the Padres this year(3.59 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and is coming off a start where he allowed just 3 baserunners over the course of 6 innings. Clevinger is a guy that is used to pitching deep into the season from his days in Cleveland, and this is simply a more favorable matchup than many perceive.
Hi All! It’s damn good to be back, although I still feel kinda shitty after Vegas. To be expected, though – 100 degree sun, very little sleep over 72 hours, and a cocktail of fun substances will do that! #NoRegrets.
But there’s nothing like being back at home! We had a decent day in CFB, although Hawaii was really disappointing. I didn’t know that everyone on the Rainbow Warriors was 5’8″ 170 pounds, I mean Jesus. Vanderbilt looked like a bunch of monsters in comparison. We knew there would be a talent disparity, but not one that was that prominent.
We’re mostly done with every other sport other than the NFL, NBA, and CFB. Throughout the US Open, I’ll include parlay legs that I like every day, and of course I’ll handicap UFC when there’s value. Onto premiums!
WNBA Playoffs (1-9, -10.66 units):
Storm/Aces under 169.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Just way too high for a series that should be continually testy. The Aces can play better defense than what they’re showing and Sue Bird won’t just run over them in every game. Expect a battle and the Aces to win, wouldn’t make a bad parlay.
CFB Week 1 Picks (2-1-1, +.0.2 units)
Ball State/Tennessee under 68 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Volunteers probably should be a top 25 team but preseason rankings are usually terribly inaccurate. We lean towards Ball State (+34.5), that’s a huge line for Week 1 and this is a huge game for the Cardinals, who had a down year in 2021 at 6-7 but usually they’re one of the more formidable offenses in the MAC. This just isn’t a great matchup for them to regain confidence. The Volunteers’ defense is better than advertised, in our opinion, and I think Ball St., who still has plenty of kinks to figure out, won’t get on the scoreboard very much on Thursday. I’m on the under.
West Virginia +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This line has gone up and we think it’s gone up too much. JT Daniels, the transfer from GA and USC, has yet to reach his full potential but he’s in a good spot to prove he can hang with the big boys in Week 1 against a dominant Pitt defensive line. Fortunately the Mountaineers bring a veteran, highly-skilled offensive line and while they’ll likely make mistakes and blow some coverages on defense (they’re young and inexperienced), Pitt doesn’t have soaring offensive talent and I think this game is more evenly matched than people think. Taking the dog.
Purdue +3.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Purdue ML (+140), to win 1.4 units
This is a BIG game at Purdue for both teams who are trending in opposite directions. Penn State has no momentum to speak of heading into this season. Hopes were high in 2021 but we saw them stumble badly down the stretch. Sometimes hype and belief can get you far, but we think the Nittany Lions showed their true selves at the end of last year’s campaign. Meanwhile Aidan O’Connell, the surging 6th year ultimate senior, returns as Purdue’s starting QB after a great year. He earned nearly 4,000 passing yards, threw for 28 TDs and only 11 INTs, he’s a good decision maker, and Purdue’s offense is bound to get more potent with Iowa transfer Tyrone Tracy joining the mix and enough talent to keep Brohm’s complex, high-octane offense in gear. I think it’ll be too much for Penn State, who just doesn’t have elite talent on offense and a defense that largely depended on turnovers last year. This is the Boilermakers’ game to lose.
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units
Notre Dame +17.5 (-105), +1.5 units Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
I started the CFB season out with a 1.5u best bet winner on Illinois! However, I dropped both MLB plays last night, bringing my MLB record to 148-136-5, +5.92u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close the weekend out strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Angels TT UNDER 3.5(-120) @ Blue Jays–12:37 PM CT
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 ML(-125) vs Braves– 6:08 PM CT
Sunday card has a Platinum Supreme NFLX Total late afternoon and the MLB Game of the Month headlining a powerful card. WNBA Totals play below
The WNBA Totals play is on the Over 170 in the Seattle at Las Vegas game at 4:00 eastern. These two have played some wild ones. The last 2 have yielded over 190 and 8 of 11 in the series have gone over/ In WNBA Playoff games Road teams like Seattle that are off a home win scoring 90 or more are 3 of 3 over vs a team that scored 90 or more. Very short sample here . However with these two lighting it up of late. This looks like another high scoring game as Seattle is on a 7-0 over runs and 6 of 7 on the road of late. The Aces are 23 of 34 over at home and 4-0 over with 3+ rest. Play this one over. On Sunday Rob has another biog card up and led by the MLB Game of the Month, the NFLX Platinum Supreme total and soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we continue the hot run. For the WNBA Comp play. Go over the the total in the Storm vs Aces game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Probably should have better communicated that I’d be in Vegas until Sunday – expect the next premium email Monday, no new picks to add and like we saw in NFL last night, there’s no reason to be more preseason.
The final “rest” before the football season for me! Enjoy everyone!
Overall a winning day in WNBA, albeit a frustrating win since the Sun couldn’t muster much of a scoring output. Onto the next, added another CFB play and WNBA play.
WNBA Playoffs (2-10, -9.80 units):
(Sunday)
Aces -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice spot for the Aces here, after a ton of rest and an easy first series win against Phoenix, to lay the hammer down on Seattle. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home to Seattle this year and they’ve won by margin in both cases. The Storm are a solid enough team but Vegas, primed in a 5-game series to start off dominant, should be focused and on top of their game. It helps that they haven’t had to travel for some time. We’ll look to play back on Seattle when the series moves to the Pacific Northwest.
NFL Preseason Week 3 (15-6, +11 units):
—–
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
FAU -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
We disagree with this line movement but we’ll capitalize on the opportunity. FAU, from our purview, has an advantage on both offense and defense in this one. Last year they trounced Charlotte 38-9 as 6 point road favorites and I don’t think there’s enough change to claim that this result should be any different. FAU can move the ball and their secondary should still be significantly better than Charlotte’s. Take FAU with confidence.
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units
Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
A 1-2, -1.35u Friday brings my overall MLB record to 148-134-5, +8.22u. In addition to my Week 0 CFB Best Bet, I’ll be rolling with 2 MLB plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers TT OVER 3.5(-130) vs Tigers– 6:05 PM CT
The market still hasn’t caught up to the fact that the Rangers have been ELITE against left-handed pitching this summer. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold (by far) the highest wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark(171). Now, they’ll face somewhat of a lame duck in Tigers SP Eduardo Rodriguez. ERod’s 1.34 WHIP is a pretty accurate depiction of his inconsistency. In addition, this is just his 2nd start back off of the IL in what’s been an injury riddled season. His K/BB ratio has been cut in half from where it was last year, and he’s simply not an arm I’m afraid to go against.
The Tigers bullpen has been a pleasant surprise this year, but 3.5 over the full game is simply the wrong number. In addition to the larger sample size, the Rangers have scored 23 runs over their past 2 games and are absolutely a lineup I want to back at the moment.
*MLB(1u): Twins F5 -0.5(+105) vs Giants–6:15 PM CT
There’s a strong possibility this game gets postponed, but if the weather passes I think we’re getting a lot of value here.
Twins SP Sonny Gray has been a steady arm for the Twins this year, bringing a 3.10 ERA and 1.12 WHIP into tonight’s start. Allowing less than 1 HR/9 this year, I think Gray is in for a more favorable matchup than people would think. This Giants lineup has underperformed all season; since June 1st, they hold a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties on the road. They were shut out last night and are still without a key middle-of-the-order bat in Brandon Belt. While I do think this team could have one more run in them, I don’t see this being the matchup they reverse course.
Giants SP Alex Cobb is the perfect example of why you have to look at home/road splits. While Cobb has fared great at Oracle Park this year, he’s shown major red flags on the road each of the past 2 seasons. This season, Cobb holds a 5.65 ERA and 1.49 WHIP away from home and has seen his K numbers drop drastically. The Twins were really skidding at the plate on their recent road trip, but they returned back home last night and immediately plated 9 runs. In addition, they’ve been steady in this role over the course of the summer(115 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st).
There’s a lot of variance in the later innings of this matchup given the “boom-or-bust” nature of each of these bullpens. I will isolate the matchup I feel best about and keep this a F5 play.
Massive Saturday Card up with the NFLX Preseason Total of the Year tonight, along with a TOP 6* 100% College Football system side the English Premier League Total of the Month and of course MLB Which continues to rank #1. CFB Comp total below
The College Football comp play for Saturday is on the Under in the Wyoming vs Illinois game at 4:00 eastern. The game fits the powerful totals system below that has gone under 30 of 40 times long term in games where the total is less than 49 in non conference week 1 games where the favorite won less than 6 games last season. This play is solid but the line has come down to 43 since opening at 47. Illinois is breaking in a New Qb in Devito. The Illini though will be a run heavy team this year and likely burn lots of clock here. Wyoming was solid on defense last year but was very inconsistent on offense and will also be a run heavy team. They do return their top tackler and can stay in this game. Illinois has gone under 14 of 19 in non conference games, 8 of 10 overall including 4 of 5 at home. Look for this game to stay under tonight. On Saturday Rob Continues his hot streak with his NFLX Total of the Year, a Massive 100% Week College Football Side, the EPL Total of the Month in Soccer and another TOP MLB Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we Continue to cash in all sports. For the CFB Comp play. Play Under in the Wyoming at Illinois game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer, Las Vegas Cris @LasVegasCris, Chris Farley @FarleyBets, and Vegas Matty @Vegas_matty @Footballcontest all come on to discuss a HUGE weekend at Circa Sports e with Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev! The Football Contests are here and they are the most exciting thing in sports betting! We do a deep dive today with our previous winners into history, strategy, and what it takes to win a million dollars or more! We also discuss how to play these contests from anywhere in the United States Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
