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August 26th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A 3-0, +3.15u Thursday brings my MLB record to 147-132-5, +9.57u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Tigers– 7:05 PM CT

Unbeknownst to many, this Rangers offense has been elite in this role. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold a league-best 161 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They also plated 16 runs on Wednesday in Colorado and should feel confident facing Tigers SP Tyler Alexander. Alexander is a soft-throwing, “pitch to contact” lefty that has struggled on the road over the past 2 years. He allowed 1.6 HR/9 away from Comerica Park last year, and that has jumped up to 1.8 HR/9 this year to pair with his 1.46 road WHIP. Alexander’s style can be effective against a certain style of lineup, but I have little faith it translates well against an offense that has proven it can mash lefties at an elite clip.

Given the Tigers are coming off an off-day and have surprised me with their bullpen, I’ll isolate the F5 and key in on the matchup I want to take advantage of most.

*MLB(1u): Royals TT UNDER 3.5(-135) vs Padres–7:10 PM CT

You could make the argument this TT should be at 2.5. Joe Musgrove is a year-in, year-out All Star caliber arm that brings a brilliant 1.01 WHIP into tonight’s start. While he gets the luxury of pitching in San Diego, he has shown little-to-no dropoff on the road these past two years as a Padre. This is a favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that holds a rough 88 wRC+ vs righties since June 1st. KC also ranks near the bottom in both slugging% and HR’s hit, so I think Musgrove has a clear path to control this outing from start to finish.

Josh Hader has had well-publicized struggles in August since being acquired from Milwaukee, but the Padres still have a top-10 bullpen in baseball. Coming off an off-day, I can trust this fresh unit in what I perceive to be a very favorable matchup. The Padres have been skidding recently, but that rest almost solely on their offense.

*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 4.5(+105) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT

While the Yankees were a “play against” lineup for most of the month, they have had a great week; they swept the Mets earlier in the week and broke out last night with a 13-run performance against these A’s. Since June 1st, the Yanks hold the highest wRC+ in the league vs lefties on the road. Many people overlooked Giancarlo Stanton’s absence and the effect it had on this order. Since welcoming him back, they look like the same dangerous lineup we’ve seen for most of the season.

I think the love for Athletics SP JP Sears is extremely premature. While Sears has looked great here in his rookie campaign, this is just his 6th career big league start. I worry about how sustainable this early success is; Sears is allowing over 30% of balls to be hit above 95 mph, and he’s left an astounding 85% of runners on base. The strikeout rate he held at the minor league level has also failed to translate to the big league level. Even more of a red flag, Sears was traded by the Yankees just a month ago. If anybody has dirt on Sears and knows how to give him his “welcome to the big leagues” moment, it’s the Yankees.

The A’s have a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball and have been a “play against” unit all season. When you combine that with the youth of Sears and the Yankees current form(+ proven track record), the fact that we’re getting this at anything better than -120 is laughable.

NFL Preseason Week 3 Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Buffalo vs Carolina -6 O/U 40

I am not understanding this line at all.  Carolina just lost one of their higher QB draft picks in Matt Corral to a bad Lisfranc foot injury for the season.  This line assumes that the Panthers will play their better options more often in Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold, but I really do not understand how that would be a smart move.   I think we see a very small amount of Mayfield and instead, get a lot of PJ Walker shoved down our throats.  On the other side of the coin, Bills backup QBs Case Keenum and Matt Barkley have played amazing this preseason so far going a combined 23-26 in pass completions vs Denver, and both earning over a 100 quarterback ranking.  The Final kicker to this handicap is that Sean McDermott is an amazing 12-6 over 66% record in the preseason, and a massive 4-1 in the final week over in over 5 years of sample size.   I think that he might be almost as competitive in the preseason as John Harbaugh, and will want to finish out 3-0 this Friday against the Panthers.  Take the points and sprinkle.

Buffalo +6 +100 – 2 stars and sprinkle ML

 

College Football Week 0 – Free Play

By
Shawn Knoche
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My free play analysis for Week 0 of the College Football Season looks at Nevada and New Mexico State.

Both teams come into the match-ups with new head coaches with Jerry Kill taking over at New Mexico State and Nevada will be coached by Ken Wilson. Kill comes in after finishing out the Gary Patterson era as interim coach at TCU, and Wilson joins from Oregon as Co-DC, although he spent more than 20 years at Nevada earlier in his career.

The Wolfpack will feature a bunch of new players with only 6 returning starters, but they did get quite a few from the transfer portal. NMSU is relatively unproven on offense with only 3 players coming back, but they do have 9 returning starters on defense although that’s not saying much since they were 127 out of 130 teams in total defense in 2021 and they were 112th against the run allowing just under 200 yards per game. The Wolfpack will certainly try and leverage the running game in this one and they do have Oregon transfer Cross Patton (Whose father is Big Boi from OutKast) along with some other solid options at RB. NMSU will struggle a bit on offense as well especially concerning are some major issues on the OL. I do think Jerry Kill slows down the tempo a bit from last year, but this team is going to have to try and keep up as I expect Nevada to run all over them.

Last year Nevada won 55-28, but they called the dogs off in the 4th quarter. They also had 463 passing yards and 6 touchdowns through the air and all that production in the passing game is gone.

Even with all those trends that would lead you toward the under the bottom line for me here is I think this line has swung too much. The over/under opened at 55 and is down to around 50ish depending on the book. These teams only hit under this number 7 times combined last year, and even with all the coaching changes I can’t see the defenses turning in a Big Ten type performance. At some point the fact that NMSU’s talent on defense is so bad will come through and big plays will happen in both the running game and passing game for Nevada. Once that happens the game should speed up for NMSU and even if they dont score it should give Nevada some more chances close to the goal. It’s still football out west that doesn’t feature San Diego State so I like some points later in game here.

I’m predicting a 37-24 final here. Taking Over 50 for 1.5 Units with a Lean toward Nevada -9

 

 

 

College Football Week 0 Free Play

By
Dan Everett
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Nevada @ New Mexico St (+9) O/U 50 – Aug 27 10 PM ET

As of the writing of this article I’m going to use the mid-line consensus numbers for the spread and total as listed in the title.

Feel free to shop around though. I have listed some books and lines below for reference:

FanDuel: 8.5 / 49.5
DraftKings: 9 / 50.5
Caesars: 9 / 50
MGM: 9.5 / 50.5

By the end of this article, I will conclude with my first free pick of the football season!

Nevada is coming off an 8-5 season on a senior dominated team (202 of 264 overall starts). They have gone to bowl games the last 4 seasons. While that sounds great, this team started off the 2021 campaign going 7-2. They flailed at the end of the season losing 3 of their last 4 games, including a 52-24 loss to Western Kentucky in the bowl game.

That was all in the Jay Norvell era which has come to an end as he moves on to Colorado State to take over their program. Norvell will be replaced by first year head coach Ken Wilson. Don’t be surprised though if Wilson has picked up a thing or two from Norvell. Wilson has been a coach on the Nevada staff for more than two decades. He finally gets the chance to put his stamp on a basically brand-new team.

Nevada returns 2 offensive starters and 4 defensive starters, which gives them the lowest returning production in the country. While that sounds a bit scary, they are bringing in 12 transfer portal commitments which puts them in the top 10 in that category. That should give them a good boost of experience that this team will need.

Nevada loses their QB and their top 7 pass catchers from 2021’s team. With that being said, they do return their two headed running attack with Toa Taua and Devontae Lee. They should be able to establish the run early against a New Mexico State team that ranked 112th against the run last year giving up an average of 197.5 yards per game and return a majority of that defense.

Nevada Trends:

7-1 ATS in game one of the season
14-2 SU against New Mexico State
7-0 SU in last 7 road games vs New Mexico State
Over in 9 of last 12 Nevada games

New Mexico State brings in veteran head coach Jerry Kill for his first year with the Aggies. Kill’s previous stops included Northern Illinois (2008-2010), Minnesota (2011-2015), and TCU (2021). Out of those 10 seasons, Kill took his team to 5 bowl games. He lost all of them. He had one good season overall at 10-3 with the 2010 Northern Illinois team. The rest of his tenure was mediocre outside of a couple 8-5 seasons with Minnesota.

New Mexico State is willing to take a shot on his “success” though. They’ve had one winning season since 2002. Since then, they are averaging 3 wins per season. Not great when they spent a great deal of that time in the WAC and now as an independent.

New Mexico State will return 3 offensive starters and 9 defensive starters from last year’s 2-10 team. The defense should have experience playing together as a more cohesive unit, but with a new coaching staff you must think there will be a learning curve with changes to their schemes.

New Mexico State will also have a tough beginning to their schedule as their first 5 games are against bowl teams from last year. After that it gets a bit easier with their next 6 games coming against teams with losing records.

It’s still looking like a rough road ahead for this team with what they return on a marginal defense and pieces they need to replace on offense.

New Mexico State Trends:

1-13 ATS game one of the season
4-2 ATS in last 6 games against Nevada
Over in 7 of last 8 games against Nevada

Nevada won the meeting between these two teams last year by a score of 55-28. We must take that with a bit of a grain of salt though as it was in Nevada with a senior laden team. With that being said, Nevada did hold a 52-7 lead through three quarters.

Another trend we have to take with some skepticism is New Mexico State’s 4-2 ATS record in their last 6 games vs Nevada. Most of those games came in seasons prior to 2012. The spread in last year’s game was 28.5. This line is much closer than they have been in the past.

This number opened with Nevada being favored by 14 points and the over under was set at 55. Both numbers have come down to where they sit now around 9 and 50 respectively.

Both teams lose a bunch of talent from last year’s team via graduation and the transfer portal. They are both learning new systems from new head coaches. This puts them on fairly even terms as far as the experience of their teams, coaching, and schemes.

Where I believe the difference comes in is Nevada gets a familiar coach. They hired within the program promoting someone who has been there for a long time during fairly successful seasons. Nevada also brings back their top two rushers against a defense that was pitiful against the run last year. I also like Nevada’s depth and transfer portal commitments here better than what New Mexico State has. I don’t think this game is as close as some people think it will be.

While it seems like a stale number at this point, I do think there’s value here still. Nevada should come out with the win and I think they get it done by at least 14 points. Past first game of the season trends are also strong with these two teams.

The total gives me pause. Since Nevada will be committed to the run game, and from all accounts New Mexico State will be too, the tempo of this one could get a bit slow. There’s usually a reason these totals come down and I’m not going to be one to push the envelope on it here. I find more value backing a side in this one.

This is the first game of the year, so I’m going to keep the unit size small until we’re able to get more data points.

Give me Nevada -9 for 1U.

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Rob V: Thursday Europa League Soccer play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Thursday card has the 100% Canadian Football League Total of the Year and a Powerful MLB Card with a 15-0 Dominator System. Soccer Comp  play below

The Soccer comp play total is on the Under in the Pyunik vs FC Sheriff reverse fixture in the Europa league Qualifier at 1:00 eastern. These two played last week and the game looked like it was in slow motion. They finished in a goal less draw with neither team mounting many threats. Now they switch Venues and Sheriff is at home where they won 2-0 last time they faced Pyunik here. In fact they have NEVER Conceded  a goal to them in any match. Pyunik does play well in the back field and this is  a likely 1-0 win for the first team that breaks through if one even does as we may see extra time.. Play this game under 2.5  On Thursday our 100% Canadian Football League Total of the Year headlines along with a Powerful MLB Card that has a 15-0 5* Dominator system from the database. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we remain #1 overall in MLB on several leader boards. For the Soccer pay go under 2.5 Sheriff vs Pyunik match.Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

August 25th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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My MLB record sits at 144-132-5, +6.42u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Guardians/Mariners UNDER 8(-115)– 3:10 PM CT

Mariners SP Marco Gonzales has had anything but a career-best year, but this is a spot where I believe he can command this game from start to finish. The soft-throwing lefty has pitched much better at home this year, and he’ll face a Guardians lineup that holds just an 85 wRC+ vs lefties since June 1st. The Guardians have also hit the 2nd fewest HR’s in all of baseball; I believe Gonzalez’s “pitch to contact” nature will play nicely against this Cleveland lineup.

Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has had breakout 2022 season, bringing a sub-1.00 WHIP into this afternoon’s start. The young righty is no stranger to pitching on the road(14 of his 22 starts on the road this year), and this sets up as a favorable matchup. Since June 1st, the Mariners hold just an 89 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. Routinely, they have failed to step up in competition well in their tougher matchups. McKenzie’s one achilles heel is that he gives up more HR’s than you’d like, but the righty is also giving up just 6.4 hits per 9 innings.

These are 2 of the top 5 bullpens in the game. Each is deep, and aside from Paul Sewald of the Mariners, every key reliever will be available for each of these squad’s this afternoon.

*MLB(1u): Astros -1.5(+115) vs Twins–7:10 PM CT

Astros SP Luis Garcia has uncharacteristically struggled with allowing HR’s at Minute Maid Park this year, but he’s still a trustworthy arm in this role. Garcia held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home last year, and aside from the HR’s, his other numbers(K/9, BB/9) are seemingly identical to last year. He gets the luxury of facing a Twins lineup that is in abysmal current form; they have scored just 9 runs over this 5 game losing streak. Rocco Baldelli can have as many closed-door meetings as he wants, but the fact is his team is sliding.

Twins SP Chris Archer is an unreliable starter, specifically on the road. He’s walking nearly 5.5 batters per 9 innings and allowing 1.6 HR/9 in his road starts this year. Archer is also usually limited to 2 turns through the order, meaning he’ll hand over the reigns to a bullpen that ranks just 17th in bullpen WHIP this season. The Astros have seen righties well at home this summer(127 wRC+ at home since June 1st) and are plenty capable of taking advantage tonight.

Dusty Baker has managed his bullpen well in this series, as only Bryan Abreu figures to be unavailable tonight. This is a deep unit that holds a 3.01 ERA on the year; I think they’ll have a sizable advantage over Minnesota’s pen in the later innings.

*MLB(0.8u): Rays -1.5(+125) vs Angels–12:10 PM CT

Rays SP Drew Rasmussen has been nothing short of incredible at the Trop this year(1.99 ERA, 0.75 WHIP). Today, he gets the luxury of facing an Angels lineup that holds an abysmal 61 wRC+ on the road vs righties since June 1st. The Halos are in particularly bad current form, having lost 8 of their last 9 and scoring just 9 runs over their last 6 games. 

Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is the exact type of arm I’m looking to fade. His 3.14 ERA is quite deceiving considering he holds a 1.40 WHIP. Sandoval continually gets away with his control issues, but that’s something these numbers can’t be sustained over a full season. The Rays offense has not treated us well this year, but they have been undeniably good in this role. Since June 1st, Tampa holds a 142 wRC+ at home vs left-handed pitching. They’ve also won 6 of their last 7 games.

The Rays have a top 5 bullpen in the league, while LAA’s ‘pen can be described best as “boom-or-bust”. While the Rays used a lot of arms in last night’s win, none of those guys threw enough to where I think they’ll be unavailable this afternoon.

Premiums, 8.25 and Beyond

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Overall a winning day in WNBA, albeit a frustrating win since the Sun couldn’t muster much of a scoring output. Onto the next, added another CFB play and WNBA play.

MLB Leans (not official plays):
 
Lots of huge favorites today, not a ton of value, but I’ll probably make an actual play on the White Sox/Orioles over. The O’s also have value at home after a loss, and @BohBohBets tells us this is a good trend – the White Sox lose in game 3 on the road in all of August.
Angels/Rays also feels like an under, but I’ve been wrong a lot there. Baseball, LOL.
 
WNBA Playoffs (2-10, -9.80 units): 
(Sunday)
Aces -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice spot for the Aces here, after a ton of rest and an easy first series win against Phoenix, to lay the hammer down on Seattle. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home to Seattle this year and they’ve won by margin in both cases. The Storm are a solid enough team but Vegas, primed in a 5-game series to start off dominant, should be focused and on top of their game. It helps that they haven’t had to travel for some time. We’ll look to play back on Seattle when the series moves to the Pacific Northwest.
 
NFL Preseason Week 3 (14-5, +11.05 units):
 
Lean under 36 in Packers/Chiefs
Lean Texans +3.5 in 49ers/Texans
Not enough evidence to like either one, but the Packers and Chiefs game should be pretty sleepy. No Aaron Rodgers, probably very little if any Patrick Mahomes. And while the 49ers may play their starters for a little while, Houston has more QB depth (SF without Jimmy G) so there’s probably more value there. Either way, I can’t bet on a game tonight.
 
Panthers -6 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Inflated for a reason, the Panthers starters and specifically QBs need more reps. Bet them early too, if you can. Buffalo won’t give a shit about this game.
Seahawks -4.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Same situation as above.
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
 
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
 

FAU -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
We disagree with this line movement but we’ll capitalize on the opportunity. FAU, from our purview, has an advantage on both offense and defense in this one. Last year they trounced Charlotte 38-9 as 6 point road favorites and I don’t think there’s enough change to claim that this result should be any different. FAU can move the ball and their secondary should still be significantly better than Charlotte’s. Take FAU with confidence.

 
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units

Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
 
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.

Podcast 53 – 22 – With Kyle Hunter & Ron Ace Sports – College Football Week 0-1 & Tempo Changes – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE show for you today!   Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports and Kyle Hunter @Kylehunterpicks are back to break down some college football week 0 as well as some huge games for college football week 1!  First, Kiev talks about our LIVE SHOW THIS FRIDAY AT CIRCA SPORTS at 1PM Pacific to talk about the HUGE football contests for this year.  Next, Ron comes on to break down his process when it comes to sports betting as well as college football week 0!  Then, Kyle comes on and the guys get right into some great information when it comes to betting college football totals in coaches that will have a big change in tempo.  Finally, Kiev and Kyle discuss two games for week 0 and four massive games for week 1 with some FREE PLAYS!  Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.  Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag?  Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Premiums, 8.24 and Beyond

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Well our over on the Sky and Liberty felt like it should hit – 96 points in the 1st half and then somehow, someway, it still dropped to a 162 point total. We were on the right side but not much you can do in a situation like that. That’s crazy variance.

Added more CFB plays, two NFL Preseason wagers (although we’re lowering our investment this week because of expected variance), and we’re sticking with our 2 picks in the WNBA. Let’s go!

MLB Leans (not official plays):
 
Braves/Pirates under 8.5 (-120)
 
Rangers/Rockies under 11 (-110)
 
White Sox/Orioles over 8.5 (-105)
 
Tampa Bay Rays make a great parlay leg with the Connecticut Sun
 
WNBA Playoffs (1-9, -10.70 units): 
(Wednesday)
Sun -6 (-110), to win 2 units
Sun TT over 85.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
The Dallas Wings are a formidable outfit but their game two win felt very flukey. You won’t see the Sun shoot that poorly from beyond the arc very often (28%) but that was the difference in the game. The Wings shot nearly 42% from 3 point land and nearly 50% from the field. Expect the Sun to look like themselves again – love them to blow open this game early and I expect them to maintain a lead throughout.
NFL Preseason Week 3 (14-5, +11.05 units):
 
Panthers -6 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Inflated for a reason, the Panthers starters and specifically QBs need more reps. Bet them early too, if you can. Buffalo won’t give a shit about this game.
Seahawks -4.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Same situation as above.
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
 
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
 

Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units

Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
 
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
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