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September 16th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I bring a MLB record of 157-144-6, +6.57u into this Friday night slate and have 3 selections to kick off the weekend. To receive a text if I make any additions to Week 3 CFB card, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Red Sox -1.5(-105) vs Royals–6:10 PM CT

Red Sox SP Michael Wacha has been phenomenal at Fenway Park this year, bringing a 1.79 ERA and 0.90 WHIP into tonight’s start. This is a very favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that looked lifeless while getting swept in Minnesota earlier this week. Since July 1st, KCR holds a measly 86 wRC+ vs righties away from their home park. I see a clear path for Wacha to continue his home success tonight.

It has clearly been a disappointing year for the Red Sox, but I still think there is enough firepower in their lineup to take advantage of favorable matchups. Royals SP Jonathan Heasley is utterly atrocious, holding a 1.59 WHIP and 1:1 K/BB ratio on the road this year. Heasley has also allowed 1.9 HR/9 this season, something that likely won’t play well at Fenway Park.

The Royals have far-and-away the worst bullpen in baseball. With the Sox coming on an off day, they’ll have a major advantage in the later innings. 

*MLB(1u): Rangers/Rays F5 OVER 3.5(-120)–6:10 PM CT

Rays SP Corey Kluber is well past his prime and has been very hit-or-miss for the Rays this season. His velocity is down over 4 mph from what is was during his prime in Cleveland, and he’s allowing more HR’s than at any other point in his career. This Rangers offense is sneaky, holding a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road since July 1st. They have scored 35 runs over their last 6 games, making this anything but an easy matchup for Kluber.

Rangers SP Martin Perez has somehow skated by with a sub-3.00 ERA this year despite holding a 1.23 WHIP. Give him credit for escaping damage, but that WHIP shows that the potential for damage is pretty prevalent. The Rays put up 11 runs in Toronto yesterday and have actually been quite good in this role; since July 1st, they hold a stunning 142 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop.

F5 totals at 3.5 should be reserved for top-of-the-line pitching matchups and/or putrid offensive matchups. We’re not getting either of those situations here.

*MLB(0.62u): Phillies F5 ML(+160) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT

Braves SP Max Fried is a top-of-the-line arm that limits homers at an elite rate, but the Phillies have handled him well this year. In 2 starts(12 innings), Fried has yielded 5 ER and 16 baserunners to this Phillies lineup. Despite a loss in Miami yesterday, I would say this Phillies lineup is in good current form having scored over 5 runs/game over their last 7 games. Since July 1st, the Phils also rank 3rd in baseball with a 126 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home ballpark. I like Fried in a lot of spots, but this is not one of them.

Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has struggled at home this year, but his road numbers are quite stout(2.76 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9). Suarez produces over twice as many ground balls as fly balls and limits hard contact quite well. The Braves offense deteriorated greatly on their recent 8 game road trip, and since July 1st, they hold a pretty pedestrian 103 wRC+ vs lefties at home.

This is a lot more competitive of a matchup than many would be willing to admit. Given the Braves’ massive edge in the bullpen, however, this will remain a F5 sprinkle.

Video Version Of Podcast 422 with Rob Pizzola and Matt Landes

By
Kiev O'Neil
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College Football Week 3 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Criminal activity, illegal transaction, crime, mafia. US Currency. Cash. Money.

As of Wednesday 9/14/22
Sharp money on:

  • Nebraska +14.5 down to +11 hosting Oklahoma- 42% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • Georgia -16 to -24.5 at South Carolina – 75% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Miami +8 to +5.5 at Texas A&M – 75% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Fresno State +16.5 to +12.5 at USC – 17% tickets and 58% of the money.
  • Ohio +21.5 to +18 – 63% tickets and 73% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Cal vs Notre Dame under 49 to 41 – 74% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Tulane vs Kansas State under 49 to 47.5 – 46% tickets and 79% of the money.
  • Marshall vs bowling green under 53.5 to 51 – 57% tickets and 99% of the money.
  • SMU vs Maryland over 69.5 to 74 – 60% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Michigan State vs Washington over 47.5 to 56.5 – 64% tickets and 78% of the money.

Key Numbers In College Football

By
Nick Hub
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Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

 

Key Numbers In College Football by Nick Hub

If your handicapping and betting without factoring in key numbers, your doing it wrong and working at a disadvantage.  Key numbers are a very important part of betting college football as they refer to the most common margin of victory and game total scoring (as seen in the charts below).  The most significant numbers are 3 and 7. It’s why there’s such a perceived value when you get a team at -2.5 or -6.5 when betting a favorite and +3.5 and +7.5 when betting the dog. Keep this in mind when placing your bets.  Getting a number below the key number as a favorite or a number above as a dog could be the difference between a win or loss.  It is also worth noting that it takes more money/bets for books to move off a key number.

In the second chart below are the key numbers in total game scoring.  If you play totals in college football, this chart is very important and will tell you whether to fire on a bet or wait.  If your number doesn’t get there, then pass! If you are betting college football, print this article and hang these charts at your desk or wherever you do you betting.  I hope this helps you beat the books!

Margin of victory, by frequency (2005-2022)

Margin Occurrence Pct.
3 1118 8.98%
7 937 7.53%
14 525 4.22%
10 521 4.19%
21 446 3.58%
4 423 3.4%
1 420 3.38%
17 406 3.26%
6 361 2.9%
24 346 2.78%
5 320 2.57%
28 315 2.53%
2 312 2.51%
18 309 2.48%
8 287 2.31%
11 275 2.21%
31 244 1.96%
20 239 1.92%
25 227 1.82%
35 208 1.67%
13 207 1.66%
27 193 1.55%

*courtesy of cleanuphitter.com

Game total scoring, by frequency (2005-2022)

Total Occurrence Pct.
55 429 3.45%
51 352 2.83%
45 330 2.65%
41 325 2.61%
48 325 2.61%
52 325 2.61%
58 315 2.53%
59 307 2.47%
44 305 2.45%
65 270 2.17%
37 260 2.09%
47 254 2.04%
69 248 1.99%
49 246 1.98%
62 241 1.94%
61 234 1.88%
66 227 1.82%
38 223 1.79%
54 218 1.75%
63 209 1.68%
34 204 1.64%
57 204 1.64%
56 190 1.53%

*courtesy of cleanuphitter.com

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

Week 3 CFB Plays(Part 2/2)

By
Michael Fordham
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I released 4 Best Bets yesterday and have now added 2 more plays to my Week 3 CFB card. I’m sitting on a few more leans that could become official plays by Saturday; to be sure, join my Telegram group to receive a text if those are added.

*Note: I have upgraded NC State -10 to a 1.5u play

*CFB(1u): Mississippi State ML(-130) @ LSU–Sat 9/17; 5 PM CT

I patiently waited for this ML to drop to -130 but have had this matchup circled for awhile. Mississippi State very well may be the most underrated team in the country. We’ll get to the offense in a second, but it really starts with their Front 7 defensively. They return their entire Front 4 from a year ago and figure to take advantage of what has proven to be a weak LSU offensive line. The LB corps is LOADED for the Bulldogs; if I don’t expect LSU to win up front, why would I expect them to beat Miss State at the 2nd level? LSU will welcome back RB John Emery Jr into the fold, but this will be his first appearance since 2020. I think Mississippi State’s secondary is attackable IF the opposing offense can buy their QB time, but that’s unlikely to be true here. I feel good about how Mississippi State will handle the QB run as well, something that LSU will likely have to use out of necessity.

Mike Leach inherited a set of players that were recruited to run a completely different system than the Air Raid. We saw flashes last year of this offense taking that next step, and they have come out of the gates hot here in 2022. Will Rogers is a 3rd year starter that completed 75% of his passes a season ago, but I actually think he’s set for an even bigger year. The Bulldogs now have a ton of continuity at WR and use their RB’s well in the passing game; Rogers should match last year’s efficiency while also starting to create more explosive plays. LSU’s front 4 is not as full strength; quite frankly, this defense was lucky to escape their opener with only 24 points allowed against Florida State. Mike Norvell left a ton of points on the field with some questionable short-yardage decision making. This Bulldogs offense is a well-oiled machine that I expect to take advantage of an attackable LSU back 7.

*CFB(1u): Texas A&M -6 vs Miami–Sat 9/17; 8 PM CT

Now that Notre Dame has exposed themselves as frauds, Miami jumps into the conversation as the next overrated team that will soon be exposed. We all want Miami to be “back”, but they aren’t there yet; there’s a reason a total staff overhaul was made this offseason. I like Mario Cristobal, but to assume he will make the team an immediate contender is nonsense. QB Tyler Van Dyke is the clear strength of this offense, and quite frankly, he may be the only strength. The Hurricanes run game was putrid a year ago, and I highly doubt we will see any Miami RB eclipse 5 YPC this year. They also lost their top 2 WR’s from a year ago and have seemingly had a tough time replacing that level of production. Most importantly, however, I think the Hurricanes have a long way to go to get the OL up to Mario Cristobal’s standard. They allowed 4 sacks vs Southern Miss last week and now have to go up against one of the best defensive fronts in college football. The Aggies also have one of the best secondaries in the country, so I’m not conceding the fact that Van Dyke struggles himself. Miami has played two nobodies to start the season; they are far from flawless.

It’s been a brutal week in College Station following last week’s loss to App State, but how repeatable is that performance? Credit App State for controlling the clock(42 minutes TOP), but it also leads to a somewhat misleading final score. I can virtually guarantee you the Aggies will see better QB play this week one way or the other. Haynes King will either step up and show improvement, or he will give way to LSU transfer Max Johnson. Johnson is far from a world beater, be he proved at LSU he was plenty steady enough to manage a game(5:1 TD/INT ratio). Quite frankly, I expect Johnson to take over the job this week and for A&M to show massive improvements offensively. RB Devon Achane is a talented back(7 YPC last year) that has struggled to find running room early in the season; thankfully, A&M will welcome back a key OL piece in Bryce Foster that should open up some more running room. Miami had a brutal run defense a season ago and have yet to be challenged in that department so far this year. Their secondary is still very unproven, so I think Johnson and co. can take advantage of that aspect of Miami’s D as well.

TNF Free Play!

By
Steve Norman
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Wild week 1, especially for Survivor leagues.  Finished 7-4 on the week +3.57 Units, would take that consistency every week!  Hoping to continue on the + side tonight as we have a potential playoff match in the making between LAC and KC.  

Do not forget to subscribe to my Premium NFL/PL Packages, Found at the link below!

Current NFL Record: 7-4 +3.57, verified @ winningcapperst.net

Chiefs -4 -110 1 Unit

Week 1 both teams came out firing, especially the Chiefs.  They looked like they haven’t skipped a beat and no hangover in offensive production missing Tyreek Hill this year.  Mahomes was spreading the ball around all over the field, and had balanced run/throwing attack of 27/39… Thats balanced for Andy Reid.  Chargers looked sharp as well, Herbert was threading the needle to receivers and lower string receivers stepped it up to replace Keenan Allen.  One thing I took away was the Chargers still allowed the Raiders to stay in the game, and that was with 3 int gifts from Carr.  Chiefs however stepped on the gas and never looked back.  We will see if Chargers can keep pace with this potent Chiefs offense tonight.

Last fall when these two squared off, Herbert came into Arrowhead and left with a W.  The final was 30-24 and in gambling fashion Chargers went for it on 4th down to score a last minute TD and ultimately the victory.  Not to take anything away from the Chargers in that game, but the Chiefs were not sharp and polished off.  They gave up 4 turnovers and still as we just saw last week, the Chargers let them stay in the game.  Chiefs will come out more polished off this season, avoid the mistakes and bad turnovers, and jump out to an early lead and never look back.

The total for this game tonight is a tricky one.  Missing kicker Butker for the Chiefs and Keenan Allen for the Chargers.  Chiefs have brought in former Jets kicker Amendola, but how much faith do they have in him?  Either the Chiefs will open up more to going for it on 4th downs on longer kicks they would normally trust Butker with; which if they convert could lead to sustaining drives for TDs to help lead to the over.  Or they roll out the kicker he misses or 4th downs aren’t converted stalling out drives to the under.  Crazy what a kicker can do, but I am staying away from the total for that reason.  Also doesn’t help an offensive weapon in Allen is out as well for the Chargers.

Chiefs look poised starting this season and are kind of flying under the radar in a sense that everyone is on the Bills hype train.  This teams is very capable and explosive.  KC comes out starts hot just like they did in Arizona, causing Herbert to play from behind the entire game.  Hoping with Butker being out, the scales tilt in our favor to be more aggressive offensively and paying off with TDs rather than Fgs to push for our -4 to cover.

 

 

Steve Norman

Rob V: WNBA Game 3+ Thursday night NFL and BIG MLB info up now

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

NFL Thursday night Triple System Play of the Month Headlines along with a rare 6* MLB System and Europa League Soccer. 5-0 Overall on Hump Day WNBA Finals totals play below.

The WNBA Totals Play is on the Under in the Las Vegas at Connecticut game at 9:00 eastern. Both games thus far have stayed under and we should see more of the same tonight as Vegas continues to employ a solid trap. This game fits a solid totals system that plays under for road dogs of less than 3 off back to back home favored win with a total of less than 175. The Sun are on a 7-1 under run and have also stayed under 7 of 9 vs a winning team. The Aces are 6 of 8 under vs a winning team and 8 of 10 under with 1 day of rest. In the series 7 of 9 have played under. Look for more of the same tonight. The Thursday night Triple system NFL Total of the Month is up and we were 5-1 last week in the NFL. We also have a top level 6* MLB Play and Europa League Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebool to Jump on now as we went 5-0 overall on Wednesday and continue to cash in All sports. For the WNBA Comp play. Go with the Under. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

September 15th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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A 2-2 night in MLB brings my overall record to 156-143-6, +6.62u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays here on Thursday before the football weekend takes center stage. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rays ML(+115) @ Blue Jays–2:07 PM CT

The more you analyze this matchup, the more you realize that we should not be getting a return here. Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has great command(7.46 K/BB ratio), but he is also extremely hittable(9.9 H/9). More importantly, he has really struggled at the Rogers Centre this year, bringing in a 4.48 ERA and 1.49 WHIP into tonight’s start. He had success against the Rays earlier this season on a few separate occasions, but this Tampa lineup has undoubtedly improved over the course of the summer. Since July 1st, the Rays rank 6th in baseball with a 112 wRC+ vs righties on the road.

Rays SP Shane McClanahan is having a Cy Young caliber season(2.20 ERA, 0.86 WHIP), and funny enough, his WHIP drops all the way to 0.71 when pitching on the road. I know this is his first start in 3 weeks, but that dominance is too hard to ignore. In addition, the Jays offense has struggled against lefties in their home ballpark; since July 1st, they hold a measly 85 wRC+ in this role.

Kevin Cash has managed his bullpen better throughout his series, and he will have every back-end arm available for today. The Jays bullpen has improved over the second half of the season, but they are still at a slight disadvantage in the later innings.

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-120) vs Reds–6:45 PM CT

Reds SP Chase Anderson has thrown just 90 innings across the last 3 seasons; in that time frame, he has allowed an alarming 2.4 HR/9. This year, Anderson has also struggled with his control, walking 1 batter per inning in a limited sample size. The Cardinals can get after Anderson in a variety of ways, and they have been great in this role. Since July 1st, the Red Birds rank 3rd in baseball with a 119 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark. Additionally, the Reds rank 28th in bullpen WHIP and are a pretty easy team to fade in the later innings. We should not be getting this at a standard number and price.

Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, September 17th

By
Nick Hub
-

We added a CFB play today and I want to give it out to you!! We have started the CFB season going 9-3 75% (+38.4% ROI, +$2864, +2.5% CLV) and currently have 8 premium plays loaded for the weekend. Yesterday, we gave out USF, which you can find HERE. Best of luck if you tail!

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!

The New Mexico State Aggies travel to Wisconsin to take on the Badgers on Saturday afternoon. The Aggies are coming off a loss to UTEP while the Badgers were upset by Washington State at home last week 17-14. Both of these teams run the ball the majority of their play calls (54.8% and 63.3%) which is a good thing for each team since the forecast is projecting 15 MPH winds. 3 and outs should be a common theme on Saturday in Madison. It is worth mentioning that Minnesota shut out the Aggies 38-0 in week 1 and, in my opinion, the Gophers have a better offense than the Badgers and the defensive edge could go to the Wisconsin between to 2 Big Ten squads. So, I am expecting this to be a 35-0 shutout, if the Badgers can score 35? Also, Wisconsin shut out 38-0 FCS Illinois State in their 1st game of the season and they play Ohio State next week so they will be keeping their play calling very vanilla. Additionally, in the past 2 years, Wisconsin games have gone under the total if the number is 45 (which is a key number) or more, which is a small sample size of 3 games but getting a 46 in a game that may not touch 40, is a great value play. Take Under 46

Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at the OddsBreakers!

 

Podcast 60– 22 – With Rob Pizzola and Matt Landes – NFL Week 2 Plays – College Football Week 3 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a Fantastic show for you today!  Rob Pizzola @RobPizzola from BetStamp @BetStamp and Matt Landes @MLandes18 from Props & Hops come on to break down some NFL, as well as to talk about a brand new sports betting destination!  First, Rob and Matt come on and talk about TheHammer.bet, and how it helps all kinds of fans, and sports investors around the whole betting industry.   Next, Rob, Matt, and Kiev get into some NFL week 2 with some great topics such as look ahead lines as well as the concept of overreaction.   Then, the guys get into some huge NFL games with some free plays and leans for the weekend!  Next, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that did not cooperate last week.  After that, Kiev talks some huge college football games with some Free Plays and some leans.  Finally, we get into College and NFL sharp money!  Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

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