The Firenze Open in Italy takes center stage and we have a pair of Americans set to do battle in Jenson Brooksby and MacKenzie McDonald. We will be back Brooksby here as has won 4 of the 5 sets between the two in the head to head series and has won both meetings, both of which were this year on hard courts. Brooksby is the more distinguished of the two and has has better results making it to the 3rd round at both Wimbledeon and The U.S. Open, as well as reaching 2 other finals this year. McDonald has had mixed results and lost in the 2nd round of the Japan Open last week. He has not been able to take advantage of the Brooksby serve in their matches and has lost most of the longer rallies. The Match should be close and may go 3 sets. However, we will back Brooksby here to advance. Rob Vinciletti
Rob V: Monday CFL Play + MNF GAME OF THE YEAR info
Monday night Football Game of the Year headlines. CFL Play below
The CFL Matinee Power System Play is on the Ottawa Red Blacks plus the 7 points at 1:00 eastern. Ottawa has covered 10 of 11 here and already Mauled Montreal here this year a few weeks ago. Today Ottawa Qualifies in this perfect 11-0 System that dates to 2004 and plays on road dogs off a road dog loss and a prior home loss and scored more than 10 in their last game and are taking on a Division opponent that scored less than 30 points in their last game. Montreal has failed to cover 5 of 6 on Mondays. Ottawa has covered 4 of 5 on the road. Take the points here. Our Highest rated Monday night Football play is up and has a perfect system and 5 power angles. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the CFL Play take the points with Ottawa. Rob V-
Hi All!
NFL Week 5 Free Plays – Sports Betting
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Chargers vs Browns +2 O/U 48
This should be a pretty good game to watch. The Chargers are laying road chalk against a team that has some talent. Last week, the Browns out-gained the Falcons by 70 yards in that loss and their perception went too low due to this. Believe it or not, Cleveland this year rank 7th in offensive EPA compared to the high flying Chargers ranking 11th. On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns do have a glaring weakness against the run, but the Chargers also have that weakness on offense ranking only 27th in rush EPA and 2.7 yards per rush. The Chargers give up 5.4 yards per rushing attempt, and I think that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have a field day on Sunday. I also do not like the earlier game for the west coast team. Take the Brownies
Browns +2 – 2 stars
Bengals vs Ravens -3 O/U 48.5
This is a fascinating game because there is a lot of disagreement in the Marketplace on which team is better. I happen to have the opinion that both teams are ranked pretty close, but I have the Bengals slightly better in my power ratings. This handicap has all to do with what the Bengals do well. Baltimore’s key to success is running the ball and the Bengals, last year, were able to slow Lamar and company down the last two matchups allowing less than 116 yards rushing. The Bengals rank 8th in passing yards at 257 per game while Baltimore ranks dead last allowing 315 per game. The Ravens also have a banged up offensive line and linebacking crew. I think that the Bengals cover this and have a chance to win outright
Bengals +3 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Commanders to +8.5 with the Chiefs to -1 – 2 stars
Rob V: NFL Sunday + AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR on SNF
Sunday card has the 100% AFC North Game of the Year on Sunday night Football and 2 TOP Totals plays from a 32-1 Totals system one is a top 6*, we also have our Signature Executive Level TIER 1 play and any MLB Wild card Game 3 Power Systems,
At 4:25 eastern. The NFL Power System Play is on Arizona plus the points over Philadelphia. We note that since 1990 Non Division home dogs of more than 2 off a road dog win where they scored 23 r more and had 1 or no turnovers are a perfect 11-0 Ats in week 12 or earlier if the total is less than 50. The Eagles are 4-0 but have failed to cover the last after putting up 350+ yards and 1-5 to the spread after allowing less than 150 pass yards. The Eagles are 0-5 to the spread here in Arizona. Last week they rushed for 200+ yards over the Jags. This week they take on the 5th best Rush defense. Arizona has covered 15 of 20 October games and the host team has covered 8 of 11. Look for Arizona to get the cover. A big Sunday is up and has the AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Sunday night. We also have an Executive LEVEL TIER 1, a 6* Total from a 32-1 Totals system and any MLB Wild Card Game 3 Power systems. NFL on Fire this year. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Arizona. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 8-3-0
ATS: 11-0-0
Oct 07, 1990 view Sunday 5 1990 Oilers Fortyniners home 14-0 0-7 7-7 0-10 21-24 5.5 46.0 -3 2.5 -1.0 0.8 -1.8 L W U 0
Sep 22, 1991 view Sunday 4 1991 Falcons Raiders home 7-0 0-7 7-7 7-3 21-17 2.5 36.5 4 6.5 1.5 4.0 -2.5 W W O 0
Oct 15, 1995 view Sunday 7 1995 Colts Fortyniners home 3-0 3-7 9-7 3-3 18-17 10.0 46.0 1 11.0 -11.0 0.0 -11.0 W W U 0
Sep 15, 2002 view Sunday 2 2002 Saints Packers home 7-0 14-10 7-7 7-3 35-20 2.5 45.5 15 17.5 9.5 13.5 -4.0 W W O 0
Nov 23, 2003 view Sunday 12 2003 Texans Patriots home 3-0 0-10 7-0 10-10 20-23 5.5 37.0 -3 2.5 6.0 4.2 1.8 L W O 1
Nov 26, 2006 view Sunday 12 2006 Bills Jaguars home 7-0 10-14 7-0 3-10 27-24 3.0 36.0 3 6.0 15.0 10.5 4.5 W W O 0
Oct 10, 2010 view Sunday 5 2010 Commanders Packers home 0-7 3-3 0-3 10-0 16-13 2.5 45.5 3 5.5 -16.5 -5.5 -11.0 W W U 1
Oct 24, 2010 view Sunday 7 2010 Dolphins Steelers home 6-0 10-17 3-3 3-3 22-23 3.0 41.0 -1 2.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 L W O 0
Nov 28, 2010 view Sunday 12 2010 Bears Eagles home 14-3 7-10 10-0 0-13 31-26 3.0 43.0 5 8.0 14.0 11.0 3.0 W W O 0
Nov 27, 2016 view Sunday 12 2016 Buccaneers Seahawks home 14-0 0-5 0-0 0-0 14-5 5.0 45.5 9 14.0 -26.5 -6.2 -20.2 W W U 0
Sep 29, 2019 view Sunday 4 2019 Saints Cowboys home 0-3 9-0 0-7 3-0 12-10 2.5 46.0 2 4.5 -24.0 -9.8 -14.2 W W U 0
Oct 09, 2022 view Sunday 5 2022 Cardinals Eagles home 5.0 49.5
NFL DFS Week 5 – Let’s Get Some Bucs!
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 3-1 in the high participant Double-Ups. On a 3 Week winning streak!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Tom Brady, QB: $6,000. Going back to the value well again this week at QB. This just seems like the spot the Bucs get going. Brady lit the scoreboard up playing from behind last week. I expect him to do the same at the start this week against the Falcons. This offense just hums different with Mike Evans and the rest of Brady’s weapons are getting healthy with the exception of Cameron Brate. The Falcons are currently 26th in the NFL against the pass.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB: $5,500. Wilson looks to be the lead back with 18 carries last week for the 49ers against the Rams. While Deebo will continue to get his I think Wilson is the look here for a possible grinder of a game against the Panthers. There’s also the possibility he gets a good chunk of carries holding onto a lead late in the game.
Damien Harris, RB: $5,600. With it looking like Bailey Zappe will start again at QB this week against Detroit, expect the Pats to commit to the ground game like they did against the Packers last week. While I think Zappe will throw more with first team snaps and a solid game plan to attack this porous Lions Defense, the offense will flow threw Harris. The Lions are allowing a league worst 5.6 Yards per attempt on the ground.
Cooper Kupp, WR: $9,600. Yes I am paying up for Kupp. Stafford is struggling to stay upright against teams with a solid pass rush which means he needs to get it out quick. Which means Kupp. He had 19 targets and 14 catches against the 49ers last week, and 15 targets and 13 catches against the Bills week 1 when Stafford was under pressure. (Also they were behind). It could be a little tougher with the Cowboys sitting at 5th in pass DVOA, but I don’t care. He’s getting the ball.
Mike Evans, WR: $6,900. If we’re gonna have Brady we should probably have some guys for him to throw to and cash in on some stacks. Evans had 6 catches for 103 yards and 2 scores last week and Evans is a beast in the Red Zone. He is tied for the league lead with 3 Red Zone TDs on 5 Targets despite missing a week.
Christian Kirk, WR: $6,600. Kirk only had 2 catches last week, but was still targeted 9 times. He is clearly Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option garnering 28% of the targets up to this point. I see a bounce back game here against the Texans. With the Jags struggling to rush the ball look for them to go to the air early and often to get up on Houston this week.
Cade Otton, TE: $2,500. It’s possible Kyle Rudolph plays a bigger role this week with Cameron Brate being out, but I think Otton endeared himself to Brady last week after taking over the top spot catching 3 of 4 balls thrown his way.
Tyler Allgeier, Flex: $4,700. It will be a tough test against the Bucs, so I’m not sure how many carries the Falcons will garner if they get behind. That being said Allgeier looked good last week when he was in the game rushing 10 times for 84 yards and catching one pass of 20. While he did split pretty much 50/50 with Caleb Huntley I think Allgeier starts to take the lions share of the work going forward with Patterson hitting the IR. The Falcons will try and keep the Bucs offense off the field by running the ball early.
Cowboys, DST: $2,500. I think the Cowboys are highly under valued here against the Rams. Yes, the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs and have Cooper Kupp who we are taking, but they also can’t protect Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in Sack Percentage at 9.55%. Two of the teams ahead of them are the Bills and 49ers, and we saw what they did to the Rams. Also the Cowboys have yet to allow a team to score 20 points this season. With this total only sitting at 42 I think it could easily happen again.
College Football Week 6 Free Plays
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Utah vs UCLA +4.5 O/U 65
This is probably the best game in the Pac 12. UCLA took care of Washington as a dog last week and now they are sitting pretty as a dog again to Utah. If you have watched Utah play football over the past 10 years, you would see that the Ute’s are a much better home team than on the road. UCLA has a good coach in Chip Kelly and a very strong offense ranking 10th in success rate. They are a positive 2.4 net yards per play compared to Utah at 1.78. UCLA’s defense could certainly use some work, but they at least were able to shut down Washington last week allowing only 65 yards rushing and forcing two interceptions. Utah just came off of a big game vs Oregon State and they might be looking ahead here to USC. Take the points.
UCLA +4.5 – 2.5 stars
Kansas State vs Iowa State +2 O/U 45
This is one heck of a low total! I don’t know why everyone likes Iowa State so much. The Clones beat a bad Iowa team and it took them all the way until the end of the game. Kansas State is a legit team this year and they already had their hiccup vs a 4-1 Tulane team. They have already beaten two very good Big 12 teams in Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State struggled mightily vs Kansas who is good this year, but not great. Iowa State’s loss vs Baylor isn’t aging to well with Baylor looking bad vs Oklahoma State last weekend. The Wildcats have a massive sack margin of seven, and are very stout in the trenches. Iowa State’s offensive line is very suspect and prone to giving up sacks and yards. The Wildcat’s also have a better red zone success rate both on offense and defense. I think they get the win so lay the small number.
Kansas State -2 – 2 stars
North Carolina vs Miami -4 O/U 65.5
After Miami’s performance against Middle Tennessee State, I do not know how this Miami team is laying chalk to a high powered offense like North Carolina. The Hurricanes haven’t played anyone except for Texas A&M and they lost that game out-right. The big mismatch here for me is against the pass. The Cane’s cannot stop the pass for the life ranking 95th in opponent Pass EPA where North Carolina ranks 8th in Pass EPA on offense. Miami’s strength of schedule only ranks 114th while having a net negative yards per play at -.34. North Carolina’s strength of schedule ranks 84th with a 1.28 net yards per play. The wrong team is favored here. I like the Tarheels to win outright.
North Carolina +4 – 2.5 stars
Rob V: Saturday CFB and MLB WILD CARD PLAY OF THE YEAR info
Saturday MLB WILD CARD Round 100% Play of the Year + CFB American Athletics Conf. Game of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Side, CFB Top Total and 4 more best bets headline huge card. Comp play below.
Free CFB Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, October 8th
After a 4-2 week last week we are back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are now 22-17 (+$1095, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in and 3 more games on the radar for the weekend! Best of luck if you tail!
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The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Louisiana for a noon eastern kickoff against the LSU Tigers in Death Valley. Rocky top is off a bye after beating Florida 8-33 the week before and enter with a perfect 4-0 record while the Tigers come in with a 4-1 record after winning at Auburn last week 21-17. The key matchup in this game will be the potent Tennessee offense against the LSU defense. The Tigers weakness is throwing the football but they will be going up against Tennessee’s weakness on defense as they rank 128th while giving up 309.25 passing yards per game. Both teams look to run the ball first but could have some trouble as both defenses are stout against the run. This game will come down to red zone scoring and more specifically red zone touchdowns. Tennessee has scored 19 RZ TDs (9th in nation) and LSU has only given up 4 on D (6th). While LSU’s offense is not made up of many big plays, they will have the opportunity to compile yardage on the Vols defense that ranks 94th in the nation, allowing 407 yards per game. Overall, these teams are very evenly matched but in what should be a tight game, I would rather have Brian Kelly on my sideline than Josh Heupel. However, this is more of a situational play than anything. LSU at home is historically a tough place to play and Tennessee could easily be looking ahead to their matchup at home next week against Nick Saban and the #1 Alabama Crimson Tide. Getting a field goal here is too good to pass up and we played it earlier in the week for 2% of our bankroll. Take LSU +3
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MLB Postseason Betting Strategy
MLB POSTSEASON BETTING STRATEGY by Nick Hub
Over the course of the long 162-game regular season, it is possible to identify betting opportunities for certain clubs, based on the success of the starting pitchers, bullpen strategy and offensive production in certain situations. All of those factors can change in the postseason as teams usually shift to four-starter pitching rotations, which in turn impacts the dynamics of a club’s bullpen.
Momentum plays a huge role in how teams fare during the postseason. Baseball players are streaky, and sometimes the difference between winning and losing a series is which team is hotter. Certain top competitors and higher seeds might take their foot off the gas down the stretch. With a guaranteed playoff spot and home-field advantage secured, there’s little reason to exert 100% effort. Meanwhile, certain lower seeds are forced to scratch, claw, and fight their way into the playoffs. However, you also have to factor in that the higher seed has their guys on normal rest which could be an edge.
The significance of the starting pitching matchup, along with the strength of both bullpens cannot be overstated. A team that has a shaky bullpen is a major concern. It’s crucial to dive deeper into the pitching matchup, especially during the postseason. As I mentioned, many teams will cut a starting pitching rotation by one pitcher, many of its best arms will see more playing time. That means that certain players will see more wear and tear down the stretch of the postseason. Always check when the last time each starting pitcher took the mound.
When handicapping a postseason matchup, check to see if each team faced off in the regular season. While things change on a daily basis in the MLB, these past performances can provide a glimpse into the future. Also, having guys with postseason experience on the team who know how to handle themselves during this time can provide a big edge. Teams with postseason veterans on the team can give that squad better leadership.
During the playoffs, there are also certain scenarios to look for. Team A is up 3-1 in the 7-game series and saves their best arms in game 5 to set up the next 2 games of the series. Team A won the night before and threw their best arms out of the pen while Team B saved their best arms for the next game. Coaches don’t like to lose but great coaches know they have to mail in certain games to put them in better position for the next game(s). This is very important when playing totals. Watch coaches press conferences and read up on that team’s beat writers on Twitter to get a better idea of the game plan for the next game.
Bettors must also look for dramatic betting line movement on MLB postseason games. Playoff games see more action from the public and that can lead to wide and rapid swings in game betting lines. This might involve fading the public, following reverse line movement, and simply outworking other gamblers. There are far fewer games. The bookie has all his attention on just a few games. That results in tighter lines. Just as the teams themselves up the ante during this time of year, we need to also elevate the level of our handicapping. If there is not a desirable spot, we need to leave it alone.
