The TOUR Championship – Preview & Picks

By

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August 23, 2022

Congrats to all the Patrick Cantlay backers last week at the BMW Championship. He had been trending towards a win in the past few events, so I’m glad he was finally able to pull it off. Patrick Cantlay became the ninth player to win multiple titles this season, tying the most in a single season in the last 20 years (2018-19). He’s also the fifth defending champion to win this season, the most in a single season since 2007.

The PGA TOUR comes to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club. The top 30 players will square off this week with the winner taking home the FedEx Cup. While the TOUR Championship has been held at this venue since 2005, this is only the fourth time the staggered-start format will be used.

Before I go any further, I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has been reading my articles. It’s also been great interacting with everyone on Twitter and Instagram.

Tournament Information:

Dates: August 25th, 2022 – August 28th, 2022
Location: Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Course: East Lake Golf Club
Course Type: Tree-lined Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,346 Yards
Format: 72-hole stroke play (Staggered Start/ Starting Strokes)
Greens: MiniVerde ultradwarf Bermuda .100”
Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .400”
Rough: Tifway bermudagrass 2.5”
Bunkers: 74
Water Hazards: 5 (In-Play 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 6,090 sq. ft.
Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
Purse: $75,000,000 / Winner $18 Million
FedEx Cup Points: The winner receives the FedExCup
Field/ Cut: 30 (29) Players| No Cut
Course Scoring Average:
- 2021: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 51
  2020: 68.92 (-1.08), Rank 24 of 41
  2019: 70.03 (+0.03), Rank 14 of 49
Historic Cut Line:
- N/A

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Course Architect: Tom Bendelow (1904)
Renovation: Donald Ross (1913), Rees Jones (1994, 2008, 2016)
Comparable Courses:
- TPC Southwind – FedEx St. Jude Championship (RESULTS)
- Quail Hallow – Wells Fargo Championship (RESULTS)
- Sedgefield Country Club – Wyndham Championship (RESULTS)

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 6 PM
Round 2: Friday, August 26th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 6 PM
Round 3: Saturday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 2:30 PM
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 7 PM
Round 4, Sunday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12 PM – 1:30 PM
- NBC – 1:30 PM – 6 PM

Weather:

Thursday: Thunderstorms 74 F, 6 mp/h SSE, 85% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
Friday: Scattered Thunderstorms 76 F, 5 mp/h SSW, 79% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 6 mp/h E, 73% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Isolated Thunderstorms 78 F, 8 mp/h ESE, 75% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

To see the current FedEx Cup Standings, you can click the following link.

Starting Position/ Strokes:

Seed	Player	Starting Score
1	Scottie Scheffler	-10
2	Patrick Cantlay	-8
3	Will Zalatoris*	-7
4	Xander Schauffele	-6
5	Sam Burns	-5
6	Cameron Smith	-4
7	Rory McIlroy	-4
8	Tony Finau	-4
9	Sepp Straka*	-4
10	Sungaje Im	-4
11	Jon Rahm	-3
12	Scott Stallings*	-3
13	Justin Thomas	-3
14	Cameron Young*	-3
15	Matt Fitzpatrick*	-3
16	Max Homa*	-2
17	Hideki Matsuyama	-2
18	Jordan Spieth	-2
19	Joaquin Niemann	-2
20	Viktor Hovland	-2
21	Collin Morikawa	-1
22	Billy Horschel	-1
23	Tom Hoge	-1
24	Corey Conners	-1
25	Brian Harman	-1
26	K.H. Lee*	E
27	J.T. Poston*	E
28	Sahith Theegala*	E
29	Adam Scott	E
30	Aaron Wise	E

* Players making their TOUR Championship debut

Course/ Tournament History:

In 2007, the TOUR Championship was introduced. Back then, it was the final event of the four-tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs. Starting in 2019, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events. With that change, the TOUR Championship was moved up in the schedule to late August from mid-September.

From 1997 to 2003, this event alternated between the Champions Golf Club and East Lake Golf Club. Starting in 2005, East Lake become the permanent home for the final tournament in the PGA TOUR Playoffs.

East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904 and is the oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta. The first course was built from 1906-07 before renowned golf architect Donald Ross redesigned the course in 1913. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations overseen by Rees Jones, the son of Robert Trent Jones.

The winner of the TOUR Championship will receive a 5-year PGA Tour exemption. This is a recent change made in 2019 as the exemption was only 3 years from 1998-2018. In addition to the exemption, the winner also receives $18 million an increase from the $15 million Patrick Cantlay received last season.

72-Hole Record: 257, Tiger Woods (2007)

18-Hole Record: 60, Zach Johnson (3rd round, 2007)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

East Lake Golf Club was originally designed by Tom Bendelow and underwent renovations by both Donald Ross and Rees Jones. It’s a Par 70 that’s listed at 7,346 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. East Lake is a classic tree-lined, parklands layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. The fairways are some of the narrowest on Tour so accuracy off the tee will be placed at a premium this week. If players do find the rough, it can be extremely penal making their approach shot very difficult. The average green size is around the Tour average so players will have some room to miss.

The four Par 3’s range between 197 yards and 235 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.

No. 9 is the longest par 3 on the course playing over 230 yards. The tee shot is relatively straight forward with the only real threat being the greenside bunkers. The green two-tiered makes for some difficult putts depending on the pin locations.

No. 15 is a Par 3 playing 214 yards that features an island green. Players will have to account for the wind pushing the ball right off the tee towards the water. This green is very small with the only bail-out being the bunker along the left side.

The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 389 with the longest being No. 14, playing 520 yards.

No. 1 is the first of the Par 5’s that have been shortened to play as Par 4s for the TOUR Championship. Off the tee, players will try and position the ball on the left side of the fairway to avoid a blind approach shot. This green is challenging as it severely slopes from back right to front left.

No. 8 is a difficult Par 4 that requires players to be accurate off the tee. A body of water runs along the left side of the entire hole with fairway bunkers on the right. The green is one of the largest on the course but is guarded by big bunkers.

No. 14 is the second of two Par 5’s that have been shortened to play as Par 4s for the TOUR Championship. Despite being listed at 500+ yards, it does play shorter and it is downhill. Player’s second shots can be difficult given the lie and the numerous threats around the green. There’s water along the left and back of the green with bunkers guarding the right side.

The two Par 5’s are No. 6 and No. 18. In terms of distance No. 18 is the longest listed at just under 600 yards.

No. 6 is a slight dogleg right with tall pines guarding the right side preventing players from taking a very aggressive line. With a good drive, players should be able to reach this short Par 5 in two. If players do miss short on either side, they’ll likely find the greenside bunkers.

No. 18 is a downhill Par 5 that requires a great drive to have a possibility of reaching the green in two. If players do decide to layup short of the green, two fairway bunkers do come into play. The green is slightly elevated and guarded by deep bunkers on the left and right.

Featured Holes: 9, 15, 17, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Approach
Scrambling
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Event/ Comparable Course History

The Field/ Odds:

The odds for this event are different from any other tournament as they have the starting position factored in. Also, another thing to keep an eye out for when placing a bet this week is to verify if the odds are including/ not including starting strokes. The odds are significantly different as you can imagine, and may mess up your bet if you choose the wrong option. For all of my bets this week, I will be placing them WITH starting strokes included.

There are 29 players in the field out of the possible 30 that have qualified for the final event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Scottie Scheffler (+250), will start at East Lake in the lead this week. He’s won four PGA Tour events this season headlined by his victory at Augusta National. Last week at Wilmington Country Club he finished T3. Scheffler has played at East Lake Golf Club twice before. In 2020, he had the 2nd best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) and in 2021, he had the 17th best.

Patrick Cantlay (+400), won the FedEx Cup at East Lake last season after starting in the lead (-10). He’s coming off a victory at the BMW Championship and will start in 2nd place (-8) this week. Before that win, he had six top-15 finishes in his last seven starts on Tour.

Xander Schauffele (+700), will start in 4th place this week at East Lake (-6). He has three wins on Tour this season including the Travelers Championship and Genesis Scottish Open. Last week he struggled on Sunday at Wilmington Country Club to finish T3. Xander won this event in 2017 and finished with the best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) in 2020.

Will Zalatoris (+1200), will start in 3rd place this week at East Lake (-7). This will be the first time that he’s played in the TOUR Championship. Zalatoris won his first PGA Tour event two weeks ago at TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship). Last week, he withdrew from the BMW Championship after tweaking his back. He’s expected to play this week but it’s unsure if he’ll be 100%.

Previous Winners in the field (Tour Championship); Patrick Cantlay (’21), Rory McIlroy (’19, ’16), Xander Schauffele (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Billy Horschel (’14), Henrik Stenson (’13)

Notable Withdraws: Will Zalatoris (back)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

Previous Winners/ Scores:

2021: Patrick Cantlay (-21)*
- Price: 4-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
2020: Dustin Johnson (-18)*
- Price: 15-8
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
2019: Rory McIlroy (-18)*
- Price: 9-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -5 (5)
2018: Tiger Woods (-11)
- Price: 14-1
2017: Xander Schauffele (-12)
- Price: 100-1

(* In 2019, the staggered stroke play format was introduced.)

Picks (Outrights) (WITH STARTING STROKES):

Scottie Scheffler (+260) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.60 Units

Before I get into my reasoning, I know this event is awful in terms of odds. It’s one of my least favorite events to bet, so I’m going to keep the card light for a reason. There is some value out there but, it’s far and few between.

I’m going with a solo outright this week. If we look at the past three winners since the staggered-start format has been introduced, two of the three winners started in the lead. There’s no doubt that giving Scheffler a two-stroke lead over the field provides him with a significant advantage. He’s been the best player on Tour this season amassing four wins, more than any other player.

Scottie has played at East Lake Golf Club twice before. He had the 2nd best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) in 2020 and the 17th best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) last season.

In terms of recent form, Scheffler has struggled a bit missing the cut in two of his last four starts on Tour. However, we saw him play well last week at Wilmington Country Club finishing T3. He only lost strokes in one category (Around the Green) and gained strokes putting for the first time in his last five starts. Another positive trend has been his accuracy off the tee, where he’s gained strokes over the field in his last four starts.

He’s shown he can play well here and enters this week off a solid performance in the BMW Championship. Given the lead over the rest of the field, I’ll be shocked if anyone can catch him.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units

Picks (Outrights) (WITHOUT STARTING STROKES):

I’m not placing these bets this week but here are my selections if you’re looking for some additional picks.

Jon Rahm (+900) – DraftKings
- Risk – to win – Units

Xander Schauffele (+1200) – Caesars
- Risk – to win – Units

Viktor Hovland (+3000) – DraftKings
- Risk – to win – Units

Picks (Top 5) (WITH STARTING STROKES):

Xander Schauffele (+110) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.55 Units

Xander Schauffele has found his game late this year winning in back-to-back weeks at the Travelers and the Genesis Scottish Open. Following those two victories, he’s finished T15/ T57/ T3. He had a shot last week at the BMW Championship but struggled Sunday shooting 1 over-par.

He’s played in TOUR Championship five times before and has finished 1/7/2/1/3 in 72-hole score w/o starting strokes. His overall game has been much better this year, especially his ball-striking. Xander does struggle a bit at times with his short game but has gained strokes around the green in six of his last nine events. Given his improved play and course history, I think he’ll do well again this week at East Lake.

Jon Rahm (+210) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.05 Units

Jon Rahm comes into East Lake Golf Club in great form finishing T5 and T8 in the first two Playoff events. He’s played in TOUR Championship five times before and had the low 72-hole score w/o starting strokes last year.

In terms of course fits, Jon Rahm has to be one of the best. His ability to drive the ball long but also extremely accurate should provide him an advantage over the field. Where he gets into trouble is his play around and on the green. However, if we look at his recent play he’s gained strokes around the green in four of his last five events. His putting has also been better gaining strokes in both of his last two starts.

While Rahm hasn’t had the best of years, only winning once at the Mexico Open. He’s still one of the best players in the world and should do well this week.

Just missed T5 Placements: Rory McIlroy (+140) – Caesars, Sam Burns (+300) – Caesars

Total Risk on Top 5 Placements: 1.00 Units

Picks (Top 10) (WITH STARTING STROKES):

Justin Thomas (+110) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.55 Units

Justin Thomas was 7 shots back at the PGA Championship with 18 holes to go and was able to make up that ground. Now, he’ll have 72 holes to try and complete that same task. To be fair, we don’t need him to win the TOUR Championship, we just need him to finish inside the top 10.

He’s played at East Lake six times before having success in every event. In 2019, Justin Thomas started in the lead but would falter as Rory McIlroy would come from 5 shots back to win. In each of the six times he’s played here, he’s never finished worse than 9th in 72-hole score w/o starting strokes. JT isn’t in the best of form right now finishing T53/T13/T52 in his last three events. Despite that, he’s shown he can have success here and should be able to finish inside the top 10.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+160) – Bet365
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.80 Units

Matthew Fitzpatrick won his first PGA Tour Event earlier this season at the U.S. Open. Since that victory, he’s finished T6/ T21/ T5/ T48. He struggled last week at Wilmington Country Club, especially with his irons. That was the first time all season that he lost strokes on approach. The one positive for Fitzpatrick was his putting, gaining over a stroke on the green.

This will be the first time that Matthew Fitzpatrick tee’s it up at East Lake. He starts at -3, which is T11. Despite his lack of course knowledge, he fits the course model for success. His accuracy off the tee should allow him a slight advantage as the rough can be extremely penal. Fitzpatrick is an excellent ball-striker with a putter to match so he should do well in his TOUR Championship debut.

Just missed T10 Placements: Viktor Hovland (+225) – Caesars

Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 1.00 Units

Total Risk on the Tour Championship: 3.00 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Week 0 CFB Best Bet

By

Michael Fordham

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August 23, 2022

Last year in CFB, I hit at a 55% clip(106-88-1) and netted +27.35u. I will likely add a play or two more closer to Saturday, but there is one spot I wanted to lock in now before this line gets steamed up. I’ll be breaking down games on my YouTube channel throughout the season, and if you want to receive a text when I release my plays and write-ups, join my Telegram group!

*CFB(1.5u): Illinois -10.5(-110) vs Wyoming–Sat 8/28; 3 PM CT

Bret Beilema has done a pretty good job during his short tenure in Champagne. Despite inheriting a mess from Lovie Smith, Beilema led the Illini to a 5-win first season, which included a Week 0 win over Nebraska and a pair of road upsets at Minnesota and Penn State. I think this offense will take the next step with QB Tommy DeVito now at the helm. DeVito fizzled out at Syracuse, but the former 4-star pocket passer had the detriment of playing behind one of the worst pass-blocking OL’s in the country. His best season was in 2019, when he completed 63% of his passes and held nearly a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. This is a much better system for DeVito, and I think he’s an instant upgrade from both Brandon Peters and Artur Sitkowski. However, not everything will fall on DeVito’s arm like it did at Syracuse. RB Chase Brown ran for 1,000 yards in 2021 at almost 6 yards/carry, WR Isaiah Williams is a true X-factor with elite speed, and TE Luke Ford(formerly at Georgia) is a former high-4 star that I believe will be the centerpiece of this passing offense. Wyoming’s strength is their pass rush, but I really don’t like how they stack up on the interior with this Illinois OL. I also have a hard time seeing their LB’s stepping up against a dynamic RB like Brown and a physical OL. Their secondary is predominantly made up of transfers and, by nature, has almost no continuity.

The transfer portal ravaged this Wyoming offense over the offseason. Starting QB Levi Williams transferred to Utah State, top RB Xazavian Valladay transferred to Arizona State, and top WR Isaiah Neyor transferred to Texas. This offense ranked just 81st in offensive FEI with those pieces, so without them, this could truly be one of the worst offenses in the Mountain West. Projected starting QB Andrew Peasley has atrocious numbers throughout his career(54% completion, 6.4 Y/A, 7 TD vs 5 INT) and is no real threat in the vertical passing game. With the loss of a big play WR like Neyor, that becomes even more true. While RB Titus Swen averaged nearly 6 YPC last year in a secondary role, this is a tough matchup considering Illinois’s strength is their LB core. Calvin Hart Jr is back from injury and is, by my estimation, and All-Conference caliber LB. Illinois can truly sell out to stop the run considering Peasley and this Cowboy WR room likely won’t be able to connect in the vertical passing game. The Illini held a Top-30 defense in America a year ago; I expect them to impose their will on this Wyoming offense.

This is a low-variance game(implied by the low total), but this line is short. I’m higher on this Illinois offense than most and think this is absolutely a game the Illini should win by at least 2 TD’s.

August 23rd, MLB Free Picks

By

Kurt B

-

August 23, 2022

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JUNE 10: Ranger Suarez #55 of the Philadelphia Phillies throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park on June 10, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Phillies F5 -.5 (-125)

Reds’ starter Nick Lodolo is going up against a Phillies lineup that likes to feast off left-handed pitching.

The Phillies rank in the top 10 of many offensive categories against LHP. Philadelphia ranks 5th in wOBA (.338), 7th in ISO (.176), 7th in wRC+ (116), and 7th in batting average (.263)

Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been on a nice roll as of late. Over his last six starts, he has given up less than one earned in five outings.

We hope the Phillies can jump to an early lead and cash after the F5 to remove any doubt from the Phillies bullpen.

Guardians/Padres u4 F5 (+100)

Like many, it’s safe to say Mike Clevinger likes pitching at Petco Park. Pitching at home, his ERA drops to 2.96 compared to 4.02 on the road.

Guardians’ starter Aaron Civale has had two quality outings since coming off the IL. Combined with his last two starts, Civale has pitched ten innings giving up three runs on six hits while striking out 14.

Both teams’ lineups have been relatively cold over the last two weeks.

Team Ranks: Last 14 Days

Padres
Average: 18th
ISO: 22nd
SLG%: 16th
OBP: 7th
wOBA: 16th
wRC+:15th

Guardians
Average: 8th
ISO: 25th
SLG%: 17th
OBP: 14th
wOBA: 18th
wRC+:16th

Rob Vinciletti Tuesday Champions League Soccer + Subway Series

By

Rob Vinciletti

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August 23, 2022

Tuesday Card has a rare 6* MLB Blowout headlining in bases along with the WNBA Playoff Game of the Month and another Solid Tennis play. Soccer Comp below— BONUS SUBWAY SERIES Play OVER 8.5 Runs

The Champions league reverse fixture is on Benfica over Dynamo Kiev at 3:00 eastern. We also will go with the under 3 here. This may be a heavy lay here but Benfica should coast to a solid win here and if one is so inclined using the Asian Handicap at -1.5 with less juice is certainly a viable option. Benfica on the last meeting 2-0 and Kiev must have though they had a bus in front oi their net as they were unable to penetrate the Benfica back field. Benfica is a top flight Portuguese league team and finished 3rd overall in the league. They have ripped the cotton 78 times in 38 fixtures. Kiev was unable to even play league action last year. Ukraine, however is now ramping up their soccer leagues. Benfica has won 11 straight and plays at home. Kiev has to score at least twice here and Benfica can be patient and let the scoring chances come to them. Benfica bags another win here in what looks to be a lower scoring game. On Tuesday a Powerful MLB Card is up and the lead play is a rare 6* MLB Blowout, we also have a Solid WNBA Playoff Game of the Month and tennis which has been solid. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the Sm play go with Under 3 in the Benfica vs Kiev game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

August 23rd MLB Play

By

Michael Fordham

-

August 23, 2022

After my best week of the season, I started out the new week with an 0-for. Still, my MLB record on the year sits at 144-131-5, +7.57u. I’m sticking with one play for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 ML(-115) vs Rangers–7:40 PM CT

It has been an overall disappointment for Rockies SP German Marquez this year, but he enters tonight in perhaps his best form of 2022. Marquez has recorded a quality start(6+ IP, 3 or less ER) in 6 of his last 7 starts and is a guy that has a track record of managing the conditions of Coors Field(3.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in ‘21). This Rangers offense has undoubtedly improved in this role throughout the summer, but this is also not the easiest spot after wrapping up their 4 game set in Minneapolis late last night. I’ll trust Marquez to continue his quality start stretch tonight.

Rangers SP Dane Dunning is a “play on” at home but a clear “play against” on the road. Dunning’s road WHIP sits above 1.65 across each of the past 2 seasons, and now he enters a nightmarish matchup pitching at Coors Field. The Rockies swung the bats well over the weekend, plating 19 runs in their series win over the Giants. Despite this offense’s struggles on the road, this has been a trustworthy offense to back in their home ballpark all year(if not throughout the course of their franchise’s existence). I’m getting both Dunning and this Rockies’ offense in the exact role I want in order to make this wager.

Given the Rockies hold the 3rd worst bullpen numbers in baseball, it’s pretty indefensible to play this over the full game. We’re actually getting a slightly better price in the F5, so I’ll isolate the segment of this matchup I like best.

Podcast 52 – 22 – NFL Preseason Week 3 – Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Draft – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

August 23, 2022

We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes solo after his mini-vacation to Minneapolis for a wedding. Today, we talk about NFL preseason football and fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts. Should you have any questions, please email us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com for our Monday mailbag section or tweet us @TheOddsBreakers. Have a wonderful week!

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Premiums, 8.23 and CFB Clarification

By

Chris R. Farley

-

August 23, 2022

Anyone else suffer from insomnia? I do, hence this 3:45am local time post. Yay. This is why I like the ol’ Delta 8 gummy – best sleep aid ever. Skipped it tonight and now we see the results. Anywho, might as well send you all an early email while my restless ass is awake.

Four weeks ago I gave out Notre Dame at +15 for 1.5 units. That seems dumb now since many books moved that line up to +16 or even +16.5, so we’re seeing better numbers. Find the best number you can and put 1.5 units on it. Officially we’ll keep it at +15, even though that sucks for me, but I still think that line is wrong. I have it as Ohio State -11.

Also, the third week of the NFL preseason is bound to be more unpredictable. Our 8-1, +9 unit run was awesome, but don’t be shocked if/when I have very few picks this weekend. I’m not in the business of betting on something solely because we’re on a hot streak. In fact, that’s usually a big-time mistake. Regression cometh for all of us.

Onto more picks and I’ll continue to add to our CFB picks, too.

MLB Leans (not official plays):

Cardinals (-180)

Orioles (+126)

Mets (+105)

Rangers/Rockies under 11 (-120)

WNBA Playoffs (1-8, -9.05 units):

Liberty/Sky over 165 (-110), to win 1.5 units

For new premium customers who don’t know, we were absolutely slaying the WNBA as the regular season ended. As you can tell, not so much in the playoffs. Wonky results and weird lines have thrown us off, but we like the Tuesday/Wednesday slates better. I’ll start with this game. The Sky finally found their rhythm on offense 3 nights go, destroying the Liberty by 38 points to tie the series. Chicago’s probably the right side today, too, but I’d rather take the over. NY couldn’t shoot for shit in game two, but both offenses have found success in this series. With desperation setting in on both sides and when there’s bound to be plenty of free throws shot at the end of every quarter, I love the over in this contest.

(Wednesday)

Sun -6 (-110), to win 2 units

Sun TT over 85.5 (-105), to win 1 unit

The Dallas Wings are a formidable outfit but their game two win felt very flukey. You won’t see the Sun shoot that poorly from beyond the arc very often (28%) but that was the difference in the game. The Wings shot nearly 42% from 3 point land and nearly 50% from the field. Expect the Sun to look like themselves again – love them to blow open this game early and I expect them to maintain a lead throughout.

CFB Picks (0-0):

(Week 0)

Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units

Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.

(Week 1)

Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.

CFB Week 0 Play

By

Chris R. Farley

-

August 22, 2022

Hi Everyone!

We already gave away Notre Dame +15 as our first play for CFB Week 1, but Week 0 will still present some opportunities. Here’s our first play of the weekend.

Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units

Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.

August 22nd MLB Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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August 22, 2022

A 2-0, +2u Sunday capped off a 14-5, +9.95u week and brings my overall MLB record to 144-128-5, +10.77u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the new week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-110) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT

If I’m not priced out of backing Mets SP Max Scherzer, I’ll probably be on him. Scherzer has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball over the last decade, delivering a sub-1.00 WHIP in 7 of his last 10 seasons. Additionally, Mad Max is allowing a career low 0.66 HR/9 this season. I am not afraid to play against the Yankees right now considering they have been shut out in 3 of their last 8 games and are just 5-14 in the month of August. Even over a larger sample, a 112 wRC+ vs righties at home since June 1st is relatively unimpressive.

The Mets bring a ton of momentum into tonight’s game after another comeback victory against the Phillies yesterday, a game in which they plated 10 runs. They’ll get a favorable matchup facing off with Domingo German. German held an ERA north of 5.00 at Yankee Stadium last year and has shown little-to-nothing that inspires confidence this year. The Mets hold a 117 wRC+ vs righties away from home since June 1st and are a professional lineup from 1-9.

I would heavily advise to isolate the SP matchup and avoid any shenanigans in the later innings.

*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+105) vs Angels–6:10 PM CT

This is a clear mismatch that not many people will give credence to. Since June 1st, the Rays rank 5th in baseball with a 140 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. In that same stretch, the Angels have amassed a league worst 60 wRC+ vs lefties away from their home park and have been terrible in this role all year. To make matters worse, Shohei Ohtani is unlikely to play tonight due to a stomach bug, making this weak lineup even weaker.

Rays SP Jeffrey Springs has been incredibly reliable at the Trop this year, bringing a 2.27 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at home into tonight’s start. Angels SP Tucker Davidson holds a 1.74 WHIP on the year and has walked an astounding 6.75 batters per 9 innings throughout his career.

The Rays will also hold a sizable bullpen edge in the later innings. While Brooks Raley and Peter Fairbanks figure to be unavailable, the Rays pen(5th in bullpen WHIP) is a very deep unit. The Angels bullpen is mediocre at best and is sure to be unreliable over the last month of the season.

We should not be getting this at plus-money.

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) @ Cubs–7:05 PM CT

We have cashed with the Cardinals 6(!) straight days and are now +14.21u on our action in Cardinals games this year. With how red hot this team is, I am on “auto bet” mode with them until given a reason not to be.

Over their current 7 game win streak, the Red Birds are averaging 8 runs/game. I have been able to trust them against left-handed pitching all year, and that’s exactly the spot they find themselves in tonight. Cubs SP Drew Smyly is an adequate Major League starter, but he is certainly attackable. Smyly is giving up over 1 hit per inning this year, holds a mediocre 1.25 WHIP, and is allowing 1.6 HR/9 at Wrigley Field this season. The Cubs traded away most(if not all) of their valuable relievers and surely will finish with a bottom 10 bullpen in the league.

I know we’ve had success backing Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery since he joined the club a few weeks ago, but this is his first road start as a Red Bird. Given his career inconsistencies on the road, I feel much better isolating this Cardinals offense at a very reasonable number and price.

Premier League Free Play

By

Steve Norman

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August 22, 2022

Scratching and clawing this season out the gate. So close to having big weekends and just slightly off the mark for pushes and minimal Units gained. Good news staying in the green as we are figuring out which clubs are shaping up to be real contenders this season. Nothing better than some 3pm Monday action to kick your work week off!

Current PL Record: 17-14 +3.93 Units

LVP ML -150 1 Unit

Not exactly the start we expected from either club the first two weeks of action. Manchester United has yet to show up this season and is coming off a 4-0 blowout at Brentford. Usually I am a sucker for a bounce back narrative, loving a club to right their wrongs after that kind of showing; especially at home. It just doesn’t set up well for MU here with an LVP club coming into Old Trafford who hasn’t exactly been playing to the top notch quality we expect.

I have been very critical of LVP from the jump this season and for good reason, they are suppose to be a world class club. First match they were a shell of themselves somehow finding a way to escape out of Fulham with a draw. Followed up with an undisciplined performance against Crystal Palace going a man down due to a selfish red card. Fortunately finding a way to come back down both a player and a goal for a draw. The point is as this season gets under way and the more we see these clubs perform…. maybe just maybe the competition that LVP has been playing is not as bad as I initially thought. Fulham for example has hit the ground running starting 1-2-0 gaining 5 points on the table. Not bad for a recently promoted club who had to play LVP, travel to Wolverhampton, and then just got done beating Brentford 3-2. Remember that’s Brentford who just took care of MU 4-0 the week prior.

LVP has not been playing polished what-so-ever, but they aren’t losing and have played tougher competition then expected. It is early but the season can get away from them rather quickly the way Arsenal and Man City have been playing; if they do not gain a win here for the points table. With the Man City draw yesterday to Newcastle, the door has been slightly cracked to make up some ground with the top dogs. It is a must win in reality for both clubs who have been struggling. I am taking the club that has more to play for ultimately in this league and is a legit contender. LVP wins match prediction 2-0.