Philly is dominating the first half and fortunately for them they have played two incompetent teams that get in the redzones and come away with no points the second half
They are going to be a backdoor team this year- if this lack of second half production continues offensively… we saw it week 1
Were just on the road and were 6.5 favorites now at home and 6.5 favorites against a team that got beat by who they just dominated (washington)
Line has been holding steady at +6.5 and you know there is a ton of hype on Philly
Philly is due for some adversity and a close game
This is the NFL not every game is going to be a cake walk for Philly and be safe not scoring points in the second half
Trevor Lawrence is the 6th most blitzed Qb in the league at 37 times, but is 30th- of being Hurried during his passes with only 3 times… and Tied for 31st – being sacked only 2 times…. His O-Line is protecting him and he is getting the ball away.
Jags will move the ball with short, fast, high percentage throws…. Running clock… and methodically putting together drives
Philadelphia wins, but this is not going to be an easy one… Jags cover
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Oklahoma vs TCU +6.5 O/U 68.5
This would be a good spot to fade Oklahoma since Texas is on deck had they not lost last week to Kansas State, but that doesn’t mean that the spread is right. TCU hasn’t really played a hard strength of schedule, but I have to give Sonny Dykes some credit for going on the road and beating SMU last weekend. The environment was difficult and the pony express showed up in full force. Oklahoma lost a tough game last weekend at Kansas State but before that, they haven’t played a top 60 team with Nebraska being so bad. Both of these teams rank pretty close in yards per play margin at 2.67 for the Sooners and 2.77 For TCU. Both of these teams are also almost equal in offensive success rate with the Sooners ranking 29th and the Horned Frogs ranking 23rd. TCU believe it or not, looks to have the better defensive line stopping the run at 3.21 yards per rush to Oklahoma’s 3.56. From a coaching perspective, I like Brett Venebles and he will turn out great, but he has almost no experience yet as a head coach so Sonny Dykes gets the nod here. I like TCU to cover this spread and maybe win this game outright.
TCU +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Oklahoma State vs Baylor -2.5 O/U 56.5
Oklahoma State is in a revenge situation here after losing the Big 12 title game to Baylor. I give small credence to revenge, but in this situation the better team is a short favorite. Oklahoma State has had the 146th schedule so far. They haven’t even been on the road yet, and had an early bye giving them two weeks off before this game. The Pokes have a pretty suspect defense in my opinion giving up 5.11 yards per play against some pretty bad teams. Baylor looks very solid so far this year with 1 hiccup loss at BYU in overtime where they showed they still were the better team. I also like the fact that they had faced adversity. Baylor ranks 27th in offensive success rate, and 19th on defense while the Pokes rank 45th and 36th respectively having a much easier schedule. Oklahoma State will try and speed up this game some ranking 3rd in Tempo. This could turn out to be a disaster if they can’t finish drives allowing Baylor to capitalize on a defense that did not return many starter from last year. I like Baylor making this game look easier than it should be.
Baylor -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Alabama vs Arkansas +17.5 O/U 60
This is the best game of the weekend here and I think that the dog has a barking change.
Alabama didn’t play anybody except for Texas so far and that was a road game that they could have lost.
Going back to last year, Alabama has not been all that impressive on the road losing to Texas A&M and almost losing to Florida and Auburn.
I also have to wonder if this Crimson tide team might be looking ahead to A&M in a revenge type spot.
Arkansas went to Alabama last year and kept this game within 13 points, I think at home they can make a statement here with their Talent.
I think KJ Jefferson learned a lot last week from playing at A&M and will find ways to beat Alabama’s defense.
My pure power number is Alabama -14.5 but I would make this game Alabama -13 due to the spot.
Huge Saturday the SEC Game of the Year Headlining along with an Executive Level TIER 1, and a 6* Afternoon side..CFB Ranked $1 overall. We also have a Top MLB Card and Soccer.
The comp pay is on Ohio. St at 3:30 eastern. We have Rutgers in a nasty early season system that is 0-16. The Knights will have a tough time here as they will struggle to score on the vaunted Buckeye defense that is ranked 18th. Rutgers has trouble scoring and if you take out the blowout win over Wagner their numbers are inept. They do have a solid defense. However. Every team they have played has been subpar on offense. Ohio. St can score and score fast and they are ranked 3rd in the nation. Ohio. St has covered 7 of 9 off a 20+ win, 8 of 9 in October games and 6 of 8 in the series. Rutgers has failed to cover the last 6 vs a team over .599, 4 of 5 in October games and 4 of 5 in Conference games. After seeing what Ohio. St did to a better Wisconsin team. It will be hard to see Rutgers stay in this one. Play on Ohio. St.. On Saturday the SEC Game of the Year Headlines a Top card that also has the Executive Level TIER 1 and a Rare 6*. The MLB Card is up and has a Perfect System play. There is also Soccer and more. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to jump on. For the Comp play. Go with Ohio. St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU: 6-10-0
ATS: 0-16-0
Oct 25, 2008 pro Saturday 9 2008 BYU UNLV home 14-7 7-14 7-7 14-7 42-35 -23.5 62.0 7 -16.5 15.0 -0.8 15.8 W L O 0
Oct 03, 2009 pro Saturday 5 2009 CAL USC home 0-10 0-10 0-3 3-7 3-30 5.0 47.0 -27 -22.0 -14.0 -18.0 4.0 L L U 0
Oct 09, 2010 pro Saturday 6 2010 FLA LSU home 0-3 14-17 0-0 15-13 29-33 -7.0 42.0 -4 -11.0 20.0 4.5 15.5 L L O 0
Nov 06, 2010 pro Saturday 10 2010 MCST MIN home 7-0 14-0 3-0 7-8 31-8 -24.0 58.0 23 -1.0 -19.0 -10.0 -9.0 W L U 0
Nov 13, 2010 pro Saturday 11 2010 UTAH NOTD away 3-7 0-7 0-14 0-0 3-28 -5.0 53.5 -25 -30.0 -22.5 -26.2 3.8 L L U 0
Oct 08, 2011 pro Saturday 6 2011 FLA LSU away 0-14 3-10 8-3 0-14 11-41 14.5 42.5 -30 -15.5 9.5 -3.0 12.5 L L O 0
Oct 08, 2011 pro Saturday 6 2011 SDSU TCU home 0-10 0-7 7-3 7-7 14-27 4.5 56.5 -13 -8.5 -15.5 -12.0 -3.5 L L U 0
Oct 08, 2011 pro Saturday 6 2011 VTCH MIAF home 7-0 14-7 3-7 14-21 38-35 -7.5 45.0 3 -4.5 28.0 11.8 16.2 W L O 0
Oct 12, 2013 pro Saturday 7 2013 MARY VIR home 7-6 7-10 6-0 7-10 27-26 -5.0 43.0 1 -4.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 W L O 0
Oct 10, 2015 pro Saturday 6 2015 GEO TEN away 7-3 17-14 0-14 7-7 31-38 -2.0 60.0 -7 -9.0 9.0 0.0 9.0 L L O 0
Oct 17, 2015 pro Saturday 7 2015 NORW IOWA home 0-3 10-13 0-14 0-10 10-40 2.0 41.5 -30 -28.0 8.5 -9.8 18.2 L L O 0
Oct 08, 2016 pro Saturday 6 2016 STAN WAST home 0-7 3-7 7-14 6-14 16-42 -7.0 57.5 -26 -33.0 0.5 -16.2 16.8 L L O 0
Sep 29, 2018 pro Saturday 5 2018 MNEE SFAN home 14-0 0-0 3-0 0-0 17-10 -18.5 42.5 7 -11.5 -15.5 -13.5 -2.0 W L U 1
Oct 27, 2018 pro Saturday 9 2018 NCST SYR away 7-24 13-3 7-14 14-10 41-51 -2.0 66.0 -10 -12.0 26.0 7.0 19.0 L L O 0
Oct 27, 2018 pro Saturday 9 2018 DART HVD home 14-0 7-0 0-7 3-10 24-17 -18.0 43.0 7 -11.0 -2.0 -6.5 4.5 W L U 0
Oct 01, 2021 pro Friday 5 2021 UTST BYU home 3-10 10-14 0-0 7-10 20-34 8.0 65.5 -14 -6.0 -11.5 -8.8 -2.8 L L U 0
UTSA's Joshua Cephus points skyward after scoring a touchdown on a 12-yard pass reception during the second half of their opening Conference USA football game with Middle Tennessee at the Alamodome on Saturday, Sept. 18, 2021. UTSA beat Middle Tennessee 27-13.
UTSA vs MTSU +4.5 O/U 63.5
This game should be a fun one tonight with two teams that really can’t play a lot of defense. The Blue Raiders have scored 34 or more points against all three opponents since week one. They play a faster pace ranking 42nd in seconds per play while allowing over 40 points per game to top 100 football programs. UTSA is pretty high flying themselves scoring 35 or more points in every game minus Texas. The Road runners play at a lighting fast pace ranking 12th in Tempo while ranking 15th in offensive success rate. I think that this game will have some serious points in it based on the power of these offenses and the weakness in the defense. The over is 4-0 this year in UTSA games. Take the over
I released 5 Best Bets for Week 5 yesterday, 2 of which kick off tonight. I have added 2 more plays since and will add AT LEAST 3 team totals tomorrow. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
TT’s I will add on Saturday morning
*1.5u or 2u: Iowa State TT OVER @ Kansas–Sat 10/1; 2:30 PM CT
If we get this at 31 or lower, I will designate this as my first 2u play of the CFB season. Anything above 31 will keep this as a 1.5u play.
*1u: Texas Tech TT UNDER @ Kansas State–Sat 10/1; 11 AM CT
At 24 or above, this will be a 1u play for me. If we were to only get a 23.5, I would still add this as a smaller play.
A rough weekend in college football at 3-7 in Week 4, as we gave plenty back from a 6-2 in Week 3. Now at 22-23 overall on the season. Hoping to bounce back into Week 5. On the bright side we hit our first free play here at Theoddsbreakers.com. Anyhoo…. Let’s go!
This week’s Free Play travels to one of my focus conferences in the Pac 12. (5-2 Pac-12 plays) It’s not my normal Late Night KNAction, although I do have some of those lined up for Saturday as well. (Get All my Plays available right here @theoddsbreakers.com) We look at at an unusual starting time of 2PM Eastern in Salt Lake City, Utah where the Utes will take on the Oregon State Beavers. Current Lines: Utah -10.5 Over/Under 54.5
Both teams come into this match-up at 3-1. The Utes dropped their opener in Gainesville against Florida and has followed that up with dominating performances against subpar units in Southern Utah, San Diego State and Arizona State. The Beavers won their first three against slightly better competition in Boise State, Fresno State and Montana State, before falling to USC 17-14 last week while committing 4 crucial turnovers.
Chance Nolan leads the Beavers attack, but it was his interceptions last week that ultimately led to the OSU loss. Three of the four interceptions occurred when Nolan was getting hit by defenders that threw off the passes so the line will need to protect better in this one. He will need to get back to taking care of the football in order for Oregon State to repeat last seasons upset of Utah. Deshaun Fenwick leads their rushing attack, but he too was stymied last week against USC gaining only 29 yards on 11 totes. Jam Griffin was able to rack up some decent bulk plays on the ground last week for USC and could play more in this one. The Beavers also lost their main Tight End Luke Musgrave and that could have contributed to some of their problems last week for Nolan. If they can’t run the ball however this could get away from them.
For the Utes it will be the Cameron Rising show as always. He is one of the most consistent and effective QBs in college football. The Utes also lost a Tight End last week with Brant Kuithe going down. Kuithe had 148 career receptions for 1,882 yards and 16 scores so this is a huge loss. Dalton Kincais will look to pickup the slack as he did last week with 2 scores, but he will need some help from next man up at TE as the Utes use a substantial amount of 2 TE sets. Tavian Thomas and Jaylon Glover should both see plenty of snaps in the backfield and will look to pound the rock in this one.
Utah’s pass rush and front seven is a big area of concern for the Beavers. They got to ASU QB Emory Jones 5 times last week, and held the Sun Devils to only 6 yards rushing. This defense allowed only a single touchdown for the third consecutive game and should dominate the line of scrimmage in this match-up. Also they have been solid limiting big plays allowing only one 30+ Yard play from scrimmage all season so far. The Utes are 16th overall in yards per game allowed coming in at just under 300.
Oregon’s state’s defense will be the decider however in this one. If they can get some stops and keep Utah away from the long touchdown they have a chance. Utah is not explosive ranking 112th in the country so it’s not out of the question. Look for Utah to have some long sustained drives milking the clock and coming away with points. They are middle of the pack in yards allowed per game at 64th nationally. They kept the USC offense fairly in check last week allowing 357 yards even while being put in tough situations by the turnovers.
For me this game will all be about pace and defense. Oregon State is 116th in plays per game while Utah sits at 59th. That number would be lower for Utah if not for the 4th quarter of the Florida game where they had to hustle. Overall tempo ranks are at 108 and 112 so both teams are not in a hurry. Combine that with the lack of explosive plays for Utah, and the Utah defense not allowing explosive plays and I think there’s a match made in heaven for a low scoring affair, especially if Oregon State limits the turnovers. Wish I’d gotten it at 55 or higher, but I’m still in at 54.5 as I have this at 30-21 Utah in my projections.
Gimme the Under 54.5 for 1.5 Units. I’m also leaning toward Oregon State with the points if it goes up from the 10.
Back for free premium play for Saturday!! We are 18-15 (55%, +$360, +1.3% CLV) in College Football and 6 plays locked in for this weekend! This will be 2 of 2 free plays for this week. Earlier in the week I gave out a Friday night premium play ! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
The Stanford Cardinal head into Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks on Saturday night at Autzen Stadium. This will be the 3rd straight game against a ranked foe for the Cardinal, as they lost 41-28 to USC and, most recently, to Washington 40-22 last week. The Cardinal have now lost eight straight games to PAC 12 opponents. The Ducks, on the other hand, have won 3 straight after being embarrassed by Georgia in Week 1. Both of these teams have top 10 strength of schedules, accumulate more than 430 yards per game, average over 30 PPG on offense and give up over 30 PPG on defense and prefer playing at a faster pace, ranking 33rd and 54th in tempo. The 6th ranked Oregon’s offense should have no issue moving the football against the Stanford defense that ranks 105th in success rate and ranks 99th in pass coverage. On the other side of the ball, Stanford ranks 7th in the nation in offensive passing and will be going up against Oregon’s weakness on defense. The Ducks give up 301.5 passing yards per game (125th in country) and allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.4% of their passes (130th in the nation). It is also worth mentioning that Oregon is one of the worst tackling defenses in the country. This should be a fun one to sit back with your night cap and watch the points sore. Take Over 63 points for 0.5% of your bankroll.
Get all of my Premium Plays HERE, including monthly all access and my College Football Full Season Special here at TheOddsBreakers!
Welcome to a new Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 2-1 in the high participant Double-Ups
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Jared Goff, QB: $5,900. The top three options in Allen, Jackson, and Hurts are all over $8,000. Too much for my blood. So who to turn to here in week 4? How about the guy who hasn’t attempted less than 34 passes. How about the guy going up against the 31st ranked pass defense in DVOA? How about the guy playing in a game with a total up over 48 points? Vegas think someone is going to score in this game so why not Jared Goff? The downside here is some of his weapons are not likely to play in Amon-St. Brown, DJ Chark, and Deandre Swift. I don’t think there’s a lot of drop-off in Jamaal Williams. I also saw enough when Quintez Cephus was healthy last year to know he has a connection with Goff. Let’s take a shot here.
Jamaal Williams, RB:$6,100. As mentioned above it doesn’t look like Swift will play. If he does this pick will change. Williams went 20 times for 87 yards and 2 TDs against the Vikings last week once he had the backfield mostly to himself. Seattle is 27th vs the rush and injured on defense so like I said I like the Lions to score in this one.
Austin Ekeler, RB:$7,700. Ekeler and the Chargers have been awful rushing the ball up to this point. Ekeler only has 80 yards on 32 carries. He has however been a key cog in the passing game with 21 catches for 139 yards. I think the Houston defense, who is 32nd against the run, coupled with the still less than 100% Herbert is what will get the Chargers to commit to the run this week. My only concern here are injuries on the Chargers O-Line and the fact that they seemed to mail it in last week. Could this be indicative of the teams tolerance of Staley? We will see.
CeeDee Lamb, WR: $6,700. Cooper Rush and Lamb seem to be on the same page. He’s got 23 targets from Rush for 15 catches, 162 Yards and a score. He also dropped a sure 40 yard TD pass last week where he was wide open. The Commanders should pressure Rush more the Giants did, but the secondary can be had.
Richie James Jr., WR: $4,000. Richie was getting decent snap percentage and averaged over 5 targets per game before Sterling Shepard went down. It’s clear this coaching staff doesn’t trust Kenny Golladay, and he did nothing to help that narrative with drops Monday night. Richie’s playing time is only going to go up. He’s really Rick James Jr. Bitch! Big value on this Superfreak.
Stefon Diggs, WR: $8,400. With all these solid mid-level and value options, I had to get a top tier player in somewhere. Diggs couldn’t find the end zone last week against Miami, but he’s the top option on Sunday’s slate and gets the ball in his hands whether the Bills are ahead or behind. The Ravens have been so bad against the pass that even Joe Flacco put some points up against them. Tua put up 6 TDs, and even the Pats moved the ball through the air. Look for Diggs to approach 10 catches with a score and a decent handful of yards.
Tyler Conklin, TE: $3,600. The Tight End’s are one giant group of questionable choices and questionable injury reports. Conklin has been Joe Flacco’s safety net thus far, and I really like this play here if Wilson isn’t back under center. He’s averaging 6 catches on 8 targets for 46 yards over three games and did find the end zone back in Week 1. The Steelers are giving up 5 catches for 45 yards vs opposing Tight Ends so the opportunity is there.
Greg Dortch, WR: $5,000. Dortch will be in my lineup for a second time if he can work through the back injury he is currently dealing with. He should be the number 2 guy behind Hollywood Brown if he can as the Cards WR room is decimated or suspended. If he can’t go you might not find out until after the Noon games go off so have a backup plan in place. Kyle Pitts could be play here if Dortch is still questionable before the early games kick.
Commanders, DST: $2,600. The Commanders have managed to at least pressure the QB up to this point even though they’ve given up a fair number of points. I think the front four is good enough to dominate against a below average Cowboys O-Line. I took Lamb above because he’s going to get his either way, but It’s still a backup QB playing in Dallas. Rivera has to have something up his sleeve this week.
