I released my Week 2 Best Bets yesterday but have added 2 more plays since. I wouldn’t be surprised if I add a play or two more closer to Saturday, so be sure to join my Telegram group to receive a text when I release any and all plays!
2021 CFB: 106-88-1, +27.35u
2022 CFB: 5-6, -0.82u
*CFB(1u): Wisconsin 1H -9.5 vs Washington State–Sat 9/10; 2:30 PM CT
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State -11 vs Arizona State–Sat 9/10; 6:30 PM CT
Mike Gundy has had every style of offense under the sun during his time at Oklahoma State. While many link him to more of an aggressive, pass-first style of attack(think of 2011 Brandon Weedon and/or 2017 Mason Rudolph), he opted for a run-heavy attack last year due to how elite his defense was. If Game 1 was any indication, Gundy is back to his more aggressive ways with a 4th year starting QB in Spencer Sanders. I know Sanders has had his ups-and-downs in Stillwater, but I believe he is poised for a breakout year. In the opener, he threw the ball 41 times for 406 yards, 4 TD’s, and 0 picks. Sanders is also a massive threat as a runner, and he ran for 57 yards and 2 scores in the Opener. This Arizona State defense is vulnerable given that they lack much of a pass rush and can be had in their depleted secondary. I expect Oklahoma State to win up front and give Sanders time to do his thing. We’ve seen plenty of QB’s like Sanders who played mediocre for most of their career and then finally put it together in their senior year; Kenny Pickett from just last year fit that same bill.
Arizona State is, quite frankly, a dead beat program. This is a team that lost 17 players to the portal this offseason and had 6 coaches resign after the NCAA announced it would crack down on the program for recruiting violations. Herm Edwards added Florida’s Emory Jones to run the offense; in and of itself, I don’t think that’s a bad move. However, much like last year, Jones has little to work with at the WR position. Jones is another dual-threat guy, but it’s hard to see him fixing his turnover issues with his stable of WR’s and a spotty OL. Arizona State does have a pretty good run game, but I think that plays into Oklahoma State’s strength which is undoubtedly the Front 7. I was encouraged at how they stopped the run vs CMU after losing a lot at that position off last year’s team. A lot was made of Oklahoma State allowing 44 points in Week 1, but half of those points came in the 4Q with Oklahoma State playing 2nd-3rd team DB’s. Oklahoma State is going to be able to hold up against the run, get pressure on Jones and force him into mistakes.
My read on Arizona State coming into the year is that they wouldn’t step up in competition particularly well. With the hits they took this offseason, I have a hard time seeing them hang with superior teams for 4 quarters. Ultimately, Mike Gundy’s shift back to an aggressive offense and Oklahoma State’s edge in the trenches will get me on them officially.
The NFL is back! I can’t believe it is that time of the year already and boy am I amped. The action tonight should be exhilarating as we have two league heavy weights squaring off and dare I say a possible Super Bowl Preview? A lot of football to occur before we get too ahead of ourselves. Time to buckle up and get dialed in as we have 6 months of action to look forward to.
Remember it is not too late to sign up for my NFL Premium Pick Package for the entire year! Link at bottom of page!
Bills -2.5 -110 2 Units
Always looking for angles and I locked this in 2 weeks ago when I saw Aaron Donald go double handed Rambo with two helmets at Bengals players. Immediately jumped on the Bills @ -2.5 thinking a suspension was coming and the line would eventually move above 3. But mistakenly forgot there is no rhyme or reason with the NFL and how they handle their disciplinary procedures. The line since then moved back to 2 so hopefully some of you got it when it was there (I should have just taken it immediately when it came out at 1-1.5, but here we are), now it is back at -2.5 and all is well in the world not being screwed (yet) with CLV. We are still under a key number of 3, but let’s dive into why the Bills are poised to win on the road opening night against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
First off we all know the LA fanbase is not real. In fact the entire city of LA is fake. SoFi Stadium imported $24,000 in Labatte Blue in preparation for the Bills Mafia arrival. There is no home field advantage for the Rams here with this road crowd tuned up. Bills are coming into this season with chip on their shoulder feeling they got robbed by a coin flip to end their Super Bowl campaign in 2022. Whether you disagree or not that a coin flip determined the outcome of a playoff game in 2022 (as many debated), we can’t debate the fact that the Bills showed they were poised to travel into rowdy KC playoff atmosphere in January and compete with the leagues best. Traveling into SoFi in September is going to put this team at a disadvantage? I don’t think so.
It’s no secret this has potential to be a heavy weight boxing match, exchanging blow after blow back and forth. There is so much talent on both sides of the field. Where I find an edge is the dynamic athletic ability of Josh Allen vs Matthew Stafford. Josh Allen has the ability to turn any play at any time into positive production. He can do it all from breaking tackles, throwing on the run outside the pocket, massive arm strength, and dialed in accuracy… he is it. Stafford at 34 is still slinging the ball as we saw it last year. However, the talks of the elbow injury that is going to be with him all season is a cause for concern. It is week 1 so it should not factor too much in his performance. Both great QBs in their own right, but what sets them apart? The mental hunger for themselves and their organization. Stafford and the Rams are on cloud nine, they did it… achieved greatness and McVay and Stafford shut up the haters. Josh Allen and the Bills want that and need it. It starts tonight.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @WAGERTALK comes on to break down a massive weekend! First, Kiev talks about all of the smelly home dogs in the NFL this week! Should be a crazy week 1 for survivor! Next, Marco comes on and the guys get into the ins and outs of betting week 1 NFL football. Then, the guys get into the full slate of games with some leans and some FREE PLAYS that hopefully will cash you some tickets. After that, Kiev gets into some college football game and FREE PLAYS for week 2. Next, Kiev talks some UFC 279 with a few creative plays that can cash big. Finally, we get into College and NFL sharp money! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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NFL Thursday night Triple System TOP Play Headlines along with a 26-1 MLB TOP Play. WNBA Comp Play below
The WNBA Comp play is on Connecticut at 8:00 eastern. The Sun are off a blowout win and we like like them taking points here as WNBA Playoff road dogs off a home win scoring 90 or more are 8-0 Ats vs an opponent off a Road loss that scored 80 or more. The Sun have covered 8 straight on Thursdays, 8 of 9 on the road nd 9 of 11 off a win. Chicago has failed to cover 5 of 7 vs winning teams and the last 5 with 1 day of rest. Look for a tight game here. Take the points with Connecticut. On Thursday we our Triple Perfect Opening Night 5* NFL Power Play headlining along with a 26-1 MLB Diamond Cutter as well as Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we Continue to cash. For the WNBA Comp Play. Take the Points with the Sun. Rob V- GC Sports
More wins in the US Open, ya love to see it, and now we have NFL football tonight! I’m such a dork but I don’t know if there’s anything that amps me up more than the start of pro football. Officially I lean over in tonight’s game too, but for now we’ll stick with Rams -2.5. Will send out some more CFB later today, as well.
Let’s riiiiidddee!
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (12-6, +4.78 units):
Garcia/Jabeur over 21.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Jabeur to win (+125), to win 1.25 units
Jabeur made it to the Wimbledon finals and she hasn’t lost a beat in the U.S. Open. She struggles against big power hitters like Rybakina, and she might struggle if she sees Sabalenka in the Finals, but odds are Jabeur can handle her own tonight. Garcia has yet to lose a set and she’s very comfortable on the hard court, but she’s also faced ideal competition for her style and she’s never beat Ons before. Value on Jabeur at a price we rarely get her.
Iga Swiatek -3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Sabalenka has been a beast thus far but I think she’s a bad match for Swiatek. Watching Iga last night was like watching Federer in his prime; just always getting the ball back, somehow, in boundary, even in the most awkward positions and with POWER. Iga seems to be in the zone right now and Sabalenka relies on her power; she’s not as savvy as others who can give Swiatek trouble. I like Iga by margin here.
When it comes to being a successful long-term sports bettor, bankroll management can be just as important as picking winners. One of the major differences between successful, professional sports bettors and amateurs is how they manage their money. With that in mind, we want to educate you with some critical points about bankroll management.
First, you will need to set up a budget for your bankroll and to only use discretionary money in your savings or investments, meaning if it all goes bye-bye, then it will not affect your family, credit, happiness and lifestyle.
Flat betting would be the recommendation for beginners or conservative bettors. Flat betting means betting the same amount on every game and only risking 1% to 5% of your bankroll per play, regardless of your confidence level. A good medium is 3% per play. So, if you’re starting off with $1,000, then your flat 3% play would be $30.
As you become more experienced and trust your research, you can then use a unit scale to place more units on events that your more confident in. Most handicappers have a unit scale of either 1-5 or 1-10. This is called your betting unit size. The higher the unit size, the higher your confidence in a game. Like I mentioned earlier, you never want to place more than 5% of your budget on one event. So, for example, if your initial deposit is $1000 then $50 would be your maximum bet. Meaning if your scale is up to 10 units and your top play is $50, you would then divide $50 by 10 to come up with your other unit sizes. If your unit scale is up to 5 then you would divide the $50 by 5. Being consistent and disciplined with your unit size will help you ride out the inevitable ups and downs that come with sports betting. When you encounter a losing streak, it will save you from going broke. But when you’re winning, it will provide a positive Return on Investment (ROI). You know that there are times where luck won’t go your way or something unforeseen happens. The best you can do is handicap the games and put yourself in position to succeed as much as possible so that you can gain an edge when you feel you have one.
The last important aspect of bankroll management is to keep track of your bets. You want to have a running history of your action that’s easy to dissect. Sure, it sounds like a lot of work, but this is what the professionals do. Whether it’s signing up with a third-party site or updating your own spreadsheet you can see all of your bets across all of your sports, that becomes very useful. You might discover that you’re winning money betting on football but are losing money betting on basketball, that you’re winning your big bets but wasting a lot of money on small bets that you throw around, your better at against the spreads plays vs over/under plays, or full game compared to half game plays. You get the idea. All of this data is useful for not only protecting your bankroll, but building success and a solid sports betting strategy over the long run.
We bring in a record of 5-6, -0.82u into Week 2. Last year, I hit at a 55% clip in CFB and netted +27.35u.
I’m shooting to have the rest of my card out tomorrow, but there are a few spots I might wait to play closer to Saturday. To be sure, join my Telegram to receive a text when I release/add any plays.
*CFB(1.5u): Baylor/BYU UNDER 53.5–Sat 9/10; 9:15 PM CT
Some of you may have PTSD from BYU burning us on the Under from this past week. BYU was able to jump out to a 28-0 lead in the first 10 minutes of the game off of a slew of flukes(Pick 6, jet sweep for a 75 yard TD). South Florida was clearly overmatched, something that I don’t think holds true in this matchup. Both pace(or lack thereof) and good defensive matchups will be on our side.
I am high on this BYU passing game, as those of you who tailed the OVER 8 wins preseason bet know. However, this is an extremely tough matchup for a multitude of reasons. Baylor had a Top 10 defense in the country a year ago and returned their entire two-deep on the Front 4 for this season. While BYU’s OL figures to be a strength, this is going to be a heavy-weight level matchup in the trenches. Cal RB transfer Chris Brooks had a good BYU debut against South Florida, but I still think he’s a downgrade from what BYU had a year ago in RB Ty Allgeir. Baylor has a stick in MLB Dillon Doyle, and in general, it’s going to be extremely tough to establish any sort of run game on this Baylor front 7. While Baylor’s secondary took a hit over the offseason, they still return their top cover corner. BYU’s WR’s are not at full strength; Gunner Romney did not play in the Opener and is questionable for Saturday, as is fellow starter Puka Nacua after he injured his foot in Saturday’s win. When you consider that BYU ranked 100th in pace last year, I think there are enough road blocks in the way that prevent an explosive night for the Cougars offense.
Baylor QB Blake Shapen won the starting job this spring, but this is his first career road start. Shapen has looked very efficient early in his career, but he threw for less than 7 Y/A last season. One of the big question marks around this Baylor offense is at the WR position; when you factor in BYU’s reliability in their secondary, I have a hard time seeing Baylor create many explosive plays through the air. The Bears also lost their best player from last year’s team in RB Abram Smith(over 6 YPC in ‘21); nobody seems to have stepped up at that position, and BYU’s biggest strength defensively is stopping the run. BYU does struggle to pressure the QB, but they can absolutely hold up on the interior DL. Baylor ranked 91st in pace a year ago and have to replace too many pieces in the skill positions for me to think they’ll make a splash in this spot.
*CFB(1u): Iowa -3.5 vs Iowa State–Sat 9/10; 3 PM CT
*CFB(1u): Iowa State/Iowa UNDER 40.5–Sat 9/10; 3 PM CT
I’d like to personally thank everybody who dragged Iowa through the mud on social media after Iowa’s ugly 7-3 win this past Saturday. That has totally flipped the perception of this game and is partly to thank for this short line.
Kirk Ferentz has always had a bland and boring offense, but there’s a reason he’s the longest-tenured HC in college football; his system simply works. Iowa wins games with elite defense and special teams, and I think they’re as equipped to win that way now as they’ve ever been. Iowa had a top 5 defense in America a year ago, and I think they could be even better this year. Specifically, the Hawkeyes might have the best run defense in the country. Iowa State loses RB Breece Hall off of last year’s team, and if Hall couldn’t figure out this front 7, I have little-to-no faith Jihlel Brock(career 4.7 YPC) is up to the challenge. This is also the first big start of ISU QB Hunter Dekkers’ career. I don’t think he’s much of a downgrade from Brock Purdy, but this is still a tough spot for an inexperienced QB nonetheless. The Cyclones have a veteran-laden OL, but sometimes experience doesn’t directly correlate to production. Iowa managed to record 4 sacks in last week’s win, and I think they’ll be able to win up front in this matchup. That’s going to make life tough on a really young QB; I have a hard time seeing ISU being able to create any sort of explosive plays down the field.
Iowa is virtually no threat in the vertical passing game, and that could be even more true in this one. While I do expect Iowa to be able to win up front in the run game, their pass blocking can be suspect; this sets up poorly facing a really good Iowa State pass rushing unit. I think Ferentz will be content pounding the ground game considering Iowa State’s youth across their interior DL as well as some of their LB losses off of last year’s team. Iowa’s run game improved throughout the course of last season, and they will likely welcome back their RB1 Gavin Williams after he missed the season opener. Over time, I think Iowa State’s front 7 wears down and the Hawkeyes are able to start pulling off some big runs.
If the low total wasn’t a hint, this is going to be an extremely low-scoring game. Personally, I think anything over 38 is probably worth a look towards the Under. Each of these teams ranked in the bottom 30 in pace last year, and neither team’s path to victory is going to include much explosivity offensively. Ultimately, Kirk Ferentz has had Matt Campbell’s number throughout the course of this rivalry. Campbell has youth at too many spots for me to think this is the year he breaks through. I see something to the tune of a 20-10 Iowa win and will make both Iowa -3.5 and the Under official 1u plays.
*CFB(1u): Georgia State +7.5 vs North Carolina–Sat 9/10; 11 AM CT
*CFB(0.5u): Georgia State ML(+230) vs North Carolina–Sat 9/10; 11 AM CT
It’s hard to be too negative when you score 63 points in a win, but this North Carolina team has some CLEAR holes. The Tar Heels allowed 61 points to App State last week(40 in the 4th Quarter), showed little to-no discipline when trying to close out that game, and now will have to play their 2nd straight road game(the UNC athletic director should be fired for making this schedule).
Georgia State is not as well-known as Appalachian State, but they are an incredibly feisty team. They were able to record 3 sacks against Spencer Rattler last week and held up well against the pass. However, their strength is in that LB corps playing against the run, as South Carolina RB’s were held to just 91 yards on 28 carries last week. North Carolina had one of the worst OL’s in America a year ago; even if they improved marginally, they still allowed 3 sacks in that App State game. The Tar Heels have still yet to sort out their RB rotation, and this will undeniably be their toughest test to date. Tip your cap to Drake Maye for playing as well as he has through his first two starts, but he’s going to have to carry the load more than he’s proven to be able to for this Tar Heel offense to produce.
Georgia State QB Darren Grainger played horribly in that South Carolina game. Just average QB play would’ve made the Panthers a real threat in Columbia. Still, Grainger has shown enough throughout his career to where I think he will bounce back. A 4:1 TD/INT ratio in 2021 was impressive, and he’s also a massive threat as a runner(almost 1,000 yards in his career). Georgia State’s top 2 RB’s combined for 133 yards on just 18 carries against a pretty good South Carolina defense, so why wouldn’t I trust them against UNC? The Tar Heels allowed a staggering 6.7 YPC to App State’s top 2 RB’s a week ago, and I had concerns about this run defense coming into the season. UNC was very leaky against the pass a year ago, and not much was shown down the stretch of last week’s game to make me think that’s all that improved. I’m expecting a bounce back game from Grainger, something that’s not so wild when you consider the threat he is with his legs.
Slightly winning day Tuesday with + units in tennis, let’s keep attacking. Other picks also included in case you didn’t already put in aforementioned bets:
U.S. Open Picks 9.4 (10-6, +2.28 units):
Sinner/Alcarez over 39.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Swiatek/Pegula over 20.5 (-120), to win 1.5 units
Same angles, and you know why.
CFB Week 2 Picks (8-7-1, -0.35 units):
Arkansas State/Ohio State over 68 (-110), to win 1 unit
The total doesn’t match the spread (-44) on the Buckeyes, who are bound to explode, at home, after a pedestrian showing on offense against the Irish. Notre Dame has a very formidable defense though (and we knew that, despite being doubted constantly) — can’t say the same thing about Arkansas State. I think Ohio State annihilates their opponent Saturday; they might score 68 themselves.
Tennessee/Pitt under 65.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is too inflated and I expect it to fall. The strength of both of these programs is their defense and although both had higher scoring outputs in Week 1, their opponent will present different problems in this matchup. Regression to the norm and a potentially sloppy day in Pittsburgh add on to our liking the under here.
San Jose State/Auburn under 50 (-110), to win 1 unit
Auburn may have the best defense in the SEC this year – please hold, too early to call – but there’s a shot. San Jose State struggled against Portland State in Week 1… When team total props come out we’ll probably bet on SJS under, but for now we’ll take the full game total under. SJS may not score a point.
UFC 279 Picks (12-12, +11.88 units):
Chimaev in Round 2 (+330), to win 1.65 units
Chimaev in Round 3 (+700), to win 3.5 units
Chimaev might take it easy at first — Nate Diaz is still dangerous and he’s an absolute dawg, even if he’s not in his prime anymore. But Chimaev is very likely to end this early. Dude has that weird, psycho-killer mentality, like he’s literally not normal, and Dana White and others aren’t just hyping him up when they claim he might be one of the best the UFC has ever seen when it’s all said and done. Looking for value – we like this approach.
Li/Ferguson over 2.5 rounds (-105), to win 1 unit
Ferguson is one of the most durable UFC fighters of all time and he’ll be even more on guard after he got knocked out in his last brawl. Li is talented and should win by points, but I still believe Ferguson has one more win in ’em. I like the value of this wager better.
Johnny Walker wins (+175), to win 1.75 units
Johnny Walker wins within distance (+335), to win 1.675 units
Johnny Walker losing to Jamahal Hill is not something to be ashamed of. Hill is primed to contend for a Light Heavyweight championship and he’s tearing through the division. Ion Cutelaba is not in the same class as Hill and Johnny Walker must be primed and ready for a better performance. Walker is a freak, explosive athlete who can be a bit out of control at times, but no more than Cutelaba. Ion is infamous for his antics, in the octagon and out, and he’ll be out-sized and significantly out-reached in this fight. Walker takes the win and I think there’s a decent chance he does it before the final bell. I’m unimpressed by Ion.
NFL Week 1 Official Picks:
ATS Plays
Bills -2.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Stafford’s elbow issues + the hype of Super Bowl rings + Aaron Donald might’ve just got suspended due to today’s incident in joint practice with the Bengals (thank you for that note, @BohBohBets) and for me, this sets up for a Bills all-out performance. Buffalo is still reeling and motivated after last year’s heartbreaking playoff loss. I think they win and cover and put the league on notice in the opening contest.
Ravens -7 (-110), to win 2 units
I think the Ravens will be on a MISSION this year, with a revamped, healthy defense and a big contract year for Lamar to show out, I don’t think NYJ has a shot.
Steelers +6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This was one of my favorite bets last year in Week 1 and it remains one of my favorites this year — playing on the Steelers! Pittsburgh is perpetually underrated and we think this line will drop once the country starts seeing more crisp QB play from Kenny Pickett. I also think Mitch Tribusky will look better than advertised out the gate, creating a situation that’s tough to predict for their opponent in Week 1. The Steelers have the best defensive line in football in my opinion, because of their talent AND depth, and it’s not unlikely that Joey Burrow and the over-confident Bengals will come out fat and sassy assuming they’ll get a W against their division rival. Even at home, that’s a mistake against Pittsburgh. Well-coached, a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and a better QB room than people think – we’ll take the Steelers to cover on the first Sunday. Would NOT be shocked if they won straight up.
Texans +8.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I don’t know why I didn’t give this shit out a while ago, makes me mad and proves how insanely busy things have been because I’ve liked it for months. Now I like it even more. Dameon Pierce is looking like a real beast, which only adds to this narrative I like. Davis Mills has a defiant personality and he’s better than people think. It’s at Houston. Indy has basically no wide receivers, and it’s a huge line for a Week 1 divisional game. Take the Texans and don’t look back.
Patriots ML (+130), to win 2 units
One of the league’s best passing defenses last year takes on a Miami offense that’s getting a lot of hype in South Florida. Belichik is 0-3 against Tua, that has to irk him, and I don’t think the chemistry of Miami’s defense will be there. Savanty Mac Jones gets the win.
Eagles TT over 26.5 points (-115), to win 1.5 units
I’m not sure if the Eagles are for sure winning this game, although I definitely lean that way, but I’m pretty sure they’ll score a lot of points. The speed and potential of their offense is off the charts and I’ve seen NOTHING to believe that Philly won’t produce at a high level against the Detroit defense.
Jaguars +3 (-110), to win 1 unit
We’ll build upon this narrative and write up as the week goes on, but there’s something a little off in Washington, while there’s something sneakily exciting about the media coverage in Jacksonville. I think there’s a real chance the Jags win straight up, so we’ll take the 3 in case it moves down.
Chiefs -3 1H (-110), to win 2 units
Chiefs -4.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals were down by 10 points and back-door covered in this one, thus only 1 unit on the full line, but this is one of my favorite angles of Week 1 so I wanted to double the opportunity. The Chiefs TT is a look, too, but you can only get a good value over 30 and that’s a pretty high total, even for Kansas City. Either way, I think the Chiefs will blow out the Cardinals in Arizona, which is embarrassing for Kyler and Kliff.
Cowboy/Bucs over 52 (-110), to win 1 unit
Cowboys/Bucs over 50, to win 1.5 units
There’s evidence to believe that the value is gone here since Dallas’ offensive line is somewhat depleted and the Bucs’ offense might be clunky to start. Naa. I still like it. The Bucs and Tom Brady should be trusted and ready to prove their merit on a big stage in Dallas. The Cowboys want to show out, too — I think this is a 30-24 ballgame.
Teasers and Parlays
7 pt. Teaser:
Browns +8, Ravens win, Jags +10.5, Patriots +9.5, 1 unit to win 2 units
3-Leg Parlay: .
Ravens + 49ers + Chiefs, 3 units to win 5.47 units
