A 2-1, +0.95u Saturday brings me to 12-5, +7.95u on the week and 142-128-5, +8.77u on the season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to close the weekend out strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Cardinals ML(-125) @ Diamondbacks–3:10 PM CT

We have cashed with the Cardinals each of the past 5 days, and I’m +13.21u on my action in Cardinals’ games this season. I will continue to back them until given a reason not to. 

Cardinals SP Jose Quintana has enjoyed a nice bounce back season, and he’s in very good current form(5 ER across his last 5 starts). Quintana is limiting HR’s at the best rate since his 2014 season, allowing just 0.6 HR/9 this season. The Diamondbacks are a bit of a wild card offense, and they’ve actually handled left-handed pitching nicely in their home ballpark. However, it is a lineup that has seen its slugging diminish throughout the course of the summer and is not in particularly great current form.

The Cardinals offense is RED HOT(as we all know). They scored 16 runs last night, 13 runs on Thursday, and throughout the course of August, they are averaging nearly 6.5 runs/game. DBacks SP Merrill Kelly holds a sub-3.00 ERA on the year, but he is not an overpowering arm. We’d be on the Cardinals regardless, but I actually think this could be a more favorable matchup than the price would let on.

I felt comfortable playing this over the full game because the Cardinals hold a sizable advantage in the later innings. The Cards’ bullpen holds a 0.12 point advantage in the WHIP category, and I think that becomes an even wider gap when you compare the late-inning arms.

Let’s make it 6 straight!

*MLB(1u): Orioles ML(-105) vs Red Sox–6:10 PM CT

The Red Sox should not be a team you’re afraid to play against. This offense has been horrific throughout the course of the summer; here in the month of August, they hold a measly 89 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching. Orioles SP Dean Kremer’s fly-ball nature will get him in trouble on the road in his tougher matchups, but I don’t worry much about that against the middling lineup. 

Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta is truly a hit-or-miss arm. He had a stretch earlier this summer where he looked like an All-Star, but he’s far too inconsistent to trust in a big spot like this. His 1.29 WHIP is pretty reflective of that. This is also a much tougher matchup than people will assume. Since June 1st, the Orioles hold a 109 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching at home; since August 1st, that jumps all the way up to 136. The Orioles have been in a groove for quite awhile now.

A big part of this play is the bullpen discrepancy. While the Orioles did trade away Jorge Lopez at the Deadline, they still have a far better bullpen than Boston; they bring a 0.14 point advantage in the WHIP category into tonight’s game.

These are two teams going in opposite directions. I’d rather be on the young team that’s playing with their hair of fire in a “nothing to lose” spot.

We kept things rolling with a 2-1, +1u Friday. That brings me to 10-4, +7.05u on the week and 140-127-5, +7.82u on the season. I’m sticking with 3 plays for today looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Phillies GM1 F5 -0.5(-115) vs Mets–12:05 PM CT

Phillies SP Zack Wheeler got hit around by the Mets in Queens last weekend, but he now returns home for a great bounce back opportunity. At home this year, Wheeler holds a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP; considering he held a 0.87 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park last year, this is absolutely a role I can trust him in. While the Mets offense has been solid in this role, they have proven this week that they still have a tough time stepping up in competition on the road.

Mets SP Trevor Williams is making a spot start today and doesn’t figure into this Mets rotation on a consistent basis. While his overall numbers are solid, he has struggled on the road(4.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9). This Phillies offense is very inconsistent(to put it mildly), but they have actually been quite good in this role throughout the summer. Since June 1st, the Phils hold a 123 wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark.

*MLB(1u): Rays -1.5(+110) vs Royals–3:10 PM CT

Rays SP Drew Rasmussen flirted with a perfect game in his last start, but that has little to do with why I’m backing him. In addition to holding sub-3.00 ERA on the year, Rasmussen has been absolutely lights out at the Trop; he carries a 1.87 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home this year. Why would I be afraid to play against a Royals lineup that has plated just 4 runs across their last 4 games? After all, they hold just an 86 wRC+ in this role since June 1st.

Royals SP Kris Bubic has improved throughout the year, but given how poor he started, that’s not saying much. Bubic(5.11 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) is allowing well over 1 hit per inning and has yielded nearly 2 HR/9 on the road over the past two seasons. I’ve been very critical of this Rays offense this season, but this is the one role they’ve found consistent success in. Since June 1st, the Rays hold a 133 wRC+ vs lefties at the Trop. 

A big part of this handicap is the bullpen disparity. The Royals hold far-and-away the worst bullpen numbers in baseball, while the Rays have a borderline-top 5 bullpen in the game. When you combine this clear mismatch with the rest of this handicap, it’s indefensible that we’re being offered plus-money here.

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-125) @ Diamondbacks–7:10 PM CT

We’re officially on “auto-bet” mode with the Cardinals after cashing with them each of the past 4 days. This is a team we’ve seen well all year(+12.21u), so I see no reason to hop off now.

St. Louis is scoring over 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August and has been consistently good against left-handed pitching all summer. DBacks SP Madison Bumgarner is a shell of his former self, bringing a 4.37 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. His strikeouts are down, his hits are up, but most of all, Bumgarner is in especially bad current form entering tonight; he has allowed 19 ER over his last 4 starts.

As we saw last night, the DBacks bullpen is completely unreliable and should be faded into oblivion.

A 3-1, +2.1u Thursday brings my overall MLB record to 138-126-5, +6.82u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the weekend out with a bang. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 ML(-115) @ Yankees–6:05 PM CT

The Yankees are in as poor of current form as they’ve been all season(4-12 in August), and I actually think they have the disadvantage on paper early in this game.

Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has struggled in his home ballpark, but away from home, he’s been nothing short of dominant. On the road this year, Guasman holds a 1.83 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and is allowing just 0.3 HR/9. Gausman’s knack for limiting both long balls and walks is why his FIP sits at 2.08; I think he takes advantage of a struggling Yankees lineup tonight.

Yankees SP Jameson Taillon is a very attackable arm that struggles with allowing the deep ball(1.5 HR/9 last year, 1.34 HR/9 this year). While Taillon has actually fared reasonably well at Yankee Stadium, this is the hardest matchup he could’ve drawn. Since June 1st, the Blue Jays rank 1st in the league with a 132 wRC+ vs righties on the road. This lineup is stacked from 1-9 and plated 9 runs in the series opener last night. I like how they match up with Taillon given his consistent struggles with HR’s.

Do not play the Blue Jays over the full game.

*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+125) vs Angels–6:10 PM CT

I know each of these teams is playing for pride at this point, but this line should be much closer to a “pick”. This Angels lineup has been abysmal in this role all summer; since June 1st, the Angels rank 29th in baseball with a 66 wRC+ vs righties on the road. Is adding Mike Trout back really going to solve all of those issues(especially in his first game back)? We’ve seen countless examples this year of Ohtani and Trout both having marvelous nights at the plate only for the Angels to still lose in blowout fashion. Tigers SP Matt Manning is still early in his career, but the former 1st rounder has found great success (albeit a small sample) at Comerica Park this season. I think he’s more than capable of holding this Halos order in check.

Angels SP Patrick Sandoval is a guy I’ve faded routinely this season; while his 3.42 ERA might look appealing, his 1.49 WHIP is downright disgusting. In addition to allowing right at 1 hit per inning, Sandoval continues to struggle with his control(4.8 BB/9 on the road this year). Facing a lefty at home is the only the role I could ever trust the Tigers’ offense in, but that’s exactly what we’re getting tonight. Since June 1st, the Tigers hold a 117 wRC+ in this role. 

These bullpens are both fresh after an off-day and have similar numbers on the year, but I still given the slight edge to the Tigers ‘pen. 

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-140) @ Diamondbacks–8:40 PM CT

When they’re hot, they’re hot. We backed (and cashed) with the Cardinals in each of their 3 games vs the Rockies this week, including in yesterday’s 13-0 win. I will continue to back this team until given a reason not to.

Specifically, I’ve loved the way this offense has fared against left-handed pitching this summer. Since June 1st, the Cardinals rank 3rd in baseball with a 128 wRC+ vs lefties. Tonight, they’ll face DBacks SP Tommy Henry, an arm making just his 4th big league start. Judging off his minor league numbers(1.34 WHIP in AAA this year), Henry is with the big club out of necessity, not because he deserves to be. 

Arizona’s bullpen ranks bottom 10 in the league in virtually every category, making them a stricht “play against” unit for me.