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Podcast 802 – 26 – 26 – With Tony George – NCAA Tournament Best Bets Pt 2 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Sports Betting - Tony George
Sports Betting - Tony George - The OddsBreakers

We have a MASSIVE March Madness show part two for you today! Tony George @TGeorgecapper is back to break down more games.  First, Kiev gives his thoughts on every lined game for Friday.  Next, Tony comes on and the guys talk about how messed up X is from hacking.  Then, Tony and Kiev get into the committee and what could have been better.  After that, the boys get into their best bets for the NCAA tournament.  Next, Tony and Kiev talk final four and long shots as well as a beer bet banger that could spend well for the spring and summer.   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Get in our $500 free bracket challenge give away! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2ge2demjygq2di===/join?invited-by=ivxhi4tzhizdcnzzge2tcobu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF26_cpy_invite_new_mt_bpm&pool-join-key=m5cpc41zwmi01jislq3ge2n90w8676xk&senderRole=mzarnpa8gletrg!  

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

NCAA Tournament Thirsty Thursday Best Bets – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

North Dakota State vs Michigan State -16.5 O/U 143.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 3 Michigan State (25–7) vs. No. 14 North Dakota State (27–7)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 4:05 PM ET

  • Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

  • TV: TNT

Both teams enter with contrasting trajectories:

  • Michigan State has dropped its last two games but remains a perennial March threat under Tom Izzo.

  • North Dakota State rides a four‑game winning streak and swept the Summit League regular season and tournament titles.

 

🔍 Key Storylines

Michigan State: Experience + Playmaking

  • Tom Izzo’s 28th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

  • MSU ranks 5th nationally in assists per game (18.5), driven by Jeremy Fears Jr.

  • Strong frontcourt contributions from Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr, and Carson Cooper.

North Dakota State: Balance + Rebounding

  • NDSU led the Summit League in scoring margin and is elite on the offensive glass.

  • Four players average double figures, led by Damari Wheeler‑Thomas (14.4 PPG).

  • Shoots 36.5% from three, second in the Summit League.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Michigan State North Dakota State
Record 25–7 27–7
Assists per game 18.5 16.0
Field goal % 47.1% 46.4%
3‑pt % allowed 43.8% —
Leading scorer Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.7) Damari Wheeler‑Thomas (14.4)
Last 10 games 6–4 8–2
 

 

 

🧠 Matchup Keys

⭐ Why Michigan State Could Win

  • Superior ball movement and guard play.

  • More size and depth in the frontcourt.

  • Izzo’s teams rarely get out‑toughed in March.

⭐ Why North Dakota State Could Hang Around

  • Excellent offensive rebounding (11.6 per game).

  • Balanced scoring makes them hard to scout.

  • Momentum from winning eight of their last nine.

Prediction:

  • This is a game with a large enough spread for me to get involved here.  Michigan State is a solid team, but way overrated in the market.   
  • Since January 29th, Sparty has been just a meddling team ranking 24th on Bart Torvik.  When they played good to great teams, they pretty much got blown out minus one close win against Purdue.
  • North Dakota State doesn’t do anything spectacular, but this team has only lost two games since December 29th, and I expect them to fight here to keep it within reason.  
  • Sparty has not been a great team away from home ranking 247th in road/home splits on Haslametrics.
  • The Bison keep it close.

North Dakota State +16.5 – 2 stars

Texas A&M vs Saint Mary’s -3 O/U 147.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 10 Texas A&M (21–11) vs. No. 7 Saint Mary’s (27–5)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 7:35 PM ET

  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

  • TV: truTV

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Saint Mary’s Gaels

  • Record: 27–5, 16–2 WCC

  • Identity: Slow pace, elite defense, disciplined half‑court offense.

  • Strengths:

    • No. 1 free‑throw shooting team in the nation (≈80.5%).

    • Top‑40 nationally in defensive efficiency, allowing <65 PPG.

    • Improved 38.6% three‑point shooting, their best in years.

  • Key Player: Paulius Murauskas (18.8 PPG, 48.9% FG).

Texas A&M Aggies

  • Record: 21–11, 11–7 SEC

  • Identity: Pressure defense, pace, and streaky perimeter shooting.

  • Strengths:

    • Second‑most bench points in the entire NCAA Tournament field (18.1 per game).

    • Aggressive perimeter defense and opportunistic transition scoring.

  • Concerns:

    • Undersized frontcourt vs. Saint Mary’s three seven‑footers.

    • Inconsistent shooting stretches (4–7 in last 11 games).

  • Key Players:

    • Ruben Dominguez (40.4% from three).

    • Marcus Hill (49.6% FG).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ How Saint Mary’s Wins

  • Control tempo and force A&M into half‑court sets.

  • Leverage size advantage inside.

  • Win the free‑throw battle late (their biggest edge).

⭐ How Texas A&M Wins

  • Speed the game up with pressure and early‑clock threes.

  • Win the turnover battle (Gaels are 7–2 when they win it).

  • Hot shooting from Dominguez, Griffen, and Hill.

 

📊 Recent Form Comparison

Category Texas A&M Saint Mary’s
Last 10 Games 4–6 8–2
PPG 78.3 77.3
Opponent PPG Allowed 83.6 64.7
FG% 42.0% 45.2%
 

 

Prediction:

  • Who doesn’t love the Aggies new coach in Bucky McMillan.   This cat plays a fun brand of basketball with a press defense, and three points reigning from the air.  The problem that I have with this is that Bucky doesn’t really have the horses to play a great game of basketball against defensive minded teams.
  • Saint Mary’s has played some solid basketball against a better team named Gonzaga who also likes to run the floor, except the Zags play much better defense than the Aggies.
  • From a matchup perspective, neither team has great offensive advantages, but Saint Mary’s will have a big rebounding advantage ranking 4th in rebounding percentage to 185th for the Aggies.   
  • Since February 1st, the Aggies rank 61st on Bart Torvik, while Saint Mary’s ranks 18th.  Take the Gael’s to win by margin.

Saint Mary’s -3 – 2 stars

Penn vs Illinois -24.5 O/U 150.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 3 Illinois (24–8) vs. No. 14 Penn (18–11)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 9:25 p.m. ET

  • Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC

  • TV:TNT

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Illinois Fighting Illini

  • Strengths:

    • One of the nation’s top offenses (125.5 offensive rating).

    • Extremely disciplined defensively — 3rd nationally in fewest fouls (13.4 per game).

    • Deep, versatile roster with multiple scoring threats (Wagler, Mirkovic, Stojakovic).

  • Concerns:

    • Recent late‑game struggles with multiple overtime losses.

Penn Quakers

  • Strengths:

    • Elite three‑point shooting — 38.6% (15th nationally).

    • Strong ATS (against the spread) team, covering eight straight entering the tournament.

    • Momentum from winning the Ivy League Tournament with back‑to‑back OT wins.

  • Concerns:

    • Injuries/illness:

      • Leading scorer Ethan Roberts (16.9 PPG) likely out with a concussion.

      • Star forward TJ Power (16.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG) battling illness.

    • Limited depth (only ~18 bench points per game).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ What Illinois Needs to Do

  • Push tempo and attack Penn’s thin rotation.

  • Use size advantage inside (Ivisic, Mirkovic).

  • Stay disciplined defensively and avoid giving up open threes.

⭐ What Penn Needs to Do

  • Hit threes at a high volume to compensate for missing scorers.

  • Slow the game down and avoid foul trouble.

  • Hope TJ Power is healthy enough to play major minutes.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Illinois Penn
Record 24–8 18–11
Offensive Rating 125.5 108.8
Defensive Rating 103.8 104.8
PPG 84.4 76.1
3‑pt % 34.7% 38.6%
Key Player Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG)

TJ Power (16.8 PPG)*

 

Prediction:

  • This should actually be a pretty fun game out in South Carolina where a school of smart kids will be facing Illinois.
  • The interesting thing about this matchup is that the old Iowa coach Fran McCaffery has once again made the tournament after his first year of being away from the flat lands of the mid-west.   
  • Fran knows Illinois coach Brad Underwood quite well, but when they used to face off, it was all fireworks with a lot of points.
  • I think that we see points in this game as well.  Penn plays basketball at a fast pace ranking 69th in average possession length.  They shoot the three ball quite well ranking 11th in three point percentage.
  • This year’s Illinois team only ranks 277th in pace, yet they are extremely efficient ranking 3rd in offensive rebounding and 39th in effective FG%.  The Illini tend to run with teams when needed.  I see them putting up almost 90 points.  I would not be shocked to see Penn at least in the mid-60s or more.  

Over 150.5 – 2 stars

Idaho vs Houston -23.5 O/U 136.5

🏀 Game Overview

  • Matchup: No. 2 Houston (28–6) vs. No. 15 Idaho (21–14)

  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 19, 10:10 p.m. ET

  • Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

  • TV: truTV

 

🔍 Team Profiles

Houston Cougars

  • Record: 28–6

  • Identity: Elite defense, physicality, depth.

  • Key Strengths:

    • Allows just ~63 PPG, one of the best defenses in the nation.

    • Top‑10 efficiency metrics and consistent tournament success under Kelvin Sampson.

    • Strong guard play: Kingston Flemings, Milos Uzan, Emanuel Sharp.

Idaho Vandals

  • Record: 21–14

  • Identity: Balanced scoring, heavy three‑point volume.

  • Key Strengths:

    • 10 made threes per game, among the best mid‑majors.

    • Multiple double‑digit scorers: Rasmussen, Brickner, Mitchell.

    • Entering the tournament on a strong late‑season run (Big Sky champions).

 

⚔️ Matchup Keys

⭐ How Houston Wins

  • Use physical defense to disrupt Idaho’s shooters.

  • Win the turnover battle (Houston is 27–2 when committing fewer turnovers).

  • Attack Idaho’s thinner frontcourt and wear them down with depth.

⭐ How Idaho Wins

  • Hit threes early and often — their only realistic path to keeping pace.

  • Slow the game down and avoid getting overwhelmed by Houston’s pressure.

  • Get big scoring nights from Rasmussen and Brickner.

 

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category Houston Idaho
Record 28–6 21–14
Points Allowed ~62.9 PPG ~72.6 PPG
Points Scored ~77.1 PPG ~78.7 PPG
3‑Pointers Made 6.9 per game allowed 10 per game made
Leading Scorer Kingston Flemings (16.4 PPG)

Jackson Rasmussen (13.8 PPG)

 

Prediction:

  • Let’s face it. Houston is just a big bully who beats on the lower teams and gets beat by the great teams.
  • The Problem with Idaho is that they really do not have the size inside to really compete with Houston’s bigs.  
  • Idaho’s best win was against 133 Kenpom ranked Montana State, and this team lost by over 30 to Sam Houston State earlier this year.  
  • Houston has beaten better teams by more than 20 points like UCF by 24, Colorado by 40, Kansas by 22, Cincinnati by 22 and Arizona State and West Virginia by over 30.   I see a blowout game here.
  • Take the bullies and lay the points.

Houston -23.5 –  2 stars

NCAA Tournament Free $500 bracket challenge AND HUGE Survivor

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

Get into our FREE 2026 NCAA tournament challenge to win $500 in prizes!  Brackets come out Sunday!  Click here to get in early!  

Click Here: https://tinyurl.com/ymjsn9rm

 

 

 

Ultimate NCAA TOURNAMENT survivor is back & brought to you by The OddsBreakers! Contest revivals are activated: If all entrants in a Survivor contest are eliminated in the same week, rather than ending the contest with no winner, the contest is revived. The last round of entrants to have been eliminated advance and continue playing. Weeks 7 & 8 are combined (Like most contests do) so that we can pick any 2 of the 4 games in the elite 8!

NCAA Tournament SURVIVOR!

Winner(s) Take All Up To

$411,250.00

JOIN HERE!

About this contest

Entry Fee – $20

Entrants that select only winners Straight Up will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, they will all be considered winners and will all split the prize.

Check the individual day tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each day. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.

Sport – Basketball

Contest Type – Survivor

Multi-Entry – Yes (25)

Entry Deadline – 3/19 @ 9:00 AM

Pick Deadline – Game start

Contest settings

Pick objective – Pick Winners

Picks per day – 1

Team use limit – Once

Double pick days – Day 7 + 8 (Round of 8)

Combine Days 7 and 8 – Enabled

Pick Scoring – Straight up

Winning the contest:

The winner shall be the last remaining entry. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same day, the contest will conclude and those eliminated entrants will be declared winners and split the prize in equal shares. Eliminations due to not having any remaining teams to select in a day are treated the same as making an incorrect pick. If multiple entrants survive through the final contest day, all surviving entrants will be declared winners and split the prize in equal shares.

Team use limit:

Depending on the limit set by the commissioner, entrants may select a team once at most throughout the contest.

Tiebreakers:

There are no tiebreakers. If multiple entrants are declared winners, they will split the prize in equal shares.

Picking Winners:

Select only winners to advance to the next day. Losses, ties, and missed picks result in elimination from the contest. Running out of teams to pick will also result in elimination from the contest.

Podcast 801 – 25 – 26 – With Matt Youmans – NCAA Tournament Best Bets Pt 1 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a MASSIVE March Madness show for you today! Matt Youmans @MattYoumans248 from @VSINLIVE is back to break down some huge NCAA games.  First, Kiev gives his thoughts on every lined game for Thursday.  Next, Matt comes on and the guys talk about Matt’s trip to Thailand.  Apparently, what happens in Thailand stays there even more than Vegas.  Then,, Matt and Kiev get into the committee and what could have been better.  After that, the boys get into their best bets for the NCAA tournament. Next, Matt and Kiev talk final four and long shots as well as a beer bet banger that could spend well for the weekend full of fun.   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Get in our $500 free bracket challenge give away! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2ge2demjygq2di===/join?invited-by=ivxhi4tzhizdcnzzge2tcobu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF26_cpy_invite_new_mt_bpm&pool-join-key=m5cpc41zwmi01jislq3ge2n90w8676xk&senderRole=mzarnpa8gletrg!  

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

College Basketball FREE 2026 March Madness NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge to win $500!

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Get into our FREE 2026 NCAA tournament challenge to win $500 in prizes!  Brackets come out Sunday!  Click here to get in early!  

Click Here: https://tinyurl.com/ymjsn9rm

 

Once again, we are giving away $500 in prizes to the top 4 finishers in this challenge. All you need to do is wright a 5 star review and take a screen shot and send it to INFO@TheOddsBreakers.com.  If you already have the review then you can just retweet the podcast and send that screen shot in as well. 1st place will be $275, 2nd place will be $125, 3rd place will be $75 and 4th will be $25. Get your brackets in by Thursday March 19th before the 1st game at 12AM Eastern, 9AM Pacific! Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament!

Podcast 800 – 24 – 26 – With Shawn Knoche – NCAA Tournament 1st look & Best Bets – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE March Madness show for you today! Shawn Knoche from The OddsBreakers for a first look into the NCAA tournament.  First, the guys talk about how well the committee did and which teams they would push out and which teams they wanted to see in.  Next, Shawn and Kiev get into contests!  Please click on the links below!  Then, the boys get into the quadrents and who might be some sleeper teams and some fade teams with some early Best Bets!  After that, Shawn and Kiev talk final four and long shots   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Get in our $500 free bracket challenge give away! https://picks.cbssports.com/college-basketball/ncaa-tournament/bracket/pools/kbxw63b2ge2demjygq2di===/join?invited-by=ivxhi4tzhizdcnzzge2tcobu&via-medium=copy&ttag=FF26_cpy_invite_new_mt_bpm&pool-join-key=m5cpc41zwmi01jislq3ge2n90w8676xk&senderRole=mzarnpa8gletrg!  

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

 

College Basketball Saturday Super Play – Purdue vs UCLA – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Purdue vs UCLA +7.5 O/U 145.5

The OddsBreakers •

Pick
Odds
HomeTeam
Moneyline
NCAAB • Houston Cougars @ Arizona Wildcats
-140 on FanDuel
CLOSED • 03/14/2026
Tally (Win %)
3-0-0 (100%)
Money Meter
$26.02
ROI
86.7%
Betslip #1773502761944-a0f4-537

🏀 Matchup Overview

  • Game: Purdue (25–8) vs. UCLA (23–10)
  • Event: Big Ten Tournament Semifinal
  • Location: Chicago
  • Tip‑off: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Line: Purdue ‑7.5

🔍 Key Storylines

⭐ Purdue’s Momentum

  • Purdue bounced back from a late‑season slump and has won convincingly in the tournament, including a 74–58 win over Nebraska.
  • Center Oscar Cluff has been a major factor, with analysts expecting him to attack UCLA inside again.

🚑 UCLA’s Injury Crisis

  • UCLA’s leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau suffered a right knee injury and may need “a literal miracle” to play.
  • Without him, UCLA loses its top scoring option and a key late‑game shot‑maker.

📊 Statistical Edges

  • UCLA offense: 78.1 points per game — strong, but Bilodeau’s absence looms large.
  • Purdue defense: Allows just 70.2 points per game.
  • Purdue shooting: 49.9% from the field, significantly higher than what UCLA typically allows (43.3%).

🧠 What Will Decide the Game?

Purdue Advantages

  • Interior scoring: Cluff’s matchup is favorable.
  • Rebounding: Purdue ranks fourth in the Big Ten in offensive boards.
  • Depth & health: Purdue enters at full strength.

UCLA Needs

  • Donovan Dent’s playmaking (7.8 assists per game) must elevate the offense.
  • Perimeter shooting to compensate for Bilodeau’s absence.
  • Defensive disruption to slow Purdue’s efficient scoring.

📈 Prediction Snapshot

Most models and analysts lean Purdue due to:

  • Superior health
  • Stronger interior presence
  • Higher offensive efficiency
  • UCLA’s compromised scoring options

UCLA can still make it interesting if they push tempo and hit threes, but the matchup tilts toward Purdue.

Prediction:

  • I do not completely understand this line, and I think it’s more about what Purdue has done in the distant past more than this season.
  • The Boilers have already lost by two points at UCLA this year.  Their three point shots were not going down, but what makes us think that they will today?   Purdue has a bad defense ranking 233rd in opponent effective FG% and 230th in forcing turnovers.
  • Another issue that I have with Purdue is that they are not that big inside team that we remember.   They do not get to the free throw line only ranking 339th in free throw attempts to field goal attempts.
  • The biggest reason for this big line is the injury to UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau.  He sprained his knee, (we think) and will be questionable this game.  Keep in mind that the Bruins beat Sparty without him most of the game.   The Bruins have depth at the center position.
  • The Bruins are not the exact perfect team either, but these guys at least can play some defense ranking 121st in opponent effective FG%.   UCLA can hit the three ball ranking a huge 14th in the nation in three point percentage.   That number is big against a team like Purdue who can’t defend it.  The Bruins have also had bad free throw luck with opponents hitting over 75% of them.  That isn’t normal and it may have costed them a few tight games.   I like a close game here and the Bruins are live.

UCLA +7.5 – 2 stars 

Podcast 799 – 23 – 26 – With Kyle Hunter – College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bets – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks from Hunter Sports Picks is back to break down some hoops!  First, the guys get into some sleepers that could make some noise in the big dance.  Next, Kyle and Kiev talk about the one seeds and ask if anyone can beat them.  Then, we get into some trends that have some serious betting implications for the next few days.  After that, Kyle and Kiev get into some Best Bets for the big Friday slate as well as some random games to discuss.   Finally, we talk some beer bet bangers that could hit for a few cases!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

College Basketball Thirsty Thursday Best Bet – Louisville vs Miami – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Louisville vs Miami PK O/U 152.5

🏀 Matchup Overview

  • Game: Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes
  • Date/Time: Thursday, March 12, 2026, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
  • Line: Louisville ‑1.5; Total: ~154–156 depending on book
  • Context: ACC Tournament quarterfinal; a rematch just five days after Louisville’s 92–89 win in Coral Gables.

🔥 Recent Form & Storylines

Louisville Cardinals

  • Record: 23–9 (11–7 ACC)
  • Recent Game: Beat SMU 62–58 on Wednesday, meaning they enter this matchup on short rest.
  • Previous Meeting: Beat Miami 92–89 on March 7 behind 24 points from Ryan Conwell and a clutch Adrian Wooley 3‑pointer.
  • Strengths:
    • Lead the ACC with 17.1 assists per game, showing strong ball movement.
    • Multiple scoring threats (Conwell, Wooley, McKneely).

Miami Hurricanes

  • Record: 24–7 (13–5 ACC)
  • Tournament Position: Enter with a double‑bye, meaning they are rested and prepared.
  • Strengths:
    • ACC‑best 12.1 fast‑break points per game.
    • Elite efficiency: 50.6% shooting, significantly higher than what Louisville typically allows (42.2%).
  • Motivation: Miami’s staff emphasized the importance of avoiding another slow start after the first 10 minutes cost them the regular‑season finale.

📊 Key Matchup Factors

1. Rest vs. Rhythm

  • Miami is fresh; Louisville is playing its second game in two days.
  • Historically, rest advantages matter in conference tournaments—especially against fast‑paced teams like Miami.

2. Offensive Firepower

  • Both teams score efficiently; analysts expect “offensive fireworks” with totals projected in the mid‑150s.

3. Guard Play

  • Louisville’s trio (Wooley, McKneely, Conwell) has been excellent.
  • Miami counters with explosive guards like Tre Donaldson and Tru Washington, who were aggressive in the previous matchup.

4. Paint Battle

  • Miami’s Ernest Udeh Jr. provides rim pressure and rebounding, especially important against a Louisville team that can go cold for stretches.

📊 Advanced Stats Breakdown

(All cited stats come from the March 7 Louisville–Miami game and season data where available.)

🔢 Four Factors Comparison

These are the most predictive efficiency stats in basketball. Source: Sports‑Reference box score.

Metric Louisville Miami What It Means
Pace 65.0 65.0 Both teams played at a moderate tempo — not slow, not fast.
eFG% .717 .636 Louisville shot extremely efficiently; Miami was also strong.
TOV% 8.7% 10.8% Both teams protected the ball well; Louisville elite here.
ORB% 22.7% 36.4% Miami dominated the offensive glass — a major advantage.
FT/FGA .264 .345 Miami generated more free throws per shot attempt.
Offensive Rating 141.6 137.0 Both offenses were elite; Louisville slightly better per possession.

🧠 What These Advanced Stats Tell Us

1. Louisville’s Shooting Was Unsustainably Hot

  • A .717 eFG% is elite even for a single game.
  • Miami’s defense allowed too many clean looks, especially from Conwell and McKneely.

2. Miami’s Offensive Rebounding Is a Real Problem for Louisville

  • Miami grabbed 36.4% of their own misses — a top‑tier number.
  • Ernest Udeh Jr. (9.4 RPG season average) is a major factor.

3. Turnovers Won’t Decide This Matchup

  • Both teams are well below the national average in turnover rate.
  • Louisville’s 8.7% TOV% is elite and gives them extra possessions.

4. Free Throws Tilt Slightly Toward Miami

  • Miami’s .345 FT/FGA shows they attack the rim more consistently.
  • Louisville relies more on jump shooting.

Prediction:

  • Louisville just had went into Miami and beat them, so what are we doing here?
  • This is simple if you ask me.   Less than a week ago, Louisville went into Miami and shot lights out hitting 50% of their three point shots, and 69% from two.   This is a bit uncommon for them, and don’t forget that Miami was down double digits and made a huge comeback to almost win this game.
  • Louisville might be the second best team in the ACC when healthy, but not having point guard and second leading scorer Mikel Brown Jr matters.   They are also missing a depth piece down low in Kasean Prior.
  • since February 1st, Miami ranks 24th on Bart Torvik while Louisville ranks 18th.   The Cane’s will have some matchup advantages down low.   As long as the Cardinal doesn’t shoot lights out, I will take the more rested team here.

Miami PK -102 – 2 stars

The OddsBreakers •

Pick
Odds
HomeTeam
Moneyline
NCAAB • Louisville Cardinals @ Miami (FL) Hurricanes
100 on DraftKings
CLOSED • 03/12/2026
Tally (Win %)
1-0-0 (100%)
Money Meter
$10.00
ROI
100.0%
Betslip #1773325790927-a0f4-656

College Basketball Monday Free Play – Colonials On The Horizon

By
Shawn Knoche
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Welcome back to all our loyal TheOddsbreakers.com readers. We are winding down the college basketball season as tournament time is right around the corner.

We’re still holding our own with our high volume of plays in college basketball. All our plays are 3 units and under and typically 1-2 Units. Even after an awful start we’ve battled back and are now 255-229-1 on the season +17.49 Units. I should wait to play more until I get more data as we are 234-181-1 +65.63 Units since December 15th.

Today we look to Indianapolis, Indiana and the Horizon League tournament Semi-finals where Detroit Mercy will take on Robert Morris at the Corteva Coliseum at 8:30 CT. The Line is currently at Robert Morris -5 with a total landing at 147.5.

Robert Morris comes in 22-10 overall and finished second in the Horizon going 13-7 in conference play. They’ve gone 11-2 down the stretch and have been winning games by imposing their defensive might against weaker offenses in the Horizon. Detroit finished tied for third in conference finishing one game back of Robert Morris at 12-8, and are at 16-14 overall. They have also played well down the stretch winning eight of their last ten.

First off, the Horizon was very balanced this year with the second through seventh seeds finishing within three games of each other. There are certain trends that pop-up in repeat match-ups, and I see some in this game as well.

They say it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, and while that may be true there’s a reason Robert Morris holds an advantage in this one. His name is Ryan Prather and he is in the Top 10 in the country in individual offensive ratings for his percentage of possessions used. Last time out against Detroit he put up 29. He is averaging 15.8 ppg and 35.7% from deep on the season.

He’s just part of what Robert Morris does well on offense which is shoot the three ball. They are 13th in the country hitting 38.5% from distance. When they do miss, they crash the boards hard as they are also 13th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. They snagged 15 offensive rebounds in both match-ups against Detroit this season and I expect more of the same tonight. If they have a large weakness it is at the free-throw line which is the only thing scary as a backdoor cover could be open. Detroit also has shot the three-ball well and is tops in Horizon league conference play. They do however have a big home/road split from distance shooting 39.3% at home and only 32.1% away from Calihan Hall.

Detroit will look to win this game by pushing tempo, and Robert Morris has been beaten by up tempo teams in conference this year including a bad loss to IU Indy. Robert Morris is 7-3 however against the top tempo teams in the Horizon. On the flip side Detroit has struggled against the slower paced teams in conference only going 3-7 in those contests. Even pushing tempo Detroit doesn’t turn teams over on defense rankings 332nd in the country. Robert Morris hasn’t protected the ball well, but only turned it over only 19 times combined in the two games with Detroit earlier this season.

Robert Morris is going to win the possession battle and barring a three-point extravaganza from Detroit those extra possessions should be enough to cover this number on a neutral floor.

Robert Morris -5, 2 Units

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