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Fantasy Football Week 12

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Byes:  Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Commanders.

Key Injuries:

  • QB Michael Penix Jr with a bad knee and will miss the rest of the season.
  • QB Dillon Gabriel with a concussion will probably miss a week.
  • RB Josh Jacobs with a knee injury.
  • RB Kimani Vidal with a thigh injury for LAC.
  • QB Aaron Rodgers hurt his non-throwing hand/wrist and may miss some time.
  • WR Jamar Chase could get suspended for spitting on Jalen Ramsey.
  • WR Drake London went out with a knee injury.
  • WR Calvin Ridley broke his fibula and is toast.
  • WR Chimere Dike had a concussion and may miss next week.

Waiver Wire:

  • QB Mason Rudolph for the Rogers injury is one.
  • QB Kirk Cousins in the man now it Atlanta.
  • RB Byshule Tuten Hurt himself.
  • RB Amar Johnson for the Vidal injury is speculative for the following week.
  • WR Andre Iosivas for the Jamar Chase suspension is good.
  • WR Darnell Mooney for the London injury.
  • WR Van Jefferson for the Titans woes is huge.
  • WR Mason Kinsey for the Titans if deep league.
  • WR Christian Watson from the Packers is solid.
  • RB Emmanuel Wilson for the Jacobs injury.
  • QB Shedeur Sanders for the Gabriel Injury is good.  He has a shot to win it out.
  • RB Sean Tucker from Tampa is a MUST ADD and will be at least an RB 2 after last week’s great performance.
  • WR Michael Wilson was the man in Arizona chasing the 49ers points.
  • RB Kenneth Gainwell was awesome against the Bungles.

Sleepers/Non-starters trending up for week 12

  • QB Mason Rudolph has a good matchup in Chicago.
  • WR Mack Hollins against the Bengals is solid.
  • RB Treveon Henderson against the Bengals is also great.
  • WR Jameson Williams against the Giants is gonna rock.
  • TE Isaiah Likely against the Jets is an unlikely solid start.
  • RB Alvin Kamara against the Falcons is sweet.
  • WR Chris Olave against the Falcons is good.
  • RB Aaron Jones in revenge mode at the Packers looks good to me.
  • WR Michael Wilson against the Jaguars could slap.
  • RB Kenneth Gainwell against the Bears is a start.
  • QB CJ Stroud/Davis Mills against the Bills should get some fantasy points.
  • WR DJ Moore against the Steelers is a hot shot.

Busts:

  • QB Daniel Jones against a pissed off Chiefs is suspect.
  • RB James Cook against the Texans is rough.
  • WR Michael Pittman also against the Chiefs.
  • WR Keon Coleman against the Texans is bad.
  • WR Khalil Shakier against the Texans.
  • QB Joe Flacco has worn out his welcome against the Patriots.
  • RB Breece Hall at the Ravens is a sit.
  • QB Jordan Love against the Vikings is a risk.
  • QB Dak Prescott against the Eagles is bad.

Nasty Sleeper:

  • WR Ricky Pearsall against the Panthers could hit hard this week.

Podcast 759 – 95 – 25 – NFL & College Football Recap & Play – Fantasy Football Week 12 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis.  Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week.  Who could let down?  Who could bet flat?  Who has long or short rest?  After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025

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Monday Night Football Video Prop – Cowboys vs Raiders – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
@theoddsbreakers

#freepicks #freeplays #sportsbetting #mondaynightfootball cowboys vs raiders best bet

♬ Monday Night Football (Trap Remix) – Trap Remix Guys

NFL Week 11 Sunday Fun-Day Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Bengals vs Steelers -5.5 O/U 49

🏈 Game Context

  • Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025, 1 p.m. ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
  • Broadcast: CBS

📊 Team Records & Stakes

  • Steelers: 5-4, currently first in the AFC North despite losing 3 of their last 4 games.
  • Bengals: 3-6, desperate for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. A victory would make them 3-0 in the division and just one game behind Pittsburgh.

🔥 Quarterback Matchup

  • Joe Flacco (Bengals): At 40, making his 200th career start. He led Cincinnati to a 33-31 win over Pittsburgh in Week 7.
  • Aaron Rodgers (Steelers): At 41, coming off his worst game of the season against the Chargers. He’s looking to bounce back and stabilize Pittsburgh’s offense.

📈 Key Stats

  • Bengals Offense: Ranked 22nd overall, 13th in passing, but dead last in rushing.
  • Bengals Defense: Ranked 32nd across the board — worst in the league.
  • Steelers Offense: Ranked 29th overall, struggling in both run (30th) and pass (23rd).
  • Steelers Defense: Stronger against the run (14th) but vulnerable against the pass (32nd).

🔑 What to Watch For

  • Turnovers: Steelers have a +6 turnover differential, while the Bengals sit at -5.
  • QB Duel: Flacco vs. Rodgers is a rare “Battle of the Ages” — both over 40, both still slinging.
  • Division Impact: A Bengals win tightens the AFC North race dramatically; a Steelers win solidifies their lead.

Prediction:

  • This should be a fun AFC North game with two teams that really do not have a chance to win the division.
  • The Steelers are a bit fraudulent, and here is why.
  • In a bad NFL year of many below average teams, Pittsburgh ranks 20th in offensive EPA and 22nd on defense.   These numbers do not match their 5-4 record.
  • The Bengals have been quite piss poor when it comes to defense, this team is dead last in defensive EPA and 19th on offense.
  • The reason that I like the Bengals to cover here is that their offense has been flowing much better since Joe Flacco came aboard.
  • Since week eight, this team ranks 4th in offensive EPA while the Steelers rank 31st.   The recent play is very much the tell.
  • The weather looks like it could get pretty windy in the steel city.   Both teams may have to run the ball.   The Bengals rank 3rd rush EPA to the Steelers who rank a modest 15th.  The Bengals do give up more rushing yards, but stacking the box could be a game changer.   A push here at best.
  • I know that many people will look at this as a “revenge” spot for the Steelers from their heartbreaking loss earlier this season, but the Bengals are coming off the bye week.  Joe Burrow is almost ready to come in and potentially save this team into a wildcard spot.
  • I expect max effort from our friends in Cincinnati.  Take the cats.

Bengals + 5.5 – 2 stars

NFL Week 11 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Thursday Nov 12.  The most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Titans +7.5 to +6 hosting the Texans – 39% tickets and 51% of the money.
  • Bears +3 to +2.5 at the Vikings – 62% tickets and 79% of the money.
  • Chiefs -3 to -3.5 at the Broncos – 58% tickets and 76% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Commanders vs Dolphins under 48.5 to 47.5 – 90% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Bears vs Vikings over 45.5 to 48.5 – 53% tickets and 77% of the money.
  • Buccaneers vs Bills under 49.5 to 47.5 – 65% tickets and 75% of the money.
  • Cowboys vs Raiders over 45.5 to 50 – 42% tickets and 70% of the money.

College Football Week 12 Free Plays – Penn State vs Michigan State – Colorado State vs New Mexico – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Penn State vs Michigan State +7.5 O/U 49.5

🏟️ Game Details

  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
  • Broadcast: CBS

📊 Team Records & Odds

  • Penn State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
  • Michigan State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
  • Spread: Penn State -7
  • Over/Under: 49.5 points

🔑 Offensive Leaders

Category Penn State Michigan State
QB Ethan Grunkemeyer: 103/159, 1,100 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT A. Chiles: 128/203, 1,392 yds, 10 TD, 3 INT
RB Kaytron Allen: 138 carries, 736 yds, 10 TD Makhi Frazier: 108 carries, 493 yds, 2 TD
WR Trebor Pena: 32 rec, 331 yds, 1 TD Nick Marsh: 46 rec, 554 yds, 5 TD

🛡️ Defensive Leaders

  • Penn State: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton – 3 sacks
  • Michigan State: DE Michael Spencer – team leader in sacks

📈 Team Stats

  • Penn State Offense: 335.7 yards per game (110th in FBS)
    • Passing: 184.7 ypg (110th)
    • Rushing: Balanced attack led by Allen & Singleton
  • Penn State Defense: 325.8 yards allowed per game (33rd nationally)
  • Michigan State Offense: Slightly stronger passing game with Chiles & Marsh
  • Michigan State Defense: Struggling with injuries, multiple starters out

🏈 Game Context

  • Rivalry: The matchup is for the Land Grant Trophy, a traditional rivalry prize between the two schools.
  • Records: Both teams sit at 3–6 overall and 0–6 in Big Ten play, making this a battle to avoid finishing winless in conference.
  • Recent Form:
    • Penn State nearly upset No. 2 Indiana last week, losing 27–24 after surrendering a late touchdown.
    • Michigan State fell in overtime to Minnesota, 23–20, extending its losing streak to six games.

🔑 Key Storylines

  • Coaching Turmoil: Penn State fired longtime coach James Franklin a month ago. Interim coach Terry Smith is trying to salvage the season.
  • Michigan State Woes: The Spartans are dealing with vacated wins from past seasons due to ineligible players, plus multiple injuries across the roster.
  • Quarterback Watch: MSU redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic showed promise in his first start against Minnesota, and could be key against Penn State’s defense.
  • Penn State’s Close Calls: Despite their record, the Nittany Lions have lost five Big Ten games by a combined 16 points, showing they’ve been competitive.

Prediction:

  • Penn State literally went through a gauntlet of opponents after their Northwestern loss.   Losing by one to Iowa, playing a strong first half against Ohio State before the crumble, and almost beating Indiana straight up.
  • To be honest, I honestly do not see how this team could keep going more less laying over seven points on the road.
  • Michigan State is coming off of the bye week recharged and ready to roll.  As bad as this team has looked this year, they still only have a net negative .51 yards per play on a pretty rough schedule.
  • Penn State has a +.21 net yards per play, but this team is struggling with a backup quarterback.
  • Another thing that I like for Sparty is that the team benched struggling quarterback Aiden Childs for Alessio Milivojevic.   This kid has played pretty well thus far, and should be able to lead this team going forward.
  • Michigan State is in a good spot this week.   I believe that coach Jonathan Smith will get his guys motivated to try and make a bowl game.   I am just not sure what Penn State cares about this point with preseason playoff expectations.  Take the dog.

Michigan State +7.5 – 2.5 stars

Colorado State vs New Mexico -14.5 O/U 53.5

  • This is an under the radar Mountain West game that I feel has some value.
  • The Lobos are a force to be reckoned with.  With the San Diego State loss, this team has a shot to make the Mountain West championship game.
  • Colorado State on the other hand is a hopeless team.   They only have two wins with no chance of making a bowl game.
  • This Rams team has a -1.35 yards per play.  They are rank 95th in offensive EPA and 118th on defense.
  • The Lobos are a powerful mountain west team with solid numbers.   New Mexico ranks 41st in offensive EPA and 68th in defensive success rate.   They have some nice wins against Utah State and UCLA.  I think that the Lobos can clean up here pretty well coming off the bye week.    I’ll lay the points.

New Mexico -14.5 – 2 stars

College Football Week 12 Free Picks by Andrew

By
Andrew Clarke
-

My picks for the season are now .500 at 12-12 for the year, I am looking to get back in the black and help you do the same. My card is going to be little lighter as I do not see a lot of great opportunities not covered on the podcast and I am holding out for bowl season. Here a my picks for this coming weekend.

  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (12:00 PM/EST): Is Pittsburgh a much better team with Mason Heintschel at Quarterback? Sure they are but, they have also benefited from a pretty easy schedule beating up on the bottom feeders of the ACC. This is by far his toughest test to date and in case you did not hear Pitt’s coach earlier this week, this is not even the most important game left on their schedule in his eyes. For Notre Dame on the other hand this is the toughest game left on their schedule and an impressive win by margin will leave no doubt that they deserve a spot in the college football playoffs. Heintschel has been great but, he does put the ball in harms way and has not played a team that can take advantage of his mistakes. Notre Dame is the first team he has played who can capitalize on turnovers. I love the Pitt story and will look at them in the next few weeks but, I see the Irish looking to make a statement here.
  • Illinois Fighting Illini (-15) vs Maryland Terrapins (3:30 PM/EST): I think you can put a fork in the Terrapins as they might be done. Tough spot for the Terps as they have to play the second of back to back road games and the Illini are coming off a bye. Unlike their game last week where they lost by 15 on the road the Illini actually have a half way competent defense so they should be able to hold down the Terps offense enough to cover the spread. The Illini still have something to play for and you never know a couple extra wins by margin could keep them in the mix for the playoff.
  • North Carolina Tar Heels (+5.5) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4:30 PM/EST): Wake Forest is coming off a huge upset win and now host the Tar Heels. Last time Wake got a big win they got absolutely destroyed by Florida State. I don’t believe we will have a blow out here but, Wake Forest has problems on offense and I do not think they should be laying more than a field goal to any team in the ACC not named Boston College much less in-state rival. This game has the potential to be a very low scoring game as the over/under is only 38 so touchdowns will come at a premium. Wake probably wins by a filed goal but, I would not count out Chapel Bill from leading the Tar Heels to a bowl game in his first year in college and they sure need this one to get there.

College Football Friday Freebie – Minnesota vs Oregon – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
- 
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!  

54% Lifetime College &NFL Football ATS/Props/Totals

51% 2024 College Football & NFL -34U (Bad season)

56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!




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College Football Week 12 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday Nov 12.  The five most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Air Force +10.5 to +7 at UCONN – 71% tickets and 82% of the money.
  • Oregon State +1.5 to -2.5 at Tulsa – 50% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Michigan State +8.5 to +7 hosting Penn State – 77% tickets and 83% of the money.
  • USC -6 to -7 hosting Iowa – 67% tickets and 77% of the money.
  • Oklahoma +7 to +5.5 at Alabama – 59% tickets and 77% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • West Virginia vs Arizona State over 46.5 to 48.5 – 81% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Penn State vs Michigan State over 47.5 to 49 – 64% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • San Jose State vs Nevada over 48.5 to 52.5 – 65% tickets and 82% of the money.
  • Texas vs Georgia under 51.5 to 48.5 – 39% tickets and 47% of the money.
  • Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State over 51.5 to 54.5 – 71% tickets and 92% of the money.

Podcast 758 – 94 – 25 – With Raphael Esparza – NFL Week 11 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports from @DocsSports and My Bookie is back to break down a big week in the NFL.   First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS.  Next, Raph comes on and the guys get right into the big matchups of the weekend.  Then, the boys talk about the prop bets and why athletes are making massive mistakes.   After that, they discuss some buy low/sell high teams to find some value in the near future.  Next, Raphael and Kiev get into the full slate of NFL games with some free plays and Best Bets!  Then, the boys talk some long shot bets that may hit for some beer money.  Following that, Kiev gives out his Refuse to lose teaser that is a bloody 3-7.  After that, we go over some sharp money movement for the week.  Then, we talk a little UFC 322 with some more plays.  Finally, Kiev recaps our plays!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

 

 

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