NHL Picks & Props – March 27th, 2026

By

-

March 27, 2026

Tonight’s NHL slate may only feature two games, but there is still plenty of value to be found. Whether you’re an experienced bettor or just getting started, there are opportunities across moneylines, puck lines, and player props. With teams battling for playoff positioning down the stretch, let’s break down the key matchups and highlight some of the best bets for Friday night’s action.

Detroit Red Wings @ Buffalo Sabres

Ben Chiarot 2+ Blocked Shots (-145) – DraftKings

The Red Wings find themselves in a desperate spot after spending much of the season in a playoff position. With just 11 games remaining, they are now on the outside looking in, going 6-9-3 since January 27 and 2-4-1 since March 10.

This matchup against a division rival carries massive weight. A regulation loss would drop Detroit’s playoff odds to around 27%, making this game feel like a must win. Expect a heightened level of urgency and physicality from this group.

Ben Chiarot, a veteran leader on the blue line, understands the stakes. Detroit has not made the postseason since the 2015-16 season, and Chiarot has yet to experience playoff hockey with the team since joining in 2022.

Chiarot has recorded two or more blocked shots in six of his last seven games. He has also been more reliable on the road this season, hitting this mark in 71.4% of away games compared to 55.6% at home.

While blocked shots are often targeted more heavily in the postseason, the urgency of Detroit’s situation makes this feel like a playoff style game, setting up well for Chiarot to be active in the defensive zone once again.

Chicago Blackhawks @ New York Rangers

Anton Frondell 1+ Point (-110) – DraftKings

Anton Frondell, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, has made an immediate impact in his first two games with the Blackhawks. He is skating on the top line alongside Connor Bedard and Ryan Greene while also seeing time on the first power play unit.

Frondell has recorded a point in each of his first two games, picking up back-to-back assists. While Chicago has struggled to generate offense for much of the season, this matchup sets up well. The Rangers have been struggling defensively as of late, which could open the door for Frondell to stay hot and extend his point streak.

Sources:

Linemate – Player/ Team Props

I’ve been using Linemate since the start, and it has proven to be an invaluable resource for NHL betting. One of its standout features is the comprehensive data and analytics that help bettors make informed decisions when placing prop bets. The platform also boasts a user-friendly interface, making it accessible for both experienced bettors and newcomers alike, allowing them to easily navigate and find the best prop bets. By utilizing Linemate’s robust tools and resources, NHL prop betters can significantly enhance their chances of making profitable wagers throughout the season. Beyond NHL betting, Linemate also provides in-depth data on various other sports, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAAF, EPL, and many more leagues and sports.

Linemate Link

Best of luck, and as always, you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback, whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.

College Basketball Sweet 16 Friday Best Bets – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 27, 2026

St. John’s vs Duke -6.5 O/U 142.5

🔥 St. John’s vs. Duke — Sweet 16 Preview

Friday, March 27 — 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS

This matchup has all the ingredients of a heavyweight Sweet 16 fight: a No. 1 overall seed with the best defense in the country, a surging Big East champion that’s won 21 of its last 22, and two superstar big men who anchor everything their teams do.

🧱 Identity Check: How These Teams Win

Duke (34–2)

Elite defense: No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Momentum: 13 straight wins, including an 81–58 dismantling of TCU.
Star power: Cameron Boozer is playing like the best player in the tournament.
Injury watch: PG Caleb Foster (foot) is still sidelined; C Patrick Ngongba III recently returned.

St. John’s (30–6)

Relentless pressure: Full‑court defense, turnover creation, and physicality.
Momentum: First Sweet 16 since 1999 after a dramatic 67–65 win over Kansas.
Star power: Zuby Ejiofor, Big East Player of the Year, is the emotional and tactical engine.
Confidence: Winners of 21 of their last 22.

📊 Matchup Data That Actually Matters

Recent Tournament Results

Duke:
- Beat Siena 71–65
- Beat TCU 81–58
St. John’s:
- Beat UNI 79–53
- Beat Kansas 67–65

Key Statistical Edges

Free Throws

Duke: 20-of-23 vs. TCU
St. John’s: 6-of-11 vs. Kansas Free‑throw reliability leans heavily toward Duke.

Shooting Trends

Neither team is shooting well in the tournament:

Duke’s Isaiah Evans: 6–14 FG, 2–8 3PT in both games
St. John’s Ian Jackson: 7–17 FG, 3–9 3PT One of these wings likely swings the game.

Projected Scoring (Model Data)

Boozer projected: 23.1 points
Ejiofor projected: 15.3 points
Total projected: 148 points(model leans Over)

🧩 Tactical Matchups

1. The Paint Battle: Boozer vs. Ejiofor

Both teams “own the paint practically every night,” but Duke is bigger with Ngongba back. St. John’s is more physical, but Duke’s size and discipline give them a slight edge.

2. Pressure vs. Ball‑Handling

St. John’s will press for 40 minutes. Duke is without Caleb Foster, making this the most dangerous part of the matchup for the Blue Devils.

3. Rebounding & Second Chances

Duke limits offensive rebounds and free throws better than almost anyone — two areas St. John’s relies on heavily.

4. Three‑Point Variance

St. John’s has suddenly hit double‑digit threes in both tournament games after not doing so since January. Duke’s perimeter defense is elite, so this is unlikely to continue.

Prediction:

This is a very interesting game as St John’s needed every bit of stamina to come out of that horrible finish to their last game against Kansas.
Duke has been injured this post season, but it is looking like they might finally get healthy with Caleb Foster potentially coming back for Friday, while they got another inside beast back last weekend in Patrick Ngongba.
If there was anywhere that Duke isn’t completely sharp, it’s their three point shooting which ranks 142nd in the nation. Everywhere else, this team is solid to great.
The Johnnies have a problem shooting the ball themselves as we all saw against Kansas. They won that game with pure defense, and I have to wonder if their 157th effective FG% is good enough to beat a team that can also rebound as well as Duke can. I do not think that the Johnnies have it as easy down low to clean up boards against the number 9 defensive rebounding team in the nation.
I will say that St Johns steps up to their competition as we saw twice against UCONN, and this team has only lost once since January 4th.
I think that Saint John’s keeps it strong the first half, but it’s hard to trust them at the end of the game against Duke.

St John’s 1st half +3.5

Alabama vs Michigan -9.5 O/U 174.5

🔥 Alabama vs. Michigan — Sweet 16 Preview

Friday, March 27 — 7:35 p.m. ET | United Center, Chicago TV: TBS / truTV

This one has all the ingredients of a classic: Michigan, the most consistent team in the region, against an Alabama squad that just played its best game of the season and has the firepower to beat anyone when the threes are falling.

🧭 The Big Picture

Michigan (33–3)

No. 1 seed, dominant at both ends.
Top‑10 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency.
Scored 196 points across their first two tournament games.
Elite ball movement: 18.8 assists per game (4th nationally).

Alabama (25–9)

No. 4 seed, explosive and unpredictable.
Scored 180 points in their first two tournament games.
Ranks 4th nationally in pace and takes more threes than anyone (~36 per game).
Coming off a 19‑made‑threes performance vs. Texas Tech.

📊 Matchup Data That Matters

Recent Tournament Results

Michigan:
- Howard 101–80
- Saint Louis 95–72 (shot 56% FG, 48% from three)
Alabama:
- Hofstra 90–70
- Texas Tech 90–65 (19-of-42 from three; held Tech to 4-of-25 from deep)

Scoring & Efficiency

Alabama averages 91.6 points per game, 22 more than Michigan typically allows.
Michigan’s defense is elite at the rim — a problem for an Alabama team that ranks 318th in shots at the rim and relies heavily on perimeter volume.

Key Players

Michigan

Yaxel Lendeborg: 14.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG.
Elliot Cadeau: 5.7 APG, the engine of their half‑court execution.

Alabama

Labaron Philon: 21.6 PPG, 5.0 APG — must be elite for Bama to hang.
Latrell Wrightsell Jr.: 14.5 PPG over last 10.

🧩 Tactical Breakdown

1. Pace vs. Control

Alabama wants a track meet. Michigan wants a chess match. If the game hits 80+ possessions, Alabama’s live. If it slows down, Michigan’s discipline wins.

2. Three‑Point Math

Alabama’s path is simple:

Take 35–40 threes
Hit 14–18 of them
Stretch Michigan’s defense

Michigan is good at running teams off the line — but Alabama’s volume is extreme.

3. Interior Advantage

Michigan’s size and efficiency inside are a major edge. Alabama doesn’t post up and rarely scores at the rim, making them vulnerable if the threes cool off.

4. Injuries

Alabama: Still without suspended guard Aden Holloway.
Michigan: Still without L.J. Cason (knee).

Both absences matter for depth and ball‑handling.

Prediction:

What a wonderful matchup here as Michigan easily takes care of business in covering both of their games, while Alabama did the exact same without one of their stars in Aden Holloway.
These big schools feel like a huge football game.
I am not going to lie here. I am very confused in Alabama’s performances while short handed. This team was unconscious from three point land, and I have never seen them turn the ball over so little, and play defense so well. I am actually comfortable in saying that if Alabama played any other team the way that they played Texas Tech, they probably win. This is counting the likes of Michigan, Duke and Arizona. There has not been a total performance as good as Alabama’s this tournament.
Then what is the problem here? Well, I do not think that Alabama is quite as deep now that Holloway is gone. Can Latrell Wrightsell come anywhere close to matching his 24 points?
None the less, Alabama has been this far twice in the past few years, and they will want to leave a mark.
I expect Alabama to play that relentless defense again, and continue to not turn the ball over ranking 10th in that category in the nation.
The only problem with Michigan minus losing LJ Cason this year is that they can get sloppy themselves and play into Alabama’s hands. We all saw the dangers of facing a team like Wisconsin who shoots the three ball using the run and gun. Alabama is that same type of profile who doesn’t turn over the ball.
With the lack of turnovers, I think that Michigan will want to keep this game in the half court. This opens up longer scoring draughts.
I think that there won’t be quite as many points as people think this game. I can see many ways that this game goes under…

Under 174.5 – 2 stars

College Basketball Sweet 16 Thirsty Thursday Plays

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 26, 2026

Texas vs Purdue -7 O/U 147.5

🏀 Matchup Overview

Game: Sweet 16 – NCAA Tournament
Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
Location: SAP Center, San Jose
Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

🔍 Team Profiles

Purdue Boilermakers (#2 seed, 29–8)

Strengths:
- Smart, efficient offense; strong ball movement (19.9 assists per game).
- Excellent shooting: 50% FG, 37.9% from three.
- Backcourt led by Braden Smith (14.3 PPG, 9 APG) and Fletcher Loyer.
- Recent form: 7–3 in last 10, averaging 80.2 PPG.
Weaknesses:
- Not as dominant on the boards as in the Zach Edey era.
- Vulnerable to athletic, attacking teams.
Key storyline: Facing former teammate Camden Heide, now a Texas starter.

Texas Longhorns (#11 seed, 21–14)

Strengths:
- Athletic, aggressive, and elite at getting to the free‑throw line.
- Balanced scoring: 82.9 PPG, with four players averaging 13+ PPG.
- Matas Vokietaitis (7’0″) emerging as a force inside (40 points, 25 rebounds over last two games).
- Tenacious offensive rebounding and physicality.
Weaknesses:
- Defensive inconsistency (allowing 76.1 PPG).
- Streaky shooting; relies heavily on rim pressure.
Cinderella factor: Entered via First Four and knocked off BYU and Gonzaga.

🔑 Key Matchups to Watch

1. Braden Smith (Purdue) vs. Dailyn Swain (Texas)

Smith’s playmaking vs. Swain’s athleticism and defensive pressure.
Texas needs Swain to disrupt Purdue’s rhythm; Purdue needs Smith to avoid turnovers (8 vs. Miami).

2. Trey Kaufman‑Renn (Purdue) vs. Matas Vokietaitis (Texas)

Purdue’s versatile forward vs. Texas’ bruising 7‑footer.
Whoever controls the paint and defensive boards gains a major edge.

3. Camden Heide vs. His Former Team

Heide’s familiarity with Purdue’s system adds intrigue.
Elite 46% three‑point shooter—could swing momentum if he gets hot.

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category	Texas	Purdue
Points per game	82.9	82.2
Points allowed	76.1	70.1
FG%	48.6%	49.9%
3FG%	35.3%	37.9%
Rebounds	37.7	35.3
Turnovers	11.0	8.9

🧠 What Each Team Must Do to Win

Texas Path to Victory

Attack relentlessly to draw fouls—Texas ranks among the best in FTA and FTM.
Use size to control the boards and limit Purdue’s second‑chance threes.
Force Purdue into isolation by disrupting their passing lanes.

Purdue Path to Victory

Control tempo through Smith; avoid live‑ball turnovers.
Hit threes—Purdue averages 9.4 made threes per game, a major advantage.
Keep Texas off the free‑throw line and win defensive rebounding battles.

Prediction:

This is an interesting game as Texas all of a sudden went from looking like a team not deserving to make the tournament to playing out of their minds beating good BYU and Gonzaga teams.
Texas really stepped up their defense, but can they continue this madness when they only ranked 81st in defensive efficiency? Likely not.
Neither of these teams are consistent and it’s hard to have a great stance on what to expect, but this number is getting a bit low for 11 vs 2 seed standards.
Purdue last game lost starting guard CJ Cox to an injury, but he then said that he “could” have continued on if needed.
The number is short on this. Kenpom has this an 8 point spread, and Bart Torvik has 9.7. I will lay the points.

Purdue -7 – 2.5 stars

Kiev O'Neil

The OddsBreakers • March 26, 2026 at 3:16pm

Pick

Odds

HomePointSpread -7.5

Spread

NCAAB • Texas Longhorns @ Purdue Boilermakers

-105 on FanDuel

CLOSED • 03/26/2026

Betslip #1774538174587-a0f4-565

Iowa vs Nebraska -1.5 O/U 131.5

🏀 Game Overview

Matchup: No. 4 Nebraska (28–6) vs. No. 9 Iowa (23–12)
Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
Time: 6:30 p.m. CT
Location: Toyota Center, Houston
TV: TBS / truTV

🔍 How They Got Here

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Program’s first-ever Sweet 16 appearance, after finally earning their first NCAA Tournament wins.
Survived Vanderbilt 74–72 thanks to Braden Frager’s go‑ahead basket with 2.2 seconds left.
Shooting the ball extremely well: 56% FG and 47% from three in the last game.
Led by Pryce Sandfort (17.9 PPG), who’s averaging 19.0 PPG in the tournament on 55% shooting.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999.
Shocked defending national champion Florida 73–72 on a clutch Alvaro Folgueiras three with 4.5 seconds left.
Offense is efficient and balanced; Iowa ranks 15th nationally in effective FG%.
Key scorer: Bennett Stirtz, projected near 20 points in this matchup.

🔥 Season Series Recap

Split 1–1 during the regular season.
- Iowa won 57–52 in Iowa City (Feb. 17).
- Nebraska won 84–75 (OT) in Lincoln (Mar. 8).
Both games were physical, defensive, and tightly contested—expect more of the same.

🧠 Key Matchups & Storylines

1. Pryce Sandfort vs. His Former Team

Sandfort began his career at Iowa and now leads Nebraska’s offense.
His shooting could swing the game.

2. Iowa’s Perimeter Defense vs. Nebraska’s Elite Shooting

Nebraska is among the nation’s best in effective FG%.
Iowa’s defense has improved dramatically during the tournament.

3. Clutch Guards on Both Sides

Iowa: Folgueiras, Banks, and Stirtz have delivered late‑game heroics.
Nebraska: Frager’s emergence as a fearless finisher adds another dimension.

📊 Betting & Analytics Snapshot

Category	Iowa	Nebraska
Record	23–12	28–6
Spread	+1.5	-1.5
O/U	132.5	132.5
Neutral‑site record	6–1	5–1

Prediction:

Nebraska favored by 1.5, but Iowa’s momentum makes this extremely tight.

This is certainly an interesting bracket matchup between two teams that recently played each other twice. Both of these teams split.
Both teams have near proximity matchup advantages, yet Nebraska will have some advantages from beyond the arc against a poor 3 point defense in Iowa that ranks 251st on Kenpom. You can see here on Haslmetrics where
In the Hawkeye’s game vs Florida, you could tell that the better team was losing. If there was five more minutes, I think that the Gators would have pulled through.
When Nebraska played Vanderbilt, it as easy to see which team was actually better.
I think Nebraska should win, but I would caution laying lots of points here.

Nebraska ML -130 – 2.5 stars

Podcast 805 – 29 – 26 – With Marco D’Angelo – NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 26, 2026

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast — The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE show for you today! Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @Wagertalk is back to break down a huge weekend of games! First, Kiev talks about his sweet 16 survivor reboot! Next, Marco comes on and talks about a horse as well as Cinderella. Next, the guys talk about some NCAA tournament surprises. Then, the boys get into every game of the sweet 16 with a lean or a play. After that, Marco and Kiev give us their updated final 4! Finally, the guys give out a beer bet banger long shot that could be fun for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament SWEET 16 survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

Podcast 804 – 28 – 26 – NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Day 1 Best Bets – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 25, 2026

We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to talk about the NCAA tournament and the sweet 16! First, Kiev talks about the favorites hitting and the reasons for that happening. Next, Kiev talks the first four games of the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 with some best bets! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament SWEET 16 survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

Podcast 803 – 27 – 26 – NCAA Tournament Weekend Recap & Sweet 16 First Look – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 23, 2026

We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps the first weekend and first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. We also give out an early Best Bet for the sweet 16! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

Make sure you get in our NCAA Tournament SWEET 16 survivor contest for $20 a piece https://app.splashsports.com/contest/c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454/detail?utm_source=SplashWeb&utm_medium=ManageContest&utm_content=btn_invite&utm_campaign=c700746f-c01d-4d0c-a749-80e68e7c1454&utm_referrer=c4194175-a675-4b8a-ac5b-96277aa9a741

Use Promo Code Basketball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

March Madness 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Survivor Contest

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 23, 2026

Click Here to join!

Did your survivor get busted? We got you covered for a second chance at cashing! Ultimate NCAA TOURNAMENT Sweet 16 survivor reboot is back & brought to you by The OddsBreakers! Contest revivals are activated: If all entrants in a Survivor contest are eliminated in the same week, rather than ending the contest with no winner, the contest is revived.

Entrants attempt to select the winner Straight Up for 1 game per day. Entrants that select only winners Straight Up will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, or multiple entrants survive the final slate, the winner(s) will be determined based on tiebreaker rules.

Check the individual day tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each day. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.

Winner(s) Take All Up To

Up To $437,500.00

JOIN HERE!

About this contest

Entry Fee – $20

Sport –Basketball

Contest Type –Survivor

Multi-Entry – Yes (10)

Entry Deadline – 3/26 @ 4:10 PM

Pick Deadline – Game start

College Basketball NCAA tournament Sunday Fun-Day Plays

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 22, 2026

Saint John’s vs Kansas +3.5 O/U 144.5

🔥 Game Preview: Kansas vs. St. John’s

Round of 32 – NCAA Tournament Date: Sunday, March 22 Time: 5:15 PM ET Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego TV: CBS

📈 Team Momentum & Recent Form

St. John’s Red Storm (29–6)

20–1 in their last 21 games, including a dominant Big East Tournament run.
Blew out Northern Iowa 79–53 in Round 1.
Elite at rebounding, interior scoring, and defensive pressure.
Rick Pitino has them playing fast, physical, and confident.

Kansas Jayhawks (24–10)

Survived Cal Baptist 68–60 in Round 1.
Inconsistent season overall, but the talent ceiling is extremely high.
Darryn Peterson (potential No. 1 NBA pick) is heating up at the perfect time—28 points in Round 1.

🧩 Key Matchups & Storylines

⭐ Darryn Peterson vs. St. John’s Defense

Peterson is the best player on the floor—explosive, dynamic, and capable of taking over. St. John’s will try to disrupt him with length and physicality, but few teams have succeeded when he’s locked in.

🏀 Rebounding Battle

St. John’s is elite on the boards, but Kansas counters with size:

Flory Bidunga
Bryson Tiller
Paul Mbiya All 6’10″+. This matchup could decide the game.

🎯 Three‑Point Shooting & Free Throws

Kansas shoots the 3 better and is 35th nationally in FT%, a major edge in a physical game. St. John’s perimeter shooting is streaky.

📊 Betting & Odds Snapshot

Spread: St. John’s -2.5
Moneyline: Kansas +140 / St. John’s -166
Total: 142.5

Experts are split:

Some models lean St. John’s by a bucket.
Others see Kansas’ talent and shooting as the difference.

Prediction:

This one is a kind of a no brainer to me. Both of these teams hit cold streaks quite often on offense. Saint John’s only ranks 189th in effective FG%. Kansas is right there ranking 182nd in effective FG%
Kansas also struggles rebounding the ball only ranking 225th in offensive rebound percentage.
What both teams do well is defend. Kansas ranks 9th in defensive efficiency while the Johnnies rank 10th.
Kansas is 11-23 to the under at 67.7% while Saint John’s is 12-22 which is 64.7%. Take the under.

Under 144.5 – 2.5 stars

Kiev O'Neil

The OddsBreakers • March 22, 2026 at 2:56pm

Pick

Odds

Under +144.5

Over/Under

NCAAB • St. John's Red Storm @ Kansas Jayhawks

-110 on BetMGM

CLOSED • 03/22/2026

Betslip #1774191405115-a0f4-183

Utah State vs Arizona -11.5 O/U 153.5

🔥 Utah State vs. Arizona — Game Preview

Date: Sunday, March 22 Time: 7:50 PM ET Location: Viejas Arena, San Diego TV: truTV

📈 Team Profiles

🐺 Arizona Wildcats (33–2, No. 1 Seed)

Absolutely rolled LIU 92–58 in Round 1.
One of the best teams in the country:
- No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency and Top‑5 in offense.
- 86.3 PPG, shooting 50.3% from the field.
Elite size and rebounding:
- Outrebounded LIU 52–31.
- Frontcourt features Koa Peat, Toby Awaka, Ivan Kharchenkov, and Motiejus Krivas—all strong rebounders.
10–0 in their last 10 games, winning by an average of 13+ points.

🔵 Utah State Aggies (29–6, No. 9 Seed)

Beat Villanova 86–76 behind physical defense and efficient scoring.
One of the most efficient offenses in the country:
- 82+ PPG, 14th nationally in FG%.
Guards MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev combine for nearly 34 PPG.
Strong defensive metrics: opponents shoot just 42% from the field.
7–3 in their last 10, averaging 77.5 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups & Storylines

⭐ Arizona’s Size vs. Utah State’s Efficiency

Utah State is efficient, but Arizona’s frontcourt is overwhelming. The Aggies’ top rebounder is a 6’3″ guard, which could be a major problem against Arizona’s elite bigs.

🎯 Three‑Point Battle

Utah State hits 8.4 threes per game, slightly above what Arizona typically allows.
Arizona doesn’t rely on threes—its attack is built on pace, transition, and interior scoring.

🏀 Tempo & Turnovers

Arizona wants to run, but Utah State’s system is built on discipline and ball movement. Tommy Lloyd emphasized rebounding and ball security as keys to pushing pace.

📊 Betting Snapshot

Spread: Arizona -11.5
Total: 154.5
Moneyline: Utah State +550 / Arizona -800

Arizona has covered big numbers all season, but Utah State’s offense gives them upset‑spoiler potential.

Prediction:

It was fun to see the Aggies take out Villanova in the first round, but let’s be real, the Cats shot only three pointers the whole game and did not really attempt to go inside.
This different Wildcat team is the must complete team in college basketball with an offense ranking 4th in efficiency and a defense ranking 3rd. Arizona will be able to score from anywhere on the court against Utah State.
The Aggies are not used to playing an offense of this caliber being stuck in the Mountain West. When they stepped up against South Florida in the non-conference, they were beat 74-61. VCU and Villanova was their best competition with neither of those teams ranked in the top 30 in Kenpom.
Lay the points.

Arizona -11.5 – 2 stars

College Basketball Saturday Super Plays

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 21, 2026

VCU vs Illinois -10.5 O/U 152.5

🏀 VCU vs. Illinois — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 6:50 p.m. CT / 7:50 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Illinois Fighting Illini (25–8, 3‑seed)

Dominated Penn 105–70 in Round 1, scoring from all levels: 15 threes, 44 paint points, and 16 free throws.
One of the nation’s top offenses, ranking near the top in efficiency.
Strong on the glass — Big Ten leader in offensive rebounds.
Freshman forward David Mirkovic is surging after a 29-point, 17-rebound tournament debut.

VCU Rams (28–7, 11‑seed)

Riding high after a 19‑point comeback to upset North Carolina in OT.
Dangerous from deep: shot 42% from three in the upset win.
Guard Terrence Hill Jr. is red‑hot, scoring 34 points vs UNC.
Entering the game 9–1 in their last 10, averaging 76.2 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups

Illinois Size vs. VCU Activity

Illinois features a massive frontcourt with 7‑1 Tomislav Ivišić and 7‑2 Zvonimir Ivišić, creating a major interior mismatch.
VCU struggled on the boards vs UNC (-6) and will be challenged again.

VCU’s Perimeter Shooting vs. Illinois’ Defensive Variability

Illinois is 6–6 when opponents shoot 36%+ from three.
VCU is 26–1 when hitting 32%+ from deep. This is the Rams’ clearest path to an upset.

Star Power

Illinois: Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG), Mirkovic (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
VCU: Terrence Hill Jr. (14.9 PPG), Lazar Djokovic (13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG).

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category	Illinois	VCU
Points per game	85.9 (last 10)	76.2 (last 10)
Offensive rebounds	12.2 per game (Big Ten leader)	—
3‑pt makes per game	11.0	Allows 6.8 per game
Field goal %	45.4%	44.3%

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

VCU Path to Victory

Hit threes early and often.
Force Illinois into perimeter‑heavy possessions.
Create turnovers and run in transition.
Hope Hill Jr. stays scorching hot.

Illinois Path to Victory

Pound the paint and dominate the glass.
Avoid settling for early threes.
Let Mirkovic and the Ivišić brothers wear down VCU’s frontcourt.
Maintain defensive focus against VCU’s streaky shooters.

🏀 VCU vs. Illinois — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 6:50 p.m. CT / 7:50 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Illinois Fighting Illini (25–8, 3‑seed)

Dominated Penn 105–70 in Round 1, scoring from all levels: 15 threes, 44 paint points, and 16 free throws.
One of the nation’s top offenses, ranking near the top in efficiency.
Strong on the glass — Big Ten leader in offensive rebounds.
Freshman forward David Mirkovic is surging after a 29-point, 17-rebound tournament debut.

VCU Rams (28–7, 11‑seed)

Riding high after a 19‑point comeback to upset North Carolina in OT.
Dangerous from deep: shot 42% from three in the upset win.
Guard Terrence Hill Jr. is red‑hot, scoring 34 points vs UNC.
Entering the game 9–1 in their last 10, averaging 76.2 PPG.

🧩 Key Matchups

Illinois Size vs. VCU Activity

Illinois features a massive frontcourt with 7‑1 Tomislav Ivišić and 7‑2 Zvonimir Ivišić, creating a major interior mismatch.
VCU struggled on the boards vs UNC (-6) and will be challenged again.

VCU’s Perimeter Shooting vs. Illinois’ Defensive Variability

Illinois is 6–6 when opponents shoot 36%+ from three.
VCU is 26–1 when hitting 32%+ from deep. This is the Rams’ clearest path to an upset.

Star Power

Illinois: Keaton Wagler (17.9 PPG), Mirkovic (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG).
VCU: Terrence Hill Jr. (14.9 PPG), Lazar Djokovic (13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG).

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category	Illinois	VCU
Points per game	85.9 (last 10)	76.2 (last 10)
Offensive rebounds	12.2 per game (Big Ten leader)	—
3‑pt makes per game	11.0	Allows 6.8 per game
Field goal %	45.4%	44.3%

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

VCU Path to Victory

Hit threes early and often.
Force Illinois into perimeter‑heavy possessions.
Create turnovers and run in transition.
Hope Hill Jr. stays scorching hot.

Illinois Path to Victory

Pound the paint and dominate the glass.
Avoid settling for early threes.
Let Mirkovic and the Ivišić brothers wear down VCU’s frontcourt.
Maintain defensive focus against VCU’s streaky shooters.

Prediction:

This is a simple handicap to me. VCU knows how to run and gun ranking 59th in tempo. The Illini will do the same when they are in a close game.
VCU doesn’t rebound great, but they do get to the free throw line ranking 22nd in Free throws over FG attempts.
The Illini will get to 85 points. They have the best and most efficient offense in basketball, but their defense only ranks 28th in efficiency.
VCU ranks 22nd in three point percentage. I expect their points in the 70s. I think that this one goes over the total.

Over 152.5 – 2 stars

TCU vs Duke -11.5 O/U 139.5

🏀 TCU vs. Duke — Game Preview

Round of 32 • NCAA Tournament Date: Saturday, March 21 Time: 5:15 p.m. ET Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC TV: CBS

🔥 Recent Form & Momentum

Duke Blue Devils (33–2, 1‑seed)

Narrow escape vs Siena, 71–65, after trailing by 13 in the second half.
Riding a 12‑game winning streak and dominant overall season.
Cameron Boozer posted 22 points, 13 rebounds in Round 1.
Injury watch: Patrick Ngongba is questionable with a foot injury.

TCU Horned Frogs (23–11, 9‑seed)

Survived Ohio State 66–64 on a late Xavier Edmonds basket.
Have won 7 of their last 8 and are playing with confidence.
Micah Robinson (18 pts) and David Punch (16 pts, 13 reb) led the way in Round 1.

🧩 Key Matchups

Cameron Boozer vs. TCU’s Frontcourt

Boozer is averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds.
TCU counters with Punch, Edmonds, and Robinson, all physical and active rebounders.
This matchup likely decides the game’s tone inside.

Tempo & Physicality

Duke struggled when Siena slowed the pace and mucked up the rhythm.
TCU can hang on the offensive glass and limit Duke’s transition game.

Shooting & Efficiency

Duke averages 9 made threes per game, more than TCU typically allows.
TCU shoots the three at 33%, so they must find perimeter production to keep pace.

📊 Statistical Snapshot

Category	Duke	TCU
Record	33–2	23–11
Last 10 games	10–0	8–2
Avg. Points	82.0	77.3
Rebounding	+18.8 margin	Strong O‑boards (10.3/game)
Spread	Duke -11.5	—
O/U	140.5	—

🧠 What Each Team Needs to Do

TCU Path to Victory

Slow the tempo and prevent Duke from finding rhythm.
Attack the offensive glass for second‑chance points.
Get strong scoring from Punch, Robinson, and Edmonds.
Hit enough threes to keep Duke honest.

Duke Path to Victory

Start faster than vs Siena—avoid early deficits.
Dominate the paint through Boozer and (if available) Ngongba.
Use perimeter shooting to stretch TCU’s defense.
Maintain defensive intensity for 40 minutes.

Prediction:

I like getting on teams after they had a bad game. Saying that Duke had a bad game against Siena is an understatement as they were losing until about 6 minutes left.
TCU got by a cold Ohio State teams with a fight. This Horned Frogs team has been wildly inconsitent this year losing to teams like Utah, Notre Dame, and Colorado by double digits. The Blue Devils are a great team and they have some serious ballers. They will have matchup advantages over TCU from deep threes as well as near the rim. TCU only ranks 200 in effective FG% and 82nd in offensive efficiency. That is no where near close enough to keep up with Duke. Duke has the number 1 defense and the number 6 offense in the league. Lay the points.

Duke -11.5 – 2 stars

NCAA Tournament Free Friday Best Bets – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 20, 2026

Akron vs Texas Tech -7.5 O/U 155.5

This is a simple handicap to me in Tampa Florida. Texas Tech lost their best player in JT Toppin earlier this year. It doesn’t always affect them when they are hitting their threes, but Akron has a pretty good three point shot themselves ranking 14th in the nation at 38.5%.
Since losing JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have struggled to rebound the ball losing to teams like Arizona State, TCU, and an injured BYU team.
I think that we see a lot of points this game, but I also think that Akron has a shot to not only cover this spread, they can win it outright with the 8th best effective FG%. Take the Zips against an Injured Texas Tech team.

Akron +7.5 – 2.5 stars

Utah State vs Villanova +2 O/U 147

This should be a fun game San Diego California. This is a long way to travel for Villanova all the way from the East coast to play the pride of the Mountain West.
The Wildcats have been a decent team under new coach Kevin Willard, but they are in an easier big east this year with no wins against any team ranked 51 or higher on Kenpom.
The Wildcats have injury issues with forward Matt Hodge with a torn ACL that greatly affected their game in a loss in their conference tournament against Georgetown.
Villanova struggle to get to the free throw line ranking 277th in free throw attempts and 290th in free throw percentage.
The Cats also do not defend well ranking 177th in opponent effective FG%
The number 30th ranked Aggies have a great offense ranking 28th in efficiency and a solid defense ranking 25th. They will win the rebounding advantage with Nova’s injury to Hodge. Take the Aggies.

Utah State -2 – 2.5 stars

Purdue vs Queens +25.5 O/U 163.5

This isn’t hard for me. Purdue has been a bit of a strange team without the big front court. Yes, their number look good with all of their experience, but this team also struggled to beat Memphis and Oakland earlier this year by 10 points.
Until the big 10 tournament, the Boilermakers have lost four out of their last six big 10 games. When they beat Michigan in the big 10 tournament, I feel that was a lot more about Michigan truly not caring to win this two years in a row.
Queens isn’t a good team, and they play terrible defense ranking 322nd in the league in defensive efficiency, but this team does have a solid offense ranking 15th in effective FG%. I think that if they get into some serious trouble, they can potentially back door Purdue who may have their scrubs in.
I also think that this is just more of a fade of a team that won their conference tournament laying a giant number.

Queens +25.5 – 2 stars

Cal Baptist vs Kansas -14.5 O/U 137.5

This is a fun game being that it is in San Diego and Cal Baptist is only around 100 miles away.
I seriously hope that the whole school shows up for this game to root for the Lancers.
I myself was pretty shocked to see Cal Baptist take out Utah valley in a slug of a game, but here we are.
This Cal Baptist team, even though close to home, has no chance in scoring against Kansas who ranks 10th in defensive efficiency.
The Lancers rank 302nd in offensive efficiency. They may not score 55 points.
Kansas doesn’t have a great offense this year when Peterson sits and that is why the Wildcats only rank 57th themselves.
The Jayhawks have went under a lot this year at 66% 11-22, as well as Cal Baptist at 12-21 to the under at 64%. Massive numbers.
Lastly, the Jayhawks perform poorly away from home ranking 348th in road/home splits on Haslametrics. I like the under a lot here.

Under 137.5 – 2.5 stars