The highly anticipated final chapter between Connor McGregor and Dustin Poirier will conclude Saturday night. UFC 264 is an awesome card full of great fights and opportunity– here are my best bets for the big PPV.
Omari Akhmedov (+140), 1.5 units: Omari Akhmedov (21-5-1) faces Brad Tavares (18-6) in the early part of the prelims and I see some great value on the underdog. These fighters have a pretty similar history against a relatively similar quality of opponent, though I’d have to give the nod to Akhmedov. The Russian lost his last bout in 2020 against Chris Weidman, which is certainly nothing to hang his head over, and he even earned a draw against Marvin Vettori back in 2017. Along the way to UFC 264 he’s beat names like Tom Breese, Ian Heinisch, Zack Cummings, and Tim Boetsch. Usually he’s a decision-machine but his most recent victory against Breese came via a 2nd round arm-triangle, a nice addition to a fighter who’s already dominant on the mat. Akhmedov brings a significant wrestling advantage to this contest and while Tavares is great at defending takedowns, a host of injuries and disparate competition (he hasn’t fought twice in one year since 2018) could spell some lag in his energy. I like the Russian to get a W Saturday.
Jennifer Maia (-200), 2 units: This one was a pretty easy pick for me. Jennifer Maia will take on Jessica Eye in a prelim battle between two long-time flyweight warriors. As far as the on-paper comparison goes, “Eye averages 3.76 significant strikes/minute at 37% accuracy. Meanwhile, Maia averages 3.34 significant strikes/minute with 39% accuracy. In short, Maia can match Eye’s typical path to victory; and, she has a distinct advantage in power and submissions.” (credit The Body Lock) That last line is an important one. Jessica Eye is a tried and true 34 year old fighter who at one time was considered one of the hottest prospects in the division. Then superior competition like Miesha Tate and Julianna Pena and of course Valentina Shevchenko showed up and it was clear that Eye couldn’t hang with the best of the best. Maia can, and in Maia’s most recent bout, she did. On November 21st last year, Maia did what few women in the flyweight class can ever attest to– she went the distance (all FIVE rounds) with one of the best UFC fighters ever in Valentina Shevchenko. Although Valentina won via unanimous decision and ultimately she was too much for the 32 year old Maia, the underdog proved she has the wind and determination to battle the world’s best. Saturday night against Eye will feel significantly more comfortable and I expect a confident and revenge-stricken Maia to impose her will. She’s the tougher, more agile, and more dangerous fighter.
Michel Pereira (-170), 1.7 units: Two of the UFC’s most entertaining fighters in Michel Pereira and Niko Price square off in a welterweight battle that shouldn’t disappoint. It looks like this will round up the prelims and if so, what a great ending to the free part of the card. This is a play on a more mature Pereira, at least what we’ve seen from his last two contests, against a very sneaky fighter in Price. Price owns a 3″ reach advantage but Pereira has the edge in height, athleticism and sheer size. The poignant flaw in Pereira’s game is that he tends to get too fancy, over-utilizing his unorthodox style to the point where it can exhaust the Brazilian and leave him an open target. Fortunately Niko Price has a similar style. The 31 year old American calls himself the “hybrid” for a reason– his long and unique presentation throws off a lot of fighters and if he can get inside early, he’s capable of a powerful TKO win via kick or punches. Pereira is on a two-fight win streak and in those last two victories we’ve seen a more calculated and efficient fighter, one who applies his superior striking and unusual movement in the right spots instead of forcing the issue. Pereira is on the cusp of becoming a main event name and I expect the 27 year old to force Price into mistakes early and often. At this point Pereira cannot afford another clumsy loss and I expect his learned methodical approach to wear down Price in what will most likely be a decision win. I’ll take Pereira for a 1 unit return.
Yana Kunitskaya via decision (+145), 1 unit: I like the way Yana Kunitskaya matches up against Irene Aldana. Aldana is a big bodied bantamweight at 5’9″ and looks to intimidate and stalk her opponents in the octagon. Against weaker foes that has worked often for Aldana, earning half of her 12 UFC wins by KO/TKO. Her wins against Ketlen Vieira, Vanessa Melo and Bethe Correia were impressive but in her most recent bout, she was out-classed by the superior boxing and fight IQ of Holly Holm. Aldana struggles to close distance in the ways that work to her advantage, often chasing her opponent around the cage and not cutting them off at the angles necessary to land a final blow. Kunitskaya won’t be tricked by Aldana’s attempts to overwhelm her either. The younger fighter at 31 years of age and in my opinion the more well-rounded, Kunitskaya should be able to pick apart Aldana with precision striking. She’s also the better takedown artist. If Kunitskaya can frustrate Aldana and stay on the move, she should be able to avoid the Mexican’s KO power. I like a dynamic showing from Kunitskaya to earn her enough points for a win.
Tai Tuivasa (-140), 2 units: I’ll keep this one short. Tai Tuivasa is one of my favorite plays on this card because he’s a very complete fighter. He’s big, quick, has fantastic kickboxing and striking, and he’s far more calculated than Greg Hardy. Hardy’s MMA game has improved immensely and it’s obvious he’s a fantastic athlete, but we’ve seen Hardy lose his wind and lose his control in fights before. Tuivasa, who looks to maintain his giant size and not cut too much weight to be on par with Hardy, should be able to stay out of his opponent’s range and use his fiery leg kicks and quick combinations. The less dynamic Hardy will struggle to hang with “Bam Bam” Tuivasa, who (by the way) has won 10 out of his 11 bouts via KO/TKO. Hardy is entertaining and controversial and that’s the biggest reason why he’s in this spot on the main card. Unfortunately for the former NFL standout, I think he’ll be significantly out-classed Saturday night.
Conor McGregor wins inside distance (+125), 1.5 units: If we’re going to bet on Conor, we might as well bet it inside the distance. The superstar Irishman seems to be in a different state of mind entering this trilogy main-event and arguably the biggest bout of the year for Dana White’s juggernaut company. Speaking of Dana, he had some strong words to say about his MVP: “There’s two things that Conor McGregor loves: he’s obviously incredibly competitive and loves to fight, and he loves money. There’s a ton of both at stake if he wins or loses on Saturday night. If he wins, he’s in line for a title shot, he could become the world champion again. I just think those are the things he loves and he’s not ready to walk away from either one of ’em yet.” (via Brett Okamoto) For anyone in support of McGregor, our only concerns lie with how motivated he is. Last time he faced Dustin we didn’t see the same brash, stylish, and temperamental Conor we were all used to. Conor was at ease, friendly, even complimentary of his opponent. All smiles, little gusto. But Conor is holding himself noticeably different this time around. It’s almost as if he’s forcing the issue– at the press conference he was just yelling belligerent comments, more clumsily than usual, and to Poirier’s credit he seemed rather unaffected.
But the issue for Dustin is that a motivated Conor is probably the better fighter, at least according to this guy. Dustin deserves a ton of credit for what he’s accomplished up until this point. He’s earned tremendous wealth for his family, shocked the world with big wins against McGregor, Hooker and Gaethje, and his only loss in the last four years was to arguably the greatest UFC fighter of all time in Khabib Nurmagomedov. Dustin is a considerably better striker than his younger self and we saw that clear as day in the rematch with Conor back in January. Once Dustin found his range and off-set McGregor’s balance with those leg kicks, there wasn’t much the Irishman could do and Poirier put him to sleep quickly in the second round.
Still, despite all that Poirier has achieved, this is another walk in the park for Conor. He thrives under the biggest and brightest lights and I like his decision to not bring his family. It’s his attempt to reignite the animal within and while he may be trying a little too hard to show he’s still got it, an angry, calculated, cold-hearted Conor may be too much for Dustin to handle. Poirier seems very calm, almost too calm, and I think that could hurt him in this contest. McGregor will look to be the aggressor and attack from the opening bell. If this fight goes beyond 2 rounds I favor Poirier; I just don’t think it’ll make it that far. Conor is a dynamic fighter with a lot of tools in his arsenal. We forget just how rangy and versatile his combinations can be. I’m betting that the pride of Ireland brings the heat and reminds the world once again why he’s still one of the most dangerous fighters on the planet.
