I like way too many games on Tuesday. There’s quite a bit of value on the board and today only, I’ll give them all out to you for free if you follow and direct message me on Twitter. You can sign up for all my plays here at Theoddsbreakers.com if you like what you see.
My Play today with analysis here @Theoddsbreakers is Game 2 between the White Sox and Indians at the Mistake on the Lake. Dylan Cease goes for the White Sox and Konnor Pilkington gets the ball for the Guardians.
Pilkington is due for a visit from the Regression Fairies. He is currently rocking at 4.08 ERA, but is only allowing 5.0% HR/FB which is well under league average. Line that up with his barrel rate which puts him in the bottom 5% of qualified pitchers and there’s disaster looming on the horizon. Why do I think it’s going to happen tonight? Well for one, the forecast has the winds dying down a bit for game 2 and shifting from blowing in to blowing across left to right. For two, if you haven’t heard me or any other capper say it before, the White Sox HAMMER lefties. They are currently hitting .288 vs left handed pitching and have a .798 OPS. Both of those are tops in MLB.
The Guardians strike out the least of any team in MLB and it isn’t even close. There is something to be said for plate discipline, but it won’t help them tonight against Dylan Cease. He is striking out over 13 batters per 9 IP, and while he still walks too many guys for my liking he is just dominating opposing teams right now. In his last 8 starts over 45+ innings he has allowed just 3 earned runs. (There was a clunker in there vs LAD but all 6 runs unearned) While the Guardians have a star in Jose Ramirez they are really struggling at the dish recently. In their last 20 games they are averaging just 3.4 runs per game and have been held to 3 or fewer runs 14 times.
I’m playing the White Sox F5 -165 for 1.5 Units. I don’t trust Cease to go deep due to pitch counts and I don’t trust the White Sox bullpen.
I just can’t see the Bears winning 7 games. Seven is a lot in a division with the Packers, an improving Lions team where every sharp NFL bettor I know likes them to go over in their wins, and the Vikings, a team that I’m bullish on their improvement this year under new coach Kevin O’Connell. The Bears just don’t have enough firepower on offense and without Mack, who they sent to the Chargers, this is one of the most talent-poor rosters in the NFL. Too much on Justin Fields’ shoulders.
Falcons under 4.5, 2 units
I think this team will be really, really bad, period. Defense, offense, coaching, etc, and there’s evidence that both Carolina and NO could be better than some think. Oh and then there’s Brady and Tampa Bay. UNDER. SAD.
Cowboys under 10.5, 1 unit There’s also evidence that the NFC East will be considerably better this year, especially when it comes to Philly. I’m buying the hype on the Eagles that, in the least, they won’t be an easy out as a contender to win the division, and my Giants, for what it’s worth, are showing a ton of buy-signs right now. Dallas typically stumbles late in the season, so don’t be afraid to take a mid-season under if this gets inflated.
Packers under 11.5, 1.5 units Here’s my thing about Green Bay. I realize they have an elite running game, elite defensive players, and arguably the best player in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers. But sometimes that’s not enough. The long, painstaking pattern of the Packers performing well in the regular season and then faltering in the playoffs is getting very old; for their players, coaches, fans, and staff. The Vikings should be much more competitive and the Lions might have some extra “feisty” in them this year with Dan Campbell coaching in season #2. The Packers could very likely win 11 games, but I have to anticipate an under.
Vikings over 8.5, 3 units I’ve talked about it already but yea, I like Minnesota more than usual. A new coach with great experience from LAR should reinvigorate a team that’s truly super talented in a lot of ways that matter – a QB that can get it done, a top 5 RB, a top 5 WR, and playmakers on defense. This is the year Minnesota gets very competitive, IMO.
Steelers over 7.5, 3 units Hey look, it’s the marketplace undervaluing Pittsburgh, AGAIN! We’ve seen Pittsburgh win consistently with far worse QBs than what they have this year, and I’m not so certain that Kenny Pickett is as pedestrian as people may think. Another top 5 defense, a tough-ass RB, and superior coaching = Ws. I realize how good the AFC North is, but that’s nothing new and all Tomlin does is execute winning seasons.
Jags over 6, -130 at BetOnline, to win 4 units
I’ve given this a ton of thought and now I’m pulling the trigger. Jacksonville has a VERY questionable division, the Titans will regress, the Texans aren’t scary, and the Colts are a giant mystery at this point. With one of the easier schedules in the NFL, Jacksonville has an adult in the room, new talent like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and don’t look now but Travis Etienne looks like he’s healthy and ready to take over the league. They have a young defense but they finally have an adult in the room in Douggy Pederson. We lost some initial value, but we’re still taking the Jags to go over 6.
I started out the week with a 2-0, +2.05u and now sit at 99-95-3, +1.56u on the MLB season! I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight, including my 4th multiunit play of the MLB season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Cubs F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Orioles–7:05 PM CT
While it’s been a disappointing season for the Cubbies, they return back home tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all season. Facing right-handed pitching at Wrigley Field this season, the Cubbies hold a 108 wRC+. While that’s not elite, they’ve certainly been steady enough in this role for me to trust them in tonight’s matchup.
Perhaps nobody has benefited from the Orioles pushing the walls at Camden Yards back more than Orioles SP Jordan Lyles. We’re halfway through the season, and Lyles has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark. With that said, he hasn’t found that same luck on the road. Lyles is allowing 2 HR/9 innings on the road this season, and when you consider he allowed 2.1 HR/9 on the road last season, it’s easy to see this is not a fluke. In addition, Lyles holds an ugly 5.89 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in his road starts this season.
I expect to see multiple balls leave the yard early in this game and for the Cubs to eclipse this F5 TT with relative ease. Let’s make it 3-1 on multiunit plays!
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(+100) @ Royals–7:10 PM CT
The Tigers get a lot of hate from the baseball community(rightfully so), but how come the Royals get off scott-free despite holding the 2nd worst record in the American League? As I handicap this game, I see no reason the Tigers should be ‘dogs.
Royals SP Kris Bubic has had a disastrous 2022 campaign. When you consider he’s allowed nearly 11 hits/9 while simultaneously walking 6 batters/9, it’s not hard to see why he has some of the worst numbers among starting pitchers in the league(6.84 ERA, 1.87 WHIP). I’ve seen no reason to believe tonight is the night Bubic turns things around. While the Tigers’ offense has been piss poor overall this season, they’ve surprisingly been good in this role. Against left-handed pitching on the road, the Tigers rank 11th with a 104 wRC+. That’s only above average, but they match up far better with Bubic than this line would indicate.
Tigers SP Beau Breiske has impressed me this season. While his 4.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP don’t jump out, Brieske has shined in some of his toughest road starts. He recorded quality starts in both Houston and New York(Yankees), and in his last start, he twirled 6.1 shutout innings in Chicago(White Sox), only allowing 3 baserunners. This is quite frankly a dream matchup for Breiske, as the Royals rank just 28th in wRC+ vs righties in their home ballpark this season. Additionally, the Royals just lost their iron man Whit Merrifield, making an already weak lineup even weaker.
There is also a MASSIVE bullpen discrepancy in this matchup. The Royals rank dead last in MLB with a 1.51 bullpen WHIP. On the other hand, Detroit’s bullpen has been strong all season, entering tonight with the 8th best bullpen WHIP in the league.
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+100) vs Diamondbacks–8:45 PM CT
The Giants have underperformed all season long, but this is a total and utter mismatch. If they can’t win comfortably in this matchup, the Giants really are doomed.
Giants SP Logan Webb was born to pitch at Oracle Park. Last season, the young righty held some of the best home numbers in baseball(1.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP). This season, Webb has yet to allow a HR in his home ballpark and still holds a sub-3.00 ERA in this role. The Diamondbacks have taken advantage of some weak arms over the past couple of weeks, but this is a team that relies heavily on the deep ball to produce runs. Not only does Webb limit homers at an elite rate, but he also produces ground balls at one of the highest rates in the league. I like how Webb matches up with this Arizona lineup.
Why is Diamondbacks SP Dallas Keuchel still in the league? In 11 starts this season, all Keuchel has done is pitch to a 7.63 ERA and 1.94 WHIP. With his H/9 sitting at 12.75, Keuchel is truly one of the most hittable arms in all of baseball. The Giants were a team that mashed righties in their home ballpark last season, but this year, they’ve actually been more dependable against lefties at Oracle Park. Gabe Kapler has a plethora of platoon righties that should match up well with the lowly Keuchel tonight.
This game should be over before it starts. I thought getting an even price on this was a bargain to say the least.
Tuesday card has our 100% Exclusive WNBA Back from the Break Systems and our 100% Interleague Game of the Month in MLB Action. Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play for Tuesday is on Washington at 7;05 eastern. The Nats have won 8 of 9 here in the series over Seattle and we note that road dogs off 3 straight home wins like the Mariners are 2-14 in Non Division games if they scored 6 or more runs last out and the opponent is off a road dog loss and the total tonight is 7 or more. Seattle has won 7 straight but that should end here tonight. They have lost 5 of 7 on the road with C. Flexen. Washington has won 7 of 9 at home vs Right handers Vs A.L. Teams and J. Gray has allowed 2 or less earned runs in 6 of his last 7. Look for the Nationals to get this one. On Tuesday we have our WNBA Top RATED Back from the Break Power System Plays headlining along with a powerful MLB Card with 3 plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we are ranked #1 on several MLB Leaderboards this year. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Washington. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Spencer Strider shows a lot of potential at 23 (0.97 WHIP, 2.60 ERA, 98.2 mph fastball), so it’s easy for the Braves to get excited about their new stud and it’s easier to see why Atlanta is favored today, especially after yesterday’s loss. But not so fast, my friends. David Peterson is what we call a smart pitcher. He’s not overly talented or commanding, but all he does is win and keep his team in games. He doesn’t allow many homers and he offers a bevy of different pitches. The Mets are overdue for positive regression on offense, too. In the bottom third of MLB over the last 30 days, NYM still ranks top 5 in overall offense, including 3rd in OBP and K %. I like New York to put pressure on the young gun and keep their momentum going tonight.
NFL Future:
Jags over 6, -130 at BetOnline, to win 4 units
I’ve given this a ton of thought and now I’m pulling the trigger. Jacksonville has a VERY questionable division, the Titans will regress, the Texans aren’t scary, and the Colts are a giant mystery at this point. With one of the easier schedules in the NFL, Jacksonville has an adult in the room, new talent like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and don’t look now but Travis Etienne looks like he’s healthy and ready to take over the league. They have a young defense but they finally have an adult in the room in Douggy Pederson. We lost some initial value, but we’re still taking the Jags to go over 6.
Won’t have time to send out picks tomorrow morning so I may have more around lunch time – for now, these are the plays I like tomorrow AND the CFL lines I like heading into Week 6 of Canadian pigskin.
MLB Picks, 7.12:
Lean, Guardians (game 1)
Lean, Rays
Padres ML (-126), to win 1 unit
I’ll take Clevinger vs. Gomber all day and since I expect Colorado to win tonight, this should be a good redemption game for a San Diego team that needs to start heating up. Redemption or not, the Rockies should be out-classed early.
CFL Picks, Week 6:
Montreal vs. Edmonton (+9), Thursday
Under 50.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Edmonton +9 (-105), to win 1 unit
Here’s the thing – not only is Edmonton the worst team in CFL, by far apparently, and Montreal isn’t far behind. The Alhouettes do have one thing going for them, however, and that’s their defense. Montreal is top 3 on defense in two categories that really matter, opponent net offense and yards per play. The pedestrian Edmonton offense shouldn’t be able to do much, but they’re also terribly desperate. They haven’t won a single game so far this season so I expect them to try as hard as humanly possible, but imagining a ton of points seems rather far-fetched. A closer game than people think, I like the under and the underdog.
Calgary vs. Winnipeg (-3), Friday
Total over 48.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Two of the most explosive offenses in CFL, Winnipeg is the favorite to win it all for good reason and a lot of that is because of their defense. Calgary would love to challenge that Friday. The Blue Bombers are capable of sticking with any team and it’s likely that the Stampeders will show up big time on the ground. Calgary’s Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best rushers in Canada and if the away team can punch Winnipeg in the mouth early and open up the pass, points won’t be limited in this contest. Like the over.
WNBA Pick:
Liberty +7 (-110), to win 1 unit
The WNBA is off its all star break and the Liberty need to ascend to get into the playoffs. The Aces are the league’s best team but like Kate Constable said on the show today, that’s too many points to give a hungry home team heading into the 2nd half of the season. We’ll take the points and I expect we’ll get the best line here.
Hi All! Kate Constable joins Laying the Points to discuss her approaches and insights on WNBA betting. Chris and Kate also discuss a few teams heading into next year’s NBA season and talk betting techniques and perspectives, in general. Check out this great show!
After a 3-0 Thursday, I was disappointed with not being able to follow that up with a profitable weekend. Overall, my MLB record sits at 97-95-3, -0.49u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to start the week off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(+105) @ Guardians–6:10 PM CT
The White Sox struggled mightily vs right-handed pitching over the first month-and-a-half of the season, but they have steadily started to figure righties out over the course of the summer. Since June 1st, the Sox hold an impressive 113 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road. Today, they’ll not only get a favorable matchup, but they’ll also benefit from some favorable conditions.
Guardians SP Cal Quantrill has pitched above his capabilities over the last 2 years. His FIP was over a full run higher than his ERA last season(left 80% of runners stranded), and we’ve seen a similar pattern this season. The one thing I know in this matchup is that they White Sox are going to have their opportunities because Quantrill allows exactly 1 hit per inning. However, despite striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, Quantrill is a fly ball pitcher(1.11 GB/FB rate). We’ve consistently seen him escape trouble by the skin of his teeth, but on a night where the wind is going to be blowing out upwards of 12 mph, I think some of those long outs are going to turn into homers for the Sox lineup.
I liked what I saw from Chicago’s lineup this weekend matching up with an underrated Detroit pitching staff. This lineup has gotten healthier in recent weeks and, as I mentioned, has improved in this role throughout the course of the season. Getting a slight return at +105, I feel comfortable isolating the Sox offense early in this game.
While I also lean towards the White Sox F5 ML, Lance Lynn has had his struggles with the home run ball in the past. Additionally, his velocity is down almost 2 mph this season; I’m going to need to see more from him before I want to back him.
*MLB(1u): Mets/Braves F5 UNDER 3.5(-120)–6:20 PM CT
Considering the quality of this pitching matchup, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that I want a piece of this F5 Under tonight.
Braves SP Max Fried has blossomed into an extremely consistent arm for the Braves. The lefty holds a 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP entering tonight and has allowed 1 ER or less in over half of his starts this season. While I like how the Mets match up vs right-handed pitching, they have struggled against lefties away from Citi Field this season(94 wRC+). The Mets also struggled at the plate vs the Marlins’ top 2 starters this weekend, and things won’t get any easier tonight.
Mets SP Max Scherzer is a freak of nature; in his first start back from the IL, Scherzer allowed just 2 baserunners and struck out 11 Reds in 6 innings. Scherzer holds a 0.88 WHIP on the season, but a 0.90 WHIP on the road is perhaps even more impressive. The Braves are a good lineup without a doubt, but I think they are slightly overvalued. They hold a 111 wRC+ vs righties at home; while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s also not so dominant to suggest that they can’t be held down by an elite pitcher. The Braves have faced some truly horrific arms as of late by nature of playing the Nationals this weekend; this is a MAJOR step up in competition. Scherzer has had a fair amount of success vs Atlanta in the past, and I’m going to expect that to continue tonight.
New Zealand basketball disappoints, but a nice 3-0 day in MLB. I don’t love the card today at all really, but we found a few plays with good value. We’re going to do our best to get early looks/lines in CFL this week – stay tuned and happy new week, good people
MLB Picks:
Tigers/Royals Game 1, Tigers ML (+115), to win 1.15 units
Two of the AL Central’s last placed teams may seem equally terrible but lately the Tigers are showing some nice fight, especially on offense. Though they lost their last 2, they won 6 straight games prior. In those 6 games, they scored a whopping 37 runs. For whatever reason, Michael Pineda tends to show up against tougher competition but he has frequent duds when he should win – like he did recently against KC back on July 1. Brad Keller has been more consistent, but this is a nice revenge spot for Pineda against a very beatable team in KC. I trust their offense and momentum.
Braves/Mets under 7 (-110), to win 1 unit
Scherzer looks as elite as ever and two of the best throwers will duel it out today in Atlanta. Against two big hitting teams it’s not easy taking an under, but we’re seeing lower scoring across MLB when there are 2 aces on the mound. This is one of those situations. The Braves’ bats have been hot and NYM is coming off a scoreless game, so that’s scary, but I can’t not trust these two studs.
Rockies (+132), to win 1.32 units
Jose Urena starts his first game for Colorado and why wouldn’t the ilme-high squad be excited for their new addition? Urena has a bad xERA (6.19), which may mean some worse marks are coming, but his 96 mph fastball should mean more Ks and less players walked – those figures are way too disparate. Either way, Sean Manaea hasn’t been too stellar this season and now he’s traveling to the Rockies for the first time in 2022. Colorado has owned the Padres at home (3-0) so even if Urena sees some regression tonight, it’s very possible that Colorado’s bats still save the home team.
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NFC North
Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag
Green Bay Packers -175, Minnesota Vikings +225, Detroit Lions, +1000, Chicago Bears
+1400
With the NFC North’s Division disparities I am only focusing on Green Bay and Minnesota this week. Lions and Bears are fighting for 3rd and 4th… Let’s focus on the legit money makers for the division.
Green Bay Packers -170:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing in: Sammy Watkins WR, Jarran Reed DT. Bringing Back: De’vondre Campbell LB, Rasul Douglas CB, Robert Tonyan TE
Strength of Schedule: 22nd hardest per CBSsports
Key takeaways:
Need for true Number 1 receiver
Too much on Rodgers shoulders
Learning curve for young receivers may take time
-170 is a fade with Vikings upside
It is going to be a very interesting year for the Packers. Losing arguably the best receiver in the league (Davante Adams) to the Raiders, has left their receiving corps mediocre at best. For a lot of teams this type of loss would be detrimental to an organization. However, when you have the back-to-back league MVP as your QB it doesn’t sting….as much. Rodgers will still be able to elevate the talent around him and be successful. A big question to be answered is 1. Will it be sustainable and 2. Are the packers going to still bring in another Free Agent WR?.
We know their defense can get up in big moments especially with their environment at home, their running game is exceptional with one-two punch of Jones and Dillon, but the receiving game has taken a step back. It is a passing league and top guys such as Watkins, Cobb, and Lazard have always been great complimentary players in their own right. Packers are hoping to see strides be made sooner than later with drafted rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. It will take time to build that relationship with Rodgers and also be able to handle the pressure that comes with it. Packers will be competitive, Rodgers will be great, but I say fade the Packers long-term this season.
Projected Record: 10-7
Minnesota Vikings +225:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing in: Jesse Davis G, Za’Darius Smith OLB, Nate Hairston CB, Austin Schlottmann G, Jordan Hicks LB, John Mundt TE, Harrison Phillips DT, Chandon Sullivan CB. Bringing Back: Patrick Peterson CB
Strength of Schedule: 20th hardest per CBSsports
Key takeaways:
New Coaching Hire=immediate success
Cousins has to have best season of career to win
Defense will be better
+225 is great value long term
It is a new season in Minnesota and hopefully a different result. FINALLY Mike Zimmer got the boot and the Vikings bring in Kevin O’Connell (previously OC for Rams) to “right the (long)ship”. Last season we saw the Vikings go 8-9 with an offense that constantly struggled and never reached it’s full potential correlated to the talent on paper. A coaching change was needed, and what better than the OC who just won a Super Bowl utilizing some of the best offensive talent in the league. Time will tell if Kevin O’Connell was the missing piece to jump start this sputtering offense, but I love the direction/potential.
Despite the primetime story lines Cousins has been rather solid and an above average QB in the league during his time in Minnesota (stat wise). He has a lot of upside but his career records do not indicate that what-so-ever. Cousins has only eclipsed double digit wins one time in his entire career going 10-6. A lot of close games last year that could have swung the other way came down to coaching inefficiencies and high scoring shootouts. Defensively the Vikings loaded up during free agency getting key players to impact the starting line up now, especially at linebacker and in their secondary.
The changes the Vikings have made this offseason I think have ultimately made them a better team. For them to win this division they have to get to at minimum 11 wins and that is something Cousins has never done in his career. I am a believer in the talent in this team and what Cousins is capable of. The value is there for the Vikings to make a push here and for the Packers to take a step back this season.
