Buying low is the way to go, and you can see that this bamtam weight fight line tells a story when Morozov is 1-2 in the UFC as a 60% favorite against Paiva who is 3-3. Sergey Morozov is a 33 year old Russian that knows how to win fights both standing on his feet and on the mat. He has eight wins by KO, three submissions and six decisions. Sergey’s three UFC fights were certainly no cakewalk with a loss vs Umar Nurmagomedov who is a -1000 favorite tonight (cousins with Khabib). A win vs a tier two Khalid Taha, and then a loss back in February by a very seasoned tier 1 fighter in Douglas Silva De Andrade who is 28-4. Raulian Paiva is a 26 year old contender who is two inches taller than Sergey with a very nice fight record at 21-4. Raulian is quick on his feet and likes to stick and move. His wins are 4 by KO, 3 by submission, and 14 decisions. Two of his three UFC wins were to tier 3/4 fighters and his one tier two win vs Kyler Phillips by decision was a total farce as what most fight fans would say being that the judges got it completely wrong. This is why there is value in this fight and Sergey isn’t a larger favorite. Paiva has speed and a great volume of punches and kicks, but there really isn’t much power behind them being that he goes to decision so often. Sergey Morozov is the much more accurate striker landing 58% of them compared to Raulian’s 45% and most of Sergey’s wins are by knockout. Morozov has a massive take down advantage at 3.28 per 15 minutes to .58 for Raulian so that will help him if the going gets tough. Three out of four of Raulian’s losses came inside the distance and his last fight vs Sean O’Malley got him knocked out in the first. Raulian has been living off winning by the cards for a long time now, but I think that time will come to an end tonight. Even if this fight doesn’t get finished inside the distance, I think that Morozov gets the job done accumulating ground and pound damage and will show that he is the stronger fighter and the price says so.
Morozov -150 – 2 stars
Bonus Play:
Durden to win ITD +300 – .5 stars JP Buys to win ITD +200 – .5 stars – These two fighters have only went to the cards 6 times out of 29 fights. I think this one does not go the distance and you can get +125 betting it like this.
The Stanley Cup will be in the building tonight as Colorado looks to close out the back to back champs and capture their first title since 2001. Tampa Bay will hope to stay alive and force a Game 6 back on home ice. Teams with a 3-1 lead in a best-of-seven series have an all time record of 298-31 including a 35-1 mark in the finals.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 3-1)
Side Line Movement (COL: -190/ TBL: +160)
The home team has been the favorites in every game this series. However, tonight is the largest that Colorado has been favorited in a single game against Tampa Bay. This includes the regular season when they went off at -110 and -115 in their two matchups. The line opened at -160 and has since shot up to where it currently is.
There’s two ways of looking at this tonight. Either you think that based off the line movement, Colorado will definitely win tonight. Or, you believe that Tampa Bay moneyline has some value as they’ve never been offered at this price before.
Total Line Movement (6.0: -105/-115)
The total has been set at 6.0 for every game this series and that trend continues tonight. In Games 1 and 2, the total was juiced to the over. However, since Game 3 the under has been slightly juiced in every game since.
Game 5 Breakdown
The Avalanche have had more expected goals than Tampa Bay in every game this series. In the lone game the Lightning won, Andrei Vasilevskiy had a +4.68 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Tampa Bay have shown glimpses of hope, they’ve been outplayed by the Avalanche in every game this series. Despite Tampa Bay making their third consecutive Stanley Cup, they really struggle matching up with Colorado.
Going into Game 5, we find the Lightning with their backs against the wall. A scenario that they’ve been in before, and somehow seem to always come out on top. For a variety of reasons, this series seems different. It looks as though the past few years of playoff hockey have caught up with this veteran squad. By no means am I saying that they can’t or won’t win Game 5. Based off history there’s no reason to doubt this team. They have a core that has gone through this before and has ten times the playoff experience as the Avalanche. In the last two games, they’ve only allowed two 5-on-5 goals. If they can limit Colorado’s Power Play, which was been deadly in this series, the have a shot.
However, when we look at the two teams, the Bolts have a lot of their key guys hurt. Nikita Kucherov struggled last game after a collision with Toews in Game 3. Brayden Point has yet to play since Game 2 against the Avalanche. Erik Cernak and Anthony Cirelli are also day-to-day battling injuries.
Colorado on the other hand, got Nazem Kadri back in Game 4 who was the eventual difference maker scoring the winning goal in OT. Andrei Burakovsky is their only other player who’s hurt. He’s not likely to return to the lineup for the rest of the Finals but, Colorado has shown they can alter lines and plug in anyone to fit their game plan.
In terms of how I think Game 5 is going to go it’s tough to say. I had a pretty good read on Game 4 but, this one much more difficult. We’ve seen Colorado get beaten at home twice this post season. In terms of stats they perform much better when looking at home/ away splits. Tampa Bay on the other hand has struggled on the road this season, mainly due to Vasilevskiy’s performance. If you look at his home/ away splits in the post season, he’s much worse on the road. To counter that, he’s been incredible in elimination games throughout the past few playoffs.
I usually like to take the best number on the board but, I don’t see Colorado losing this game. They cannot afford to lose this game and give Tampa Bay and sense of hope. Colorado is going to come out firing in the first and try to get to Vasilevskiy early. I also see Tampa Bay forcing Colorado to score tonight. It shouldn’t be a low scoring game like we saw on Wednesday. Kuemper’s coming off the best game of this series and looking at trends, he’s allowed three or more goals after giving up 2 or less in the game prior. Most people aren’t giving Tampa Bay a shot in this game but I don’t hate them. While they’ve been outplayed, their one of those teams that just finds a way to win.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg), A. Cirelli (QUES- Arm), E. Cernak (QUES- Leg)
COL Injuries: A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-110/-120)
Game 1 Team Total: 3 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
Game 4 Team Total: 2 (OT)
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in two out of the four games this series. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.36 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 2.56 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-240/+195)
Game 1 Team Total: 4 (OT)
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
Game 4 Team Total: 3 (OT)
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in three out of the four games this series. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 4.44 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.27 goals against per game.
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last fifteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Gabriel Landeskog 0.5 Points (-175/+140)
Game 1 Points: 2 (1 Goal & 1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Goals)
Game 4 Points: 0
Gabriel Landeskog has gone over this total in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point four times.
Nathan MacKinnon 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 3 Points: 0
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Goal)
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 4 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. He’s currently on an eight game point streak. In his last five home games, he has recorded at least one point in each game.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165/+130)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Game 3 SOG: 4
Game 4 SOG: 2
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five away games, he has gone over this number four times.
Valeri Nichushkin 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160/+125)
Game 1 SOG: 6
Game 2 SOG: 5
Game 3 SOG: 1
Game 4 SOG: 4
Valeri Nichushkin has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number four times.
Cale Makar 2.5 Shots on Goal (-200/+155)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 4
Game 3 SOG: 5
Game 4 SOG: 5
Cale Makar has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number two times.
Goalie Prop Breakdown
Andrei Vasilevskiy 33.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 34 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
Game 4 Saves: 34 (OT)
In Vasilevskiy’s last four games this series, he has recorded more than 33.5 saves three times. On the road this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 31.55 shots against. At home this post season, the Avalanche average 41.11 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 25.5 Saves (-115/-110)
Game 1 Saves: 20 (OT)
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
Game 4 Saves: 37 (OT)
In Kuemper’s four games this series, he has gone under this number in three of them. At home this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 26.44 shots against. On the road this post season, the Bolts average 28.91 shots on goal for. This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games, to now 25.5 in Games 4 and 5.
Picks
[1u] Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – Caesars
Despite the lack of points in this series, MacKinnon has made his offensive presence known. He’s surpassed 4.5 shots on goal in six of his last seven playoff games. Over the course of the playoffs, he’s averaging 5.77 shots on goal per game. At home, that number jumps up to 6.0 sog/game.
[0.50u] Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total over 2.5 (-110) – DraftKings
Last game we saw Darcy Kuemper have his best game of the series with a +1.49 GSAx. He rebounded well after getting pulled in the game prior. If we look at numbers, they Lightning average below this number on the road. You’re probably asking yourself if the stats don’t correlate to the pick why do you like it? We’ll lets look at Tampa Bay’s current scenario. They’re in an elimination game on the road that no one thinks they can win. Colorado’s goalie, who has been the opposite of consistent this post season, is coming off his best game. I’m not sure Tampa Bay wins this game but, they won’t go down without a fight. We saw this in their first series against Toronto and I expect a similar effort tonight.
Leans
Colorado/ Tampa Bay Over 6.0 (+102) – Barstool
Ondrej Palat over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-165) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Coming off a 1-1, +0.31u Thursday, I find myself +12.01u over the last 46 days. I’m rolling with 3 plays tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Dodgers TT OVER 4.5(-115) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
After beginning the month by getting swept at home by the Pirates, the Dodgers’ offense remained in shaky form for the next few weeks. However, you’re not going to keep a lineup with that much depth and talent down for too long. Not surprisingly, the Dodgers swept the Reds in Cincinnati, and they did so by putting up 28 runs in the 3 game set. That is even more impressive considering they faced some talented arms in Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Hunter Greene. Tonight, the Dodgers find themselves in position to take advantage of another young righty. Braves SP Ian Anderson had a very solid rookie season a year ago, but he has really taken a step back here in 2022. Through 13 starts, the righty holds an ugly 1.39 WHIP and is walking over 4 batters per 9 innings. In addition, Anderson has allowed 1.5 HR/9 at Truist Park this season. While the Braves have a top 10 bullpen in baseball, that unit is not fresh after needing their back-end arms each of the past 4 days in their tightly-contested series against the Giants. While availability might not be an issue tonight, this unit is not in peak form entering perhaps their toughest matchup of the season. I think the Dodgers’ eruption in Cincinnati this week is a sign of what’s to come as we head towards the All Star Break. I’ll trust the Dodgers to keep the bats hot tonight.
*MLB(1u): Nationals TT UNDER 3.5(+100) @ Rangers–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning has had his fair share of struggles on the road, but he’s adjusted nicely to pitching at Globe Life Field. Dunning held an impressive 3.09 ERA at home last year and has followed that up with a 3.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year. Dunning is a heavy-sinker arm that produces a ton of ground balls; while the Nationals have a high contact rate, they rank just 25th in home runs and 21st in runs this season. While their road numbers this year might look promising, a few outlier performances in hitter-friendly ballparks pad those numbers quite a bit. The Nats were shutout in Baltimore on Wednesday and now enter an even tougher hitting environment tonight. While I’ve been skeptical of the Rangers bullpen this year, they actually rank 12th in bullpen WHIP, better than the Red Sox, Mets, and Cardinals. I also expect Dunning to go pretty deep in this game, so we’ll likely avoid having to trust any of the Rangers’ lesser arms in this one. I can understand the oddsmakers not wanting to go out on a limb with Dunning, but you can make a pretty good argument that this number should be 2.5. When you factor in that we’re getting 1:1 odds, this was too good for me to pass up.
*MLB(1u): Tigers/Diamondbacks F5 UNDER 4.5(-110)–8:40 PM CT
Diamondbacks SP Merrill Kelly has morphed into a pretty reliable arm in the Arizona rotation. He holds a sub-3.50 ERA on the season and is allowing just 0.5 HR/9. Kelly’s always been steady in his home ballpark, and he’ll get the easiest matchup you could hope for tonight. The Tigers rank dead last in OPS vs righties on the road(.534 OPS) and have had a historically bad season at the plate. Despite getting some favorable matchups in hitter-friendly Fenway Park earlier this week, the Tigers racked up just 8 runs in that 3 game set. While the offense has made it impossible for Detroit to hold a good record, the pitching has been the lone bright spot for the Tigers this year. Tigers SP Rony Garcia has pitched much better than his 4.97 ERA would indicate; he holds an impressive 1.05 WHIP on the season and has delivered in his toughest matchups this season(5 IP, 2 ER at Yankee Stadium). The D-Backs can have their moments offensively, but they rank just 26th in OPS at home vs righties and are not in good current form. Considering each of these SP’s have had plenty of success this year combined with the inadequacies of each offense, I think this number should be at 4. We’ll hope to take advantage tonight.
The Diamonds keep on treating us well and I can’t complain! The Yankees win was obviously a little floozy but, from an alternative perspective, their lineup is SO dangerous that it’s not all that unexpected, either. We’re nearing the .500 mark (finally) in MLB Picks and our units are getting closer to the positive, too. Still got plenty of room to make up for, though.
MLB Picks:
Astros ML (+108), to win 1.08 units
Houston proved they likely won’t get swept in this series and I’m sure they can’t wait to overcome the Yankees’ home winning streak. Verlander gives them their best shot and they’re looking for vengeance tonight – gotta take the very capable road dog.
White Sox First 5 -1 (+110), to win 1.10 units
The White Sox couldn’t get a point in yesterday’s contest at home and credit to Baltimore’s pitching – they’re winning more games by their arms than bats and showing real improvements this season. Kopech is turning into another ace for Chicago and Bradish has been, well, hellish so far this season. His xERA (6.30) doesn’t sway too far from his horrendous ERA (7.38) which tells us everything we need to know about how hittable he truly is. White Sox take this early by margin for plus money = good value.
Blue Jays (-135), to win 1 unit
Alek Manoah has proven his value time and time again and the only reason his ERA shrunk a bit in June (and it’s still at 2.52 this month) is because of NYY, something many major-league pitchers can relate to these days. Toronto’s bats have been considerably more consistent than the home-team Brewers and Houser’s 4.31 xERA isn’t terrible but he projects to continuously allow big slugs throughout the season. Taking Toronto and eating the juice on this one.
The Rays, Rangers, and Marlins check out as good parlay legs today. I won’t be playing it; been burned too often by parlays already this season, but it’s a lean for me and I wouldn’t blame ya!
NHL Picks:
Avalanche -1.5 (+145), 1 unit
Colorado returns home after taking Tampa’s soul in south Florida on Wednesday night and obviously, this sets up for a big-time finish for a favorite that only performs even better on their own friendly ice. If the first two games of this series were any indication of how confident and explosive Colorado is at home, the value is on the Avalanche to close this series out with authority.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
Lean, AS Monaco ML (+120) on 6/25
They’re due, and these two teams tend to go back and forth. Value on the ML dog but I’m going to pull back and get more research done, for now.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Coming off a 1-1 Wednesday, I sit at +1.01u on the week and +11.7u over the last 45 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Brewers F5 OVER 5(-110)–1:10 PM CT
While each of these offenses can have their struggles, both will be facing very vulnerable arms this afternoon. Brewers SP Jason Alexander has made 4 big league starts in his rookie season, and he’s been anything but impressive. Alexander holds an atrocious WHIP at 1.70 and has recorded just 8 strikeouts in 22.1 IP. While I like the Cardinals’ lineup better against lefties, they are still more than capable of beating up on a vulnerable righty arms; we saw this just a few days ago when they faced Chi Chi Gonzalez. Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson somehow holds an ERA at 3.31, but that does not tell the full story. If Hudson’s 1.29 WHIP isn’t proof that a sub-4.00 ERA is not sustainable, consider that the righty is striking out just 5 batters per 9 innings while walking over 4 per 9 innings. As a kicker, Hudson has been far worse on the road this year, especially in the walks department. The Brewers offense has feasted on these type of righties all season long and just tagged Adam Wainwright for 4 runs last night. I really don’t like the makeup of either one of these starters, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage this afternoon.
*MLB(0.69u): Padres -1.5(+145) vs Phillies–8:40 PM CT
Padres SP Joe Musgrove is currently 2nd in NL Cy Young odds, and for good reason; the righty has accumulated a 1.59 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this year. Since joining the Padres, Musgrove has been masterful in Petco Park, and he’ll get a more favorable matchup than you might think tonight. While the Phillies went on an absolute tear in recent weeks, they have fallen back down to earth here over the past few days. They got swept earlier this week against the lowly Rangers, have lost 3 straight games in total, and have scored just 7 runs across their last 4 games. Petco Park is another tough hitting environment, and this seems to be a group that stays mired in the ups-and-downs of the MLB season. The Padres have been carried by their pitching for virtually this whole season, but the offense showed promise in their sweep of the D-Backs this week. Looking at yesterday, the Friars racked up 16 hits and 10 runs, chasing lefty Madison Bumgarner after just 4 innings. They’ll face another vulnerable lefty in Ranger Suarez today. Suarez’s 2021 seems to have been just a fluke; in 13 starts this season, the lefty holds a 4.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Specifically, Suarez has begun to struggle with his command, walking 4 batters per 9 innings this year and 7 batters across his last 2 starts. Even with Manny Machado not in the lineup, I like what I’ve seen the Padres bats this week. What ultimately gets me on this run-line is the massive bullpen discrepancy; the Padres rank T-2nd in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Phillies rank 28th in that same category. Considering the caliber of arms San Diego will run out there tonight, +145 seems too good to pass up. It will remain a sprinkle because runs don’t flow too easily from the Padres offense, but I do think San Diego wins this game comfortably.
Thursday card led by the 19-0 MLB Non Divisional Total of the Year and the Canadian Football League Game of the Week. WNBA Comp Play below.
The WNBA Comp play is on the Under in the Indiana at Dallas game at 8:00 eastern. The games fit a totals system that has cashed 8 straight times to the under for Home favorites like Dallas that are off a road favored loss and are taking on a team off a home dog win. These games have averaged 150 points since 2013. Indiana has gone under 4 of 4 as a road dog, 7 of 9 with 3+ rest and 19 of 26 vs a team under .500. Dallas has gone under 5 of 6 vs a losing team and 11 of 14 vs East conference opponents. In the series 8 of the last 9 have stayed under. Look for this game to stay Under. On Thursday the 19-0 Non divisional Total of the Year headlines along with our Canadian Football League Game of the week with 2 powerful systems. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the WNBA Play. Play the Under in the Indians vs Dallas game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Nice day yesterday on the bases and a 1-0 outing in the NHL. Let’s see if we can snag that Chinese Taipei b-ball win this morning (not looking great, eye roll) and let’s have another winning day. Happy Thirsty Thurzzz!
MLB Picks:
Rockies/Marlins NRFI (-120), to win 1 unit
NRFI = No Run in First Inning, for those who don’t know. The Rockies are pedestrian on the road because they don’t have the altitude of Denver to assist their lineup. Miami’s Braxton Garrett had a rough start to his season but seems to be settling into his command. Why not take an early NRFI in a game that feels like it’ll be sleepy? It’s unlikely the Marlins’ offense, which is very average, will continue hitting at the rhythm they are, even with Colorado’s sub-average pitching.
Dodgers -2.5 (+118), to win 1.18 units
It feels very square, again, but I think you know why we’re playing on a LAD alt line here. Kershaw is on the mound, Greene is ready and willing to sacrifice huge hits from a loaded LAD lineup (even without Betts), and again the Reds’ offense should struggle big-time to keep up. All LA for me.
Guardians/Twins over 10.5 (+110), to win 1.1 units
I’m taking another alternate line here because it’s just too good (or too bad, should I say) of a pitching matchup with two offenses that are rolling right now. Nothing about Plesac (4.53 xFIP) or Smeltzer (5.04 xFIP) scares me away from this wager.
Yankees (-132), to win 1.5 units
Should we just take the Yankees every time they’re under a -150 favorite? Probably. NYY is on a 14-game home winning streak, the Astros suffer in hostile environments on the road, and New York is 16-7 against lefties this season. Just taking it, not overthinking.
Foreign Basketball:
Greece A1
Ermis Agias (Larisa) +5, 1 unit
Their opponent has owned them as of late but previous meetings were a different story. This is too many points to give the away team, in this case, especially since it’s a battle for seeding in this league.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to talk some AFC North and South with a big UFC event coming up this weekend! First, Kiev talks football with the AFC North and South Conferences and the big changes that they went through. Which players are leaving? Which players are coming in? Any coaching changes? How are the Vegas season win totals and futures lining up with Kiev’s numbers? We have a few plays! Then, Kiev talks about some UFC Vegas 57 previewing some big fights with some FREE PLAYS. Should you have any questions, please reach out to us @TheOddsBreakers on twitter!
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The Lightning came out firing in Game 3 winning 6-2. Colorado will look to win Game 4 and have the opportunity to close it out on home ice. Tampa Bay has been great at home ice this post season so will see if that trend continues tonight.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 2-1)
Side Line Movement (COL: -110/ TBL: -110)
The Colorado Avalanche closed as home favorites in the first two games. In Game 3, that trend continued as the Lightning were favored. That was the first time that the Avalanche were underdogs in a game this post season. However, if we look at the line movement for that game, all of the action was placed on Tampa closer to puck drop moving that line from -110 to -120. For Game 4, it’s currently listed as a pick ’em but, I think we could see a similar scenario happen again where Tampa becomes the late favorite. However, the Avalanche have not lost back to back games in the playoffs so that may also play a role in the late line movement.
Total Line Movement (6.0: -105/-115)
The total for the first three games was set at 6 and it has gone over in every game. For Game 4, the total hasn’t moved at all. In Games 1 and 2 the total was juiced to the over but, in Game 3 that reversed. Moving onto Game 4, the total is again slightly juiced to the under.0.5
Game 4 Breakdown
In Game 3, the Lightning were finally able to get pressure on Colorado early and create high danger scoring chances. The Avalanche won the expected goal differential with 6.68 compared to Tampa Bay’s 4.33. As we expected in the majority of games this series, the difference was goaltending. Vasilevskiy played his best game of the series finishing with a +4.68 GSAx. Kuemper was pulled after the second with a -1.96 GSAx, so Francouz finished the game stopping 11 of 12 shots.
We turn to Game 4, where the Lightning are going try and repeat that performance they had last game. As we’ve seen in the past two seasons, they rely on Vasilevskiy so this game will again be up to him. He continues to stand up to any challenge, so there’s very little reason to doubt him.
To play devils advocate here, Tampa Bay hasn’t faced an offense as potent as Colorado’s in the past three post seasons. Despite them losing Game 3, they continued to drive scoring chances.
In Game 4, I don’t expect much to change as we’ve seen how these teams matchup. One concern for Tampa Bay is the status of Nikita Kucherov. He leads the team this post season with 26 points in 20 games. In Game 3, he left the game in the third period after a collision with Devon Toews. As of now, Jon Cooper has said he’s expected to play but, we’ll see come game time.
On the other side of the ice, Colorado is hoping to get back Nazem Kadri. He was sidelined in the Western Conference Finals and has been steadily progressing over the past week. Kadri has averaged over a point per game in the playoffs and would be a huge addition to Colorado’s lineup.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg), N. Kucherov (PROB – Lower Body)
COL Injuries: N. Kadri (PROB- Thumb), A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-165/+135)
Game 1 Team Total: 3
Game 2 Team Total: 0
Game 3 Team Total: 6
The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone over this number in two out of the three games this series. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.89 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 3.25 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-175/+140)
Game 1 Team Total: 4
Game 2 Team Total: 7
Game 3 Team Total: 2
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in two out of the three games this series. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 4.75 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.00 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Nikita Kucherov 0.5 Points (-250/+190)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Nikita Kucherov has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In Game’s 1 and 2, the total was set at 0.5 and shifted to 1.5 in Game 3. Following Game 3, when he recorded 2 points, the line was shifted back to 0.5. Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last four home games.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Game 3 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. He’s currently on a seven game point streak. In his last five road games, he has gone over this number four times.
Nathan MacKinnon 0.5 Points (-240/+185)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 3 Points: 0
Nathan MacKinnon has gone over this total in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has only gone over this twice.
Alex Killorn 0.5 Points (+130/-165)
Game 1 Points: 0
Game 2 Points: 0
Game 3 Points: 0
Alex Killorn has yet to record a single point in his last fourteen games. His last point was in Game 6 of their first series against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165/+130)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Game 3 SOG: 3
Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number four times. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.
Anthony Cirelli 1.5 Shots on Goal (-145/+115)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 1
Game 3 SOG: 2
Anthony Cirelli has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five home games, he has gone over this number in each game.
Ross Colton 1.5 Shots on Goal (-120/-105)
Game 1 SOG: 0
Game 2 SOG: 1
Game 3 SOG: 1
Ross Colton has recorded under 1.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games. He’s also gone under this number in each of his last five home games.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 32.5 Saves (-125/+100)
Game 1 Saves: 34
Game 2 Saves: 23
Game 3 Saves: 37
In Vasilevskiy’s last three games, he has recorded more than 32.5 saves twice. At home this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 31.55 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.38 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 25.5 Saves (-120/-105)
Game 1 Saves: 20
Game 2 Saves: 16
Game 3 Saves: 17
In Kuemper’s last three games, he has gone under this number in all of them. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 28.63 shots against. At home this post season, the Bolts average 34.00 shots on goal for. This line has also dropped significantly from around 27.5/28.5 in the first three games, to now 25.5.
Picks
[0.50u] Andrei Vasilevskiy over 32.5 Saves (-125) – DraftKings
[0.25u] COL/ TBL Under 6.0 (-114) – Barstool
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
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The Miami Marlins and the Colorado Rockies continue their series Wednesday. The Marlins took game one in an offensive explosion. Miami enters this ball game with a 30-36 record overall and a home run line record of 16-14. The Marlins are also 35-31 overall this year on the run line. The Rockies are 30-38 with a 13-17 record on the run line while playing on the road. The Rockies are scoring a lot less runs while playing on the road this season, nearly 2 less runs compared to the number of runs scored at home. Colorado will be starting Chad Kuhl. The right hander owns these splits versus the current Marlins roster; 11.1% K%, .396 wOBA, .405 xwOBA, .333 AVG, .317 xBA, .629 xSLG and Kuhl also owns a 4.00 road ERA with a 1.58 WHIP on the road. Pablo Lopez will be starting for the home Marlins, Lopez owns a 4-3 record with a 1.07 WHIP. Miami certainly holds a large starting pitching advantage in today’s game. Lopez ranks in the top percentiles for hard hit%, exit velocity, wOBA, K%, BB%, Whiff%, and xSLG. At home this season, Pablo Lopez owns a 2-1 record with a 2.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.89 FIp and an opponent BA of just .192 inside of LoanDepot Park. When the Fish give way to Lopez, they also have the advantage in bullpens where their relievers rank 6th in MLB with a 12.3% swinging strike % in the past 30 days. Miami tends to play better at home, ranks 6ths in wOBA (.323) against righties and ranks 15th in home runs hit and Kuhl has a tendency to give up the long ball. Colorado, on the other hand, are 23rd in home runs and really struggle away from Coors, owning a 27th ranked 79 wRC+. The Rockies defense ranks 28th, 29th or 30th in all but TWO defensive categories while Miami ranks in the top 10 in most defensive metrics. Take MIA (-1.5)
The Boston Red Sox are playing host to the Detroit Tigers. This is the final game of three games in these two team’s series against one another. The Red Sox have won the first two and are going for a sweep. The Tigers enter today’s play with a 26-42 record. On the season, the Tigers own a 24-42 OU record and in their 27 road games this season, 19 of them have gone under the total (70.4%) . Boston enters today’s contest with a 38-31 record and an over-under tally of 27-38 on the season. The Red Sox are also 15-19-1 to the under while playing inside of Fenway. The left handed Tarik Skubal is starting for Detroit in this contest and he owns a 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, an on par .300 BABIP and 2.54 FIP while striking out 28.3% of hit batters. Skubal has been just as consistent in his recent outings (1.13 WHIP, .309 BABIP, 3.19 FIP). Michael Wacha is the Red Sox starter, Wacha owns 1.03 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 3.66 FIP while opponents are only hitting .185 against him at Fenway. The BOS starter owns the following splits versus the current DET roster; 21.9% K%, .285 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, .239 xBA, .226 BA, .400 xSLG. Detroit’s bullpen has ranked in the Top-10 in multiple advanced metrics over the L30 days while Boston is ranked 7th in total runs allowed this season. It would not be shocking to see a pitchers duel for at least 5 innings and Wacha cruising into the 7th seeing as Detroit’s offense ranks dead last in runs scored on the road. Take under 8.5
