This game is kicking off at 3:30am EST so get the bets in now if you can.
Otago Nuggets vs. Hawke’s Bay Hawks (-8.5, -105)
Picks: Bay Hawks 1H -4.5 (-105) 1 unit and Bay Hawks -8.5 (-105), 1 unit
Long story short, the Nuggets just played 2 days ago, the Bay Hawks are coming off a 2 week hiatus, and the Nuggets have an extremely depleted roster. Their stars are either injured or out and they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games. In those 4 losses, they loss by an average margin of 15.75 points. The Bay Hawks, from what I’ve gathered, aren’t the best team in New Zealand but they’re healthy, rested, and have plenty of firepower to expose Otago’s shallow depth. I’ll be on the ol’ Bay Hawks at the half and full game.
Sunday card led by the N.L. East Game of the Year and the 5* ESPN Sunday night Bases play headlining a powerful card that Also has NASCAR. Saturday goes 5-1 overall. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB comp Play is on Houston.Game 973 at 4:10 eastern. Oakland pulled the upset on Saturday but have still lost 11 of 13 vs .600 or better and 17 of 22 vs a pitcher with a 1.30 or higher WHIP. Houston has won 20 of 26 vs division opponent, 10 of 11 if the total is 7 to 8.5 and 8 of 9 on Sundays. The Astros fit a powerful 95-42 last game of a series system. Odorizzi has allowed 1 or less run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Irvin for Oakland has lost 5 of 7 in Day starts. Look for Houston to get the win. On Sunday a huge card is up with the N.L. East Game of the Year, an ESPN 5* , NASCAR and more. Saturday card cashes big again. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Houston. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
I started out the weekend with a disappointing 1-2, -0.97u night(thanks Zac Gallen). Overall, my MLB record sits at 96-92-3, +1.61u. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to take some momentum into Sunday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Royals TT UNDER 3.5(+105) vs Guardians–3:10 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie’s 3.71 ERA is incredibly deceiving. The young righty holds a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season and is allowing just 6.6 hits/9 innings; his lone struggle has been allowing the long ball. Fortunately, the Royals rank just 24th in home runs this season and hold an unimpressive 80 wRC+(28th in MLB) at home vs right-handed pitching. McKenzie is also coming off a dominant start against the Yankees where he threw 7 scoreless innings and allowed just 2 baserunners. I really like this matchup for McKenzie.
Just a few weeks ago, the Guardians held the best bullpen WHIP in baseball. Since then, things have plummeted for this unit. With that being said, I’m not going to let a short-term slump keep me off trusting a unit that has performed well this season. Cleveland had Thursday off and needed just 2 arms last night; considering I expect McKenzie to go AT LEAST 6 innings, I feel comfortable making this a full game play and trusting the talented arms in the back end of the Guardians’ bullpen.
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Red Sox F5 OVER 5(-110)–8:40 PM CT
The Red Sox have run out a slew of overmatched arms this week against the Yankees, and tonight is going to be no different. Red Sox SP Kutter Crawford has horrible numbers early in his big league career(6.33 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and now has to face the best offense in baseball. Don’t take my word for it; the Yankees rank 1st in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching on the road this season. They scored 6 runs on Thursday and 12 runs last night facing Triple-A caliber arms, and I don’t expect tonight to be any different. While Crawford actually looked good in his last start vs Tampa Bay, his struggles at both the Triple-A and MLB level over the last two seasons give me no confidence he’ll step up well in this matchup.
Yankees SP Jordan Montgomery has been a reliable arm for New York this year, but this is simply not a good matchup. While the Red Sox have had their struggles going up against righties in their home ballpark, they hold a 140 wRC+ vs lefties at Fenway Park, good for 3rd in all of MLB. Boston racked 8 hits off of Nestor Cortes last night and chased him before he was able to get through 4 innings. Montgomery allowed 3 runs in 3.1 innings to the Sox earlier this season, and he has consistently been more vulnerable on the road throughout his career.
We have some great races this Saturday for the beginning legs of the Caesars Turf Triple Series, featuring the $1 million Caesars Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) and the $700,000 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1T). Both races are a Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” event. We have a ton of European entries who will look to try their luck in the States. I’ll breakdown both races and try and pick some winners.
Race Information:
Track: Belmont Park (Elmont, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race Name: Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes
Race: 7
Post Time: 4:06 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles (10 Furlongs)
Purse: $700,000
Division: Filly | Three Years Old
Surface: Inner Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 (7-9), Grand Slam (7-10), Late Pick 5 (.50) (7-11), Double
Weather:
Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 78F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50%. Based off this report, I’m expecting track conditions are listed as “good”.
TV Schedule:
FS2 – 1:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
Field:
Post Position
Horse
ML Odds
1
McKulick (GB)
6-1
2
Cairo Memories
12-1
3
Haughty
5-1
4
With The Moonlight (IRE)
6-1
5
Consumer Spending
5-1
6
New Year’s Eve
6-1
7
Hot Queen (FR)
20-1
8
Know Thyself (IRE)
20-1
9
Agartha (IRE)
10-1
10
Concert Hall (IRE)
3-1
Horse Preview:
McKulick (GB)
Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Career Statistics: (4) 1-2-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 0-2-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-0-1
McKulick has only four starts in her career but has yet to finish outside the money in any of them. In her last race, she finished 2nd in the G3 Regret Stakes. Before that, she ran 2nd again in the G2 Edgewood Stakes and 3rd in the G2 Miss Grillo Stakes. Her lone win was back in her first start in a MSW. In all four races, she’s run at a distance of 1 1/16 but will add a few furlongs in the Belmont Oaks. She’s a closer that has seemed to run out of room in her past few races so the distance should suit her well. The only issue is that she’s never faced this level of competition as this will be her first G1 Stakes race. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode her in her first two starts and will get the reigns back for the Oaks.
Cairo Memories
Owner: David A. Bernsen, LLC and Schroeder Farms LLC
Trainer: Robert B Hess, Jr
Jockey: Mike E Smith
Career Statistics: (7) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Cairo Memories has won both of her last two races including the G3 Honeymoon Stakes and G3 Providencia Stakes. She’s raced in two G1 Stakes before finishing 2nd (Starlet Stakes) and 9th (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf). The increased distance in her past few races has seemed to suit her well and she’ll add a few lengths in this race. Mike E Smith has been on her in the past three races so he should be very familiar with her running style.
Haughty
Owner: Bradley Thoroughbreds, Belmar Racing and Breeding, LLC, Cambron Equine,
LLC and Team Hanley
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (4) 2-0-2
2022 Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
* If you’re looking at the Equibase PP, she actually ran 3rd in her debut. It’s a misprint.
Haughty has only raced once this year which came last month where she handily won the Penn Oaks at Penn National. In the race prior, she ran 3rd in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. She’s handled the additional distance well before, so I expect her to do the same here. Flavien Prat was on her in the last race so he’ll retain the reigns. Side note, her last race was in sloppy conditions and with the morning rain, she may face similar conditions.
With The Moonlight (IRE)
Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettor
Career Statistics: (6) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
With the Moonlight will be making her debut in the states. She enters the Oaks off an 11th place finish in the G1 Cazoo Oaks. To be fair, this race was an outlier as she looked winded so we’ll she how she responds a little over a month later. Prior to that outing, she won three of her four last starts. Lanfranco Dettor will ride With The Moonlight for the first time.
Consumer Spending
Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (2) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
Consumer Spending has won four of her six starts. In her last outing, she won the G2 Wonder Again Stakes at Belmont. She’s raced in one G1 Stakes (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf) before where she ran 6th. In that race, fellow entrant Haughty ran 3rd. Manuel Franco has ridden her in the past two starts, which she won, so he’ll be back in the saddle for the Belmont Oaks. This is a filly who seems to like the distance so, she should so well here.
New Year’s Eve
Owner: Detampel, Marc and Galvin, Fergus
Trainer: Brendan P Walsh
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
New Year’s Eve has only lost one start in her career. In her last outing she won the G2 Edgewood Stakes defeating fellow entrant McKulick by over two lengths. Before I go too much into this horse, I want to look at her one defeat where she ran 3rd. In all of her wins (3) she has had firm turf conditions. In that lone outlier, the track conditions were listed as “good” which based off the weather report, I’m sure the conditions will be listed as that for this race. While she was bumped in that race, it is something to note. Her last two workouts have been great and she seems to handle the distance well so, be sure to keep a close eye out for her.
Hot Queen (FR)
Owner: Blichfeldt, Finn
Trainer: Pia Brandt
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career Statistics: (11) 3-3-2
2022 Statistics: (3) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Hot Queen will make her American debut in the Belmont Oaks. She’s only raced against one other entrant before and that was Know Thyself who beat her in the G3 Prix Vanteaux. In the three stakes races she’s entered, she has never finished better than 3rd. Given the field, I don’t see her competing.
Know Thyself (IRE)
Owner: Glen Hill Farm
Trainer: Francis – Henri Graffard
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Career Statistics: (5) 1-1-1
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Another filly who will be making her state side debut. As I mentioned above, she finished 2nd in the G3 Prix Vanteaux beating out fellow entrant Hot Queen. We don’t know much about her but again, I just don’t see her competing given the quality of the field.
Agartha (IRE)
Owner: Heider Family Stables LLC
Trainer: Joseph Patrick O’Brien
Jockey: John R Velazquez
Career Statistics: (11) 2-5-2
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-2-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Agartha, like other entrants, will be making her debut in the US. She has won two graded stakes before including the G2 Alpha Centauri Debutante Stakes and G3 Frank Conroy Silver Flash Stakes. Agartha has raced in two G1 Stakes as well finishing 5th (Tattersalls Irish One Thousand Guineas) and 2nd (Moyglare Stud Stakes). In her last race, where she ran 5th, she was beaten by fellow competitor Concert Hall who ran 3rd.
Concert Hall (IRE)
Owner: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B. and Smith, Derrick
Trainer: Aidan P O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Career Statistics: (10) 3-1-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Concert Hall is the morning line favorite listed at 3-1. She’s never raced before in the US so we’ll she if she has any trouble with the slight change in surface. In terms of wet turf, she’s fairly comfortable having raced 10 times in similar conditions, winning three times. She’s raced in three G1 Stakes before never finishing better than 3rd. Her lone win this year was in the Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Salsabil Stakes, which wasn’t graded. The team of Aidan P O’Brien and Ryan L Moore has been successful recently in this race winning with Athena in 2018 and Santa Barbara last year (2021). Santa Barbara (IRE) was the first European bred horse to win this race since 2013 when Alterite (FR) won.
Picks:
WIN: (6) NEW YEAR’S EVE
This three year-old filly is coming off an impressive win the G2 Edgewood Stakes running a 107 speed figure. She’s seemed to handle an increase in distance well so, hopefully she can do the same again.
Implementation was born in the States (KY) but has only raced over-seas in his career. He’ll make his U.S. debut in this race coming off a 4th place finish in the G3 Prix Paul de Moussac Longines. This was his second G3 Stakes as he finished 3rd in the Prix de Guiche in the race prior. In that race he finished behind fellow entrant Machete who also beat him in the Prix Maurice Caillault. It took him three times to break his maiden which came in February of this year. Since that win, he has yet to find the winners circle again. I’m not sure he has the speed to compete here but based on his past performances the additional distance should suit him well.
Stolen Base
Owner: Three Diamonds Farm and Greathouse, Deuce
Trainer: Michael J Maker
Jockey: Luis Saez
Career Statistics: (9) 2-3-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 1-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Stolen Base, son of Bodemeister, captured his second victory in his last start. His last win was in his debut where he won a MSW at the Spa. In his most recent race, he won the G2 American Turf Stakes beating fellow entrant Sy Dog. Before that, he lost to Tiz the Bomb in consecutive races. In his lone G1 Stakes, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. he finished 7th.
Napoleonic War
Owner: Brant, Peter, M.
Trainer: Chad C Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Career Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (1) 0-1-0
Napoleonic War only has four starts to his name. In his last start, he was the runner-up in the G2 Pennine Ridge Stakes. That race was at 1 1/8 Miles which was the longest distance he’s run and seemed to handle well. His speed figures have improved in every start and if he hopes to be competitive in this race, that trend will have to continue. In the two races he’s lost, it’s come at the hands of fellow entrants Emmanuel (Pennine Ridge Stakes) and Sy Dog (Transylvania Stakes).
Classic Causeway
Owner: Kentucky West Racing LLC and Cooper, Clarke M.
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Julien R Leparoux
Career Statistics: (8) 3-1-2
2022 Statistics: (5) 2-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Classic Causeway last ran this distance in the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 11th. In his most recent race, he finished 3rd in the G3 Ohio Derby. His last victories came in March and February of this year where he won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. This will be his first race on the turf as all of his previous eight starts have been on the dirt.
Grand Sonata
Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, LLC
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Career Statistics: (7) 3-2-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Grand Sonata, son of Medaglia d’Oro, hasn’t been as dominant as his father was. In his last start, he ran 3rd in the Audubon Stakes. Prior to that, he finished 2nd in the G3 Transylvania Stakes and won the G3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes. His speed figures have been improving in each start but, I’m just not sure he’ll be competitive given this field.
Machete (FR)
Owner: Chappet, Fabrice
Trainer: Fabrice Chappet
Jockey: Stephane Pasquier
Career Statistics: (8) 2-1-1
2022 Statistics: (6) 2-1-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Machete, doesn’t have a particularly impressive resume. In his last out, he entered his first G1 Stakes (Qatar Prix du Jockey Club) where he finished 7th. Prior to that, he entered two G3 Stakes where he finished 2nd (Prix de Guiche) and 5th (Prix La Force).
Sy Dog
Owner: Head of Plains Partners LLC
Trainer: H Graham Motion
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Career Statistics: (4) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Sy Dog, has won three of his four career starts. In his last race, he suffered his first loss in to Stolen Base in the G2 American Turf Stakes. Despite running 3rd, he raced well finishing with his best speed figure. Before that, he won the G3 Transylvania Stakes and the Central Park Stakes. The G3 Transylvania Stakes had conditions that should be similar to todays.
Royal Patronage (FR)
Owner: Highclere Thoroughbred Racing, LLC
Trainer: Charlie Johnston
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Career Statistics: (9) 3-2-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 0-1-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Royal Patronage will make his US debut. He last ran in the G1 Cazoo Derby where he finished 16th. Prior to that, he was the runner-up in the G2 Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes which was run at 1 5/16 miles. His last win came in 2021 in the G2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes. He’s primary raced on wet turf so, the conditions shouldn’t faze him in the slightest.
Tiz the Bomb
Owner: Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Kenneth G McPeek
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Career Statistics: (9) 5-1-0
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Tiz the Bomb’s last race was the G1 Kentucky Derby where he ran 9th after a slow start. Prior to that, he won the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes and the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. In his three starts on Turf, he’s won twice and finished second once. His workouts have been encouraging so despite the short layoff, he looks to be in great form.
Nations Pride (IRE)
Owner: Godolphin, LLC
Trainer: Charles Appleby
Jockey: Lanfranco Dettor
Career Statistics: (6) 4-1-0
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Nations Pride is another entrant who will make his debut in the States. He last raced in the G1 Cazoo Derby where he finished 8th. Before that, he won his last four races including the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Newmarket Stakes. He seems to be comfortable at this distance and with his speed he should have a great shot to win.
Emmanuel
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC and Siena Farm LLC
Trainer: Todd A Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr
Career Statistics: (5) 3-0-1
2022 Statistics: (4) 2-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (1) 1-0-0
Emmanuel won the G2 Pennine Ridge Stakes defeating fellow entrant Napoleonic in his last start. That was also his first start on turf. The additional distance seemed to suit him well and based off his most recent speed figures this race sets up nicely for him. In his lone G1 Stakes start, he finished 3rd in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Limited Liability
Owner: Janney, III, Stuart, S
Trainer: Claude R McGaughey III
Jockey: Jose L Ortiz
Career Statistics: (5) 2-0-3
2022 Statistics: (2) 1-0-1
Belmont Statistics: (2) 0-0-2
Limited Liability has yet to finish outside the money in his five career starts. In his last race he was bested by fellow entrants Emmanuel and Napoleonic War. His three defeats were all in graded stakes races which is a concern as this will be the strongest field he’s faced. However, the track conditions should suit him well as he won both races on wet turf.
Stone Age (IRE)
Owner: Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael B., Smith, Derrick, Westerberg, Brant, Peter
Trainer: Aidan P O’Brien
Jockey: Ryan L Moore
Career Statistics: (8) 2-3-1
2022 Statistics: (3) 2-0-0
Belmont Statistics: (0) 0-0-0
Stone Age enters this race off suffering his first defeat of the season. He ran 6th in the G1 Cazoo Derby. A month before that, he won the G3 Derby Trail by five lengths. His best finish in a G1 Stakes race was last year in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud where he was the runner-up. Stone Age will also be making his North American debut.
Picks:
WIN: (13) STONE AGE
Stone Age, is trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore which was the combination for last years winner, Bolshoi Ballet. While he did struggle in his last start, he ran earned a 112 speed figure in the Derby Trail Stakes, which is the second highest in the field. He’s ran at this distance before and has shown that he has the speed to compete. I believe we see Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore back in the winners circle.
EXACTA BOX PART WHEEL: (13) / (6), (9), (11)
* with (11) Emmanuel scratched, I’m replacing him with the (10) Nations Pride
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has a Powerful 5* MLB Afternoon Blowout and an evening MLB Executive Level TIER 1. Now 2-0 this week in CFL we have a big 6* going tonight. MLB Sides ranked #1 this year. MLB Comp play below
The MLB Comp play is on the Philadelphia Phillies at 2:15 eastern. This Phils have won 6 of 7 on the road vs a winning team and 17 of 22 vs a righty. Today they fit a tight dog system that plays on road dogs of less than 120 off a road favored win where they scored 2 or less runs and are taking on a home team off a home shutout loss in a Non division game. Gibson for the Phils has not pitched since last Saturday and was ripped at home by the Cardinals so we can expect some adjustments today. Dakota Hudson has allowed 14 runs in his last 13 innings and has a 4.68 Day Era. St. Louis has lost 4 of 5 vs a winning team of late. Play on the Phils. On Saturday another Big Bases Card is up with an Executive Level TIER 1 Tonight and a Rare 6* CFL Undefeated Power system play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the MLB Comp Play. Take Philadelphia. Rob V-
Make sure you tell your grandkids about this period of time, when MLB bets that make way too much sense just keep losing. This is history. Behold.
Enjoy your Saturday, boys and gals. And low key not so low key — I have one of those weird feelings that probably all long-time-bettors get here and there; this WILL be a winning day. Feels like it could be a big winning day. Kind of weird despite our recent results in MLB, I get it. Stay tuned.
MLB Picks:
Angels/Orioles NRFI (-115), to win 1 unit
Angels/Orioles First 5 under 4.5 (-125), to win 1 unit
Both Sandoval and Kremer had tough outings in their last starts yet they still have great ERAs and their command has been steady all season. I might attend this game today, so the last thing I want is a slow start, but this is a perfect positive regression spot for both pitchers and after last night’s melee of points towards the end, it’s bound to slow down.
Astros over 5.5 runs (-105), to win 3 units
Yes, that’s a 3 unit play. Zach Logue is a 26 year old rookie with a 7.73 xERA and he’s allowed 2.55/9 innings and 15 runs in 23 innings this season. Houston is juiced in the -300s for a reason but the better value is on Bregman, Altuve, and Alvarez to feast early and often. Six runs ain’t hard to eclipse with this setup– the Astros are white hot and showing 0 signs of slowing down.
Guardians (-128), to win 1 unit
Cleveland just keeps on winning with McKenzie and KC just keeps on losing with Heasley. The Royals have less of a stake in this series after they fought hard against the Astros, and Cleveland is overdue for some better results, particularly on offense. This is a good spot to get right and it feels like KC is about to go on another one of those spiraling losing streaks after showing some promise at Houston.
Rays -1.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units
After the way the game ended last night, on a goddamn balk, the Rays will be ready to explode today against the very winnable, very low-scoring Reds. Rasmussen does not allow many big hits and that’s about Cincinnati’s only chance to score points – big, opportune slugs. I expect Tampa to be at their retributive best today.
Blue Jays (-122), to win 2 units
Alek Manoah, literally our favorite pitcher, was on the wrong side of fireworks in his last start on the 4th. It was one of those strange, out-of-character performances that you just see sometimes in sports. It’s just variance. But when a pitcher as commanding and skilled as Manoah is in a good spot for a revenge game, that’s even more predictable and we think he’ll be at his best today. He also doesn’t drop off on the road at all, averaging a 2.47 ERA away from home. The Jays are a dangerous team when they have elite pitching and although Robbie Ray has been solid, expect more from the Toronto bats today and the Jays to finally snag a win in this series.
CFL Picks:
Blue Bombers/Lions 1H over 24.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The over is 8-1 in the last 9 Lions games and the Blue Bombers’ defense is a little fake news- they’ve survived and kept scoring low thanks to fortunate turnovers. Both of these offenses should be able to explode today and the pace should cultivate a high-scoring game. Just in case there’s some weird late-game variance and since the full game total has moved up too high, we’ll earn some units in the first half.
Wimbledon:
Jabeur/Rybakina over 21.5, to win 1.5 units
Both fighters, both powerful serves, both willing to give up a set. Makes too much sense.
UFC Picks: None today – gonna sit back and just watch this one and learn.
A 3-0, +3u Thursday brings me to 95-90-3, +2.58u on the MLB season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to use last night’s momentum and start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 -0.5(-120) vs Tigers–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Lucas Giolito went into an uncharacteristic cold spell after a stint on the IL, but the former All Star has really rounded into form over his last 2 starts. He threw 6 innings of 2 run ball against the Angels before throwing 6 innings of 1 run ball in his last start in San Francisco. Giolito has always been a guy I can trust, and I love this matchup for him tonight. The Tigers actually got their bats going earlier this week against a slew of mediocre Guardians starters, but as expected, they looked completely overmatched against Dylan Cease last night. Detroit has been a historically bad offense this year; on the road vs righties, they hold a laughable 54 wRC+(100 is league average). I like Giolito to continue his current stretch and shut down this Tigers lineup tonight.
Tigers SP Tarik Skubal held a 2.15 ERA heading into June, but as I look back, he drew some really easy matchups in the first two months of the season. As the summer has gone on, Skubal has regressed mightily, allowing at least 3 ER in his last 6 starts and allowing 5 or more ER in 3 of those 6 starts. More than that, this is a terrible matchup for Skubal. While the White Sox have been a disappointing team overall this season, the one thing that has remained steady about them is their ability to mash left-handed pitching. The White Sox rank 1st in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching this season, and that is a trend that has remained true for years now. Skubal allowed 4 ER in 4 innings pitched vs the White Sox earlier this season; I’d expect a similar performance in tonight’s game.
*MLB(1u): Diamondbacks F5 -0.5(-120) vs Rockies–8:40 PM CT
Diamondbacks SP Zac Gallen seems to have put it all together here in 2022. The righty holds a 3.40 ERA and 1.05 WHIP heading into tonight’s start, and that WHIP drops to 0.94 in his home ballpark. While he does face the Rockies for the second time in a week’s span, Gallen has experience in this role. While he faltered against the Padres the last time he found himself in this spot, he delivered repeat quality performances in his second straight start vs both the Cubs and Mets earlier this season. Additionally, facing the Rockies in Coors Field is completely incomparable to facing them on the road. The Rockies stink vs righties on the road, carrying a 65 wRC+(29th in MLB) into tonight’s game.
Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has adapted well to pitching at Coors Field, but he has been an utter train wreck on the road. While a 4.59 ERA on the road might not do that justice, consider his measly 1.59 WHIP and 5 BB/9 away from Coors Field this season. While the D-Backs don’t have great overall numbers offensively this season, they enter this game in pretty solid current form. Over their last 10 games, Arizona has averaged over 6 runs/game. Kuhl is the perfect example of why you can’t judge pitchers by their overall numbers; he is a completely different pitcher on the road than he is at Coors Field.
*MLB(0.77u): Mets -1.5(+130) vs Marlins–6:10 PM CT
Mets SP Chris Bassitt has adjusted nicely to pitching at Citi Field this season. In 8 home starts this year, Bassitt holds an impressive 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Marlins have seen righties well at home this season, they rank 23rd in wRC+ vs righties away from their home ballpark. More importantly, the Marlins are without 2 of their best bats in Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler. This is not a team that can afford to lose their centerpieces, and as you might expect, Miami has scored less than 2 runs/game this week in the absence of those guys.
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez is an All Star caliber arm, but he has been far better at home over the last two seasons. He held an ERA north of 4.00 on the road last season, and his ERA skyrockets over a full point more on the road this year(WHIP jumps up 0.17 points as well). This Mets lineup also presents a tough matchup, as they rank 4th in wRC+ vs righties at home this season. Aside from one clunker performance in Cincinnati, the Mets have put up 7, 8, and 10 runs this week. This is a lineup I can trust because they do a lot of little things right and don’t rely too much on the long ball to produce runs. Lopez gave up 6 ER a few weeks ago at Citi Field, which is a clear indicator he doesn’t match up well with this opposing offense.
The Mets also have a pretty clear bullpen advantage in this game. By nature of winning by 10 runs last night, every back-end piece will be fresh and ready to go for New York tonight. Miami’s bullpen, on the other hand, has been a major disappointment this year, ranking 21st in bullpen WHIP entering tonight’s matchup.
Steve and Chris go over the NFC and what teams they like, what teams they’re fading, and what futures’ plays still make sense. Listen to THE BOYZ banter about their favorite sport — after all, I mean… we DID WIN CIRCA last year. Let’s go!
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The real frustrating shit about my betting MLB this year is once we have a good play or we get ahead, some BS happens. White Sox keep the Tigers to 2 but lose? What? I was conservative about the Mets and just chose their ML; they win 10-0. What? Then of course no comment on the Royals, unreal, or the soulless batting between Pittsburgh and Cincy. Okay I’m done.
Fuckin CFL too, huh? Weird day. But it’s Friday, LFG. Lots of sarcasm in the below write-ups, ha.
MLB Picks:
Rays -1.5 (EVEN), to win 1 unit
McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all season (1.74 ERA, 2.21 xERA, 87% LOB rate), and he’s been even better on the road. Castillo has been mostly steady this year but for whatever reason, his ERA drops to 4.18 on his home turf. Cincinnati can’t score to save their life, while the Rays have scored 7 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Because it’s baseball and every day is opposite day, I guess we should bet on the Reds at -3.5. I’ll pray and go with what MAKES SENSE instead.
Orioles -1.5 (+140), to win 1.4 units
The Orioles are RED HOT right now, they’re 4-0 in Tyler Wells’ last four starts at home and 7-0 in his last 7 starts since the end of May. Not much scares me about Reid Detmers’s (5.02 xERA) profile and while Baltimore hasn’t been the most skilled against lefties, I’ll take momentum, confidence, and a stable pitcher any day.
Mets -1.5 (+130), to win 1.3 units
I guess this is run-line day for your boy. Pablo Lopez has fallen off the last month, offering an ugly 5.34 ERA the past 30 days. The Mets have beaten the Marlins, who historically struggle against NYM, in 6 out of their last 8 contests. Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, enters confident at home, allowing 6 runs over 13 innings in his last two starts against Miami. Oh yeah, and the Mets’ offense is rather warm right now too. All Mets.
Yankees and Dodgers ML Parlay, 1 unit to win 1.4 units
Connor Seabold sucks, Keegan Thompson is showing signs of regression, and it’s Nestor Cortes and lefty Tyler Anderson and two vastly superior lineups against the fledgling Red Sox and pathetic Cubs. Fuck you baseball, this should be a win.
CFL Picks:
Saskatchewan Roughriders -5 (-114), to win 1.5 units
This line opened with the visiting Redblacks getting 10 points initially, wow. We’ll work on getting early numbers, but that’s wild considering where it is now. A superior outfit in the Roughriders, with a great passing attack, is going up against a banged up secondary in the Redblacks. Ottawa scored their “response win” in their last game on Saturday so this showdown feels far less desperate. Meanwhile, Ottawa can’t get a pass rush to save their lives and the Roughriders probably have the best defense in the CFL. Couple that with a new offense for the Redblacks that’s still learning and growing together – the value on the dog is gone and it’s time to snag the favorite.
Wimbledon:
Norrie/Djokovic over 30.5 (-112, to win 1 unit)
1st Set, Norrie +2.5 (EVEN), 1 unit
I’m sure this is the match where Novak will play his best tennis ever, like Kyrgios did when we bet on his over, and Djokovic probably wins in 3 straight sets, 6-1 in each. Sure. But the probabilities suggest, with how lax Novak can start these matches and with how solid and proficient Norrie has been, that it should easily cruise over. Essentially all we need is Norrie to win 1 set OR keep every set close. We like those odds, and I think Norrie starts off crisp. The only 1st set he lost at Wimbledon was in his quarterfinals match 3 days ago and it almost nipped him in the bud.
