A 1-3 Tuesday is not what we were looking for, but I still remain +11.75u in MLB over the last 44 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Marlins -1.5(+115) vs Rockies–5:40 PM CT
Marlins SP Pablo Lopez takes the hill for Miami in a role he’s excelled in each of the past two seasons. Lopez held an impressive 2.34 ERA at Marlins Park in 2021, and he’s followed that up by delivering a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home this season. In addition to this being his best role, Lopez will also get a very favorable matchup. The Rockies can swing it in their home ballpark, but they struggle mightily on the road, especially against right-handed pitching. The Rockies currently rank 29th in OPS vs righties on the road with a brutal .580 OPS to their name, and they were 29th in this role last year as well. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl has adjusted nicely to pitching in Coors Field, but he has been a “play against” pitcher when he’s on the road dating back to his time in Pittsburgh. On the road this season, Kuhl holds an ugly 1.58 WHIP and is also walking over 5 batters per 9 innings. While this might come as a surprise, the Marlins actually rank 1st in OPS vs right-handed pitching in their home ballpark and are coming off a 9 run performance from a night ago. While I don’t expect that to continue over the rest of this season, they certainly have the clear advantage in today’s game. The Marlins bullpen has been a bit disappointing this year, but luckily Colorado’s bullpen has been even worse; in fact, the Rockies bullpen has actually performed worse on the road than they have in their home ballpark. The stars align for a comfortable Marlins victory, with the main point being that Lopez is a top-of-the-line arm across the league here in 2022. I’m +5.58u fading the Rockies on the road this season, and we’ll look to add to that tonight.
*MLB(1u): Twins TT UNDER 4.5(-120) vs Guardians–6:40 PM CT
Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He ranks 7th in WHIP and now holds a sub-3.00 ERA to his name. Most impressive of all, McKenzie is allowing less than 6 hits/9 innings while allowing less than 2.5 walks/9 innings. The only knock on McKenzie has been his knack for giving up long balls, which is really the only damage he has allowed. Consider his last start against these same Twins back on May 15th: McKenzie went 7 strong innings and allowed just 3 hits, but two of them happened to be solo home runs. I would make the argument that McKenzie has actually been more dominant than his numbers illustrate(although his FIP would contradict that given how much weight it puts on HR/9). Not only has McKenzie been dominant, but the Guardians hold the best bullpen numbers across the board in MLB(sub-3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). While they did have to dig deep into that bullpen last night, Monday was an off day for Cleveland; because no key reliever threw more than 20 pitches, every valuable arm should be available for the Guardians tonight. I’ve long said that I think Minnesota is the most overvalued team in baseball and that, as they start to play stiffer competition in the month of June, this team will regress considerably. I’d feel good about the arms the Guardians will roll out there against almost any offense, so I’m not afraid to go against the Twins when they’re facing a top-of-the-line staff.
Chris is back for a quick recap of the NBA Finals, thoughts on some NFL Futures, he discusses what he’s betting this summer and previews the new “Summer Series” podcast and what it means for his listeners! Check it out!
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You may have seen me tweet some NFL futures I like yesterday, but allow me to expand on these plays here. Some are just leans.
NFL Futures:
Falcons under 4.5, 1 unit
I think this team will be really, really bad, period. Defense, offense, coaching, etc, and there’s evidence that both Carolina and NO could be better than some think. Oh and then there’s Brady and Tampa Bay. UNDER. SAD.
Panthers over 5.5, lean
Cowboys under 10.5, 1 unit
There’s also evidence that the NFC East will be considerably better this year, especially when it comes to Philly. I’m buying the hype on the Eagles that, in the least, they won’t be an easy out as a contender to win the division, and my Giants, for what it’s worth, are showing a ton of buy-signs right now. Dallas typically stumbles late in the season, so don’t be afraid to take a mid-season under if this gets inflated.
Packers under 11.5, 1.5 units
Here’s my thing about Green Bay. I realize they have an elite running game, elite defensive players, and arguably the best player in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers. But sometimes that’s not enough. The long, painstaking pattern of the Packers performing well in the regular season and then faltering in the playoffs is getting very old; for their players, coaches, fans, and staff. The Vikings should be much more competitive and the Lions might have some extra “feisty” in them this year with Dan Campbell coaching in season #2. The Packers could very likely win 11 games, but I have to anticipate an under.
Texans under 4.5, lean
Vikings over 8.5, 1 unit
I’ve talked about it already but yea, I like Minnesota more than usual. A new coach with great experience from LAR should reinvigorate a team that’s truly super talented in a lot of ways that matter – a QB that can get it done, a top 5 RB, a top 5 WR, and playmakers on defense. This is the year Minnesota gets very competitive, IMO.
Steelers over 7.5, 1.5 units
Hey look, it’s the marketplace undervaluing Pittsburgh, AGAIN! We’ve seen Pittsburgh win consistently with far worse QBs than what they have this year, and I’m not so certain that Kenny Pickett is as pedestrian as people may think. Another top 5 defense, a tough-ass RB, and superior coaching = Ws. I realize how good the AFC North is, but that’s nothing new and all Tomlin does is execute winning seasons.
Mornin’, team! Things weren’t looking bad in MLB for us last night, and then it got real bad, like 5 runs in extra innings bad to ruin an even day (TOR/CHW). What are ya gonna do? Here are a few options:
Burn your TV
Burn your laptop
Stop betting
Call the MLB hotline and tell them their sport sucks
Or we could just carry the fuck on
Of course I wouldn’t blame you if you chose 1-4. I’ll choose 5, for now. Onto our plays!
MLB Picks:
Mets ML (again, +117), 1.5 units to win 1.74 units
Carrasco is 4-1 against winning teams and while Houston looks like another heavyweight contender this year, they’ve feasted on low-level teams in their division and I’m not buying that they’re just going to waltz through this series at home. The Mets don’t often put up only 2 runs when they get 8 hits like they did Tuesday – this is a better spot to play on NYM and we’re taking them for + money.
Blue Jays/White Sox over 9, 1.1 units to win 1
This total is steamed up for a reason, Stripling has been struggling, and Giolito doesn’t look like himself this year. Top offenses do their thing again in an early revenge spot for a stumbling Toronto team that NEEDS their bats to be more consistent.
Dodgers -1.5 (-105) and Angels -1.5 (-115), both to win 1.5 units
The Reds can’t score and I damn sure don’t trust Luis Castillo like others have started to. He’ll have to prove his command over a longer stretch, and Tyler Anderson (2.82 ERA, 0.81 HR/9 innings) has been a stud. Cincinnati’s offense shouldn’t be able to keep up. In the late game, this is a great setup with Ohtani on the mound against one of the worst defenses in MLB (KC is 27th in opponent batting average), and the Angels look to rebound and prevent another long losing slide. We like both of these west teams by margin today.
NHL Picks:
Game 4 under 6, 1.1 units to win 1
If any game will fly under, it’s this one. Both teams got annihilated by the other’s explosive offense in two consecutive games, and now it’s just about a mentality. The human mind can only handle so many “mentalities,” and we have to assume that both teams will switch from ultra-aggressive to, “Hey, we can’t allow them to do that again!” This is psychology, and while it’s not as consistent in a sport like hockey, this is the championship series and both teams have shown a ton of scoring prowess. Time to show some defense.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
France – LNB Pro A
Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. AS Monaco, 1H over 78 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
The first team is sometimes named ASVEL Basket for short, in case you can’t find this game at your sportsbook. When Lyon-V has a down game or a loss, they tend to play with offensive-fire in the next contest, which usually means points. Yesterday’s contest went at a molasses-pace in the first 2 quarters of play. We think this one will pick up and become more of an offensive-showcase; that’s the pattern we see, anyway.
Chinese Taipei
Hsinchu Lioneers vs. Fubon Braves under 207 (-120), 1.2 units to win 1
From the research we conducted, the Braves rarely score over 100 points in a contest and these two teams get very defensive when they face off. Three previous games went way under the total and this one’s a bit of a rubber match after the Braves snagged a win in the last showdown. We’ll go under.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
What a U.S. Open! We had a great week as we caught Matt Fitzpatrick at 30-1 to win. He became the first player since Danny Willet in 2016 to win a major-championship as his first PGA Tour Victory. In addition to the outright winner we went 1/2 in Top 20 and Top 40 placements bringing out weekly total to +7.43 Units.
This is the first year since the COVID-19 Pandemic began that the Travelers will have full attendance. Historically, it’s been one of the most attended tournaments on Tour so it should be a great atmosphere. TPC River Highlands is a shorter course but, can still pose a challenge to players. In the past few years, we’ve seen the weather being the determining factor and given the early forecast, it could turn into a birdie-fest.
Tournament Information:
Dates: June 23rd, 2022 – June 26th, 2022
Location: Cromwell, Connecticut, United States
Course: TPC River Highlands
Course Type: Northeast
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 6,852 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Bentgrass/ Poa annua .110″
Fairways: Bentgrass/ Poa annua .375″
Rough: Kentucky bluegrass/ fescue 4″+
Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
Purse: $8,300,000 / $1,494,000 Winner
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 69
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Course Scoring Average:
2021: 69.74 (-0.26), Rank 22 of 51
2020: 68.63 (-1.37), Rank 32 of 41
2019: 69.72 (-0.28), Rank 19 of 49
Historic Cut Line:
2021: -2
2020: -4
2019: -2
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Robert Ross/ Maurice Kearney (1928)
TPC River Highlands was founded in 1928 and was known back then as Middletown Golf Club. Just six years later, the course underwent another name change to Edgewood Country Club. In the early 1980’s the club was purchased by the PGA Tour and underwent a renovation that redesigned the course to TPC standards. With the renovation came another name change and in 1984, the club became known was TPC of Connecticut. Five years later, the course would undergo another renovation and became known as TPC River Highlands.
The tournament itself was founded in 1952 and originally held at Wethersfield Country Club, a few miles north of the current location.
Since 1984, TPC River Highlands has been the host course for the Travelers Championship. Just like the course itself, the tournament has underwent several name changes as well including the Buick Championship and Greater Hartford Open.
Dating to 2010, five of the last twelve Travelers Championships have come down to a playoff. In the past twelve years at TPC River Highlands, Bubba Watson has won three times here. His first victory was back in 2010 with his most recent win coming in 2018.
In 2021, Harris English defeated Kramer Hickok in a sudden-death playoff on the 8th hole. That playoff was tied for the second longest sudden-death playoff in PGA Tour history.
Following last years tournament, a new professional tee was added on Hole No. 17 increasing the length from 420 to 431.
72-Hole Record: 258, Kenny Perry (2019)
18-Hole Record: 58, Jim Furyk (4th Round, 2016)
Most tournament wins: (4) Billy Casper: 1963, 1965, 1968, 1973
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC River Highlands is a Par 70 that plays 6,852 yards. In terms of length it’s one of the shortest courses on Tour. Looking back at past winners, it’s been a mix of players who’ve found success. We’ve had players who aren’t long off the tee such as Chez Reavie win but, we’ve also had bombers such as DJ take home the trophy as well.
Going off that, there’s one of two approaches that players take off the tee. For the guys who don’t have the distance, they’ll usually club down and focus on finding the fairway. With the rough playing 4″+ it’s some of the most penal rough on Tour. Opposite of that approach, we’ve had guys take more aggressive lines off the tee to limit their approach shots.
The course features, four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and just two Par 5’s. Starting with the Par 3’s, two of the four play 200+ yards ( No. 5, No. 8). Three of the four Par 3’s played over par last year with the only hole playing under par being No. 11.Hole No. 11 is a downhill par 3 that has bunkers on the front right guarding the green.
Out of all of those Par 3’s with a scoring average over par, No. 5 is the most difficult. Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 223 yards that requires a great approach shot to avoid a difficult birdie putt.
Holes No. 6 and No. 13 are the two Par 5’s on TPC River Highlands. Both of these holes had a scoring average below par last year.
No. 6 is a dog-leg right that plays 574 yards. Only the longest hitters will be able to reach the green in 2. Others will hit a wedge shot around 100 yards that will require some precise accuracy for an easy birdie look.
No. 13 is 523 yards that most plays should be able to reach in 2. However, accuracy off the tee is required as water is to the right and the left is out-of-bounds. On players approach shots they’ll need to be wary of the water the surrounds the green along the front left.
Out of the twelve Par 4’s at TPC River Highlands, six of the holes had a scoring average over par last year. The most difficult hole was No 4 that had an average of 4.196 strokes. No. 4 is the longest Par 4 playing 481 yards that requires two great shots to reach the green in regulation.
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass & Poa annua)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Par 4 Scoring: 400- 450 Yards
Birdie or Better %
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Scrambling %
Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Given the week after a major-championship the field can be a little questionable. However, we have a pretty decent field this week with five of the top 10 players in the OGWR are teeing it up at TPC River Highlands.
Rory McIlroy (+900), is one of the co-favorites this week in Connecticut. He’s played in the Travelers three times before with an average score of 67.50 per round. McIlroy did not participate in last years event with his best finishing coming in 2020 where he finished 11th. In those three appearances at TPC River Highlands, McIlroy has yet to finish T17 or worse. Rory’s coming off a T5 finish last week at the U.S. Open and captured the RBC Canadian Open the week prior. In his last five starts he hasn’t finished outside the top-20.
Scottie Scheffler (+900), is another co-favorite this week at the Travelers. He’s played in this event two times before, missing the cut in 2020 and finishing T47 in 2021. Scheffler already has four victories to his name this season. Last week he finished one behind Fitzpatrick at the U.S. Open. Since the cut at the PGA Championship, he has finished 2/ T18/ T2 in his last three starts.
Justin Thomas (+1000), will be making his eighth appearance at the Travelers Championship this week. Out of those seven starts at TPC River Highlands, his best finish was T3 back in 2016. Since then he has finished outside the top 40 every year and has missed the cut twice. One reason to back JT this week is his recent form. He won the PGA Championship, then finished 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open two starts later. However, Thomas did struggle at The Country Club last week finishing T37. JT just W/D.
Patrick Cantlay (+1400), has been playing some great golf as of late that feels under the radar. In his last five starts, these have been his finishing positions 2/ 1/ CUT/ T3/ T14. To be fair, that win came at the Zurich Open which is a team play event. Even with that said, in his last four stroke play events he has two two-5’s and one top-20. Cantlay has played in this event seven times before and has finished inside the top-20 in each his last four appearances.
Other previous winners in the field; Harris English (’21), Chez Reavie (’19), Jordan Spieth (’17), Russell Knox (’16), Kevin Streelman (’14), Marc Leishman (’12), J.J. Henry (’06), and Stewart Cink (’97,’08).
Notable Withdraws: Will Zalatoris, Patrick Rodgers, Russell Henley, Erik Van Rooyen, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses For Courses:
Brooks Koepka (+4000), has finished inside the top-20 in three of his last four appearances at TPC River Highlands. Two of those finishes were actually inside the top-10. Brooks last played in this event in 2021, where he recorded his best finish at the Travelers Championship, T5. Brooks just W/D.
Brian Harman (+4000), has finished inside the top-8 in three of his last four starts at TPC River Highlands. In his lone finish outside the top-8 during that span, he missed the cut in 2020.
Jason Day (+8000), has finished inside the top-12 in three of his last four starts at TPC River Highlands. He’s made the cut in each of his last five starts on Tour and finished inside the top-20 twice during that span.
Kevin Kisner (+10000), has finished inside the top-15 in two of his last three Travelers appearances. In his lone finish outside the top-15, he missed the cut in 2020. While he does have a great course history, Kisner has missed the cut in each of his last four starts on Tour.
Zach Johnson (+25000), has finished inside the top-25 in each of his last three appearances at the Travelers Championship. He finished 19th in 2018, missed the tournament in 2019, and finished T11 and T25 in the past two years. Just like Kisner, be careful playing Zach Johnson this week as he has missed the cut in three of his last four starts. However, in his most recent tournament he finished T23 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Trending Towards a Win at the Travelers:
Sam Burns (+1800), has improved on his finishing position every year in his last three Travelers Championships. In 2019, he made his debut appearance and finished 43rd. The following year he finished T24 and in 2021, he finished T13.
In the 2021-22 season, Burns has won three PGA Tour events including the Sanderson Farms Championship, the Valspar Championship, and most recently the Charles Schwab Challenge. Last week he finished T27th in the U.S. Open but, in the week prior he finished T4 at the RBC Canadian Open. His game’s been absolutely incredible this year and if his ball-striking is on, he should have a great week.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Harris English (-13)
Price: 45-1
2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
Price: 30-1
2019: Chez Reavie (-17)
Price: 70-1
2018: Bubba Watson (-17)
Price: 33-1
2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
Price: 10-1
2016: Russell Knox (-14)
Price: 50-1
Picks (Outright):
Xander Schauffele (+2200) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Xander has been great in his past four starts finishing inside the top-20 in each event. He’s played at the Travelers three times before making the cut twice. In 2017, he finished T14 and in 2020, he placed T20. Schauffele was not a participant in last years event.
Currently, he ranks inside the top-38 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. His putting can be iffy sometimes but in he’s gained strokes on the green in four of his last five starts.
Jordan Spieth (+2500) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Spieth won the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town earlier this season, a course comp for this week. Since winning that event, he has yet to miss a cut finishing inside the top-40 in each of those tournaments. Spieth won the Travelers back in 2017 and hasn’t captured that same success since at TPC River Highlands.
Jordan’s one of the best players in the world and ranks highly in nearly every strokes gained category besides putting. In terms of SG: Putting he ranks 151st but has gained strokes on the green in three of his last five events. Oddly enough, when he won the RBC Heritage he was awful with the flat stick losing half a stroke putting. When he does gain strokes putting, he obviously does much better but we’ve seen him rely on other parts of his game to win.
Sungjae Im (+3500) – DraftKings (Sungjae Im just W/D)
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
I was on Sungjae last week and of course he misses his first cut for the first time in nine events. Last week, he lost strokes on approach but, gained strokes in every other category. Sungjae Im won the Shriners Children’s Open earlier this season and has nine top-20’s in individual stroke play tournaments since. He’s played in the Travelers twice before but, skipped last years event. In 2019, he finished T21 and in 2020, he finished 58th.
He ranks inside the top-12 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. His two areas of concern are his approach play (which was saw last week) and putting. Despite that, Im has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments and has gained strokes on the green in two of those events. His approach play drives his success so if he can find those greens, he should do well. Even if he can’t his short game should allow him to compete.
Mito Pereira (+5000) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Mito will be making his Travelers Championship debut this week. He struggled last week at The Country Club missing the cut. Prior to that, he had finished inside the top-20 in each of his last four starts.
He ranks inside the top-12 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, and SG: T2G. The flaw of his game this year has been his play around and on the green. Despite missing the cut last week, Mito has gained strokes around the green in six of his last seven starts. In terms of putting, he’s gained strokes in his last two of his last four starts. We’ve seen playing players making their debut at TPC River Highlands win before. If Mito can put together a performance like he did at Southern Hills, I like his chances this week to capture his first victory on Tour.
[LIVE ADD – POST RD 1] Scottie Scheffler +1900 – FanDuel (Risk 0.23 to win 4.37)
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.08 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Joaquin Niemann (+165) – PointsBet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
Niemann won his second PGA Tour event earlier this season at Riviera. He’s played here at TPC River Highlands three times before. His best finish coming in 2019 when he finished T6. In his two other appearances, he finished T63 and T36.
Currently, he ranks inside the top-24 in SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: ATG, and SG: T2G. What he struggles is with his putting. In the beginning of the season, he lost strokes on the green in three of his first four events. If we look at a more recent sample size, he has gained strokes in that category in five of his last six starts. He lost nearly a stroke putting at the U.S. Open but still managed to finish T47.
Brian Harman (+175) – Caesars
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
We played Harman last week for T40 and going into Sunday, I thought it was pretty sure thing. However, he decided to shoot 8 over to finish T43. I’m backing him against this week at a course he’s had success at in the past. He’s has finished inside the top-8 in three of his last four starts at TPC River Highlands.
Unlike most of my other placements this week, Harman does struggle with his iron play. He currently ranks 120th strokes gained on approach. After losing strokes in this category in his first five starts this season, he has turned it around and gained strokes on approach in four of his last five events. Outside of approach, he ranks inside the top-66 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, and SG: Putting. One area of his game that should aid him this week is his accuracy off the tee as the rough is particularly long.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Denny McCarthy (+115) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
When talking about a guy trending upward, you have to mention Denny McCarthy. He’s made the cut in his last five tournaments. During that span, he has never finished worse than T47. Last week he finished T7 at the U.S. Open and in the week prior, he was T5 at the Memorial. McCarthy has played in the Travelers four times before, with his best finish of T47 coming in his debut in 2018. In 2021, he finished T73 at TPC River Highlands.
McCarthy isn’t a great player off the tee and on approach. He ranks 109th in SG: OTT but he’s extremely accurate which has been a path to success at this event. However, in his last four tournaments he’s gained strokes on approach. Last week at the U.S. Open, he also gained a quarter of a stroke off the tee. Where he does excel is his short game and his putting. He’s 30th in SG: ATG and 6th in SG: Putting. The last time McCarthy lost strokes putting was at the Sony Open earlier this season.
Joel Dahmen (+120) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Joel Dahmen came out hot in the U.S. Open going -5 after the first two rounds but would falter a bit in the later rounds to finish T10. He’s made the cut in his past three events and has improved on his placement in each. Dahmen has a solid course history at TPC River Highlands as well. He made his tournament debut in 2017 and would go on to finish T63. The following year he missed the cut but in 2019 he finished T43 and in 2020 he finished 20th. In 2021, Dahmen was not a participant in the Travelers Championship.
Dahmen’s a great player off the tree and on approach. He ranks 67th in SG: OTT and 54th in SG: APP. In his last eight events he’s gained strokes on approach. Off the tee he’s gained strokes in three of his last five starts. While his putting has been a concern in the past, he’s gained strokes in his category in each of his last five tournaments. Based off the way his play has been trending in general and at TPC River Highlands, I think Dahmen can crack the top-40.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Travelers Championship: 5.08 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
I started the week off with a strong 3-0, +3.05u night and now find myself +13.74u over the last 43 days. I’m rolling with 4 plays for tonight with a loaded slate at our disposal. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
Rangers SP Martin Perez held a sub-2.00 ERA at one point earlier this month, but unsurprisingly, the lefty has regressed mightily over his last 2 starts. He surrendered 12 hits and 6 runs to the White Sox a few weekends ago and then allowed an unimpressive 8 hits to a historically bad Tigers lineup his last time out. Considering Perez holds a 4.53 career ERA across 11 MLB seasons, I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to fall hard after a fast start to the season. The Phillies present Perez a very tough matchup; Philly leads the league in OPS on the road vs left-handed pitching(.906 OPS). Prior this season, Perez’s lowest HR/9 total since 2017 sat at 1.12 HR/9; after limiting the long ball for much of the season, he has allowed a homer in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Phillies are a top 5 slugging team in the league, and given how well they’ve fared in this spot, I’d expect them to do damage tonight. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson made himself a ton of money from his success as a Ranger last year, specifically because of how well he pitched in this ballpark. The Rangers offense has struggled against righties all year, coming into tonight ranked 26th in OPS vs RHP. Considering Gibson is coming off his best start start of the season(8 IP, 1 ER vs Marlins), I’d expect him to continue his success tonight in a ballpark he’s pitched great in. I don’t trust the Phillies’ bullpen enough to make this a full game wager, but I like this matchup for them early in the game.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays ML(-130) @ White Sox–7:10 PM CT
White Sox SP Dylan Cease might hold a sub-3.00 ERA, but he has gotten absolutely rocked in his tougher matchups this season. In his 3 starts against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox(all at home), Cease has allowed a combined 20 runs. The Blue Jays offense seems to be rounding into form after a 10-run output against the Yankees on Sunday and a 7-run performance against these White Sox yesterday. Cease is going to rack up K’s regardless of who he’s facing, but he’s proven to fold against top-of-the-line offenses this season. Blue Jays SP Kevin Gausman has struggled at times over his past 4 starts, but I think tonight presents a tremendous “buy low” opportunity. While his ERA sits at 3.21, Gausman’s FIP(expected ERA) comes in at an astonishingly low 1.74. When you consider he’s allowing just 1.36 BB/9 and 0.25 HR/9 while striking out over a batter per inning, it’s not hard to see why Gausman is an easy back. The White Sox got after a familiar arm in Jose Berrios last night, but this is a team that has struggled to figure out righties all season(29th in OPS vs righties at home). Getting Tim Anderson back helps their cause, but this is still a depleted lineup without 3-4 everyday players. While you might get a better price on playing the Blue Jays F5 -0.5, fading the White Sox bullpen is too good for me to pass up. The White Sox are currently without their closer Liam Hendriks as well as set-up man Aaron Bummer; we saw their two only viable arms(Graveman and Kelly) throw last night. This has been a bottom 10 bullpen in the league this year, and I think they enter this matchup in an even weaker form than that might suggest. I think the Blue Jays bounce back and take care of business tonight.
The Brewers starting pitching has been completely depleted; with Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Aaron Ashby all on the IL, Craig Counsell has to turn to Chi Chi Gonzalez to make tonight’s start. Gonzalez has proven time and again he is undeserving of a spot in a major league rotation; he held a 6.46 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 18 starts last season and has been shelled in each of his 2 starts this season. The Cardinals were shut out last night by Corbin Burnes, but I think that speaks much more to Burnes’ greatness than the Cardinals’ inadequacies offensively. Don’t take my word for it: After getting shut out by Burnes just last month, the Cardinals responded with 6 runs and a win the next day against the Padres. St Louis will have plenty of chances to put this game away early. Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty looked rusty in his season debut last week, but I’m expecting a much better result this time out. Flaherty delivered 0 run performances in his 2nd start of the season in 2021 and 2019, and he’s shown enough for me to believe he has the stuff to beat this Milwaukee lineup. The Brewers offense can certainly take advantage of mediocre-below average pitching, but I do not trust them when stepping up in competition. This line is very telling already, but I don’t think it’s adjusted enough for how much of a pitching mismatch this really is. There’s no reason to include bullpens in this play; let’s isolate the matchup we feel best about.
Braves SP Spencer Strider was a menace out of the bullpen earlier this season, but I do not think he will be as dominant as a SP as time goes on. His 4 starts up to this point have come against the D-Backs, Rockies, Pirates, and Nationals, so the verdict is still out on how he stacks up against stiffer competition as a starter. Additionally, the Giants fare better against right-handed pitching and have gotten many of their lefty bats(save LaMonte Wade) back healthy over the past couple of weeks. Considering Strider is also walking 4.3 batters per 9 innings, I don’t think he’s as stable of a SP as this line prices him as. Giants SP Anthony DeSclafani has been hurt for much of the season, but this line is downright a slap in the face considering he accumulated a 3.17 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts last year. The Braves are on the heels of a 14 game winning streak but have cooled off considerably in recent days, scoring just 11 runs across their last 4 games. The Braves hold a sizable bullpen advantage, which will keep this a F5 play. Strider’s upside paired with DeSclafani not having his feet wet this season keeps this a sprinkle, but there is simply too much value on the Giants for me to pass up.
Nice day yesterday in MLB, but I still can’t believe the Avalanche just DIDN’T SCORE after halfway through the 2nd period. Killing me, but we move on. Another nice snag in foreign basketball, too. Let’s keep building our unit counts!
MLB Picks:
Rockies/Marlins under 8 (-110), 1.1 units to win 1
This is a tough game to handicap since both of these teams are in positions for more pedestrian offense, but they’re also due for some positive regression and, at first glance, the pitching contest isn’t all that intimidating. Looking deeper, Feltner has been nice and steady this season and seems to be more comfortable at the mound. Although all of his stats aren’t pristine, he doesn’t allow all that many big slugs, his walk rate is decent, his fastball is above-average, and his predictive stats have him staying under a 4.00 ERA on the season. Castana is a young gun who’s looked crisp in a few showings on the mound and he’s never allowed too many big hits. On top of that, Miami can’t find a run lately and Colorado, as we know, ain’t the same offense on the road. I like the under.
Mets (+113), 1 unit to win 1.13 units
Trevor Williams had a horrendous start to the season but has settled in tremendously since the start of May. The Astros won’t be an easy team to contain but right now the Mets are hitting against every team and it ain’t like Urquidy is untouchable either. For + units at the rate they’re winning, we’re going with NYM to keep on getting Ws.
Jays/White Sox under 9 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
Both of these units just continue to partake in high-scoring, wild contests and if this doesn’t set up for a regression to the mean, I don’t know what does. Gausman and Cease are consistent and elite in their command and should throw off the over-confident bats of both lineups. As long as the bullpens hold up, this one could fall way under the given total. An alt-total, IMO, not a bad idea.
D-Backs/Padres under 7, 1.1 units to win 1
Apparently I like a lot of unders today. I think this game looks a lot like last night’s contest. A few hits here and there, but two pitchers who can keep scoring opportunities under control against two offenses that are hardly intimidating at this juncture. Gallen has been studly and Manae is coming off a bad performance at Wrigley but he’s due to improve – after all, his first start of the season was a stifling, 7 inning performance against these same Diamondbacks.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
France – LNB Pro A
Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. AS Monaco, 1H over 78 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
The first team is sometimes named ASVEL Basket for short, in case you can’t find this game at your sportsbook. When Lyon-V has a down game or a loss, they tend to play with offensive-fire in the next contest, which usually means points. Yesterday’s contest went at a molasses-pace in the first 2 quarters of play. We think this one will pick up and become more of an offensive-showcase; that’s the pattern we see, anyway.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to win their first game of the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. In Game 1 they were able to force OT but, in Game 2 they were outplayed in every aspect losing 7-0. I’ll break down Game 3 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 2-0)
Side Line Movement (COL: -110/ TBL: -110)
The Colorado Avalanche closed as home favorites in the first two games. We now head back to Tampa, where Game 3 has opened as a pick em’. Throughout the entire playoffs at home, this is the shortest line that the Tampa Bay Lightning have been offered at. From a Colorado perspective, this is the shortest line that they’ve been offered at throughout the entire post season.
Total Line Movement (6.0: +100/-120)
The total for the first two games was set at 6 and it went over in both matchups. For Game 3, the total hasn’t moved at all. In Games 1 and 2 the total was juiced to the over but, in Game 3 that’s reversed.
Game 3 Breakdown
The Avalanche head to Tampa Bay with a 2-0 series lead, after dominating then Lightning in Game 2 winning, 7-0. So far, the Avalanche have yet to lose a game on the road so, Tampa Bay will have their hands full in Game 3 as they cannot afford to go down 3-0. Good news for the Bolts is that have a 7-1 home record this post season.
Turning to Game 3, the Lightning need to make several adjustments. The main adjustment being how can they limit Colorado offensively. To be fair, it may not be possible, but we’ve seen Jon Cooper in past playoffs be able make the necessary adjustments in order to win. The second is how to spark their own offense. Colorado has done a great job of limiting shots, specifically high danger shots, against Kuemper in the first two games. In the first two games of this series they’ve only been able to record 23 and 16 shots on goal. If they want to have a chance, that number needs to be around 27/28. Darcy Kuemper is not Andrei Vasilevskiy and when we look at his home and away splits this post season, there’s a noticeable difference. In Game 3, I think we really see Tampa Bay try to push the pace offensively.
For Colorado, they just need to keep doing exactly what they’ve done in the first two games of this series. They’ve held Tampa Bay in check offensively, limited the shots on Kuemper, and have created scoring chances off turnovers.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg)
COL Injuries: N. Kadri (DOUBT- Thumb), A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-165/+135)
Game 1 Team Total: 3
Game 2 Team Total: 0
The Tampa Bay Lightning have only gone over this number in once in this series. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.63 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 2.86 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-150/+120)
Game 1 Team Total: 4
Game 2 Team Total: 7
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in both Game 1 and Game 2. On the road this post season they average 5.14 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.00 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number in four of five.
Nikita Kucherov 1.5 Points (+175/-225)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Nikita Kucherov has gone under this total in each of his last five games. However, he has recorded over 1.5 points in two of his last five home games.
Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number in four of five. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-170/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he’s hit as this same rate.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 32.5 Saves (-105/-120)
Game 1 Saves: 34
Game 2 Saves: 23
In Vasilevskiy’s last five games, he has only recorded more than 32.5 saves twice. At home this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 33.00 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.26 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 27.5 Saves (-110/-110)
Game 1 Saves: 20
Game 2 Saves: 16
Kuemper’s has not gone over this number in his last six starts. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 28.00 shots against. At home this post season, the Bolts average 34.13 shots on goal for.
Picks
[1u] Colorado Avalanche/ Tampa Bay Lightning Under 6.0 (-120) – DraftKings
As the series shifts to Tampa Bay, I think we start to see more of a defensive play style. The over has hit in the first two games but, I really like the Under tonight. Most books have the total set at 6.0 juiced to the under with a few other books having tonight’s total listed at 5.5. If Tampa Bay want’s to get into this series, they’ll have to be better defensively. They’ve proven that they can shut teams down at home and looking at Vasilevskiy’s splits he’s played much better at Amalie Arena this post season.
[0.50u] Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+135) – DraftKings
For the first time in the 2022 Playoffs Nikita Kucherov was held without a single shot on goal. This happened twice during the regular season and in the following games, he recorded over 4 shots on goal. We know Tampa Bay is desperate right now and they’ll need him to step up tonight in order for them to have a shot.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
953 Cubs F5 ML (+105)* at Pirates/ F5 OV 4.5 (+100)*
Pirates are facing the Cubs for the 10th time (5-4 SU series) this season but the first in a month since it has been speculated that the ball may have changed. We’re seeing some reverse line movement with the majority of money on the over, yet the total is down from 8.5 to 8. Some sharp money has come on the under and it makes sense with this series going 1-7-1 O/U. Cubs’ SP Kilian will be starting for the 3rd time this season and had a bad last outing against the Padres, walking 5 with 0 K’s in 4 innings, after a decent debut vs the Cardinals. Brubaker’s numbers aren’t great as he can give up runs in spurts but has given the Pirates 5 or more innings of work in 9 of his 13 starts.
I understand the total coming down here with the Pirates batting the worst vs RHP and 28th in runs scored. But we do have the ML moving toward the Cubs and both team totals juiced to the over at 3.5. So I’ll look for the Cubs to start well and the F5 to get over the higher 4.5 total at +100 in case we see a blow up from either of these pitchers as the F5 has gone 8-1 O/U in this series. Brubaker has faced the Cubs twice now where they put up runs on him both times and Cubs are batting 13th vs RHP. Average F5 total in this series just over 7 runs and those games were mostly before the speculated ball change.
Monday card has the 100% National League Game of the Month and our Highest Rated Stanley Cup Finals Play in game 3. MLB Totals Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Over 9 runs in the Toronto at Chicago game at 8:10 eastern. Toronto rallied to beat the Yankees and have played over the last 4 after scoring 5+ runs,7 of 8 in game 1 of a series and 12 of 15 vs a righty. Chicago has gone over 6 of 7 vs A.L. East teams and 8 of 10 off a loss. From the database we note. Road favorites off a home dog win that scored 5+ runs are 87% to the over since 2004 if they lost 2 back at home and the opponent tonight is off a road loss. Toronto has gone over the last 5 on the road with Berrios. Lynn for Chicago makes his 2nd start as he builds up are strength. His first start he allowed 10+ hits in 4 innings. Look for this game to play over the total. On Monday we open another big week with our 100% National League Game of the Month and our highest Rated NHL Cup Finals play in game 3 backed with a huge game 3 specific system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the MLB Comp play. Play Toronto and Chicago over the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
