Like these early games more than I thought. Putting 0.5 units on KC to beat Houston, the price is just too good right now, and I like the over in Pitt/CIN. Officially:
R. Contreras has a worse xERA than his actual, even after his horrific showing against Milwaukee recently. Minor had some unlucky scenarios leading up to this game but he’s far from his elite years, it’s been a steady decline since 2019, and Pittsburgh can find contact against less capable pitchers. If you look at their splits, generally elite throwers give the Pirates issues, but weaker arms enable more consistent production for their lineup.
A disappointing 0-1 Wednesday brings my MLB season record to 92-90-3, -0.42u. I’m back with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back and get ourselves back into the green on the season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 ML(-110) vs Angels–6:05 PM CT
While the numbers might pair each of these SP’s as equals, I see a massive discrepancy. Orioles SP Jordan Lyles has thrown 1,240 innings in the big leagues, while Angels SP Chase Silseth has made just 5 career big league starts. Even more concerning, Silseth threw just 41 innings in the minor leagues before being called up to the big club this season; he was drafted just last year. Silseth is far too inexperienced to be counted on at the major league level, and this is a tougher matchup than you might think.
The Orioles have won 4 straight games, averaging 5.5 runs/game in that span. They got after righties Dane Dunning and Spencer Howard of the Rangers this week, and I think they are plenty capable of getting after Silseth today. The Angels won yesterday behind another gem from Shohei Ohtani, but prior to that, they had lost their previous 4 games and failed to put up more than 2 runs in any of those losses. On the road against right-handed pitching, the Angels rank a measly 25th in wRC+; the lack of depth in that lineup has really started to take its toll. Lyles has done an excellent job of limiting the long ball at Camden Yards this year, and I think he takes advantage of a weak Angels lineup in this one.
I price these bullpens pretty equally, but I do have concern over the Orioles’ back-end after they’ve been needed each of the past 4 days. As such, I will isolate the F5 and roll with the home team that’s sneakily played winning baseball over the last month.
*MLB(1u): Yankees F5 TT OVER 2.5(-115) @ Red Sox–6:10 PM CT
Red Sox SP Josh Winckowski has only made 5 career big league starts, and none have come in particularly tough spots. His 3 home starts this year have come against the Orioles(gave up 4 ER), Tigers, and Athletics. To say this is a step up in competition would be a massive understatement. While his ERA sits at 3.12, a 1.38 WHIP is a clear indicator that the 2022 version of Winckowski is not a sub-4.00 ERA starter in the big leagues. While the righty does produce a lot of ground balls, his hard contact rate of nearly 30% is another cause for concern in this matchup.
The Yankees also broke out last night with a 16 run performance in their matchup with the Pirates. While the offense wasn’t in great current form prior to last night, this is still a very easy offense to trust. On the road vs right-handed pitching this season, the Yankees rank 1st in wRC+ by a very comfortable margin.
I like the Yankees to carry over some momentum into today and take advantage of a young arm that has yet to face a top-of-the-line order at this level.
*MLB(1u): Rockies/Diamondbacks F5 OVER 5(-120)–8:40 PM CT
This is perhaps the worst SP matchup of the night. D-Backs SP Dallas Keuchel has been the worst pitcher in baseball this year, carrying a 8.27 ERA and 2.10 WHIP into tonight’s start. Keuchel is not only allowing 1.5 hits/innings, but uncharacteristically, he has developed an issue with control as well(5.66 BB/9). To make matters worse, this is the second time he’ll have to face the Rockies lineup over the last week. Colorado has always swung the bats well at home, but they’ve also handled lefties well away from their home ballpark this year(107 wRC+ in this role).
Rockies SP Austin Gomber might not have quite as bad of numbers as Keuchel, but he’s still among one of the worst SP’s in the league(6.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). You can’t blame his failure on having to pitch at Coors Field either; he held a 1.44 WHIP on the road last year and has an ERA over 6.00 on the road this season. This is also his 2nd straight start vs the same lineup after he faced the D-Backs last week. The D-Backs have quietly scored 6.5 runs/game over their last 9 games and have handled left-handed pitching well over that span.
Given how poor each bullpen is, I couldn’t talk anybody off of the full game Over. With that said, I feel best about isolating each of these SP’s and seeing them crumble early in this game.
Okay, now here are the other premiums. Happy Thirsty Thurz, all!
MLB Picks:
Mets -153, to win 1 unit
This is a really tough spot for the Marlins, traveling from Miami to NY after a disappointing loss and facing Trevor Williams on the mound, who’s coming off his worst performance of the season against Texas last week. Williams should button up at home and while Castano is good, the Mets are looking for vengeance after he snagged a 3-2 in Miami against them last time.
Tigers under 2.5 runs (+125), to win 1.25 units
White Sox -1.5 (-115) to win 1 unit
Detroit is coming off a 4-0 series sweep of Cleveland, man those Guardians are frustrating, and now travel to Chicago all fat and sassy to take on Dylan Cease, one of the most consistent aces in baseball. Cease has been electric for the Sox and his marks have only improved as the season progresses. Love this spot for Chicago and for their negative regression as well.
Foreign Basketball:
FIBA World Cup
Spain vs. Ukraine: Spain 1H -3 (-115)
Spain is clearly the better team and has out-classed Ukraine by margin in 2/4 of their matchups, winning 3/4. Their two most recent wins started with big leads at halftime and they cruised to a win in the second half, albeit in less inspiring second halves. Since the full game line is now a big but reasonable -6.5, we’ll take the 1H for the Spaniards to gain an early, impressive lead.
CFL Picks:
Stampeders/Elks over 50.5 (just a lean now)
Elks +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
As long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. The Elks are in a better position, at home after a loss, to at least keep this close. We’ll put a unit on the Elks and lean over.
Sending this first since these matches are starting shortly:
Parlay: Maria/Jabeur over 18.5 + Simona Halep wins
1.5 units to win 2.2 units
Maria is a fighter and although Jabeur is clearly the better player, their friendship and Maria’s fight should lengthen this contest. Realistically it only has to go two sets (6-3, 6-4) for this to go over, so I like our odds.
On the second leg of the parlay, I just expect Halep to continue her dominant run. Her and Jabeur seem destined to clash in the Finals and Rybakina is leveling up big time taking on Simona.
My Free play for Tuesday is on the Phillies/Nationals game in Philly at 6:05 Central.
Josiah Gray was one of the major trade pieces to come over along with Keibert Ruiz from the Dodgers in the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer deal and he gets the ball for the Nats tonight. Gray has shown massive improvement over the course of the season. After allowing 19 Home Runs over 10 starts to begin the year he left May with a 5.08 ERA. His four June starts were spectacular including one against these Phillies. He allowed just 2 Home Runs across 24 innings while striking out 28 batters and rocking a 1.13 ERA in those June starts. Last trip out he got rocked by the Marlins on Friday for 6 Earned runs. So which pitcher will show up tonight?
To answer that question I am looking strictly at the Phillies tonight. Even without Bryce Harper in the lineup the Phillies continue rake. Since he went down the Phils are averaging 6.5 Runs per game. The wind will be calm in Philly on Wednesday, maybe even blowing in slightly, however it will be 85 degrees and humid at first pitch. Citizen’s Bank Park has a slight positive metric for Home Runs and I think Gray serves some up tonight as his ground ball rate is only 27.4% while his fly ball rate is at 48.8%. Look for Philly to enact some revenge on Gray.
I am on the Phillies team total over 4.5 Runs -115.
Coming off a 1-1 split, I sit at 92-89-3, +0.78u on the MLB season. With a pretty tough slate to work with, I’m sticking with a lone play for this afternoon and backing a guy that’s treated us well this year. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(-120) vs Cubs–1:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! While that may sound monotonous, we are now 6-1 backing Burnes on the season after an easy winner last weekend. Today, I see another huge mismatch on the mound. Burnes comes into tonight sporting a 2.36 ERA and 0.92 WHIP and is allowing just 6 hits per 9 innings while striking out over 11 per 9 innings. He’ll face a Cubs lineup that ranks below league average in wRC+ vs righties away from Wrigley Field. While the Cubbies have recently got a few key bats back off the IL and were able to put up 8 runs in last night’s game, how they fared off of Jason Alexander has zero bearing as to how they’ll fare off Burnes today. Burnes threw 7 innings of 2 run ball against the Cubs in Milwaukee earlier this season, and he’ll be relieved by arguably the best 7th-8th-9th inning trio in baseball(Boxberger, Williams, Hader).
Cubs SP Adrian Sampson is a bit of a journeyman; while the righty is 30 years old, he’s thrown just over 200 innings in the big leagues. During that time, he’s put up an ERA north of 5.00 and a WHIP at 1.39; this is not a guy I’m afraid to go against. This is also a pretty tough matchup considering how well the Brewers have seen righties in their home ballpark this season(109 wRC+). The Cubs’ bullpen has underperformed all season and carries an ugly 1.32 WHIP into this afternoon’s matchup.
I’ve had success trusting Burnes all year, and this is another spot where Milwaukee should win comfortably. I don’t mind laying a bit of a premium considering how successful this angle has been for me. I’d play this up to -130.
The Wednesday MLB Power System play is on Toronto at 3:40 eastern. Oakland fits a negative 1-13 scoring system here today. The are 0-5 of late on Wednesdays and have lost 11 of 14 vs A.L. East teams.. The Jays are 6-0 in game 2 of a series and have won 4 of 5 vs a starter with a 1.30 or worse WHIP. J. Kaprelian goes for Oakland and he is 0-3 art home with a 6.45 Era and he has a 5+ era in days games. Berrios has not been great this year but he should do well here against a light hitting Oakland team. Toronto has won 13 of 18 here. Play on the Blue Jays. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
SU: 1-13
Aug 07, 2011 recap Sun 2011 home Orioles Alfredo Simon-R Blue Jays Ricky Romero-L 2-7 -5 L 0.5 O 5-13 1-0 0-5 130.0 8.5 9
Apr 30, 2014 recap Wed 2014 home Twins Kyle Gibson-R Dodgers Zack Greinke-R 4-6 -2 L 2.5 O 12-12 1-0 1-5 150.0 7.5 9
May 22, 2016 recap Sun 2016 home Twins Phil Hughes-R Blue Jays Marcus Stroman-R 1-3 -2 L -5.0 U 3-9 1-0 0-3 155.0 9.0 9
Sep 21, 2016 recap Wed 2016 home Padres Luis Perdomo-R Diamondbacks Zack Greinke-R 2-3 -1 L -2.5 U 4-5 0-0 1-1 117.0 7.5 9
Sep 19, 2017 recap Tue 2017 home Reds Jackson Stephens-R Cardinals Jack Flaherty-R 7-8 -1 L 5.5 O 8-8 1-0 4-2 100.0 9.5 10
Mar 30, 2018 recap Fri 2018 home Rays Blake Snell-L Red Sox David Price-L 0-1 -1 L -6.5 U 4-7 0-0 0-1 145.0 7.5 9
Jul 23, 2018 recap Mon 2018 home Royals Heath Fillmyer-R Tigers Francisco Liriano-L 4-5 -1 L -0.5 U 13-10 0-0 3-1 100.0 9.5 9
Aug 11, 2018 recap Sat 2018 home Tigers Francisco Liriano-L Twins Kyle Gibson-R 3-4 -1 L -1.5 U 9-9 0-0 1-3 125.0 8.5 9
Oct 08, 2018 recap Mon 2018 home Braves Mike Foltynewicz-R Dodgers Rich Hill-L 2-6 -4 L 0.0 P 6-8 0-1 1-4 135.0 8.0 9
Sep 12, 2019 recap Thu 2019 home Mariners Justin Dunn-R Reds Tyler Mahle-R 5-11 -6 L 7.0 O 11-11 0-0 3-6 105.0 9.0 9
Jul 30, 2020 recap Thu 2020 home Tigers Ivan Nova-R Royals Brady Singer-R 3-5 -2 L -2.0 U 8-13 1-0 0-3 125.0 10.0 9
Aug 10, 2020 recap Mon 2020 home Red Sox Ryan Brasier-R Rays Ryan Yarbrough-L 7-8 -1 L 5.5 O 12-16 1-0 3-3 116.0 9.5 9
Apr 27, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Diamondbacks Zac Gallen-R Dodgers Julio Urias-L 3-1 2 W -4.0 U 2-5 0-2 2-0 160.0 8.0 9
Jul 02, 2022 recap Sat 2022 home Guardians Kirk McCarty-L Yankees Gerrit Cole-R 4-13 -9 L 8.5 O 5-14 1-0 2-9 230.0 8.5 9
Jul 06, 2022 recap Wed 2022 home Athletics James Kaprielian-R Blue Jays Jose Berrios-R 160.0 8.0
Chris goes over the concept of propaganda and how it leaks its way into the world of sports betting, how to avoid incorporating it into your handicapping, and examples of where it’s been proliferated in sports media. He also gives a few FREE PICKS!
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Hopefully you all got the early premium email last night at Wimbledon. I like those plays a lot. Onto a full slate of MLB and more today, and fuck the WNBA (ha). Our CFL pick changed, too, now that the line is out.
MLB Picks:
Tigers (+148), to win 1.48 units
The Detroit offense has improved steadily over the past month, becoming a top 10 team in RBIs and a top 5 team in batting average over the past week. Their wOBA is just outside the top 10, too. Pineda had one bad game recently against KC but before that, he managed a 3.26 ERA and commanded strong performances against the Yankees and Orioles. Shane Bieber is coming into his own but there’s something fishy that we still don’t trust. He’s allowing a steady 3 runs per start to whoever he faces, not bad, but his last start against Detroit was one of his better performances all season. I think the Tigers step up and hit aggressively to sweep this series – value on the home dog, again.
Cubs/Brewers first five over 4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Burnes and the Brewers can get BURNED by the Cubs, as evidenced in Corbin’s 2 previous losses against the Cubbies earlier this season, and Chicago almost always plays their NL Central rival feisty and aggressively. Two viable pitchers but the over is juiced for a reason and we agree – I expect some unexpected early points here.
Blue Jays -1.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units and
Jays/A’s over 8 (-110), to win 1 unit
Time for Toronto to get off their ass, don’t you think? And against the 1-5 pedestrian James Kaprielian? Probably a good spot. Bats- we command you to come alive, it should be too easy with this setup.
Orioles win (-105), to win 1 unit and
Rangers/Orioles over 9 (-115), to win 1 unit
For many of the same reasons as yesterday’s wagers, there’s a lot to like about Baltimore’s continued run at home, scoring at will against a bad Texas defense, and an over since neither team seems to have any insight into stopping the other lineup. That being said, we’re betting on the O’s because I trust Spencer Watkins slightly more – Glenn Otto has looked BAD and his forecasted numbers don’t look any better.
Wimbledon:
Tomljanovic/Rybakina over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
These two ladies are very evenly matched and if there’s any pattern we’re seeing, it’s that most of these games towards the end of the tournament are going longer and are getting more competitive. Lots of new blood without Serena and other former champions so it’s bound to happen. Rybakina should win but not confident enough in that- that’s what makes an over even more likely.
Halep -3.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Halep is the best women’s player left and while Anisimova is probably the best looking player left, that doesn’t get you very far at Wimbledon. Probably a quick and commanding win for Halep tomorrow.
Garin/Kyrgios over 37 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Kyrgios is very talented, has an unreal serve, and loves to beat himself on the court. Dude is so overly emotional and impulsive that almost all of his matches, especially against prime competition, should go over. Garin’s had a tough slate of opponents and he just keeps hanging in. I love this so go over.
CFL Picks:
Stampeders/Elks over 50.5 (just a lean now)
Elks +3.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
As long as Calgary has Bo Levi Mitchell at QB and he stays healthy, this is a team that can score points. Last time the Elks nearly beat the Stampeders and had little issue scoring as well. The Elks are in a better position, at home after a loss, to at least keep this close. We’ll put a unit on the Elks and lean over.
Did you all see how we lost that 1st five bet between Seattle/SD? Lol… some of these bad beats are pretty insane.
On top of that, I went 3-0 in Wimbledon and won quite a bit of coin but I’ve hesitated giving you tennis bets because of how shitty that went at first, too. So let’s try this again, since I really like these bets heading into tomorrow morning and I could see some of these lines moving against us.
Wimbledon:
Tomljanovic/Rybakina over 21.5 (-115), to win 1.5 units
These two ladies are very evenly matched and if there’s any pattern we’re seeing, it’s that most of these games towards the end of the tournament are going longer and are getting more competitive. Lots of new blood without Serena and other former champions so it’s bound to happen. Rybakina should win but not confident enough in that- that’s what makes an over even more likely.
Halep -3.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Halep is the best women’s player left and while Anisimova is probably the best looking player left, that doesn’t get you very far at Wimbledon. Probably a quick and commanding win for Halep tomorrow.
Garin/Kyrgios over 37 (-115), to win 1.5 units
Kyrgios is very talented, has an unreal serve, and loves to beat himself on the court. Dude is so overly emotional and impulsive that almost all of his matches, especially against prime competition, should go over. Garin’s had a tough slate of opponents and he just keeps hanging in. I love this so go over.
