We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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AFC West
2021 Records
Kansas City 12-5/ Las Vegas 10-7/ LA Chargers 9-8/ Denver 7-10
Kansas City – The Chiefs have arrived at the realization that they will have to build through the draft now that Patrick Mahomes contract has kicked in at full dollars. They traded Tyreek Hill for a boat load of draft picks to try and rebuild a defense that lost a ton through free agency. Mahomes is still elite although he did have the worst season of his career in 2021. The Offensive Line is still solid for him, so I expect him to bounce back even with MVS being the primary replacement for Hill. Their front seven on defense actually may be slightly improved this year, but the secondary loses 3 out of 4 starters. The Chiefs spent 5 of their 10 draft picks on secondary help hoping to find NFL talent through sheer numbers. People are saying the Chiefs are going to lose control of the division this year. I am not one of those people. I have them winning a tie-breaker with LA by virtue of a better division record. As a Packers fan I have watched Aaron Rodgers keep them in contention year after year with high roster turnover. Granted he can’t win the big games anymore. Good Luck in the Playoffs Chiefs fans. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -130.
Los Angeles Chargers – The Bolts were an overtime tie away from making the playoffs in 2021, but the Raiders played to win in week 17 at the end of the game, and knocked them out. Justin Herbert took the first step in proving he is an elite NFL QB, and I think he only gets better in 2022. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are back and provide one of the top 1-2 punches at reciever in the NFL. Austin Ekeler is an elite 3 down back, and the offensive line is solid. The offense wasn’t the problem in 2022 as they scored the 5th most points in the NFL. The problem was the defense as they only finished with a +15 Point differential. They brought in JC Jackson to be their #1 Corner, and the big splash is Khalil Mack. If he has anything left in the tank pairing him up with Joey Bosa should provide this defense with a huge lift especially in passing situations. They also replaced a very week interior on the DL. This defense should be much improved in 2022. Vegas Win Projection 10 Juiced Over at -150
Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas made the playoffs and gave the AFC champs Cincinnati a solid game and have improved their team in the off-season. Adding Davonte Adams on as a target for Derek Carr is one of the biggest moves this off-season. Darren Waller should be back healthy which along with Hunter Renfrow gives the Raiders 3 legit guys who will create huge match-up problems for opposing defenses. I really like the addition of Chandler Jones on defense to pair up with Maxx Crosby as edge rushers. They need to create pressure as the secondary is at best average, and with the opposing gunslingers in this division they won’t hold up in the back end for long. My biggest question is Josh McDaniels, who spent 10 years back as an assistant after his first head coaching gig. Is he truly an offensive guru or did Brady just make him look good? I lean toward the Brady answer to that question, and I think Rich Bisaccia got a lot out of this team after the Gruden debacle. Vegas Win Projection 8.5 Juiced Over at -135
Denver Broncos – The Broncos won 7 games in 2021 thanks to an “elite” defense that allowed the third fewest point in the NFL. Add Russell Wilson and it looks like Denver could be a contender. That being said they played a very easy schedule, let go defensive guru Vic Fangio as coach, and gutted some of the defense. Even before the off season, the underlying defensive metrics were not great. They were brutal on third down, middle of the pack in EPA, and in takeaways and sacks, and couldn’t get off the field when they needed to stop the run when trailing late in games. Without Fangio’s magic I think this defense takes a big step backwards. On offense Wilson has some talent with Jerry Jeudy leading the way along with Cortland Sutton who looks to get back on track year 2 following his ACL injury. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should benefit from Wilson the most on this team as defenses wont be able to load up against the run. I’m also not crazy about Hackett as head coach. Much like McDaniels, his previous QB makes him look really good. Vegas Win Projection 10 Even Juice at -110.
2022 Projections
Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles 11-6
Las Vegas 10-7
Denver 9-8
AFC West Action:
I think this is the best division in football this year top to bottom, which is what I thought about the NFC West last year and look how that turned out.
Kansas City – No Action. Variable Schedule this year is Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay which means if they lose all 3 of those games this is likely a 9 or 10 win team.
Los Angeles – The head honcho here Kiev made a great call on LA in his preview, and I am riding it here. The Chargers have Jac, Hou, Sea, Cle, and Atl in the first 8 weeks. If they aren’t 6-2 by that point they will be a big disappointment. Play the Over 10 for 1 Unit and hedge back later to try and middle.
Las Vegas – Raiders are better than last year. Play the over 8.5 for 1.5 Units.
Denver- No Action, but lean under. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I’ve been burned by Russ before.
Also Taking a .5 Unit shot on Raiders to win division at +550.
The Sunday MLB Comp Play is on the Under 1.5 walks for Seattle starter George Kirby at 2:10 eastern today. Kitby has outstanding control and has just 10 walks on the year and has allowed no more than 1 in any of his 13 starts. We look for him to do well here in the finale against Houston and while we lean towards a Seattle win here. The play is under 1.5 walks for Kirby. Rob Vinciletti-
I bring in a record of 115-107-4, +4.36u into this Sunday slate and will be rolling with 2 plays to cap off the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Astros F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) vs Mariners–1:10 PM CT
Mariners SP George Kirby is a talented young arm with a seemingly bright future, but he is not ready for this moment. Kirby threw just 117 innings in the minor leagues before being called up, and even though he has made 5 road starts, 3 of those came against bottom-feeder teams. We saw him yield 5 ER in Boston early this year as well as 3 R in 4 innings against the Mets at Citi Field. This is a “rivalry” game of sorts that I don’t see Kirby acclimating well to with his lack of experience.
The Astros have really asserted their dominance over the Mariners here over the past week, winning 5 of their 6 meetings. They have averaged just under 6 runs/game in those matchups and hold the 2nd best wRC+ in the league vs righties in their home ballpark. I think this offense makes another statement in today’s game.
*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 5.5(+100) vs Royals–12:35 PM CT
Zack Greinke is rightfully a name that carries a lot of respect, but I’m not scared to play against him in this matchup. The 38-year old version of Greinke has stepped up horribly in his tougher road starts; he allowed 4 R in Toronto, 6 ER in Houston, 5 ER in Minnesota, and 5 ER in Colorado. Striking out merely 5 batters per 9 innings, I don’t like how Greinke’s recent fly ball trends play in a park like Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees haven’t been too profitable here in the month of July, but they seem to be entering one of their hot stretches after taking the first 3 games of this series. They scored 11 runs on Friday and 8 runs yesterday; overall, I love trusting a lineup that can get contributions from 1-to-9 in their order.
As a kicker, the Royals hold the worst bullpen numbers in baseball by a fairly wide margin. We saw the KC pen yield 8 runs in the 8th inning of Friday’s game and a run in each in the 6th and 7th inning yesterday.
Advanced stats haven’t meant a ton this season, especially lately. So let’s look at some of the situational spots and see if we can find some value.
Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-225) 1:40 pm ET
This is a pretty straight forward game. The Guardians are starting opener Brian Shaw, where as the Rays are sending out their ace and AL Cy Young favorite Shane McClanahan. Cleveland has the 9th best pen in the majors so far this year, but it hasn’t turned into wins for them.
McClanahan is 3-1 on the F5 run line in July. He’s getting pretty good run support as well over the past 4 starts as the Rays are giving him 2.75 runs on average in the first 5 innings.
The Guardians should send out a similar lineup as yesterday’s losing effort. Corey Kluber got through the first 5 innings only giving up 1 run. The Rays gave him 5 runs of support during that time frame as well. I expect a similar game here out of McClanahan in his second start after the All Star break. In his first start out he limited Baltimore to 2 runs in the first 5 innings and ended up going 7.
The Guardians have also struggled on the season against lefties.
Take the Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 -145 1U
Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants (-185) 7:08 pm ET
The Chicago Cubs are sending out Adrian Sampson in tonight’s game. The Giants are countering with Carlos Rodon.
Most of Sampson’s starts have come at home. In his two road starts this year against St Louis and Milwaukee he gave up 3 runs in 10 2/3 innings. In his past two starts against the Mets and Pirates he’s only given up 2 runs in each of those games. I think he can repeat that effort here against a Giants offense that has been pretty meek this year. The Giants are also without Joc Pederson who provided most of their power this season.
Carlos Rodon has been much better at home (2.05 ERA) than on the road (3.88 ERA). He has struggled in his last 2 starts agains the Dodgers and Diamondbacks giving up 5 runs in each of those games. However, those starts were both on the road. His last home start against Milwaukee was a good one. He went 5 innings giving up 1 run on 8 hits. I expect him to bounce back here in this spot.
I expect this game to play like the first game in the series where Stroman started for the Cubs and Cobb went for the Giants. That game saw 1 run in the first 5 innings.
Expect a low scoring affair here and Take F5 U4 -120 1U
Well I picked one hell of a weekend to give away free picks! Our Saturday wasn’t completely frustrating, but good God we’re getting some weird results. The Wings did exactly what we thought they would, shooting nearly 50% from the field, and we lost the TT by 0.5 points.
Kansas City Royals @ New York Yankees
Going back to the well today with the Yankees, but in a different way. The Yankees have gotten off to slow starts lately against inferior opponents and have even lost. I can’t trust them, even with the epic comeback last night.
I’m going to isolate Nestor Cortes here. He has been lights out at home allowing just 10 runs in 8 starts. He holds a 1.90 home ERA, Opp BA of .168, Opp OBP .239, Opp SLG .269 and wOBA .231. He’s also striking out 28.8% of hitters, allowing .223 BABIP with a 2.72 FIP and 3.46 xFIP. He’s been getting a little bit lucky considering the difference in the FIP and xFIP, but I think the home dominance continues here against a poor Kansas City team. His hard hit contact rate is also down at home, and has been way down to start the second half.
While these advanced metrics haven’t meant much in a lot of plays recently, I think this one holds more weight as Cortes has proved all year, and with his recent starts, he’s one of the best in the American League.
For some additional analysis, if you want to consider the game last night, Cole has been up and down all year. That showed in his start last night. He was cruising until the 5th inning where he gave up 5 runs. He got the first 2 outs and then gave up 4 singles and a home run before finally getting the third out. I don’t think we see that out of Cortes here. I think he’ll be able to contain this lineup.
Last time out at Kansas City, Cortes gave up 2 runs (1 earned) in 5 innings back in April. That was when the Royals had some more pop in their lineup as well. Granted it was the beginning of the season, but the Royals haven’t gotten better since then. Even with Merrifield and Perez in the lineup (which I would expect them to be as they were last night) that’s about the extent of guys that will do damage. I don’t see Garcia having another 3 for 4 game here.
I think this is the best value on the card for today. Personally I have this line somewhere closer to -175, so I’m going to take advantage of the implied probability.
Take Nestor Cortes U2.5 Earned Runs -115 2U
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The Saturday MLB Comp Play is on the Chicago Whitesox at 7:15 eastern. Chicago has Cueto going and he has allowed 3 or less runs in 10 straight starts and has a 1.35 Era in his last 3 starts. Blackburn for Oakland has hit a wall and has a 13.19 Era over his last 3 starts allowing 21 earned runs in 14 innings. Chicago is 39-14 vs .400 or worse teams. Oakland has sprung another upset win. However we note that road dogs of 130 or more that scored 5+ runs in a road dog win that was preceded by 2 home dog wins have just 1 win since 2004. Look for Chicago to get game 2 of the series. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
What’s up people!
Nicolae Negumereanu (-123), to win 1 unit
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54% all time NFL sides and totals! 9.5% ROI
56% all time College Football sides and totals! 12% ROI
54% lifetime sides and totals in College Basketball – 1% ROI
48% lifetime UFC on all plays 13.5% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Amanda Nunes vs Juliana Pena +225
Ok, this is the rematch between who some call the GOAT of at least women’s MMA and the woman who beat her back in December 2021. Now this line is a massive shift from -1000 for Nunes down to -280 and I have to ask myself why the huge market discrepancy? Now Amanda was clearly out of shape for her Pena fight, and it showed when she uncharacteristically tapped on a weak submission attempt in the middle of the second round on a three round fight. Why did that happen? Well, Amanda went through a lot of life changes. She got married to Nina Nunes and they had a child together through in vitro fertilization. I having kids myself know quite well how much that it is the largest distraction from work that you could ever possibly imagine. Anyways, how much are we going to punish Amanda for this? $8 of line value seems quite steep and especially in a sport where everyone loses. Lets look at the metrics. These two women have similar stats and you have to give the striking advantage to Amanda’s at 4.55 to Pena’s 3.36, while giving the Wrestling advantage to Pena. In saying that, the strength of schedule very very much in favor of Nunes being that she is the only woman to beat Valentina Shevchenko twice as well as all of the other top contenders in the Bamtam weight class. Pena, before her Nunes fight, had her best win against against Sara McMann and then lost two out of her last three fights before that to submission if you can believe that. The final part of this handicap is Pena’s weakness that nobody is talking about. Juliana’s take down defense is a pathetic 22% which means if Amanda has any brains, she will just start taking her down all fight until she is warn out enough to chase a submission. Nunes needs to protect her gas-tank here, and she can’t blow her strength out like she did in the first round in the last fight. Nunes take down defense is a strong 82% so I am ok if Pena tries to shoot. I think the last fight was an anomaly, and Pena has never went past a 3rd round in a fight. I am going to take Nunes ITD and by submission.
Nunes ITD -135 – 2 stars
Nunes by submission +550 – 1 star
Bonus Play: The whole perception of the Black beast and Sergei Pavlovich is that they finish their fights and/or get beaten early. Well, that is mainly true when they are fighting inferior opponents but I think that both of these fighters respect each other enough to get past. 1.5 rounds. Sergei trains at Eagles MMA which has a huge focus on wrestling/grappling and having two large humans on the ground can really push the clock here.
Lewis/Pavlovich over 1.5 rounds – 1 star
