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June 20th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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I remain +10.69u over the last 6 weeks and am rolling with 3 plays to get the new week started. To receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Giants/Braves F5 UNDER 4(+105)–6:20 PM CT

The Braves had won 14 straight ballgames entering this past weekend but seem to have cooled off after dropping 2 of 3 to the lowly Cubs in Chicago. Specifically, the bats seemed to come back down to earth; the Braves managed to score just 9 runs in the 3 game set and were shut out on Friday. Throughout the season, the Braves have not started out their homestands hot with the bats. Coming off a road trip of 2 series or more this season, the Braves have scored just 3 runs in each of the first games of their following homestand. Giants SP Logan Webb is coming off his best start of the season where he threw 7 shutout innings and struck out 9 Royals bats. While Webb is an easy back in his home ballpark, he holds a solid 1.08 WHIP on the road this season and is a guy I’ve seen progress throughout the season after a slow start. On the other side of things, this seems to be a good spot for Braves SP Max Fried as well. Fried has blossomed into a sub-3.00 ERA guy over the past 3 seasons, and the one constant has been his consistency pitching at home. While the Giants can certainly get after right-handed pitching, going against lefties is simply not their best role. In addition, if you take out an outlier 15 run performance on June 3rd, San Fran is averaging just 3.5 runs/game in the month of June. I like this starting pitching matchup a lot, especially considering each offense has struggled in this particular role. F5 UNDER is the play for me. 

*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT UNDER 3.5(-130) @ Brewers–7:10 PM CT

*MLB(0.74u): Brewers -1.5(+135) vs Cardinals–7:10 PM CT

It’s Corbin Burnes day in Milwaukee! In my opinion, the 2021 NL Cy Young Winner is still the best pitcher in baseball, and he’ll get a relatively favorable matchup in this one. The Cardinals have mashed left-handed pitching over the course of the season, but against righties, this is a very mediocre lineup. Burnes twirled 7 shutout innings in St. Louis earlier this season and holds an impressive 0.95 WHIP this year. Burnes’ only crutch has been allowing the deep ball, but given he allowed less than 0.4 HR/9 each of the past 2 seasons, I expect to see that HR number plummet throughout the season. The Cardinals were able to take advantage of some shotty bullpen arms in the Red Sox ‘pen over the weekend, but I don’t expect them to be afforded the same luxury in this one. Josh Hader is coming off the paternity list and will be available for Milwaukee, and Devon Williams and Brad Boxberger are trustworthy arms as well. However, Burnes has gone 7 full innings five separate times this year, and I think he’ll have every opportunity to go deep in this game.

Cardinals SP Miles Mikolas almost through a no-hitter in his last start against the Pirates, but the Brewers present him a much tougher matchup. Milwaukee has won 4 of their last 5 and is scoring over 6 runs/game in that span; on the year, the Brewers have been a top 10 offense vs righties in their home ballpark. Mikolas has been great for St Louis this year, but with a FIP a full run above his ERA, I’m not expecting him to be a sub-3.00 ERA guy for much longer. The Cardinals’ bullpen is also incredibly inconsistent and has not earned my trust in some of these tougher matchups. Given Burnes is on the hill and the Brewers are in great current form, I think +135 on the run-line is generous. I’ll sprinkle on that to hopefully win us a full unit.

Premiums, 6.20

By
Chris R. Farley
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Welcome back to the show, people! We had a pretty damn good weekend, going 3-2 in MLB, 2-1 in UFC, and 1-0 in NHL. Foreign basketball will take some catching up as we’re down 2 units now, but plenty of time to get right in that arena.

Onto today’s picks!
MLB Picks:
Mets Total Runs over 4.5 (-110), 1 unit
Trevor Rogers has looked rather horrendous this year, lacking command, walking way too many batters (4.71/9 innings) and allowing way too many HRs (1.51/9 innings). The Mets are more than comfortable hitting against lefties, at home, after a lackluster performance Sunday. Love NYM to come out SLANGING bawlls!
Yankees/Rays over 6.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units
McClanahan has been fantastic and Gerrit Cole has been at his best, but I can’t not take a Yankees’ game over if the total is this low. Prove it pitchers- putting more units than usual on this one for easy money.
 
Giants/Braves under 8 (-110), 1 unit
Logan Webb looked sensational in his last start and Max Fried probably can’t wait to get back on the mound after allowing way too many runs/hits to the lowly Nats. Fried has been very consistent this year and both bullpens are good enough to keep this low-scoring.
NHL Picks:
 
Avalanche over 2.5 goals (-170), 1.7 units
Like the Yankees, Tampa Bay will need to prove they can stifle the tremendous offense we’re seeing from Colorado. The “right play” might be the Lightning at home to answer the call, but I’m not so sure they can do that by defense. Taking Colorado’s over.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
LNB Pro A League (France)
AS Monaco 1H -2 (-110), 1.5 units
These two top teams keep going back and forth and now this is a revenge game for AS Monaco at home. I expect them to take an early lead – the full game could get dicey.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Stanley Cup Finals Preview & Picks – Game 2

By
Patrick Gates
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The Avalanche take Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals thanks to Andre Burakovsky. Tampa Bay will look to even up the series while Colorado aims to take a 2-0 series lead. I’ll break down Game 2 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 1-0)

Side Line Movement

After the Avalanche closed as -150 home favorites in Game 1, they’re currently listed at the same price for Game 2. I mentioned this in my previous article but, Colorado has been favorited to win every game this post season. Despite Tampa Bay’s track record of avoiding consecutive losses, the line has remained constant.

Total Line Movement

Just like in Game 1, the total has been set at 6.0 for Game 2. In the first game we saw the total slightly juiced to the over at -115 but as of now it’s listed at -110. Keep in mind, a similar scenario occurred when these teams squared off during the regular season. In their first matchup the over hit, and in the second game they juiced the total to the over and the under hit. I have a feeling book makers are trying to avoid that scenario here because if the over does end up at -115/-120 a lot of sharp betters will take the under at plus money.

 

Game 2 Breakdown

Colorado came out firing in Game 1 using their speed to propel them to a 3-1 lead after the first period. Tampa Bay made some adjustments and were able to tie the game heading into the third. After a scoreless third period, we went to overtime where Andre Burakovsky was the hero for the Avalanche.

We knew this was going to be a tight series and I think that trend continues in the remaining games. The trend of Tampa Bay struggling in the opening game of a series continued but they did show some fight. Following the first game, Jon Cooper has been great at making the necessary adjustments. I think we see that here in Game 2 with Tampa Bay really hunkering down in the first to avoid a large deficit like Game 1. Vasilevskiy also struggled a bit allowing some “softer” goals than usual but settled in nicely making some huge saves to force overtime.

Colorado will continue to try and use their speed to give them an advantage over this Tampa Bay roster. They switched up their lines a bit for the first game and I’m sure they’ll be sticking with that lineup for Game 2. Darcy Kuemper made his return to the net and looked okay finishing the game with a -0.78 GSAx. He did make some nice saves but allowed 3 goals on just 23 shots. Tampa’s going to come out firing in Game 2 so he’ll have to step up his play to match. Kardi and Cogliano have progressed but are questionable for Saturday’s game.

In the first game, the biggest matchup was Colorado’s offense against Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, I think that switches in Game 2 where the most important matchup will be Darcy Kuemper against Tampa Bay’s offense. The Lightning proved they could score on him and game 2 and will undoubtedly have more than 23 shots on goal in Saturday’s game. We’ll see if he’s up for the test or if Tampa Bay can even up the series heading back home.

TBL Injuries: None

COL Injuries: N. Kadri (QUES- Thumb), A. Cogliano (QUES- Hand)

 

Team Prop Breakdown

TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-135/+105)

In Game 1, we saw the Lightning total 3 goals on just 23 shots on goal. Throughout, the entire playoffs the Bolts have struggled in the first game of a series. However, looking at their track record they’ve rebounded well in the following game.

COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 3.5 including OT (+110/-140)

The Avalanche were able to get four by Vasilevskiy in Game 1. This was just the fourth time this post season that Vasilevskiy has allowed four or more goals in a game. After those performances, he allowed three goals against in each of those games.

 

Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)

Nikita Kucherov 0.5 points (-250/+190)

Game 1: 1 Assist

Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number is four of his last five games away from home. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups. In the first game of this series over 0.5 was listed at -245 but has shifted to -290 in Game 2.

Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+135/-175)

Game 1: 0 Points

Alex Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on a twelve game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.

Mikko Rantanen 1.5 points (+175/-230)

Game 1: 2 Assists

In Game 1, Rantanen’s point total was listed at 0.5 (-250/+190) and has since shifted to 1.5. Mikko Rantanen has recorded over 1.5 points in three of his last five games. At home, he has gone over this number in each of his last three games. Be very careful playing this prop tonight, I would recommend staying away from it.

Steven Stamkos 2.5 shots (-180/+140)

Game 1: 3 Shots on Goal

Steven Stamkos has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five games on the road he has also gone over this number in four of his last five. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.

Picks

  • [0.50u] Tampa Bay Lightning Team Total o2.5 (-135) – DraftKings
  • [0.50u] Tampa Bay Lightning (+135) – BetMGM

 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

 

NFL: 2022 AFC East Division Break Down

By
Steve Norman
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Believe it or not we are only eight weeks out until August 4th, when the NFL kicks off it’s preseason “Hall of Fame Game.  No better time in that eight week span for me to break down every division weekly and find best future bet team to win their division.  We had an awesome season last year, but we are in a business of “What have you done for me lately?”.  The past is the past, time to regroup and dial to not only obtain the same success as last season, but surpass it!

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Steve Norman Premium Picks

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AFC EAST

Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag

Bills -200 Dolphins +325 Patriots +550  Jets +2000

Buffalo Bills -200:

Key Free Agency Additions: Von Miller, Shaq Lawson, Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson, OJ Howard, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, Rodger Saffold, and Jordan Phillips.

2022 Draft Picks: Round 1, pick 30: CB Kaiir Elam, Round 2, pick 63: RB James Cook, Round 3, pick 89: LB Terrel Bernard, Round 5, pick 148: WR Khalil Shakir, Round 6, pick 180: P Matt Araiza, Round 6, pick 185: CB Christian Benford, Round 6, pick 209: OL Luke Tenuta.

Strength of Schedule: Tied 12th per CBSsports

It is no surprise for anyone the Bills are rather large favorites to win their division coming in at -200.  They made a huge statement during Free Agency not only bringing in Veteran LB Von Miller, but making a huge push to bolster both their offensive and defensive lines with seasoned talent.  They combatted that with filling in low cost reliable skill position talent in the likes of Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson, and OJ Howard.  Do not sleep on these pick ups.  Now having the ability to run two tight end sets with Dawson Knox and OJ Howard.  Duke Johnson adds a nice wrinkle in the back field as Singletary was starting to come along late in the season and Jamison Crowder replacing Cole Beasley in the slot in my opinion is an upgrade in that position.  These aren’t flashy signings, but I believe they are the cherry on top of an already potent and “ready to win now team”.  It is Super Bowl or bust for the Bills this season.

My big question mark is we know the Bills are an elite teams, but they stumbled to win their division last year finishing one game above the Pats at 11-6.  Yes, they have added key positions and upgrades this offseason… but so has every other team…

ENTIRE DOCUMENT DIDN’T SAVE AFTER THIS POINT SO WILL GIVE A BRIEF SYNAPSE OF WHAT I WROTE, MY APOLOGIES…WILL HAVE A MORE SOUND BREAKDOWN FOR NFC EAST NEXT WEEK

Miami Dolphins +325:  

Huge blockbuster deal involving Tyreek Hill, along with RB signings of Edmonds and Mostert.  Dolphins had to make a splash (get it) during free agency due to only having 4 draft picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. A lot of questions whether Tua is going to be the Dolphins franchise QB going forward and if he has the talent to take them to the next level.  With new coach Mike McDaniel coming into his first season as head coach, he is hoping to build off of the Dolphins impressive 8-1 run to close out their 2021 season.  With the additions at depth in RB and bringing in former Raiders FB Ingold it will be no surprise if Miami looks to rely heavily on the run game controlling the clock and possessions.  This will greatly help alleviate the pressure off of Tua who has shown to struggle with passing accurately consistently.  The great thing about a receiver like Tyreek Hill that is so talented and dynamic a 5 yard slant high percentage throw and catch, can be just as effective as a 50 yard go route that has to be put in a bucket.  Dolphins have a tremendous amount of upside this season.  Will they be the 1-7 team that started 2021 or the 8-1 team that finished.

New England Patriots +550:

Patriots had 10 draft picks and chose to reach hard in the first round drafting Offensive Guard Cole Strange.  Many experts had him going much later, but time will tell if this was an epic reach… or a key offensive piece for the future.  Patriots had a typical Patriots free agency, nothing too flashy or headline grabbing, but a key emphasis on bolstering their Secondary.  No surprise after all Bill Belichick prides himself on his defensive mastermind schemes and game plans.  At the end of the day that is what ultimately keeps the Patriots relevant at this stage without Tom Brady.  For me I am not completely sold on Mac Jones and year 2 will certainly dictate if he is the real deal franchise type of QB or just a game manager trying his best to not screw it up.

New York Jets +2000:

Jets had a phenomenal draft picking up coveted Admad ‘Sauce’ Gardner at the CB position along with Garrett Wilson at WR position to name a few.  I really loved their free agency signing of CJ Uzomah from the Bengals.  Let’s be honest Jets have not had a decent TE in years, Ryan Griffin certainly has not been getting it done.  Uzomah has shown he is the type of player that can make game changing plays and take over a game, and that is very hard to find in the TE position.  I think the Jets are moving in the right direction and had an extremely good offseason.  Year two will be very telling for Zach Wilson and his development.  The Jets are a very young team and I think they are building something special, they just aren’t ready yet.

Conclusion:  FADE

Bills are clearly the division favorite at -200,  but I am not too certain I can 100% trust them.  We saw them play down to lesser competition during the season, they have a harder strength of schedule, and the Dolphins are a huge X factor to possibly make this a harder task.  At -200 to tie up a bet that won’t close out until January 8th, I think we can find better value elsewhere.  For those who love upside and value…. no shame an thinking about sprinkling a little bit on the Dolphins at +325.

 

 

Rob V: Sat: Comp Play + 1ST Half MLB GAME OF THE YEAR info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Huge Saturday up with our 1ST Half MLB Game of the Year Tonight along with a MLS Platinum Supreme Soccer Total, the NHL Playoff Game of the Month and another MLB TOP PROP. MLB Comp play below

On Saturday the MLB Power System Play is on Tampa Bay at 4:05 eastern. The Rays were shutout last night setting up a powerful system. We are playing on road favorites of 120 or more off a -145 or higher road favored loss where they were shutout and the opponent scored 2 or less runs. If the road favorite lost the game before the system is perfect since 2004. Tamps has won 22 of 26 vs Baltimore and they have Springs starting. He has allowed 2 or less runs in 9 of 10 appearances and has a 1.45 Era. Balty counters with Bradish who has an elevated 6.56 Era. Look for Tampa to even up the series. On Saturday the First Half MLB Game of the Year goes tonight with a 100% System dating to 2004, the NHL Game of the Month and an MLS Platinum Supreme Soccer totals as well as Another MLB TOP Prop.  See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on Twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out. For the MLB Comp play. Take Tampa. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

UFC on ESPN 37 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Gregory Rodrigues vs Julian Marquez +150

It is going to be a great event tonight in Austin where Calvin Kattar will be facing Josh Emmitt.   There are some good fighters on this card with some very good matchups.   I can’t wait for the Court McGee vs Jeremiah Wells fight myself.   Anyways, if you are a UFC fan, then you know that the Texas combative sport commission has been lackluster at best and some of the decisions have been quite suspect.   This means that you do not want to play a lot of fighters that could go to the cards.

Now, what I do like is dogs in this venue and I think we might have found one with Julian Marquez.   Gregory Rodriguez is a very good fighter but I am not sure that he should be favored in this spot, especially when he took this fight on a short notice.  This will be a middleweight fight at 185lbs.  Neither fighter had weight issues.   Robocop Rodriguez is 11-4 with most of his finishes by KO (5) and Sub (4) but he has only had three total fights in the UFC with a very nice win vs Jun Yong Park, but a tough split decision loss vs Armen Petrosyan back in February.  Julian Marquez is 9-2 as a fighter with only four fights in the UFC, but he has some nice victories against Sam Alvey, Darrin Stewart and Maki Pitolo with a very smelly split decision loss vs Alessio Di Chirico.   Now the reason that Gregory Rodrigues is favored is that he has the striking advantage at 5.3 significant strikes per minute to Julian’s 4.2 as well as a clear take down advantage, but what needs to be factored in is that Julian is also very good on the ground even though his stats do not show it.   All three of Julian’s UFC wins have come by submission and that is where I think he has a shot against Rodriguez who hasn’t had a great strength of schedule.   If this fight goes to the cards, I would much rather be on the dog per what I said earlier about the Texas commission.   I am going to take a shot with Marquez +150 here in a fight that should be closer to pick-em in my opinion.

Julian Marquez +150 – 1.5 stars

Bonus Play:  Parlay Calvin Kattar -240 and Kyle Daukaus -250 – +104 – 1.5 stars –

Both of these fighters are about -240 for a reason and their shear volume with punching  power should be able to get it done for them.   Both fighters also have over 86% take down defense so I do not think the matt will factor much into fruition.  

June 17th MLB Plays(Runs, Runs, and more Runs)

By
Michael Fordham
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Coming off a 1-0 night, I sit at +12.19u over the last 39 days. I’m rolling with my highest volume card of the season tonight looking to start the weekend off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group. 

*MLB(1u): Phillies/Nationals OVER 11(-110)–12:05 PM CT

The Nationals pitching staff has been an absolute disaster this week(we’ve taken advantage twice), and I expect that to continue today. Nats SP Joan Adon is a AAA caliber arm and is only making this start out of necessity for today’s doubleheader. In 12 big league starts this year, all Adon has done is put up an ugly 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP and is walking over 5.5 batters per 9 innings. The Phillies teed off on this staff yesterday, and today will be even more favorable considering there is a strong wind blowing upwards of 15 mph out to RF. Over the past 2-3 weeks, we’ve seen this offense really turn a corner. On the other side of things, however, I’ve not been impressed with what I’ve seen from Phillies SP Ranger Suarez. After a great 2021, we’ve seen his walks spike up while his strikeouts have plummeted; it’s not hard to see why Suarez holds a 1.50 WHIP this deep into the season. The Nationals offense is pretty mediocre, but they have really gotten after left-handed pitching as of late. In a 2 game stretch against the Brewers last weekend, the Nats put up 14 runs in a 2 day stretch off of Aaron Ashby and Eric Lauer alone; they will also have the wind at their advantage today. As a bonus, these are two horrible bullpens; as much as I’ve talked down on Washington’s bullpen recently, the Phillies actually have a worse bullpen WHIP this season. I expect this game to soar over the total. 

*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 1.5(-135) vs Rays–5:05 PM CT

Rays SP Shane Baz is a great young prospect, but he is far too early in his career for the oddsmakers to value him so highly. Baz struggled mightily with his command in his season debut last weekend in Minnesota, and this will be just his 5th career start in the big leagues. This number also completely neglects the Orioles’ current form; the O’s have scored 22 runs over their last 3 games, all on the road in Toronto. Yesterday, the Orioles tallied 7 runs off of Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, a power righty who was at one point looking like this year’s AL Cy Young. When you also consider the wind will be blowing out 16 mph to right-center tonight, this is simply the wrong number. 

*MB(1u): Reds F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105)–5:40 PM CT

The Reds looked destined for a historically bad season after a 3-22 start, but over the last month-and-a-half, they sit above the .500 mark. In particular, this team has really figured out how to hit lefties in their home ballpark, holding the 2nd best OPS in the league in that spot. Brewers SP Eric Lauer is a power lefty arm, but he got obliterated in his last start in Washington; his 1.20 WHIP is proof that he’s more than beatable. When I see a team with an .883 OPS in any role this deep into the season, I don’t take that lightly. A wind blowing out 13 mph to RCF will also not hurt the Reds’ chances to get after Lauer tonight. 

*MLB(1u): Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 9(-115)–6:07 PM CT

This is perhaps the most egregious total on the board today. The wind will be blowing out upwards of 20(!) mph to LF in Toronto tonight, yet this total has barely adjusted. Given it will be a beautiful 72 degrees and sunny in Toronto tonight, the roof will almost certainly be open. Both SP’s(Jordan Montgomery and Ross Stripling) have had really good starts to the season, but I don’t think either is sustainable. Montgomery will face the tall task of facing a Blue Jays lineup that is averaging 6.5 runs/game here in the month of June. On the other side, Stripling has had trouble with allowing the long ball throughout his entire career and has to face the mighty Yankees in these conditions. Toronto’s bullpen is very hit-or-miss and can’t be trusted when stepping up in competition. The Yankees bullpen has been rock solid this year, but they have needed each of their back-end arms in bulk over the past 3 days. With these conditions in mind, I think we see an absolute slugfest between two of the most high-powered offenses in the league. 

*MLB(1u): Padres/Rockies OVER 12.5(-120)–7:40 PM CT

Each of these SP’s find themselves in a tough role tonight facing the same lineup for the second straight time. Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has always been vulnerable pitching at Coors Field, and now he will have to face a Padres lineup that has scored 37 runs over their last 3 games(that is not a typo). While the Rockies have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they rank 5th in OPS vs lefties away from their home ballpark. The Rockies also have a bottom 5 bullpen in the league. Padres SP Mackenzie Gore has a bright future in San Diego, but the Rockies tagged him for 6 ER in Petco Park last weekend. Now, the rookie will have to make his first ever start in Coors Field facing that exact same lineup. The Rockies have been steady against lefties all season and at the very least should get after Gore for a few runs. While the Padres bullpen has been effective this season, I have my doubts as to a) that will continue to remain true, and b) if that will translate to the unique environment of Coors Field. The oddsmakers are telling you a pretty good story by setting a total at 12.5. When you consider that “wraparound” matchup angle for each starter, I think each offense names their number. 

*MLB(0.71u): White Sox F5 ML(+140) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT

Astros SP Framber Valdez has yet to settle into pitching at Minute Maid Park. Valdez held a 1.37 WHIP at home last year and walked nearly 5 batters/9 innings. This year, he holds similar numbers at home(4.15 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). The White Sox have been an overall disappointment this year, but the one constant with this team is that they mash left-handed pitching(1st in the league in OPS vs lefties). They also enter this game in good current form after scoring 27 runs in their 3 game set in Detroit earlier this week. White Sox SP Lucas Giolito has dealt with some setbacks this year and thus has had his struggles. Still, Giolito is an All Star caliber arm that has had great success on the road throughout his career; I expect him to settle in throughout the summer. The Astros offense continues to be a very mediocre unit; on the season, they rank just 20th in OPS vs righties in their home ballpark. They will also be without SS Jeremy Pena tonight, which is a big loss considering the ‘Stros don’t have much quality depth in their lineup. I won’t risk a full unit on this, but I see enough value to take a shot with the White Sox early in this game. DO NOT PLAY THE WHITE SOX FULL GAME.

Friday Free Pick – Parlay The Phils On Phriday

By
Shawn Knoche
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We are on a nice little heater currently in MLB going 13-3-1 last 16 plays and picking up 19.84 Units. Looking to keep it rolling on this wonderful Friday.

I am playing a Philadelphia Phillies double dip parlay vs the Washington Nationals. By themselves the Phillies are currently -186 in the opener where Ranger Suarez takes on Joe Adon, and in game 2 they are -160 with Bailey Falter taking on Paolo Espino in what will be a heavy bullpen battle. By themselves I don’t like either number, but the way these teams have been playing I see value in a All Philly Parlay on Friday. Putting them together I got it at +153, and I think it’s worth a shot here.

Looking at recent trends the Phils have been hot. Schwarber, Harper and company are absolutely mashing. Since the Calendar turned to June they have flipped the script on their season and are 12-2 this month averaging 6.4 runs per game while only giving up 3.7. The Nationals are struggling, losers of their last 5 and 5-10 overall in June while scoring 4.2 Runs per game and allowing 6.9

The early game pitching match-up features Joe Adon for the Nats who is one of the worst starters in the majors so far this year. He has a 6.95 ERA and a 5.30 xFIP. He hasn’t taken the bump in 10 days and I don’t expect him to get out of the 5th. Ranger Suarez goes for the Phillies and he has had a very up and down season. He currently sits at a 4.40 ERA with a 4.22 xFIP. He hasn’t gotten ground balls at his rate he did last year, but the Nationals offense has struggled and I think he will shut them down. The second game will be a bullpen battle. Washington is 26th in bullpen era at 4.53, while the Phils are 20th at 4.20. I don’t trust either one, but the way the Phillies are swinging the bats I like them to win the battle of attrition here.

Phillies Double Dip Parlay +153, 1.5 Units.

June 17th Afternoon Baseball Free Play

By
Dan Everett
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Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM ET

It doesn’t get much better and much more All-American than afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field. The Braves come in with a day off after completing the sweep of the Nationals and continuing their 14 game winning streak. The Cubs come in to this one after a 6-4 loss and currently riding a 10 game losing streak. With that being said, streaks are made to be broken, so I won’t be on a side here in today’s game.

The Braves come in having scored an average of 9 runs in their past 3 games. They are averaging 4.7 runs per game on the road, and 4.81 runs per game overall this season. The Cubs have averaged 4.67 runs per game in their last 3 games. They’re averaging 4.57 runs per game at home and 4.25 runs per game overall.

Both pitchers are coming into this game struggling. Charlie Morton has given up 4 runs or more in his last 4 starts. Keegan Thompson has given up 3 or more runs in his last 3 starts.

Let’s start with Charlie Morton. His road stats this year have been abysmal. His average road start has been 5 1/3 innings per game, and giving up an average of 4.2 runs per game. He has a 6.89 road ERA, 5.63 FIP, 4.76 xFIP, .397 wOBA, .355 BABIP, and is giving up 1.72 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Morton holds a 1-3 record in 5 road starts.

Keegan Thompson comes into this game with pretty good home stats. On the surface a 1.80 home ERA, .358 wOBA, 2.84 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, and .257 BABIP are actually good, really good in fact. When we take a closer look though at his home stats as a starter that’s where the wheels start to fall off. As a starter at home he’s sporting a 6.26 ERA, 6.44 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, .310 BABIP, and .418 wOBA.

There are a couple trends that we like here to support these plays as well. The Cubs are 13-8-2 to the over as a home dog and 27-22-2 to the over on no rest. The Braves are 31-24-2 to the over in league games this year.

One key piece missing for the Braves though is Ozzie Albies. He’s out about 2 months with a broken foot. There hasn’t been too much fall off, especially against lower tier teams, that has been noticeable so far. We’ll have to see how this plays out.

With all of that being said, here’s what I’m playing on today’s game:

F5 O4.5 -105 1U

FG O8.5 -110 1.5U

Best of luck if you tail and let’s have some fun this afternoon!

Premiums, 6.17 thru 6.19

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hey All! A lot to unpack!

  1. We had a cold finish to the NBA season and I sure as hell wish I bet on the Warriors as much as I touted and supported them via articles and podcasts. Lesson learned – we listened too much to others’ BS. In any case…
  2. It was a season where we hit at 56% and won over 80 units overall. We’re very happy about this result and very thankful for all of your support! Please know how much you mean to me and how grateful I am for all of the verbal affirmations throughout the last year. Means the world to me.
  3. Now starts the long summer road of NFL prep while attempting to pick apart MLB. We’ll continue betting foreign basketball, UFC, and Tennis, too.
I’ll be at a remote fishing cabin starting today through Sunday afternoon, so all of my picks for the weekend are in this email. I’ll try to check Twitter and email but I’ll have VERY little internet connection where I am. Enjoy your weekend!
MLB Picks:
 
June 17th 
Parlay: Braves + Giants, 1 unit to win 1.33 units
Prime spots for Morton and Rodon, vastly superior pitchers, on the road against two young, able, but pitchers unlikely to show a steady command.
 
Yankees/Jays over 9.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
We like tomorrow’s game to go under and I’d like it even more if we see an explosion of points in this contest today, which I expect. Two hittable throwers are on the mound today and both Toronto and NYY just had uninspiring offensive performances yesterday. Cue the sound of wood smacking balls!
 
Twins (-130), 1.3 units to win 1
Smeltzer has been sensational, Bumgarner is solid but obviously aging, and I trust the Twins offense, although they’ve been inconsistent lately, to find an early groove in this series.
June 18
Yankees/Jays under anything 8 or more, 1 unit
Two of their best pitchers take the mound Saturday and is it me or is Manoah getting better? This is a great spot for him to show some grit at home and a good next-day under after we expect big slugs on Friday.
 
Brewers/Reds under anything 7.5 or more, 1 unit
The Brewers should be participating in WAY more under than over games, but their pitching hasn’t held up like expected. This is a good series to get into a better flow-state against a rising young stud in Ashcraft and a pedestrian offense in Cincinnati.
 
Dodgers -1.5, 1.5 units
Statement game for the home-team Dodgers against an ascending team in Cleveland who isn’t quite ready for this smoke. Especially not with Cal on the mound. Urias could go 7 innings.
 
UFC Picks:
 
Yanez within Distance (+120), 1 unit
Considerably more talented on his feet, a KO finish pays the same price as a win within distance so we’ll go with the latter. This shouldn’t be close.
 
Jasinavicius via Decision (-125), 1 unit
Jasmine is the by far the superior wrestler, even though Silva loves an armbar and could get a sneaky win. I’ll go with the probability (at a good price) that Jasmine gets it done and wins by points, as most ladies’ fights do.
Kattar within Distance (+175), 1.5 units to win 2.32 units
I respect the hell out of Josh Emmett and the kind of KO power he brings, but Kattar is (by far, in our opinion) the more technical and tenacious striker. Both of these guys want to end it early – Kattar has more in his toolchest to make it happen.
 
NHL Picks:
 
Lightning/Avalanche over 6, 1.5 units
What am I stupid? These defenses will have to prove us all wrong and until they do, I’m betting overs. Two great offenses showed out in game 1 and we love that pace heading into a redemption game for TB – they usually rely on their superior scorers in these situations.
 
Foreign Basketball Picks (2-3, -1.3 units):
(Germany, June 17) 
Alba Berlin -6 (-105), 1 unit
Game over 156, 1 unit
These two love to go back and forth and after a pathetic showing from Bayern Munich on offense, we can only expect more points. I also have to play on Alba Berlin, who’s clearly the better overall team and now we’re getting deflated juice to take them at home. Gladly.
 
Spain (June 17)
Real Madrid BC (-154), 1 unit
Real Madrid BC is clearly the better unit but I don’t have faith in my analysis just yet to take them at -3. I’ll go with a ML play like we’re betting MLB.
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