The Rockies spoiled what was an otherwise solid Wednesday for us; over the last 38 days, I remain +11.19u. I’m rolling with a lone play for tonight looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies TT OVER 5.5(-105) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
The Phillies came back down to earth a bit in their series this week against the Marlins, although they still did record at least 8 hits in each game despite facing a quality pitching staff. The fact remains that, on the road this season, the Phillies rank 2nd in OPS vs lefties(.881 OPS). They were able to crush a talented lefty arm in Trevor Rogers a few days ago, which gives me even more confidence trusting them tonight in a very easy matchup. Nationals SP Patrick Corbin was a big part of Washington’s WS run in 2019, but ever since then, he has truly been one of the worst SP’s in baseball. This season, Corbin holds an atrocious 6.65 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and is allowing over 12 hits per 9 innings. Even in his better starts, he is avoiding damage by a thread and allowing far too many baserunners. In addition, the Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the game and have been poorly managed by Dave Martinez; it is nice knowing that we’ll be in this until the very end facing such a bad bullpen. As an added bonus, there will be a strong gust blowing out to LF tonight that should aid the Phillies in what’s already a favorable matchup. While there is a chance of rain in Washington DC tonight, it’s not something I expect to postpone this game. I don’t want to say I’m “autofading” the Nationals pitching staff at this point, but given how we just saw them fold against the Braves, it’s certainly a unit I have no problem playing against at the moment, especially in this particular matchup.
Thursday card has a Rare 6* NBA Finals Historical System that has Cashed 15 straight times. We also have a Powerful 33-8 Canadian Football League Totals System and Another TOP level MLB Play. WNBA Comp Play below.
The WNBA Comp Play is on the Washington Mystics at 7:00 eastern. Washington has this one circled. They have home loss revenge for a 74-70 loss on June 3rd to NY as a 12 point favorite. Washington has covered 6 of 7 on the road. The Liberty have failed to cover 20 of 28 with 3+days rest and 25 of 34 vs a winning team. To tie in a database system we are playing against home dogs off a home dog loss if they allowed 84+ points and were off a previous road win. Look for Washington to serve up revenge tonight. On Thursday another Powerful card is up and led by a Rare 6* Top Rated NBA Finals Play backed with a 15-0 Database system. We also have a Powerful MLB Play and a 33-8 CFL Totals system, play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the WNBA Play. Go with Washington. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The NBA Finals and the NBA season may come to a close tonight, but something tells me Boston will bring their A-game at home against the surging Warriors. What’s our best bet for tonight’s Game 6 showdown? Check it out, below!
Chris is 76-59 (56%) for +12 units in the NBA playoffs – for INSANE discounts on the upcoming NFL season and next NBA season, check out his premium picks to get this quality of winnings in every sport, every day, directly in your inbox!
Warriors/Celtics over 210, 1.5 units: There’s a lot of reasons to continually bet the under in these NBA Finals. We know that, for myriad reasons, NBA playoff games tend to slow down tremendously and offer much lower totals. Part of that is an uptick in defensive effort, part of that is the jitters of the moment, and part of that is just how plainly intense these contests are. Few shots go up without a sustained effort to find open space, and that’s especially true against these two superior defenses. So then why do we like the over? Let’s take a look at just a few reasons why we think a higher-scoring game is due:
We keep waiting and waiting for the Celtics to come out more aggressively in the 1st quarter of these contests. Whenever that’s happened, they not only won the game, but the score soared way over the projected total (216 and 228 points in 2 Celtics’ wins). The Warriors offense can always bring it and the fact that Steph Curry had a down game on Monday is NOT good news for Boston. Either way, Ime Udoka and the home-team Celtics know that, with Golden State’s defense using complex switches and looks on defense, it’s Boston that needs to attack and throw off “Dub City.”
Early NFL Lines We Like:
The Stanley Cup Finals have arrived. If you missed it, I broke down the series and gave my picks out in earlier article. I’ll break down Game 1 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: Tied 0-0)
Side Line Movement
The Colorado Avalanche are home favorites in the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals at -155 on the moneyline. During their two regular season games against the Lightning they went off at -110 and -115. Through out the entire playoffs, the Avalanche have been favorited to win every game. The last time the Lightning were underdogs was in their first two games on the road against Florida.
Total Line Movement
For the first game of the Stanley Cup finals, the total is set at 6.0 (-115/-105).
During their two regular season matchups, the total was set at 6.0 in both games. In their first game, the total went over 6.0 as they combined for 7 goals. Even through the total didn’t move in the second game, the over was juiced at -125. However in the second game, the total went under 6.0 as they combined for just 5 goals.
In Tampa Bay’s series against the Rangers, the total was set at 5.5 every game. If we look further back, the total was set at 6.5 in every game against the Panthers.
In Colorado’s last series, the total was set at 7.0 every game. If we go back one series before that against St. Louis, the total was set at 6.5 every game.
Trends
Game 1 Breakdown
The Avalanche have only lost two games this post season in route to the finals. Colorado has gone a perfect 7-0 on the road with a 5-2 record at home. Both of those two losses came at the hands of the St. Louis Blues in the second round. Tampa Bay has struggled a bit on the road during the playoffs going 5-4. Away from home their averaging less goals for and more goals against. Despite those numbers, their special teams has been excelling on the road. Both their Power Play percentage and Penalty Kill percentage are significantly better.
Colorado has won the first game of every series this post season while Tampa Bay has lost two of three. Based off what we saw during the regular season, this series should be extremely tight. In both of those games, the winner was decided by a single goal.
In the first round we saw Tampa Bay struggle a bit with the initial speed of Toronto as they dropped game 1, 5-0. I don’t think we see a similar score tonight but I do think the Avalanche take a 1-0 series lead. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been unbelievable since game 7 of that first series and will need to remain the backbone of this team if they’re going to win their third consecutive Stanley Cup.
I believe Colorado comes out flying tonight with the goal of trying to put as many shots on net as possible. I think Vasilevksiy stands up to the test but when the games said and done, Colorado will have gotten 2-3 by him on 35-36 shots on goal. Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to get 1-2 by Kuemper/ Francouz so it’ll come down to a third period goal by Colorado to win it.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (PROB- Leg)
COL Injuries: N. Kadri (QUES- Thumb), A. Cogliano (QUES- Hand), A. Burakovsky (PROB- Lower Body)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-130/+100)
In the two regular season games against the Colorado Avalanche, the Lightning averaged 2.5 goals for. In their lone away game, they scored 2 with 3.17 xGoals For.
Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 3.06 Goals For this post season but that number decreases to 2.56 when you just look at their away games. In Colorado’s 10 home playoff games, they’re averaging 2.00 goals against.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 3.5 including OT (+110/-140)
In the two regular season games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Avalanche averaged 3.5 goals for. In their lone home game, the scored 3 goals with 2.91 xGoals For.
Overall, Colorado has the highest scoring offense this post season averaging 4.64 goals for per game. At home, that number is slightly worse as they average 4.14 goals for per game.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Nikita Kucherov 0.5 points (-245/+190)
Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number is four of his last five games away from home. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.
Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+135/-170)
Alex Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on an eleven game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 points (-250/+190)
Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. At home, he has gone over this number in each of his last five games. In both regular season matchups against the Lightning he had at least one point.
Devon Toews 0.5 points (-135/+110)
Devon Toews has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. However, in his last five games at home he has only gone over this number twice. In the two regular season games against Tampa Bay, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.
Ondrej Palat 0.5 points (-120/-105)
Ondrej Palat has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. On the road, he has gone over this number in three of his last five games. In both regular season matchups against the Colorado he had at least one point.
Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 shots (-175/+135)
Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. However, in his last five home games he has only gone over that number twice. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.
Steven Stamkos 2.5 shots (-175/+135)
Steven Stamkos has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five games on the road he has also gone over this number in four of his last five. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.
Anthony Cirelli 1.5 shots (-155/+125)
Anthony Cirelli has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. However, in his last five away games he has only gone over that number twice. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 1.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 31.5 Saves (-125/-105)
In Tampa Bay’s series against New York, Vasilevskiy only recorded over 31.5 saves in two of those six games. However, if we look back a series before that, he recorded over 31.5 saves in each of those four games.
The Rangers don’t have the same offensive talent as Florida so that makes sense. Turning to Colorado, they’re arguably the best offensive team in the NHL, and frankly it’s not even a debate.
In their two games against the Avalanche this season, he recorded 24 and 44 saves. Colorado is averaging 40.7 shots on goal per game in the playoffs. At home, that number jumps up to 43.14 shots for per game. In terms of shots against, Tampa Bay averages 31.0 on the road and 31.9 overall.
Darcy Kuemper 28.5 Saves (-105/-120)
It looks as through Darcy Kuemper will start Game 1 of Stanley Cup Finals. We last saw Kuemper in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals where he had to leave the game due to injury. He did start all six games against the St. Louis Blues where he recorded over 28.5 saves in three of those games.
In their two games against the Lightning, he recorded 29 and 36 saves. Tampa Bay averages 32.5 shots on goal for per game this post season. On the road, that number goes down to 31.0. In terms of shots against, Colorado averages 28.43 at home and 28.2 overall.
Picks
Additional Series Picks
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We have a full MLB slate and have decided to give out 2 of our 4 Premium Plays for today! We are on a 16-7 (28% ROI) run over the past 23 plays and look to add to it today!!
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The Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners are taking on each other in a battle of two AL teams. The Mariners are towards the bottom of the AL West standings and are 28-34 overall this season with a record of 16-25 when playing as the underdog. The Twins are at the top of their division and are 36-28 overall with a 24-12 record as a favorite this season. Sonny Gray will be starting for the Twins today and he owns a 3-1 record with a 1.04 WHIP, .233 opponent BA, and 3.48 xFIP on the road this season. Gray has been excellent of late as he has posted a 1.42 ERA, .183 opponent wOBA, 27.1% K rate, 0.68 WHIP and 1.30 FIP while only walking 1 batter in his last 3 starts. The Mariners will send out lefty Marco Gonzales, who owns 3.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .240 BABIP and 5.29 FIP at home this season while giving up 6 home runs and 12 walks with 14 earned runs in 34 innings pitched at home. You gotta think that Gonzales will continue to regress against a good offense today. A Twins offense that ranks in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ in the past week and month. Seattle’s offense at home scores quite a few more runs than they do on the road. The Mariners average 4.48 runs per home game compared to 3.77 on the road while the Twins score nearly 5 runs per game on the road. Both of these bullpens are below average and rank in the bottom third of the MLB in ERA, FIP, HR/9, and BB% in the past 30 days. I expect Sonny Gray to limit this Seattle lineup and the Twins to at least 5 runs themselves to take us over this total. Take MIN (-131) and over 7.5 runs.
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I enjoyed a solid 3-1, +1.85u Tuesday and am back at it today with my highest volume card of the season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Rockies F5 ML(-115) vs Guardians–7:40 PM CT
This is just my 3rd multiunit play of the season(we’re 2-0 so far), and I couldn’t think of a more appropriate spot to make this designation. Rockies SP Austin Gomber is not a world-beater by any means and has certainly had his struggles on the road, but in Coors Field, the lefty has been a completely different pitcher. Last year, Gomber held a 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in Coors Field; if you take away a blowup start against the Braves, he’s continued to have success in this role this season. The Guardians are one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching(29th in OPS vs LHP) and managed just 4 runs in this dream environment last night. On the other side of things, this Rockies offense mashes left-handed pitching at Coors Field(.817 OPS). The Guardians will send rookie Konnor Pilkington to the hill today; while there are certain pitchers who acclimate well to this unique environment, I’m not going to assume a rookie will do so. Pilkington also has an unimpressive 1.54 WHIP, has struggled mightily with walks, and allowed 4 runs to the lowly Athletics in his last start. The stars align here to make Rockies F5 ML my 3rd multi-unit play of the season!
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(-113) vs White Sox–12:10 PM CT
When you see one of the worst teams in the league as a favorite against a clearly better team, the oddsmakers are giving you a clear hint. It’s not hard for me to bet against the White Sox right now given how many guys they are without; Jake Burger and Liam Hendriks joined Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminez, and Yasmani Grandal on the IL after getting hurt yesterday. The Tigers will have the pitching advantage not only to start the game but also in their bullpen. Tigers SP Alex Faedo has looked extremely impressive through 7 starts this season, going at least 5 innings in every start and allowing no more than 2 ER in any start. At the very least, Faedo is going to keep the Tigers in this game, although I think that might be selling him a bit short. The White Sox have shown subtle improvements against righties recently, but it’s still a role they’ve struggled in all season. White Sox SP Vince Velasquez is not a major league caliber starter, which is not too hard to see when you see his 5.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. I’m not even going to begin to try to find bright spots in this Tigers lineup, because there are none. However, the Tigers have a far deeper and more effective bullpen than the White Sox, and I think they’re able to get just enough production offensively to allow their pitching staff some wiggle room. Sign me up for probably the most telling line of the day.
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 5.5(-110) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
With the Phillies starting to come back down to earth, the Braves now hold the crown for “Hottest Team in Baseball”. Atlanta is a perfect 13-0 in the month of June, and in that stretch, they are averaging over 7 runs/game. They should have every chance to keep that trend rolling tonight facing off against a putrid set of arms. Nationals SP Erick Fedde holds an ugly set of numbers(4.87 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) and is walking a career high 4.4 batters per 9 innings. The Braves have destroyed Fedde in the past, so much so that 5 different projected starters for tonight have an OPS above 1.000 in their matchups with Fedde. After the subpar righty, Dave Martinez will have to rely on a bullpen that is a) not fresh, and b) ineffective(23rd in bullpen WHIP). Regular season baseball is a game of streaks; with the run the Braves are on right now combined with the little resistance they’ll face on the mound tonight, I expect another great showing from this offense.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT OVER 5.5(-115) vs Orioles–6:07 PM CT
You can usually find some positive in a player, but I really struggle to when looking at Orioles SP Bruce Zimmermann. In addition to holding a 5.52 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, Zimmermann has allowed at least 10 hits in each of his last 2 starts; that gets worse when you learn he faced the lowly Royals and Guardians. Toronto didn’t start off the season hot offensively, but here in the month of June, they are back to former selves, averaging just under 7 runs/game in this recent stretch. Zimmermann has a road ERA near 7.00 over the last 2 seasons, and he failed to make it out of the first inning in his lone start in Toronto. The back-end of the Orioles bullpen is better than you might imagine, but I don’t expect any of those guys to factor into this game given it should be a comfortable Jays victory. I’ve also noticed that, when they’re swinging the bats well, the Jays do a good job of not throwing at-bats away when the game is already decided. 5.5 for the home team is a bit of a premium, but it’s more than warranted considering this matchup.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-120) vs Brewers–6:10 PM CT
I gushed over the Mets offense yesterday(rightfully so), but I think they’re simply overmatched facing off against Corbin Burnes today. Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball by my estimation, and his most consistent role has actually been on the road; he held a 1.94 ERA and 0.79 WHIP away from home last year and has seemingly identical numbers here in 2022. While Burnes struggled a bit in his last outing against the Phillies, I think that speaks much more to the fact that the Phillies were in the best current form in the league at that time. The Mets were completely shut down by Yu Darvish last week in San Diego; with that cut-fastball, Burnes is a younger and better version of Darvish at this point in time. This is a very situational play, but given I get priced out of backing Burnes pretty routinely, this was too good for me to pass up.
Hump Day Card Features the 2022 NHL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR backed with a 15-0 Playoff Historical System and a Powerful MLB Platinum Supreme and another MLB TOP PROP. MLB Comp Play below
The MLB Comp play is on Atlanta at 7:05 eastern. The Braves are rolling and are 9-2 as a road favorite, 5-0 in game 3 of a series and 4-1 when Strider starts. Speaking of Strider he is killing it this year and has 57K/s in 38 innings and a solid 2.25 Era. Fedde for the Nationals has a 4.87 Era and has allowed 13 runs in his last 10 innings. He has lost 3 of 4 at home vs Atlanta. The Nats are 14-46 vs division teams and have dropped 31 of 42 at home vs a winning team as well as 20 of 26 here vs the Braves. Look for the Braves to get anther win/ On Wednesday we have our 2022 NHL Playoff Game Of The Year backed with a Powerful 15-0 Lead system and another MLB PLATINUM SUPREME Move as well as another Player MLB TOP Prop. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Braves. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Nice 3-1 night in MLB – and at least we got one more win in foreign basketball. More will come over time. The below discounts end in just 3 days!
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