0:00—Intro
2:43—South Dakota State vs Providence
8:31—Marquette vs North Carolina
12:48—Murray State vs San Francisco
16:52—Loyola Chicago vs Ohio State
21:36—USC vs Miami
26:48—Colgate vs Wisconsin
31:37—Outro
All of Michael’s information—> https://linktr.ee/fordhamsportsgambling
Wednesday:
Notre Dame vs Rutgers +1 O/U 132
This might be a home game in Dayton for Notre dame here. We have give them 1.5 for that. In saying that, I don’t think that the efficiency sites have it correct on the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers has had the harder strength of schedule than Notre Dame and I have to factor that in here. One matchup advantage that the St. Patty’s day boys have is that shoot a lot of 3s when ranking high at 19th in the nation in three point percentage at 37.7%. Rutgers isn’t good at defending it only ranking 202nd against the long ball. How Rutgers might win this game is that they are great inside. The Knights rank 35th in near proximity shots while Notre Dame ranks only 202nd defending it. That is huge and on a neutral court, rebounds will factor in more where Rutgers also has the advantage. If Rutgers can defend the long ball here, they can win this game and I think the senior leadership that they have in Omiyuri, Baker and Harper will stick out.
Rutgers +1.5 for 1 star
Uconn vs New Mexico State -6.5 O/U 133.5
This is pretty much a home game for UCONN being played in Buffalo New York. I really like what NM State has done this year and they have has some hiccups but they are a sneaky good team that matches up well with UCONN. Both teams have very good defense and will shut each other down inside. Neither team shoots the 3 that good and UConn doesn’t defend it that well. NM state’s big problem is turning the ball over and if that happens a lot it could be very bad, but the good thing is that the Huskies do not have a ball hawking defense and do not get many steals ranking 232nd in the nation. Even though the Huskies play in a much tougher conference and will be at home ish, I think that the Aggies are a very experienced team that got in some great transfers like Teddy Allen and Mario McKinney. I make the number Uconn -6 but I think that the 1st half under 61.5 makes a ton of sense.
1st half under 61.5 – 1.5 stars
Vermont vs Arkansas -5 O/U 139
This game is also in Buffalo NY, and much more of a home game for Vermont. Razorback fans will have to decide between Hogs and gas prices. Arkansas isn’t the greatest team away from home but they had a MUCH harder strength of schedule than Vermont did. Vermont actually has a pretty big matchup advantage from 3 ranking 38th in three point percentage while Arkansas ranks only 131st in defending it. This Vermont team didn’t play anyone but they are also not used to losing and it only happened once in overtime since December 7th. I like this game close
Play Vermont +5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
I enjoyed a nice 2-0 Tuesday which included a free play winner on Texas Southern. In addition to tonight’s free play, I have 3 plays reserved for my premium members. Click here to become a premium member and have all of my best plays sent to you every day.
*NBA(1u): Celtics/Warriors UNDER 220(-110)–9 PM CT
This prime time game should feature as close to a “playoff” atmosphere as we’re going to find with still a month left in the regular season. The Warriors recently hit a bump in the road, but they have responded with 4 straight wins. Golden State has held the top-ranked defense all season long, but the offense hasn’t been quite as dominant as you’d think, especially in these tougher matchups. Andrew Wiggins is not 100% to play tonight, which could be a key development for a team that needs consistency around Steph Curry. Boston ranks right up there with Golden State in defensive efficiency metrics, and they’ve honestly been superior on that end of the floor over the last 1.5 months. Each of these teams is averaging less than 100 possessions/game over their last 3 games, and I’d only expect that trend to continue given the competitive atmosphere. This total doesn’t quite do justice to what should be a “no easy buckets” type of game. I like the Under here.
*CBB(1.5u): Rutgers/Notre Dame 1H UNDER 63(-110)–8:10 PM CT
1H Under’s are always going to be a good way to look early in the NCAA Tournament as teams adjust to the unfamiliar environment, but it sets up especially well in this matchup. Notre Dame holds pretty good offensive metrics this season, but they didn’t face very many defenses as physical as Rutgers’ playing in the ACC this season. Think about all the explosive offenses that Rutgers faced playing in the Big Ten; they’re not going to bat an eye facing an Irish attack that only relies on good shooting for points. With that said, Rutgers’ offense can best be described as ugly; there isn’t much to suggest that they’ll come out hot either. Each of these teams runs at a very slow pace(ND: 250th, Rutgers: 289th) and likes to play in the half-court, which should set up for a very low-scoring first half. This is tonight’s best bet, which is saying something given how much I like this card.
*NBA(1u): Cavaliers +4(-110) vs 76ers–6 PM CT
This is a prime spot for Cleveland to make a statement against a team that has beaten them twice over the last month. Both of those games took place in Philly, and while the Cavs were competitive in each, Philly ultimately pulled away. However, the 76ers simply aren’t playing good basketball at the moment. They’ve dropped back-to-back home games against the Nets and Nuggets and needed Overtime to pick up a road win against the lowly Magic. Jarrett Allen being out is a big loss for Cleveland, but they’ve had enough time without him to adjust their rotation. This is a great spot for Caris LaVert to have his first big game as a Cavalier. I like these revenge angles a lot, especially involving a team that has been feisty at home all year. I’ll take the points.
*NBA(1u): Hawks/Hornets OVER 241(-110)–6 PM CT
This is about as clear-cut of an Over spot as we’re going to find. These are two of the best offenses in the league, but each are allergic to playing defense. The home team(Charlotte) is much more likely to dictate the pace, which is ideal since Charlotte ranks 2nd in tempo this season. The Hornets are also in great current form offensively, averaging 138 points over their last 2 games. Don’t let this high total scare you; this eerily similar to the Timberwolves/Spurs matchup we saw a few nights ago, a game that featured a combined 288 points. I like this up to 243.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the Midwest Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll put a post up every evening from now until Thursday saving the Friday games for last.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here in the Midwest and these games are in the Midwest region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the Midwest games
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi– 5:40 PM Tuesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
8 San Diego State 9 vs Creighton – 6:27 PM Thursday in Fort Worth, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
6 LSU vs 11 Iowa State – 6:20 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Colgate – 8:50 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
7 USC vs 10 Miami (FL) – 2:10 PM Friday in Greenville, SC
2 Auburn vs 15 Jacksonville State – 11:40 AM Friday in Greenville, SC
1 Kansas (-21.5) vs 16 Texas Southern O/U 144.5– Watch the lines, but I’d expect Kansas to run away and hide early. This isn’t the best Kansas team to make the tourney, but they are certainly good enough to dominate against Texas Southern. I don’t see much of an edge here on the opening lines, and Might look at first half Kansas if around 11.
5 Iowa (-10.5) vs 12 Richmond O/U 150.5 – Let’s start with this. Iowa got hosed as a 5 seed. 12-8 in conference and win the Big Ten Tourney winning 4 straight games, plus 12-2 in last 14. This reminds me of Wisconsin in 2004 when they went 12-4 in conference, won the tourney and got a 6 seed. I think the committee has everything decided going into the last few games no matter what happens. Iowa had lots of injuries early, and it only really started playing defense in the second half of season. Iowa hasn’t made it to the second weekend in 15 years, but I think this is the year. Richmond won the A-10 tourney to punch their ticket, but this isn’t a team that deserves to be here and this isn’t the 12/5 match-up to pick an upset in. I like Iowa to jump out early and Richmond will try and push to catch-up which I think only puts them in a deeper hole. I’m on Keegan Murray and the 3 Point barrage that the Spiders are about to endure to cover this big spread. Iowa – 10.5 2 Units.
4 Providence (-2) vs 13 South Dakota State O/U 149.5 – Let’s start with this. Providence is 25-5 and was 14-3 in the Big East. “But Knoche??” You ask, “They were only 4-3 down the stretch and got blasted by Creighton in the Big East Championship” Well 2 of those losses were close losses to Villanova. Providence is the luckiest team in the country according to Kenpom, but sometimes you create your own luck. Creighton shot lights out from 3 in the game in the Big East Tourney, and that is concerning with their opponent here. South Dakota State is the top 3 point shooting team in the country hitting 45%. South Dakota State is not very deep and they like to run and push tempo. That works against St. Thomas Minnesota and UMKC, but against a battle tested Big East team who is used to a slower tempo it may be tougher for them to run like they want to, and if they get into foul trouble inside it could spell disaster. I’m pulling for an upset because I love watching the Jackrabbits, but I am staying off this game for now. This is the shortest 4/13 line in 37 years and right now Providence is getting 38% of the bets and 26% of the $. This is screaming trap game to me so I am staying away for now, but lean Providence and will likely be on them small come game time.
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After breaking down the two Thursday games in my last post, let’s look at 3 games in this South Region that will tip off on Friday! I’ll be back later tonight with 3 more game breakdowns in this region that will tip off on Friday night.
Ohio State(PK) vs Loyola Chicago O/U 132.5–Friday 11:15 AM CT
Public sentiment is down on the Buckeyes after they closed out the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. You could think of this as somewhat of a buy low spot, but Loyola Chicago presents a tough matchup for them. The Ramblers rank 22nd overall in defensive efficiency and also sit in the Top 20 in both FG% and 3PT%. Ohio State, on the other hand, has seen their defensive efficiency rating drop all the way below 130th; rarely do teams that defend at that poor of a clip have much success in March. Loyola Chicago is also the more experienced team that is coming off a Sweet 16 appearance last season, while the Buckeyes laid an egg in the first round against Oral Roberts. The one thing that OSU does much better than Loyola is protect the rim, as they average 2.5 more blocks/game than the Ramblers. Ohio State also has really good offensive metrics, played the tougher schedule this season, and has the much more experienced Head Coach. With all that said, this Buckeyes team is not built to make a deep run in March. Loyola can go toe-to-toe with the Buckeyes offensively while simultaneously playing better defense, so I could only look towards the Ramblers in this one. While this total might seem low for an Ohio State game, each of these teams ranks in the bottom 25% in tempo. While we know teams tend to come out of the gates slow, I think this total in the low 130’s has factored that in. Loyola Chicago PK is my best look in this game.
Villanova(-15.5) vs Delaware O/U 133.5–1:45 PM CT
Villanova is fresh off of a Big East title run, and given Jay Wright’s reputation in March paired with the experience on this roster, I’m not going to get cute and bet against them here. That being said, this Wildcats team isn’t exactly explosive offensively, shooting just 43.7% from the floor this season. They make up for that by holding the best free throw rate in the country, but that element is much more likely to show up in a close game that comes down to the wire. Given ‘Nova runs at one of the slowest paces in the country, it’s hard for me to lay 15.5 points with them in what should be a low variance game. Delaware is another veteran-laden team that is efficient from the floor, but they rank just 212th in defensive efficiency, likely because they grab defensive rebounds at only the 305th best rate in the country. In an early season matchup against a similar style team in Davidson, the Blue Hens were blown out 93-71. I don’t expect to have a play on this game, but if I had to play it, I would lean towards the Under 133.5 or Delaware TT UNDER given possessions should be at a premium.
Illinois(-7.5) vs Chattanooga O/U 135.5–Friday 5:50 PM CT
Call me crazy, but I think Chattanooga could keep this game close. The Mocs are a very experienced team that does a lot of little things very well; they make 75.2% of their free throws and also pick up offensive rebounds at a Top 50 rate. However, Illinois has a huge X-factor in Center Kofi Cockburn, who averaged 21.1 PPG and 10.6 RPG playing in the country’s best conference. Chattanooga blocks just 2.2 shots/game, and I worry how they’ll respond facing such a dominant post presence. Illinois is also very trustworthy offensively given they can also make 3’s at a high rate and hold a 1.3 assist/turnover ratio(33rd in CBB). On paper, it would appear the rebounding battle could be neck-and-neck, but then again, I think there’s a world in which Cockburn totally takes over this game. That unknown keeps me off of the Chattanooga side, and in all honesty, I think this number is about right to begin with. Chattanooga is a slow-paced team that is going to want to keep this game in the halfcourt and make the Illini offense stagnant, and Illinois has proven that it will adjust its pace based off their opponent. For that reason, I lean towards the 1H UNDER; I want to stay away from the full game Under given each team should theoretically settle in after Halftime and each team can make their foul shots. This is one of the more exciting matchups we’ll have on Friday, but there might be more value found elsewhere.
We have a massive show for you today! Nick Hub from The OddsBreakers is on to discuss a massive Thursday of games, info picks and leans! First, Kiev reminds everyone to get in our free bracket challenge to win $500! Next, Nick comes on and the guys talk a little NFL, MLB and bracket information. Then, the guys get right into the Thursday of the NCAA tournament with a pick or a lean on every single game! Hope you enjoy and best of luck with your betting and your brackets! Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
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What a Sunday Monday finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Cam Smith at 35-1 wins it shooting a 66 on the final round to narrowly edge out Anirban Lahiri. With that victory, Cam Smith took home the $3.6 million dollar prize in addition to a three year exemption to the majors and a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour. That was his second win of the year as he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions back in January.
Betting wise we struggled last week as none of our outrights or top 20 hit but, we did manage to cash on Sergio Top 40. Over the past six weeks we are still up +24.52 Units.
The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree lined fairways which is something you don’t see to often in the Sunshine state. We still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. This weeks event will obviously take a backseat to March Madness starting. Let’s get into this weeks event and find some winners.
Tournament Information:
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course/ Tournament History:
In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned last year in April where Sam Burns captured his first win on the PGA Tour.
Innisbrook Resort has four courses; Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.
The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was the part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.
This is one of the newer events on Tour making it’s debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that stretch of time, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled holding down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and have been the presenting sponsor since then.
Multiple players have won this event twice including K.J. Choi (2002,2006), Retief Goosen (2003,2009), and most recently Paul Casey (2018,2019). Vijay Singh holds the course record shooting an 18 under par when he won the event back in 2004.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only six holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were Hole No. 2 and Hole No. 12.
The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and treelined fairways. Most tee shots can very intimidating shot strokes driving accuracy is going to be something to look at this week. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Last year we saw six of the top twelve guys lose strokes off the tee so while it’s important, it’s not necessarily the key path to victory. Sam Burns key to victory last year was through his approach play and putting. This course is built for ball strikers and when looking at the field some popular plays are going to be Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland, Abraham Ancer, Joaquin Niemann etc. They all have a pretty good course history as well. One player to watch out for is Justin Thomas. If he can figure out his putting stroke, he should run away with this event, but that’s a massive if.
There’s five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 15 that played just 0.047 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 13 that played 0.2 strokes under past in 2021.
The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.
The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is plays 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.
Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.
Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, the tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players some how hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.
Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.
To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
The Field/ Odds:
No Rahm this week so Justin Thomas leads the field in terms of odds. He’s currently around 11-1 on most books followed by Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa both listed at 12-1. It’s a pretty top heavy field with Dustin Johnson rounding out the group of players listed 20-1 or under. None of these guys have won this event before with the best finish going to Viktor Hovland who finished 3rd at Innisbrook last year. While this event does usually favor elite ball-strikers, it’ll be interesting to see if any of them can get hot putting which they all usually struggle with. If any of them do have a solid week on the green they should run away with this event. I didn’t play any of the favorites this week but if you’re looking to take one I would pick Viktor Hovland.
Previous winners in the field include Sam Burns (2021), Paul Casey (2019,2018), Adam Hadwin (2017), Charles Schwartzel (2016), Kevin Streelman (2013), Luke Donald (2012), and Gary Woodland (2011).
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
Picks (Outright):
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Knox is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour ranking 10th. He’s also a great iron player ranking 8th in Strokes Gained approach. Knox should be able to set himself up nicely off the tee and use his irons to his advantage this week. His putting is always a concern but he has gained strokes putting in two of his last four tournaments. Hopefully the flat stick comes to play this week.
Just like Knox, Kisner is one of the most accurate players off the tee. He’s struggled with this approach game this year but finished still managed to finish 4th last week despite losing strokes on his approach game. Kisner is one of the best putters on Tour and last year we saw Sam Burns putting propel him to a victory here at Innisbrook. I’m not sure Kisner can win this thing but I do like him to finish close to the top of the leaderboard especially given his form.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Bubba’s currently -125 on DraftKings so this is a value bet. He’s finished 4th and 13th here in his last two appearances at Innisbrook. Compared to the field since 2016, he ranks 7th in SG- ATG, 7th in SG- T2G, and 5th in SG-OTT. His course history is impeccable here so given the plus money at a Top 40 finish, I’ll take that everyday.
Just like Bubba, Noren is currently -125 on DraftKings for a Top 40 finish. While he does struggle off the tee, he ranks 39th in strokes gained approach and 57th in strokes gained putting, two crucial stats. He’s finished inside the Top 40 in four of his past five tournaments and finished 21st last year in this event.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 4.00 Units
SG Data at the Valspar Championship since 2016: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
