Will provide more detailed write-ups tomorrow – here’s some plays I hit already for Wednesday.
Over the next day, I will be releasing previews of the 8 Opening Round games in the South Region of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Let’s start with the 2 games taking place on Thursday!
Michigan(-2.5) vs Colorado State O/U 139.5–Thursday 11:15 AM CT
Michigan had a turbulent final month of their season, alternating wins and losses over their final 9 games. However, by playing in the toughest conference in the country, the Wolverines are a battle-tested bunch that has had to play the 6th hardest schedule in the country. Colorado State is very similarly rated metrics wise to Michigan, although the Rams are actually slightly more efficient in FG%, 3PT%, FT%, and Assist-Turnover ratio. The one area where the Wolverines hold a sizable advantage is in the rebounding department; Michigan ranks 44th in defensive rebounding %, while the Rams rank in the bottom 30 in offensive rebounding %. This means the Rams can’t afford an off-day in the shooting department as second-chance points are likely to be at a premium for them. Michigan is the much bigger(and taller) team, meaning the Wolverines should have their way in the paint. One big advantage the Rams have is that this team ranks 18th in continuity, meaning their lineup has logged a ton of minutes together; this is a key area that can’t be overlooked at this point in the year. In that same category, Michigan ranks just 246th, and their 296th experience ranking won’t help either. All in all, this is a tough game for me to give a strong opinion on given Michigan’s volatility towards the end of the season. I will add that neither team likes to push the pace, so given what we know about teams struggling to find a rhythm in their first game of the Tournament, perhaps a 1st Half Under is worth a look. If I had to play a side, I’d lean towards Colorado State given their continuity and slightly better offensive metrics. Lean 1H UNDER; Slight Lean Colorado State +2.5.
Tennessee(-17) vs Longwood–1:45 PM CT
Tennessee is on everyone’s radar after running the table in the SEC Tournament and winning 12 of their final 13 games. This Vols team plays an elite brand of defense(#3 in KenPom), but this is also a team that shoots just 43% from the floor and can go into long droughts on that end of the floor. If you’ve followed me, you know I am not a believer in this Tennessee team. As Chris Fillicia(friend of the OddsBreakers) pointed out yesterday, Rick Barnes is just 1-11-1 ATS in his last 13 tournament games. Longwood shoots the 3-ball at the 19th best rate in the country, and despite being one of the smallest teams in the country, they rank in the Top 55 in both offensive and defensive rebounding %. Like many of these smaller conference teams, though, the Lancers played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Their only 2 “big” non-conference games came against Iowa(33 point loss) and Georgetown(8 point loss), so it’s hard to expect them to to step up in competition against what’s still a very good Tennessee team. The Vols are far superior in the interior, so Longwood’s only real shot to hang in this game is to get hot from beyond the arc. While I’m not a believer in Tennessee, they shouldn’t have much trouble winning this game comfortably. No opinion at this point.
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Indiana vs Wyoming (Hoosiers favored by 4, 132.5 total)
Indiana comes in 4-0 at neutral sites and 14-8 as favorite while Wyoming 8-5 as a dog and 7-2 as away dog. These are 2 very tall teams as Indiana ranks 44th in average team height and Wyoming is 9th. Indiana depth is a big advantage, especially if Wyoming’s star, Maldonado, gets into foul trouble. Only 20.9% of the Cowboys minutes come from the bench, ranking 342nd in the nation. Wyoming is a more balanced offense where as Indiana likes to get it inside the arc more, scoring 55.7% of their points as a 2-point shot which will neutralize the strength of the Cowboys defense as they are 32nd in defending from deep but the Hoosiers shoot just 31.8% of their shots from beyond the arc. At the other end, Wyoming shoot well inside the arc and not so well from deep but the Hoosiers are 7th in the nation at defending the 2 point shot. Neither team is good at second chance points or turning the ball over, so I will lean towards the under and Indiana to get Wyoming in foul trouble and cover this spread.
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*CBB(1u): Texas Southern -3.5(-110) vs A&M Corpus Christi–5:40 PM CT
Texas Southern has multiple advantages under their belt entering this matchup. While the Tigers play in a very weak conference, this team played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, which included road matchups with Oregon, St Mary’s, BYU, and Florida(15 point win). A&M Corpus, on the other hand, played THE easiest schedule out of all 358 teams in the country. In addition, this is a very experienced Texas Southern team. Coach Johnny Jones is in his 20th season as a D1 Head Coach, and he has the 3rd most experienced roster in the country. On the contrary, Islanders HC Steve Lutz is a 1st year HC. Beyond that, I think the physicality edge also goes to the Tigers, who rank 19th in offensive-rebound rate and block 5 shots/game. Comparatively, the Islanders block just 1.7 shots/game and rank just 230th in defensive-rebound rate. There are certainly drawbacks to this TSU team, particularly in some of their shooting metrics as well as their horrendous 0.7 assist-turnover ratio. However, in this environment, A&M Corpus might only shoot marginally better and still get worked in all of the aforementioned areas. TSU has better prepared themselves to play in this type of environment, and I think they end up pulling away in this one.
*NBA(1u): Suns 1H -3(-110) @ Pelicans–7 PM CT
The Pelicans stumble into this matchup having lost 4 out of their last 5, with the average margin of those losses at 14.3 PPG. Brandon Ingram remains out for New Orleans, but they could welcome back CJ McCollum tonight after he has spent nearly a week in the health/safety protocols. With this being his first game back, however, I don’t envision him jumping right back into peak form, and that’s especially true early in this game. Phoenix is one of the most trustworthy teams in the league, and they enter this game off of a 29 point win vs the Lakers. Monty Williams has adjusted his rotation nicely to Chris Paul’s absence. If the Suns can go on the road and beat Miami by 13 like they did last week, then they can certainly take care of business in this spot. I like Phoenix most in the 1H given I want to play against McCollum while he’s shaking off the rust early in this game.
Thursday:
Memphis vs Boise State +2.5 O/U 133.5
Let’s start out by saying that Memphis was injured for half the season in the middle from December to Late January, but they are now healthy and ready to try and make in run. Now Memphis is a favorite here and I really do not like them in this spot. The Tigers only ranks 342 away from home while Boise ranks a nice 15th. In saying that, Memphis is very sloppy with the ball ranking 252nd in turnovers and Boise should be able to force turnovers. I also do not like that Memphis is a bad FT shooting team at 69.2%. Not good for favorites. The Broncos on the other hand are a well put together team that likes to fight. They aren’t great at anything but they are certainly not bad at anything minus shooting FTs themselves. Memphis has more talent but I’ll take Leon Rice over Penny Hardaway any day of the week!
Play Boise State but wait for 3
Georgia State vs Gonzaga -23 O/U 148
Over 148 – 2.5 stars
Tuesday (play in games)
Texas A&M CC vs Texas Southern -3.5 O/U 136
Texas A&M CC does very well away from home ranking 11h in the nation on Haslametrics to Sothern’s 211th. Let’s face it, both teams are bad at shooting but both teams play pretty fast with Corpus Christi ranking 29th in average possession length and Texas Southern ranking 148th. The Islanders haven’t scored below 65 points since February 24th and before that was January 20th. They average 73.8 points per game while the Tigers average 69.2. Both teams are sloppy and turn the ball over often. My number is Texas Southern -5 and my total is 142 so I will play the over.
Over 136 – 2 stars
Indiana vs Wyoming +4 O/U 132
Indiana made a very nice run in the Big 10 tournament, but I will say that the Big 10 tournament really sucked this year and most of the teams laid eggs. Both teams rank in the low 200s away from home. Indiana will have a 2 point home court advantage in Dayton being so close to home. Indiana should dominate this game inside with their size and Trace Jackson-Davis being the stud that he is. Indiana -4.5 is my number and the total is about right.
Lean Indiana -4
Thursday
Michigan vs Colorado State +2.5 O/U 139
Well, Michigan got in and that’s all that matters because it’s all about the line here. The Wolverine’s should have a home field advantage here of -1 or so. Michigan has not been great away from home ranking 253rd to Colorado State at 64th. Let’s face it, the big 10 is a much harder conference than the Mountain west and we have to factor that in. Michigan has been pretty inconsistent this year but Colorado State hasn’t done great without their crowd. Both teams should be able to score down low as both defenses are terrible in near proximity but Michigan is the taller teams and should do better. I have Michigan -3 here and I might play them if line gets better.
Lean Michigan -2.5
South Dakota State vs Providence -2 O/U 148.5
This line is just disrespectful to me. Providence is a very solid big East team who has also been lucky, but they are still the second best in the Big East and should be able to dominate the Jackrabbits inside. The Friars have had a much harder schedule than the Jackrabbits and there is no two ways about it. Now South Dakota State is the best 3 point shooting team in the nation. If Providence falls asleep and doesn’t work on the high ball screens on defense, they could get crushed. You have to think that Ed Cooley knows that? It would be a massive coaching blunder if he doesn’t. If it were me coaching, I would allow the ball to go inside much more than allowing them open looks at the perimeter. Providence -3.5 O/U 152 is my number which I think is very fair to South Dakota State playing in such an easy conference. Some of their earlier losses to Idaho and Missouri State are also telling to me. Fade the public perception here.
Providence -2 – 2 stars
A nice 3-1 start to the week in single plays and that parlay was sooooo close to hitting with Milwaukee, too. Solid +3.5 unit Monday and we move on to Tuesday. Unfortunately, the NBA slate today is absolutely gross, with very limited value. I have two picks that I like/don’t love – tread with caution today.
