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March 29th Plays(1 CBB, 1 NBA)

By
Michael Fordham
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I enjoyed a nice 1-0-1, +1u night to start out the week! Today, I’m back at it with 2 more plays for you. If you want to receive a text whenever I release my plays, consider joining my Telegram group: https://t.me/fordhamsportsgambling. My plays are also posted on Twitter, so follow me there @FordhamGambling. Let’s have ourselves a Tuesday!

*CBB(1u): St Bonaventure ML(-125) vs Xavier–6 PM CT

I haven’t had much action on the NIT, but now that we’re into the Semifinals, the teams that didn’t want to be there have now been weeded out. While you have to give Xavier credit for getting to this point, St Bonaventure has had the much tougher path. The Bonnies won 3 straight road games at Colorado, Oklahoma, and Virginia, while Xavier enjoyed 3 home games, 1 of which came against lowly Cleveland State and another that came against Florida, a team that had clearly raised up the white flag after missing the NCAA Tournament. The Bonnies have the 5th most experienced team in the country and clearly want to win this Tournament for their seniors, and I think they’ll have a good chance to do that tonight. Interim HC Jonas Hayes has done a good job getting Xavier to this point, but his Musketeers bunch is very inconsistent on the offensive end of the floor. While Xavier has the edge in the rebounding department, we’ve seen Bonnies C Osun Osunniyi become a difference-maker down low; he comes into tonight blocking almost 3 shots/game this season. I don’t like betting on motivation alone, but when you consider St Bonaventure’s makeup and all the hurdles they’ve had to climb to get here, I have a hard time seeing them drop this game. I’ll take them on the ML rather than lay the 1.5 considering their last 2 games were decided by 1 and 2 points. 

*NBA(1u): Lakers +12(-110) @ Mavericks–6 PM CT

I have been the first one to talk down on this Lakers team, but this spread is simply too high. Dallas is a very solid team(particularly on the defensive end), but given they aren’t dominant on the offensive end, it’s not a team I would lay double-digits with. Obviously, LeBron James is doubtful for the Lakers tonight with an ankle ailment, but do you really think the Lakers are just going to throw in the towel without him? This is a team that has a mere 0.5 game lead over San Antonio for the 10 seed, so I have a hard time imagining the motivation won’t be there for LAL tonight. LeBron is great, but he can consistently be seen loafing and draws a lot of double teams. The role players who step up in his place tonight don’t have the luxury of not playing hard; if the Lakers bring some intensity on the defensive end of the floor, they can stop a Mavs offense that is really centered around 1 guy(Luka Doncic). The Lakers were obviously overvalued for far too long, but even with LeBron likely sitting, this line has moved too far in the other direction. I feel comfortable about taking the Lakers at this number. 

*Jazz/Clippers Note

I have some interest in this Jazz/Clippers game, but I imagine the line is going to move once we get clarity around the status of Paul George, Bojan Bogdanovich, and Rudy Gobert. If I do add a play in this game, I will tweet it out(@FordhamGambling) and send it out to my Telegram group(https://t.me/fordhamsportsgambling). 

Rob V: Tuesday NBA System Play + NIT, NHL and World Cup Soccer Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Big Tuesday Card has our World Cup Qualifier of the Year in Soccer Action, a Rare 6* in NIT Tournament action and another TOP Play in NHL Action. NBA Comp Play below.
 
The NBA Comp Play is on Chicago at 7:10 eastern. The Bulls were beat in NY last night. Since 2014 road favorites with no rest have covered all 5 times if they are off a road favored loss and are taking on a team like Washington that scored 115 or more in a home dog win in their last game. The Bulls have covered 8 of the last 10 here in the series and 8 of 10 on Tuesdays. The Wizards have failed to cover 6 of 7 vs .600 or better opposition, 15 of 20 with 1 day of rest and 7 of 10 as a home dog. Look for Chicago to bounce back with a cover. On Tuesday we have our World Cup Qualifier Play of the Year in Soccer, a Rare 6* IN NIT Tournament action and a Perfect NHL System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we continue to cash. For the NBA Comp play. Go with Chicago.Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

MLB Season Preview Part 2/7 – NL Central

By
Shawn Knoche
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Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.

NL CENTRAL

Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

Milwaukee Brewers -205/ 90.5

St. Louis Cardinals +200/ 84.5

Chicago Cubs +1000/ 75.5

Cincinnati Reds +1200/ 75.5

Pittsburgh Pirates +3300/ 65.5

Milwaukee Brewers – The Brew Crew is the class of this division. The pitching staff rivals anyone in baseball and they are primed to make a run at winning the whole thing. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are already viewed as aces, and I think Freddy Peralta will be better than both of them once he reaches a full season with no innings limits. Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer make up what could be the best #4 and #5 starters in baseball as well. The Brewers are going to win almost every game they lead going into the 8th inning with Devin Williams and Josh Hader at the back of the bullpen. The star power in the lineup hasn’t lived up to expectations the last few years as Christian Yelich has not performed up to par, but they got some great production last year out of Luis Urias, Willy Adames and Kolten Wong. The biggest piece of the puzzle for me is the addition of Hunter Renfroe. He has 40 HR power and could easily do that in the home run haven that is The Park formerly known as Miller. If Yelich figures out his swing again and Keston Hiura also fulfills his potential this could be a very dangerous lineup as well. Prediction 94-68

St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals have high expectations with a new manager and a roster that is mostly the same versus a year ago. That version of the Cardinals won 90 games, and the top of the order with Edman, Goldschmidt, O’neill and Arenado remains imposing. The bottom of the order leaves some to be desired for a team that finished middle of the pack in the NL in runs scored and OPS. The rotation is anchored by Adam Wainwright who will be one of three Cardinals making their farewell tours this year along with Yadier Molina and the recently acquired Albert Pujols. Jack Flaherty’s health will play a big role in if the rest of the rotation can succeed. There is a very low Strikeout ceiling from the rotation so they will need to get ground balls at a high clip to be effective. The bullpen back end features Giovanny Gallegos and Jordan Hicks, but lacks solid depth otherwise. Prediction 81-81

Chicago Cubs – As a Cubs fan last season was the end of an era for me. Blessed to have gotten to see my team win a World Series and saddened that the pieces that brought the town that title were shipped out. Gone are Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. Replaced by Frank Schwindel, Jonathan Villar and Nick Madrigal. This team has gone from having the most potent lineup in baseball to one that will need to rely on speed and manufacturing runs to be competitive. They did sign international free agent Seiya Suzuki to bring a big bat to the middle of the lineup. The starting rotation is Kyle Hendriks who struggled last year and a list of journeymen including Wade Miley, Drew Smyly, and Marcus Stroman. The bullpen could be a strength for the team until most of it gets traded in July. Don’t look for much magic on the north side this year. Just enjoy the atmosphere at Wrigley and the ice cold Old Style Beer. Prediction 75-87

Cincinnati Reds – Even after letting Nick Castellanos walk, A month ago the Reds were contenders in the division. Then GM Nick Krall stated, “Going into 2022, we must align our payroll to our resources.” Since then they traded All-Star Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Sonny Gray out of town and have officially removed themselves from contention. 52 Year old Ken Griffey Junior is now the 6th highest payroll expense this season for the Reds getting paid 3.6 million in deferred payments. There is still talent in the lineup with Jonathan India and Joey Votto, but not much else. The pitching staff is currently hurting with Mike Minor and Luis Castillo both nursing shoulder issues. Tyler Mahle is the only remaining starter with extensive big league experience. The bullpen will likely look to Hunter Strickland to close as Lucas Sims is also hurt. This team went downhill fast and injuries could tank them even more. Prediction 73-89

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Bucs are still in rebuild mode as Bryan Reynolds enters the season as the only above replacement player from 2021 in the opening day lineup. That is not good folks. The rebuild is starting to reach the majors though and Ke’Bryan Hayes will get his first full season under his belt and another top prospect O’neill Cruz will soon make his debut. The “ace” of the rotation is Jose Quintana I guess….who couldn’t hold down a starting job anywhere last year. The bullpen is likely the best portion of this team although that isn’t saying much. Look out for the Pirates in 2026. Prediction 67-95

My Free plays on the NL Central are as follows:

My subscribers got some key insight earlier this month. I saw the Reds GM comment and told people to grab the Brewers to win the central at -113. Most were able to get it between -113 and -130. It is now probably correctly priced at -205. I still like it there, but the Cards always seem to have a knack to hang around, that is really the only other team with a shot in the central. I also think the Reds will struggle to hit their number even as it adjusted down to 75.5. I got it at 78.5, but I’m still making a smaller play here at the current number

Milwaukee Brewers -205 to win Central. Risk 2.05 to win 1 Unit

Milwaukee Brewers over 90.5 wins – 2.5 Units

Cincinnati Reds under 75.5 wins – 1 Unit

 

 

 

 

Laying the Points with FarleyBets: NBA Picks Pod – March 29, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Bulls in a game.

 

Chris covers the entire NBA Slate for Tuesday and goes over some intangibles to consider leading up to the postseason! Check out the show and subscribe!

Current NBA Record: 256-201 (56%), +73.15 units
Translation: We win, a lot. Click here for my premiums every day in your inbox!

 

 

Premiums, 3.29

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Idk about you guys but I’m getting REAL SICK of bad beat city every other night. Raptors/Celtics under loses b/c of OT. The Raptors win by 3 and don’t cover, even though we got 4 points of CLV. Unreal. It takes a lot of mental discipline and positive redirecting to get through some of this shit and stay confident but alas, that’s what we do. Onto the next!

NBA Picks:
  • Bucks ML (+103 at BetOnline, 1.5 units to win 1.55 units)
    • The fun thing about this game is it comes down to power ratings. It’s basically a pick-em, with two teams vying for the #2 spot in the East (and still very much in contention for the #1 seed), and I’m going to assume it has a playoff feel. The Bucks are rated considerably higher than the Sixers for me, and since Philly hasn’t played very well at home, I capped this at Bucks -2.5. The best value play in these situations is the moneyline. Philly won the last contest behind a big Embiid game – I think Giannis and a more up-to-par Bucks’ defense rules this game.
  • Bulls -4, 2 units
    • This line is wrong. The Wizards have won 2 games in a row and Chicago is off of a back to back, but I say who gives a shit in both cases. The Bulls are in very real danger of dropping back into the play-in tournament by the time the postseason begins. They don’t want that – teams like the Nets, Hornets, and Hawks will be awaiting – all teams that can obliterate Chicago offensively. I think the Bulls get right here and cover. Their schedule gets MUCH harder down the stretch – can’t afford to blow this one.
  • Nets -13.5, 1 unit
    • Huge line, but it’s just such an ideal smash spot for Brooklyn after a loss. Night night Pistons, Kyrie and Durant might score a combined 200 in this one.
CBB Lookahead Picks:
  • Kansas -4.5, 1 unit
    • I want Villanova, but Kansas can turn on their offense in a way that few other squads can. Kansas is expected to win so they should control the pace and I think that overwhelms the Wildcats.
  • NC +4, 1.5 units
    • I love a good story, too, but there’s NO CHANCE I’m not taking NC here. Revenge spot, Coach K spot for Duke; I get it. But NC is not scared and all the pressure is on the Blue Devils.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

NHL Preview & Picks – March 28th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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Small slate of the NHL games tonight. We really only have one good matchup but, tomorrow’s games should be excellent. I’ll breakdown the Sabres vs the Blackhawks and offer some insight into my pick on that game.

 

Buffalo Sabres @ Chicago Blackhawks

  • Time: 8:30 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Buffalo Sabres: 23-33-10, 6th Atlantic (11-17-5 Away)
  • Chicago Blackhawks: 24-32-10,7th Central (11-16-5 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Buffalo Sabres +128 +145 +1.5 (-170) o6.0 (-105)
Chicago Blackhawks -155 -175 -1.5 (+150) u6.0 (-115)

 

Trends:

  • Over is 3-0-1 in Blackhawks last 4 overall.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games.
  • Buffalo are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
  • Chicago are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.

 

Previous Matchups:

  • None this season

 

Preview:

The Buffalo Sabres have seemed to find their groove as of late going 5-3-2 in their last 10. They’ve collected at least one point in each of their last 5 games. They’re coming off a hard fought game last night where they lost to the New York Rangers 5-4 in OT.

Chicago has also been playing slightly better in their most recent games, collecting at least one point in their last 3. In their most recent game, which was on Saturday, they lost 5-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights in OT.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams since this season, so we don’t really have much information on how they’ll match up. The opening line was set at -155 favoring the Blackhawks and has jumped to -175. The Sabres aren’t good when playing games on back to back days going 2-6-4. However, as I mentioned before, they seem to be finally clicking as a team so I don’t want to put too much emphasis on that.

As of late the Buffalo has trending below their season average in terms of Goals For averaging 2.40 in their last 10. The Sabres have scored 3 or more goals in their last 4 for a more recent sample size. They’ve been better defensively only giving up an average of 3.10 goals against compared to their season average of 3.48.

Chicago on the other hand has found a spark up front averaging 3.70 goals for in their last 10. When looking at their season average of 2.65 goals for per game, they’re playing much better. This isn’t due to their shots on goal as that number has remained constant but, rather their shooting percentage which is 4% higher than their season average. Defensively, Chicago has been slightly worse as of late giving up an average of 3.70 goals against. The Blackhawks have given up three or more goals in three of their last four games with the only outlier being Anaheim who scored twice.

Dustin Tokarski will get the start for the Sabres tonight as Craig Anderson started last night. Tokarki has a -3.6 GSAx on the season with a 3.07 GAA and a .907 SV%. Kevin Lankinen will start for Chicago tonight who has a -18.4 GSAx on the year with a 3.50 GAA and a .889 SV%.

Pick:

  • BUFFALO SABRES/ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS OVER 6.0 (-105) – POINTSBET

Starting with the goalie matchup, I like this game to be a high scoring affair. Lankinen ranks 2nd last in the NHL in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected. Tokarski also has a negative GSAx on the year. The Blackhawks are scoring above their season average and are also allowing more than their season average. As I mentioned before, the Sabres have been much better up front in their last 4 and rank 26th in terms of goals against on the year. Given the total being set at 6, I like us to have the opportunity for a possible push. Neither team has a shot at the playoffs so they should be playing more loosely with essentially nothing to lose.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

MLB Season Preview Part 1/7 – NL East

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.

NL EAST

Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

New York Mets +115/ 90.5

Atlanta Braves +115/ 90.5

Philadelphia Phillies +375/ 85.5

Miami Marlins +1200/ 76.5

Washington Nationals +3000/ 71.5

New York Mets – The Amazin’ Mets are all new and shiny. They’ve got a new GM and a new manager, If healthy the best 1-2 punch of starting pitchers in MLB, along with some nice additions to solidify the rest of the rotation. This is also a veteran lineup that is fairly solid top to bottom. But let’s start with the rotation, Scherzer and Degrom could team up for 40 wins if the cards fall right. Scherzer isn’t getting any younger though and Degrom’s body already has shown it can’t handle the stress getting put on it. The rest of the rotation is solid. Chris Bassitt acquired from Oakland is hugely underrated and should thrive in Citi Field. Carlos Carrasco should come back healthy this year, and Taijaun Walker is a serviceable number 5 starter. If they can eat up enough innings they should be able to get the ball to a much improved bullpen with Adam Ottavino and Miguel Castro setting things up for Edwin Diaz who is one of the top 5 stoppers in baseball. The lineup will feature table setter and speedster Starling Marte at the top, followed by Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor. There should be plenty of guys getting on for Pete Alonso to come move around. Alonso should also get some more lineup protection with Eduardo Escobar behind him. I think the Mets win the division this year, and if the staff stays mostly healthy they could run away with it. Prediction  91-71

Atlanta Braves – The defending 2021 World Series champs come into 2022 having swapped out star first basemen in the middle of their order and with some questions at the back end of the rotation. Matt Olson replaces the face of the franchise Freddie Freeman at first base. Olson actually outhit Freeman last year and has made adjustments to his swing that have greatly helped reduce his strikeout rate. I think the Braves made the right move here and got the better player long term for less money. They also will be getting their all world OF Ronald Acuna Jr. back sometime in May as he recovers from an ACL tear. Their rotation is anchored by Max Fried and veteran Charlie Morton, but after that the waters get murky. Huascar Ynoa will look to take a step forward, and Ian Anderson will hope to sustain his rookie success from a year ago. I don’t see either happening. The wild card in the staff will be Mike Soroka, who has suffered Achilles injuries the last two seasons. He has a 2.86 ERA in 37 career starts and if they can get him up and healthy it will increase their chances of repeating. Their bullpen is one of the best in the majors with Kenley Jansen coming over from the Dodgers and Will Smith holding down the back end of games. Tyler Matzuk, AJ Minter and Luke Jackson are all formidable arms to hold down the late innings of games where they have the lead. Prediction 90-72

Philadelphia Philles – The Fightin’ Phils look like they will have a say in how the east is won this year. They almost did in 2021, as they got swept out of contention by the Braves in the second to last series of the year. They have made improvements over 2021 especially on offense where they added Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to give them a big bopper on both sides of the dish to help protect Bryce Harper. The Phillies are gonna hit a ton of Home Runs this year which is good because it is not a lineup built to formulate big innings through small ball.  There is not much speed on this team, and at the expense of those Home Runs also comes some defensive liability all around the diamond. The pitching staff is led by Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler plus an intriguing number 3 starter in Ranger Suarez who has potential to turn into an ace. Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin will be at the back end of the rotation and both are solid if unspectacular options. Corey Knebel is the guy currently slated at the back end of the bullpen, but they also have Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Seranthony Dominguez that could close games. This bullpen is much improved vs 2021. At the end of the day this team could make some noise in the division, but I think they are still a step behind the Braves and Mets. Prediction 85-77

Miami Marlins – How about the fish? Well their rotation is going to win them some games this year. Trevor Rogers is an ace in the making. He had one of only 12 seasons ever in the modern era last year where someone had a 10+K/9 and a HR/9 under .45. Other names with seasons like that include, Nolan Ryan, Clayton Kershaw, Dwight Gooden, Roger Clemens, Jacob Degrom. The rest of the rotation features studs Sandy Alcantara and Pablo Lopez at the front, and Jesus Luzardo and Elisar Hernandez and the bottom. All are capable of great performances, and they are going to need them to carry the lineup for the Fish. They made some upgrades bringing in Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia, but they still lack consistency from top to bottom. Another guy to keep an eye on for a breakout campaign is Jazz Chisholm who has 30/30 potential. The bullpen is not good. They will struggle to closeout leads at the end of games. I think as the pitching staff continues to get better they will improve, but until some of the bats down on the farm are ready and they bring in some real talent on offense they won’t compete for a division title. Prediction 79-83

Washington Nationals – The Nats still feature one of the best players in all of baseball in Juan Soto. The dude can straight up rake. Not enough however to keep them from another 90 loss campaign. The only other pieces in the lineup with any sort of proven track record are Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz, and I guarantee you Cruz will be shipped out to a contender come July. Stephen Strasburg is still around in the rotation, but this is a broken down Strasburg, not the one that made all the noise with Bryce Harper when they were back to back #1 picks. The rest of the rotation is a hot mess and the bullpen is a dumpster fire. This team is going to be very bad. Prediction 68-94

My Free plays on the NL East are on the bottom two teams and are as follows:

Miami Marlins – Over 76.5 Wins 1 Unit

Washington Nationals Under 71.5 Wins 2 Units

 

March 28th NBA Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

A new week is upon us, and I’m rolling with 2 NBA plays for tonight to get us started! If you would like to be notified when I post my plays, join my text service via Telegram: https://t.me/fordhamsportsgambling

*NBA(1u): Nuggets -4(-110) @ Hornets–6 PM CT

There is a reason the Hornets are multi-possession ‘dogs even after winning outright against the Jazz and Nets in recent days. This team does not perform well on short rest(this is their 3rd game in 4 nights and the second game of a back to back), and more importantly, they have no way to stop Nuggets C Nikola Jokic. The Hornets are a run-and-gun type of team that is very reliant on the 3, but unfortunately for them, Denver ranks 7th in defending the 3 ball this season. We’ve seen Denver have success on the road against faster-paced teams who struggle defensively, and when you consider how seismic the mismatch is down low, I think that continues tonight. Charlotte is just not a team you can trust to carry over success game-to-game. I’ll lay the 4 with the road favorite here. 

*NBA(1u): Magic/Cavaliers UNDER 217(-110)–6 PM CT

Cleveland has cooled off in a major way after a very strong December/January. The Cavaliers are just 5-8 in the month of March and have lost each of their last 3 games heading into tonight. We saw them put up just 94 points on Saturday against the Bulls, a team who is notorious for no-show performances on the defensive end of the floor. The Magic might be one of the worst teams in the league, but that can be credited much more to their poor offense than to their defense which actually ranks 17th in defensive efficiency this season. Cleveland is the 2nd slowest-paced team in the league, so even if they find a rhythm tonight, it’s not going to lead to a huge dent on the scoreboard. While the Cavs’ defense has slipped since losing Jarrett Allen, they still rank 5th overall in defensive efficiency this season and have the benefit of facing off with arguably the worst offense in the league. If Cleveland can hold a Bulls team led by DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine to just 98 points, then they should have no trouble with the lowly Magic tonight. With this game being in Cleveland, I see the Cavs slowing the pace of this game down and getting this game over quickly. Under is the play. 

Premiums, 3.28

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up people! I’ll check in and provide more thoughts for these picks later today if there’s a lot of questions- on the final leg of a short vacay and again on borrowed time this morning. Here are the plays I like today:

NBA Picks:
  • Nuggets -3.5, 1.5 units
    • This is a really awkward spot for the Hornets and Denver lost the first match.
  • Raptors -4, 1.5 units
    • Tatum implied he’s sitting, Williams is out, and this feels like a mail-it-in-game for Boston.
  • Raptors/Celtics under 216, 1 unit
    • If we think Toronto wins, it’s because they inhibit the Boston offense in the paint and slow this down even more.
  • Heat TT over 115, 1 unit
    • Good chance for the Heat offense to get in a productive game.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

March 27th Card(1 CBB, 1 NBA)

By
Michael Fordham
-

Coming off a 2-0 night where I cashed the Houston/Villanova 1H UNDER as well as Duke 1H, I’m back at it today with 2 more plays. See each of those below, and let’s finish off the week strong!

*CBB(1u): Miami +5.5(-110) vs Kansas–1:20 PM CT

I have liked Miami all season because they get great play from their guards and can score in a variety of ways, but I was concerned how their defense would hold up in this Tournament. Well, all they have done is allow just 61 PPG through their 3 Tournament games and force over 16 turnovers/game. Kansas will be their toughest test yet, but the Jayhawks are beatable. Kansas’ leading scorer Ochai Agbaji has been extremely inconsistent this Tournament(shooting just 33% from the field). While Remy Martin has picked up the slack, I’m not sure how sustainable that is given Martin wasn’t relied upon as heavily leading up to the Tournament. Kansas’ defense is vulnerable as well. They were very unimpressive in their Round of 32 matchup against Creighton, who was down 2 key scorers and yet still managed to put up 72. Miami is definitely Kansas’s toughest test as well given their aforementioned guard play, current defensive form, as well as the fact that the Hurricanes take care of the basketball at one of the highest rates in the country. Miami has a clear path to win this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do just that. I’ll take the points. 

*NBA(1u): Timberwolves +6(-110) @ Celtics–5 PM CT

The Celtics have been rolling for quite awhile now, but they are coming off a 3 day layoff in their schedule, which is not optimal. Scheduling aside, I don’t want to cherry-pick numbers to try and talk down in this Celtics group; they have been great for awhile now. However, I don’t think this number does justice to how well Minnesota is playing either. While Minnesota recently endured a 2 game spell with losses to Dallas and Phoenix, they avenged that Dallas loss on Friday with a 21 point win. Overall, this team is 11-3 over their last 14 games and have an outright road win at Miami sprinkled in there. I expect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to play, but the fact they remain on the Injury Report tells me they aren’t in peak form. This is a “play on” Minnesota much more than it is a “play against” the Celtics, but I think the 6 point spread is a bit too high.

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