NBA Lines already came out for Friday – here’s some early sides I like:
Knicks -4.5, 2 units
Just gotta keep playing on the Knicks. They’re surging, playing MUCH better defense, and the Wizards don’t have the firepower to hang with them right now, especially if they’re nailing 3s. I’d take this up to -6.
Mavericks +4, 1.5 units
The Mavericks are low-key surging into the postseason. They’re 60% ATS as an underdog and 57% ATS overall. I’ll take Luka all day over Harden, but Embiid will likely be a problem for the Mavs’ shallow front court. Even so, the Mavericks figured it out in their first matchup and with their slow pace and efficiency from the perimeter and guard position, an area where the Sixers struggle to challenge, they should continue to find success.
Nets -13, 2 units
There may not be ANY number that’s too big here. The Nets are chasing their spot in the playoffs and they’re at home, with one of the best players in the world in Durant, off a loss, against the worst roster in the association. I’d take this up to -18. I’m not kidding.
Raptors 1H -4, 1.5 units
How can we not play this? It’s not available at most books yet, but grab it when it is. The Lakers have not covered in 11 straight first halves, and they had serious trouble against the Raptors 3 days ago. Toronto easily won the battle in the paint and I see no reason why they won’t again. They didn’t shoot very well in the first game and it didn’t matter– they beat the Lake show by double digits. Raptors -7.5 is probably the right side, too, but I like the 1H more. I’d take it up to -5.
Pacers/Rockets over 239, 1 unit
It’s gross but this is a fast-paced game with matchup advantages on both sides– mainly Christian Wood against a BAD Indiana front court and talented Pacers’ guards against a bad perimeter defense in Houston. Lock and load- the over should be golden. Only 1 unit because these are two hard teams to trust. I’d take it up to 242.
I’m not sure if I’ll have any more plays – the value is clear on the above. Will send an email tomorrow morning either way. Let’s fucking go, team!
THE MADNESS IS HERE!! And it started officially with the Notre Dame/Rutgers double OT game!! I was very fortunate to be on the ND side and we are now 16-6 (72%) in out last 22 plays!
I have breakdowns for every Thursday game from the East quadrant and a lean for each game below. Good luck with your picks and brackets!!
Norfolk St enters with a 5-1 ATS record at a neutral court and 4-2 ATS as a dog while Baylor is 6-3 ATS as an away favorite. Norfolk is one of the most experienced teams in the nation (33rd) and they score most of their points inside the arc which is the weakness of Baylor’s defense. Norfolk St also gets to the line a bunch, ranking 9th in the nation in FTA/FGA, so they will look to get the Bears into foul trouble. Saying that, Baylor has a clear rebounding advantage with their size and will be a problem on defense with their 16th best turnover percentage, as they will take advantage of quick points off steals. There is a way for Norfolk St to stay within this number, their defense. They rank 16th in eFG% and play excellent defense. Lean Norfolk St +21.5
North Carolina/Marquette
These are 2 very inconsistent teams. Marquette has been great in the beginning of the season and North Carolina improved later in the season but still has been inconsistent. Marquette comes in with a -4.7 point differential in their last 3 games while UNC owns a +6.7 differential. Marquette is 8-4 ATS vs ranked teams this season and UNC is 2-4 ATS. Marquette is also 11-5 ATS as a dog this season. There is a HUGE rebounding advantage for NC as they rank 13th in the nation and will take advantage of 2nd chance points. Marquette scores the 87th most amount of points from 3 and they will have an advantage there and will have the luxury of going up against the Tar Heels 255th ranking against the 3-point shot. Marquette is also VERY young, ranking 349th in experience but do have the advantage in depth and they will also have the advantage on defensive blocks and steals. My advice on this one….PASS!
St Marys/Indiana
Indiana comes in with a +2.3 point differential in their last 3 games, including their win against Wyoming in the play-in game. This will be a slow paced game with Indiana ranking 201st in tempo an St Mary’s ranking 344th. These are 2 of the best defenses in the nation with St Mary’s ranking 9th in adjusted efficiency and Indiana is 18th. The Hoosiers score most of their points inside the arc but they will be going against the strength of the St Mary’s defense. At the other end of the court, St Mary’s also scores most of their points inside, but guess what? That is where Indiana thrives on defense, ranking 9th against the 2-point shot. Neither team is very good at second chance points either, so points will be at a premium in this one. I lean Under 126.5
UCLA/Akron
Akron enters 9-2 ATS as a dog and 7-1 ATS with 4+ days off while UCLA is 6-5 ATS as a road favorite. The Bruins will have the edge in height, experience and depth. Akron comes in scoring a good majority of their points from beyond the arc and rank 74th in the nation by shooting 35.6% and may be able to hang with the Bruins as long as they can shoot a good percentage from deep. UCLA will have the edge at the free throw line but score most of their points inside the arc and that’s where the Zips defensive strength lies. There is a chance for Akron to keep this one tighter than the spread. lean Akron +14
Murray St/San Francisco
San Fran is a good team away from home, ranking 35th in the nation and are a very experienced team (78th in the country). SF shoots a lot of 3s and scores a good amount of their points from beyond the arc by Murray St defends the 3 even better (24th in the nation). This should be a fairly even matchup on the boards but Murray St should have the edge in turnovers (41st in TO%). If this comes down to the wire, there is no advantage from either team as they both shoot under 70% from the line. Lean Murray St -2
Kentucky/St Peters
St Peters comes in with a 10-4 ATS as a road team and are 3-0 ATS at a neutral court while Kentucky is 12-14 as a favorite. St Peters is also 8-3 ATS as a dog and 6-2 ATS with 4+ days off. St Peters is a good team away from home and ranks 7th in the nation in momentum. The Peacocks have a very deep bench as 40% of their minutes come from the bench which is 16th most in the country. Kentucky should have their way with the St Peters offense, however, they should struggle with the 34th best team in adjusted defensive efficiency and the 6th best in eFG%. Kentucky scores 61.1% of their points inside the arc which is where St Peters thrives on defense, ranking 11th in the nation against the 2-point shot. St Peters is also 13th in block% and 63rd in steal%. Lean St Peters +17.5
Happy Saint Patty’s day! Montana State did some great things this year but they are really stepping up in class vs Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are better in every facet of the game than Montana state minus the 3 point shot. This is where I think that Montana can hang just a little. The Bobcats rank 38th in three point percentage while Tech only ranks 64th in defending it. The Biggest problem that I have with the favorite is that Montana State is a much better away from home team than Texas Tech ranking 22nd to Tech’s 357th. Texas Tech hasn’t been blowing out many teams away form home and I think that Montana State can keep it formidable. I also like how Tech really slowed things down in the Big 12 tournament and I think this stays under
Montana State +15 – 1.5 stars
Under 131.5 – 1.5 stars
Notre Dame vs Alabama -4 O/U 152.5
The Luck of the Irish hit pretty hard when Notre Dame got that horrible charging call against Rutgers to get them to double overtime and eventually win this game. Their last shot hit right past midnight on St Patty’s day. Now as far as Alabama is concerned, they do have the easier matchup in my opinion, the problem is that Notre Dame has matchup advantages. The Irish rank 14th in adjusted 3 point shooting and Alabama only ranks 199th in stopping the 3. Alabama also takes a ton of 3 point shots ranking 12th in attempts but they only rank 305th in 3 point percentage. The Tide will have the advantage cleaning up their shots and rebounding the ball. Notre Dame really struggles against teams that are tall inside and that could be their detriment but I do like how they slowed Rutgers down some. I really can’t trust Alabama’s defense here and they should only be favored by 2.5.
Thursday card has 6 Tournament plays all from long term round 1 Power systems including the Round 1 Total of the year, a Platinum Supreme and Triple perfect side. We also have a Perfect NHL System and NBA.
The NCAAB Tournament Comp Play is on New Mexico St at 6:50 eastern. The Aggies could be that 12 seed to spring an upset here tonight as they have covered 11 of 13 vs .600 or better opposition, 4 of 4 as a dog and 4 of 5 off a win. The Huskies have failed to cover 4 of 5 off a loss and 0 of 12 vs wining teams. The game fits a Powerful system that plays on .740 or better 12 seeds that are off a win vs a 5 seed that comes in off a loss. Look for a close game with The Aggies getting at the very least the cover. On Thursday the Round 1 Tournament Total of the Year headlines along with a Triple Perfect Side and a late Platinum Supreme, there are 6 plays and an NHL Power system side and NBA. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now as we get started fast. For the NCAAB Comp play. Take the points with New Mexico St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Top of the mornin’ to ya laddies! May the wind be at your back, may the mighty seas guide you to your destination, and may we keep winning motherfucking bets like we did last night!
Epic 5-1, nearly +6 unit night Wednesday! And we got a little St. Patty’s day fortune with the Irish, too. Now, it’s time for a little more Madness. Let’s go!
NBA Picks:
Magic/Pistons under 219, 1 unit
Believe it or not, I think there’s value on this stinky stinky one-game slate. Trends are pointing towards the under for both teams, who each hit ATS unders in 70-80% of their last 7-8 contests. Detroit likes to play slow, both teams have among the worst shooting percentages in the NBA, and Orlando’s defense has stepped up and played better recently (please exclude that last 150 point explosion from the Nets in that analysis ha). This feels like a sleepy, slow, defensive game and a few of the better scorers are either OUT or questionable. Under for me.
March Madness Picks:
Michigan -1, 1.5 units
This is a bad matchup for Colorado State and they were lucky to draw the seed they did. Michigan has the pedigree and experience, and they don’t know they’re not as good as year’s past. I think the Wolverines make a statement early against inferior competition.
Providence ML (-140), 1.4 units
SD State depends on 3-point shooting to overwhelm teams and their potential is no joke, but Providence has really solid perimeter defenders and this will be a BIG TIME uptick in class for SD State. Not going to risk the line- I’ll take a ML play on the Friars.
Longwood TT under 57.5, 1 unit
The formidable Volunteer defense, probably the best unit entering the tournament right now, will rely heavily on their elite defense to ensure their place in the bracket stays afloat. The talent gap is extremely wide in this contest, and Longwood has one of the highest “luck ratings” in college basketball. I think they really struggle scoring here.
Richmond/Iowa over 150.5, 1 unit
I wish we got a better number here, but Richmond should be able to hold their own against one of the best offenses in the tournament. Unlike other higher seeds in the 1st round, Richmond has faced very solid defenses throughout the year and I don’t think they blink an eye on that end of the court. Iowa simply cannot be stopped, so I have to go light with an over play.
Lean, North Carolina -3.5
The Tar Heels have been too inconsistent to bet right now, but Marquette has been trending in the wrong direction for the past few weeks. Lean NC.
St. Mary’s -2.5, 1.5 units
This is a good opening matchup for the Gaels. They’re well coached, and they should out-execute the Hoosiers in the 2nd half. Indiana fought hard against Wyoming and I think that will affect them late against St. Mary’s.
Akron +13, 1 unit
This should be a slow, slow game and while Akron isn’t in the same class as UCLA, the opportunity and matchup only points us towards the dog. Take the Zips and the points for a decent price.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
So I am combining parts 3 and 4 into this post. I somehow forgot that opening day of the tournament is also St Patrick’s Day. I work in the beer industry and sell Guinness so I won’t be doing any write-ups tonight, you can probably figure out why.
March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the Midwest Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll put a post up every evening from now until Thursday saving the Friday games for last.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here in the Midwest and these games are in the Midwest region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the Midwest games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi– 5:40 PM Tuesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
8 San Diego State 9 vs Creighton – 6:27 PM Thursday in Fort Worth, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
6 LSU vs 11 Iowa State – 6:20 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Colgate – 8:50 PM Friday in Milwaukee, WI
7 USC vs 10 Miami (FL) – 2:10 PM Friday in Greenville, SC
2 Auburn vs 15 Jacksonville State – 11:40 AM Friday in Greenville, SC
6 LSU (-4) vs 11 Iowa StateO/U 127 – Iowa State started 12-0 including wins over Iowa and Memphis. Then they limped though the Big 12 finishing 8-12 in their last 20 games. They peaked early and have struggled to score against elite defensive units as evidenced by the 72-41 drubbing by Texas Tech in Big 12 Tourney. LSU is big and fast and elite on defense. They finish at the rim, and Iowa State lacks height inside. LSU lost a few SEC games they should have won, but I think they will hold Iowa State in check. I played LSU -3 for 2 Units, but like it at 4 still.
3 Wisconsin (-7.5) vs 14 Colgate O/U 139 – Now onto my Alma Mater and constant cause of anxiety the Wisconsin Badgers. They got a 3 seed on the basis of their tie for first in the Big Ten, but are not elite on either side of the ball. They’re good, but not great. They are one of the luckiest teams in the nation and until the final game of regular season had won 15 straight games decided by two possessions or less. If Johnny Davis struggles they could lose to anyone, but if he’s on they can also beat anyone. Colgate is a long range ace, 2nd in the country in 3Pt%. They were up big on Arkansas before crumbling to the Arkansas pressure in last years tournament. Wisconsin will bring no such pressure. I’m off this game except maybe a happiness hedge. Colgate has already dropped from +8.5 to 7 so I think it’s best to stay away at this point.
7 USC (-1.5) vs 10 Miami (FL) O/U 141- USC is big, long and solid around the rim. They dominated on defense in the punch-less PAC 12, except against the two good teams in conference Arizona and UCLA who they were 0-4 against. They are poor at shooting free throws. Miami is elite on offense and poor on defense. They have a win over Duke, but also weren’t great against the top of the ACC in the second half of conference play. I’ve got this right on the numbers here so this is a no play for me, but I think it’s possible Miami could outscore USC if this game turns into a high scoring affair.
2 Auburn (-15.5) vs 15 Jacksonville State O/U 138.5 – Jacksonville State got in the tourney on a technicality after losing in the ASUN semis. They are a team that does well from the perimeter and plays at a slower pace. They will have to slow this game down to keep it close. Auburn lost to Texas A&M in the SEC Tourney and will be rested and ready to go here. They will have a substantial size advantage and are battle tested coming through the SEC. A month ago this was one of my tourney favorites and I think in the Midwest they could certainly find their way into the Final Four. This game has been steamed up to 15.5 and if it keeps going up I may look at a first half Jacksonville State play, but this is likely a pass for me.
We have a massive show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks and Greg Peterson @GUnit_81 come on the show to give us their amazing knowledge in handicapping the NCAA tournament, and finding some value in these games! First, Kiev reminds everyone to get in our free bracket challenge to win $500! Next, Kyle comes on and the guys talk about some trends for NCAA tournament betting. Then, the guys get right into the Friday of the NCAA tournament with a pick or a lean on every single game! After that, Greg Hoops Peterson comes on and talks some bracketology as well as some huge college basketball games for both days with some FREE PLAYS and great information. Finally, Kiev gives out a UFC play for this weekend! Hope you enjoy the show and best of luck with your betting and your brackets! Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
GET IN OUR FREE TOURNAMENT BRACKET CHALLENGE TO WIN! $500 give away! Click Here
If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves! Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsBreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
*CBB(1u): South Dakota State/Providence OVER 148.5(-110)–11:40 AM CT
This game has garnered a lot of hype this week, with South Dakota State catching a lot of public love. While I don’t want to back them in a pick-em type spot against a team that wins close games, I have little doubt that South Dakota State is going to show up offensively. This team’s offensive numbers aren’t just good, they’re elite. 52.5 FG%, 44.9 3PT%, and 75.9 FT%… those numbers are unheard of, folks. Providence’s defensive metrics slipped considerably towards the end of the season, as they’re all the way down to 79th in defensive efficiency. The JackRabbits really like to push the pace, and even if the efficiency is down a little bit, they’re still going to score. As sure as I am that SDSU can stay in this game offensively, I’m equally as sure that they are totally outmatched on the defensive end of the floor. The Jack Rabbits rank just 220th in defensive efficiency and don’t have anywhere near the amount of needed physicality to stop the Friars. Providence doesn’t even have great overall shooting metrics, yet they still rank 31st in offensive efficiency. That tells me this team knows how to score in more ways than one, and that’s going to be even more true in a matchup where they have the major physicality edge. I know this total seems high for an Opening Round game, but it does not do justice to how these teams truly will match up. In South Dakota State’s 4 “biggest” non-conference games, the amount of points scored were as follows: 192, 177, 163, 156. Rather than trust the Jack Rabbits with the side, I am looking towards this Over to get things started for us.
*CBB(1u): Baylor -20.5(-110) vs Norfolk State–1 PM CT
Public sentiment is down on Baylor a little bit after they didn’t finish off the season the way you’d expect a defending champion to, but if anything, that’d lead to a greater sense of urgency to get the tournament started off in dominant fashion. In all honesty, I’m really not worried about this Baylor team now that we’re in March; they’ve had plenty of time to adjust to some key injuries, depth is overrated in this time of the year anyway, and the guys they have on the floor are still really damn good. There are no off-nights playing in the Big 12, and Baylor only fell victim to losses in some tough spots. This is anything but that. First of all, this game takes place in Fort Worth, which is just a short hike from Waco and a quasi-home game for the Bears. Second of all, Norfolk State very well might be the weakest team still left in the tournament after A&M Corpus Christi was eliminated on Tuesday. The Spartans have quite literally no edges on Baylor entering this matchup except for “experience”; even then, Norfolk State ranks just 247th in continuity, meaning these veteran imports really haven’t played that much basketball together. We saw the Spartans play only 1 Power 6 team in their non-conference schedule, which resulted in a 40 point-loss at Xavier(who didn’t make the tournament). Last year, Norfolk State lost by 40 to Gonzaga in this same 1/16 matchup. This is a lot of points in any matchup, but I really think Baylor can name their score here. Unlike some other 1 seeds who might be a little fat and happy, Baylor should have a sense of urgency to come out hot and dominate this game from start to finish.
*CBB(1u): North Carolina -3.5(-110) vs Marquette–3:30 PM CT
I’ve classified North Carolina as one of my tougher teams to handicap, while I’ve actually liked backing Marquette. From a blind eye and with no research involved, I might’ve wanted to be on the Golden Eagles in this one. However, after really digging into how these teams match up, I couldn’t feel differently. North Carolina is undeniably in better current form entering the tournament after winning 8 of their last 10 games. Marquette, on the other hand, went just 4-6 over their last 10 games after getting hot in January. All in all, it’s been a successful year 1 for Shaka Smart, but these last 10 games have shown that the Golden Eagles are still a work in progress. This is one of the 10 youngest teams in the country that is probably going to need at least another year to be ready to win in this tournament. While UNC Head Coach Hubert Davis is in his 1st year as HC, he was the head assistant under Roy Williams for 10 years and recruited every single player on this Tar Heels roster. Big difference if you ask me. The ultimate mismatch in this game is going to come on the boards. North Carolina ranks 2nd in defensive rebounding percentage, while Marquette grabs offensive rebounds at just the 341st best rate. On the defensive end, Marquette still only ranks 316th in rebounding percentage. Marquette will have to shoot extremely well to compete in this game, and when you really look at their splits, you realize that’s really not where they excel. Shaka has this team playing feisty defense, but UNC is extremely efficient from beyond the arc and from the foul line. I believe this is what we like to call a straight-up mismatch; I like UNC to take care of business here.
*CBB(1u): New Mexico State/UCONN 1H UNDER >60–5:50 PM CT
For clarification, as of this writing(late Wednesday night), 1st Half lines have not been released on my books. However, given the total is in the low 130’s, we’ll almost certainly get a 1H total north of 60, meaning this will be an official play for me.
In all honesty, I think New Mexico State is one of the more live ‘dogs here in this Thursday slate. The Aggies have the size and rebounding acumen to match up well with the Huskies down low, and they play a good brand of defense as well. UCONN simply doesn’t get it done for me offensively, as this team shoots just 43.6% from the floor. Combine that with their slow pace, and I think we get a relatively low output from them early in this game. With that said, UCONN sets up very well defensively to completely stimmy this NMSU offense. The Huskies block shots at the 2nd highest rate in the country, meaning the Aggies are likely going to need to rely on outside shooting more than usual in this one. That’s unfortunate given they shoot less than 33% from the outside. NMSU ranks just 223rd in pace themselves, meaning this should set up to be a good ‘ole rock fight. This should be one of the uglier games on tap for Thursday, but we’ll take advantage of that by playing this 1H Under at anything north of 60.
862 SE Louisiana vs South Alabama 1H UN 72 (-105)*
Strong system indicating a play to the first half under on these higher totaled games. I believe the books know this with the first half total set much lower than the full game. Looking at SELA when they played TXAMCC in their championship, I saw a team that was highly reliant on just a couple of players. South Alabama was one of the better teams in the Sun Belt, I expect them to isolate those players on defense and shut them down at home. Home team should dictate the pace here where SALA is middle of the pack in pace (170th). SALA prefers to get the ball inside and should be able to out athlete SELA there. I don’t expect them to give up a ton at home and they don’t have a tendency to foul (120th defensive free throw rate), so there shouldn’t be a lot of easy points. Market likes the over in this one, so it will be a small play, but I think this one may have moved too much.
