We have a huge show for you today! Erik Haslam from @Haslametrics comes on to break down the bracket games and give us his final 4! First, Kiev talks about the brackets and gives us three early FREE PLAYS for this week. Next, Erik comes on and we talk about the committee, and if they had gotten it right. Then, we discuss some teams that were left out. Next, we talk about some potential first round upsets and a dark horse to make the final 4. After that, Erik and Kiev go over which quadrant is the hardest and which one might be the easiest. Finally, Kiev and Erik give out their final 4 with the teams that they like to cut down the nets. Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
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March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the Midwest Bracket. 3 of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket. I’ll put a post up every evening from now until Thursday saving the Friday games for last.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in CDT cause that time change thing just happened here in the Midwest and these games are in the Midwest region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the Midwest games
16 Seed Play in GameTexas Southern/Texas A&M Corpus Christi– 5:40 PM Tuesday in Dayton, OH
Midwest Bracket
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU/TXAMCC – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
8 San Diego State 9 vs Creighton – 6:27 PM Thursday in Fort Worth, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
6 LSU vs 11 Iowa State – 6:20 PM Thursday in Milwaukee, WI
3 Wisconsin vs 14 Colgate – 8:50 PM Thursday in Milwaukee, WI
7 USC vs 10 Miami (FL) – 2:10 PM Thursday in Greenville, SC
2 Auburn vs 15 Jacksonville State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Greenville, SC
16 Seed Play in Game Texas Southern (-3.5) vs Texas A&M CC O/U 136.5 – Honestly I haven’t watched much SWAC or Southland conference games this year so this is all just statistics based. Both these teams play slightly on the faster side, but both teams are very poor in offensive efficiency and slightly better on the defensive end. No play for me here yet, but I lean Texas Southern as they have the best win of either team with a win over Florida
8 San Diego State (-2.5) vs 9 Creighton O/U 120 – Creighton had a nice little run in Big East Tourney before falling to Villanova 54-48 in a defensive dogfight. Their reward is another dogfight against the 2nd best defensive team in country according to KenPom. Creighton is no defensive slouch either. Creighton lost point guard Ryan Nembhard before the Big East tourney and it really showed against Nova. San Diego State has won 12 of 15, and those 3 losses came by a combined 3 points (That’s three 1 point losses folks!), twice to Boise State and once to Colorado State. They will also struggle to score here as their offense has been their main weakness. Matt Bradley a Cal transfer guides their offense and if he is hot they should win this game. The line gives some benefit to Creighton coming out of the Big East, and neither has a home court advantage. I like SDSU, but the numbers say no plays here for me yet as I have it at 3 and 119.
Check out the post tomorrow night for the next group of games
1 Kansas vs 16 TSU/TXAMCC – 8:57 PM Thursday in Fort Wort, TX
5 Iowa vs 12 Richmond – 2:10 PM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
4 Providence vs 13 South Dakota State – 11:40 AM Thursday in Buffalo, NY
Over is 7-1-1 in Senators last 9 vs. Central division.
Previous Matchups:
March 5, 2022
Ottawa (5) @ Arizona (8)
OTT: -120, ARI: +100, O/U: 5.5 (-125/+105)
Preview:
Arizona Coyotes
Are the Arizona Coyotes a good hockey team… short answer is no. However, they’re 4-1 in their last five games defeating the Avalanche, Senators, Red Wings, and Maple Leaf’s during that stretch. That one loss was at the hands of the Boston Bruins where they lost 3-2 in their last game. They’ll face a familiar foe in the Ottawa Senators tonight, a team that they beat 8-5 just nine days ago.
Over the course of the year, the Coyotes rank as one of the worst offensive teams averaging just 2.54 Goals For per game. However, in their last 10 they’re averaging 4.00 Goals For per game. They’re led up front by All-Star Clayton Keller who’s averaging two points per game in his last five games. In addition to Keller, Nick Schmaltz has been hot as of late. In their game against Ottawa last week, he set the Arizona Coyotes franchise record for most points in a game with 7 (2 Goals, 5 Assists). Arizona is still averaging below 30 Shots per game despite their uptick in scoring. The main reason for their increase in offensive production has been their Shooting %. On the year, they have a 9.8% Shooting Percentage but in their last 10 they have a 15% Shooting Percentage, which is absolutely wild. This number will inevitably regress, so we’ll see how much longer they can keep this up. Their Power Play ranks dead last in the NHL but, has been slightly better as of late. Despite the slight uptick in their man advantage conversion rate, the Coyotes have only scored three Power Play goals in their last 10 games.
Just like their offense, the Arizona Coyotes have been better on defense in their last 10 games. On the year, they rank 28th allowing an average of 3.56 Goals Against per game but in their last 10 they’ve only been allowing an average of 3.00. They rank 31st in Shots on Goal Allowed averaging 34.9 and have actually been worse recently allowing an average of 38.40. With the increased amount of scoring changes the Coyotes are allowing you may be wondering, why they’ve been better on defense and that’s because of Karel Vejmelka. Before, I talk about their goaltending, I just want to mention that their Penalty Kill ranks 31 out of 32. Ottawa’s Power Play has been solid recently and given that Arizona is one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL, it could pose a potential mismatch for them.
One name to monitor tonight is Jakob Chychrun who is questionable with a lower body injury. He’s most likely going to get dealt before the trade deadline to a team looking to bolster their defensive unit but, this injury complicates things. Hopefully this lower body injury isn’t anything serious but is definitely something to keep an eye out for.
Now onto Arizona’s goaltending, it looks as though Scott Wedgewood will get the start for them. Wedgewood has been the worse of the two goalies, allowing four or more goals in his past three games. In all of those games, he finished with a SV% below .900 and a negative Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). He did start against Ottawa last time out allowing 5 goals and finishing the game with a -1.1 GSAx. On the year he ranks 62nd with a -2.2 GSAx.
Ottawa Senators
Unlike Arizona, the Senators have struggled as of late going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are 2-1 in their last 3 defeating St Louis and Seattle but losing to Chicago in their last game 6-3. The Senators are in the middle of a homestand and will take on Arizona tonight before facing Columbus and Philadelphia. Just like the Coyotes, this team is out of playoff contention so it’s all about focusing on the future for them.
The Senators have regressed a bit offensively as of late averaging 2.50 Goals For in their last 10 when compared to their season average of 2.63. They’ve been on par averaging 30.0 Shots For as of late. They’ve had a slight decrease in Shooting % which accounts for their down tick in goals but it’s nothing major. Ottawa’s offense really hasn’t been better or worse recently. Their Power Play has been slightly better but like I said before, really nothing note worthy from this team in terms of offense. Drake Batherson remains out with an ankle injury and is expected to return later this month, thanks Aaron Dell. Even with Batherson missing 10 plus games, he’s still second on the team in points, which is concerning. Brady Tkachuk leads the team in points with 42 and was held without a point in their last matchup against the Coyotes.
Defensively, Ottawa has been worse in their last 10 with an average of 3.50 Goals Against. They’ve allowed around their season average of Shots Against per game but their issue has been losing their starting goaltender, Matt Murray. In terms of Special Teams, the Senators rank 13th on the Penalty Kill. However, they have allowed at least one goal against on the Power Play in six of their last 10.
Matt Murray remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury so Anton Forsberg or Filip Gustavsson will get the start. Forsberg started Ottawa’s last game vs Chicago where he allowed six goals against and finished with a .786 SV%, woof. Gustavsson, who was elevated from the AHL given Murray’s absence, could potentially get his first start since February 20th. In that game he was solid, only allowing two goals on 33 shots. On the year, Forsberg has a +5.5 GSAx while Gustavsson has a -4.4 GSAx.
Pick
ARIZONA COYOTES TEAM TOTAL OVER 2.5 (-118)
It looks as through Gustavsson will get the start who has a 3.66 Goals Against Average. The Coyotes offense has been much better as of late averaging 4.00 Goals For in their last 10 and face an Ottawa team giving up an average of 3.50 Goals Against in their last 10. The Coyotes were able to put up 8 goals against this team a little over a week ago and now they only need to score 3 to hit their team total over.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 15: Alex Caruso #6 of the Chicago Bulls looks on during the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on November 15, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
*NBA(1u): Bulls -3.5(-110) @ Kings–9 PM CT
The Bulls just recently endured a 5 game losing streak during a tough stretch of their schedule, but they have responded with 2 straight wins. In their last game, they beat a good Cavs team by 10 at home and allowed just 91 points in that game. Chicago has been terrific offensively this season, but to see the defense show signs of promise makes me want to be on them in this spot. Sacramento has the reputation of being explosive offensively, but that’s just not backed up by the numbers; overall, this team ranks just 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Kings are just 2-9 in their last 11, with those 2 wins coming against equally bad teams(Spurs, Thunder). You might ask why this line seems short; it’s because Bulls G Zach LaVine is questionable for tonight’s game. One of the biggest market overreactions we see is to injury news. I’m not saying it doesn’t matter, but the Bulls are playing well as a team and will continue to do so against a bottom feeder with or without LaVine. It also helps that Chicago has welcomed back Alex Caruso into the rotation here recently. One other drawback you could have towards this play is that the Bulls have road battles with the Jazz and Suns coming up on Wednesday and Friday of this week. I would worry more about that look ahead if they played one of those teams tomorrow, but with a day of rest in between each of those games, there is no logical reason for the Bulls to hold anything back tonight. Plus, this is a team that just recently took a sizable hit to their record. With playoff seeding implications only heating up at this point in the season, this is not a game the Bulls are going to overlook. Bulls -3.5 is the lone play for me tonight.
Added a few more! Love the slate today – let’s fucking GO crew!
NBA Picks:
Nuggets +3, 1.5 units
There’s a reason why this number is immediately moving down in favor of Denver. Now, it may move back up tomorrow so buyer beware, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. The 76ers played a TOUGH game Sunday, in OT, against Orlando, and barely pulled out a victory. They were down double-digits for most of that contest. Now here comes Jokic, the leading MVP candidate next to Embiid, and they’re off two bad losses in a row while vying for the top spot in the Northwest Division. Even though it’s in Philly, this is a great setup for Denver to get some redemption. They also lost against the 76ers earlier this year so it’s doubly redemptive. My money will be on Denver taking a victory in the City of Brotherly love – I’d give a little ML sprinkle, too.
T-Wolves/Spurs over 239, 1.5 units
Fast-pace, barely any defense, and two teams that score over 120 like most teams score 100. I can only look at the over here. If it opens at 245 or more, I can’t play that, but grab anything else for 1.5 units. Remember, the T-Wolves/Magic game not going over was complete BS.
Warriors -12, 2 units
Hammer time for the Warriors! The Warriors are starting to find another level of play and the Wizards just don’t have enough talent to hang with this version of Golden State. That’s especially true against a juggernaut offense like the Warriors can be, and now they have Draymond returning to clamp down on defense. The Warriors out-perform and out-pace the Wizards with ease in this one. I think they’re going to start looking A LOT like the version of the Warriors we saw earlier this year. Look out.
Bulls -4.5, 1 unit
Treading with caution since the Bulls have shown signs of shitting the bed recently, but with Caruso back into the rotation, the Bulls should immediately be a more formidable defense. They looked better already against CLE. With their ability on offense, if properly motivated, this shouldn’t be close against a bad Kings team.
Parlay: Bucks win and Bucks/Jazz over 235, to win 1 unit:
Perfect get-right spot for the Bucks. Even though they’re on the road, their loss to the Warriors was extremely humbling a few days ago. Great teams, championship teams, like Milwaukee typically respond and tonight they’ll get an extra boost in the front court by having Brook Lopez back. For the second leg of this parlay, it’s likely that the Bucks will bring an elevated fast pace to this contest after their embarrassing loss a few days ago. The Jazz have been routinely running “overs” and they typically score at home. Because of the pace and because this should be an offensive game against two non-rivals, I love the over. Perfect parlay opportunity.
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We have a great show for you today! Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche from The OddsBreakers comes on to discuss NCAA tournament games and the bracket! We first talk about some different bracket games and tournaments that we like to play during march madness. Next, we discuss which teams that should have not made the tournament. Who missed out? Then, we talk about some good seeding for some of the teams and some bad seeding for others. After that, Shawn and Kiev go over which quadrant is the hardest and which one might be the easiest. Finally, we discuss some home court advantages that we see happening in the tournament. Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
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Welp, shitty weekend, and I take full accountability. Have you ever felt displaced or just OFF and yet you still proceed as usual, thinking everything will just remain the same? That’s kind of how this whole weekend felt for me. Packing, moving, not well rested; just not the best version of myself. This is still gambling, and I know you all trust the process and sometimes we lose (no one’s hitting 100% out there), but next time a big event like this happens, I’ll make sure I proceed with more caution. Wasn’t easy being judicious after such a phenomenal week.
Alright. Tirade over. I’m settled in and it’s a new week! Here’s a few early plays for Monday. May or may not add more tomorrow.
NBA Picks:
Nuggets +3, 1.5 units
There’s a reason why this number is immediately moving down in favor of Denver. Now, it may move back up tomorrow so buyer beware, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. The 76ers played a TOUGH game Sunday, in OT, against Orlando, and barely pulled out a victory. They were down double-digits for most of that contest. Now here comes Jokic, the leading MVP candidate next to Embiid, and they’re off two bad losses in a row while vying for the top spot in the Northwest Division. Even though it’s in Philly, this is a great setup for Denver to get some redemption. They also lost against the 76ers earlier this year so it’s doubly redemptive. My money will be on Denver taking a victory in the City of Brotherly love – I’d give a little ML sprinkle, too.
T-Wolves/Spurs over (up to 243), 1.5 units
Fast-pace, barely any defense, and two teams that score over 120 like most teams score 100. I can only look at the over here. If it opens at 245 or more, I can’t play that, but grab anything else for 1.5 units. Remember, that the T-Wolves/Magic game not going over was complete BS.
Warriors -12, 2 units
Hammer time for the Warriors! The Warriors are starting to find another level of play and the Wizards just don’t have enough talent to hang with this version of Golden State. That’s especially true against a juggernaut offense like the Warriors can be, and now they have Draymond returning to clamp down on defense. The Warriors out-perform and out-pace the Wizards with ease in this one. I think they’re going to start looking A LOT like the version of the Warriors we saw earlier this year. Look out.
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Chris has been betting and handicapping sports for over a decade, honing long-term strategy from the sharpest minds in the industry. A military veteran and avid NY Giants fan, he has a Bachelor’s in Journalism and Philosophy from Alvernia University and Master’s in Public Administration from American University. When Chris isn’t consuming sports (which is rather nonstop), he enjoys spending time with his family, his friends, and his over-sized German Shepherd. He also loves beef jerky (way too much).
