NFL Week 11 Sunday Fun-Day Play – Sports Betting
Bengals vs Steelers -5.5 O/U 49
🏈 Game Context
- Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025, 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
- Broadcast: CBS
📊 Team Records & Stakes
- Steelers: 5-4, currently first in the AFC North despite losing 3 of their last 4 games.
- Bengals: 3-6, desperate for a win to stay in the playoff hunt. A victory would make them 3-0 in the division and just one game behind Pittsburgh.
🔥 Quarterback Matchup
- Joe Flacco (Bengals): At 40, making his 200th career start. He led Cincinnati to a 33-31 win over Pittsburgh in Week 7.
- Aaron Rodgers (Steelers): At 41, coming off his worst game of the season against the Chargers. He’s looking to bounce back and stabilize Pittsburgh’s offense.
📈 Key Stats
- Bengals Offense: Ranked 22nd overall, 13th in passing, but dead last in rushing.
- Bengals Defense: Ranked 32nd across the board — worst in the league.
- Steelers Offense: Ranked 29th overall, struggling in both run (30th) and pass (23rd).
- Steelers Defense: Stronger against the run (14th) but vulnerable against the pass (32nd).
🔑 What to Watch For
- Turnovers: Steelers have a +6 turnover differential, while the Bengals sit at -5.
- QB Duel: Flacco vs. Rodgers is a rare “Battle of the Ages” — both over 40, both still slinging.
- Division Impact: A Bengals win tightens the AFC North race dramatically; a Steelers win solidifies their lead.
Prediction:
- This should be a fun AFC North game with two teams that really do not have a chance to win the division.
- The Steelers are a bit fraudulent, and here is why.
- In a bad NFL year of many below average teams, Pittsburgh ranks 20th in offensive EPA and 22nd on defense. These numbers do not match their 5-4 record.
- The Bengals have been quite piss poor when it comes to defense, this team is dead last in defensive EPA and 19th on offense.
- The reason that I like the Bengals to cover here is that their offense has been flowing much better since Joe Flacco came aboard.
- Since week eight, this team ranks 4th in offensive EPA while the Steelers rank 31st. The recent play is very much the tell.
- The weather looks like it could get pretty windy in the steel city. Both teams may have to run the ball. The Bengals rank 3rd rush EPA to the Steelers who rank a modest 15th. The Bengals do give up more rushing yards, but stacking the box could be a game changer. A push here at best.
- I know that many people will look at this as a “revenge” spot for the Steelers from their heartbreaking loss earlier this season, but the Bengals are coming off the bye week. Joe Burrow is almost ready to come in and potentially save this team into a wildcard spot.
- I expect max effort from our friends in Cincinnati. Take the cats.
Bengals + 5.5 – 2 stars
NFL Week 11 Sharp Money Movement
As of Thursday Nov 12. The most prominent sharp sides and totals:
Sharp Money On:
- Titans +7.5 to +6 hosting the Texans – 39% tickets and 51% of the money.
- Bears +3 to +2.5 at the Vikings – 62% tickets and 79% of the money.
- Chiefs -3 to -3.5 at the Broncos – 58% tickets and 76% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Commanders vs Dolphins under 48.5 to 47.5 – 90% tickets and 94% of the money.
- Bears vs Vikings over 45.5 to 48.5 – 53% tickets and 77% of the money.
- Buccaneers vs Bills under 49.5 to 47.5 – 65% tickets and 75% of the money.
- Cowboys vs Raiders over 45.5 to 50 – 42% tickets and 70% of the money.
College Football Week 12 Free Plays – Penn State vs Michigan State – Colorado State vs New Mexico – Sports Betting
Penn State vs Michigan State +7.5 O/U 49.5
🏟️ Game Details
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing
- Broadcast: CBS
📊 Team Records & Odds
- Penn State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
- Michigan State: 3–6 overall, 0–6 Big Ten
- Spread: Penn State -7
- Over/Under: 49.5 points
🔑 Offensive Leaders
| Category | Penn State | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Ethan Grunkemeyer: 103/159, 1,100 yds, 8 TD, 3 INT | A. Chiles: 128/203, 1,392 yds, 10 TD, 3 INT |
| RB | Kaytron Allen: 138 carries, 736 yds, 10 TD | Makhi Frazier: 108 carries, 493 yds, 2 TD |
| WR | Trebor Pena: 32 rec, 331 yds, 1 TD | Nick Marsh: 46 rec, 554 yds, 5 TD |
🛡️ Defensive Leaders
- Penn State: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton – 3 sacks
- Michigan State: DE Michael Spencer – team leader in sacks
📈 Team Stats
- Penn State Offense: 335.7 yards per game (110th in FBS)
- Passing: 184.7 ypg (110th)
- Rushing: Balanced attack led by Allen & Singleton
- Penn State Defense: 325.8 yards allowed per game (33rd nationally)
- Michigan State Offense: Slightly stronger passing game with Chiles & Marsh
- Michigan State Defense: Struggling with injuries, multiple starters out
🏈 Game Context
- Rivalry: The matchup is for the Land Grant Trophy, a traditional rivalry prize between the two schools.
- Records: Both teams sit at 3–6 overall and 0–6 in Big Ten play, making this a battle to avoid finishing winless in conference.
- Recent Form:
- Penn State nearly upset No. 2 Indiana last week, losing 27–24 after surrendering a late touchdown.
- Michigan State fell in overtime to Minnesota, 23–20, extending its losing streak to six games.
🔑 Key Storylines
- Coaching Turmoil: Penn State fired longtime coach James Franklin a month ago. Interim coach Terry Smith is trying to salvage the season.
- Michigan State Woes: The Spartans are dealing with vacated wins from past seasons due to ineligible players, plus multiple injuries across the roster.
- Quarterback Watch: MSU redshirt freshman Alessio Milivojevic showed promise in his first start against Minnesota, and could be key against Penn State’s defense.
- Penn State’s Close Calls: Despite their record, the Nittany Lions have lost five Big Ten games by a combined 16 points, showing they’ve been competitive.
Prediction:
- Penn State literally went through a gauntlet of opponents after their Northwestern loss. Losing by one to Iowa, playing a strong first half against Ohio State before the crumble, and almost beating Indiana straight up.
- To be honest, I honestly do not see how this team could keep going more less laying over seven points on the road.
- Michigan State is coming off of the bye week recharged and ready to roll. As bad as this team has looked this year, they still only have a net negative .51 yards per play on a pretty rough schedule.
- Penn State has a +.21 net yards per play, but this team is struggling with a backup quarterback.
- Another thing that I like for Sparty is that the team benched struggling quarterback Aiden Childs for Alessio Milivojevic. This kid has played pretty well thus far, and should be able to lead this team going forward.
- Michigan State is in a good spot this week. I believe that coach Jonathan Smith will get his guys motivated to try and make a bowl game. I am just not sure what Penn State cares about this point with preseason playoff expectations. Take the dog.
Michigan State +7.5 – 2.5 stars
Colorado State vs New Mexico -14.5 O/U 53.5
- This is an under the radar Mountain West game that I feel has some value.
- The Lobos are a force to be reckoned with. With the San Diego State loss, this team has a shot to make the Mountain West championship game.
- Colorado State on the other hand is a hopeless team. They only have two wins with no chance of making a bowl game.
- This Rams team has a -1.35 yards per play. They are rank 95th in offensive EPA and 118th on defense.
- The Lobos are a powerful mountain west team with solid numbers. New Mexico ranks 41st in offensive EPA and 68th in defensive success rate. They have some nice wins against Utah State and UCLA. I think that the Lobos can clean up here pretty well coming off the bye week. I’ll lay the points.
New Mexico -14.5 – 2 stars
College Football Week 12 Free Picks by Andrew
My picks for the season are now .500 at 12-12 for the year, I am looking to get back in the black and help you do the same. My card is going to be little lighter as I do not see a lot of great opportunities not covered on the podcast and I am holding out for bowl season. Here a my picks for this coming weekend.
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5) @ Pittsburgh Panthers (12:00 PM/EST): Is Pittsburgh a much better team with Mason Heintschel at Quarterback? Sure they are but, they have also benefited from a pretty easy schedule beating up on the bottom feeders of the ACC. This is by far his toughest test to date and in case you did not hear Pitt’s coach earlier this week, this is not even the most important game left on their schedule in his eyes. For Notre Dame on the other hand this is the toughest game left on their schedule and an impressive win by margin will leave no doubt that they deserve a spot in the college football playoffs. Heintschel has been great but, he does put the ball in harms way and has not played a team that can take advantage of his mistakes. Notre Dame is the first team he has played who can capitalize on turnovers. I love the Pitt story and will look at them in the next few weeks but, I see the Irish looking to make a statement here.
- Illinois Fighting Illini (-15) vs Maryland Terrapins (3:30 PM/EST): I think you can put a fork in the Terrapins as they might be done. Tough spot for the Terps as they have to play the second of back to back road games and the Illini are coming off a bye. Unlike their game last week where they lost by 15 on the road the Illini actually have a half way competent defense so they should be able to hold down the Terps offense enough to cover the spread. The Illini still have something to play for and you never know a couple extra wins by margin could keep them in the mix for the playoff.
- North Carolina Tar Heels (+5.5) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4:30 PM/EST): Wake Forest is coming off a huge upset win and now host the Tar Heels. Last time Wake got a big win they got absolutely destroyed by Florida State. I don’t believe we will have a blow out here but, Wake Forest has problems on offense and I do not think they should be laying more than a field goal to any team in the ACC not named Boston College much less in-state rival. This game has the potential to be a very low scoring game as the over/under is only 38 so touchdowns will come at a premium. Wake probably wins by a filed goal but, I would not count out Chapel Bill from leading the Tar Heels to a bowl game in his first year in college and they sure need this one to get there.
College Football Friday Freebie – Minnesota vs Oregon – Sports Betting
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College Football Week 12 Sharp Money Movement
As of Wednesday Nov 12. The five most prominent sharp sides and totals:
Sharp Money On:
- Air Force +10.5 to +7 at UCONN – 71% tickets and 82% of the money.
- Oregon State +1.5 to -2.5 at Tulsa – 50% tickets and 81% of the money.
- Michigan State +8.5 to +7 hosting Penn State – 77% tickets and 83% of the money.
- USC -6 to -7 hosting Iowa – 67% tickets and 77% of the money.
- Oklahoma +7 to +5.5 at Alabama – 59% tickets and 77% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- West Virginia vs Arizona State over 46.5 to 48.5 – 81% tickets and 98% of the money.
- Penn State vs Michigan State over 47.5 to 49 – 64% tickets and 86% of the money.
- San Jose State vs Nevada over 48.5 to 52.5 – 65% tickets and 82% of the money.
- Texas vs Georgia under 51.5 to 48.5 – 39% tickets and 47% of the money.
- Kennesaw State vs Jacksonville State over 51.5 to 54.5 – 71% tickets and 92% of the money.
Podcast 758 – 94 – 25 – With Raphael Esparza – NFL Week 11 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports from @DocsSports and My Bookie is back to break down a big week in the NFL. First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS. Next, Raph comes on and the guys get right into the big matchups of the weekend. Then, the boys talk about the prop bets and why athletes are making massive mistakes. After that, they discuss some buy low/sell high teams to find some value in the near future. Next, Raphael and Kiev get into the full slate of NFL games with some free plays and Best Bets! Then, the boys talk some long shot bets that may hit for some beer money. Following that, Kiev gives out his Refuse to lose teaser that is a bloody 3-7. After that, we go over some sharp money movement for the week. Then, we talk a little UFC 322 with some more plays. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Podcast 757 – 93 – 25 – With David Delano – College Football Week 12 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! David Delano @GetSportsStrong is back to break down a big weekend of college football. First, Kiev gets into some college football ATS. Next, David comes on and the guys get right into future bets. Then, we talk a little @CFBPlayoff committee and how poor of a job that they are doing. Next, we get into some buy low/sell high in looking for some teams that might have some betting value in the near future. After that, David and Kiev get into their six pack of games with plenty of best bets! Then, the boys talk some random games as well as their beer bet bangers that could possibly feed the poor. Next, Kiev goes over some sharp money movement for the week. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
