On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael looks at 6 different CBB teams and identifies whether he’s “buying” or “selling” them as we approach the stretch run of the season!
NHL Preview & Picks – February 17th, 2022
Following up a small four game slate of games on Wednesday, we have 10 games going tonight in the NHL. There’s a few solid matchups tonight and also some not so exciting games. I’ll breakdown one of the better games between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs and offer a few other picks for tonight. Let’s get into it!
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 31-11-8, 1st Metropolitan (17-5-3 Away)
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 31-12-3, 3rd Atlantic (17-4-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +175 | +130 | +1.5 (-190) | o6.5 (-105) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +120 | -150 | -1.5 (+160) | u6.5 (-115) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games.
- Pittsburgh are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games.
- Toronto are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
Previous Matchups:
- October 23, 2021: Toronto 1 @ Pittsburgh 7
- PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 6.0 (+100/-120)
- November 20, 2021: Pittsburgh 2 @ Toronto 0
- PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
Preview:
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins limped into the All-Star break losing four games in a row but have returned from the break red hot winning four straight. They most recently defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in OT on Tuesday with Sidney Crosby scoring his 500th career goal in that matchup. They’ll take on the Maple Leafs tonight before returning home to take on the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh ranks 9th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.34 but, in their last 10 are only averaging 3.20. However, since returning from break they’re averaging 3.75 goals for per game. Despite the slight down tick in goals in their last 10, they’ve been averaging more shots for in their last 10 (34.70) compared to their season average of 34.60. Their Power Play ranks 11th converting at a rate of 22.1% but have been much better as of late. In their last 10 games, Pittsburgh Power Play is converting at a rate of 30.43%.
If you’re looking to target player props for tonight I would start with Pittsburgh’s leading scorer, Jake Guentzel. He’s recorded at least a point in his last 10 games, totaling 5 goals and 9 assists. Crosby has also been on a hot streak as of late recording at least a point in his last 7 games totaling 3 goals and 9 assists. Other players for Pittsburgh who you can look to target for player props are Kris Letang and Bryan Rust.
Defensively, the Penguins are tied for third in allowing the least goals against per game averaging 2.54. In their last 10, they’ve been slightly better averaging 2.50. During their four game winning streak, they’ve been much better with an average of 2.00 goals against per game. They rank 9th in terms of shots on goal against averaging 30.2 per game but, have been averaging two shots fewer in their last 10. The Penguins Penalty Kill ranks 2nd in the NHL with a rate of 87.7% and have only allowed one goal on the man advantage in their last four (10 attempts).
All-Star Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start to the Penguins tonight. He has a +15.6 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year in his 39 games played. In Jarry’s last five starts he’s allowed 2-2-3-4-4 goals against. He’s started both games against Toronto and has only allowed one goal against in those matchups.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs return from a three game road trip where they lost twice (Calgary, Vancouver) and won once. Their most recent game was that win, where they defeated Seattle 6-2. They return home tonight after a day off to take on a surging Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that’s beaten them in both of their previous matchups. Toronto currently sits in third place in the Atlantic division but will need to step it up if they look to keep pace with Florida and Tampa Bay.
Offensively, Toronto ranks 4th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.59. In their last 10, the offense has come alive averaging 4.30 goals for per game. They’ve been averaging more shots on goal as of late which has provided them with some much needed additional scoring chances as they don’t have the best shooting %. Obviously ranking 10th in Shooting % isn’t awful, but this team needs to continually put up goals if they want to have a shot in games. Toronto’s Power Play ranks 1st in the NHL and will face a great PK tonight, which should make for an exciting matchup.
In terms of player props for Toronto, again, start with their leading scorer Austin Matthews. He’s on a nine game point streak tallying 8 goals and 10 assists during that stretch. William Nylander and John Tavares are both on four game point streaks as well. However, a guy I like is Mitch Marner. He struggled during the beginning portion of the season but, has really turned it on as of late so look out for him tonight.
In terms of defense, the Maple Leafs rank 6th in goals allowed with an average of 2.70. In their last 10 games, they’ve been much worse averaging 3.20 goals against. Oddly enough, they’ve been averaging fewer shots against in those games, as compared to their season average. Their Penalty Kill ranks 6th with a success rate of 83.8%. However, in their last 10, that percentage has dropped to 69.57%. Both of these teams are extremely disciplined so I don’t expect to see many special teams chances. That being said, in their two pervious matchups there’s been a total of 13 Power Plays combined but, only one of those was converted upon. So definitely stay away from Power Play points props in this game.
Jack Campbell who was also an All-Star, is expected to get the start in net for the Maple Leafs. He started the season great but, has regressed a bit. Even with that regression, he still has a +8.8 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year. He also started in both those losses to the Penguins early in the year where he allowed 5 and 2 goals against. In the first matchup he was actually pulled but, faired much better in the second.
Pick:
- TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS OVER 6.0 (-125) – PointsBet
- I’m going to take this line now, as all of the other books have moved this line to 6.5. This is mainly based on getting some CLV for this game and allow us a chance to push if we need it. Looking at this game, it’s extremely tough to cap as Pittsburgh has been surging lately but, on the other hand you rarely see a team lose three straight matchups to an opponent. This will be last time these teams meet this year so I’m very tempted to take Toronto, instead I’m going to opt for some CLV and take the total now.
Other Plays on the Night:
- WASHINGTON CAPITALS/ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 1P OVER 1.5 (-135) – DK
- In Last 10, WSH 1.00 GF/ 0.90 GA and PHI 0.90 GF/ 1.40 GA in the 1P. Martin Jones expected to get his first start since January 25. He hasn’t been great at all this season allowing 4-4-3-3 in his last four starts.
- NEW YORK RANGERS/ DETROIT RED WINGS 1P OVER 1.5 (-140) – DK
- In Last 10, NYR 1.00 GF/ 1.20 GA and DET 1.00 GF/ 1.00 GA in the 1P. DET struggles in the 1P on the road while NYR are solid at home in the 1P. Nedeljkovic has struggled as of late so I think the NYR can get two themselves early here. I would also look at NYR 1P -0.5 (+135) if you’re interested.
- ST. LOUIS BLUES 1P -0.5 (+115) – DK
- Montreal is awful when it comes to starting hot. They’re 0-3 in terms of 1P money lines in their last 3. They start slow, in their last 10 they’re averaging 0.30 GF and 2.00 GA. In STL last 10, they’re averaging 1.40 GF and 1.40 GA. While the 1P Over 1.5 (-150) can also be a play here, I like STL to grab an early lead. MTL is still getting accustomed to Martin St. Louis’ playing style while STL is looking to make a post season push. Sam Montembeault is also expected to get the start who hasn’t been great this season for MTL with Husso expected to get the start for STL.
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
NCAAM Total Play
701 Loyola-Chicago at Valparaiso OV 130.5*
Seeing this total pushed up to 131.5 in some books and I agree as the Ramblers are a little higher paced than years past under their old coach. The concern here is can Valpo score, and the total here perhaps a little trappy, set much lower than their previous matchup in Chicago which was 138. However, Valpo ranked second in the MVC at 15-8 O/U overall, the number 1 over team in conference games at 10-3 O/U, much of that is likely due to their 245th rating in defensive efficiency. Loyola-Chicago at 8-5 O/U in conference play, 14-9 O/U on the season, 31st in offensive efficiency, this team can score. Both average right around this total but last matchup flew over…I like the over for a small play tonight, even at the 131.5.
Check out my Patreon for more daily plays!
NHL Preview & Picks – February 16th, 2022
We have a small slate of games tonight in the NHL but, they feature some incredible matchups. The Minnesota Wild take on the Winnipeg Jets in a Central Division clash. Florida travels to Carolina to take on the Hurricanes, Anaheim takes on Tyler Toffoli and the surging Flames and then our marquee game of the night. The Colorado Avalanche against the Vegas Golden Knights with Jack Eichel making his debut for the squad. It should be a great night of hockey so let’s get into it and find some winners.
Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: TNT
- Colorado Avalanche: 34-9-4, 1st Central (13-6-2 Away)
- Vegas Golden Knights: 28-17-3, 2nd Pacific (14-10-2 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Colorado Avalanche | -115 | -140 | -1.5 (+190) | o6.5 (-125) |
| Vegas Golden Knights | -105 | +120 | +1.5 (-235) | u6.5 (+105) |
Trends:
- Under is 5-0 in Avalanche last 5 overall.
- Avalanche are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Golden Knights last 4 home games.
Preview:
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are coming off a 4-1 loss against the Dallas Stars last night where Jake Oettinger had one of his best performances of the season finishing with a +3.7 GSAx. Colorado had 4.7 xG’s compared to Dallas’ 3.98. This was a tough spot for them as they had just beaten Dallas two nights prior 4-0. Even with that loss Colorado is 8-1-1 in their last 10 and remain one of the hottest teams in the NHL. The Avalanche are 4-0-1 on no days rest and 2-0 after a loss, so something to note.
On the year Colorado is 2nd in term of Goals For per game averaging 4.00. However, in their last 10 they haven’t been as good only averaging 3.30. They only average 0.10 Goals For lower on the road so that’s not a major concern in this matchup. In addition to goals, the Avalanche have been generating less shots on goal in their last 10 averaging 30.60 which is roughly 5 shots less per game than their season average. Colorado’s Power Play ranks 10th converting at a rate of 23.8%. Nathan MacKinnon returned from his concussion a few games ago and has tallied a point in each of his games back.
Defensively, Colorado has been much better in their last 10 averaging 1.90 Goals Against per game compared to their season average of 2.85. They’re giving up an average of 30.6 Shots on Goal Against which ranks 11th. Surprisingly, in their last 10 that number hasn’t really changed at all, it’s mainly due to their goaltending. Colorado’s Penalty Kill continues to struggle ranking 22nd. That being said, they have been much better as of late with the only outlier coming in their most recent game against the Stars.
With Pavel Francouz starting last night, Darcy Kuemper will get the nod in net tonight for the Av’s. He’s been their main starter all season and has a +12.9 GSAx on the year. In his last five starts he’s allowed 0-2-2-1-3 goals against.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are coming off a massive layoff with their last game taking place on February 9th. They lost 6-0 to the Flames in that matchup and will look to rebound here tonight. They faced the Avalanche earlier this season defeating them 3-1.
Offensively, the Vegas Golden Knights are averaging 3.29 Goals For Per game which ranks 10th. However in their last 10 games, that number has dropped significantly and are only averaging 2.60 Goals For per game. They rank 8th in terms of Shots on Goal but have been below that number in recent games. Their Power Play ranks 19th but have only scored one goal on the man advantage in their last 7 games (17 attempts). As previously mentioned Jack Eichel is poised to make his debut for the team and is expected to be on a line with Max Pacioretty and Evgenii Dadonov. With Jack Eichel returning to the ice, the Golden Knights had to place Mark Stone on long term IR to fit under the salary cap requirements.
Vegas ranks 19th in Goals Against per game allowing an average of 2.96. In their last 10 games, they’ve been around the same number so it’s not really note worthy. They’ve done a great job of limiting opponents shots against and will need to do it again tonight. Their Penalty Kill ranks 17th in the NHL and will be in for a test against the Av’s. The Golden Knights will be without Zach Whitecloud and Alec Martinez who remain on IR.
Laurent Brossoit is expected to be the starter for the Golden Knights tonight with Robin Lehner out. Brossoit has been good this year with a +4.2 GSAx. His last start was against Calgary on February 8th where he recorded a shutout.
Pick:
- COLORADO AVALANCHE ml (-132) – FANDUEL
- I’m going to stay away from the total in this matchup based off the offensive inconsistency both teams are having as of late. The Avalanche have shown that they can rebound quickly and rarely lose two games in a row. They face Vegas’ backup goalie in Brossoit, who’s not bad by the way, and a depleted defensive unit. Kuemper will be back in net tonight and I think the Av’s rally here to set the tone for a team they’ll likely face in the playoffs.
Other Plays on the Night:
- CALGARY FLAMES/ ANAHEIM DUCKS OVER 5.5 (-114) – FANDUEL
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
February 16th CBB Premium Play
*CBB(1u): Baylor +2(-110) @ Texas Tech–8 PM CT
In my opinion, Texas Tech is at their peak as far as value goes at this point in the season. This Red Raiders team wasn’t projected to be as good as they have been, and you certainly have to tip your cap to Mark Adams for the job he has done in Year 1. That being said, I think this team is going to have their fair share of struggles as they close out their conference schedule. The Red Raiders were blown out at Oklahoma last week and trailed to a mediocre TCU at Halftime on Saturday before kicking things into gear in the 2nd Half. While Tech plays elite defense, they leave a lot to be desired on the offensive end of the floor(59th in offensive efficiency). Baylor is still a bit short-handed, but this Baylor team still comes in at #3 in my power ratings. They are fresh off a 17-point home win against Texas and have a much easier time creating points than Tech does. What is overlooked about this Baylor team is that they defend really well, ranking #12 in defensive efficiency. Over their past two road games, Baylor has been uncompetitive against Alabama and Baylor. That said, this type of environment is starting to become familiar to them, and I think a team with as much pedigree as them finds a way to pull through tonight. I understand why Tech is favored, but I think this is a great time to sell high on the Red Raiders and back a top 5 team in Baylor.
Premiums, 2.16
Day late but not a dollar short – let’s hit this Wednesday. I think there’s PLENTY of value on today’s card. Let’s go!
NBA Picks:
- Hawks/Magic over 229 *
- Fast-paced and tired defenses, the Magic shouldn’t grant too much resistance against a potent Hawks’ offense that’s feeling themselves after last night.
- Pistons +13 *
- I’m not going to bet against the Celtics but this is a huge line against a Detroit team that isn’t good but can be feisty. After Boston’s big win last night, this is a big time letdown spot.
- Blazers/Grizzlies over 227.5 **
- Little resistance from the Blazers defense, Ja should be back, and who can stop this prolific Memphis offense? Right now, maybe no one. Love the over.
- Rockets +15.5 *
- I know it’s ugly, but Phoenix is off a back to back and this is their last game before the break. How much do they care? Will they rest players? Probably. All Rockets for me.
- Warriors -5.5 **
- What do you do when a great team disappoints? You look to play ON that team at the next opportunity. This is a GREAT spot for the Warriors to get right and play a complete game at home.
CBB Picks: I’ll be using the All Star break to reassess my college basketball power ratings and make better plays. We have done really well, but don’t want to get ahead of ourselves.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Premiums Out Later Than Usual
Hi All! This is a weird time in the NBA, 2 days before the All-Star break, and many lines have yet to crystallize. I’m going to wait a little longer than usual to send out picks today, just for your awareness. Thanks!
Chris
The Genesis Invitational – Preview & Picks
We’re going back to back, Scottie Scheffler defeat’s Patrick Cantlay in extra holes to capture his first ever PGA Tour event win! What a performance from him on Sunday, starting off hot then fading a bit only to make a late push and get himself in the playoffs. In addition to cashing on the outright winner, we also hit Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+170) to go up +6.89 Units last week. In the last two weeks we’re up a combined 16.64 Units, which may not seem like a lot when hitting two outrights but my unit scale is slightly different than others. This is only my second year of covering golf so I’m continually learning as I go but any feedback is always appreciated, positive or negative.
I mean does The Peoples Open ever disappoint!? The amount of viral content that came out of the Waste Management Open last week was just amazing. From Sam Ryders Hole in 1 on the 16th, to Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen taking off their shirts, it was just an incredibly hilarious week. While that may not be the “brand” of golf everyone wants to see every week, and understandably so, for once a year, the Waste Management Phoenix Open is must watch TV.
We head back to California for The Genesis Invitational this week where we have a star studded field. This will be a much different feel for golf fans this week. Last week was a frat party and this week will be much more of a black tie affair. Regardless of which you prefer, it’s always an incredible tournament that’s extremely challenging so we should be in for a treat. Let’s get into it, and dare I say? Try to find our third winner in a row.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: February 17th, 2022- February 20th, 2022
- Location: Pacific Palisades, California, United States
- Course: Riviera Country Club
- Course Type: Parkland
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,322 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Poa Annua
- Fairways: Kikuyu
- Rough: Kikuyu 2″
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet (Fast)
- Purse: $12,000,000 / Winner $2.160 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 550
- Bunkers: 58
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 0 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 71.21 (+0.21)
- 2020: 71.26 (+0.26)
- 2019: 71.20 (+0.20)
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: George Thomas/ William Bell (1926)
- Renovations: Crenshaw/Coore (1992), Tom Fazio (2012)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, February 17th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, February 18th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, February 19th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, February 20th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM ET
Weather:
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 13 mp/h S, 81% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Showers 56 F, 16 mp/h WSW, 81% Humidity, 60% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 53 F, 11 mp/h N, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny 58 F, 14 mp/h ENE, 60% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Genesis Invitational will end the West Coast Swing as we head to Florida next week for The Honda Classic.
The tournament made it’s debut in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open. It stayed as the LA Open until 1987, when Nissan took over the sponsorship for the event. In 1995, Nissan removed the “Los Angeles” name and changed it to the Nissan Open. However, from 2008 to 2016 it was played as the Northern Trust Open, until Genesis took over as the main sponsor in 2017. In 2017, it was changed to the Genesis Open but, in 2020 it became the Genesis Invitational. This change from Open to Invitation made it a more exclusive field with a bigger purse and a longer exemption for winning.
Riviera Country Club first hosted this event back in 1929 and has since held it a total of 58 times (non-consecutively). Since 1999, the tournament has been exclusively played here. The course will also host the Olympics in 2028 as Los Angeles is the host city.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Riviera Country Club is definitely one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. It’s a Par 71 that plays roughly 7,322 yards. In terms of course length it’s about average ranking 24 out of 54. Despite it’s location on the west coast, the elevation changes aren’t all that significant. However, what makes it so difficult is the narrow fairways and firm greens. While the fairways are significantly tougher to hit than the Tour average, the rough isn’t all that penalizing. Riviera and Torrey Pines are the only two courses on Tour that feature Kikuyu fairways and rough which is something to watch out for. Given the fast Poa Annua greens, the GIR % is roughly 16% lower here than the Tour Average over the last 5 years. The Poa Annua greens can be extremely challenging for some players as they run fast and can be unpredictable.
The course features three Par 5’s all of which vary in length and difficulty. The first hole is a short par five, that’s relatively easy depending on the tee shot. While the seventeenth is a tough uphill par 5 but does play downwind allowing players to gain some yardage.
The four Par 3’s are not that long as three of the four play under 200 yards. The real difficulty of these holes is that they are well protected by bunkers. Hole six actually has a bunker in the middle of the green that can come into play depending on the pin location. The par 3 fourteenth is considered one of the easiest holes on the course and features a wide open green. However, if you’re short here you’re most likely going to end up in a bunker as they surround the green in the front.
In terms of Strokes Gained, the past six winners of the Genesis Invitational have all ranked highly in Tee to Green and Approach. As I previously mentioned, it’s an extremely difficult course as seen by all of the scoring averages from the past three years.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500
- Greens in Regulation %
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
If Jon Rahm enters a tournament and isn’t the favorite, is it even a golf tournament? He’s currently listed at +950 (FanDuel) and is coming off a 10th place finish in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. While Rahm is currently ranked #1 in the OWGR, he has yet to capture a win during the 2021-22 season. His best finish was back in the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he finished 2nd. He’s been in great form as of late with his recent finishes going T10-T3-T14-2. Rahm will look for this first win of the season and his first win at the Genesis this week.
Following Rahm is Patrick Cantlay who’s currently listed at +1200 on FanDuel. He lost in the Playoff last week to Scottie Scheffler in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Cantlay has recorded a Top 20 finish at the Genesis his last four entries but has failed to finish higher than 4th which was back in 2018.
Next up is Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas who are both listed at +1600 on FanDuel. JT has missed the cut his last two starts at the Genesis but is in decent form finishing 8-20-5-5 in his last four starts. Dustin Johnson is also in great form finishing 25-8 in his last two starts. He’s had much more success in this tournament than JT finishing 8-10-9-16 in his last four starts and winning the Genesis in 2017.
After the three favorites we have Collin Morikawa at +2000 on DraftKings, Cameron Smith +2200 on DraftKings, and Rory McIlroy at +2200 as well on DraftKings. Rory’s been playing some great golf as of late but hasn’t been playing on the PGA Tour last competing in the Hero World Challenge back in December of 2021. Cam Smith has also been playing a lot of Euro Golf as of late and has been playing well over there. Last year he finished 4th at the Genesis so he’s certainly someone to keep an eye out on. Collin Morikawa hasn’t been in the best of form as of late but if his putter catches fire he always has a great shot to win. He’s played in the Genesis twice, finishing 26th in 2020 and 43rd in 2021.
Other “horses for courses” this week include; Hideki Matsuyama +2500 on Caesars (4th in ’15, 9th in ’19, 5th in ’20), Bubba Watson +4500 on DraftKings (won in ’14,’16’, & ’18), Max Homa +5000 on DraftKings (5th in ’20 & won in ’21), Adam Scott (2nd in ’16, 7th in ’19, and won in ’20) and Tony Finau +5000 on DraftKings (2nd in ’18 & 2nd in ’20).
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Max Homa (-12)
- Price: 60-1
- 2020*: Adam Scott (-11)
- Price: 33-1
- 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
- Price: 150-1
- 2018**: Bubba Watson (-12)
- Price: 50-1
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
- Price: 9-1
* – Adam Scott also won in 2005
* – Bubba Watson also won in 2016 and 2014
Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: Even
- 2020: +1
- 2019: Even
- 2018: +2
- 2017: Even
Picks (Outright):
- Dustin Johnson (+1600) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
DJ struggled last year but has seemed to turn things around this season. He finished 25th in the Farmers Insurance Open and 8th in the 2022 Saudi International. I mean to put it plain and simple, DJ loves this course and has played well here nearly every year. He won this event back in 2017 and finished runner up in 2014 and 2015. Starting in 2011 these have been his results at the Genesis MC-4-MC-2-2-4-1-16-9-10-8. He ranks first in the field gaining 2.47 Total Strokes at Riviera. Based on his revitalized form and his course history, I think he repeats here.
- Cameron Smith (+2200) – DraftKings
- Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Cam Smith also just played in the Saudi International and finished 4th. In his last PGA Tour event he missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii but prior to that he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Last year he finished 4th at the Genesis topping his previous best finish which was 6th back in 2017. Cam’s in great form as of late and given his success at this course last season, I think he has a shot to win it this year. He’s gaining strokes in every category at this event besides off the tee which isn’t a crucial stat. Smith is great around the green and if his putter can get hot, he should be a contender.
- Will Zalatoris (+3200) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.00 Units
Willy Z has been in amazing form this past two weeks finishing T6 at the American Express and 2nd at the Famers Insurance Open. He hasn’t played in the last two events which is a slight concern as most of the previous winners have but I couldn’t keep him off the card this week. Last year he finished 15th at the Genesis. He’s gaining 1.23 Strokes Putting at this event which ranks 2nd. While his play ATG here is a slight concern, he’s been much better this year and ranks 59th in SG: ATG on the Tour. He also ranks top 10 in terms of SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: TTG, and SG: Total.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4000) – PointsBet(LATE WITHDRAW)Risk 0.20 to win 8.0 Units
Possibly my favorite play of the week is Fitzpatrick to win the Genesis. He finished T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T10 at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He made his debut at this event in 2020 finishing 30th then followed that up by finishing 5th last year. Fitzpatrick is 38th in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: APP, 6th in SG: TTG, and 1st in SG: Total on the PGA Tour this year. He’s also gaining strokes in every category at the Genesis and looks to be in great position to win this week.
- Talor Gooch (+5500) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Talor Gooch captured his first win on the PGA Tour at the end of 2021 in the RSM Classic. Prior to the RSM Classic he was in incredible form and post win has since faded ever so slightly. Last week out at the WM Phoenix Open he finished T26. He’s played in the Genesis Invitational three times in his career finishing 20th in 2018, 10th in 2020, and 12th in 2021. Gooch is gaining strokes in every category at this event and ranks in the top in several including approach, tee to green, and ball striking. His putting is always a concern so that will be the make or break for him this week.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.47 Units (UPDATE: 1.27 Units)
Picks (Top 20):
- Adam Scott (+175) – Pointsbet
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Adam Scott won this event back in 2020 and also has three Top finishes to his name at the Genesis. He struggled a bit in this tournament last year finishing 38th but enters this year in much better form. He had success on the DP Tour this season gathering a 9th and 10th place finish. Last week he made his season debut on the Tour only to finish 38th at the WM Phoenix Open. He ranks 4th overall in the field in terms of strokes gained at the Genesis. Given the combination of the kikuyu fairways/ rough and Poa Annua greens he seems to do well here.
- Thomas Pieters (+270) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.35 Units
Thomas Pieters is going to be a popular play this week no doubt based on his current form. He won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship over on the DP Tour last month and then finished T12 at the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic as well. This will be his first time playing at the Genesis since 2018 where he finished 68th. However, in 2017 he was the runner up to Dustin Johnson. He’s gaining strokes in every category at this event besides around the green. He’s a great iron player this week which I think will propel him into the top 20 given the difficulty of these approach shots.
- Alex Noren (+290) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.45 Units
Alex Noren enters this event off a 6th place finish at the WM Phoenix Open last week. While he didn’t start the 2021-22 season off strong missing the cut at the RSM Classic and the AmEx, he’s been better as of late. Noren has played in this event three times with his best finish coming last year (12th). He’s 2 for 3 in terms of finishing in the Top 20 at the Genesis with the other time coming back in 2018 (16th). Looking at his SG stats at this event, he’s losing strokes around the green and off the tee which is a slight concern. That being said, he is gaining strokes in approach, tee to green and in putting. He ranks 19th in the field in terms of SG Putting at this event and based on his current form, I think he sneaks into the Top 20 again here.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Patrick Rodgers (+165) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.65 Units
Rodger’s comes into this event in sub-par form missing the cut in his last two events. With that being said, he’s been a Top 40 machine at the Genesis. Since 2017, these have been his finishing positions; 22-26-15-30-12. In all SG categories he’s not losing any strokes at this event. He ranks 18th in the field in terms of SG Putting at the Genesis which is a major category as these Poa Annua greens can frustrate a lot of players.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on The Genesis Invitational : 4.47 Units (UPDATE 4.27 UNITS)
SG Data at the Genesis: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Laying the Points with FarleyBets: NBA Pod – Feb 15, 2022
Hello fine people of the gambling world! Check out our weekly NBA pod below, where I go over current NBA news, the lines I like today, and I give out some FREE premium picks!
We’re hitting at 57% in NBA and we’re up 28 units in just the past 2 weeks!
College Basketball 2/15/22 Free play & Sign Up Link for a FREE SportsWageringU NCAAB Class!
Want to learn how to handicap like the pros? Please sign up for a FREE CLASS at www.SportsWageringU.com taught by Kyle Hunter and Kiev O’Neil. We will also be having a special guest. https://sportswageringu.com/products/ncaab-experts-package and if you learn something and want to go deeper, you could always take the full courses for each sport! We hope to see you there!
Memphis -3 +100 – 2 stars – Forget everything that you thought about this basketball team from December 15th – February 1st. Memphis was very very injured this year and struggled mightily because of it. We must not forget that this team was considered a top 20 team in the beginning of the season with wins against Saint Louis, Virginia Tech and Alabama. They just beat Houston so is that a let down spot? NOT WHEN YOU ARE ON THE REVENGE TOUR. This team beat Cincinnati while injured. They will be fine here on the road.
