In addition to this free play, I also have a CBB play reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 58% clip and have netted my members +45.8u since Sept. 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member; thanks as always for your support!
*NBA(1u): Heat -6 @ Wizards–6:10 PM CT
The Heat enter tonight’s matchup off of two straight convincing road wins; they beat the Spurs by 17 and followed that up with an impressive 18 point win in Charlotte. Much of this success can be attributed to Jimmy Butler, but Kyle Lowry’s return as a true PG has been crucial towards Miami’s recent success. Tonight, they’ll face a Wizards team that is still without star G Bradley Beal in addition to a very underrated frontcourt piece in Daniel Gafford. Washington is just 2-8 over their last 10 games and have no team chemistry with Beal out of the lineup. The Wizards have had a hard time generating much offense without Beal, ranking just 27th in offensive efficiency over their past 3 games. That bodes horribly facing a Heat team that is a top 5 defense in the league and ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. As the Heat start to get their main pieces back in the mix, this offense will only improve. With no look-ahead spot in play for Miami, I expect them to continue their current streak and win this game comfortably.
The NHL returns from All-Star break with just two games scheduled. Given the small slate of games, I’ll breakdown the best matchup of the two which is the Carolina Hurricanes against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Lets get into it…
Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +110 | +110 | +1.5 (-215) | o6.5 (+100) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -133 | -130 | -1.5 (+175) | u6.0 (-120) |
Trends:
Preview:
The Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs have faced off once before earlier this season. The Maple Leafs visited Carolina on October 25th where the Hurricanes won 4-1. Frederick Anderson got revenge against his former team stopping 24 of 25 shot attempts. In that matchup Carolina went off as a slight favorite (-115), and the Total was set at 6.0 (-120/+100).
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes return from the All-Star break tonight and look to build on their four game winning streak. They’ll begin a four game road trip where they’ll face Toronto tonight. Following this game they travel to Ottawa tomorrow to face off against the Senators before taking on Boston and Minnesota.
During the Hurricanes winning streak, their offense hasn’t been great averaging 2.75 Goals For. On the season they’re averaging 3.48 Goals For with an xGoals % of 54.61%. Keep in mind, anything above 50.00% is what you’re hoping for. Carolina generates an average of 32.9 Shots on Goal per game which ranks 12th. This team generates a ton of scoring chances as reflected by their Expected Goals For of 102.67. In terms of Power Play %, they convert at a 25.0% ranking 8th.
They currently have the best Goals Allowed in the NHL only allowing an average of 2.33 per game. In their last four games, this average has gone down to an average of 1.75. They do a great job of limiting opponents shots, ranking 1st in Shots on Goals Allowed. Despite their ability to limit shots, they have given up the 3rd most High Danger Shots against. Carolina has the 3rd best Goals Against Above Expected with a -14.32 somewhat in part due to the play of their goaltenders.
Frederick Anderson, who’s fresh off an All-Star appearance will get the start in net tonight. He has the 2nd best Goals Saved Above Expected with a +22.4 only behind Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers. He played well last time against his former team in their previous matchup and based on his current form, that trend should continue here.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Just like the Carolina Hurricanes, the Toronto Maple Leafs look to stay hot as they return from the break. They’ve rattled off five wins in a row with the majority of those games taking place on the road. Toronto will host the Hurricanes tonight before starting a three game road trip on Thursday.
On the year, Toronto averages 3.60 Goals For per game but during their last five games are averaging 5.4 Goals For per game. Their offense has been red hot as of late in part due to Austin Matthews performance. He has 4 Goals and 6 Assists in his last four games which includes a hat-trick against the Devils back on January 31. The Maple Leafs have an xGoals% of 55.14%, which is slightly better than Carolina’s. Just like their xGoals %, they generated more Expected Goals For with 106.97. Their Power Play ranks 1st in the NHL converting at a rate of 30.50%.
Defensively, Toronto has the 6th best Goals Against average allowing 2.64 per game. Over the course of their last 5 games, they’re averaging 2.60 which is only slightly better. This just shows that they’ve relied on their offense to win some games as of late which is unlike Carolina who’s used their defensive ability to win games. They’re giving up an average of 30.8 Shots Against per game but are great at limiting High Danger Shots. The Maple Leafs Penalty Kill has been solid on the season ranking 3rd (84.3%).
Jack Campbell, who made is first All-Star appearance and won the Save Streak competition this past weekend, will get the start in net. He has a +11.9 Goals Saved Above Expected in his 32 games played.
Pick:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
*CBB(1u): Virginia +11.5(-110) @ Duke–6 PM CT
Duke is coming off a really impressive win against arch-rival North Carolina, but coming back home just 2 days later is not the easiest of spots. I’ve been the first to say that Virginia is a step below where this program is used to being, but the Cavaliers are in great current form having just beat Miami by 13. While UVA runs at the slowest pace in College Basketball, their offense has moved up 20 spots in my offensive efficiency ratings here over the past few weeks. Duke is susceptible to “let down” games at home; they lost outright to Miami as 14.5 point favorites earlier this season and barely squeaked past Clemson laying this same number in a game they deserved to lose. With this being a very low-possession, slow-paced game, any spread in the double-digits is simply too high. Tony Bennett is still a really good basketball coach who has built up a historically winning program, and I like his surging UVA team to be competitive in this one.
Hello good people and happy new week! Our NBA plays have been white hot lately – we’re up 36 units since early January and we’re 12-4, for +14 units the last 6 days! If you’re interested in my premium picks (which are delivered directly to your inbox every day), join now by clicking this link! This heater isn’t ordinary and it’s bound to flame out, at least somewhat, here soon. Hop on the train! Onto today’s free pick!
Raptors -2 (-110), 1 unit: If you watch me on the BetUS NBA show at all, you know how much I like this Raptors team. So is it possible that there’s some inherent bias in this pick? Sure. But it also doesn’t mean I’m wrong about the Raptors. Toronto has ascended, as I thought they might, as soon as they got fully healthy. They now sit comfortably in the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference, they’ve won 5 in a row, and they’ve only lost 6 games since the start of January. Let’s look at some of the reasons why the Raptors have found so much success:
The Raptors are also the kind of team that’s given Charlotte problems lately. Heading into this contest, the Hornets lost 4 in a row to these teams: Clippers, Celtics, Cavs, and Heat. What do all these teams have in common? They’re all slow-paced, defense-predicated units. Once one of the most potent offenses in the NBA, Charlotte was held to 96 ppg during that stretch. Tonight they face a very similarly built group.
The Raptors play slow, they’re great on defense (especially in the paint), and they don’t commit turnovers. They’re in a flow-state right now, and it’s probably the reason why this line has moved so much the past 12 hours. It opened with Charlotte as a home favorite, and while it’s moving back down a tad right now, the Raptors are currently 2 point favorites. Toronto dominated the Hornets in their first matchup and I think this game will go the same way. The Raptors are healthy, they’re off 3 days rest (which they greatly needed), and they have advantages all over the court. Charlotte will need to shoot exceptionally well to win this game. I’m on the Raptors winning and covering a small line.
Happy new week, people! Yesterday sucked, which figures since it’s the first day I got a few new premium customers (welcome, studs!), but we’re still 12-4 for +14 units the past 6 days. Not too shabby.
[555] Bucks 1Q -1.5* at Clippers
Bucks have been a tough team to back lately as it has been hard to gauge their interest in the regular season. However, looking at their L5 first quarters on the road, they are tied for tops in the league at 4-1 1Q ATS. Tonight, they will be facing a surprisingly hot Clippers team who have also been hot in the first quarter at home their L5 at 4-1 1Q ATS.
Tonight will be the debut of this new look Clippers squad that are adding the recently acquired Powell and Covington from the Blazers. We just saw a Blazers squad cool down with their new pieces last night against the Bucks. I like the opportunity here to take the Bucks coming in early to take advantage of a new roster trying to figure things out. Money came in on the Clippers for the full game taking it from Bucks -5 to -3.5, so I have to assume the market believes LAC will adjust and the new pieces are an upgrade. That will keep this to a first quarter backing of the Bucks in this one who seem to be interested in first quarters at least.
In addition to this free play, I also have a CBB play reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 58.3% clip and have netted my members +46.9u since Sept. 2021. Click here to become a premium member, and thanks as always for your support!
*NBA(1u): Pelicans -4.5(-110) @ Rockets–6:10 PM CT
New Orleans comes into this game off of 2 straight road wins against the Pistons and Nuggets. While the Pels can go into lulls on the offensive end of the floor, this team ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. In contrast, the Rockets rank last in defensive efficiency this season and just yielded 131 points to the Spurs. Virtually any team with a pulse can put up points on this Rockets team, so with New Orleans feeling good entering this matchup, I expect them to look sharp tonight. This is also a revenge game for New Orleans after they lost in Houston in early December. I think the Under is worth a look as well, although it’s hard for me to get involved in Rockets Unders given how poor they are defensively. The better way to play this game is to lay the points with a surging New Orleans team and play against a sloppy Rockets bunch.
*CBB(1u): Houston/Cincinnati UNDER 132.5(-110)–5 PM CT
Houston has kind of flown under the radar playing in the down American Conference this season, but this matchup should have their full attention. Cincinnati(15-6) enters this game having won 4 of their last 5 and features the 27th rated defense according to KenPom. Houston is pretty efficient offensively, but they haven’t faced a defense this good since they played Oklahoma State back on December 18th. Given that the Cougars also run at the 310th fastest pace, I expect there to be some struggles from this Cougars offense in a tough road game. With that said, Houston has a top 15 defense themselves and shouldn’t be overly challenged by a Cincy offense that ranks just 145th in offensive efficiency and runs at a very average pace. This is going to be a low scoring game where the defenses should take over; anything above 130 presents a good opportunity to play this Under.
Sunday Headliner play is the 2022 NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. NCAAB Comp play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Monmouth at 2:00 eastern. Monmouth has won the last 3 in the series. They have covered in all 5 of their road favored wins and are a solid 7-1 ats vs teams over .500 as well as covers in 10 of 12 on the road and 10 of 13 playing off a win. They have a solid defensive edge over a Quinnipiac team that has failed to cover 12 of 17 vs winning teams an 5 of 7 on Sundays. Look for Monmouth to cover here. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
