Tuesday was just one of those nights – would have bet the same exact way if I did it again. On another note, today’s slate makes me wanna throw up. It’s the reason why this email took me so long. I considered not giving out any plays – Wednesday is filled with weird lines, injuries, and back-to-backs. Be extra cautious with your unit allocation. Seriously.
NBA Picks:
Clippers/Magic under 210.5 *
Another gross pic with 2 gross teams but at least LAC plays solid defense. I’ll go with another under in an uninspiring game.
Nets win * (EVEN)
Brooklyn responds after a bad look against LAL.
Mavericks -4.5 **
Tough spot for Dallas but it’s a tough spot for Portland, too. I trust Doncic and company to respond after a bad loss.
NFL Conference Picks:
Bengals +7 **
How many times does Burrow have to prove that he’s elite? In case you missed my Tweet, if there’s a rematch between two teams in the conference championship round, the team that won in the regular season has gone 9-2 since 2014. The Bengals beat KC in Week 17 – and I think they could do it again. I’ll be sprinkling on the ML, too – Burrow is special.
Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 **
Do I really need an explanation here?
49ers +3.5 *
Cautious because the Rams NEED TO beat SF one of these days, and I think they do, but how can this not be a FG game between two divisional rivals?
In addition to these 2 free plays, I also have 4 premium plays for tonight. While I will look to get my free play success back on track tonight, premium plays have been rock solid. Overall, those have hit at a 58.3% clip and netted my members +43.45u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Northwestern/Michigan OVER 138.5(-110)–5:30 PM CT
After a poor start to the season, Michigan has really turned a corner over the past week. They blew out Maryland at home before blowing out Indiana at Assembly Hall. The Wolverines hung 80 on a really good Indiana defense in that game, so coming back home and facing a Northwestern defense that is allowing 77.6 PPG in conference play shouldn’t be much of a challenge. With that said, Northwestern has been more competitive in the BigTen than their record would show. The Wildcats are led by a top 50 offense that is averaging 76.5 PPG this season. As good as Michigan has looked offensively, they haven’t been too challenged lately facing Maryland and Indiana’s offense; Northwestern is a step up on that end of the floor. Anything below 140 presents a good opportunity to play this Over.
*CBB(1u): St. Louis 1H -9.5(-105) vs George Washington–7 PM CT
George Washington is an atrocious basketball team, coming into tonight’s game ranked 266th overall in KenPom. To make matters worse, this is their third straight road game. I usually like to look against teams playing their second straight road game, so when it’s a team’s 3rd it seems nearly automatic for me. I’ve been involved in Saint Louis twice over the past week and think this team is bound to make a late season run in the Atlantic 10. The Billikens picked up a 31 point win over UMASS on Sunday and are starting to round into form on both ends of the floor. Early in this game, I know I’m going to be getting a full throttle effort from Saint Louis, so I’ll play on them to take a double digit lead into Halftime.
Ole Miss picked up a surprising blowout win against Florida on Monday, but I’m not expecting them to follow it up with a good performance tonight. The Rebels are a total hit-or-miss team; for example, they played Auburn very close a few weeks ago only to lose to Missouri by 25 the next game out. Arkansas is a team that finds itself squarely on the bubble, but the Razorbacks have responded well to that. After starting conference play 0-3, Arkansas has rattled off 4 straight wins, including a road win @ LSU. This line insinuates Ole Miss will put up back-to-back good efforts, which is something I will never buy in to.
*CBB(1u): SMU/South Florida UNDER 134(-110)–6 PM CT
South Florida is about as clear of an “Under” style team as you’ll find in this sport. The Bulls come in at a horrid 323rd in offensive efficiency and pair that with one of the slowest tempos in the country. However, South Florida is able to stay competitive because they sport the 63rd ranked defense and limit opponent’s possessions. SMU beat South Florida 77-63 earlier in the season, but the Mustangs also shot 51% from the floor in that game; I wouldn’t count on that happening tonight. While SMU’s offense is pretty good, they don’t push the floor enough to make me think they’ll counteract the snail’s pace tempo that USF likes to go at. I like this Under and think South Florida will dictate how this game is played.
*CBB(1u): Miami/Virginia Tech OVER 135.5–6 PM CT
Virginia Tech has the ability to be a really good offense because they shoot nearly 39% from 3-point range, but the Hokies limit themselves by going at such a slow tempo. However, coming off of 2 straight losses and currently sitting at 10-9, I wonder if Mike Young will start to take the training wheels off and start letting his boys run. Miami certainly likes to get at it on the offensive end of the floor and are very efficient in doing so(#21 in offensive efficiency). Miami’s defense, however, ranks just 152nd in defensive efficiency and shouldn’t present much of a threat to this Virginia Tech attack. I like this play even if Virginia Tech doesn’t push the pace, but I have a sneaky feeling this one becomes a track meet.
*CBB(1u): Oklahoma +2(-110) @ West Virginia–7 PM CT
Oklahoma might be 12-7 and 2-5 in conference play, but this is a team I’m looking to buy low on. The Sooners have endured an absolutely brutal schedule, playing Baylor twice, Kansas, and Texas in their past 5 games. With Auburn on the horizon on Saturday, this feels like a must-win game for Porter Mozier’s bunch. However, I think is a much easier machup for Oklahoma than you might think. Unlike OU, West Virginia has been uncompetitive against the upper echelon in the Big 12 and have only beat Kansas State(before they got hot) and Oklahoma State in conference play. The Mountaineers barely crack the Top 100 in offensive efficiency, and most of the conference has seemed to figure out their usually-solid defense. KenPom actually has Oklahoma rated 13 spots higher than this West Virginia team, and I’d tend to agree. I like OU to pick up a massive road conference win tonight, but I’ll take the 2 points as insurance.
As with most Wednesday’s in the NHL we have a smaller slate than normal. That being said, we do have some great matchups tonight.
I breakdown the marquee matchup between the Boston Bruins and Colorado Avalanche and offer some more picks for the night.
Boston Bruins @ Colorado Avalanche
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Boston Bruins: 24-13-2, 4th Atlantic (10-5-1 Away)
Colorado Avalanche: 29-8-3, 1st Central (18-2-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Boston Bruins
+140
+155
+1.5 (-145)
o6.0 (-120)
Colorado Avalanche
-175
-180
-1.5 (+125)
u6.0 (+100)
Trends:
Boston are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 5 games.
Colorado are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games.
Preview:
Boston Bruins
The Bruins start a three game road trip tonight when they take on the red hot Colorado Avalanche. Boston is coming off a 5-3 loss to Anaheim on Monday where Tukka Rask struggled. Since the start of January the Bruins have been much better with a 7-3 record in their last 10. If Boston wants to continue to climb the Atlantic division standings they’ll need to stay hot as it looks like it will be a battle between them and Toronto for 3rd place.
Boston ranks 12th in terms of Goals For Per Game with 3.10. Their last three games have been on par with that number scoring 3-3-4. The Bruins have the highest xGoals % in the NHL and generate a ton of chances. This definitely influences their Goals For Above Expected which is a -4.99. As I previously stated, in the beginning of the year the Bruins weren’t great offensively but, as of late have gotten it going. They lacked depth scoring and now with their new line combinations, score at a much higher rate. Boston also has a great Power Play ranking 7th converting at a rate of 25.2%.
In terms of player props for Boston, I would look to target David Pastrnak. He’s currently on a six game point streak recording 7 goals and 3 assists during that stretch.
Defensively, Boston is averaging 2.72 Goals Against Per Game overall and 2.38 Goals Against on the road. The Bruins have a great defensive core which makes them a very dangerous team if their offense is able to contribute as they have recently. They give up the 4th fewest Shots on Goal Against and the 2nd fewest High Danger Shots Against. Despite all these great stats, the Bruins have the 4th worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +10.09. This number isn’t all on the defense as goaltending has been a major area of concern for them.
Matt Grzelcyk is currently day to day with an undisclosed injury so we’re unsure if he’ll be able to go tonight. If he is unable to, it will be a significant loss for the Bruins defensive core.
It looks as though Linus Ullmark will get the start in net for the Bruins. He has a -1.9 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his 20 games played this season. In his last three starts, he has allowed 3-2-3 goals against. Two of those three games were against pretty solid offenses, Carolina and Washington, but he’ll certainly have his work cut out for him tonight as he faces Colorado.
Colorado Avalanche
The hottest team in the NHL will look to extend their seven game win streak tonight against a worthy opponent. While the 7 game win streak is impressive, what’s even more outstanding is that since the start of January, Colorado has only lost one game which was an overtime loss to Nashville. During January, the Avalanche are 12-1, outscoring their opponents 52-27.
In terms of offense Colorado averages 4.10 Goals For Per Game and has an even better average at home of 4.38. Despite Colorado’s great goals for average they have actually been trending under that number only scoring 2-3-4-2-4 in their last five games. The defenses they faced weren’t nearly as good as Boston’s is so it should be interesting to see how they fair against them tonight. The Avalanche rank 10th in Power Play % with a rate of 24.5% but, have a conversion rate of 66.7% in their last three games. Colorado has the 2nd best Goals For Above Expected with a +17.98, only behind Minnesota.
If you’re looking for player props to target, lets start with Mikko Rantanen. In his last seven games he has 6 goals and 9 assists. Nathan MacKinnon has also been good recently with 3 goals and 5 assists in his last six games. Cale Makar, despite being a defenseman, is also a guy to target. He’s an assist machine tallying 9 in his last 10 games.
Defensively, Colorado is allowing an average of 2.95 Goals Against Per Game. At home, they are even better only allowing an average of 2.52. The Avalanche have a +2.06 Goals Against Above Expected which is middle of the league. In Colorado’s last four games, they have only allowed three goals combined which has honestly made the difference as their offense has “struggled” a bit. One are of concern for them tonight should be their Penalty Kill which ranks 27th. Boston’s Power Play has been great as of late and could be the difference maker if Colorado gets into penalty trouble. The Av’s are also one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL so definitely something to keep an eye on.
Pavel Francouz is expected to get the start in net for Colorado tonight. Francouz has a +3.4 GSAx on the season in his seven games played. He’s recorded a shut out in his last two starts and looks to be in great form.
Pick:
COLORADO AVALANCHE/ BOSTON BRUINS OVER 6.0 (-120)
I can see this total moving to 6.5 closer to game time so I want to lock it in at 6.0. The Bruins offense has really gotten going lately and I think that combined with Colorado’s pace of play this game should go over. While Colorado does like to push the pace and control the puck in the offensive zone, it can allow for sloppy turn overs which the Bruins should be able to capitalize on.
Other Picks For Today:
CALGARY FLAMES/ COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS 1P OVER 1.5 (-140)
On the road the Flames are averaging 1.30 Goals For and 0.57 Goals Against in the first period. At home Columbus is averaging 1.00 Goals For and 0.95 Goals Against in the first period. More specifically, in Calgary’s last 10 games they’re averaging 1.20 Goals For and 1.00 Goals Against in the 1P. In Columbus’ last 10, they’re averaging 1.10 Goals For and 1.40 Goals Against in the 1P. Calgary has scored at least 2 goals in the first period in their last three games. The 1P Over has hit in Columbus’ last three of four games.
Most of the player props are not out yet so be sure to follow me on Twitter for any late adds to the card.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Apologies for the late article to everyone but, here it is. We stay in California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The tournament actually starts on Wednesday (tomorrow) instead of Thursday to avoid scheduling conflicts with the NFL.
The Farmers Insurance Open will take place at Torrey Pines and features a multicourse set up just like last week. The field for this week is extremely loaded with some of the worlds top golfers competing against each other.
I breakdown the tournament format, field, and my picks below so lets get into it.
General Tournament Information:
Dates: January 26th, 2022- January 29th, 2022
Location: La Jolla, California, United States
Course: Torrey Pines (North & South Courses)
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Thursday/ Friday: North Course & South Course
Saturday & Sunday: South Course
Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties
Purse: $8,400,000 / Winner $1.512 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Torrey Pines South Course (3 Rounds)
Course Architect: William Bell (1957)
Course Redesign: Rees Jones (2019)
Comparable Courses: Muirfield Village, Riviera, Augusta National
For the first time ever the Farmers Insurance Open will take place Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.
The Farmers Insurance Open originated as the San Diego Open back in 1952. That name would last until 1958 when it was changed to the Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open. In 1992 Buick took over the sponsorship of the tournament and the name was changed to the Buick Invitational until 2009. In 2010 the name was switched to the Farmers Insurance Open and has remained that since then.
During the first few years of the event, the tournament bounced around different courses. However, in 1968 the tournament moved to Torrey Pines where it is currently played.
Course Guides/ Scorecard:
For the second week in a row we have an event that utilizes multiple courses. On Wednesday and Thursday all players will complete one round on the North and South course. Any one who has made the cut after that will then play the final two rounds on the South course.
Lets start with the North course since only one round will be played there this week. It’s by far the easier course for the weekend playing roughly 500 yards shorter in terms of distance. There’s also no water hazards on the course and has almost half as many bunkers as the South Course. The North Course also features pure bentgrass greens which is different from the South course that has Poa Annua greens. The North course provides some more opportunities for birdies which players will need to capitalize on in order to compete this week.
The South Course at Torrey Pines is the longest course on the PGA Tour. Due to its length and complex green designs, it plays as one of the toughest courses. The redesign in 2019 only added to the difficulty of the course with additional bunkers being added. As previously mentioned, the South course features Poa Annua greens which are notoriously difficult to score on.
The Field/ Odds:
The Farmers Insurance Open has one of the strongest fields outside any major tournament. Six of the Top 10 Players in the World, are competing in this event.
Jon Rahm headlines the event and is the current favorite sitting at 7-1 (+700). Rahm won this event back in 2017 and the 2021 U.S. Open which was held here at Torrey Pines.
Behind Rahm sits Justin Thomas at 14-1 (+1400), who’s coming off a T5 finish at the Sentry ToC earlier this month. He hasn’t played in this tournament since 2015 where he missed the cut.
Dustin Johnson at 25-1 (+2500) will make his 2022 Season debut. He struggled in 2021 failing to win any event with his best finish coming late in the season at the BMW Championship. The last time he played in this tournament was back in 2017 where he missed the cut.
Other “horses for the course” this week will most likely be Tony Finau (25-1), Patrick Reed (50-1), Ryan Palmer (66-1), and Marc Leishman (33-1).
Notable Withdraws Include: Charley Hoffman, Lucas Herbert, K.H. Lee, Nate Lashley, Ryan Moore, Kelly Kraft, Chris Stroud
Since 2015, Tony Finau has competed in the Farmers Insurance Open every year and has finished inside the Top 20 every time but once. The lone finish outside the Top 20 was actually when he made his tournament debut in 2015 where he finished 24th.
Last week Tony struggled a bit the first two rounds at the American Express before finding his groove a bit on Saturday and Sunday. He would end up finishing T40 for the Tournament shooting 67-69 in those final two rounds. Prior to last week he competed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he finished T19.
While Tony Finau is what we would consider to be a “bomber” by any means ranking 95th in Driving Distance, he does rank 24th in Strokes Gained Off The Tee. In addition to that he ranks 39th in Strokes Gained Approach. Both of these categories are crucial this week in order to do well and combine that with his tournament history, he should snag another Top 20 finish.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Luke List (+100) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Luke List sets up very nicely for Torrey Pines. He’s one of the longest hitters on Tour ranking 5th in Driving Distance which should give him a slight leg up on the field. He’s 5th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 16th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and 33rd in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green. List has finished inside the Top 40 every year at this tournament since 2018 with his best finish coming last year when he finished 10th.
He’s in great form as of late finishing T22-T10-T11 in his last three events. The one concern for List will be his putting which he struggles with a bit. He’s currently 208th in terms of Strokes Gained: Putting. One encouraging sign is that he did actually gain strokes putting in his final round of last week. Hopefully he can continue that into this week, and if he does, he definitely has a shot to be in the mix on Sunday.
Francesco Molinari (+120) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Francesco Molinari is coming off a T6 finish at the American Express last week. Last year at the Farmers Insurance Open he finished 10th and T13 at the 2021 U.S. Open that Torrey Pines hosted. While he isn’t long off the tee’s he is very accurate which is big for this week as the rough can be extremely penalizing. While Molinari hasn’t been a great putter historically he did gain strokes putting last week. He seems to play well at this course despite not being the ideal fit so let’s hope that trend continues this week.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Farmers Insurance Open : 3.93 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) dunks during the first half of a NBA basketball game against the Oklahoma City Thunder Sunday, April 7, 2019, in Minneapolis. Towns finished with a game-high 53 points as Oklahoma won 132-126. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)
525 Timberwolves 1H -1.5* at 526 Trailblazers
Minnesota has continued to be one of the best 1st half teams on a streak (9-1 1H ATS L10, 8-2 L10 on the road) I’ve been riding for some time. Tough to go against the Blazers at home, especially given they’ve been playing so well of late. So, it is just another small play for me. That being said, the T’Wolves need the conference wins to stay afloat in the West and seem determined to get there this year. One and a half points should not be a tall order for a Minnesota team coming into Portland with the Blazers off a long road trip looking to integrate G Norman Powell back into the mix. Give me the Timberwolves 1st half!
Check more of my plays out at my Patreon as I am up just shy of +40 units since November! All of my plays are public day after games.
We have a 8 games tonight in the NHL. There’s some pretty good matchups but the highlight of the night will be the Vegas Golden Knights against the Carolina Hurricanes. Speaking of that game, I breakdown that matchup below and offer some more picks for tonight.
Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Vegas Golden Knights: 25-15-2, 1st Pacific (13-10-2 Away)
Golden Knights are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
Over is 10-2 in Golden Knights last 12 road games.
Carolina are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home.
Over is 6-2 in Carolinas last 8 games.
Preview:
The Golden Knights and Carolina will square off for the 2nd time this season with Carolina winning 4-2 back on November 16th. Teuvo Teravanien, Vincent Trocheck, Sebastian Aho, and Martin Necas all had two points in that game.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights will be in a tough situation here playing back to back games against a very good Carolina Hurricanes team. Last night they defeated the Washington Capitals 1-0 behind a great performance from Robin Lehner.
Vegas is a tricky team to try and figure out as of late. They’ve rattled off back to back wins but neither win was very convincing. To be fair they are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now which has significantly affected their lineup.
Offensively, Vegas has been good on the year averaging 3.46 Goals For with an even better average on the road averaging 3.69. They have a +3.25 Goals For Above Expected which is good considering the amount of chances they generate. Vegas is also one of the best teams at generating High Danger Shots For with 92 on the season ranking 3rd. Their Power Play is currently 12th best in the NHL and has been great in the past few games besides last night.
In terms of player props, I would look to target Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Evgenii Dadonov who have all recorded at least a point in three of their last four games.
As previously mentioned, they are without Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty who remain on IR. Newly acquired Jack Eichel is also set to make his Vegas debut as early as next month, which again, would provide a significant boost to their offense. In addition to those three guys, they’ll also be with Riley Smith who remains in COVID protocols.
Defensively, Vegas has struggled recently allowing three or more goals in 3 of their 4 games. The lone outlier came last night where Robin Lehner stood on his head and finished the night with a +3.45 GSAx. Vegas has a 3.02 Goals Against Average on the season but has been better on the road only allowing an average of 2.94. Their Penalty Kill ranks 22nd but did shut down Washington on all five of their Power Play opportunities.
Alec Martinez remains sidelined for the Golden Knights but is expected to return to the ice early next month. Zach Whitecloud is also out for tonight’s matchup with a back injury.
The starting goaltender for Vegas remains a mystery. Robin Lehner was sensational last night and may have to start again if Laurent Brossoit cannot go. He’s currently listed as Questionable with an undisclosed injury. So definitely something to monitor before placing your bets tonight. I’ll update the article as soon as the starter is announced. Lehner has a +3.3 GSAx on the year while Brossoit has a +1.0 GSAx.
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are coming off a 7-4 loss against the New Jersey Devils on Saturday. Prior to that they had won three straight defeating the Rangers, Bruins, and Canucks. The Hurricanes currently sit 4 points behind the Rangers for the Metropolitan division but do have 5 games in hand.
When you look at complete teams, Carolina is definitely in the conversation. Offensively they rank 4th in the NHL in terms of Goals Per game averaging 3.58. They’ve also scored four or more goals in their past 4 games. They have the 5th best Power Play converting at a rate of 26.5%. Prior to the Devils, they had scored at least one Power Play goal in their previous three games.
In terms of injuries up front, Teuvo Teravanien is questionable to return tonight with a lower body injury. Jordan Martinook is out for tonight as he remains in COVID protocols.
If you’re looking to target player props start with Andrei Svechnikov who has tallied at least two points in his past four games. Tony DeAngelo is also riding a four game point streak.
When you look at them from a defensive prospective they rank even better. They’re 1st in the NHL in Goals Allowed Per Game averaging 2.39. At home they allow even less goals per game with an average of 2.33. They allow the fewest Shots on Goal per game and have the 2nd best Penalty Kill. However, they have allowed at least one Power Play goal against in their past three games. They also have struggled a bit in terms of goals against allowing 7 and 3 in their last two games versus mediocre offenses.
It looks as though Frederick Anderson will get the start in net tonight for Carolina. He’s been their go to guy all season and has played well with a +19.8 GSAx in 27 games played.
When looking at this matchup, the Hurricanes are just flat out the better team especially at home. Vegas is coming off a tough fought game, that they shouldn’t have won against Washington. The Golden Knights goaltender remains in question and regardless of who starts for them, Carolina has a significant advantage in net. The Golden Knights are also dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment while Carolina is relatively healthy. The Hurricanes have had several days off to rest and should get the win at home.
Other Picks For Today:
LEON DRAISAITL POWER PLAY POINTS OVER 0.5 POINTS (+100), DraftKings 1/25 2:18 PM
Vancouver continues to struggle on the Penalty Kill. They rank 32rd in the NHL and have given up at least one Power Play goal against in their last 7 games. Edmonton’s Power Play runs through Draisaitl so as long as they score one, he should be involved in the play.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS 60 MINUTE LINE (-120), Draftkings 1/25 2:24 PM
While Seattle has played better at home, this should be a let down spot for the Kraken here. They’re coming off a massive upset against Florida on Sunday. After a few days off they take on a scrappy Nashville team that’s looked good in their last two games.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
DALLAS, TX - OCTOBER 22: Maximilian Kleber #42 of the Dallas Mavericks celebrates after scoring against the Chicago Bulls in the second half at American Airlines Center on October 22, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
In addition to this free play, I have 2 plays reserved for my premium members(1 NBA, 1 CBB). With another winner last night on the Louisville/Virginia UNDER, my premium plays are now hitting at a 58.3% clip and have netted my members +44.1u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Mavericks/Warriors UNDER 211.5(-110)–9:10 PM CT
Contrary to popular belief, the Warriors are not great offensively. They rank just 13th in offensive efficiency this season, and over their last 3 games, that efficiency rating drops to 24th. Dallas has had a top 5 defense in the NBA virtually all season and is playing the best defense in the league over their past 3 games by a fairly wide margin. That said, Golden State has ranked as the top defense in the league all season themselves and will face a Dallas offense that ranks just 22nd in offensive efficiency this season and only 26th over their past 3 games. In addition to having a below average offense, the Mavericks also run at the 2nd slowest pace in the league; Golden State runs at a pretty average tempo themselves. Without laying out those numbers, I’d expect a lot of public bettors to assume this to be a high scoring game given the historical reputation around these two organizations. The numbers say otherwise. I’ll play this one Under the total and endorse this down to 210.
Historically, the Timberwolves are a bottom-feeder in the NBA, but you can’t treat this team as such. Minnesota is 23-23 on the season and enters tonight having won 3 of their last 4 games(wins over Warriors, Knicks, and Nets). The Timberwolves rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency over their last 3 games and enter this game rested. Portland, on the other hand, just completed a cross-country, 6 game road trip that wrapped up in Toronto on Sunday night. I like to fade teams in their first home game off of a long road trip, and considering it’s the Blazers we’re talking about, I will use that angle once again here. Don’t let Portland’s 20-26 record fool you; this has been a disastrous season for all parties. Damian Lillard is out long term, and the Blazers will also be without 2 key front court pieces in Larry Nance Jr. and Cody Zeller tonight; Karl Anthony Towns should feast in this one. While Norman Powell does return tonight, he hasn’t played since January 7th, so I’d expect his impact to be minimal. I read almost nothing into Portland’s recent success; this is a bad spot for a bad team. I think Minnesota controls this game from start to finish.
*CBB(1u): Cincinnati 1H -2(-110) @ Temple–6 PM CT
This will be Temple’s first game in 13 days after a pause in their schedule. While the Owls have won their last 3 games, that 2 week pause surely will kill any momentum they had created. Cincinnati is starting to play really well in conference play; they have won 4 out of their last 5, including a road win at Wichita State. Temple is likely to see the effects of their layoff come early in the game, mostly on the offensive end of the floor. Cincinnati ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency this season and shouldn’t be pushed too much by a slow-tempo Owls offense. This is a situational play for me in fading Temple early in this game off of a long break, but Cincinnati is also a team that’s trending upwards.
What’s up party people! We’re here for our first NBA show of 2022, kicking off a new season of Laying the Points podcasts as we grow, grow, GROW!
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