I’m officially OFF the Pacers, expecting that Sabonis is gonna be out today. Sorry guys — didn’t expect that.
This bet could still very well hit, the Pacers have a ton of talent. But I can’t do it without Sabonis.
January 20th CBB Free Play
I enjoyed a 4-1, +3.4u Wednesday which brings me to 23-15-1, +9.1u in the month of January! In addition to this free play, I have an NBA play that’s reserved for my premium members. My premium plays are hitting at a 57.9% clip and have netted my members +42.2u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Saint Louis -2.5(-110) @ UMASS–6 PM CT
UMASS is an interesting team because, despite shooting 41.4% from 3 this season, they hold just a 7-9 record. That’s likely because this Minutemen team plays some of the worst defense in CBB, ranking 332nd in defensive efficiency out of 358 teams. If a team has to be nearly precise to pick up a win, I almost always look to play against them. Saint Louis has all the motivation in the world to pick up this road win as they try to climb up the A10 standings, and frankly, I think this team has what it takes to make a second half push. The Billikens hover right around 75th in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have proven to me that they can win in tougher road environments than they’ll find themselves in tonight. Earlier in the season, they traveled across the country to take on Boise State(#51 in KenPom) and walked out of there with a win. More recently, they got their feet wet with a road game at Dayton; although they narrowly lost, those types of games prepare you to take care of business when you enter easier road matchups. This line opened up at 3.5 before being bet down to 2.5, but I disagree with that line movement. I like the Billikens to take care of business tonight.
January 20th NBA Premium Play
*NBA(1u): Warriors -7(-110) vs Pacers–9 PM CT
The Warriors are in a pretty easy stretch of their schedule having played Detroit on Tuesday and the Pacers and Rockets on deck the next 2 nights. With home games against the Jazz and Mavericks looming, I don’t think Steve Kerr is going to want to push any of his key guys too much over the next 2 nights, which keeps this as a 1H play. As a result, I think we’ll get Golden State’s best effort early in this game; by all accounts, they should totally dominate this Pacers squad. Indiana has won just twice over their last 12 games and appears to have woven the white flag on this season. They actually picked up a comeback win against the Lakers in LA last night, but I don’t expect them to recover well in the second game of the back-to-back(with travel). Golden State is trustworthy, while Indiana is certainly a team you want your money against. I like the Warriors to take a double-digit lead into the half.
Rob Vinciletti: Thursday NCAAB Road Warrior Pick and Preview
Thursday card has a 6* NCAAB Rare Blowout, a Triple Perfect NHL Total, NBA and an Australian open Open Tennis play. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Oakland at 8:00 eastern. The Grizzlies are on a 6 game win streak and take on a dismal Wisconsin Milwaukee team. The Grizzlies are far better on both sides of the ball. The favorite in this series has covered 5 of the last 6. The Panthers have failed to cover 5 of 6 vs .600 or better teams and 21 of 29 at home. They are ranked 299th in the nation in scoring and will have a tough time with an athletic Oakland team. Lay the points with the Grizzlies. On Thursday another Powerful card is up. The Lead play is a rare 5* NCAAB Blowout. We also have a Triple Perfect NHL Total, Early Soccer, NBA and Tennis. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with Oakland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Premiums, 1.20
Well we had a subpar day in the NBA, going 1-3 Wednesday, although our unit allocation was spot on. Our one win was our only 2 unit play on the Hornets. It’s another really tough day of NBA games with limited value. Let’s see what we can find. Full NFL Picks will be out by tomorrow.
NBA Picks:
- Knicks -3.5 **
- This is a good get-right spot for the Knicks after two disappointing losses. They’re at home, they’re healthy, they’re a deeper and better team than the Pelicans. Get it done, New York!
- Pacers 1H +6.5 *
- This line is disrespectful for an Indiana team that’s 14-8 ATS as an underdog and 5-2 ATS off no rest. Indiana is all about momentum and rhythm and this is a great spot for them to get up for. We’re playing the first half since I think that momentum from last night will carry into today – I’d rather avoid the full game since Indiana could tank out towards the end.
Expected Bets For – Episode 3 – January 20, 2022 NHL Breakdown
On this week of Expected Bets For we have special guest Chuck, aka @FrancoTheBanker on Twitter to help breakdown Thursday January 20th’s NHL slate.
Its an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically the player prop market that Chuck specializes in.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
- NHL News
- Introduction to Player Prop Betting
- Betting Strategies specific to Player Props
- Finding Value on Player Props
- Evaluating Trends and Recency bias
You can follow Chuck on Twitter @FrancoTheBanker and find all of his plays there.
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
NBA Wednesday Action
517 Thunder at 518 Spurs 1Q Total 56.5
We know the Spurs like to push the pace, however in their L11 which included their brutal 7 game road trip, they are only 5-6 O/U. But, if you didn’t know, right now they are tops in the NBA at 8-1-1 1Q O/U L10 at home. I like the 1Q over here and the books have adjusted bringing this one up to 56.5 which does concern me when looking at the Thunder’s ability to score. But surprisingly in their L5, they have also been coming out quickly at 3-1-1 1Q O/U L5 in road games and 6-3-1 O/U L10 on the road. That likely has to do with the Thunder getting their guard SGA back, who loves to push the pace. I’ll ride this 1Q over trend with two young teams that both have been coming out quick in their respective court situations! It’s just another small play for me as the Spurs are averaging 57.5 in 1st quarters at home Thunder are only averaging 53 in the 1st but have been trending the other way since SGA has been back, I’ll take a piece of the 1st quarter over.
518 Spurs 1Q OV 56.5*
January 19th CBB Free Plays
In addition to this 2 pack of CBB plays, I also have 3 plays reserved for my premium winners(2 CBB, 1 NBA). With a winner on the Davidson/VCU UNDER last night, my premium plays are hitting at a 57.3% clip and have netted my members +38.7u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Boston College +8 @ Louisville–6 PM CT
This line makes absolutely no sense to me; perhaps many people don’t realize just how bad Louisville is playing right now. Louisville has lost 3 straight coming into this one, including double-digit losses against NC State and Pittsburgh. It’s one thing to get blown out by Duke and North Carolina, but it’s another to get smoked by 2 bottom-feeders in the ACC. The Cardinals are atrocious offensively, shooting just 42% from the floor, 31% from beyond the arc, and turning the ball over 13.5 times per game. Boston College is not great themselves, but they’ve surprisingly been pretty competitive as of late. They won on the road at Clemson this past Saturday after narrowly losing to Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech. This line is just way off, and I absolutely love that the public is on Louisville in this one for their name alone.
*CBB(1u): Texas A&M +7(-110) vs Kentucky–7:30 PM CT
Texas A&M should have a sold out crowd in Reed Arena, and if you don’t think that matters, you don’t watch enough College Basketball. Kentucky has played just 3 true road games this season; they lost by 4 at Notre Dame, 5 at LSU, and scooted past Vanderbilt with a 12 point win. This is one of John Calipari’s better teams in recent memory, but they haven’t proven to me that they can win by margin on the road in a hostile environment. Texas A&M(15-2) is nowhere as good as their record says and will almost certainly regress in the coming weeks, but they play solid on the defensive end of the floor(47th according to KenPom) and come into this game off 4 straight conference wins. I’m not saying A&M pulls out the outright upset, but I expect this game to come down to the wire.
January 19th Premium Plays
*CBB(1.5u): Virginia Tech ML(-115) @ NC State–6 PM CT
Virginia Tech being a 1/1.5 point favorite against this Wolfpack team is laughable for many reasons. NC State is just 2-5 in conference play thanks to a defense that is allowing 78.5 PPG over those 7 games and is ranked a whopping 196th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Virginia Tech can be very reliant on the 3, but they also shoot over 39% from beyond the arc(top 10 in CBB), so why wouldn’t they be? These teams actually played back on January 4th, with NC State squeaking out a 5 point win in Blacksburg. However, it’s worth noting that Virginia Tech was off a 2 week pause in their schedule that saw 2 games get postponed. This Hokies team is much better than their 9-7 record indicates; the worse of these 2 teams will not sweep this regular season series. I like the moneyline in this matchup up to -125, though -120(or less) should be widely available.
*CBB(1u): Creighton -3.5(-110) vs St John’s–6 PM CT
Creighton has had a wacky month schedule-wise. Since December 17th, this team has only played 3 games; prior to their game at Xavier this past Saturday, they hadn’t played in 10 days. Losing 80-73 at Xavier is nothing to hold your head about, and in all reality, if Creighton doesn’t turn the ball over 21 times, they actually probably win that game. In any case, the Bluejays will be back in their home arena tonight for the first time since December 17th; expect a great atmosphere in this one. St John’s is a streaky team that likes to push the pace offensively, but they also average about 14 turnovers/game(238th in CBB). Additionally, the Johnnies are vulnerable defensively, ranking outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. I can trust Creighton much more than St John’s, and given the circumstances, I’ll lay the short number with the more complete team tonight.
*CBB(1u): Mavericks -3.5(-110) vs Raptors–7:40 PM CT
This will be the 4th straight road game for Toronto, and with the way they’ve approached this road trip, I think fatigue will start to become a huge factor. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have played over 40 minutes in each of the first 3 games of this road trip; while I respect Nick Nurse for taking the regular season seriously, it does put Toronto behind the 8 ball as they get deeper into their road trip and play more rested teams. This will be Dallas’ 3rd straight home game, and while they narrowly squeaked out a win against the Thunder on Monday, this Mavs team is still scorching hot(9-1 over their last 10). The Mavs are playing the best defense in the NBA over the past 3 games and are top 5 in that category throughout this season; meanwhile, the Raptors rank in the bottom half in both offensive and defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. I like this spot for the Mavericks given the Raptors’ travel and rest disadvantages, so I’ll keep riding the wave with this Dallas squad tonight.
Premiums, 1.19
A few wins in CBB eh? We’ll take it! Not a ton I like on the card today so they’re mostly 1 unit plays. Here are today’s picks:
NBA:
- Magic/Sixers under 213 *
- The Sixers are coming off a loss and the Magic are the perfect victims for them to dominate. Philly slows this game down and Orlando continues to show lackluster offense.
- T-Wolves/Hawks under 234 *
- Minnesota is off a back to back and the Hawks finally showed a modicum of defense in their last game against Milwaukee. This total is too high- I have it around 226.
- Hornets +4.5 **
- Here I go supporting Charlotte again but I just love how they match up against teams like the Celtics. Especially with Marcus Smart out, the fast-paced Hornets offense might just prove too much for a slow-paced Boston team.
- Lakers -4.5 *
- The Lakers have their backs against the wall and LeBron is playing inspired basketball. The Pacers’ players just aren’t happy. All Lakers for me in this one.
