DENVER, CO - MARCH 28: Aaron Gordon #50 of the Denver Nuggets puts two fingers in the air during the game against the Atlanta Hawks on March 28, 2021 at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images)
Portland is without their top 4 offensive threats entering tonight’s matchup with the Nuggets. CJ McCollum has been out for a while, Damian Lillard elected to get surgery that will keep him out long term, Norm Powell is in the health protocols, and Anfernee Simons is out for this game. Simons has really been the only bright spot for Portland lately; without him, this already inept team becomes even more inept. Denver has been really inconsistent this season(people who have tailed me all season should know), but the one thing that you can count on with the Nuggets is a slower paced game; Denver runs at the 4th slowest pace in the league. In their last 3 games without so many key pieces, Portland has also reverted into a slower-tempo team, running at the 7th slowest pace over that span. Denver should blow these chumps out, but what that opens the door for is a lot of garbage time variation in the 4th quarter. So, I’ll stick with the 1st Half of this game and play the Blazers 1H TT UNDER. Anything above 50 is a really sharp bet in my mind.
Thursday card has a Rare 6* NBA Perfect System Power Play and the BIG 12 Game Of The Month in NCAAB Action along with an Afternoon Carabao Cup Total. NHL Comp Play below.
The NHL Comp Play is on the Under 5.5 goals in the NY. Rangers at San Jose Game at 10:35 eastern. Both teams are worse than League average as the Rangers are 19th and the Sharks 21st. The Rangers are ranked 4th on defense. The Rangers are 7-0 under vs the West conference , 20 of 28 when favored as well as 5 of 7 vs a winning team. San Jose has gone under 4 of 5 off a win, 13 of 17 vs the Metropolitan Conference and 4 of 5 under vs .600 or better teams. Look for this game to be tight and play under the total. On Thursday in NBA The lead play is a rare 6* Perfect System NBA Side. In College hoops the BIG 12 Game Of The month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on faceboo/twitter to Jump on now as continue cash out in all sports. For the NHL Comp play. Play the Rangers and Sharks under the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Steve and I did it! We placed 5th overall in the Circa Sports Million with a 114k prize! Dreams coming true and we are SO DAMN GRATEFUL to all of you for your support! That being said, the NFL isn’t over! Check out our reactions to a big weekend and our picks/analysis for this week’s wildcard contests!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 61-28-1 (68%)
NBA: 138-106 (57%), +44.52 units
Hi All! The Lakers and Mavs disappoint to give us a relatively even day in betting. Onto the next, and below is my full NFL list for Wildcard Weekend, too.
NBA Premiums, 1.13:
Bucks 1Q ML *
The Bucks are a strong 1Q team while the Warriors have started relatively slow this year compared to their average. Milwaukee is coming off two tough road losses and should be ready to apply revenge here against the visiting Warriors. Look for this game to slow down in the 2nd half – a live under bet might be a good look there.
Grizzlies -4.5 **
This is a potential let-down spot, but the Grizzlies are on absolute fire right now and this number is too low. They’re a considerably better team than Minnesota, period. Ja should EAT, too.
Nuggets 1H -4.5 **
The Nuggets are one of the better 1st half teams in the NBA – the Trail Blazers are one of the worst. Portland is also way, way too injured.
NFL Full Premiums, Wild Card Weekend:
Bengals -5.5 *
Raiders/Bengals over 49 **
Patriots +4 **
Eagles +8.5 **
Eagles ML (sprinkle, up to you what you wager, I suggest nothing big)
49ers +3 **
49ers win *
Steelers +13 **
Rams -4 *
If you want more analysis for my NFL plays, listen to “Laying the Points” when it’s released on TheOddsBreakers podcast network today or, just ask!
Coming off a 3-0, +3u night, I’m back at it today with 3 plays(2 CBB, 1 NBA). 2 of those plays are reserved for my premium members. My premium plays are hitting at a 57% clip and netted my members +36.25u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): UCF +1.5(-110) vs Memphis–6 PM CT
Memphis is arguably one of the most talented teams in the country. However, for this roster to boast a 9-5 record is a direct reflection on their HC Penny Hardaway. This team would be legendary in the AAU circuit, but I don’t believe they have what it takes to contend in College Basketball. UCF’s 9-4 record might not jump out at you, but the Knights have played very well this season against their stiffest competition. They beat Michigan by 14, beat Miami by 6, and lost narrowly to Oklahoma. While UCF has lost their last 2 games, I think that creates an even better buying opportunity for them in this spot. It’s tough betting against Memphis given their potential, but I’m still not ready to buy-in that Penny Hardaway has figured out how to consistently win these types of games.
*CBB(1.5u): Georgia/Mississippi State OVER 143(-110)–6 PM CT
For as good as Georgia was at football this season, their basketball team(5-10) is the laughing stock of the SEC this year. Through 2 conference games, they have allowed 86.5 PPG. Mississippi State’s offense is ranked in the top 30 by KenPom, is averaging 75 PPG this season, and are pretty efficient in virtually every area on that end of the floor. However, the Bulldogs have underperformed defensively as well, allowing 82 to a subpar Ole Miss offense in their last game. Georgia has started to push the pace in conference play, which has led to a 79 point performance against Texas A&M and a 77 point output against Kentucky. This total is far too low and neglects how Georgia is going to approach this game; I like the OVER as my best bet for tonight.
*NBA(1u): Mavericks/Knicks 1H UNDER 105(-110)–6:40 PM CT
The Mavs and the Knicks run at the 2 slowest paces in the NBA, and neither team seems eager to push the pace. In fact, over their last 3 games, the Knicks have run less than 94 possessions per game, by far the lowest mark in the NBA. Dallas has a top 5 defense in the NBA and will face off with a Knicks offense that is still working through trying to find the right mix of personnel. Luka Doncic can obviously take over a game at will, but he will be without a key presence down low in Kristaps Porzingis. Throw in the fact that this game is nationally televised on ESPN, I think each of these teams will continue to play extremely hard defensively. This is a “first to 100 wins” type of game, but in order to avoid Overtime ruining this bet, I’ll play the 1H UNDER here.
Did I mention we’re on a 25-9 NBA run over the last 2 weeks? Can’t complain about that shit, eh!? I think I accidentally said it was a 25-8 run on Twitter but, tomAYto, tomAto.
I have a few leans today and as a reminder, they’re just leans and not official plays. Usually that’s the case when my numbers are too close to what the line says but I still think there’s extra value on the one side.
NBA Picks, 1.12:
Hornets +5.5 *
Philly could be without Harris and Curry today, but even if they’re a go they won’t be 100%. The Hornets nearly beat the Sixers twice this year with a banged up unit. I think Charlotte could overwhelm Philly’s slow-paced offense throughout this game and I really like them to keep it close.
Mavericks -2 *
Tonight’s game will exhibit the Luka-effect. Luka Doncic is by far the best player on the floor and NYK could be without Kemba and D. Rose again, which would really hurt their perimeter offense. Trust in Luka to carry Dallas to a win over an overrated Knicks team.
Cavs +6.5 **
No way I can’t play this number. The Jazz are still elite but they’re without Rudy Gobert again today and the Cleveland bigs should be able to EAT all night. The Cavs should keep this close all game or win, this number is off.
Lakers -2.5 **
I keep picking the Lakers and it might seem square but this version of LAL is considerably better than a Kings’ unit that CANNOT figure out how to play good defense. Trust in LeBron.
Leans:
Magic/Wizards under 217.5: Two underwhelming offenses and the Wiz must be tired after last night’s tiring contest against OKC.
Nets ML: The Kyrie effect might be enough against a Bulls unit that’s playing on a back to back after putting up 133 points last night.
I will be starting a premium service starting next week. This will include all my NHL plays. In addition to these plays, I will also provide a detailed breakdown on each of them along with units. The main goal is to obviously continuing profiting but also to help you expand your knowledge on the NHL and understand how I approach a game to help you become a better bettor. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to me on any Social media listed at the end of the article.
We have a small slate of games tonight in the NHL with just 3. There was originally four scheduled but MIN vs EDM has been postponed. It’s a really terrible slate to be honest looking at the matchups and the early line movement. So it’s going to be a small card.
A new Episode of Expected Bets For will be out tonight so be on the lookout for that! I’ll have Nick Martin of the Action Network on this week to breakdown Thursdays games.
I want to thank everyone who has supported me so far and I hope you will continue to as well.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Arizona Coyotes
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Toronto Maple Leafs: 22-8-3, 3rd Atlantic (8-4-2 Away)
Arizona Coyotes: 7-23-3, 8th Central (3-12-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Toronto Maple Leafs
-315
-335
-1.5 (-120)
o6.0 (-120)
Arizona Coyotes
+245
+250
+1.5 (+100)
u6.0 (+100)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto’s last 12 games.
Toronto are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games.
Arizona are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games.
Picks:
Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3.5 (-130)
The Maple Leafs have one of the best offenses in the NHL. Toronto ranks 7th averaging 3.39 Goals Per Game. Arizona ranks dead last in the NHL giving up an average of 3.79 Goals Against. The Maple Leads have scored 4-4-4-6-5 Goals For in their last 5 games. Arizona has given up 4-4-3-8-5 Goals Against in their last 5 games.
TOR/ ARI OVER 6.0 (-120)
This was a late add given Toronto’s starting goalie being listed as Peter Mrazek. He has given up 4-4-3 Goals Against in his last three starts. I expect this number to move slightly but I’m locking it in now (Wednesday Morning 1:28 AM). Despite Arizona’s horrendous offense, they should be able to get at least 1-2 past Mrazek given their recent form. The Yotes also average more goals at home but also give up more which adds to this play.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Cameron Smith captures the Sentry Tournament of Champions shooting an outstanding -34 under Par. With that score, Cam Smith not only set the course record but the PGA record for lowest score on Tour as well. He was able to hold off the #1 Player in the World, John Rahm who finished just one shot behind him.
We’re hopping islands this week and heading to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Most players who took place in the Sentry ToC will play this week as they’re already in Hawaii. However, we did have one notable withdraw earlier this week with Bryson Dechambeau citing a sore wrist. He didn’t play well at all last week and finished 25th in a field of just 39.
The Sony Open will be the last tournament held in Hawaii as we begin the California swing next week. The American Express, Farmer’s Insurance Open, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am will all take place out there.
Last week Kapalua offered wide open fairways, major elevation changes, and large greens. However, Waialae is very different as the course is flat, narrow, and features tight difficult to hit greens. Despite the contrast in courses, the last 6 of 7 winners at the Sony Open have also taken part in the Sentry Tournament of Champions which is something to watch out for.
Looking at the board quickly as it stands, Cam Smith is now the favorite to win this tournament at 9/8-1. He won this event back in 2020 and is coming off a great performance so it makes sense that he’s the top guy. However, that being said there is absolutely no value in betting Cam at that number. This is a full field tournament and the only guy that should be a single digit favorite in a full field is Rahm and possibly Morikawa.
Besides Cam Smith, Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, and Marc Leishman are all listed at 20-1 or lower.
While we wont see the winning score in the mid to low 30’s, it should be another birdie-fest given the weather conditions.
Lets get into the Sony Open and breakdown the course and our picks.
Tournament Information:
Dates: January 13th, 2022- January 16th, 2022
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
Course: Waialae Country Club
Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,044 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties
Greens: Bermudagrass .120″
Fairways: Bermudagrass .400″
Rough: Bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 11.0 feet
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.350 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 83
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,100 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
2021: 67.98 (-2.02)
Course/ Tournament History:
The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open and has been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It is the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.
The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish.
Justin Thomas, who will not be playing this week set the course record back in 2017 shooting 27 under par with a total of 253 strokes. John Huston actually recorded a lower score of 28 under par back in 1998 but, finished with a total of 260 strokes as the par has been adjusted since then.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Like I previously mentioned, Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy to win. The fairways are treelined and tight, while the greens are small with tough pin locations. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as GIR has been a major key to victory here.
Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. Its a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There’s four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.
The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have similar conditions as last week which means it won’t be a major factor. In addition to the wind, the tight fairways can punish inaccurate players off the tee putting them at a disadvantage for their approach shots.
When you talk about a “horse for the course” look no further than Marc Leishman. Undoubtedly he’s a popular play this week but there’s also a reason for that. He’s gaining strokes putting on Bermuda, a great approach player, and in great form. Last week he finished T10 at the Sentry while gaining strokes putting and on approach, both key factors this week. In addition to that, he’s recent finishes as Waialae include 3-28-4. His odds have dropped a bit since opening given the amount of money that has come in on him but, at 20-1 he’s still a very solid play.
Kevin Kisner (+3500) – Caesars
Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
I think Kevin Kisner said it best himself when he made a comment about only being able to compete on shorter courses. Well look no further than the Sony Open which places an emphasis on a strong iron and short game both of which Kisner possess. He did struggle a bit last year here finishing 32nd but has placed within the Top 5 three times here before. Kisner is historically better on Bermuda gaining strokes and while he lacks distance off the tee makes up for it in terms of accuracy ranking 1st.
Talor Gooch (+3500) – Caesars
Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Talor Gooch may be the newest breakout star on the PGA Tour. He had a fantastic fall-swing where he captured his first win on Tour at the RSM Classic. He hasn’t done great at this event in the past but hasn’t been in the form he’s currently in. His best finish at the Sony Open came back in 2018 where he finished 18th. He teed it up for the first time last week following his victory and finished 15th at the Sentry ToC. Gooch has become one of the top iron players on the Tour recently and is gaining strokes on Bermudagrass. He’s listed at 35-1 for a reason but, given his recently found success, he has a shot here.
Alex Smalley (+16000) – FanDuel
Risk: 0.05 to win 8.0 Units
Let’s look at the long shot of the week, Alex Smalley. Prior to missing the cut at the RSM Classic, his last event, he had two Top 20’s at the Butterfield Bermuda and the HPE Houston Open. He’s 31st in Par 4 Scoring and 44th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders. While his putting does concern me a bit, he did gain strokes putting at the Houston Open. He’s a longshot for a reason but if he can put together a solid putting performance he should fair well here. I also have him for Top 40 at +185 which is the safer play.
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.71 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Webb Simpson (+165) – Pointsbet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units
As most in the “Golf Twitter” community know, Fan Duel offered this at +450 on Tuesday before it being bet down to the current number. However, even at the current number it’s still a play for me. Webb Simpson has finished inside the Top 10 in his last three times at this course. He’s ranks well in terms of Par 4 scoring and has gained the second most strokes putting on Bermuda since 2018. Simpson’s iron game and putting makes him a great fit for this course.
Total Risk on Top 10: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Christian Bezuidenhout (+250) – FanDuel
Risk 0.5 to win 1.25 Units
He’s best finish during the fall swing came back at Mayakoba where he finished T15. He’s not a long player off the tee by any means but this course does fit him well. Historically he’s a great putting on the Bermuda surface gaining 0.88 strokes putting since 2018. Additionally he’s a solid approach player which another key area this week. This will be his first time playing this course but should do well based on the historical data needed to win here.
Denny McCarthy (+360) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 1.8 Units
Denny McCarthy has been one of the best putters on Bermuda in the past few years. He’s around 50th in terms of Driving Accuracy which is important given the tight course. McCarthy is a solid iron/short game player ranking 37th in GIR % and 29th SG: Around the Green. Additionally he’s 14th in Scoring Average as it’s crucial to go low here to be competitive. The last stat that sold me on this play was his Par 4 Scoring Average that ranks 18th on Tour. In his last four events, he has finished in the Top 20 in three of them so he’s in great form.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Alex Smalley (+185) – FanDuel
Risk 1.0 Units to win 1.85 Units
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sony Open : 3.71 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
