*CFB(1.5u): North Carolina -10(-110) vs South Carolina–10:30 AM CT
Each of these teams finished the season 6-6, but that doesn’t begin to tell the full story about the talent levels of each. North Carolina has a truly dynamic QB in Sam Howell; while his completion percentage and overall efficiency was down this season, that’s not all on him. This Tar Heel offensive line yielded 43 sacks this season. While the OL is poor in pass block, they do a pretty good job at setting up for the run. Howell ran for 825 yards and 11 TD’s this season, while RB Ty Chandler ran for 1,063 yards(6.1 YPC) and 13 TD’s. South Carolina will be missing their best pass rusher in this game, and while this unit allowed just 24 PPG this season, they seldom faced as dynamic of an offense as they will see here. In addition, South Carolina’s offense is PUTRID. They will start Zeb Noland at QB, who began this season as a graduate assistant on this Gamecock staff(no, that’s not a joke). On the year, Noland completed just 55% of his passes and threw for just 6.6 Y/A. SC’s top RB opted out, leaving just Kevin Harris(4 YPC this season) to run behind a pretty mediocre OL. North Carolina’s defense can be leaky, but they have only been exposed by viable offenses; that’s not what we’re getting here with South Carolina. This game presents a great opportunity for Sam Howell to improve his draft stock, and his HC Mack Brown has a good track record in bowl games(14-9 in career). Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks took advantage of a few flat spots from their opponents(I think of Florida and Auburn), but when you look at it, this isn’t a team that’s set up to compete against dynamic teams yet. I’ll lay the 10 with the Tar Heels.
*CFB(1u): Michigan State -3(+100) vs Pittsburgh–6 PM CT
Pittsburgh had about as good of an offensive season as you could’ve hoped for, but with QB Kenny Pickett opting out of this game, all of that really goes out of the window. Pickett accounted for 4300 yards and 42 TD’s; his presence will be missed greatly. Stepping in will be Nick Patti, who has just 64 career attempts under his belt. An underrated aspect of this game is that, in addition to Pickett, Pitt will also be without OC Mark Whipple after he took the Nebraska OC job. Pickett credits Whipple for much of the Panthers’ success this season(it sure as hell ain’t Pat Narduzzi leading the way), so without him calling plays, we’re likely to see Pitt revert back to their old habits. Michigan State will also be without their star player in RB Kenneth Walker III, but I think they’ll be able to live without him. QB Payton Thorne had a solid season(2900 yards, 24 TD’s, 8.5 Y/A), and he has a pair of really dynamic WR’s at his disposal. Pitt proved to be leaky against good passing offenses this season, giving up 44 to Western Michigan, 38 to Miami, and 38 to Virginia. I don’t want to act like the Spartans have a great defense themselves, but I have a hard time seeing Patti being able to exploit some of MSU’s weaknesses in the secondary. I wish I would’ve played this when it was at 2.5, but we are getting even odds at this -3 number. I think MSU wins by more than a field goal.
In the words of the great Tom Brady and many before him, LET’S *!&@%$ GOOOO!!! Steve and I are in 22nd place in Circa, Week 17, what else is there to say? Check out the pod and let’s get this money!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 52-27-1 (65%)
NBA: 115-95 (54%), +26.42 units
We are 25-14 (64%) in our last 39 College Basketball plays and 48-32 (60%) overall on the CBB season!! Tonight, we have 2 premium plays available for you. Sign up now to access my All Access Sides Subscription exclusively at the OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
The Samford Bulldogs and the Furman Paladins meet today from Timmons Arena. Samford is 10-2 this year and is coming off a win over Ole Miss and Furman is 8-5 so far after the Paladins beat Presbyterian in their last game. Furman enters with the better strength of schedule but both teams are scoring more than their opposing defense is surrendering and they are limiting the opposition on defense, holding them to less points than the offenses average. There are contrasting tastes between these two squads as Samford (92nd in the country in game pace) prefers more of an up-and-down game, while Furman (236th) is happy to put the brakes on if need be. Samford is 104th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and will be up against the Paladins 268th ranked defense while Furman ranks 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and will be up against the Bulldogs 269th adjusted defensive efficiency. Both teams also score a bunch of their points from behind the arc while Samford shoots 33.3% and Furman ranks 16th in the country by shooting 39% from three. Additionally, the Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 5-2-1 in Bulldogs last 8 overall, 26-12 in Bulldogs last 38 games as a road underdog, 36-17 in Bulldogs last 53 road games, 9-1 in Paladins last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 in Paladins last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 5-1 in Paladins last 6 games as a home favorite, 5-1 in Paladins last 6 home games and is 11-3 in Paladins last 14 overall. Take Over 149.5
The Lakers have been totally unreliable as of late(they screwed us on Christmas Day, and I’m still not over it), but they are catching all of the value in this spot. Memphis is coming off an emotional high as they beat the Suns on a Ja Morant buzzer beater to conclude a winning road trip. After spending the last week or so on the West coast, they’ll return home tonight without two of their best perimeter defenders in Dillon Brooks and DeAnthony Melton. The Lakers did play last night and are still short-handed; however, there is a chance they will welcome back Austin Reaves, Wayne Ellington, and Kent Bazemore tonight. Also, the Lakers are 2-0 in their last 2 back-to-back spots; given how bad they’ve been, LeBron and co. realize they can’t afford to not show up mentally. Lastly, the Grizzlies blew out the Lakers by double-digits just earlier this month, meaning that is still somewhat fresh on these Lakers’ minds. Like I said, I understand if you need to see more from these Lakers to put your money on them, but I do think they’re catching far too many points in this spot.
*CFB Same-Game Teaser(1u): Iowa State +8 vs Clemson AND UNDER 50.5(-110)–4:45 PM CT
I don’t advocate playing teasers very often, but in a low variance game like this one, I think it’s a safe look. Clemson would not be favored in this game if you went strictly off of this season’s numbers; their run over the past 5 years has consistently left them overvalued in the marketplace. Clemson QB DJ Uiagalielei is absolutely atrocious; he completed less than 55% of his passes and threw for just 6 Y/A, one of the lowest marks from a player that started every game this season. DJ’s failures led to the TIgers converting just 35.7% of the time on third down. Clemson started to rely on their run game towards the end of the season, but they won’t have such an easy time against an experienced Iowa State squad. The Cyclones had a few disappointing performances defensively, yet, they still gave up less than 21 PPG this season. As bad as Clemson’s offense was this season, their defense was in peak form, allowing 15 PPG this season and completely dominating against the run. Iowa State star RB Breece Hall opted out of this one to declare for the NFL Draft. Given that backup RB Jirehl Brock gathered just 23 carries this season, the Cyclones will likely be forced to rely strictly on the pass today. Brock Purdy completed 73% of his passes and threw for a standard 8.1 Y/A, but even with Hall in there, ISU converted just 36% of the time on 3rd down this season. This game has “defense” written all over it, but I do think Purdy(4th year starter) will have just enough tricks up his sleeve to keep Iowa State in it to the end.
*NBA(1u): Pacers -3.5(-110) vs Hornets–6:10 PM CT
This is a double revenge spot for the Pacers as they lost to the Hornets twice this season by a combined 4 points. In addition to the added motivation, the Pacers should have the advantage in the paint tonight as the Hornets are without PJ Washington and Miles Bridges in this game; this should free up both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner to have good nights. The Hornets run at a manically fast pace, but in doing so, they expose themselves to some lopsided losses when they can’t match up on the defensive end of the floor. There’s a reason the 14-20 Pacers are favored over the 18-17 Hornets; this is a gift-wrapped spot for Indiana.
*NBA(1u): Hawks +8.5(-110) @ Bulls–7:10 PM CT
The Bulls took care of the Hawks just 2 nights ago, but now, they’ll have to lay 4.5 more points in the second game of this double-header. If you’ve been with me, you know I love playing on the team who lost the first game of a double header when they rematch for the second time. I know that the Hawks roster has been depleted by the health/safety protocols, but 4 of their 5 starters are good to go for tonight. Trae Young should look much sharper in his second game off the protocols, and Clint Capela(who had just 8 points in Game 1 and played only 26 minutes) should be poised for a big night facing off against Bulls C Nikola Vucevic. 8.5 is way too many points to be giving the Hawks in this spot, especially with Trae Young, Cam Reddish, and Clint Capela all good to go.
The 49ers out-gained the Titans 389 to 278 yet lost 20-17. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt them as well as poor red zone efficiency.
The Browns out-gained the Packers 408 to 311 yet lost 24-22. A 4-0 turnover ratio from Baker hurt them. They had a shot to win at the end. Packers played to lose at the end.
The Cardinals out-gained the Colts 378 to 346 yet lost 22-16. Poor coaching and 11 penalties got the Cardinals.
The Lions out-gained the Falcons 338 to 254 yet lost 20-16. Equal turnovers but bad red zone efficiency got the Lions. Backup QB as well.
The Vikings out-gained the Rams 361 to 656 yet lost 30-23. A 3-1 turnover ratio got them.
The Jaguars out-gained the Jets 384 to 373 yet lost 26-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio hurt them.
The Raiders out-gained the Broncos 342 to 158 yet only won 17-13. A 3-0 turnover ratio made it hard on them yet they still persevered.
Hump day card has a Pair of top Rated 6* Plays one a 100% Totals system in the Cheez it Bowl and the other an NCAAB 21-0 Court Crusher along with NHL. NBA Comp play below.
The NBA Comp play is on Phoenix at 9:10 eastern. The Sun are off a pair of home favored losses and we note that home favorites of more than 14 in that role taking on an opponent with no rest off a road dog loss like the Thunder are perfect to the spread over the last 15+ years. The Suns are ranked 3rd on offense and 4th on defense and may not take their foot off the pedal tonight against a Thunder team that lost a close one on Sacramento last night. The Suns have covered 4 of 5 vs losing teams. Look for them to get the cover. On Wednesday another powerful card is up and we are on a 12-2 run the last 3 days. Tonight we have a Pair of highest rated 6* in Bowl and College hoops. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash in all sports. For the NBA Comp play. Play on Phoenix. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Why is Notre Dame a 3 star play? Unlike previous years, the Irish have been one of the best ATS teams in the country. They’re 7-2 ATS as a favorite and 9-3 overall, and this bowl game sets up really well for an all-out effort against a shaky Oklahoma State team. The Irish also have added motivation after Brian Kelly surprisingly shipped off to LSU before season’s end. New head coach Marcus Freeman is charismatic, turned ND’s defense around, and players love him. The Irish maintain continuity with this hire and should be ultra-motivated to perform for their new leader. Not to mention, because of Freeman, the Irish rank sixth nationally in interceptions (15) and defensive touchdowns (4), seventh in total sacks (40.0), 11th in turnovers gained (23) and scoring defense (18.2) and 18th in third-down conversion percentage (.329). The 40.0 team sacks is one shy of the program record of 41 from the 1996 season. Take the Irish at a discount – I’d be SHOCKED if they lose.
A wonderful, exquisite, enchanting (okay you get it) 4-0 NBA day sets us on the right path for the week. Let’s keep this shit rolling and get over 30 units, shall we?
NBA Picks:
Pacers TT over 114 ** The Hornets have the perfect, sucky defense and accelerated pace to cultivate a fluid performance from Indiana’s healthy offense
Grizzlies -4.5 ** This line is a discount on a much better team. The Lakers are off a back-to-back in a high scoring game where LeBron, Russ, and others logged a ton of minutes. The Grizzlies are the best paint team in the NBA and should dominate down-low in this contest.
Suns -14.5 * This line is probably inflated but it’s a perfect spot for the Suns to avenge recent losses – they started to surge at the end of their last contest against the Grizzlies but Ja shut down the comeback – it carries over into tonight.
Jazz -6.5 * I’m very low on the Trail Blazers this year and they have virtually no big-men playing tonight. Gobert and the efficient Utah offense should eat and cover.
Cancelled – Dec. 29 – Fenway Bowl. Boston MA: SMU vs. Virginia -2.5 O/U 71.5, ESPN, 11 a.m. – First time bowl
Motivation: SMU – High – Will want to win first Fenway Bowl. Virginia – High – Will want to win as well. Coach Bronco Mendenhall’s final game with the program after announcing he will resign at the end of the season.
Injuries/Hold outs: Virginia: offensive coordinator Robert Anae won’t coach in the bowl as he leaves the program. Virginia’s 3rd best WR Billy Kemp IV and offensive lineman Bobby Haskins will miss the Fenway Bowl after undergoing surgery. SMU: Will have a new head coach at the helm after the departure of Sonny Dykes, who also took offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and a few other assistants. New head coach Rhett Lashlee, who has plenty of familiarity with Virginia after serving as offensive coordinator for Miami, will not coach the Mustangs in the bowl game. Instead, Jim Leavitt will take over. Two of SMU’s top wide receivers Reggie Roberson and Danny Gray opted out of the bowl after declaring for the NFL draft. That pair combined for 100 catches for 1,428 yards and 15 touchdowns.
SOS: SMU is 89tha and Virginia’s is 37th.
Coach Bowl ATS: SMU N/A and Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia, 8-6
Metrics: Yards per play both of these teams are quite equal and looking at the defense, both teams are pretty bad with Virginia ranking 109th in success rate and SMU ranking 39th in an easier conference. SMU’s defense is 98th in opponent EPA per game. If there is an advantage, SMU does average 4.6 yards per rush and ranks 10th in rush EPA to Virginia giving up a massive 5.8 yards per rush and 124th in opponent rush EPA. Being that Brennen Armstrong is playing QB, Virginia should be able to pass at 8.5 yards per attempt while SMU gives up 8.2. If it wasn’t for SMU’s 2 best pass catchers being out, I would lean more towards them. This total is high but I have to still lean over. SMU ranks 16th in Tempo while Virginia ranks 30th.
Decision: No play but I think we have a close game.
Dec. 29 – Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY: Maryland vs. Virginia Tech +3.5 O/U 55, ESPN, 2:15 p.m.
Motivation: Maryland – Medium High – Not the best destination for a bowl game for an East Coast team but it’s nice for them to finally make one. Tauli Tagovailoa will be motivated to try and go pro. Virginia Tech – Medium High – I can see some motivation to play well for the new coach and positions for next year.
Injuries/Hold outs: Interim head coach J.C. Price will lead the Hokies against Maryland. The current staff will stay on board through the bowl game during the transition to new head coach Brent Pry. The Hokies will not have five starters who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, including: WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amare Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, G Lecitus Smith, QB Braxton Burmeister has also entered the transfer portal and will miss the Pinstripe Bowl, leaving junior Connor Blumrick as the starter.
SOS: Virginia Tech is 66th and Maryland’s is 17th
Coach Bowl ATS: Maryland N/A and Virginia Tech N/A
Metrics: Both teams are even in yards per play. Maryland has had the harder schedule and Virginia Tech is playing for next year. Maryland is 75th in EPA margin while Virginia Tech is 83rd.
Decision: Neither of these teams are that good but I see more motivation now with Maryland being that there are no holdouts and they get to play in New York. I made a mistake playing Virginia Tech early and now I want to wait for a 3 and play Maryland.
Maryland -3 – 2.5 stars
Dec. 29 – Cheez-It Bowl Orlando FL: Clemson vs. Iowa State +1.5 O/U 44, ESPN, 5:45 p.m.
Motivation: Clemson – Medium Low – Clemson had much higher hopes but at least the kids get to go to Orlando. Iowa State – High – This team was out of it for a while and will have an opportunity to play a great school.
Injuries/Hold outs: Iowa State running back Breece Hall will forgo his remaining eligibility and enter the NFL Draft. WRs Joe Scates and Tarique Milton, for the Cheez-It Bowl. That pair combined for 23 catches, 423 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Iowa State will be without 2020 co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, starting cornerback Kym-Mani King, and linebacker Aric Horne, as all three entered the transfer portal.
Meanwhile, the Tigers lost longtime defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who took the head coaching position at Oklahoma. Also, offensive coordinator Tony Elliott got the head coaching gig at Virginia. Clemson receiver Justyn Ross will not be back for the Cheez-It Bowl, but Joseph Ngata has a chance. EJ Williams will return.
SOS: Clemson 55th and Iowa State 23rd
Coach Bowl Ats: Dabo Swinney, Clemson, 11-6 and Matt Campbell, Iowa State, 3-4
Metrics: Iowa State has a .7 net yard per play advantage over Clemson. They also have the better quarterback. Clemson has the better talent but it took them a while to put it together. Iowa State is 27th in EPA margin while Clemson is 47th. My PRs have the game at Pickem.
Decision This is a real scary line here being that Iowa State is the much better team metrically, as well as SOS, yet Clemson is the favorite due to that defense and the strong finish winning 5 games in a row. I have a strong lean to Iowa State but I am not sure I will take it until the day of.
Dec. 29 – Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX: Oklahoma vs. Oregon +7 O/U 60, ESPN, 9:15 p.m. – They should rename this game to the sad-ass bowl.
Motivation: Oklahoma – Low – Lost their coach and hopes of making it to the championship and many players won’t care. Oregon – Low – Also lost their coach and hopes of making it to the championship and this team got embarrassed by Utah.
Injuries/Hold outs: Both teams have interim coaches, as Bob Stoops will lead the Sooners against Bryan McClendon and the Ducks. Both teams will also have to make do without star defensive players who declared for the NFL Draft. Oregon will be without defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, while Oklahoma will be missing defensive linemen Nik Bonitto and Perrion Winfrey. Oregon’s Top WR Devon Williams and starting cornerback DJ James declared for the draft and won’t play in the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma’s second-leading receiver, Jadon Haselwood, also entered the transfer portal and committed to Arkansas. Former starting quarterback Spencer Rattler and tight end Austin Stogner (14 catches for 166 yards and 3 TD) also hit the portal. More to come.
SOS: Oklahoma’s 53rd and Oregon’s is 30th
Coach Bowl ATS Oregon N/A and Oklahoma N/A
Metrics: Oklahoma has a .2 net yard per play advantage over Oregon. Oregon ranks 21 in EPA margin while Oklahoma ranks 42. My power ratings have Oklahoma -1. Oregon ranks 81st in pace to Oklahoma’s 80th. Reports are now that Oregon was missing about 30 players from practice.
Decision: There are so many variables in this game that I don’t really love a side. Lean the dog but what I do know is that with new coaches, these teams will not be rushing to do a lot on offense and will be more methodical. These teams already rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. These teams could have very low motivation anyways. Take the under 60.
Under 60 – 9 stars
Dec. 30 – Duke’s Mayo Bowl Charlotte NC, : North Carolina vs. South Carolina +9 O/U 58, ESPN, 11:30 a.m.
Motivation: North Carolina – Medium – I can see this team finishing strong and I think that Sam Howell Plays. South Carolina – Medium High – I can also see this team showing up for Shane Beamer who made a bowl game his first year.
Injuries/Hold outs: South Carolina will be without leading rusher ZaQuandre White and star edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare, who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Lastly, SC quarterback Jason Brown has also entered the transfer portal, leaving Zeb Noland as the starter
SOS: South Carolina 33rd and North Carolina 52nd.
Coach Bowl ATS: Mack Brown, North Carolina 1-1 with the Tarheels and South Carolina N/A
Metrics: North Carolina has a 1.4 net yard per play advantage. South Carolina is 97th in EPA Margin while North Carolina is 58th. North Carolina averages 5.4 rushing yards per attempt while South Carolina gives up 4.7. My power ratings have UNC -16
Decision. North Carolina should be able to run all over this team and now that SC is without their best pass rushers, Sam Howell will eat. Bet UNC barring any massive news and hold outs.
UNC -9 – 3 stars
Dec. 30 – Music City Bowl, Nashville TN: Purdue vs. Tennessee -5 O/U 64.5, ESPN, 3 p.m.
Motivation: Purdue – High – Jeff Brohm will want to beat the SEC. Tennessee – High – Josh Hueple trying to build his program.
Injuries/Hold outs: For Purdue, defensive end George Karlaftis and wide receiver David Bell are holding out for the draft. The Vols will be without number 2 running back TiYon Evans, who entered the transfer portal and recently committed to Louisville.
SOS: Purdue 8th and Tennessee 48th
Coach Bowl ATS: Jeff Brohm, Purdue 2-2 and Josh Heupel, Tennessee 1-2
Metrics: Tennessee has a big 1 net yard per play advantage over Purdue but I will say that their strength of schedule was weaker. Purdue ranks 37th in EPA Margin and Tennessee ranks 52nd respectively. My power ratings have Purdue -1.
Decision: The Boilermakers do not run the ball well at all and will have to pass to beat Tennessee. The fact that David Bell is opting out of the bowl really hurts the Boilers here and I think that the line movement was warranted. I do not have a play or a lean at 5.
Dec. 30 – Peach Bowl, Atlanta GA: Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh +2.5 O/U 55, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Motivation: Michigan State – High – Sparty would love to beat the ACC Champ here. Pittsburgh – Low – They won the ACC and they are still partying.
Injuries/Hold outs: Pitt quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Kenny Pickett will skip the Peach Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft, leaving Nick Patti as the starter. Also gone for Pitt is offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, for the OC job at Nebraska. On the defensive side of the ball, cornerback Damarri Mathis has opted out for the NFL Draft. Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III opted out for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Michigan State 27th and Pittsburgh 65th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Michigan State N/A and Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh, 1-3
Metrics: My power ratings have Pittsburgh -1 but I also have Kenny Pickett worth 10 points to this team over their backup. EPA Margin has Pittsburgh at 8 and Michigan State at 43. Pitt has a .5 YPP margin on Michigan State but State has had the much harder schedule. Both defenses are pretty stout and Michigan State would have a weakness against the pass if Pickett was in.
Decision: There is a massive motivation advantage here for Michigan State. The Walker loss also doesn’t even compare to Pittsburgh losing picket. This should at least be a -6 point spread for Michigan State looking at Pitt without Pickett.
Michigan State -2.5 for 3 stars
Dec. 30 – Las Vegas Bowl: Arizona State vs. Wisconsin -6 O/U 41.5, ESPN, 10:30 p.m.
Motivation: Arizona State – Medium – This team was strange this year and had bigger expectations. Wisconsin – Medium High – This team loves to win bowl games and their season was essentially over earlier this year. Not sure why Leonard hasn’t left yet for a real system.
Injuries/Hold outs: Arizona State will be without two of its top backs, Rachaad White (declared for NFL Draft) and Deamonte Trayanum (entered transfer portal). ASU cornerbacks Chase Lucas and Jack Jones have also opted out. On the Wisconsin side, safety Collin Wilder will miss the bowl due to injury.
SOS: Wisconsin is 6th and Arizona State is 67th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Paul Chryst, Wisconsin, 5-3 and Herm Edwards, Arizona State 1-1.
Metrics: My power ratings has Wisconsin -5.5. ASU is 11th in EPA Margin while Wisconsin is 26th. Wisconsin’s defense is number 1 in stuff rate and number 10 in sack rate.
Decision: The only thing that is keeping me off Wisconsin is that they haven’t faced many rushing quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and in the past, they haven’t fared well against them. In saying that, ASU is a bit decimated at cornerback and maybe Graham Mertz can get it together. Lean Wisconsin for now.
