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NFL Week 17 Motivational Spots

It is very complicated now being that no team has clinched the overall number 1 seed and the bye.   What I will say is that the packers have the easiest rout and just need to win 1 game with 1 Cowboys loss over the next 2 weeks.   Any team that is in the hunt should be motivated here but teams that don’t control their own destiny are suspect.

Teams that don’t control their own destiny and could win out without making the playoffs.

NFC:

  • Saints have the best shot if they win out because the Eagles have to play Washington and the Cowboys.   Even at 7-8 They can win out and most likely get in.  I see some motivation this week vs Carolina.  
  • The Vikings need help but it could easily happen being that the Saints have no good QB and the Eagles have a harder schedule.  I see big motivation this week vs Green bay.
  • Washington at 6-9 need to win out and need multiple losses from the 49ers, Saints, Vikings and Eagles.  Washington could have lower motivation vs the Eagles.
  • The Falcons are playing the Bills and then the Saints.  Even if they win out they could be toast because all other 9-8 teams get the nod over them minus the Saints.  Lower motivation vs the Bills.

AFC:  

  • The LA Chargers at 8-7 can win out and not make the playoffs due to the Ravens at 8-7 having the tie breaker.   The Ravens have a tough schedule though vs the Rams and Steelers and the Chargers know it.   I see bigger motivation for the Chargers vs Denver
  • Las Vegas Raiders at 8-7 could make the playoffs because of the Ravens harder schedule and they face the Chargers the final week.  I can see bigger motivation for the Raiders at the Colts.
  • Miami Dolphins have a very tough path but being that they missed the playoffs last year, if they beat the Saints they are the 7 seed and need to win out to get in.  I can see bigger motivation for the Dolphins vs the Titans.
  • Both the Steelers and Browns play each other and it gives one of them the upper hand with a win.  Both teams are motivated
  • The Broncos need a ton of things to happen at 7-8 and I see lower motivation vs the LA Chargers minus maybe them taking out a division rival.

Potential Let Down Spots:

  • The Cowboys hosting The Cardinals could let down some after clinching division (BUT they still have a shot at winning out and getting the number 1 seed.)
  • The Broncos could mail it in after that nasty Raiders loss that almost took them out of the playoffs.
  • The Buccaneers vs the Jets after they clinched their division.  They only have a 4% chance at the number 1 seed.
  • Any team that is out of the playoffs and are not the Lions:  Washington, NY Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Bears, Panthers, NY Jets, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars.

Potential Get Up Spots:

Teams mentioned earlier as well as teams that are playing for the number 1 seed, to win the division and control of their own destiny.

  • Packers, Rams, Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Saints, Vikings, Lions (due to coach Campbell)
  • Chiefs, Titans, Bengals, Bills, Colts, Patriots, Ravens, Chargers, Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, Browns,

Rest Spots:

  • Packers have extra rest from Saturday game vs the Vikings.
  • Browns have extra rest from Saturday game vs the Steelers.
  • Titans have extra rest vs Miami after Thursday game.
  • 49ers have extra rest vs the Texans after Thursday game.
  • Dolphins have short rest vs the Titans after Monday game.
  • Saints have short rest vs Carolina after Monday game.

 

NHL Preview & Picks – December 29, 2021

The NHL was originally scheduled to have 12 games going tonight but, is down to six as of now (late Tuesday night). Given the mess that the NHL is currently in, I don’t even feel comfortable saying that all six of those games will happen. However, we’ll assume they are and try and find some winners!

 

New Jersey Devils @ Buffalo Sabres

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • New Jersey Devils: 10-15-5, 7th Metropolitan (3-8-2 Away)
  • Buffalo Sabres: 10-15-5, 6th Atlantic (6-8-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
New Jersey Devils -107 -130 -1.5 (+180) o5.5 (-120)
Buffalo Sabres -103 +110 +1.5 (-220) u5.5 (+100)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey’s last 5 games.
  • New Jersey are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
  • Buffalo are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games at home.

 

Preview:

New Jersey Devils

The Devils come into this game on a 6 game skid being outscored by opponents 26 to 12 during that stretch. To make matters worse, the Devils have only won a single game during the month of December.

Head coach Lindy Ruff is certainly on the hot seat and is soon to be looking for a new job soon if his team doesn’t turn it around.

New Jersey has looked lackluster on offense this year averaging only 2.27 Goals For Per 60. The injury to Jack Hughes early this season that kept him out for several games has certainly hurt them. The Devils currently have a -7.49 Goals For Above Expected which is trending in the wrong direction from last year.

Don’t get me wrong, New Jersey, like Buffalo, is a young team but, needs more playmakers up front. The last offensive weapon they had was Taylor Hall back in 2017-2018. I believe Jack Hughes can be that guy for them if Niko Hischier can return to form. Speaking of Hischier, he’s questionable for tonight’s game.

Jesper Bratt leads the team in points with 24 through 29 games played. The Devils will also be without Miles Wood tonight who remains on IR with a lower body injury.

Defensively, the Devils also have some issues. They currently have a 2.44 Goals Against Above Expected with an average of 2.8 Goals Against Per 60. New Jersey has allowed 66 High Danger Shots Against which ranks 3rd worst. If they Devil’s want to be competitive at all, they cannot continue to allow this from happening. They do not have great goaltending and cannot match teams with high powered offenses in a boat race.

Defenseman P.K. Subban will not be available tonight for them as he’s in protocol.

Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to get the start for the Devils as he was upgraded to probably yesterday. He’s currently recovering from a neck injury but, looks like he’ll start given the limited selection in New Jersey. On the year Blackwood has a -1.5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

 

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres certainly didn’t have high hopes entering this season given their current roster but have exceeded them. By no means was this team competing for a playoff spot but rather looking to build on their season last year under head coach Don Granato. Granato will likely watch the game from afar as he remains in protocols which means Matt Ellis will step in.

The Jack Eichel saga has finally come to an end and two of those pieces they got in return, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs, will be making their debuts in Sabre uniforms. In addition to those two, JJ Peterka will also me making his debut.

Buffalo has grabbed at least a point in each of their last four games. However, they haven’t played since the 17th of December as four of their games have been postponed.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who was called up from Rochester has been a welcomed sight. The Sabres have struggled to have a consistent goaltender since the Ryan Miller days but they may have their guy here.

Looking at this team from an offensive prospective, they haven’t been great. They’re currently led up front by 33 year old Kyle Okposo. However, Rasmus Dahlin, their former 1st round pick, has been much better this season at creating scoring chances. The Sabres are currently averaging 2.27 Goals For Per 60. Although, they do have a 3.71 Goals For Above Expected which is encouraging.

The Sabres are going to be without several of their forwards tonight who are in COVID-19 Protocols including; Jeff Skinner, Zemgus Girgensons, Vinnie Hinosroza, Drake Caggiula, and Dylan Cozens. In addition to those forwards, they’ll also be missing Andres Bjork and Tage Thompson.

Defensively, the Sabres haven’t been great either. They have a -7.62 Goals Against Above Expected while averaging 2.74 Goals Against Per 60. In terms of injuries they’ll be without Collin Miller, Will Butcher, and Robert Hagg.

The official starter has yet to be confirmed but I’m expecting it will be Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (UPL). In his five starts this season, he has a +3.2 GSAx, which leads all Buffalo goaltenders.

 

Pick:

  • BUFFALO SABRES (+110)
    • The Sabres are the far more depleted team coming into this matchup but look to be playing great team hockey as of late. They have some great young prospects in Rochester who will get their chance tonight and should impress. New Jersey has not looked good all month and honestly it’s most likely time for a new voice in the locker room. If the Devils go down tonight, Lindy Ruff may lose his job at the hands of the team he played and coached for.
    • Also if UPL does get the start, I also think Buffalo has the advantage in net given Blackwood’s recent performances. New Jersey also struggles on the road and averages significantly more goals against.

 

Other Plays for Tonight:

  • PHILADELPHIA/ SEATTLE OVER 5.5 (-135)
    • I’d like to start of by saying I usually don’t like laying this price on a Total. However, I do want to grab it before/if it moves to 6. Both goalies have struggled on the year and Seattle’s offense has been better at home.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Take Kings -5.5, 2 units

 

This acts as a hedge of sorts but I just have to take the Kings. There’s too many injured bigs on OKC and the Kings should be able to score at will. I still like the OKC TT over 107 – my numbers have it as a 122-114 finish. Let’s go!

NHL Preview & Picks – December 28, 2021

The NHL was scheduled to have a break around Christmas but, with the ongoing COVID-19 issues, it was extended a bit. However, we’re back with three games today so let’s breakdown those games and try and find some winners!

 

Montreal Canadiens @ Tampa Bay Lightning 

  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 20-6-4, 1st Atlantic (10-3-2 Home)
  • Montreal Canadiens: 7-21-3, 8th Atlantic (2-11-2 Away)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning +231 +240 -1.5 (-120) o6.0 (-115)
Montreal Canadiens -260 -290 +1.5 (+100) u6.0 (-105)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal’s last 5 games.
  • Montreal are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games.
  • Tampa Bay are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.

 

Preview:

Tampa Bay Lightning 

The Lightning come into this matchup red hot, only dropping one game so far during the month of December. They defeated Vegas on Tuesday night, 4-3, snapping Vegas’ 5 game winning streak.

Tampa will continue to be without head coach, Jon Cooper, who remains in COVID protocol. So, assistant coach Derek Lalonde will remain as the de facto head coach.

The Bolts have definitely been better offensively as of late but, are still without two of their top guys tonight in Point and Kucherov. In addition to those two, Tampa will also be without forwards Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Anthony Cirelli who are in COVID protocols. The Lightning currently average 2.46 Goals For Per 60 with a -3.21 Goals For Above Expected. Like I mentioned before, the loss of Kucherov continues to impact them especially on the Power Play where they rank 18th.

Defensively, Tampa will have to limit scoring chances like they’ve done all season given their situation in net. The Lightning have one of the best Goals Against Above Expected, -13.28, but, Andrei Vasilevskiy has played a major role in that number. Without him tonight, their defense will have to step up without a few key pieces. They’ll be without Mikhail Sergachev and Andrej Sustr as they have been placed in COVID protocols.

In net, Tampa will have Maxime Lagace, as Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brian Elliot are both out due to COVID. Lagace has played all season in Syracuse for Tampa’s AHL affiliate team.

Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens last game came back on December 16th, where they defeated Philadelphia 3-2 in a Shoot Out. They’ve had four games postponed since then due to an outbreak. Montreal will start a three game road trip tonight where they’ll face several of the NHL’s top team’s with a depleted roster.

This is not even close to the team we saw the Hab’s face off against the Lightning in last year’s Stanley Cup finals. The loss of Carey Price and Shea Weber to start the season were back breaking and with a majority of the team still in COVID protocols, this team will have their work cut out for them tonight.

There’s really not many positives to talk about when it comes to this team. Offensively, they have been awful averaging just 1.8 Goals For Per 60. On the other side of the puck, they have also struggled allowing an average of 2.54 Goals Against Per 60.

Sam Montembeault will get the start in net for Montreal tonight with a -4.8 GSAx on the season in his 8 games played.

 

Pick:

  • TB/ MTL OVER 6.0 (-115)
    • Given the current goalie situations for both teams, I like the Over in his position. The Canadiens will have a roster of young guns looking to prove themselves and trying to earn a permeant spot on the roster. The best way to do that will be to generate offensive for a team that so desperately needs it. While the Lightning are without a few key pieces, they have shown that it hasn’t impacted them much at all. Both teams have been trending towards the under but I think the Bolts continue to roll in a 5-2, 5-3 win tonight.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Fantasy Football Week 17 Championship!

The good news is that nobody clinched home field advantage!

Key Injuries:

  • RB Clyde Edwards Helaire – Collarbone and will miss this week.
  • RB James Robinson with a torn Achilles and out for the season.
  • RB Miles Sanders out this week with a hand injury
  • RB Jordan Howard out with a stinger and day to day.
  • WR Adam Thielen with an ankle injury again.
  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo torn a tendon
  • QB Carson Wentz has Covid

Waiver Wire:

  • RB Boston Scott for the Sanders/Howard injuries.
  • RB Rex Burkhead had a great game 150 yards and 2 TDS.
  • RB Darrell Williams for the CEH injury..
  • RB Derrick Gore also for the CEH injury.
  • RB Dare Ogunbowale for the James Robinson injury.
  • RB Keyshawn Vaugh if Fournette is still out.
  • QB Tre Lance might need to start.
  • WR Isaiah McKenzie for Buffalo had a monster game.

Non-Starters trending up for Week 17

  • RB Melvin Gordon vs the Chargers horrible rush D.
  • TE Tyler Higbee is due vs a bad Ravens pass D.
  • WR Odell Beckham will have a game vs the Ravens as well.
  • WR Amon Ra St. Brown will have a game vs Seattle’s bad D.
  • WR Devonte Smith vs Washington will have a game.
  • WR Antonio Brown vs a horrible Jets D.
  • RB D’Ernest Johnson will get some play vs a very bad Steelers defense if Hunt remains banged up.
  • RB Ronald Jones vs a bad Jets D.
  • RB Jeff Wilson vs Houston should do well.

Busts: 

  • RB Mike Davis vs Buffalo is a sad situation.
  • RB Michael Carter vs the Buccaneers.
  • RB Dare Ogunbowale vs the Patriots is dangerous unless you are desperate.
  • WR Cordarrelle Patterson vs Buffalo is not good.
  • RB Sony Michelle vs Baltimore is in danger.
  • RB Miles Gaskin vs Tennessee isn’t good.
  • RB Chuba Hubbard vs the Saints is bad.
  • WR Amari Cooper vs the angry Cardinals.

Nasty Sleeper: WR Amon Ra St. Brown will have a game vs Seattle’s bad D.

Premiums, 12.28 and Early NFL

 

NBA Picks:

  • Bucks -12.5 ** (Not much explanation needed here, expecting a blowout)
  • Lakers -5 ** (here I go on LAL again, I know, but it’s a perfect get-right spot)
  • Thunder TT over 107 * (scary taking the Thunder to score here but the Kings’ defense is terrible and I think OKC will need to catch up all game against a spirited Kings’ unit)
Bowl Game Picks (given Monday, Dec 20):
  • Auburn -1.5 **
  • NC State -1 **
Early NFL:
  • Dolphins/Titans under 41 * (this total will likely drop, take it now if you like the under)
  • Bills -14.5 ** (this could come down, but hard to not take the Bills immediately)
  • Bucs -13 *** (night night, Jets)

Podcast 91 – 21 – NFL Week 16 Recap – College Bowl Plays Dec 29th – 30th – Fantasy Football Week 17 – Sports Betting

We have a great show for you today!  D-Nasty is back for one final time this year for the Fantasy Football Championship Week!  First, Kiev O’Neil reacaps NFL week 16 and discusses some of the big Covid issues and the massive upsets.  Then, he gets into some misleading final scores as well as some motivational spots for NFL Week 17.   Next, Kiev talks about all of the bowl games from December 29th -30th with some leans and #FREEPLAYS!  Next, Dave comes on and the guys discuss some Fantasy Football to help you win your championship week.  Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed.  Finally, Dave and Kiev gives out his nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football championship or matchup!  Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers

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December 28th CFB Free Play

In addition to this free play, I have 4 CFB plays reserved for my premium members. I’ve netted +21.3u in CFB this season and am gearing up for a high volume week! To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Air Force/Louisville OVER 54.5(-110)–2:15 PM CT

Unlike the other service academies, Air Force runs with quite a bit of pace offensively(74.4 plays/game ranks 31st in CFB). This Falcons bunch led the country in rushing yards/game(341 yds/gm) but can also catch you sleeping with their passing game. Each of their top 2 WR’s average over 22 yards/reception, and QB Haaziq Daniels has thrown for 9.9 Y/A. Louisville is not a trustworthy defense, as shown when they gave up 52 to Kentucky their last time out. The Cardinals have major depth issues in their secondary which should be exploited by Air Force in both the option and play-action games. That said, I believe Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is bound to have himself a really nice game. The 3 year starter has already announced that he’s returning next season after showing improvement here in 2021. Cunningham threw 12 INT’s in 2020, but he cut that number in half this season. In addition to completing 62% of his passes and throwing for 8.7 Y/A, Cunningham also accounted for 968 yards and 19 TD’s on the ground. Air Force is not used to seeing a dynamic QB like this opposite of them; by giving up 39 to Nevada and 49 to Utah State, this Falcons defense proved that they are vulnerable when they step up in competition. This is a fairly standard total, but I don’t think it properly accounts for just how multiple each of these offenses is. I’ll play this one Over.

December 28th CFB Premium Plays

Sep 18, 2021; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers cornerbacks Jackie Matthews (3) and Nicktroy Fortune (11) celebrate after a stop late in the fourth quarter against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

*CFB(1.5u): Mississippi State -10(-110) vs Texas Tech–5:45 PM CT

Mississippi State employs a fast-paced, air-raid offense that saw QB Will Rogers throw for 4450 yards and 35 TD’s, all while completing 75% of his passes. Texas Tech’s defense was absolutely torched by teams who committed to the passing game against them; Texas scored 70, Oklahoma and TCU each scored 52, and Iowa State put up 38. Tech can get stops when facing more traditional offenses such as Baylor and Oklahoma State, but against a high-flying passing attack, their toast. They are also on their 3rd string QB as Donovan Smith will get his 5th straight start in this one. While Smith had some success for Tech, he also proved to be totally inept against Oklahoma State as the Red Raiders were shut out. I’m not comparing Miss State’s defense to Oklahoma State’s, but the Bulldogs found some success employing their bend–don’t-break defense this season. Smith will need to be precise to finish drives against this style of defense, but he has yet to prove to me he can do so. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a massive revenge game for Mike Leach, who will face his former employer that sent him packing for “player mistreatment”. Leach and this Bulldogs offense will control the game from start to finish; I’ve got no problem laying those 10 points. 

*CFB(1.5u): West Virginia +5(-110) vs Minnesota–9:15 PM CT

Minnesota is not a team that is built to win by margin, plain and simple. The Gophers offense runs at a very slow pace and employs a run-heavy attack, even with their top 2 RB’s out for the majority of the season. This is because PJ Fleck has zero trust in his WR room(he’s been public about this); despite having a 3rd year starting QB in Tanner Morgan, Fleck has little trust in his passing game. Hence, the Gophers score just 26 PPG. West Virginia allowed just 24 PPG this season and, like every team that faces Minnesota, should be able to sell out to stop the run. I’m not in love with this West Virginia offense, but their problems don’t stem from not being able to move the ball. QB Jarrett Doege is a 5th year player who threw for over 2900 yards this season; if he doesn’t throw for 11 INT’s this season, the Mountaineers probably win two of those close games they lost. RB Leddie Brown opted out of this game, but frankly, I think he’s one of the most overrated players in the country(just 4.8 YPC); the Mountaineers will be find without him. Minnesota has great defensive numbers, but they play in a division(B1G West) that doesn’t feature very many pass-first offenses. When you’re playing Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois, the scoring is just going to be at a premium on both sides. This line is ridiculous in my mind; I can understand Minnesota being a 2 point favorite, but if they want to give us 5 points in a very low variance game, I’m hopping all over that. West Virginia should be right in the mix to win this game. 

*CFB(0.5u): West Virginia ML(+170) vs Minnesota–9:15 PM CT

Analysis above. 

*CFB(1u): NC State -2(-110) vs UCLA–7 PM CT

UCLA would be the must sexier pick in this spot, but the reality is that NC State is the far more trustworthy team entering this matchup. The Wolfpack(9-3) lost their 2 conference games by a combined 4 points(1 pt loss to a rising Miami team, 3 point loss to 10 win Wake Forest). This team is very efficient on each side of the ball. Offensively, Devin Leary nabbed a fantastic 35 TD:5 INT ratio this season as the Wolfpack scored 33 PPG this season. Defensively, NC State allowed less than 20 PPG and used a fantastic pass rush to have their success. UCLA is a hard team to bet against because of their upside, but this team crumbled often this season. Sure, they easily handled LSU and USC, but they also lost outright at home to Fresno State and were uncompetitive against Arizona State and Utah. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a true dual-threat QB who got very hot towards the end of the season, but with nearly a month off between games, I’m not sure he’ll carry that momentum into this one. The Bruins deploy a really solid run game, but that is almost completely negated when you look at how bad they were in their front 7 defensively this season. I can trust NC State in this spot, while UCLA has proven that their swings in play are large and occur quite often. DTR’s legs keep this a 1u play for me, but I really like NC State in this matchup.