This week’s free pick features one of the worst NFL teams against one of the best, although the latter has seen some struggles recently. Steve and I are still hitting at a high rate in Circa heading into Week 13. Check out our official Circa Picks post tomorrow here at TheOddsBreakers and let’s get some more wins!
For all my premium picks every day, click here! NFL Circa Picks: 38-21-1
NBA Picks: 79-66 (54%), +14.34 units
Rams -13 (-105), 2.1 units: Most professional sports bettors set their own lines and power ratings before a game to assess how accurate the sportsbooks are. In this game, the power-rating disparity is huge. Despite some of their recent woes, the Rams are still one of the premiere teams in the NFL. They’re absolutely stacked with talent on both sides of the ball; they have one of the brightest minds in the game as their coach, they have a stud QB who can make all the throws, and they have two of the best defensive players in the world in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Sunday they’ll welcome an inexperienced, talent-poor opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their record indicates as much, but let’s look at some glaring stats that suggest the Jaguars match up very poorly against the Rams:
Points per game: 15.7, Rank: 31st
Opponent points per game: 25.7, Rank: 26th
3rd down conversion rate: 34.56%, Rank: 28th
TDs per game: 1.9, Rank: 28th
Yards per pass: 5.7, Rank: 31st
Opponent pass completion %: 71.31%, Rank: 31st
Turnover margin per game: -1.2, Rank: 31st
The Rams have lost 3 games in a row, but let’s not forget who they lost against. LAR has gone up against some of the best and most motivated teams in the NFL– the Titans, the 49ers (who always seem to best the Rams), and the Packers at Lambeau Field. It’s time for LAR to get some redemption. The Rams love to throw the ball and they do it very well (7.8 yards per pass, ranked 4th overall). They’re also top 10 in ppg (27.2) and although their defense has underperformed as of late, they only allow 5.3 yards per play and 3.9 yards per rush. That second stat is important because the only thing the Jaguars have done well is run the ball. James Robinson is one of the league’s most underrated running backs, rushing for 654 yards and 7 TDs so far this season. Robinson was limited in practice Friday and is now questionable for this contest. If he’s out, that’s a big loss for Jacksonville.
First year QB Trevor Lawrence has to go against an angry Aaron Donald and a Rams defense that’s top 10 in sack percentage. First year coach Urban Meyer has to travel across the continental U.S. to take on the brilliant Sean McVay, a coach who prides himself on puzzling defensive minded coaches. And Matthew Stafford, after having 3 of his worst games of the season, has to be salivating for some revenge on Sunday.
This is a “get right” game for the Rams. Although it’s tough to bet such a huge number against a professional football team, the Jaguars shouldn’t be a team that scares anybody. The Jags have lost by an average margin of 12.8 points this year. That’s right at the number, credit to the books, but all the intangibles stack up in favor of the Rams and by now we know that favorites of 10+ hit more often than they don’t (over 60% heading into this season over the last 5 years). They’re at home, they need a big win, they match up really well against Jacksonville, and they’re in a division where they can’t afford to fall asleep at the wheel. Trust that the Rams will take care of business in a big way Sunday.
I can’t buy into the high scores of these two teams’ past few games. When we think of Iowa, we think defense, right? But when I dig into the stats, these teams are more similar than I initially thought. Looking at Opponent Yards per Point, these defenses are comparable. Michigan’s defensive YPPt metric is surprisingly a touch better than the renowned Hawkeye D. Neither of these defenses should make too many mistakes. Offensive YPPt for these two are also very similar. Apples-to-apples in opponents, both played Penn State tight who has a pretty good defense and both almost lost to Nebraska. Then again, everybody in the Big Ten almost lost to Nebraska this year so… Kidding aside, I can see this one playing out more like their matchups with Penn State. I’ll take the extra point for the 1H under, but also like Iowa to stay close in this one by taking it slow… old school, Big Ten- December style.
321 IOWA 1H UN 22.5 (-105)- 1.05u
Enjoy Conference Championship Day! Visit https://www.patreon.com/kooziesports for more of my plays! +5.25u L2W!
Hit a little cold streak in the NBA but that won’t continue. First CFB pick hit — that’s a good start. Not a ton of value on today’s NBA card, but here are 2 NBA plays, a UFC parlay and a few CBB picks!
NBA:
Celtics/Blazers under 217 **
Spurs/Warriors under 219.5 *
UFC Parlay:
Brendan Allen + Rob Font – 2 units to win 2.23 units
Saturday card has 5 big College Football Championship plays including the Championship Game of the Year and an Executive Level TIER 1 Move. There is an NCAAB Platinum Supreme play, NBA and Soccer a huge card overall. Comp Play below.
The American Athletic Championship Play is on Cincinnati at 4:00 eastern. The Bearcats should get the cover here at home as they go for the undefeated season. The Bearcats have taken care of business vs the solid teams covering 5 straight vs teams with an 850 or better win percentage and they have covered 5 of 6 here vs Houston. The Cougars have won 11 straight after an opening game loss to Texas Tech. They have failed to cover 7 of 9 after scoring 40 or more and are 0-5 ats in December games. Cincy is 10-1 ats after allowing 100 or less yards rushing and are well balanced ranked 8th in the nation on both total yards allowed and points scored. With the tram with the better record having won 4 straight in this league championship. We will lay it with the Bearcats. On Saturday we have plays from noon to mid night with 5 big Football plays led by an Executive Level TIER 1 and the Championship Game of the Year. In hoops we have a solid NCAAB Card led by an Platinum Supreme, a Big NBA Play and soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or message on facebook/twitter toJump on and cash out all day and night. For the Comp play. Go with Cincinnati. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
The NHL only has 5 games going tonight with really only two exciting matchups. The first one is the San Jose Sharks vs the New York Rangers and the second being the Calgary Flames vs the Anaheim Ducks.
I breakdown the Calgary and Anaheim matchup and give several other picks so check it out!
Calgary Flames @ Anaheim Ducks
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Calgary Flames: 14-4-5, 1st Pacific (10-2-2 Away)
Anaheim Ducks: 13-8-3, 3rd Pacific (9-4-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Calgary Flames
-130
-125
-1.5 (+185)
o5.5 (+100)
Anaheim Ducks
+110
+105
+1.5 (-225)
u5.5 (-120)
Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary’s last 10 games.
Calgary are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Anaheim’s last 5 games.
Anaheim are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games.
Preview:
These teams will face off for a second time this season with Anaheim beating Calgary 3-2 in OT back on October 18th. However, Calgary did win the xGoal battle in that game 3.35 to 1.98. The difference maker was Gibson having a +1.35 GSAx, while Markstom had a -1.02 GSAx.
Calgary Flames
The Calgary Flames come into this game on 4 game win streak on the road. They beat the Los Angeles Kings on the road last night 3-2 which puts them in a tough spot tonight playing a good Anaheim team on no rest. That being said, Calgary has a 2-0-1 record on no days rest. The Flames have also been great on the road this year with a 10-2-2 record.
Offensively, the Flames have one of the best xGoal % with a 55.57%. Anything above 50% is good for reference when talking about xGoal %. Although Calgary has a good xGoal %, they have a -2.38 Goals For Above Expected which isn’t that great. This number correlates to their Shooting % (19th). What this means is that the Flames are failing to capitalize on scoring chances lower than expected. Calgary is averaging 2.44 Goals For Per 60 (12th) and 34.5 Shots on Goal per Game (5th). In their last four road games, which they’ve won all of them, they’re averaging 4.25 goals per game. Johnny Gaudreau leads the team in points with 25 through 22 games.
The Flames have also been one of the best defensive teams in the NHL to start the season giving up an average of 1.32 Goals Against Per 60 (1st). They also have the best Goals Against Above Expected in the League with a -14.87. Their Penalty Kill ranks 5th with a success rate of 87%. Jacob Markstrom started last night and has been confirmed as the starter tonight. He has been one of the best goalies this year with a +11.4 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Anaheim Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks enter tonight’s game on a two game win streak, defeating the Kings 5-4 on Tuesday, and the Golden Knights 6-5 on Wednesday. The Ducks have had a surprising start to the season in what was supposed to be a down year for them. They rattled off an 8 game win streak in early November but, have regressed a bit since then, as expected.
The Ducks have been solid at home this year with a 9-4-1 record. Anaheim has a xGoals % of 51.07% with a +1.66 Goals For Above Expected. They’re currently averaging 2.4 Goals For Per 60. Surprisingly, their Power Play has been one of their strong points this year ranking 3rd, after finishing dead last in PP% last year. Troy Terry leads the team with 25 points through 23 games. Ryan Getzlaf is questionable tonight which could hurt them as he has the second most points on the team. If he’s not able to go this will be a significant loss.
Anaheim has done a great job defensively of limiting opponents scoring chances only allowing 28 High Danger Shots Against. Although, they do have a +3.6 Goals Against Above Expected which isn’t great. The Ducks are allowing an average of 2.4 Goals Against Per 60 which is middle of the road. John Gibson is expected to start tonight for Anaheim but, has not been confirmed. Gibson has a -3.3 GSAx through his 18 starts.
Pick:
This is an interesting game given the spots both teams are in. Calgary has been great on the road but is playing on back to back nights. However, the Flames do have their ace in net tonight which gives them an advantage in terms of goalies. Anaheim has been great at home but, has been giving up a lot of goals lately. It should be a tight game like the first matchup between these two teams but, I think Calgary can pull this one out.
PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (-125)
Other plays for tonight:
EDMONTON OILERS TEAM TOTAL OVER 3.5 (+110)
FANDUEL ONLY – EDMONTON OILERS & OVER 5.5 (+220)
The Oilers have one of the best, if not the best offensive in the NHL. They average 2.68 Goals For Per 60 and face the Kraken with the worst Goals Against Per 60, 3.14. Also the first matchup between these two teams has 7 goals and I’m expecting a similar outcome tonight.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We are 32-21 in our last 52 College Football plays and have 2 leans for you for tonight’s Championship games. We also 1 CBB premium play available for tonight which you can access to with my with my All Access Sides Subscription exclusively at the OddsBreakers!
Western Kentucky/UTSA
This line opened up with UTSA favored -2.5 and it has swapped sides as of Friday around noon ET with Western Kentucky favored -3.5. That’s a huge line move and it even went through the key number of 3. The total opened at 73.5 and is now 73. I believe the Hilltoppers will be able to thrive in the passing game tonight with their offense averaging 8.6 yards per pass and will be will up against a vulnerable UTSA secondary who gives up 8 yards per pass. This will be a step up in class for this Roadrunners defense since their opposing offenses have averaged 359 yards per game and WKU gains 525 yards per game. We should see a fast paced game between these two squads with the Hilltoppers ranking 6th in tempo and UTSA 32nd. Western Kentucky owns the best offensive success rate in the nation and the 4th highest yards per play (7.04). Additionally, the Hilltoppers accumulate 80% of their yardage comes through the air as they throw the ball 65.9% (2nd most in country), accumulate 422.75 yards passing per game (best in nation) and have the 2nd most plays of 20 yards or more in the NCAA.
Your not getting the best number but I still lean Western Kentucky
Oregon/Utah
This line opened up with Utah favored by 3 and is now -2.5 with the total opening at 60.5 and is now down to 58. This will be a slower paced football game with Oregon ranking 74th in tempo and the Utes ranking 80th and will feature two top 10 rushing offenses who own top ten 3rd down conversion rates. Utah is the more balances offense and they more consistent defense who has a 3rd best sack rate in the nation and the 10th best yards per play margin. However, Utah just is not as good on the road. I am expecting this game to come down to the last couple minutes. On the season, Oregon rushes the ball 57.8% of the time and rush the ball 39.5 times per game. Two weeks ago, they only rushed the ball 23 times which had a lot to do with the Utes getting out in front and not letting up. The first quarter will be key for the Ducks and I believe they will be able to get back to their running game in this one.
That said, I still lean Utah and like the under as well.
My CFB record entering conference championship weekend is 90-74-1, +25.7u. In addition to these 3 free plays, I’ve reserved 5 plays for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 62% clip(77-47-1) and have netted my members +42.8u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky TT OVER 38.5(-110)–Fri. 6 PM CT
Western Kentucky’s offense has been a juggernaut all season long, and they don’t appear to be stopping now. The Hilltoppers rank 4th in the country in points/game(43.3 PPG) and are led by one of the best QB’s in college football. After 4 seasons at FCS Houston Baptist, Bailey Zappe entered the FBS as a senior and has totally lit it up. Zappe is averaging 414 yards/game this season while completing more than 70% of his passes; he’s also added 52 TD’s through the air. While the Conference USA is largely weak, Western Kentucky played a strong non-conference schedule that included Army, Indiana, and Michigan State. In those 3 games, the Hilltoppers averaged a respectable 32 PPG. UTSA was a cool story and all sitting at 11-0 prior to last week, but they laid a complete egg against 5-6 North Texas, losing 45-23. These teams actually played earlier in the season, with UTSA inching out a close 52-46 win over WKU(I cashed a 2u winner on the Over 70 in that one). In that game, the Hilltoppers left plenty of points on the field and should’ve easily put up 50+. Even looking at last week’s game, Zappe completed less than 50% of his passes and threw for just 6.8 yards/attempt, and the Hilltoppers still put up 53 points against Marshall. This offense is built to put up crooked numbers, and you’d have a hard time convincing me they won’t put up 40+ tonight.
*CFB(1u): Iowa 1H +6.5(+105) vs Michigan–Sat. 7 PM CT
Michigan pulled off the “impossible” last week with an upset win over Ohio State. If you follow CFB, there was perhaps no greater pressure on any program in the country to get a monkey off their back more than Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. It’s hard to say that this is a “let down spot” for Michigan given they have a berth to the playoff on the line(and I’m not saying it is), but it’s also worth noting that Michigan lives to beat Ohio State. The Wolverines employed a run heavy attack last week and totally dominated Ohio State up front, but I’m not so sure they’ll be able to do the same against Iowa. The Hawkeyes defense has held opponents to just 17 PPG this season have been respectable in their tougher matchups; numerous teams across the country would be 11-1 or 12-0 if they had Iowa’s defense. Michigan threw the kitchen sink at Ohio State last week and gave Iowa everything to prepare for. If Iowa can stop the run in this game, they will force Michigan QB Cade McNamara into unfamiliar territory. McNamara is a great game manager, but he’s not somebody I trust in obvious passing downs, especially when matching up with an Iowa defense that has forced the most INT’s in College Football this season. I think Michigan will be surprised in how tough this Hawkeye defense really is. I actually feel better about this Iowa offense than I did a few weeks ago. QB Spencer Petras doesn’t have great overall numbers and hasn’t been well protected this season, but after suffering an injury, he came back into the Nebraska game last week and led the Hawkeyes to a comeback victory. I think we’ll see one of Petras’s better performances this season, particularly because I think Iowa will be at least serviceable in the run game. RB Tyler Goodson got off to a slow start to the season, but over the past month, he has eclipsed the 100 yard mark 3 separate times, including against respectable defenses like Illinois and Nebraska. If there’s an area of Michigan’s defense you can pick on, it’s their LB unit. They were absolutely torched by Kenneth Walker of Michigan State(albeit in a different type of matchup) and have proven to be vulnerable at times. Iowa might not light up the scoreboard in this one(in fact, I can almost guarantee they won’t), but at the very least I expect them to be able to play some ball control. I’ll take the 6.5 points with Iowa in the 1H as I fully expect them to be competitive early on.
*CFB(1u): Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 71(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT
Wake Forest started out the season 8-0 because they played an incredibly weak schedule, but after playing better competition in the month of November, the Demon Deacons revealed their true colors. While they went 2-2 down the stretch of the season, the defense allowed an average of 49 PPG against North Carolina, NC State, and Clemson. Last week, they absolutely drubbed Boston College by a score of 41-10. However, when you look deeper, BC QB Phil Jurkovec went 3/11 for 19 yards through the air because he was playing at less than 50%. When Wake Forest has played the better offenses in the ACC, they’ve been completely exposed. Pitt falls right in line as one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Kenny Pickett has had a Heisman-caliber season, throwing for 40 TD’s while completing 68% of his passes. With a Y/A at 8.8, Pickett has proven his ability to pick apart defenses. As Pickett has continued to torch defenses, the Panther running game has really opened up, improving drastically throughout the stretch of the season. Wake struggles most with the run, and I feel very confident that they won’t handle Pickett well either. Despite all of this, Wake Forest has put themselves in this position because they too have a prolific offense; like Pitt, they’re averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Sam Hartman holds a Y/A mark at a good 8.8 and has thrown for 34 TD’s this season. While the senior QB is completing just 60% of his passes on the season and has also thrown 10 INT’s, Hartman has proven the ability to put the team on his back game-after-game. Pittsburgh has sputtered somewhat in these kind of matches this season, allowing 38 to Virginia and Miami late in the season. Each of these teams rank in the Top 5 in the country in plays/game, so plenty of opportunities will be available. This total doesn’t do justice to what each of these offenses can do; I’ll play the Over.
*CFB(1.5u): Oregon/Utah UNDER 58(-110)–Fri. 7 PM CT
These teams played just 2 weeks ago, and we were able to cash the Under in that one as well. In all honesty, it should’ve been even more low-scoring than the 38-7 final score indicates. Utah got off to a scorching hot start and also added a pair of somewhat fluky touchdowns right before the Half. Even with all of that madness, the game stayed well under. Tonight, I’m expecting a competitive and close game that goes down to the wire. Oregon responded last week with a convincing win over Oregon State(we cashed a 2u winner in that one) and has found themselves in this spot before having won the past 2 Pac 12 Championship games. Oregon QB Anthony Brown has played better than I expected him to down the stretch of the season and holds respectable numbers this season(64% completion, 7.8 Y/A, 15 TD: 4 INT). Even so, I don’t worry about Brown too much in the vertical passing game(given the 7.8 Y/A); Oregon’s path to success tonight is moving the chains and using Brown in the run game. Utah has a borderline elite LB unit that has stymied opposing RB’s all season; with Oregon starting RB CJ Verdell still out and backup Travis Dye showing mixed results, I trust the Utah defense to hold the Ducks run game largely at bay. Still, Brown has the physicality as a runner where I do think he’ll be able to move the chains on 3rd and short, which only helps our case for the Under. Utah’s offense has made the most of major matchup advantages throughout the course of the season(see the Stanford game), but when matching up with a physical and complete defense like Oregon, I’m not willing to trust them. QB Cameron Rising might be protected by an elite OL, but Oregon specializes in their pass rush led by future top-5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks are solid in the second and third levels as well, and while Utes RB Tavion Thomas emerged with a breakout campaign, the Ducks held him to a respectable 21 carries/94 yards in their first matchup. Much like Brown, Rising(7.7 Y/A) isn’t going to be chucking the ball too much vertically; even if he wanted to, the Ducks secondary matches up well with a somewhat weak Utah WR core. 58 points was far too many when these teams first met, and the same remains true here in a championship environment. I like the Under a lot.
*CFB(1.5u): Alabama/Georgia UNDER 49.5(-110)–Sat. 3 PM CT
Georgia is unequivocally the top team in the country after steamrolling through their SEC schedule this season; they won their SEC games by an average of 32 PPG. They are allowing just 7 PPG(far and away the best in the country) and have only allowed more than 13 points once this season. In most years, Alabama would be set up to challenge this Georgia defense for the full 60 minutes, but this is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams. The Tide have major issues at both OL and RB, as evidence in last week’s narrow win at Auburn. Bryce Young was sacked 7 times this week, but that’s not a new problem for the Tide; he was sacked 4 times against Arkansas, LSU, and Texas A&M this season as well. RB Brian Robinson Jr. is questionable for this game, but even so, he’s been less than impressive this season(4.9 YPC) and seen regression over the past 4 games. The Tide are very thin at that position, with Trey Sanders(4.4 YPC) being the only other valid option in this matchup. You have to account for WR Jameson Williams getting some production and Bryce Young managing the game well, but this version of Alabama does not match up well with an elite defense like Georgia. However, I do think the Tide are pretty strong defensively this season, particularly against the run. Because Georgia’s defense has been so dominant, the Bulldog offense has found themselves in some advantageous positions throughout the season. Even so, because Alabama should at least be able to get into Georgia territory some throughout this game, I think Georgia’s going to have to sustain some long drives in order to pull away in this game. QB Stetson Bennett is loaded with talent around him, but I haven’t forgotten how shellshocked he looked in last year’s game against Alabama. I think the Tide will force the ‘Dogs into some obvious passing situations, which is not an area where Georgia has found themselves at all this season. I expect Georgia to pull away in this one at some point, but this high of a total is silly given how good Georgia’s defense has been this season. I’ll call it a 27-13 Georgia win and a comfortable winner on the Under.
*CFB(1.5u): Pitt -3(-115) vs Wake Forest–Sat. 7 PM CT
Wake Forest started out the season 8-0 because they played an incredibly weak schedule, but after playing better competition in the month of November, the Demon Deacons revealed their true colors. While they went 2-2 down the stretch of the season, the defense allowed an average of 49 PPG against North Carolina, NC State, and Clemson. Last week, they absolutely drubbed Boston College by a score of 41-10. However, when you look deeper, BC QB Phil Jurkovec went 3/11 for 19 yards through the air because he was playing at less than 50%. When Wake Forest has played the better offenses in the ACC, they’ve been completely exposed. Pitt falls right in line as one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. QB Kenny Pickett has had a Heisman-caliber season, throwing for 40 TD’s while completing 68% of his passes. With a Y/A at 8.8, Pickett has proven his ability to pick apart defenses. As Pickett has continued to torch defenses, the Panther running game has really opened up, improving drastically throughout the stretch of the season. Wake struggles most with the run, and I feel very confident that they won’t handle Pickett well either. Despite all of this, Wake Forest has put themselves in this position because they too have a prolific offense; like Pitt, they’re averaging nearly 43 PPG this season. However, much of QB Sam Hartman’s success came earlier in the season; in his last 4 games, he has yet to eclipse more than 8 Y/A in a game. Additionally, the senior QB is completing just 60% of his passes on the season and has also thrown 10 INT’s. With nothing special to add in the run game, Wake Forest’s destiny will fall squarely on Hartman’s shoulders. Pittsburgh has sputtered somewhat in these kind of matches this season, but this Panthers defense is very solid up front and has a knack for creating takeaways. Hartman would need to play his best game of the year for Wake to pull this off, and I just don’t see that happening. Give me Pitt -3 as a 1.5u play.
*CFB 3 Team, 10 pt Teaser(1u): Oregon +12.5 vs Utah, Cincinnati -0.5 vs Houston, Georgia +4 vs Alabama(-130)–Fri. 7 PM CT
Oregon and Georgia are explained in the write-ups above. As for Cincinnati, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game given how far they’ve come. If Houston had any semblance of a strong running game, I might be inclined to lay off here. However, without any ability to establish the run, I think UH QB Clayton Tune is going to have a hard time maneuvering around an elite Cincinnati defense. Desmond Ridder is playing his best football of the season over the past month, and he will do just enough to send Cincinnati to the CFP.
*CFB(1u): App State/Louisiana UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
These teams matched up earlier in the season with Louisiana pulling away with a 41-13 win. That score is not at all reflective of how these teams match up; for reference, App State is a 3-point road favorite in this game. Louisiana has been largely unimpressive this season and have found ways to squeak by inferior opponents week after week, but what allowed them to blow out App State was their ability to run the football. Since that loss, App State has made the proper adjustments defensively; in their past 4 games, the Mountaineers have allowed just 7.7 PPG with an emphasis on stopping the run. Louisiana QB Levi Lewis is throwing for just 7.4 Y/A this season and isn’t all that efficient, so if App State can continue to stop the run, they should be in good shape. With that said, there is no way I can trust App State QB Chase Brice in this crucial of a game. The former Clemson and Duke QB has a reputation for turning the football over at the least opportune times, and even against Sun Belt competition this season, he has thrown 10 INT’s. Going up against a Louisiana defense that is yielding just 18.5 PPG, I think the Mountaineers will be largely held at bay. Any total at 51 or up is worth a play on the Under for me.
Lean, Clippers +1.5 (still so low on this LAL team, LAC is due a win)
P.S. – this would actually be a better game to take Valanciunas props, again, and lord knows I love playing on this guy. But lord also knows I’m cautious now that he’s let me down 2 times in a row. This is a better spot, though.
