Happy Saturday all! We are back with 2 free premium play for you for today, 1 CFB, 1 CBB! We are 28-14 in our last 42 CFB plays and are off to a 11-6 start in CBB to begin the season! Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
The top spot in the West Division of Conference USA is on the line in the Lone Star State on Saturday afternoon. The UAB Blazers are on the road as they head west to face the #22 UTSA Roadrunners . UAB comes in with a 7-3 record and off a 21-14 road upset of Marshall while UTSA is a perfect 10-0 after beating Southern Miss 27-17 at home last Saturday. The Blazers have won four of the five previous meetings between the schools, including a 21-13 home win in the most recent matchup on October 3, 2020. UAB’s offense is averaging 381 yards per game on 6.2 yards per play and are scoring 28 points per game while the Roadrunners are putting up 38.6 points on 446 yards per game at a clip of 6.2 yards per play. UAB prefers a slow paced game as they rank 126th in tempo and relies on their running game heavily by rushing on 63.9% of their plays. UTSA likes to speed it up ranking 46th in the nation in tempo and also runs the ball more than they throw at just over 56%. This should be a fun one as both teams come in with big play potential. UAB has the 3rd most plays of 30 yards or more (34) and UTSA ranks 33rd with 25 big plays. I realize that the Blazers don’t pass often, but when they do, they have the edge in the game. UAB is averaging 9.7 yards per pass and they will be up against a beatable UTSA secondary who gives up 7.8 yards per pass. The Blazer’s win this ballgame if they can sustain the run to set up the pass and continue with their big plays down the field. Take UAB +5
The #20 North Carolina Tar Heels and #7 Purdue Boilermakers meet this afternoon at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET. The Tar Heels have won all three of their games to date but haven’t really faced anybody of note so far. UNC topped Loyola-Maryland by 16, Brown by seven and won at Charleston by 11. They failed to cover in all three outings. The Boilermakers haven’t really faced high-caliber competition, either, but they have won all three of its games by 25 or more points against Bellarmine, Indiana State and Wright State. The Tar Heels are scoring 90.3 points per game and shooting 52.8% from the floor, however on defense, they are allowing more points than the opposition is averaging by 1 point, 2% from the floor and 3% more from beyond the arc. This will be a huge jump up in class for new head coach Hubert Davis and his UNC squad. Purdue enters the contest shooting 51.9% from the field, 41.7 from 3 and are scoring 94.7 points per game but the edge for the Boilermakers will come on the defensive side as they are limiting offenses to 62 points per game, 36.8% from the field and 26.1% from beyond the arc. According to KenPom, the Boilermakers rank 2nd in the nation is adjusted offensive efficiency and their defense is ranked 19th in adjusted efficiency. Purdue’s offense should be able to put up points against UNC’s 108th ranked adjusted defensive efficiency and although the Tar Heels have a top 20 offense, the Purdue defense should be able to limit them. Take Purdue -6.5
Sadly one of the most interesting matchups of the day can only be seen on ESPN+ at 2:30 pm today. The matchup between these two teams will essentially determine who wins the C-USA West division which UAB has owned. If UTSA wins, it’ll be their first trip to the C-USA championship and if UAB wins, it’s another victory for a program that almost was abandoned in 2015.
Last week, the score was misleading in UTSA’s win over Southern Miss as they had a late score to make that win look convincing. It wasn’t. Nonetheless, their defense kept them in that game and I expect their defense to play well again. The Roadrunners have the 6th rated rush defense and that’s the only real success UAB has had offensively.
The Blazers have shown the ability to get their pass game going and have showed out well in their last few road games, so the Blazers should cover this one. I’m heavier on the total. UTSA’s latest struggles, strength on defense and the Blazers ability to produce turnovers and slow down the pace with their run game… Hard to take in C-USA games but I’m on the UNDER 53.5 on this one…
We’re over the halfway point of the NFL season and this is where things get realllllyyy interesting before the playoffs. Steve and I are an illustrious 33-16-1 in Circa – let’s see if we can keep that train rolling this weekend! Don’t miss our official Circa plays post tomorrow morning. For now, here’s my favorite pick of the week!
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NFL Circa Plays: 33-16-1
NFL ATS Plays: 67-70
NBA ATS Plays: 55-42 (57%), +18 units
Colts/Bills under 49.5 (-115), 2 units: This is a VERY interesting game Sunday between two AFC contenders. The Bills are obviously the more publicly embraced team, heading into this year with high hopes and Super Bowl aspirations. They’ve stumbled in recent weeks but now they’re primed and ready to host the ascending Colts in Buffalo. The Colts started off a lot colder than many of us thought they would. Of course injuries to Carson Wentz, TY Hilton and other key players stifled an already shallow offense at the start of the year, but their defense has been keeping Indy in games. That hasn’t changed since they started improving on both sides of the ball. The Colts are mid-tier this year in points allowed and other standard defensive metrics, but they excel at taking away the ball and not turning it over themselves. That’s something Wentz has clearly worked on and as he settles in to Frank Reich’s system, a system he absolutely preferred in his years prior playing for Philly, Wentz is gaining confidence and making the throws that matter.
One area where the Colts defense needs to improve and improve fast is in the 4th quarter. Overall on the year they have a plus point differential, but in the 4th quarter they’re really letting teams have their way. Indianapolis is allowing 9.6 ppg in the 4th, compared to only 4.9, 5, and 2.6 ppg in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters. That’s not a good metric against a Bills team that loves to score their points at the end of halves (they average 8 ppg and 7.8 ppg in the 2nd and 4th quarters). The Colts’ defense needs to lock down and put forth full effort for an entire 60 minutes on Sunday. The Bills don’t need any help getting to the end-zone and if the Colts relent, the results won’t be favorable for the away team.
The Bills looked like their old selves in Week 10, shutting down the Jets on both sides of the ball and overwhelming them with the potent offense we expect. What most people aren’t talking about is how good they are on defense this year. The Bills lead the NFL in atonof defensive categories. Here’s just a few of them:
Points allowed per game
Yards allowed per game
Yard allowed per play
Opponent 3rd down conversion %
Opponent TDs per game
Opponent yards per pass
Turnover margin per game
And they’re top 5 in a bunch of other categories, too. This is a Bills team that should not be taken lightly on either side of the ball, and it’s reasonable to assume that Wentz and the improving Colts offense could easily come to an abrupt halt in this contest.
Lastly, the weather favors an under, too. The game-time forecast says we’ll see cold rain showers with 13-14 mph winds and crisp temperatures of 44-48 degrees. With an improving defense for Indy and arguably the best defense in the NFL geared up for a big AFC matchup in the blustery, tough conditions of Orchard Park, I can only bet on the under.
This game is interesting being that both teams are in trouble. These programs have 6 losses and have to win out to make a bowl game. I think that you will see some serious motivation here. Most of the time people think defense in this situation and that is why this line is so small, but it’s a bit too hard for me to get so low here. The Longhorns give up 32.5 points per game while the Mountaineers are at 24. Both defenses are in the bottom 89 in yards per play. This is in a big 12 conference that for some reason has some weaker offenses this year with apologies to Baylor. Texas at least is putting up 37.5 points per game at 6.44 yards per play. Texas, even with Bijan Robinson out, should be able to move the ball. West Virginia averages 25.7 points per game and 5.47 yards per play against a Texas defense that just gave up 57 points to Kansas and ranks 94th in success rate. I think this total is a bit too low for this game and I’ll grab the over.
Over 56.5 – 3 stars
Syracuse vs NC State -11.5 O/U 50.5
This is your classic overreaction and spot play handicap. Syracuse is coming off of a blow out loss at Louisville. They couldn’t get anything done this game but at least they played close games vs the best teams in the conference vs Clemson and Wake Forest only losing by 3 points and beat Virginia Tech and Boston College outright. NC State is coming off of a tough game vs Wake Forest but the game wasn’t only tough, it pretty much took them out of ACC contention unless Clemson beats Wake Forest this week and Wake loses their final game at Boston College which isn’t likely. Either way, I do not have Syracuse as that bad of a team this year and this number is wrong. Cuse is the much better rushing team at 5.5 yards per attempt to NC State’s 4.2. The Orange also has a nice positive .9 yards per play while NC State barley edges them out at +1.2. That is pretty close if you ask me. Syracuse is playing for a bowl game here being stuck with only 5 wins with Pittsburgh on deck afterword’s while NC State is playing the wait and see game. Take the Orange plus the points.
Syracuse +11.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech +10.5 O/U 56.5
How ugly do you want to get? Well, if you do some research in this game, it becomes not so ugly after all. Since the Red Raiders lost Tyler Shough, they have struggled at quarterback and had some bad losses but I think that they may have found something last week in Freshman Donovan Smith. He threw the ball quite well hitting 22 out of 35 passes at 322 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception against a tough Iowa State defense. I know that this team has a new football coach coming in for next year in Lubbuck, but I think that the players are playing hard for interim coach Sonny Cumbie. Now my power ratings has Oklahoma State winning by 7.75 points but we must not forget that the Pokes have Oklahoma on deck in a massive look ahead spot. Oklahoma State only has a .4 net yard per play advantage over Texas Tech and Tech has the more explosive offense. I am going to roll with the big home dog here and I think they could win this one outright.
Saturday the release of the highest Rated 7* College Football Game Of the Year headlines and is backed with a 100% Long term system. There is a Powerful 4 game Football card up and we also have a 6* Rare NBA Play and College Hoops. Comp Play below.
The Comp play today is on Syracuse plus the 11-12 points at 4:00 eastern. This game fits a game 11 specific System that pertains to dogs of more than 5 like Syracuse of they are taking on a team that has won 6 or more and lost more than 2 that are off a loss. These dogs have covered over 90% long term. NC. St has failed to cover 4 of 5 when laying more than 10 at home, they have failed to cover 9 of 12 in November games and 6 of 8 after scoring 40 or more. Syracuse has covered 6 straight off a loss, 7 of 8 in conference and 5 of 6 as a dog. In the series the dog has covered 6 of 8. Look for the Orange to cover. On Saturday we have our 20221 7* College Football Game of the Year headlining a big 4 game football card. There is a huge 6* Top Rated NBA Play with a 12-0 System and College hoops. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as there are plays going from noon to midnight. For the Comp play we will go with Syracuse +11 to 12 points. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We have another massive slate of NHL games on tap for today. There was originally 13 games scheduled to take place but, with Ottawa’s ongoing COVID-19 issues, only 12 are taking place. The biggest game of the night is the Minnesota Wild vs the Florida Panthers in a battle between first place teams.
Detroit Red Wings @ Arizona Coyotes
Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Detroit Red Wings: 8-9-2, 4th Atlantic (3-7 Away)
Arizona Coyotes: 2-13-2, 8th Central (1-4-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Detroit Red Wings
-120
-140
-1.5 (+155)
o5.5 (+100)
Arizona Coyotes
+100
+120
+1.5 (-175)
u5.5 (-120)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit’s last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona’s last 10 games.
The Detroit Red Wings had a hot start to the season but, have regressed due to a 1-4 skid. They’ve lost their last three games being outscored 15-7. However, they face a struggling Coyotes team tonight where they look to turn things around. Arizona currently has the worst record in the league with just 6 points through 17 games.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings offense hasn’t been great this year with the third worst goals for above expected (-8.67). The good news for them is that they are generating a ton of chances with a 42.67 expected goals for. They also lead the league with 50 high danger shots for which is an encouraging sign. If they can take advantage of these scoring opportunities they should be able to get back on track. Lucas Raymond leads the team with 18 points through 19 games followed by Bertuzzi (17) and Larkin (15).
On the other side of the puck, Detroit has struggled causing most of their woes. They have a +2.47 goals against above expected meaning they are allowing more goals than the analytics have predicted. They’re 5th worst in the league in goals against per 60 with 2.76. Looking at the positives, they have only given up 25 high danger shots against. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to get the start for them after being traded by Carolina last year. He hasn’t been as great as he was last year with a -0.4 GSAx compared to the previous year of +9.6. Nedeljkovic relieved Thomas Greiss last game, who was pulled after two periods. He would go on to stop 9 of the 10 shots he faced in the third period.
Arizona Coyotes
The Yotes offense has been non existent to put it blatantly. They’re third to last in the league, averaging a measly 1.65 goals for per 60. They average the lowest number of shots on goal per game with 25.2. Arizona’s issues stem from the lack of chances created with just 17 high danger shots for. If Arizona was failing to capitalize on scoring chances it would be one thing but, they’re failing to generate any, which is even more concerning. Shayne Gostisbehere, a defenseman, leads the team in points with 13 through 17 games.
Arizona’s defense ranks worse than their offense which says something. They are currently giving up the most goals per game averaging 3.82 and have the 8th worst goals against per 60 (2.73). The Coyotes also have one of the leagues worst goals against above expected with a +6.27. The one encouraging sign for this defense is that have only allowed 21 high danger shots against. Scott Wedgewood is expected to get the start tonight. The Arizona Coyotes claimed the 29-year-old goaltender off waivers from the New Jersey Devils earlier this month. He has a +2.7 GSAx on the year and has been decent for the Coyotes in this first three starts despite the misleading record of 1-1-1.
PICK: DETROIT RED WINGS (-140)
PICK: UNDER 5.5 (-120)
In a battle between these two weak teams, the Red Wings have at least some analytics backing them. If they can find a way to take advantage of the chances they’re generating on offense they should get back on track. The Coyotes have one of, if not the worst defenses in the league which should benefit Detroit. The Under is in play due to the Coyotes lack of offense. They struggle to score on 5 on 5 situations and on the man advantage. I’m guessing a 3-1 win here for Detroit.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
The NYRA circuit is now onto Aqueduct Race Course for the Fall/ Winter meet. The racing season dies down a bit during the next few months so there won’t be as many “big” races. However, we do have one Grade II Stakes this week with the Red Smith Stakes taking place. This is the final graded turf stakes of the New York season for males. Check out my preview and picks below:
Red Smith Stakes
Race Information:
Track: Aqueduct (Queens, NY)
Event Grade: Grade II
Race: 9
Post Time: 3:43 PM
Length: 1 3/8 Furlongs
Purse: $200,000
Division: Open | 3 Years Old & Upward
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
PP
HORSE
JOCKEY
TRAINER
WGT
M/L
1
Tide of the Sea
Luis Saez
Michael Maker
126
15-1
2
Value Engineering
Dylan Davis
Chad Brown
122
8-1
3
Soldier Rising (GB)
Jose L Ortiz
Christophe Clement
118
5-1
4
Serve the King (GB)
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Chad Brown
124
3-1
5
Shamrocket
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
124
6-1
6
Corelli
Manuel Franco
Jonathan Thomas
126
12-1
7
Channel Cat
John R. Velazquez
Jack Sisterson
126
4-1
8
Sanctuary City
Ruben Silvera
James Ferraro
122
20-1
9
No Word
Jose Lezcano
Todd Pletcher
122
8-1
10
Price Talk
Eric Cancel
Anthony Dutrow
122
8-1
Horse Preview:
(1) Tide of the Sea, a 5 year old Colt and son of English Channel has not had the same same success as his father did. He’s had 9 starts this year, competing in four G2 Stakes Races, failing to win any. His two wins this year came in the G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes and Japan Turf Cup Stakes. He got out to a lead early in his last race but, failed to close as he looked tired. In that race he was only coming off a few weeks of rest and will have a similar recovery period here which isn’t an encouraging sign.
(2) Value Engineering, a 5 year old Colt and son of Lemon Drop Kid has been in the money in all four of his starts this year (4-1-0-3). All four of those races have been Allowance Optional Claiming (AoC) races. He’s had some good speed figures in those races but, will lengthen out a bit here against some tougher competition. This will be his first Graded Stakes race so we’ll see how he handles the step up.
(3) Soldier Rising, a 3 year old Gelding has made the switch to the US Racing circuit earlier this year. He has raced six times this year, three times in Europe and three in the US. His first race in the States was back in August at Saratoga where he finished 2nd in the G1 Saratoga Derby. After that he finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Derby Inv. Stakes, and 5th in the G2 Hill Price Stakes. He struggled in the G2 Hill Prince Stakes getting forced wide after going off as the heavy favorite.
(4) Serve the King, a 5 year old Colt is the morning line favorite in this race at 3-1. This Colt has raced four times this year coming off a 2nd Place finish in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes. Out of those four races, his only win comes back August in the John’s Call Stakes at Saratoga. He’s used to longer distances on the Turf so he sets up well for this race given his past performances. Another thing to note is that his speed figures have significantly improved in his last two races which is encouraging.
(5) Shamrocket, a 4 year old Colt and son of Tonalist, has had 10 starts this year. He’s coming off a win in his last start in the Point of Entry Stakes at a similar distance. His other starts this year are highlighted by a 3rd place finish in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes and a 4th place finish in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. Those have been the only two graded stakes races he’s entered so we’ll see if he can get his first win here.
(6) Corelli, a 6 year old Colt and son of Point of Entry has had six starts on the year. His best win comes back in August at Woodbine in the G3 Singspiel Stakes. He’s tried his luck in three other G3 Stakes but has failed to finish better than third. Corelli also entered in the G1 Pattison Canadian International Stakes in September but, finished 6th. He’s coming off a 4th place finish in the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran a 104 speed figure. I’m not sure how he’ll do here given his age and the class of horse’s he’s up against.
(7) Channel Cat, a 6 year old Colt and son of English Channel as well, has over a million dollars in career earnings. This 6 year old Colt is a big race horse competing in Graded Stakes races his last 17 starts. He’s gone winless in his last three starts with his last victory coming back on May 8th in the G1 Man o’ War Stakes. This Colt has struggled as of late not getting great trips but has still had solid speed figures in those races. He’s not in great form so we’ll see if he can grab a win here.
(8) Sanctuary City, a 4 year old Colt is a horse I really just don’t see competing here given the strength of the field. His only two wins this year come in AoC’s as he hasn’t much success in the G3 Stakes he’s entered. For me this horse is a toss.
(9) No Word, a 4 year old Colt, is another horse that I think won’t have much of an impact on this race. He’s not a front runner so he won’t have an impact on the pace and will struggle to compete down the stretch. Two races ago, he finished 2nd in the G2 Bernard Baruch Handicap which is a bit misleading as it was only a four horse field. His most recent race was the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes where he ran 6th behind Corelli.
(10) Price Talk, another 4 year old Colt is the son of Kitten’s Joy has some impressive pedigree. This will be his first Graded Stakes test after winning back to back races. This horse looks to be in great form but will be tested here. Another thing to note is that he’s coming off a two month layoff which could affect him. He’ll also lengthen out a it from his last two races but, will be well rested. This horse is certainly a factor given his form and recent speed figures.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Tide of the Sea, Channel Cat
Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Value Engineering, Serve the King, Sanctuary City, No Word
This horse is in great form and is taking a class drop here so it’s hard tp stay away from the favorite. I’m hoping he stays around the 3-1 range before post time but it’s unlikely. Irad Ortiz stays on the irons after having two successful trips prior.
EXACTA: 4 / 2, 3, 10
Value Engineering has been in great form as of late with the only knock against him being his lack of experience. I’m not sure he’ll have enough to win this race but should be competitive. Soldier Rising is another horse that merits strong consideration with the drop in class. While he did struggle his last time out he seems to be stretching out to a more favorable distance here. Price Talk, like Value Engineering, doesn’t have the experience in grades stakes but has had impressive wins in his last two starts.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Made a nice recovery on college basketball after a rough start to the week. 9-10-1 overall on the season. 5 Total plays for me today. 2 Free picks here and 3 plays available to premium subscribers at Theoddsbreakers.com. Let’s get to the analysis.
Towson vs Pittsburgh (-6.5) O/U 132.5
Towson visits Pittsburgh on Friday evening boasting a 2-1 record coming off a 24 points win against Hampton. Prior to that they dropped an eight point decision to Monmouth and opened with a 21 point win against Albany. Pittsburgh is 1-2 to start the season and are also coming off a win, and 8 point victory over UNCW. They lost their first two games, by 15 points to West Virginia and 15 to The Citadel
Towson labored through multiple COVID stoppages last season on their way to a 4-14 campaign. They return three starters, but It’s almost an entirely new team with 7 new faces this year. Four transfers are featured in the new rotation including three players who averaged over 10 ppg for their previous team. The best of which so far has been Cam Holden a UT-Martin transfer averaging 14.3 PPG and 10.7 RPG to start the season.
Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly been sharp to begin the year. They return 4 starters from a team that went 10-12 last season. They have been trying to push the ball inside for close looks and hoping to get to the free throw line. To that end they have had some success, but it has come at a price as they only shot four 3 point field goals their last game. They are shooting 45% from the field (22.2% from distance) and while they have gotten to they line they have not taken advantage shooting 53.2% so far. 6’9″ 280Lb Sophmore Forward John Hugley is leading the way with 19 points per game and he should have success against a small Towson interior.
I see this as a game where Pittsburgh controls the glass and keeps Towson off the score sheet very similar to how their last match-up went with UNCW. The Panthers defense is the difference here. Gimme Pitt -6.5 for 1.5 Units
Ohio vs Kentucky (-12.5) O/U 150
The Ohio Bobcats visit Rupp Arena tonight to on the Kentucky Wildcats. The Bobcats come into the game with a 3-0 record with all three wins coming by double digits against Robert Morris, Cleveland State and Belmont. Kentucky is 2-1 with a season opening loss to Duke and 2 blowout wins against Robert Morris and Mt. St. Mary’s. Very unusual to have a common opponent this early in the season, but it does provide some insights.
Last year Ohio went 17-7 and was a No. 13 seed in the tourney. They lost star guard Jason Preston to the NBA, but return four experienced starters. Ohio comes into the game putting up 81.3 PPG at 44.5% from the field including an average of 12 3-Point FGs per game (38.3% from distance) They Bobcats go 6’5″, 6’8″, 6’8″ across the front line, but have rebounded the ball well so far with just over 11 Offensive boards per game. Sophomore guard Mark Sears leads thew scoring at 19.3 PPG in the early season.
John Calipari and the Wildcats look to retool after an awful 9-16 campaign last year. They have brought in their usual crop of talented freshman, but Coach Cal has also dipped into the transfer market this year to solidify some weaknesses. Kentucky has played well since the loss to Duke and are averaging 83.7 PPG in the early going. They are shooting 48.8% from the floor and 45.1% from distance. Junior Forward Oscar Tshiebwe a transfer from West Virginia leads the team in scoring at 18.7 PPG.
I’ll take a look at common opponent Robert Morris quick, but dont read too much into it as its always really about the matchup during the game youre looking at for me. Ohio took an 8 point lead into halftime and never looked back as it never got closer than 7 in the second half. This was their worst game from distance at 8 for 24, but they dominated on the offensive glass and only had 10 turnovers which lead to 14 more Field Goal attempts than Robert Morris. They won 85-71. Kentucky dominated the entire game against RMU winning by 40 points 100-60. They shot 57.1% (52.2% from distance) and out rebounded RMU 43-24.
Kentucky for the most part has been playing small, fast lineups, but I think they’ll go a little bigger tonight and we will see more of Freshman Forward Daimion Collins. They will try and out muscle the Bobcats on the inside and I see them being able to do so. Combine that with their talent edge at guard and I can see them running away in this one. I like the Wildcats to score and score often.
Entering Week 12, my CFB record sits at 81-60-1(57%), +28.8u this season. In addition these 4 free plays, I have reserved 7 plays for my premium members. Premium plays have hit at a 68% clip(69-32-1) and netted my members +51.45u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Illinois/Iowa UNDER 38.5(-110)–Sat. 1 PM CT
We lost our bet on the Iowa/Minnesota Under last week at a similar number, but I’m not hesitating to go right back to the well this week. Illinois has seen each of their last 7 games stay under this 38.5 number. The Illini are about as vanilla of an offense you’ll see in CFB; given Iowa’s success at forcing INT’s this season, Bret Bielema might not ask QB Brandon Peters to throw more than a few times the whole game. While Iowa is almost guaranteed to hold Illinois’s offense in check, the Hawkeyes offense has some questions entering this game. QB Spencer Petras didn’t play last week due to injury; backup Alex Padilla is less efficient but provides more explosiveness through the air(which, relatively speaking, still isn’t very much). Kirk Ferentz doesn’t seem in much of a rush to insert Petras back in, but either way, I’m not sure how much of a difference it makes. The Hawkeyes are averaging just 24 PPG this season, and even then, the defense has fueled a lot of those points. RB Tyler Goodson has been a disappointment in the run game(4.3 YPC), and given the Illini feature a very good LB group, I don’t see that changing this week. Illinois is allowing just 17.5 PPG in Big10 play, and given their current form, I trust them in this matchup. I understand that it’s hard to take an Under at this low of a total, but it is the right way to go.
*CFB(1u): Baylor/Kansas State UNDER 50(-110)–Sat. 4:30 PM CT
I’m a broken record at this point with my promotion of Kansas State Under’s, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Wildcats run the fewest plays/game in all of CFB, but even better, Baylor runs just 64.9 plays/game themselves, good for 119th out of 130 FBS teams. In other words, possessions in this game will be few and far in between. Given what each of these teams have shown defensively, I’m not expecting much offensive efficiency either. Baylor’s defense looked dominant against Oklahoma last week, yielding just 260 total yards and recording 5 sacks. The Bears defense has been great against the run all season, and I think they’ll be able to hold K-State RB Deuce Vaughn in check. K-State QB Skylar Thompson has had a great season, but he’s much more effective in a “game manager” role; if Vaughn is held in check, Thompson will be forced into some unfamiliar territory. Baylor’s offense has taken a step forward this season due to their run game; RB Abram Smith is averaging 144 yards/game over his past 4 games. However, QB Gerry Bohanon will need to make the necessary throws. Bohannon has good overall numbers this season, but his play has slipped in recent weeks(6 INT’s in last 4 games). Going up against what I would consider the best CB duo in the Big12, Baylor might play things more conservatively and try to avoid mistakes in this one. In any case, this Under has too much value for me to pass up.
*CFB(1u): Virginia Tech +7.5(-110) @ Miami–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
A lot will be made of Justin Fuente’s firing as justification for laying the points with Miami in this one, but I actually think the opposite could be true. We’ve seen teams band together after losing their HC this season, and the Hokies’ interim HC seems to be commanding more respect from the players than Fuente ever did. Additionally, that is a mute point considering Miami HC Manny Diaz is likely on the way out(the noise in Coral Gables has picked up quite a bit this week). Regardless, Miami is simply an overvalued commodity. QB Tyler Van Dyke had an unreal 3-4 game stretch, but as expected, he came back down to earth last week in a loss at Florida State. The Hurricanes often fail to establish the run and put a lot of pressure on Van Dyke to come through. If a heroic performance is required for your team to win, I’m going to play against you. Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister is a horrible passer and has limited options to work with on the outside, but he does provide value in the run game. Miami is soft defensively and can easily be run all over by this Hokie offense. While it did come against Duke, the 48 point performance by VT last week gives me a sliver of hope that they’ve turned a corner. This is simply many points to give Virginia Tech and a miscalculation of how the coaching dynamics affect this game; give me the points.
*CFB(0.6u): Navy ML(+165) vs East Carolina–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
This could come back to blow up in my face, but I think this play is worth a shot. East Carolina is a veteran-laden team who won their 6th game of the season last week, qualifying ECU for their first bowl game in 7 seasons. Navy’s triple option offense requires a great week of practice in order to manage the unique style of play; there’s a chance that the “hangover” effect could be present in this matchup. Additionally, East Carolina hosts Cincinnati next week in their final home game of the season; given the Senior Day implications and opponent, I infer that the Pirates are probably looking ahead to that matchup and not paying an opponent like Navy the respect they deserve. The Midshipmen are just 2-7 this season, but they have played SMU, Houston, and Cincinnati to 1 score games and are plenty capable of stepping up to the plate on their Senior Day. I don’t stick to strictly motivational angles very often in football, but I thought this one was worth sharing.
