The early NBA Season has gone well so far, hitting at nearly 60% over the last 3 weeks. We all know it’s a long 82 game stretch and we’ll experience plenty of variance, both from these teams and from our own angles. Happy to have you all here for the ride!
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MLB Season: 231-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 57-54, +7.2 units
NFL Circa Picks: 32-17-1 NBA 21/22 Season: 37-26 (59%), +15.64 units
Bucks/Knicks over 215.5 (-110), 2 units: The Bucks travel to Madison Square Garden on less than a day’s rest after overcoming the depleted 76ers last night. It was a good all-around game for Giannis (shocking, right?) and it was a solid performance from Bobby Portis, who’s working his way back into the rotation and looked like his energetic self in Philly. Jrue Holiday, who’s also adjusting to the regular season after only playing 5 games, didn’t have as brilliant a night. The stud point guard will improve as the season wanes on, but for now it’s promising news that a banged-up Bucks roster can still hold their own in spots they should win. Grayson Allen’s 25 points on 8-13 hasn’t gone unnoticed either– he’s been a great contributor in the early parts of this season. Although Milwaukee has experienced some early woes and challenges, this is still a deep, capable roster.
When a team plays a back-to-back, especially a team as injury-plagued as the Bucks, you might assume that it will result in a lethargic, slow-paced effort on the night following game one. While that’s sometimes true, from the data we’ve collected, game totals can just as easily be inflated due to a lack of defensive effort. While that’s a tough thing to measure, “effort,” sometimes a simple “eye test” just tells us this is true. The Bucks will continue to be without rim-protector Brook Lopez, and while we wish Khris Middleton was back, this team showed it can still produce plenty of offense against a stingy 76ers lineup last night. Expect the Bucks to look like a heavyweight contender again soon.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have flipped their persona over the last 3 weeks. New York comes into this game ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and ranked 22nd in points allowed per game– not exactly reminiscent of last year’s blue-collar, gritty defense that we’ve come to know. New additions Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier have surely helped– they’ve significantly increased the amount of 3s attempted and the amount of 3s made for New York per game– and Derrick Rose coming off the bench doesn’t hurt, either. Typically I prepare for regression in a case like this, and I’m sure their defense will improve, but the Knicks are currently top 10 in effective field goal percentage, top 10 in possessions, and 3rd in points per game. For now, this is a team built more around efficient offense.
So far NBA totals are considerably down from what we saw in last year’s regular season, and the market is attempting to adjust. There’s a number of reasons for this– there’s always more than one reason– but when we feel the number drops too low, it’s time to take advantage. The spot, the averages, and the ability of these two offenses has my number closer to 220. For that reason, this is an auto-bet on the over!
Tough start to the week with terrible goalie play hurting us on Monday and Tuesday. There’s only three games happening in the NHL tonight so selection is fairly limited. The main matchup for the night is the Maples Leafs vs the Flyers.
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: NHL Network
Toronto Maple Leafs: 7-5-1, 4th Atlantic (1-3 Away)
Philadelphia Flyers: 6-2-2, 4th Metropolitan (3-1-1 Home)
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Toronto Maple Leafs
-135
-125
-1.5 (+180)
o6.0 (-105)
Philadelphia Flyers
+125
+115
+1.5 (-210)
u6.0 (-115)
The Toronto Maple Leafs head to Philadelphia winning six of their last seven games. After a slow start to the season, the Maple Leafs believed they had turned it around. However, on Monday, they got blown out by the Los Angeles Kings, 5-1, as a massive favorite. To be fair, the Kings are one of the hottest teams in the NHL but, the performance by Jack Campbell has created some cause for concern.
Toronto’s offense hasn’t seemed to have found their groove yet. They currently rank 26th in the NHL averaging just 2.54 goals per game. The Leafs have the same issues every year and this year is no different. Toronto’s roster is so top heavy that Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander need to score so much to make up for the lack of production from the bottom half of the lineup. Having said all that, the biggest issue for the Leafs right now is the inability to convert on scoring chances. Toronto has an expected goals for of 35.16, which leads the league, but only has 21 actual goals for.
The Leafs defense has been middle of the road this year, giving up the 15th most goals allowed per game (2.85). They have also been solid on the Penalty Kill which averages 8th in the league. Jack Campbell is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight. He has a 6-3-1 record, 2.09 GAA, .929 SV%, and a +6.3 GSAx. Campbell has played well for them and is the main reason that the Leafs don’t have a worse record given their lack of offensive production.
The Philadelphia Flyers have had a great start to the season going 6-2-2 in their first 10 games. The Flyers are led by none other than Claude Giroux on offense with 12 points. Cam Atkinson, who was traded to Philadelphia last year, has seemed to fit in nicely with 8 points though their first 10 games. Unlike Toronto, the Flyers are getting scoring from all over the roster as they average 3.2 goals per game (11th).
After a disappointing season last year by Carter Hart, he has been great this year with a +6.0 GSAx. Through Hart’s play, the Flyers are allowing an average of just 2.4 goals against per game which is good enough for 4th in the NHL. One issue that will need to be addressed on defense if they want to continue to win, is limiting high-danger scoring changes. The Flyers are currently the 5th worst team and preventing those chances.
PICK: PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (+115)
(Confirm Carter Hart is still starting for Philadelphia before placing your wager)
This game is a pick ’em according to everything I see. Philadelphia should be able to generate plenty of scoring changes against the Leafs. While Toronto should struggle to as they face one of the best defenses in the league. As previously mentioned, Philly does give up a lot of high danger chances but, Toronto has one of the worst conversion rates in the league. This won’t be an easy game for either side but given the Flyers start to the season and improvement in Hart’s play, I like them at home. Toronto has also struggled on the road this year going just 1-3.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Viktor Hovland repeats as champion at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba. He becomes the first PGA Tour member to win a tournament title back-to-back since Brooks Koepka won the 2018 and 2019 PGA Championships. Hovland was outstanding all tournament but, especially on Saturday, where he shot a career low 62.
We had Matthew Wolff who was leading the tournament going into the weekend until he shot a 74 on Saturday which moved him out of contention. Wolff would wind up finishing T5 for the tournament. However, we also had Mexico native Carlos Ortiz who finished second in the tournament. In the past four tournaments we have been so close to sweeping with the following results:
WWT Championship: Carlos Ortiz (2nd Place, 80-1)
Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Patrick Reed (2nd Place, 20-1)
CJ Cup @ Summit: Collin Morikawa (2nd Place, 16-1)
The PGA Tour travels up to Texas where the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open will take place. This event has undergone a few sponsorship, venue, and date changes over the past few years but remains a regular stop on the PGA Tour. We have a decent field this week that features 18 of the world’s top 50 golfers as of now.
Tournament Information:
Dates: November 11th, 2021- November 14th, 2021
Location: Houston, Texas, United States
Course: Memorial Park Golf Course
Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,412 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: MiniVerde bermudagrass .100″
Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .425″
Rough: 419 bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 12.0- 12.5 feet
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.350 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 17
Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play on 4 Holes)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
2020: 71.03 (+1.03)
Course/ Tournament History:
The Houston Open will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course for just the second time. In 2019 the Astros Foundation donated $34 million to revamp Memorial Park under the leadership of Tom Doak. Brooks Koepka was the PGA advisor for that renovation and is in the field this week (we’ll get to him later).
Prior to 2020, this tournament was played at the Golf Club of Houston. Last year this tournament took place in a week before the Masters due to the COVID-19 schedule changes. However this year, it’s the second to last PGA Tour Event in the Fall season.
This is also the first year that Hewlett Packard Enterprise will take over the sponsorship rights. With this change in sponsorship, the prize pool has been increased back to $7.5 Million which we saw in 2019.
After several weeks of short courses we finally arrive at Memorial Park Golf Course. Memorial is a particularly long course that plays just over 7,400 yards and places on emphasis on Strokes Gained Off the Tee. We always talk about how the long hitters have an advantage but they especially do here. Memorial played as the 12th toughest venue on tour last year which correlates to the scoring average.
This is a municipal course so if you’re ever in the Houston area, feel free to go check it out. When describing the course, it’s fairly open off the tee with generous fairways. The fairways are tree-lined however, they are a ways back and don’t place as big as an emphasis on driver accuracy like we saw last week. The rough is fairly penalizing and can burry the ball forcing a less than ideal approach shot. Memorial only has 17 bunkers that don’t play much of a factor. Most of the bunkers were eliminated during the 2019 renovation.
An interesting note for this tournament last year was that Strokes Gained: Around the Green played more of a role than Strokes Gained: Approach. Memorial features elevation changes from fairways to greens which makes approach shots even more challenging. This also placed an emphasis on play around the green due to missed GIR as previously mentioned. Carlos Ortiz who won the Houston Open last year finished 1st in scrambling for this event.
The length is the main factor here with eight of the ten Par 4’s playing over 440 yards. Out of these eight Par 4’s, two of them are over 500 yards (Holes #1 and #18). Memorial has five Par 3’s that are relatively long with the most difficult playing 237 yards (Hole #11). All three of the Par 5’s are very long and really provide a scoring advantage for long players. Like last year, birdie opportunities will be hard to come by and must be taken advantage of.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: John Bredemus (1936)
Renovations: Tom Doak w/ Brooks Koepka as PGA adviser (2019)
Renovated #9 green complex and removed two of the bunkers. Also added 750 sq. ft. to #2 green.
** Prior to 2020 the Houston Open was played at the Golf Club of Houston (previously Redstone Golf Course)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)
Price: 160-1
2019: Lanto Griffin (-14)**
Price: 60-1
2018: Ian Poulter (-19)**
Price: 100-1
2017: Russell Henley (-20)**
Price: 40-1
Picks (Outright):
Sungjae Im (+2500) – Caesars
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Sungjae Im starts the card for us coming off a win earlier this year in the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s been playing exceptionally well this year and enters the tournament 2nd in the FedEx Cup standings. Sungjae ranks 3rd in SG: Around the Green, 5th in SG: Tee to Green, 7th in SG: Total, and 26th in SG: Off the Tee. On top of that, he’s 63rd in Driving Distance and 6th in GIR %. Last year he finished 50th but given his recent form I think he can improve on that finish. If all those stats weren’t convincing enough, he’s also 2nd in Scrambling on Tour which as we saw last year played a major factor in Ortiz winning this event.
Brooks Koepka (+3000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
After a brief peak at #golftwitter I think everyone is on Brooks this week which means we’ve most likely mushed him. With Brooks involved in the re-design of Memorial Park, he was bound to be a popular play. He hasn’t been too impressive this year especially last week when he missed the cut. Brooks finished 5th last year in the Houston Open.
Talor Gooch (+3300) – FanDuel
Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
Gooch has been one of the stars during the PGA Tour’s fall season along with Wise. In his last four tournaments Talor Gooch has finished T11, T5, T11, and T4. He ranks 6th on Tour in SG: Around the Green and Approach the Green. Gooch is has also bee great off the tee ranking 3rd in SG: Tee to Green and 8th in SG: Total. He’s not one of the longest players on tour but does rank within the Top 75 for Driving Distance. Given Talor Gooch’s form and how he’s striking the ball I like him to capture his first PGA Tour victory here. In the 2020 Houston Open, he finished 4th.
Maverick McNealy (+4000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units
Just like Gooch, Maverick McNealy enters the Houston Open in great form. He’s coming off a T11 at the WWT Championship and a T25 finish a the Zozo. Early in the PGA Tour Fall Season, he finished 2nd at the Fortinet Championship. He currently ranks 20th in SG: Total, 29th in SG: Off the Tee, 32nd in SG: Tee to Green, and 46th in SG: Around the Green. He’s also within the Top 50 of Driving Distance so he does have a slight advantage over the field. Overall, at 40-1 he fits the course extremely well and has a great shot here. Last year he finished 20th in this tournament.
Taylor Pendrith (+12000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.07 to win 8.40 Units
Looks like its the week of the Talor/Taylor’s at the Houston Open for me. Pendrith caught me eye this week due to his ability off the tee. He ranks 20th in SG: Off the Tee and 20th in Driving Distance. This will be his first time competing in this event but has played well as of late besides last week at Mayakoba. He’s a longshot for sure but his distance will allow him to compete this week and give him an advantage over most of the field.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.11 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Sam Burns (+105) – Draftkings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Mito Pereira (+270) – Draftkings
Risk 0.50 to win 1.35 Units
Luke List (+500) – Draftkings
Risk 0.5 to win 2.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Houston Open : 3.11 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Happy opening night everyone!! We have 2 premium CBB plays for tonight and one of them is below. Lets start the season with some winners!! Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!
Updated Monthly Passat The Odds Breakers COMING SOON!
The UC-Irvine Anteaters and the New Mexico State Aggies meet tonight from the Pan American Center. The Anteaters come into the season looking to build on their 18-9 record a year ago, including a 10-4 in conference play to finish 2nd in the Big West and as the 2-seed in the Big West conference tournament. UC Irvine bring back the majority of their roster, led by Collin Welp who had 15.1 PPG and 7.6 RPG for UC-Irvine last season while Dawson Baker had 10.7 PPG and 2.3 RPG as a freshman. DJ Davis, Isaiah Lee, JC Butler and Austin Johnson make up a familiar core group for the Anteaters. The New Mexico State Aggies will look to take a step forward after a 12-9 season last year, including 7-6 in conference play. The Aggies bring back a solid group led by Jabari Rice (13.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.2 APG last season) and Donnie Tillman (11.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG last year) and Johnny McCants averaged 10 PPG and 6.1 RPG. . New Mexico State also hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in 5 D-1 transfers, led by Teddy Allen who averaged 16.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, .376 3PT at Nebraska last season. New Mexico St head coach Chris Jans said “we have a lot of new players. Meshing the new with the old and the chemistry that needs to be built organically will be a big factor in determining how much success we can have.” I expect the defenses to be ahead of the offenses in this one and it should also take time for the offenses to mesh. Take Under 136.5
We have an action packed night in the NHL with 10 games lined up. Two Stanley Cup favorites face off tonight when the Hurricanes travel to Tampa. However, the game I like tonight is the Florida Panthers taking on the New Jersey Devils.
Florida Panthers @ New Jersey Devils
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
-135
-140
-1.5 (+170)
o6.0 (-110)
New Jersey Devils
+115
+120
+1.5 (-190)
u6.0 (-110)
Face-Off: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN +
The Florida Panthers are coming off their first loss in regulation last night to the New York Rangers. The Panthers played well and won the expected goal battle, 3.9 to 2.6. However, the difference came in net with Spencer Knight having a -1.4 GSAx and Igor Shersterkin having a +0.9 GSAx. Florida will look to rebound tonight against a New Jersey team that has been inconsistent all year.
The Panthers are currently averaging the second most goals per game with 4.08. They also have one of the best xGoals % in the NHL at 53.74%. Florida has not had any trouble finding the back of the net all year. In the points department, they are led by Aleksander Barkov, who has 13 points on the year. Their Power Play has also been great this year as they convert on 25% of their man up advantages.
Florida has also been solid defensively giving up the third fewest goals per game (2.25). However, the main star of the show has been Sergei Bobrovsky who leads the NHL with a +14.4 GSAx! He’s been incredible this year and one of the main reasons for the Panthers early season success. He’s currently dealing with an injury so Spencer Knight has been confirmed the starter for back to back games. While Knight hasn’t been great this year, I like him to try and get his game back against the Devils offense.
The New Jersey Devils have had a wild ride to start the season but, still have a 5-3-2 record. The Devils have been bitten by the injury bug early with Jack Hughes and Miles Wood being placed on IR. Having these two out hurts this squad who’s only averaging 2.5 goals per game. To make matters worse both are on the Power Play that ranks 30th in the NHL.
The good news for the Devils is that they will get back their top blueliner in Dougie Hamilton tonight. Hamilton returns from a lower body injury after missing two games. New Jersey will also get back their starting goaltender in Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood only started one game this season where he had a 3.00 GAA and a .897 SV%. There’s really no telling how he’ll perform here coming off an injury.
PICK: FLORIDA PANTHERS (-140)
This sets up for a trap game with the Panthers coming off their first loss. However, the Panthers are a much more dominant team especially on offense. The Devils have been inconsistent and face a tough Panthers defense that matches up well. I also don’t love Blackwood making his second start of the year against a top offense in the NHL.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
In addition to this NBA free play, I’ve also sent my premium members a College Basketball play for tonight. My premium plays are hitting at a 67% rate(57-28-1) and have netted my members +42.9u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Clippers -3(-110) vs Trail Blazers–9:05 PM CT
These teams have squared off twice already(once in LA, once in Portland), with the home teams prevailing convincingly in each game. Tonight, I think we will see that trend continue. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 in road games this season and are still breaking in a 1st year HC in Chauncey Billups. The Billups experiment has a chance to work out in Portland, but off-the-court distractions have been an issue already. The Clippers enter this matchup on a 4 game winning streak; the average margin of victory in those wins has been 12.5 points/game. I can’t bet against the Clippers in their current form, and given that they’re familiar with this Portland squad, I think they’ll keep their winning streak rolling once again tonight.
*CBB(1u): Georgia -6.5(-110) vs Florida International–6 PM CT
I’m not going to be very high volume in CBB to start out the season, but I do like this spot tonight. It is widely accepted in the CBB community that Georgia could very well be the worst team in the Power 5 this season. Until we are proven otherwise, I enter the season acknowledging that possibility. Even so, their opponent tonight is completely inadequate. According to kenpom.com(a trusted source for CBB power rankings that I would recommend as a reference), Florida International enters this season as the 309th best team out of 358 Division 1 teams. In both their offensive and defensive ratings, they also rank worse than 300th. Georgia can be even worse than expected and still win this game by double digits tonight, and I think that’s exactly what we’ll see happen.
Opening night NCAAB Hoops and we have 3 power plays, along with NBA and College Football.
NCAAB Tuesday comp play on Butler at 6:34 eastern. Butler returns all but one player and everyone who played at least 7 games. They were inconsistent last year but will have great continuity with all 5 starters back including leading scorer Guard Chuck Harris. Butler is 3-0 vs IUPUI and all wins were by 32 or more. Look for another domination. For the NCAAB Play Go with Butler. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
