Are you kidding me with that Steelers game? That’s about as phony a cover as you’ll find, but at least our 3-star teaser hit. To say I was “fired up” after that BS would be a grand understatement. Steve and I had the Steelers -6.5 in Circa, too. The Hornets game was also rather heart-breaking (+2.5, goes into OT, lost by 3, unreal). Just one of those nights!
On a separate note, I won’t be offering a significant amount of College Basketball plays until January. There’s just too much to focus on right now in the NFL and NBA. What I will do is collaborate with other sharper CBB bettors and try to find some value for you guys– maybe a lot of leans. TBD on what I can do here.
Here are my NBA plays tonight:
Bucks -6.5 *
Blazers 1H under 55.5 ** (listen to the BetUS NBA pod for these two descriptions, if you get a chance later today)
Look for D. Mitchell props over (points or points + assists). Not an official play right now because I don’t see any prop lines just yet, but the Hawks’ guard defense has been abysmal (T. Young in particular)
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back for some fantasy football while Kiev O’Neil does what he does! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 10 and NFL week 9 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 11 and NFL Week 10. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 11! Then, Dave comes on and the guys talk some Fantasy Football. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev and Dave gives out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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We have a small 3 game slate tonight in the NHL. The biggest game of the night is the Florida Panthers traveling to New York to take on the Rangers. Florida has the best record of the year and looks stay hot against a good Rangers team. Tonight however, we check out a matchup between two teams looking to turn it around in the Buffalo Sabres and Washington Capitals.
Buffalo Sabres @ Washington Capitals
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Buffalo Sabres
+215
+210
+1.5 (-115)
o5.5 (-120)
Washington Capitals
-255
-250
-1.5 (-105)
u5.5 (+100)
The Buffalo Sabres shocked the NHL earlier this year and started off great but, have regressed as most would have predicted. They enter tonight’ game on a 4-game losing streak and will look to turn it around against a tough Capitals team.
As I had mentioned in a previous article, the Jack Eichel saga has come to an end in Buffalo. For the past few years their offense was run though him and Sam Reinhart, who signed with the Panthers in the off season. This year Victor Oloffsson has stepped up for the team but was declared out for tonight’s game. Another key contributor for the Sabres has been Rasmus Asplund, who leads the team in points. Tage Thompson who switched from winger to center under Don Granato has also been playing better.
Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been great as of late, conceding an average of 4.25 goals against during their four game losing streak. Rasmus Dahlin who was picked first overall by the Sabres in 2018 draft, has not been as good as they would have hoped. He’s struggled to generate offense and lacks strength to make the tough plays in front of the net. The bright spot for the Sabres has been the play in net with Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski. Anderson is out for tonight’s game so Tokarski will get the start. He has a +1.9 GSAx on the year along with a 2.72 GAA and .915 SV%.
The Capitals also had a stellar start to the year but like the Sabres, enter this game on a losing streak. Washington has dropped their last four out of five, including a 2-1 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday. The good news for the Capitals is that they average the 6th most goals per game (3.36) and face a team struggling defensively in Buffalo. Washington is led by none other than longtime captain Alex Ovechkin in points who has 18 through their first 11 games. The start of Washington’s three game slide correlated to TJ Oshie’s injury who is on IR currently for a lower body injury. He was a key contributor to their offense but, will be sidelined for a few months. In addition to Oshie, Washington will be without Backstrom and Mantha.
On the back end of things Washington has been solid to start the season. They currently average 2.64 goals against and allow the second lowest shots on goal per game. However an interesting matchup tonight will be the Caps Penalty Kill which ranks 20th against Buffalo’s Power Play that ranks 5th. The Caps don’t take many penalties which will be a trend they need to follow if they want to win tonight’s game. Vitek Vanecek will start tonight for the Washington Capitals. Vanecek has been average this year allowing an average of 2.43 goals against per game and a +0.8 GSAx.
PICK: BUFFALO SABRES +1.5 (-115)
Tonight’s matchup is between two teams that are struggling, the Capitals have not played great enough as of late to be -250 on the moneyline. Tokarski has also been good as of late and ranks higher than Vanecek in individual stats. Both teams are without key contributors in offense with Olofsson and Oshie out. I’m going with a value play tonight with the Sabres puckline. If you’re feeling dangerous on Monday night, sprinkle the +210 moneyline.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
*NFL Teaser(1u): Steelers -1 vs Bears AND Bears/Steelers UNDER 46–7:15 PM CT
The Steelers have been bet up all the way to 7-point favorites, and I can’t say I disagree with that line movement. The Bears offense has shown little ability to produce explosive plays; considering the Steelers’ defense has been Pittsburgh’s rock all season, I have a hard time trusting a rookie QB on the road in primetime. That said, Big Ben is very limited these days in what he can do through the passing game, which allows opposing defenses to sell out and stop the run(Najee Harris: 3.7 YPC this season). The Bears are competent defensively, and I think they’ll have some success against an offense that is limited by an aged QB. The Steelers know that they are a defensive football team(Mike Tomlin has been doing this long enough), and ultimately, I have faith the home team will find a way to win in ugly fashion. I like teasing the Steelers down to -1 and steaming the Under up to 46.
Monday night Football Triple System Top play with 100% Angle Headlines along with the 23-1 Western Conference NBA Game of the Month. NBA Comp Play below
The NBA Comp Play is on the NY. Knicks plus the 4-5 points in Philadelphia tonight at 7:10 eastern. The Knicks were inept last night particularly on the defensive end where they allowed an uncharacteristic 126 points at home to Cleveland. The good news is that NY has covered 7 of 8 with no rest and from the database we see that road dogs with no rest that are off a home favored loss allowing 125 or more points have covered 80% since 1995 vs a team like Philly off a road dog win. The Sixers cooled off the Bulls on Saturday and are just 2-5 ats in the series. Look for NY To get the Cover here tonight. Tonight Rob has a Triple System Play in Monday Night Football with a Perfect Angle. There is also the 23-1 NBA Western Conference Power Play of the Month. Jump on as we start the week big. Jumo on tonight at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter For the NBA Comp play. Take the Points with the Knicks. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Bulls -1.5 ** (Nets in a horrible spot, Bulls at home in a much better spot and seeking redemption after getting punked by Philly)
Heat/Nuggets under 205.5 * (Slow paced teams, best defenses in the NBA, Denver without Porter Jr. will slow this down more)
Hornets +2.5 ** (this number may go down, not sure. But if Anthony Davis does not play, which we don’t know yet, it could go the other way, too. I like this at +2.5– the Lakers are so damn overrated and Charlotte is due a win, even in a bad spot)
Valancuinas over 20 pts ** (I’m not seeing props yet but this should be near where it falls. I’d bet on anything over 21.5. This game will fall squarely on Valancuinas’ shoulders and I expect him to have an easy time against a soft Dallas backcourt)
The Cowboys have looked great in their 6-1 start to the season, but let’s not crown these guys just yet. They were lucky to win in Minnesota last Sunday night and have played a mostly weak schedule over their past 5 games. Denver got off to a fast 3-0 start before losing 4 in a row, but they did bounce back with a win over WFT last week. Teddy Bridgewater is completing 70.4% of his passes and at the very least will be able to keep the Broncos in drives. In any case, I think the Cowboys are due to regress a bit after a fast start and some fortunate breaks over their past 2 games. Double-digit spreads in the NFL should be reserved for total mismatches, and that’s just not what we’re getting here. Give me the road ‘dog.
The Chargers have lost 2 straight and currently sit at 4-3, but that presents a fantastic opportunity to buy somewhat low on them in this matchup. If you’ve tailed me for long enough, you know how lowly I rate Jalen Hurts and this Eagles group. The Chargers have Super Bowl potential, and I would expect them to look much more consistent(and dominant) over the back-half of the season. Easy play for me.
Not a lot of market support for Miami in their home game hosting the Houston Texans today with 78% of the money on HOU to cover the +5.5. I like Miami in this one as they have lost some close ones so far in the season, they are better than their 1-7 record.
Miami is not known to be a scoring squad so that does concern me with the -5.5, so I’m looking at alternative ways to play on them. I like the better line for Miami 1Q -1/2 (-105) as they have been one of the most profitable 1st quarter teams in the league at 7-1 1Q ATS on the season for +6.05 units.
No doubt Houston is a better team with Tyrod Taylor at QB so I’ll keep this play small. Houston MLB Kirksey out helps Miami establish their run game early. Give me the Dolphins 1Q -1/2 at home in the early game!
