The Detroit Red Wings head to Washington to take on the Capitals. Check out my preview and picks below.
Detroit Red Wings @ Washington Capitals
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Detroit Red Wings
+180
+170
+1.5 (-130)
o6.0 (-120)
Washington Capitals
-210
-200
-1.5 (+110)
u6.0 (+100)
The Detroit Red Wings have had a decent start for what’s supposed to be a rebuilding period for them. They currently sit in 3rd place in the Atlantic division with a 3-2-1 record. The Red Wings head to Washington to wrap up their three game road trip where they lost in Montreal 6-1, and won 6-3 in Chicago on Sunday.
While they have not confirmed their starting goalie, Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to get the nod in net. He was acquired from Carolina in a trade back in July but, hasn’t looked like the goalie he was last year. Nedeljkovic has a 1-1-1 record with a .897 SV% and a -0.1 GSAx. However, Thomas Greiss, their other goalie, has looked much better with a +1.2 GSAx and a 2-1 record. We’ll see who gets the start tonight.
The Red Wings offense has been one of the best in the league averaging 3.33 goals per game. Tyler Bertuzzi leads the team with nine points through the first five games, and is tied for second in goals in the NHL. Captain Dylan Larkin has also contributed offensively with seven points. The issue is that the Red Wings are allowing 3.5 goals per game which is 26th in the NHL.
The Washington Capitals are off to a hot start with a 4-0-2 record. Unsurprisingly, long time Captain Alex Ovechkin is leading the team in points, and the NHL in scoring. The Capitals are averaging 4.33 goals per game with the fourth best shooting percentage in the league. They also have been solid defensively anchored by Vitek Vanecek who has a +3.8 GSAx through four starts. Vanecek is expected to get the nod between the pipes tonight but, hasn’t been confirmed yet. They seem to be clicking on all cylinders early and are certainly a contender this year.
PICK: OVER 6.0 (-120)
These teams have some of the best offenses in the league so I’m expecting a high scoring affair. Each of these teams is averaging over 3 goals per game with no signs of slowing down based on their previous games. Both teams like to play fast which will only help the over. Washington is the superior team and given Detroit’s struggles in net, I think that can only aid the over here.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We cash our first winner of the year in Hideki Matsuyama at 14-1! Matsuyama was close to the lead throughout the entire tournament but gave us a scare on Sunday as he fought off Cameron Tringale to capture the win on his home soil. The PGA now travels to beautiful Bermuda for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. If you’re looking for star power and big names, well, this is absolutely not the tournament for you. The field is headlined by Patrick Reed, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and up and comer Mito Pereira. Previous winners Brian Gay and Brendon Todd were both slump-busters. Brian Gay who will defend his title, captured his first win in seven years while Bredon Todd broke his five year streak. This is by no means the flashiest tournament but, offers a chance to cash in on some large odds. Another interesting note to add is that this will be the first tournament that has a cut line in three weeks.
Tournament Information:
Dates: October 28, 2021- October 31, 2021
Location: Southampton, Bermuda
Course: Port Royal Golf Course
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 6,828 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass .130″
Fairways: 419 Bermudagrass .500″
Rough: 419/ St. Augustine/ zoysia 2″
Stimpmeter: 11 feet
Purse: $6,500,000 / Winner $1.17 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 88
Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play: 5 Holes)
Scoring Average:
2020: 71.15 (+0.15)
2019: 69.83 (-1.17)
Course History:
The inaugural Butterfield Bermuda Championship held in 2019, however it was an alternate event back then. In 2020, this event started to offer 500 FedEx Cup points and became an official event on the Tour. This year, even more is at stake with a full 2-year exemption, an invite to the 2022 Tournament of Champions and The Masters. The price pool also is $6.5 Million which is the largest the tournament has offered.
Port Royal Golf Course is one of the shortest courses on tour playing just over 6,800 yards. It’s a coastal course, so the biggest factor this week will be the wind. This Par 71 is split 36-35 featuring four Par 3’s. Out of those four Par 3’s, three of them play over 200+ yards. The longest hole on the course is Hole #2, which is a 553 yard Par 5. The other two Par 5’s are reachable in 2 (Hole #7 & Hole #17). The course is one of the easiest on tour as it’s open and short, with it’s only defense coming from the wind. We’ve seen from the past two winners that really anyone can win here, so it should be an interesting tournament.
Patrick Reed at 20-1 is downright disrespectful compared to this field. He should be motivated to get his game back on track after being left out of the US Ryder Cup team and has played well on similar courses. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went out this week and won this tournament for fun. He’s also historically been great putting on Bermudagrass and with high winds. I understand the odds are due to his recent form as he’s coming back from double pneumonia but, he should have had enough time off to figure things out. Hopefully his wife see’s this s/o @useGolfFACTS on twitter (his wife’s burner).
Russel Knox (+4500) – Draftkings
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Russel Knox is one of the best, if not the best player when it comes to playing courses that have high winds. Knox has also played well at this tournament in the past with a 11th place finish in 2019, and a 16th place finish in 2020. He’s 60th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy % and 68th in SG: Tee to Green. Besides his most recent finish in the Shriners where he missed the cut, he’s been in good form. He finished T58 at the Fortinet and T29 at the Sanderson Farms.
Denny McCarthy (+5000) – Draftkings
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Looking at this field and event history, it’s truly anyone’s tournament to win. However, McCarthy is a standout to me given his previous finishes in this tournament. In 2019, he finished 15th and in 2020 he finished 4th. He is also one of the best wind players on Tour which is going to play a major factor, as the wind is predicted to be between 15-25 MPH all days. The course features three 200+ yard Par 3’s which McCarthy ranks in the Top 10 of that category. Denny McCarthy is 24th on Tour for Driving Accuracy %, 48th for Greens in Regulation %, and 27th in Scrambling. As if that wasn’t enough, Denny McCarthy is one of the best putters on Bermudagrass.
Ryan Armour (+5500) – Draftkings
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
This will be the third time that Ryan Armour has played in this event, finishing 8th in both his previous appearances. Going to be honest here, he hasn’t been in great form but, these coastal courses have seemed to fit him well in the past.
Matthew NeSmith (+10000) – Draftkings
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Like McCarthy, Matthew NeSmith is one of the best wind players on tour. While NeSmith isn’t one of the best players off the tee, he is 5th on Tour in SG: Approach. This will be the first time he plays in this event, but has been in decent form as of late. He finished T51 in the Fortinet, T14 in the Shriners, and T48 in the Zozo.
Graeme McDowell (+10000) – Draftkings
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Graeme McDowell currently ranks 1st on Tour in Driving Accuracy % which is crucial on the course as seen from previous winners. He’s not the longest hitter by any means but, on this course it doesn’t matter. Historically he’s been great on these short coastal courses so I’m sticking with that trend here.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.05 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
What a terrible beat last night in the NYR/ CAL under 5.5. Heading into the third period we looked great with just two goals, then in the third they explode for four goals and hit the over with just 5 seconds remaining! That’s hockey for you though, we’re back with three picks for tonight’s slate. If you’re curious for a more in depth breakdown, head to my twitter for a Podcast I’ll be on tomorrow.
What a start for the back to back Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning! They’re currently 2-3-1 and hold 5th place in Atlantic division… Not the start they we’re hoping for at all, but to be fair they have issues that across the board. To start, Andrei Vasilevskiy is not in Conn Smythe form, and has a -1.4 GSAx compared to his +26.6 GSAx last playoffs. Losing Nikita Kucherov who had four points in three games for them has limited them offensively, specifically their Power Play. Kucherov had 32 points in the playoffs last year for them. Captain Steven Stamkos currently leads the team in points with 9 points through their first five games. On top of their struggles in net and offensively, they are allowing an average of 4 goals per game which is 29th in the league. After losing 5-1 to the Sabres last night, I don’t see a return to their old form soon.
The Pittsburgh Penguins on the other hand, have rallied as a team behind the loss of their Captain, Sidney Crosby and hold a 3-0-2 record. Speaking of Crosby, he is skating with the team and looks to be returning to the lineup any day now. The big story for them has been the play of Tristan Jarry. To put it bluntly, Jarry was atrocious in last years playoffs with a -7.9 GSAx. However, this year he seems to have turned it around and has a +5.1 GSAx with a 3-0-1 record. Danton Heinen, Drew O’Conner, and Evan Rodrigues lead the team with 5 points a piece. The Penguins currently have the second highest goals per game in the NHL with 4.6 and the fifth lowest goals against per game with 2.2. They also have the best Penalty Kill with a 92.3 %.
PICK: PITTSBURGH PENGUINS +120
While this may be a popular play given Tampa’s struggles, it’s hard to pass on Pittsburgh at + money here. The Penguins have seem to come together as team and are playing some great all around hockey right now.
Vegas Golden Knights @ Colorado Avalanche
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Vegas Golden Knights
+235
+145
+0.5 (-200)
o6.0 (-120)
Colorado Avalanche
+130
-160
-0.5 (+130)
u6.0 (+100)
The Colorado Avalanche face off against the Vegas Golden Knights for the first time, since the Knights won four straight and knocked the Av’s out of the playoffs last year. These teams split the series 4-4 in the regular season last year.
Definitely not the start that the Golden Knights were hoping for at all with a 1-4 record. Vegas has been awful in every aspect, specifically goaltending. They lost Marc-Andre Fleury in the off season to Chicago, and Robin Lehner has not stepped up. He has a 1-4 record with a 3.27 GAA and +0.2 GSAx this season. However, he hasn’t had much help up front with the Golden Knights only averaging two goals per game. On top of that, they’re allowing an average of 3.8 goals per game. The loss of Max Pacioretty and Marc Stone have not helped, but even with playing only two games a piece they are still 2nd and 3rd in scoring for the team. If they want to get back in the win category, they’ll need William Karlsson and Johnathan Marchessault to step up.
The Avalanche haven’t exactly had a dream start to their season either with just a 2-3 record. In the off season they lost Phillip Grubauer to the Seattle Kraken, and replacement Darcey Kuemper has struggled. He has a 2-2 record with a .894 SV% and a -2.9 GSAx. In the first game of the season the Avalanche lost Gabriel Landeskog for two games with a suspension on a hit. Nathan Mackinnon has only played three games out of five after suffering COVID-19. Another major issues is the Power Play, last season they had one best and this year they have the third worst percentage on the man up. Their 2-3 record may be deceiving, out of those three losses two have come from undefeated teams (STL & FLA). They have also been struggling defensively allowing an average of 4 goals per game.
PICK: COLORADO AVALANCHE (-160)
The Avalanche have shown some signs of life this season, while Vegas has not. The return of Mackinnon and Landeskog have seemed to revitalize the team a bit. It’s also a revenge game for Colorado so I expect them to come out fired up.
Montreal Canadiens @ Seattle Kraken
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Montreal Canadiens
-135
+105
+1.5 (-230)
o5.5 (-120)
Seattle Kraken
+100
-115
-1.5 (+190)
u5.5 (+100)
The Stanley Cup finalists, head to Seattle for their second home game in team history. The Montreal Canadiens are awful, terrible, one of the worst teams in hockey currently? Probably all are true at this point, the loss of Carey Price has devastated this team who currently have a 1-5 record. Price was the backbone of this squad and carried them to the finals last year with a +12.3 GSAx in the playoffs. The Habs are struggling offensively to put it bluntly with a 1.67 goals per game average. The young guns Cole Cauffield and Nick Suzuki only have 1 point a piece through the first six games. Last year they had the best Penalty Kill in the league with a 32 consecutive kills in the playoffs but this year they have the fourth worst PK%. Their captain Shea Weber is out for the season with a lower body injury which only hurts them more. Jake Allen will most likely be the starter in net with a 1-3-1 record, a .869 SV%, and a 3.79 GAA. The good news is that they face a team that is struggling as much as them in the Seattle Kraken.
The Seattle Kraken are off to a 1-4-1 start in their inaugural season in the NHL. In the off season they made a surprising signing of Phillip Grubauer. Grubauer was great for the Avalanche last season with a +5.2 GSAx but has a -4 GSAx this season. They also added Chris Dreidger from Florida in the expansion draft who is on IR. They hoped to model themselves after Vegas’ first season and build around solid goaltending but that has not been the case. However, goaltending is not their only issue, like the Habs, they are struggling offensively. They’re averaging 2.57 goals per game which is 25th in the league. Yanni Gourde has returned to the lineup after recovering from shoulder surgery this off season so they’re hoping he can provide a spark for them.
PICK: UNDER 5.5 (+100)
Given the struggles offensively both teams are having, I see this game being a low scoring affair. The Kraken are also 30th in the league in shots and are failing to create opportunities up front. Even with the goalies in net (Allen-Grubauer), I still don’t see them scoring more than 5.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
In addition to this NBA free play, I have an MLB premium play for my members going tonight. Over the past 2 months, my premium plays have gone 44-22-1(66%) and have netted my members +34.47u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Thunder +9 vs Warriors–7:10 PM CT
These teams have had polar opposite starts to their seasons. The Warriors(3-0) have come out guns-a-blazin’, while the Thunder are winless and have lost each game by double digits. Even so, I don’t think this Thunder team is doomed to be inept all season. By adding Josh Giddey to a roster that already contained Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Lou Dort, the Thunder have loads to talent to work with. It’s still early in the season; I believe this team will start to gel together and show consistent improvement from game to game. While OKC fell behind by 12 to Philadelphia in their last game, they played an even game with the 76ers the rest of the way and kept that margin the same. This could be a “fat and happy” spot for Golden State following 2 great wins against the Lakers and Clippers as well as an easy win over the Kings there last time out. Motivation is crucial when handicapping the NBA, and the reality is I don’t know how high the motivation is for Golden State to max out in this game. The Thunder are a work in progress, but I’ll take the 9 points with them at home tonight.
Astros SP Framber Valdez through a gem against the Red Sox in his last start, but I’m not afraid to go against him tonight. The young lefty showed little consistency throughout the ‘21 season and has glaring struggles with command, especially at home(4.9 BB/9 at Minute Maid). Even with that great start against the Red Sox, Valdez has a 4.20 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this postseason. The Braves didn’t handle lefties all that well during the regular season, but they do mix-and-match some quality right-handed bats and improved against LPH throughout the season. The major advantage on the mound tonight goes to veteran righty and former Astro Charlie Morton. Even at 37 years old, Morton delivered a stellar season(3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and is a big reason why the Braves have made this run. Sure, it’s tough to bet against the Astros’ lineup, but Morton has shown consistency in limiting the long ball and knows this Houston lineup better than most. At +113, I believe the Braves are worth a play in the first 5 innings.
The World Series starts tonight and we have a perfect Historical system playing on the Total in game 1. Below is the Carabao Cup Soccer Play.
The Carabao Cup Play is on Chelsea at 2:45 eastern. Asian Handicap -1 -130 The Blue is on a 4-0 run with a 11-0 margin in the last two alone. They beat Southhampton 3-1 in their last meeting and have lost just once i 6 years in the series. Meanwhile, Southampton has won just twice in their last 12 fixtures. have just one win on the road, against a team that currently plays in the top flight. Chelsea has too much talent here and likely emerge with another win. Rob V- GC Sports
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back for some fantasy football while Kiev O’Neil does what he does! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 8 and NFL week 7 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 9 and NFL Week 8. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 9! Then, Dave comes on and the guys talk some Fantasy Football. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev and Dave gives out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds21 for 10% off the price!
If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves! Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.
Tonight we’re seeing the Bulls visit the Raptors with the Bulls not likely to have C Vucevic, and the Raptors still without F Siakim. Both teams are rated in the top four in opponents PPG allowed (DEF), keeping the total low here at 212 as CHI is 1-2 to the Under and TOR is 0-3. Chicago’s low scoring games are surely due to playing against a Detroit team twice that is struggling to score. Toronto has been struggling to find it’s identity without Lowry and his replacement Dragic has been a virtual no show so far with 5.3 ppg.
With Demar Derozan revisiting the team that he spent the majority of his career with, I expect him to come out with something to prove. Even without Vucevic and PG Coby White, I expect plenty of Offense from Chicago tonight, with Toronto still settling into their roster. I’ll stay off the total but I like the stars and the totality of the Bulls’ roster to stay hot at the lower CHI 1H -1/2 (-105) for 1.05u.
We’ve come back down to Earth a tad but we’re still riding high to start the NBA season, going 11-5 for +12 units so far. I don’t have a ton of time to write this post but below is a side I really like today– Let’s get some more wins!
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 11-5, +12.1 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 52-46, +14.1 units
Hawks 1H -6.5 (-115), 2 units:
The Pistons have yet to score 90 points (2 games but, still)
Jerami Grant, their best offensive weapon, is questionable and dealing with an injury
The Pistons are one of the most (if not THE most) talent poor rosters in the NBA
The Hawks lost embarrassingly against the Cavs a few nights ago
The Hawks are at home and they’re significantly more talented on both sides of the court. That alone is often worth the points.
Trae Young didn’t play well in his last outing (8/22 from the field)
The Hawks are healthy and looking to bounce back in a big way
Atlanta currently sits around -12 for this contest, which is a little lower than my numbers but I can’t bet the full game at such a huge figure. What I can do, and what I will do, is bet that the Hawks will come out on fire and overwhelm the Pistons early and often. I love this first half line on the Hawks — take it and don’t think twice!
