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NFL Week 7 Free Plays – Sports Betting

Baltimore vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47

Baltimore has been on a tear this year since that weird Raiders game they lost in overtime.   No matter what this team keeps going strong even through bad injuries and Lamar Jackson is a huge part of that.  In saying that, the Ravens have also been the luckiest team from a winning perspective in the league.   This team should have lost to Detroit due to an officiating blunder and clutch performances, they got the job done on a 66 yard field goal.   Other close games were vs Kansas City and Indianapolis.   The Bengals on the other hand look to be on a mission.  They spent a ton of money on the defense and it looks like it is paying off.  Joe Burrow to Jamar Chase has really paid off so far and Joe is right aligned with Lamar Jackson in passing EPA but on defense, the edge goes to Cincinnati ranking 7th in opponent EPA per play to Baltimore’s 12th.  Baltimore’s strength of schedule is a bit better than Cincinnati’s but their opponents were all offensive based or bad in general minus the Broncos.  Finally, Cincinnati has the better defense ranking 7th in opponent EPA Margin to Baltimore’s 12th.   The Bengals have a .4 yards per play advantage over the Ravens.  I’ll grab the points here and go with Cincinnati to keep it close.

Cincinnati +6.5 – 3 stars

Detroit vs LA Rams -15 O/U 50.5

Ok, this is the big drama game with Jared Goff coming back to LA to prove that he is an NFL quarterback to his X-girlfriend Sean McVay and the Shams.   On the other side of the coin, the Rams want to destroy the Lions to prove they made the right move right?  WRONG!   Or at least, maybe wrong.   Why would the Rams care to beat a guy who gave them their heart and soul for all of these years.   I have to think that Jared Goff has some relationships with this team and being that the Rams are doing so well with Stafford, they really have nothing to prove right now.   Looking at the metrics in this game, it is quite obvious that LA can destroy this team in the passing game and LA has most matchup advantages but if Detroit can at least blitz Stafford hard and try to have him get rid of that ball, they might be able to create some havoc.  I think that Detroit needs to commit to the run as well to keep time of possession in their favor.  Dan Campbell called this team out after the Bengals bungled them up pretty good.  My number is Rams 31-20 and the back door will be open this game if it gets out of hand.

Detroit +15 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle

Refuse to lose teaser is 3-3!   6pt teaser with the Packers to -2.5 with New England down to -1 – 2 stars

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NFL Comp Play Lions at Rams

Sunday card has the AFC North Game of the year from a 19-1 system dating to 1983, the Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the Sunday night NFL Play of the Month on NBC, along with NBA and NHL. Comp Play below.

On Sunday the NFL Comp Play is on the LA. Rams at 4:05 eastern. The Rams are laying 16 here. However they fit a powerful system that plays on home favorites from -10.5 to -16.5 that are off a pair of road favored wins and covers. These teams long term are 27-0 with a 20-5-2 spread mark. The Rams have covered 26 of 35 vs NFC Teams and the last 3 in the series. The Lions have failed to cover 10 of 13 after rushing for 90 or less yards, 17 of 21 after allowing more than 250 through the air and 4 of 5 vs winning teams. The Move to Stafford has paid off well so far. Goff for the Lions not so much. Look for the Rams to cover. On Sunday the AFC North Play of the year headlines along with a Top Executive Level TIER 1 Total, Sunday night Play of the Month, NBA and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we end the week big. For the Comp play. Lay it with LA. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

2 Free CFB Premium Picks for Saturday, October 23rd

We have been 10-3 in our last 13 College Football plays, 23-19 CFB this season and 16-8 in out last 24 plays overall (CFB, MLB, NFL).  I am giving out 2 premium picks for free below. Good luck to everyone with their plays today!!

Join the SPORTS PICK HUB  today and get all plays as soon as I bet them personally (CLV is very important long term!)

AND, grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

In a primetime matchup, the Temple Owls will travel from Philadelphia to Florida to take on the Bulls of South Florida at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday,  The Owls enter with a 3-3 record after getting blown out by a very talented Cincinnati squad last week by a score of 52-3 and the Bulls come in with a 1-5 record after losing to Tulsa by 1 last week.  Temple has been averaging 342 yards per game, 5.3 yards per play and 23.3 points per game while the Bulls are gaining 323 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play and 22.2 points per game.  These are two slow paced teams as they rank 87th and 93rd in the nation in tempo and neither have much big play ability.  The Owls rank 101st in the country in plays of 20 yards or more (24) and the Bulls are even worse by 115th in plays of 20 yards or more (20).  They both run the football at a clip just over 3.5 yards per rush but still Temple runs the ball 51% of plays and USF runs 59.3% of the time and should eat up some clock doing so.  Both of these defenses are giving up over 30 points per game but that was against offenses that were better than what they will face this Saturday and Temple actually ranks 8th in the nation with only giving up 166.5 yards per game through the air.  Additionally, the offenses wont be able to take advantage of the lack of defense as they are scoring and gaining less than their opponent has averaged on the year.  According to PFF, Temple ranks 107th on offense and the Bulls rank even worse at 115th in the nation.  I am not expecting many points in this ball game, the defenses will give up come but I expect the total to end up in the high 40s to low 50s.  Take Under 56.5

The Southern California Trojans head to Indiana to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on Saturday night.  USC enters the matchup with a 3-3 record after losing to Utah 42-26 two weeks ago and the Irish are 5-1 after beating Virginia Tech by 3 points 2 weeks ago.  The Trojans are putting up 32.2 points per game and gaining 448 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while the Fighting Irish are averaging 368 yards per game, 5.2 yards per play and 31 points per game.  Notre Dame has only played one offense ranked in the top 50 (Cincinnati), according to PFF, and this USC offense will be the most lethal they will have faced yet.  These teams also have a faster paced offense in ranking 49th and 50th in the nation in tempo and both teams pass the ball more than they run and rank in the top 15 in the nation in percentage of yards passing on offense.  Meaning both teams are looking to push the ball down the field and, specifically, Notre Dame should have no issues throwing against the USC secondary as they give up 8.4 yards per pass and almost 2 more points than what opposing offenses are scoring.  The Trojans and Irish are both in the top 50 in the country in points per play on offense and USC is one of the worst tackling offenses in the nation, according to PFF, ranking 104 in the nation. Additionally, the Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games overall.  I expect this to be a back and forth game with a lot of points and the total landing in the 60s at least.  Take Over 57.5

October 24th NFL Premium Play

2021 NFL: 14-9-1, +5.88u

I’m going to wait to see how today’s CFB action goes before making any other plays on the NFL card, but I want to go ahead and give this one out while it’s at this number. See below.

*NFL(1.5u): Bengals/Ravens OVER 46–Sun. Noon CT

The Bengals defense has performed well this season, but I’m not buying into the hype. Cincinnati has played weak offenses such as Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Chicago this season. Green Bay put up 25 points against this Bengals D a few weeks ago, but when you consider Mason Crosby missed 3 FG’s and an XP, it should’ve easily been a 30-35 point performance for Green Bay that day. Lamar Jackson provides a unique threat as a versatile QB that the Bengals simply haven’t proven that they can stop. With that being said, it’s hard to ignore how well the Bengals have looked offensively. Joe Burrow is living up to the hype, and his weapons on the outside(Higgins, Chase, etc.) are making his life much easier. It also helps that Burrow has a great talent sharing the backfield with him in RB Joe Mixon. Even going up against a stingy defense like Baltimore, I think the Bengals have a chance to flirt with the 24-25 point mark in this game. I expect each offense to take center stage and for this one to creep over posted total.

Free Picks from FarleyBets – Oct 23, 2021

Clippers team

 

It’s your boy and we got some Free Picks for your weekend! Enjoy!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAYclick here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 11-2, +17.6 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units

Run time: 1 minute, 43 seconds

NFL/CFB Teaser, Parlay of the Week, and NBA Premiums 10.23

 

2-1 night Friday! Have a great weekend, team!
NFL/CFB Teaser I’m playing (7 pt.):
  • USC +14
  • Panthers +4
  • Lions +23
  • Eagles +10
  • and Patriots win – 2 units to win 6.5 units
Weekend Parlay I’m playing: 
  • Hawks -7.5
  • Heat win
  • Clippers win
  • Vettori (UFC)
  • and USC +7 – 1 unit to win 12.62 units
NBA Plays, 10.23
  • Hawks -7.5 ** (Cleveland has shown no signs to believe in them, while the Hawks came out looking like a top 5 team, much like we anticipated. This is a big difference in talent, coaching, and team chemistry)
  • Heat/Pacers over 225 ** (The Heat showed signs of new offensive life against a really good Bucks defense Thursday. The Pacers are showing the usual poor defense and big offense that’s become predictable in most of their matchups. Over for me)
  • Clippers -3.5 * (Only 1 unit as I express caution against a good Grizzlies team, but LAC is at home, they want a win, and they’re still a much better team than Memphis)
Chris

Kyle Hunter CFB Free Play for Saturday

Pitt -3 (-120)

*3 Star Free Pick* The Clemson Tigers are 0-6 ATS this year. Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to turn things around quickly, but at this point I have to take this team at face value. Clemson is a talented team with potential, but they consistently have been weak. The Tigers had a bye week to get ready for a mediocre Syracuse team and Clemson was fortunate to hold on for a 3 point win. Syracuse averaged 5.3 yards per play and Clemson averaged only 4.3 yards per play.

Clemson is +0.57 ypp margin on the year and most of that comes from their blowout over SC State (FCS team) earlier this year. They have been outgained by most of their FBS opponents. Pittsburgh is +1.85 ypp margin (12th in the country).

Kenny Pickett has the highest PFF grade of any quarterback in the country. The Pitt offense ranks 15th in the country in success rate. The Panthers offense has been much better this season, and they should be able to move the ball enough.

The one weakness for Pitt has been their pass defense, but Clemson is shorthanded at wide receiver and they rank 122nd in explosiveness so far this year.

I’ll fade Clemson here.

Take Pittsburgh.

*30-6 so far this year on college football totals. Grab my Totally Totals Package (All Totals Picks for one month) for just $200 here at The Oddsbreakers*

NHL Preview & Picks – October 23, 2021

The NHL continues to roll with an action packed Saturday Slate. The biggest game of the day is probably the Colorado Avalanche taking on the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, we have a Eastern Conference matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils that caught my eye.

 

Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Buffalo Sabres +127 +150 -1.5 (-175) o6.5 (+100)
New Jersey Devils -156 -175 +1.5 (+129) u6.5 (-120)

 

The Buffalo Sabres started this season a red hot 3-0, before losing to the Boston Bruins last night by a score of 4-1. In that game, the Sabres had plenty of chances but, could not find the back of the net. Craig Anderson, who had played well for them in his first three starts, had his worst outing finishing the game with a -0.69 GSAx. This team looks completely revitalized under Don Granato but, will face their first back to back game of the season. I doubt Anderson will start tonight, so it looks as though Dustin Tokarski will get the start in net. Tokarski only started one game this year where he faced the Arizona Coyotes finishing the game with a 0.92 GAA and a 0.02 GSAx. In addition to Buffalo’s first back to back game, this will be their first away game.

The New Jersey Devils are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday. Scott Wedgewood will mostly get the nod tomorrow, as Jonathan Bernier is questionable. Wedgewood has a -0.7 GSAx from his lone start this season. Jack Hughes is out for Devils tomorrow, but they may get Ty Smith back as has been upgraded to probable.

 

PICK: BUFFALO SABRES +150

The Sabres enter this game with a xGoals of 63.43% while the Devils have an xGoals % of 54.55%. Losing Jack Hughes will certainly not help that percentage either. The Sabres will also have the goalie advantage here if Tokarski and Wedgewood go. Overall, the Sabres have a better Corsi % and Fenwick % so at + odds, they have some value here.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday CFB Power Play + DOG OF THE YEAR info

Huge Saturday card up with College 100% Dog of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Blowout, Early 5* And 2 More best bets. There is also an Undefeated Early season NBA Play and Game 6 Historical LCS System and soccer. Comp Play below.
 
The College Football comp play for Saturday is on Wyoming at 3:30 eastern. Wyoming is 5-1 ats off a loss and has covered 5 of 7 at home. They should coast here against a New Mexico team that fits a powerful play against system pertaining to road teams off 3 or more losses in game eight vs a team off a spread loss. New Mexico has failed to cover 13 of 16 on the road, 6 straight off a 10+ point spread loss, 41 of 51 after allowing over 450 yards and the last 4 vs a winning team. Look for Wyoming to get the cover here. Big Saturday up with CFB Dog of the year, Executive Level TIER 1 Blowout headlining along with Game 6 LCS in Bases and NBA Early Season Dominator System and red hot soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash our all day and night. For the Comp play go with the Cowboys. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

NFL Week 7 Sharp Money

As of Wednesday Afternoon 10/20/21

Sharp Money On:

  • Broncos +5 to +2 at Cleveland – 50% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Washington +10 to +8.5 at the Packers- 46% tickets and 61% of the money.
  • Eagles +3.5 to +3 at the Raiders – 46% tickets and 68% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Washington vs Green Bay over 47.5 to 48.5 – 75% tickets and 89% of the money.