We’ve started out the NBA season WHITE HOT, going 10-1 so far for +17.8 units. Sign up for my premium plays by clicking the below link and make sure to follow me on Twitter and on my BetUS shows for more NBA angles! Today I’m giving out these two picks below, both of which are premium, for free! Let’s go!
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 10-1, +17.8 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
Pelicans +7 (-115), 2 units: If you can only get this number at 6.5, I still like it. The Pelicans played hard on Wednesday against the 76ers, but that just wasn’t a great spot for New Orleans against a Sixers team no doubt ultra-motivated after all the Ben Simmons nonsense. Philly shut down New Orleans in the 2nd half, limiting the Zion-less home team to only 44 points. While it wasn’t the Pelicans’ best look, I was impressed by their effort in the 1st half. New Orleans shot 43.3% from beyond the arc in that contest (Philly shot 52% from 3 point land, which is absurd) and they kept the game close until the 3rd quarter. Newly signed center Jonas Valanciunas didn’t have a great debut, shooting a putrid 3-19 for only 9 points, though he did snag 12 rebounds. I expect better things tonight against the Bulls, who already suffer from bad defense and below-average rim protection. Chicago won, and covered, but they were lucky to do both in their opening game. Zach LaVine had a great game, going 11-17 for 34 points, but the rest of the roster looked clumsy and out of sync. I don’t think the Bulls deserve a line this big just yet, especially after they barely out-played the lowly, talent-poor Pistons and got away with a win. Give me the points with the Pelicans in a good spot, motivated to not go 0-2, for 2 units.
Rockets/Thunder under 221.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a pretty simple handicap. Coach Silas and the Rockets’ front office made it clear this offseason– they’re building around their defense. Meanwhile they have one of the poorest rosters in the NBA from an offensive perspective, although maybe not as poor as the bottom-feeding Thunder. Oklahoma City got trounced by the Jazz in their opener, that’s nothing new, in a game where they only scored 86 points. I’m not sure why this total is set above 220, maybe it’s because of how fast Houston attempted to play Wednesday, but this number feels very inflated. I make this total closer to 205 (and that’s assuming that both of these teams experience some positive regression when they have the ball). Until proven otherwise, I’m going to keep playing unders on both of these teams, especially when they’re matched up against bad offenses or good defenses. Last year the Rockets were 27th in offensive efficiency and OKC was dead last in the association– I don’t think much has changed. I’ll take the under.
Heading out to Vegas this weekend for the Eagles game. However, I will not be attending the game in the stadium. Will be watching via poolside from a cabana and couldn’t be anymore AMPED! Will not really have time to write anything while there, so here are my 3 FREE PICKS this weekend into MNF:
Current NFL Season Record: 61-30 (67%), +37 units
Nyj +7 (-118) 1 unit:
As we all know the Jets got absolutely ROLLED the first time they met the Pats this season 25-6. Zach Wilson’s second NFL start against the rookie Qb killer coach Bill Belichick. It did not go well for him, trying to do too much, forcing throws, and leading to 4 ints on the day. This gave the Pats short fields and Mac Jones only had to manage the game. Going 22/30 186 0 tds 0 ints, not exactly lighting it up.
Now let’s fast forward to this week 7 match up. Zach Wilson has started to settle in, got his first win under his belt, and played well traveling to London. Coming off a bye week and having film on how the Pats played them in week 2, we will not see the same type of performance from Wilson. He will be more polished and is smart enough to not make the same mistakes twice. Pats have been in so many close games playing very well against their competition; giving everything they can week in and week out. At some point this can deflate a team when they aren’t being rewarded on the back end for their efforts. Based on bet percentages ATS I am seeing 80% on the pats and getting that 7 points makes me want to fade the majority. I like the Jets +7.
Phi +3 (-119) 1 unit:
It’s Vegas baby! Flashing lights, cards are flying, chips are stacking, and the Birds are covering.
I am not sure if this is a trend or not, but for some reason I absolutely love the Eagles when they are getting +3 on the road. It has panned out well for them against the Falcons and the Panthers. It will continue this weekend, here is why:
The Eagles are absolutely due for these deep ball attempts to start connecting. They have the speed on the outside and have just been slightly off via penalties or under/overthrows by Hurts. This offense can move the ball under Hurts, it just seems they have been doing it more in the 4th qtr rather than the entire game. This is exactly what they will finally give us this week, 4 solid qtrs of offensive production.
The Raiders had a great emotional win last week against the Broncos. After watching the Broncos a little closer last night, I am not so sure that win was exactly that impressive. Granted it was a short week for the Broncos and a lot of injures, but still. Raiders have a solid defensive front that will get after the Qb. However, there will be opportunities where they may over pursue a little too much and Hurts will make them pay with his legs. Raiders are 5-12 ATS last 17 games played in October and 2-6 ATS last 8 games played on Sunday. FLY-EAGLES-FLY +3.
No -5 (-103) 1 unit:
From the looks of what I saw last week against the Steelers, Geno Smith simply can’t throw the ball down field. This is a passing league and going against a Qb in Jameis Winston who is not afraid to air it out does not favor Geno and the Seahawks on MNF. Coming off a win and a bye the Saints are rested and in a good spot to extend their record. Granted the game will be in an electric atmosphere of Seattle, it will quickly deflate by the play of the Saints offense and lack of play/production by Geno. I am looking for the Saints to jump out to a quick double digit lead, Geno throw some picks, and this thing will be over by the end of the 3rd qtr. Saints -5.
Thank you everyone for your support! Best of luck to you all this week!
*Chelsea to WIN & Under 3.5 Goals vs Norwich (-110)
Lost on this exact bet in midweek. Chelsea scored one more goal than I needed when they beat Malmo 4-0. But I’m going with it again because Chelsea hasn’t scored more than three goals in a Premier League game this season. The blues have also only conceded three goals in those eight games played. Norwich is coming off of two 0-0 draws in a row, which proves they at least have the defensive stability to be a Premier League team. They have only conceded more than three goals once this season against an extremely attacking Manchester City side. On the attacking end is the problem for Norwich and against the strongest defensive team in the league, they will look to try and hold on for their third 0-0 result in a row. Chelsea should easily win this match, but with main goal threat, Romelu Lukaku out with an injury, Chelsea could struggle to find the back of the net. (-110)
*Leeds Draw or Win & Over 1.5 Goals vs Wolves (-115)
There’s a reason why Leeds sit at 17th in the table and are favorites against 10th place Wolves. Leeds’ last result was underwhelming, to say the least, but with a team lacking any real depth, missing Raphinha was a very key absence. With the Brazilian set to return to the line-up with much-needed rest, Leeds’ offensive output will be right back on track. Wolves are usually a low-scoring side, but their last two games have both had three and five goals scored, and it’s tough to predict any game with Leeds involved to be low-scoring. I expect Leeds to come out flying and score early which will force the game to open up. Leeds Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals. (-115)
*Manchester United vs Liverpool — BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Arguably the biggest game in all of sports, certainly one of the biggest rivalries ever to grace the footballing world. In Liverpool’s last eight away games they haven’t scored less than three goals in each of those matches. Manchester United on the other hand has only kept one clean sheet in their 12 contests this season. This game screams both teams to score. Manchester United’s last four games have all ended with both teams scoring, with three of those over 2.5 goals. Manchester United will still be without Raphael Varane in the heart of the defense, a key miss for a team struggling to keep clean sheets. When looking at Liverpool’s terrific away goalscoring record and United not keeping a clean sheet at home this season… on paper, this pick should be a lock. (-125)
*Manchester City to WIN & Under 4.5 Goals vs Brighton (-143)
No need to analyze any Manchester City stat because they are Manchester City. Other than conceding two against a top side in Liverpool and three in a thrilling 6-3 Champions League win vs Leipzig, City hasn’t conceded more than one goal this entire calendar year. Manchester City sits first in the league for passes, completed passes, and possession, they will possess the ball for the majority of the game, not allowing Brighton to continuously create quality chances. Brighton actually plays a very similar style to City but in no way can they beat them at their own game. With Man City having the joint-best defensive record and Brighton only having eight goals in as many games, this pick should be safe. Brighton also has an extremely good defensive record, only conceding five goals in eight games this season, good for third-best in the league. This defensive stability Brighton have will make this a lot closer of a game than some may expect and won’t allow City to just rack up the score. (-143)
In addition to these 5 free plays, I also have 7 CFB plays posted for my premium members. I’m 51-39-1(57%), +17.96u in CFB this season. My premium plays have hit at a 64% clip and netted my members +27.07u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Kansas State PK(-110) @ Texas Tech–Sat. 11 AM CT
Kansas State might be off to an 0-3 start in conference play, but they’ve played arguably the 3 best teams in the Big12(OU, ISU, OKST). I still like how the Wildcats are set up on both sides of the ball. QB Skylar Thompson is a 4-year starter who excels in his role as a “game manager”, and that’s all he really needs to do considering he shares the backfield with an elite RB in Deuce Vaughn. This Texas Tech defense has proven the can be vulnerable to dynamic offenses; they gave up 70 points to Texas as well as 52 to TCU. The combination of experience and talent in that K-State backfield should lead to a good day from their offense. Texas Tech is still without Tyler Shough at QB, meaning it will once again be backup Henry Colombi behind center for the Red Raiders. Colombi is serviceable, and he is helped out by the fact they have started to commit to the running game, but I don’t like how Tech matches up with Kansas State’s defense. The Wildcats have one of the best CB units in the conference, meaning that it won’t be easy for Colombi to strike in the vertical passing game. I can’t trust Colombi and this Tech offense to sustain drives and move the chains consistently. Kansas State should start to add some wins with some easier conference games on deck, and that starts on Saturday.
*CFB(1u): Oregon/UCLA 1H UNDER 28(+100)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The Oddsbreakers Podcast”, which was released on Thursday morning. Hear us break this down from 16:53 to 22:10 using the podcast link below.
I didn’t give this out on the podcast, but since we recorded, I’ve decided to go ahead and back Oregon in this matchup. Sorry Kiev, but we’re going head-to-head on this one.
*CFB(1u): Maryland/Minnesota UNDER 55–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Minnesota is about as vanilla of an offense as you’re going to find in College Football. QB Tanner Morgan is attempting less than 20 passes/game because the Gophers are so thin at WR, and the Gophers are now down to their 3rd string RB with Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts out for the season. To add insult to injury, Minnesota runs just 65 plays/game(110th in CFB). Maryland was burned for 66 points in their last game against Ohio State, but against weaker offenses such as West Virginia and Illinois, the Terps have actually proven to be a pretty tough out. Even though they gave up 51 points to Iowa, much of that was due to their offense turning the ball over a whopping 7 times. This won’t be an easy matchup for Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense by any means; Minnesota is allowing just over 15 PPG since their opening week loss to Ohio State. You would think Tagovailoa should come out with a good performance after a BYE week and a few rough games under his belt, but I simply can’t trust that given his past turnovers issues. Minnesota has a solid front 4 to go along with a good secondary. Minnesota is the home team and should be able to dictate the pace of this game, making this total of 55 clearly too high.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Ole Miss -2.5 vs LSU AND Notre Dame -1 vs LSU(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ole Miss enters this game coming off an emotional and physically demanding win at Tennessee last week. QB Matt Corral is not 100%, but I fully expect to see him behind center. This could be considered a let-down spot if we were to completely ignore who the opponent is, but the reality is that, despite LSU’s well-documented issues this season, they are still a brand-name program that is going to get each team’s best effort. I’d worry more about how this Ole Miss offense will stack up if they weren’t so efficient running the football, but because the Rebels deploy a 3-headed attack at RB, Corral won’t be forced to make every play to keep the offense moving. LSU is without their top 2 CB’s and have shown they can be beaten up front; while they did pull off the upset against Florida last week, they still gave up 42 points. LSU QB Max Johnson is without his top WR(Boutte), and while the Tigers have seemed to figure out the running game after a historically bad start to the season, I’m willing to bet they come back down to earth a little bit here. LSU is still a “play against” team in my mind given both their injury and HC situation, so I feel comfortable teasing Ole Miss down to -2.5.
Much like LSU, this USC team is in complete shambles right now. In their 3 losses to Stanford, Oregon State, and Utah, the Trojans have lost by an average of 16 points/game. Even though they are coming off a BYE week, this Trojans team has shown a lack of pride this season and will fold at the first sign of adversity. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has scratched and clawed all year. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic coaching job to get a limited Fighting Irish team as far as he has, and I’m willing to bet we see the offense humming coming off a BYE week. This is expected to be a cold weather game, which obviously favors the Irish over the team from SoCal that is already soft to begin with. It’s very hard for me to envision Notre Dame not pulling this one out.
Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st!
Oregon vs UCLA -1.5 O/U 59
What is Oregon? Are they the team that can beat Ohio State or the team that loses to a banged up Stanford. The answer to that is both but that doesn’t mean that they are better than UCLA. Looking at strength of schedule both are pretty comparable with both teams facing one team in the top 15 in power ratings and EPA Margin while both teams struggled vs Fresno State from the Mountain West. Looking at the metrics, both teams run the ball very well at about 5 – 5.1 yards per rush but UCLA stops the run better allowing 3 yards per rush compared to Oregon’s 3.7. Advantage UCLA. Oregon throws the ball at a nice 8.5 yards per pass attempt while UCLA is at 7.8, however, Oregon’s Pass EPA is 71st while UCLA’s is 33rd. However, UCLA only allows 6.9 yards per passing attempt to Oregon’s 7.5. Oregon’s opponent EPA per pass is much lower being that their defense tightens up more on 3rd and 4th down than UCLA’s had in the past. This is close to a push here. The thing that gets me over the edge is the low spread of -1.5 and the fact that UCLA ranks 35th in explosive plays compared to Oregon ranking 94th. I also like the fact that Chip Kelly still has a chip on his shoulder wanting to beat his former team here. I think that the team rallies around him this game.
UCLA -1.5 – 3 stars
Clemson vs Pittsburgh -3 O/U 48
This game is really about metrics vs Perception. What is Clemson this year? Talentwise, they should be way better than they have been yet they look completely average on paper. We already know that Clemson has lost 2 games but after I saw them compete in the ACC, I am not even sure that the Market has caught up with them. Clemson ranks 2nd to last which is 129th in ATS Margin at -11.8 per game. That means the line has not been set and bet correctly on them all year long. In saying that, Pittsburgh is number 1 in ATS margin at +12.8 meaning the market has been way too low on this team. Metrically, Pittsburgh blows Clemson away in EPA margin ranking 10th to Clemson’s 87th. Both teams stop the run well allowing 3.1 yards per rush yet Clemson is a bit better against the pass. Too bad DJ Uiagalelei can’t really throw the ball. From a passing perspective it isn’t even close, Pittsburgh averages 9.6 yards per pass to Clemson’s 5.7. The Panthers also have a big 1.28 net yard per play advantage over the Tigers. The thing that gives me pause in this game is that we haven’t seen Clemson as a dog in the ACC in a very very log time. Since 2012, Clemson has only been a dog 12 times and they are 12-5 ATS in that position. What puts me over the edge is that this is the F-you game for Pittsburgh here. I can’t remember the last time Pittsburgh had the chance to win this game and this is the spot where they can get all that sweet sweet redemption against a very venerable offense. Brett Venables is also been Brett Venerable lately on defense. My power number is -3 but my metrics show Pittsburgh winning 24-17. I am taking Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh -3 – 2.5 stars
Ohio State vs Indiana -21 O/U 60
This is an interesting spot for Ohio State because they have been rolling since that debacle at home vs Oregon. Their defense has greatly improved and QB CJ Stroud is starting to put up Justin Fields type numbers. Metrically speaking, Ohio State has all the advantages in offensive rushing, passing and defensive rushing but a good margin except for the fact that Indiana shows a little better against the pass at least in yards per attempt. Now what I will say for the sake of Indiana here is that their schedule has been absolutely brutal facing Iowa, Penn State, Cincinnati and Michigan State. Don’t forget that Western Kentucky isn’t a bad team at all either. Ohio State, since the Oregon game, has faced absolute garbage and their stats have been padded because of it. Now we don’t know who is quarterbacking for Indiana here but it isn’t a big drop-off going from Michael Penix to Jack Tuttle and this Indiana team played very well with Ohio State last year. Ohio State could be a little flat in this spot if they get caught looking ahead to Penn State this but at the same time, my number on this game is Ohio State -18. I am going to be a player on Indiana when this number gets past 21 so wait it out if it isn’t.
First, I wanted to give a brief overview of how I allocate units and what I intend for you when I assign 1-5 stars to plays.
If I say, for example, that I like the 76ers at +3 for 2 stars ** at a VIG of -110, that means I’m putting enough money on that bet to WIN 2 units. If 1 unit is $100, I would need to put $220 to win $200 on that bet. If I win, I win an even 2 units. If I lose, I’d have to subtract by the decimal point of what I lost (2.2 units in the above case).
Conversely, if I say I like Utah State (+130) for 2 units, you would only have to lay 1.54 units to win 2 units, or $154 to win $200 if your unit size is $100.
I hope this makes sense and lmk if you have any questions!
Another great night Thursday! 2-0 in the NBA and our DEN/CLE under pick hit!
NBA Picks, 10.22:
Pelicans +7 ** (The Bulls are overrated at this point and although they won and covered 2 nights ago, they were very fortunate to do so. The Pelicans played hard against Philly and will be motivated to not go 0-2, even without Zion. I like the addition of Valanciunas and expect a much better offensive performance from him tonight)
Thunder/Rockets under 223 ** (The Rockets are building a culture of defensive prowess, and both of these rosters are among the most talent-poor on the offensive side. This line is dropping! Snag it at anything under 220)
*CFB(1.5u): Kansas State/Texas Tech UNDER 60.5–Sat. 11 AM CT
Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in all of college football(59), which limits their possessions as well as their opponents’. While the Wildcat defense has allowed 35 PPG over their last 2 games against Oklahoma and Iowa State, it has taken uber-efficient performances from each of their opponents to have that kind of success. Texas Tech is still stuck playing their backup QB Henry Colombi; aside from the occasional connection on a deep throw, he doesn’t provide the same type of threat that K-State has been accustomed to this season. The Red Raiders are starting to rely more on their ground game with RB SaRodorick Thompson back healthy; running just 68.5 plays/game, this Tech offense doesn’t fit the up-tempo, high-flying stereotype that is typically applied to them. As long as Kansas State can limit the breakaway runs from Thompson, they should limit Tech’s explosiveness through the air given they have one of the better CB combos in the Big 12. Texas Tech has struggled with dynamic offenses like Texas and TCU this season, but against more mediocre offenses(Houston, West Virginia, etc.), they’ve actually held up pretty well. The Red Raiders’ strength on D is in their LB room, which should set them up well to contain the threat of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. Wildcat QB Skylar Thompson is much more of a game manager and isn’t going to be asked to throw the ball all over the yard. Given the lack of possessions each team expects to receive as well as how these teams match up, this total just above 60 is far too high.
*CFB(1.5u): Pitt -3 vs Clemson–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The OddsBreakers Podcast”, which aired Thursday morning. Thankfully, this line hasn’t moved since we recorded. Catch our breakdown from 22:12 to 29:59 using the podcast link below; me and Kiev are both in agreement that Pitt is the right side.
*CFB(1u): Florida State -35.5 vs UMASS–Sat. 11 AM CT
Is Florida State a particularly good football team? No. Is there any reason they shouldn’t win this game by 50? Also no. UMASS is a bottom dweller in the FBS, which can best be confirmed by the fact that they were tied with UCONN heading into the 4th quarter of their last game. Florida State stumbled out of the gates to an 0-4 start, but they’ve seemed to turn a corner coming off 2 straight wins against Syracuse and North Carolina. Rarely would I ever lay over 5 TD’s with a 2-4 team, but that should tell you how confident I am that the ‘Noles win by half-a-hundred tomorrow.
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss -8.5 vs LSU–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
LSU completed one of the weirder upsets I’ve ever seen when they beat Florida last week. Coming off 2 straight demoralizing losses to Auburn and Kentucky that sealed Coach O’s fate, the Tigers looked like an inspired group last week. That’s great and all, but it still wasn’t good enough to save their HC’s job; it was announced a day after their win that Orgeron would be gone after the season. I certainly don’t think that dynamic helps entering this matchup, but aside from playing psychologist, the Tigers simply don’t match up well with this Ole Miss team. Without their top 2 CB’s, this LSU defense is going to have a tough time dealing with what is arguably the best offense in College Football. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is terrific as both a runner and passer, but what really makes the Rebel offense go is their 3-headed RB-by-committee approach. The Rebs have totally bullied teams in the run game this season, rushing for 263 yards/game(good for 7th in CFB). If the Rebs can get things clicking early on offense, this LSU defense has proven to lay down and quit once they’re down(see the Kentucky game 2 weeks ago). While the Tigers’ run game was historically bad for most of the season, I’ll concede that they’ve seemed to figure things out over the last 2 weeks. This Ole Miss defense could be tired coming off a high-paced game at Tennessee last week, but they’re a much improved unit that should be able to win up front and get some pressure on the immobile Max Johnson. If Ole Miss gets out to a hot start, I think this should be an easy cover. But, in any case, I think Ole Miss’s offensive explosivity is going to win out and yield a double-digit Rebs victory.
*2 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Iowa State -1 vs Oklahoma State AND Oklahoma State/Iowa State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oklahoma State might be undefeated, but I think they’ll probably finish 3-3 down the stretch. They’ve won a ton of close games and caught some good breaks, but the offense has shown almost no development throughout the course of the season. Mike Gundy is usually a creative play-caller, but because he can’t trust QB Spencer Sanders to take care of the ball, the Cowboys often revert to a predictable run-first offense. Iowa State faced a similar style of offense in Kansas State last week and is set up well at all three levels defensively to shut down what is simply not a good Oklahoma State offense. With that said, I believe Oklahoma State has the best defense in the Big 12. They completely shut down Texas in the second half(the Horns had just 1 yard in the 4Q) and showed sure tackling and physicality up front throughout the game. Iowa State RB Breece Hall is among the best backs in College Football, but I trust Oklahoma State’s solid group of LB’s to contain Hall and put this game on the arm of Brock Purdy. Purdy is a 4th year player who should be able to move the chains, but because the Cyclones don’t have much explosiveness on the outside, he is usually forced to target his TE’s over the middle of the field. While ISU can be pretty efficient, this style of play leads to them running just 67 plays/game(99th in CFB). I’m confident Purdy and the Cyclones get it done, but I also think this is a very low-scoring game where we see each defense take the forefront. I’ll tease Iowa State down to a 1 point favorite and take the Under at an inflated 53.
*CFB(1u): Boston College +5.5 @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT
Boston College took a major hit to their high hopes for this season when QB Phil Jurkovec suffered a season-ending hand injury. Dennis Grosel has had mixed results filling in Jurkovec’s place, which includes both a nice win against Missouri but also a blowout loss last week to NC State in a game they were just 3 point home underdogs. I’m willing to put last week’s result aside and simply acknowledge that Jeff Hafley has proven to be a better HC already in year 2 than Louisville’s Scott Satterfield. The Cardinals’ roster is filled with talent, yet they always seem to find ways to lose games at the end. QB Malik Cunningham is a true dual-threat talent, but I’m not completely sold that he has evaded the turnover issues that have haunted him in the past. Hafley is a defensive-minded HC(was previously the DC at Ohio State), and I’d expect a good gameplan from him and his staff after a disappointing result last week. Louisville has a pretty soft defense, and given BC’s success in the run game this year, this seems like a perfect “get right” spot for the Golden Eagles. I’ll put a standard 1u play on BC +5.5, but I’ll also sprinkle 0.5u on the ML at a valuable +180.
*CFB(0.5u): Boston College ML(+180) @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT
It’s Utah State’s Homecoming game so the crowd should be electric in Logan. In Colorado State, we have a team that hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard. The Rams have been winning with their defense (21st vs Pass YPG/ 16th vs Rush YPG). But the Rams haven’t faced a team able to pass like Utah State can. The Aggies have yet to lead in any 1st half this season, but has been able to comeback in their four wins with their 15th-ranked pass YPG.
USU’s 1H losing trend is worth watching, but the money has been coming in on the Aggies to break that trend, moving that line from +1.5 to +0.5. I’d rather hit the 1H UN 29 because of their slow starts, but it’s not available everywhere. Regardless, I see CSU playing keep away in this one (36th in time of possession), and running the ball as much as possible against the 118th rush defense. With the expectation that the Rams will lean on their defense I like the UNDER here. This total opened 54.5, and the money moved it to 58- past a key number of 57. After watching the Aggies struggle to score against UNLV last week, I have to take the under!
When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been good. 59-51 record thus far. +14.2 Units. 4-0 on Free Late night plays.
Tonight’s play takes us to the Mountain West and the Sports Gambling and Entertainment capital of the world, Las Vegas. San Jose St. is coming to town to take on the UNLV Rebels. San Jose St is a 4 point favorite with the number sitting at 44. San Jose St. enters the game at 3-4 with wins over Southern Utah, Hawaii and New Mexico St. Showing at 2-5 ATS so far this year. UNLV has yet to win a game and is 0-6, but has played 5 straight against very good competition and is 5-1 against the number.
Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard so far as they both are averaging just under 20 PPG. Starting QB Nick Starkel hasn’t played for San Jose State since 9/25 due to an arm injury and is currently not expected to play. That means backup Nick Nash is scheduled to start and he will carry a 56% completion percentage and 5TDs to 2 INTs into this game. They should be able to throw the ball a little, but they will need to improve the rushing attack to pull away in this game. They are averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and 107.9 YPG.
On Defense the Spartans rank 45th overall giving up 350 YPG and 23 PPG. The competition faced hasn’t been the cream of the crop. The best offenses they’ve played are USC at 29th and W. Michigan at 44th. They were very good against the run last week against SDSU, but gave up over 200 yards to Colorado St two weeks ago. With QB injury issues at UNLV stopping the run will be the key for SJSU tonight.
For UNLV the QB question marks are a glaring issue this evening. The man everything thinks of as the starter, Doug Brumfield, has missed the past two games with a back injury, and is day to day. That means on a short week in my mind he isn’t playing. Cam Friel, who has played well as a backup although not efficiently with a 61.6 Completion percentage 1/4 TD/INT injured his knee in 4th quarter last week and has been limited in practice. If he can’t go that leaves Justin Rogers who did not impress and took a sack in 1 of every 4 dropbacks last week or Miami transfer Tate Martell who has also been hurt and probably isn’t fully up to speed on the playbook. Whoever is under center will need the help of RB Charles Williams. If he can keep producing it should open up things for the passing game at least enough to be effective. He is averaging over 100 yards per game and 5.2 YPG. Against Utah St., he had 221 Yards and 3 TDs.
On defense the Rebels have shown some really great improvement over the first half of the year, especially in the trenches against the run. Where they still need work is against the pass as the are allowing a 73% completion percentage up to this point. The Rebels defense has been tested against 5 top 50 offenses thus far and while they have certainly given up their share of points the Spartans are not Iowa State on offense.
Here’s the key things I am looking at when betting this game. Charles Williams is the best offensive player on the field tonight. If he is able to find some room to run again, UNLV will be able to control the clock. Nick Nash has only gotten the Spartans into the end zone on 3 of 27 drives under center during his last two starts. With the total set at only 44 I don’t see anyone running away with game and expect it to stay close throughout. Playing in front of a big crowd at Alleigiant stadium should help the Rebels, as many people who are just visiting checked it out last week and I expect the same again tonight. It should be a Big Pro-Rebel crowd and there’s extra motivation from the new TD Slot Machine. The Rebels have played the much tougher competition so far, and are hungry for that first win. I am going to Ride the Rebels. Playing UNLV +4 (2.5 Units) and Sprinkle
