Along with Handicapping I also enjoy my fair share of DFS line ups in both NFL and NBA. I personally use Fanduel, so adjust accordingly based on your format.
Here we have an extremely interesting DFS single slate line up for tonights TNF match up. This is extremely rare in the sense that salary will be an absolute non-factor. Key things I look for are value players with upside, low draft percentages, and not letting the salary dictate my plays. Too often we feel like we need to have that perfect “$0” left when setting a line up. That doesn’t always translate to the best possible outcome. Set your line up so you are telling a story, how you think the game will go/flow.
Here is my story:
Tonight’s game will be an extremely windy low scoring affair. Both teams will be utilizing their ground game, opening up potential for big downfield plays. With the Broncos linebacking core in shambles I like for D’Ernest Johnson to get to the next level and the Browns leaning on him all night, making him my MVP and an arbitrary one at that. Qb’s are both going to be in play for me tonight especially with the value in Case Keenum at 5K (everyone will roster him I am sure). Looking for them both to be completing high percentage and quick passes, while getting yards scrambling on this windy night. That leaves these high percentage receivers to be both Noah Fant and Jarvis Landry (who should be a go) added to my line up. There is a lot of room for adjusting and tailoring this specific slate, but those are the players I will be eyeing for tonight.
My premium winner on the Coastal Carolina/App State UNDER last night brought my CFB record to 51-38-1, +19.21u on the season. In addition, my premium record moved to 37-20-1, +25.57u. If you’re interested in becoming a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Arkansas State TT UNDER 26.5(-125) vs Louisiana–6:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The Oddsbreakers Podcast” which was released this morning. Check out this game breakdown from 11:48-15:49 using the podcast link below!
Here we have it my first article officially for TheOddsBreakers and Case Keenum’s first start for the 2021 NFL season. This should make for for an exciting adventure for the both of us– here is my pick:
Current NFL Season Record: 60-30 (66%), +36 units
Cle -2 (-104) 1 unit :
As we all know by now both of these teams have had their fair share of injuries with the ladder belonging to the Browns. Key offensive weapons in Mayfield, Chubb, Hunt, and possibly Beckham are a no go for tonights contest. In recent positive news for the Browns it looks like Landry will be a go for tonight.
So now we must ask after all of that, how are the Browns still favored? My answer is I don’t fully believe the falloff is that severe going from Mayfield to Keenum in this particular spot. Let’s not forget Stefanski was Keenum’s Qb coach during his time in Minnesota when they had their run to make it to the NFL Championship game. There is a relationship there, Keenum knows this offense, and is not afraid to step in and execute effectively.
This season the Browns have heavily relied on the run and I think that trend will continue tonight. Even with out the likes of Chubb and Hunt I still like the chances of them being successful with the combination of Johnson and Felton taking their place. Key reasonings Bronco’s linebacking core is completely decimated. If the Browns can establish a solid run game with their offensive line allowing their running backs to get to the next level, I believe they will be able to control this game and allow for more play action potential for Keenum to get the Brown’s passing game going.
Last thought for me, this line just absolutely doesn’t make sense. When have you seen a team lose their starting QB, RB(s), and possibly WR in the same week (a short one at that) and still be favored? Everything inside of me wants to take the easy/possibly obvious way out and take the Broncos. I simply just can’t bring myself too. I really like the narrative that the Browns defense has been getting absolutely decimated the last two weeks and they have to be pissed off and ready to show up tonight. Teddy Bridgewater is not a 100% and I could see Myles Garrett having an absolute MONSTER night. Case Keenum is a competent back up in this league, he knows this offense, the stage is not too big. Browns -2, 1 unit. Good luck everyone.
Another good day in NBA betting has us at 8-1, +14 units to start the season! Here are more for today and NFL picks for this weekend, more NFL TBD:
NBA 10.21:
Hawks -2.5 ** – Hawks fresh off a big year, complete team, healthy, at home, and the Mavs are overrated
Warriors 1Q -1 ** – Warriors should continue to play hot into this game after a great finish against the Lakers. The Clippers could surely keep this game close down the stretch, so I can’t take the full game on either side.
NFL Week 7:
Broncos/Browns under 42.5 (down to 41, given yesterday) **
Bengals +6.5 or 7 ***
Panthers -2.5 or -3 ** (watch for Toney and Saquon’s status. If they play, this is only a 1 unit bet)
A brief summary before we look at what the market looks like for NFL Week 7. Let’s look at what the market did last week. In my last report, we looked last Wednesday at the spreads and totals market. As of Sunday the market moved on many games and totals.
In case you’re wondering… here’s last Wednesday’s chart I made, with a typo on New England game (can’t figure out which game those numbers were actually from, sorry about that). It was late and I was getting a little “tired and emotional” when I wrote that, that’s an English term, look it up. This chart outlines the percentage of tickets vs. money and the difference between the two. Then, the chart lists if the money difference was correct, then if the popular tickets actually won. All numbers are based on what I pulled off of “Wagertalk Live Odds” screen (the most accurate I’ve found). As of last Sunday… for the spreads…
TEAM
TIX %
MONEY %
$ Diff.
$ MOVE ?
TIX?
LAR
73%
93%
20%
Y
Y
HOU
63%
82%
19%
N
N
PIT
67%
81%
14%
N
N
CLE
63%
74%
11%
N
N
BUF
84%
93%
9%
N
N
NE
79%
87%
8%
N
Y
KC
79%
86%
7%
Y
Y
DET
64%
68%
4%
N
N
MIN
52%
54%
2%
Y
Y
LAC
96%
98%
2%
N
N
JAX
51%
51%
0%
Y
Y
GB
69%
69%
0%
Y
Y
DEN
71%
52%
-19%
Y
N
DAL
71%
51%
-20%
N
Y
And Monday, Spreads… post-Week 6, if you were curious about the final market numbers…
TEAM
TIX %
$ %
$ Diff.
$ Diff ?
TIX ?
LVR
58%
80%
22%
Y
Y
HOU
53%
73%
20%
N
N
DET
63%
67%
4%
N
N
MIA
50%
53%
3%
N
Y
LAC
55%
56%
1%
N
N
LAR
75%
76%
1%
Y
Y
MIN
53%
53%
0%
Y
Y
DAL
64%
63%
-1%
N
Y
PIT
66%
65%
-1%
Y
N
GB
64%
60%
-4%
N
Y
BUF
62%
56%
-6%
Y
N
CLE
63%
56%
-7%
Y
N
KC
81%
72%
-9%
N
Y
TB
65%
52%
-13%
Y
N
Different buybacks on different games but the results were actually the same. The Wednesday/ early week (“Sharp”) money went 6-8 on the week and the popular (“Public”) money didn’t do much better only going 7-7. The buybacks by the end of the week only resulted with one more win for the money (Sharp) differences, taking them to 7-7 on the week. The buybacks could be the influence of larger public money coming in on Game Day, with more states legalizing. That’s something I’m trying to differentiate.
I’ve been hearing that because a lot of the favorites covered, the public must have killed it. I don’t know about that. Not according to these numbers. The public only did one game better. Sports gambling is not easy, for the Pros or Joes, either way, it’s fun to follow. I could post the normally sharper Totals market, but it shows the same. No doubt, Week 6 was not a great week for the Sharps.
Week 7 Market
Now, for the upcoming NFL Week 7, a summary of what the market looks like of late Wednesday for those who like charts and numbers…
SPREADS…
TEAM
TIX %
MONEY %
$ Diff. %
DET
59%
79%
20%
PHI
57%
72%
15%
NYG
52%
65%
13%
GB
50%
61%
11%
DEN
67%
74%
7%
NE
83%
89%
6%
IND
57%
63%
6%
ATL
50%
50%
0%
NOR
56%
56%
0%
KC
66%
61%
-5%
HOU
75%
70%
-5%
TB
62%
55%
-7%
CIN
61%
50%
-11%
TOTALS…
GAME
TIX %
MONEY %
$ Diff.
HOU/ ARI
U58%
U89%
31%
CIN/ BAL
O60%
O90%
30%
WAS/GB
U55%
O72%
17%
CHI/ TB
U65%
O51%
16%
DET/ LAR
O85%
O99%
14%
IND/ SF
U61%
U73%
12%
KC/ TEN
O72%
O83%
11%
PHI/ LVR
O85%
O88%
3%
NOR/ SEA
U96%
U99%
3%
CAR/ NYG
U100%
U100%
0%
ATL/ MIA
U86%
U84%
-2%
DEN/ CLE
U61%
O52%
-13%
NYJ/ NE
U95%
U72%
-23%
Remember, the market is not always correct. This is how casinos are built. Best to make your own power ratings, or find power ratings. If you don’t have any, I can make mine available. I have preferences to how I make my lines that uses a variety of factors. But generally, I compare my lines to the markets and if both match- it works out the majority of times! Of course, sports are random and 53% or more are very good seasons. Best of luck in Week 7!
Follow more of my plays on Action Network App (although that app is frustrating at times) at kris_lundborg and Patreon is coming by college basketball season for those interested. Either way, let’s make some money and have some fun!!!
We have a great show for you today! Our very own Michael Fordham @FordhamGambling from TheOddsBreakers.com comes on to help us break down some College Football and NFL games for the weekend! First, Kiev and Michael discuss what got him into the wonderful world of sports betting and what style of a bettor that he is. Next, Michael and Kiev discuss 4 huge college football games for the weekend with some leans and plays. Then, the guys discuss the FULL slate of NFL games with some more FREE PICKS for NFL week 7. Then, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that is only 2-3 so far. Next, Kiev talks about sharp money for the football games this weekend. Finally, Kiev gives out a free UFC on ESPN play for Saturday night!
NFL: Cincinnati vs Baltimore – Detroit vs LA Rams and more!
NCAA: Oregon vs UCLA – Pittsburgh vs Clemson – Ohio State vs Indiana and more!
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Another week, another NFL ATS breakdown and right now, I dare you to find anyone who’s doing it better! Circa Picks are 17-2-1 the last 4 weeks!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
*CFB(1.5u): Coastal Carolina/App State UNDER 61.5(-110)–6:30 PM CT
#14 Coastal Carolina has jumped out to a fast 6-0 start without really being challenged at all. Seriously, their schedule to this point is as follows: Citadel, Kansas, @ Buffalo, UMASS, ULM, @ Arkansas State. Their 5 FBS opponents have a combined record of 9-22 and include some of the worst teams in CFB. I’m not all that high on App State, but they will present the toughest test to the Chanticleers by far. Coastal implements a spread option attack offensively that is predicated on a strong running game, but QB Grayson McCall has been uber-efficient this season(80% completion, 13.6 Y/A). The Chants run less than 65 plays/game, which ranks among the lowest in the country. App State gave up 41 to Louisiana in a blowout loss, but prior to that game they were giving up just 20 PPG. Back at home in a major conference matchup, I’d expect the Mountaineers defense to buck up and give the Coastal offense a challenge they haven’t received all season. While I expect the Chants to have a relatively tough time offensively tonight, their defense is filled with experience and has been totally dominant this season(allowing 15 PPG). App State QB Chase Brice is simply not a very good QB; he finished 15/27 with just 135 yards and 2 INT’s in last week’s loss at Louisiana. While the Mountaineers will likely try to lean on their run game more than usual tonight, Coastal is loaded in the front 7 and particularly at LB, meaning the App State RB’s will have a difficult time breaking off explosive runs. This total is considerably high for my liking, and with the context of this high-stakes conference game considered, I’m going heavy on this Under.
One more thing — CC/App State game is up to 61 on the total. I’d decrease that to one unit if you didn’t get 59. It’s a 2 unit play at 59 going over. Thanks,
Hump Day Card has the College Football Game Of The Week, Champions League Soccer Total, 100% MLB Totals System and Opening Game NBA Power System Play in Late Action. Comp Play below
The NBA Comp Play is on Chicago at 7:10 eastern. The Bulls were 4-0 in the preseason and have controlled the series with Detroit winning and covering the last 7. In fact the winning team in the series has covered 22 of 23. Chicago had covered the last 4 as a favorite and 7 of 9 as a road favorite. The Pistons are working in new young players and wont have Cade Cunningham in this one., They had failed to cover the last 4 as a home dog. Look for the Bulls to get the over here. On Wednesday A huge card is up with Early Champions League Top Play total, the ML;B Game 4 Perfect Totals System, NBA Late night Game 1 Power System play and the College Football Sun Belt Conference System Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we look for another big day. For the NBA Comp Play. Play on Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
