Pittsburgh out-gained Miami 587 to 490 yet lost 38-14. A 2-1 turnover ratio and 4 sacks killed them.
Michigan out-gained Michigan State 552 to 395 yet lost 37-33. Equal turnovers but bad field position on those turnovers really had the effect for Michigan.
Buffalo out-gained Bowling Green 499 to 484 yet lost 56-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down converstions got them.
Rice out-gained North Texas 368 to 314 yet lost 30-24. A 2-0 turnover ratio got them
Arizona State’s yards were garbage time.
Nebraska out-gained Purdue 399-349 yet lost 28-23. A 4-0 turnover ratio. What else is new?
Louisiana Tech out-gained Old Dominion 335 to 311 yet lost 23-20. They also won turnover battle 0-2 but lack of explosiveness and 3rd down efficiency got them.
Wyoming’s yards were garbage time.
Georgia Southern out-gained Georgia State 486 to 378 yet lost 21-14. A 2-0 turnover ratio with an option team got them. Bad 4th down as well.
UTEP out-gained Florida Atlantic 437 to 279 yet lost 28-25. A 2-0 turnover ratio got them with horrible 3rd down converstions.
Louisville out-gained NC State 434 to 361 yet lost 28-13. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad 3rd down efficiency. Predictable plays
North Carolina out-gained Notre Dame 564 to 523 yet lost 44-34. 1-0 turnover ratio and penalties got them.
While I believe the Pacers are better than their 2-6 record would indicate, they should not be laying points in this spot. If Knicks HC Tom Thibodeau has taught us one thing, it’s that he isn’t going to take any regular season game for granted. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Knicks coming off a home loss to an inferior Raptors team; the Knicks should be hungry to avenge that loss tonight. We’re going to see Indiana turn a corner at some point this season, but they are still adapting to Rick Carlisle as HC in his first year in Indiana. G Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for tonight; they would need Brogdon at full strength for me to not be on the Knicks. Give me the most profitable team in the NBA over the past year catching a point on the road.
We lost on the Nuggets ML against this same Grizzlies team, but I’m hopping on them HEAVY tonight. One of my favorite angles in the NBA is backing a team that lost the first game of a double-header with the same opponent. That becomes even more true when the team that lost the first game of the doubleheader is the better basketball team. The Nuggets went just 9/38(24%) from deep on Monday night, but they have built a good enough reputation(3rd in FG % this season) to where I can trust them in this favorable bounce back spot. We see teams DOMINATE in this spot; frankly, I’m expecting an easy win from a playoff-bound Denver team.
Hell of a night! We went 4-0 across 3 different sports– hard to beat that! Let’s get some more and happy Wednesday, team! P.S.– NFL/CFB picks incoming the next 2 days.
We were so close to getting back to back winners as Patrick Reed finished T2 in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Reed made a late push Sunday finishing with a 65 and just one shot back of the winner Lucas Herbert. The PGA Tour continues it’s international stretch as we had to Mexico for the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
With just two events left in the PGA Tour 2021 season we have some big names entering this field looking to grab some FedEx Cup points. The field is headlined by Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka who return to action since the CJ Cup. Viktor Hovland will look to defend his title here as he won the Mayakoba Golf Classic last year with a -20. Patrick Reed is also in the field and looks to have returned to form given his performance last week. Carlos Ortiz and Abraham Ancer are natives of Mexico and will play in front of a home crowd. We saw how much the home crowd matter earlier this year when Hideki Matsuyama won the Zozo Championship in Japan. This should be a great tournament this week with one of the best fields this tournament has ever seen.
Tournament Information:
Dates: November 4th, 2021- November 7th, 2021
Location: Playa Carmen, Mexico
Course: El Camaleon GC at the Mayakoba Resort
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,017 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
Fairways: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum
Rough: Sea Isle 1 Paspalum 2″
Stimpmeter: 11 feet
Purse: $7,200,000 / Winner $1.296 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: A lot
Water Hazards: A lot (canals run through course, holes border ocean)
Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
2020: 69.77 (-1.23)
2019: 70.09 (-0.91)
Course History:
In 2007, El Camaleon became the home of the Mayakoba Golf Classic, the first PGA Tour event to ever be held outside the US and Canada. The first six editions of this event were played in February however, in 2013, the event moved to November where it has remained. World Wide Technology will sponsor this event for the first time and retain rights until 2027. Even with WWT taking over the event, the 7.2 million dollar purse will remain unchanged. This event offers a full 500 FedEx Cup points and a Master’s invitation. Another interesting aspect of the tournament is that four additional sponsor exemptions are designated for players of Spanish or Mexican heritage from Latin America, South America, Spain, or Mexico.
El Camaleon is another coastal course that is relatively short but, will punish players off the tee they miss the fairway. The course is lined with thick woods throughout the course so ball striking off the tee will placed at a premium this week. Hence, why driving accuracy has been such a key statistic of success on this course. In addition to the woods/ jungle surrounding most holes, the course also features a lot of water. The water hazards do not necessarily come into play every hole but, a miss right or left can mean trouble. Most holes also have bunkers surrounding the greens which again will mean approach shots need to be on. The wind we saw last week in Bermuda won’t be as bad but, it will need to be considered on holes that border the ocean. Given the previous winners scores, players will need to take advantage of every birdie opportunity. The three Par 5’s on the course are relatively long so going for them in two might not be an option for every player. The four Par 3’s all play 200 yards or less which should present some birdie looks. Overall this a short course that requires great tee shots to set up players with solid looks at the pin on their approach shots.
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 78 F, 10 mp/h N, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Driving Accuracy Percentage
Strokes Gained: Approach
Stokes Gained: Putting (Paspalum)
Strokes Gained: Total (Moderate Winds)
Greens in Regulation Percentage
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
Price: 22-1
2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
Price: 120-1
2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
Price: 60-1
2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
Price: 70-1
2016: Pat Perez (-21)
Price: 125-1
Picks (Outright):
Before I get into picks, just an interesting stat. The past five winners dating back to 2016 have either missed the cut in the year prior or it was their first start in the tournament.
If you’re looking to shop around for the best odds this week, check out the following link.
Aaron Wise (+3500) – Caesars
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
If you have not been following golf, Aaron Wise has been one of the players to watch. He enters this tournament in great form. He finished T26 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T8 in the Shriner’s, and T5 at the CJ Cup. Additionally he finished 2nd here so he’s comfortable with the course and putting surface. Wise also performs well in all of the key categories this week. He’s 8th in SG: Tee to Green, 9th in SG: Around the Green and 7th in Greens in Regulation %. To top it all off he’s 9th in Birdie Average and 45th in Driving Accuracy %. Given his form and course history, I like him to capture his first win on Tour since 2018.
Russell Henley (+4200) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.40 Units
Russel Henley fits the mold for this course and previous winners a little too well. He’s currently 1st on Tour in Driving Accuracy %, Greens in Regulation %, SG: Approach the Green, and 4th in SG: Tee to Green. On top of that he’s 9th in Birdie Average which is another key factor this week. He finished T21 in the Shriners and T25 in the CJ Cup at Summit. Another weird aspect is Henley hit fits the mold of previous winners who have missed the cut in this event prior to winning. Like I mentioned before, he seems like the guy to win this thing given his performance this year.
Matthew Wolff (+4500) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
We saw his college teammate Viktor Hovland win this tournament, so who’s to say he can’t do it this year? His major downfall could be his Driving Accuracy % where he ranks 238th on Tour. Overlooking that, he does have some impressive stats this year. He’s 1st on Tour in Driving Distance, 14th in SG: Tee to Green, and 29th in SG: Approach the Green. Additionally he’s 18th in Greens in Regulation % and 9th in Birdie Average. If Wolff can figure out his accuracy off the tee he could win this tournament. He’s been in great form this year finishing 2nd at the Shriner’s and T17 at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Rickie Fowler (+5000) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
This should be interesting… Rickie seems to be in better form as of late given his previous finishes. He finished T44 at the Zozo Championship and T3 at the CJ Cup. Fowler currently ranks 15th on Tour in SG: Tee to Green and 38th in SG: Around the Green. He’s 10th in Driving Distance and 67th in Driving Accuracy %. If his driver is on this week, he should have a shot to win this tournament. In 2020 he missed the cut in the Mayakoba but, finished 2nd in 2017 and 16th in 2018. At 50-1 I think he’s worth a shot here.
Carlos Ortiz (+8000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Carlos Ortiz is a native to Mexico so he’ll be playing in front of friends and family this week. My only concern for him is that he did withdraw from the Zozo Championship due to a shoulder injury. However, if he’s entered this event, he clearly feels like he’s capable of playing. Prior to the Zozo he seemed to be in good form finishing T25 in the CJ Cup and T47 in the Shriner’s. He’s currently 23rd in SG: Approach the Green and 65th in SG: Tee to Green. His approach game has been good this year as he ranks 14th in Greens in Regulation %. Ortiz ranks 74th on Tour for Driving Accuracy % but, will need to improve his putting if he wants to contend. In 2020 he finished 8th in this event and in 2019 he finished second.
Adam Long (+15000) – BetMGM
Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
If we want to talk about a guy who loves this event, its Adam Long. In 2020 he finished 3rd and in 2019 he finished 2nd. While he is very inconsistent, he has been great putting this year ranking 8th in SG: Putting. At 150-1 and given his recent finishes in this tournament, he’s worth a shot.
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.93 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Justin Thomas (+105) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.05 Units
Adam Long (+900) – FanDuel
Risk 0.12 to win 1.08 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 1.12 Units
Total Risk on WWT Championship : 2.05 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
The start to the NHL season has been interesting for sure with tons of upsets and some pre-season Stanley Cup favorites struggling. The Carolina Hurricanes are still undefeated after 8 games with a +21 goal differential. We have 9 games going tonight, but two games in particular caught my eye.
Dallas Stars @ Winnipeg Jets
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Dallas Stars
+215
-115
-1.5 (+220)
o5.5 (-110)
Winnipeg Jets
+155
-105
+1.5 (-260)
u5.5 (-110)
The Winnipeg Jets host the Dallas Stars who have had a lack luster start to the season with a 3-4-1 record. This is mainly due to their offensive struggles up front. They’re currently 31st in the league averaging 1.75 goals per game. Miro Heiskanen, a defenseman, leads the team with 7 points through their first 8 games played.
Despite their offensive woes, they have been solid on the back end. They’re tied for 12th in the league averaging 2.75 goals against per game. Braden Holtby is expected to get the start tonight for Dallas. He has a 2-3 record on the year with a 2.40 GAA, .936 SV%, and a +1.0 GSAx.
Winnipeg seems to have hit their stride after dropping their first two games. They are 4-1 in their last five games, outscoring their opponents 20-11. The Jets now rank 8th in the NHL averaging 3.5 goals per game. Kyle Connor leads the team with 14 points with Pierre-Luc Debois behind him with 10.
Opposite of Dallas, Winnipeg hasn’t been great defensively. They’re allowing an average of 3.25 goals per game and are 31st in the league in Penalty Kill %. Eric Comrie will get his second start of the year tonight. His first start came against the Los Angeles Kings on October 28th where he faced 32 shots, let in 2 goals, and finished the game with a .938 SV%. Comrie currently has a +0.8 GSAx.
PICK: WINNIPEG JETS (-105)
The Jets will be without Marc Scheifele and their starter Connor Hellebuyck tonight. However, I still believe the Jets have a superior lineup. Eric Comrie looked good in this first start, so I’m hoping he’ll continue to play well here. The Stars lack of offensive production worries me against a team that can put up goals. Even though Winnipeg is a slight dog, I like them at home. The Jets are 2-0 at home this year while Dallas is 2-3 on the road.
Nashville Predators @ Calgary Flames
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Nashville Predators
+115
+130
+1.5 (-190)
o5.5 (-105)
Calgary Flames
-167
-150
-1.5 (+165)
u5.5 (-115)
The Nashville Predators have started the season 4-4 and will face a red hot Calgary Flames team tonight. This Predators team will have to rely on their defensive ability to keep them in this game as they are not built to withstand a high scoring game.
The Preds currently rank T16th in the NHL averaging 2.75 goals per game. However, they are 31st in creating high danger scoring chances which is a concern. Roman Josi leads the team with 9 points through their first 8 games.
Nashville’s defense as mentioned before will need to step up tonight. They’ve looked pretty good so far this season giving up an average of 2.75 goals against per game. The Predators have yet to confirm a starting goalie for tonight but, Juuse Saros is expected. Despite his 3-4 record, Saros has played moderately well with a .917 SV% and a +0.8 GSAx.
The Calgary Flames are 6-1-1 and 2nd in the Pacific Division behind the Edmonton Oilers. Calgary is currently on a 6 game win streak after dropping their first two games of the season.
All sides of the puck seem to be clicking for them right now. They rank 5th in the league with 3.63 goals per game. On defense, they rank 2nd only allowing an average of 1.88 goals against per game. Jacob Markstrom has been confirmed the starter tonight. He’s off to a great start on the year with a 4-1 record, 1.33 GAA, .957 SV%, and a +8.0 GSAx!
PICK: CALGARY FLAMES (-150)
The Flames don’t look like they can be stopped right now. They seem to have the advantage over Nashville tonight in every aspect. For a Nashville team that is struggling to score, they’ll face a tough challenge against this Calgary defense. Plus with how well Markstom is playing, I think Calgary gets this win at home. If you’re not comfortable laying the juice, I’d look at Flames to win in regulation around +110/+100.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
The Astros might be back at home in a must-win spot, but there is simply too much value on the Braves tonight for me to lay off. Braves SP Max Fried caught fire towards the end of the season and has gotten in a groove at the right time. With a respectable 3.04 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, I expect Fried to neutralize an Astros lineup that tends to fare better against righties. Astros SP Luis Garcia has been phenomenal at home this season, but this Braves lineup continues to deliver. Since reconfiguring their roster at the Trade Deadline, Atlanta has hit the 2nd most HR’s against righties in the league. Garcia is still young(167 career innings), so I can’t quite trust him in this elimination game for Houston. I don’t have a great feel for either of these bullpens, so I’ll stick with Braves F5 as my play in this game.
Happy Tuesday, everyone (I’ve always hated Tuesdays; there’s absolutely nothing special about them.. although there is MAC-tion tonight)! We continue to grind and continue to win in the NBA. Here’s a free pick for tonight’s small slate:
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%) NBA 21/22 Season: 25-14, +13.78 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
Suns -11.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a big line but this game sets up really well for the Phoenix Suns. Last year’s Western Conference champions have started off a little cold this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re not still every bit as capable of repeating. Continuity is a big issue in the early parts of an NBA season and the Suns are already dealing with a few key injuries on their team– namely a banged up DeAndre Ayton and Cameron Payne.
But something happened 3 nights ago against the Cavs. Good, well-coached teams tend to figure themselves out in bursts and hit a new gear. The Suns went on an incredible 50-12 run against Cleveland on Saturday night and never looked back. Down double-digits early, they eventually won by 9 points at home. The Suns remain at home through this Saturday, welcoming the lowly Rockets on Thursday and then the Hawks on Saturday.
The Pelicans are 1-6 and without their star Zion Williamson, but they’ve been finding ways to keep games close. Tonight that’ll be a harder task. Brandon Ingram is listed as “questionable” Tuesday but by other things I’ve read, it sounds as if he’ll sit. This is a huge downtick in offensive production for New Orleans, and it will leave Jonas Valancuinas as their sole “star” in this contest. The Suns have a top-10 coach in Monty Williams and they should make life real difficult for the Pelicans’ star center, who will likely have a bullseye on him throughout the game. The Pelicans are also in a terrible spot– they’re at the start of a brutal 4 game road stretch and they travel to Sacramento tomorrow night to take on a fiesty Kings team. It doesn’t get much worse than that.
This is a game where the Suns, even with some injuries, should be able to score at will, stifle New Orleans on defense, and run away with a double-digit win. It’s a big line and our number says it’s a little inflated, but the Suns routinely blew out teams last year in similar spots. Unlike other titans of the NBA, Phoenix is not afraid to lay the wood and annihilate a weaker foe. I trust in the Suns to hit a new level tonight and cream the banged up Pels.
