Back in Week 7, I posted two NFL market reports for those who like to follow the markets. First post was with the Wednesday market numbers, and the second with the Saturday night numbers. What do you know, bettors who had their bets in by Wednesday were much more successful.
I could post the charts, but you get the drift. If you don’t follow the market early, I don’t know if it’s worth following. However, markets often times are waiting for injury reports, or this week, the trade deadline!!! Anyways, Week 7 Wednesday showed the majority of tickets (public) on the spread went 8-5. And where there was more money on a side (sharp), that went 8-5 also.
If one waited until Saturday and looked at the market, the majority of tickets ended up going 6-6 and the majority of money went 4-8 on the spread, with heavy public money in by the weekend. So, maybe the sweet spot is Wednesday- Thursday… It’s a good question and something I look at. Regardless, here’s the Tuesday morning NFL market summary! Perhaps you like to get ahead of further moves, or you want to wait it out to hit the other side… This is where the tickets are, where the money is, and the difference between the two. Check it out! For the spreads…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. % |
| CIN | 71% | 54% | -17% |
| ARI | 74% | 65% | -9% |
| LVR | 88% | 87% | -1% |
| BUF | 97% | 99% | 2% |
| BAL | 66% | 70% | 4% |
| NE | 91% | 96% | 5% |
| LAR | 85% | 91% | 6% |
| HOU | 65% | 73% | 8% |
| LAC | 85% | 96% | 11% |
| GB | 77% | 94% | 17% |
| DAL | 75% | 93% | 18% |
| NYJ | 54% | 73% | 19% |
| PIT | 76% | 96% | 20% |
| ATL | 54% | 77% | 23% |
The totals… (where percentages weren’t available I charted the line moves)
| GAME | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. |
| NE/CAR | u100% | u100% | 0% |
| KC/GB | o100% | o100% | 0% |
| CLE/CIN | o76% | o77% | 1% |
| ATL/NOR | u93% | u95% | 2% |
| LAC/PHI | u82% | u93% | 11% |
| HOU/MIA | u67% | o54% | 21% |
| TEN/LAR | o50% | u76% | 26% |
| NYJ/IND | u60% | o97% | 57% |
| Line Move | Open | Consensus | |
| DEN/DAL | 49 | 49.5 | |
| BUF/JAX | 49.5 | 48.5 | |
| ARI/SF | 47 | 46.5 | |
| CHI/PIT | 40 | 40.5 | |
| LVR/NYG | 47.5 | 47.5 | |
| MIN/BAL | 49.5 | 49.5 |
I noticed a money difference with the ARI game. After some digging… Since Kyler Murray has been with the Cardinals, after a home favorite loss ARI is 0-4 ATS. On the road after a home favorite loss, they are 0-2 ATS. Add to that, division revenge for a SF team that’s desperate for wins to stay alive in the NFC West. I’m taking an early position on the home team SF +2.5 and a smaller play on SF ML +122. Can always hedge with any news or change of heart!
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back for some fantasy football while Kiev O’Neil does what he does! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 9 and NFL week 8 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 10 and NFL Week 9. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 10! Then, Dave comes on and the guys talk some Fantasy Football. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev and Dave gives out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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I closed out the month of October with a 2-0, +2.5u Sunday, pushing my October record to 56-34-1, +26.23u. To kick off the month of November, I’m rolling with a lone NBA free play tonight. My premium plays are hitting at a 66% clip(50-25-1) and have netted my members +38.3u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Nuggets ML(-117) @ Grizzlies–7:10 PM CT
The Grizzlies are a fun team to watch, but the Nuggets are a more complete team. Even without star G Jamal Murray, Denver made a deep playoff run last season and looks to be gearing up to do the same this season. C Nikola Jokic and F Michael Porter Jr. get all the attention, but what really makes the Nuggets roster so desirable is all the role pieces around Jokic and Porter(Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Will Barton, etc.). Memphis G Ja Morant is a generational talent, but the pieces around him aren’t established yet. Dillon Brooks is still out with an injury, and I frankly don’t believe the likes of De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane can continue to shoot as efficiently from deep as they have to begin this season. In addition, Morant is less than 100% dealing with an elbow issue and might not be equipped to play “superhero” tonight. I think the Nuggets are the better team at the moment, so I’ll take them on the moneyline tonight.
MNF match up with a TON of speed, dynamic players, and value plays to be had. Currently 1-0 with our single slate DFS articles, let’s keep that momentum up for this final week 8 match up.
There are a ton of routes we can go in this match up. The explosive offense in the Chiefs and the big play ability from specific Giants players, which will leave this slate wide open. It is going to come down to finding that value player with significant upside with minimal usage. Lets find that value:
(per Fanduel, adjust accordingly for your platform)
MVP: A player I like that will consistently get high volume targets is Travis Kelce. Chiefs will move the ball and he is a massive red zone target. If he can get his 10-12 targets combined with a couple touchdowns it may be just what we need to put ourselves in position for a big night. There are so many stars in this game and you have to think Mahomes, Hill, and Jones will have a higher MVP usage rate than Kelce. It is key to set us apart from the Masses. Kelce as our MVP @ $13,500.
First two flex spots: Both Mahomes and Daniel Jones are in play in my first two flex spots. Mahomes is pricey, but if we are relying on Kelce for a big night we should also stack the Qb getting him the ball. Jones is a playmaker for the Giants. Kc defense is weak and he will not only put up numbers with his arm, but his mobile ability is there (as long as he isn’t tripping over his own feet) as well. Mahomes flex @ $17,000 and Jones flex @ $15,000
Last two flex spots: I am hoping for an aerial attack in this match up and a Wr I like with big play potential is Darius Slayton @ $9,000. The Giants are thin at Wr and Slayton had 9 targets last week against the Panthers. I am looking for that high volume to continue with a lower price tag player. This leaves us with $5,500 left to spend and our ultimate huge risk/huge reward value play is Josh Gordon. Yes, I am aware he has only had two targets in his last two games. However, he has the potential to break that one big play to put us over the top. Combine that with a low usage percentage among the field this play could set us up to be in the cash.
NFL
Monday card has the NBA Power System Play of the Week and a 5* Monday night Football System that has hit 36 of 43 times since 1980. NHL Comp Play below.
The NHL Comp play is on the Under 6 goals in the Ottawa at Chicago game at 8:10 eastern.The Blackhawks have scored 3 or less in every game and are 29th in the league in scoring and 22nd in shots on goal. They have an Ottawa team coming in that is ranked 21st in scoring and 36 in shots on goal. The Senators are 4th in the league on Penalty kills an have stayed under in 6 of 7 thus far this season. Look for these two to stay under 6 here tonight. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on tonight, For the NHL Comp Play. Go under 6 in this game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Premium Plays: 49-25-1, +36.8u
*MLB(1.5u): Astros ML(-115) @ Braves–7:15 PM CT
The Astros are now down 3-1 in this series and are now a loss away from having their dreams come crashing down, but I think the postseason experience of this team carries them to a win tonight and brings this series back to Houston. The Braves held the Astros to just 2 runs in Games 3 and 4 combined, but considering what Atlanta will throw out there tonight, I don’t think that success continues. Tucker Davidson will get the start for Atlanta, but the primary pitcher in this game figures to be lefty Drew Smyly. Smyly did pitch well his last time out against the Dodgers, but he carried a 1.37 WHIP in the regular season as well as an abysmal 1.9 HR/9. Safe to say, this is the perfect spot for the Astros to get back on track offensively. Astros SP Framber Valdez was hit around a bit in game 1, but he’s found much more success pitching away from Minute Maid Park this season. The Braves’ offense has been clutch, but they are still plenty beatable. The Astros are willing to max out their bullpen tonight if need be, while the Braves might not be willing to stretch out their late-inning guys needing to win just 1 of the next 3 games. I’m confident this Astros team wins tonight and brings the series back to Houston.
Let’s continue executing the edge today!! We had a clean sweep yesterday in College Football going 6-0 and are 20-5 in our last 25 CFB plays!! I have 3 premium NFL plays today and have 1 of them as a free pick below. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The Chicago Bears host the San Francisco 49ers at Soldier Field this Sunday. The Bears enter with a 3-4 record and have lost their last two games in embarrassing fashion, while the 49ers come in with a 2-4 record and have lost four straight after a promising 2-0 start. Both teams have dealt with injuries, have issues on both sides of the ball, and they’re in a race to keep their postseason hopes alive. The 49ers are averaging 354 yards per game, 5.9 yards per play and 22.5 points per game while the Bears come in putting up just 14.4 points per game after gaining 255 yards and 4.6 yards per play. According to PFF, San Francisco ranks 20th in offense overall and the Bears are the 6th worst offense in the league. Additionally, the Under is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 road games and is 6-0 in Bears last 6 games overall. Both defenses rank in the upper half of the league in yards allowed per game. The 49ers offense has struggled the past 2 weekends and I would expect that to continue. The offensive output wont be enough to go over the total. Look for a 20-13 type game with the 49ers winning the ball game. Take Under 39.5
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You all already got my NFL plays for today — here’s what I like in NBA
