Hell of a night last night! 5-0 start to the NBA season, can’t hate that! Here’s more NBA plays today and a lookahead bet for TNF. As always, let me know if you have any questions — Thanks!
NBA
Bulls -3.5 ** (current line sits at -5, I’d take that for 1 unit, big talent disparity here)
76ers -2.5 or 3 *** (76ers amped to start without Simmons)
Celtics/Knicks under 218 ** (defenses better than offenses, rivalry, game 1 tensions, Knicks and Celtics both under teams last year)
Blazers -5 (given earlier in the week, OFF this play, Kings could be feisty)
Blazers/Kings over 233.5 ** (both last in def eff last year)
NFL
Broncos/Browns under 42.5 ** (rain, wind, two banged up QBs and two teams with exceptional defenses)
After a tough opening day, and a lesson learned, we seem to be back on the right track. The NHL only has two games going tonight, one in the Eastern and one in the Western Conference.
Boston Bruins @ Philadelphia Flyers
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Boston Bruins
-120
-135
-1.5 (+180)
o5.5 (-120)
Philadelphia Flyers
+100
+120
+1.5 (-210)
u5.5 (+100)
The Boston Bruins started the season with a 3-1 victory over the Dallas Stars on October 16th. Jeremy Swayman will start in net vs Philly after winning the season opener. He’s been asked to step up after the Bruins let unrestricted free agent and longtime goalie Tuukka Rask walk this off season. Against Dallas, that’s exactly what he did, he finished the game with a +1.6 GSAx. We’ll see if he can continue to play well in net, against a Philly squad that is averaging 5 goals a game.
Martin Jones will make his Philly debut vs the Bruins tonight. Carter Hart has handled to goaltending duties through the first two games and has played well. Through those first two games, he has a +1.4 GSAx. In their season opener, they lost 5-4 in a SO to Vancouver, then rebounded against the Kraken on Monday to win 6-1.
PICK: BOSTON BRUINS -135
The Bruins looked solid on both sides of the puck in their season opener. Brad Marchand finished the game with 2 goals and a +1.18 xGoals. Overall, the Bruins finished the game with a 2.98-2.60 xGoals advantage behind a solid performance from Swayman. Philly took advantage of an expansion team, that had already played three games before compared to their one. Martin Jones will start in net for the Flyers, after posting a career worst 3.28 GAA last season in San Jose. While he may have something to prove, we saw the Philadelphia defense struggle against a solid offense in the Canucks. Through the first two games, Philadelphia is averaging an xGA of 4.05. I like Boston in this position and with the advantage in net, I’m comfortable laying -135 on the moneyline. Some books are also offering the Bruins at -130, which is added value.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Collin Morikawa made a late Sunday run at his home course to finish one behind Rory McIlroy who captures the title. We now head to Japan for the Zozo Championship in a weaker field that features a similar set up. This week also only has a field of 78 golfers and a no cut format. The 2020 Zozo Championship was played at Sherwood Country Club in Los Angeles last year due to COVID-19 protocols but, is now back in it’s inaugural spot at Narashino Country Club. We’ll scrap the 2020 data from the Zozo Championship, and look at the 2019 Zozo when it was last hosted at this course. One thing to keep in mind, Xander Schauffele recently won a gold for the US Olympic team in Japan a little over two months ago. Xander and Collin are the current favorites to win the tournament at the 6-7/1 range behind Hideki Matsuyama who is from Japan.
Tournament Information:
Dates: October 21, 2021- October 24, 2021
Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,041 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 78 Players | No cut
Greens: : Bentgrass
Fairways: Zoysiagrass
Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
Stimpmeter: 10.5 feet
Purse: $9,950,000 / Winner $1.791 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Water Hazards: : 4
Scoring Average:
2019: 69.53 (-0.48)
Course History:
The inaugural Zozo Championship was played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club back in 2019. However, due to COVID-19 travel protocols the tournament was played at Sherwood Country Club in 2020. Now with reduced travel protocols, the tournament resumes at its original location.
Course Guide:
Looking at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club its a short Par 70 course that features Zoysiagrass fairways and rough. This is a rarity on the PGA Tour that only a select few courses feature including TPC Southwind and East Lake. This course, also features the traditional Japanese set up of dual greens. Narashino Country Club has four Par 3’s, all under 200 yards, with the longest playing 183 (Hole #16). We also only have three Par 5’s this week, all which are relatively long, but should present much needed birdie opportunities as we saw in 2019. The ten Par 4’s are all long, and should be a challenge for most players. They all have tree lined fairways, and reward long hitters off the tee. Even though this course is short, it is a tough course and was one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour in 2019. We may not see another -19 as we did when Tiger won it back then, however, off the tee stokes will still play a huge role in this weeks tournament.
2020 @ Sherwood Country Club: Patrick Cantlay (-23)
Price: 28-1
2019 @ Narashino Country Club : Tiger Woods (-19)
Price: 33-1
Picks (Outright):
Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)- Draftkings
Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
Hideki Matsuyama heads back home to his native country, where he’s recently coming off a T4 finish in the Summer Olympics, which was in Japan. In the 2019 Zozo Championship, which was in Japan at this course, he finished 2nd to Tiger Woods. He’s in decent form as of late with his best finish coming back at the Fortinet Championship, T6, during the fall season. This pick, is mainly looking at his recent form in Japan, against a limited field. Yes, he did lose to Xander in the Olympics, but I can’t pick Xander this week at +700. Even though he thrives in these no cut events, I don’t see him repeating his performance from the Olympics. At 14-1, Hideki has some value here.
Jhonattan Vegas (+3500)- Cesars/ Pointsbet
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
See below for reasoning.
C.T Pan (+4100)- FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
C.T. Pan has actually been in great form as of recent. On top of that, he finished 3rd in the Olympics and clearly feels comfortable on this style of course. His most recent performance was at the Sanderson where he finished T11, and before that, he finished T6 at the Fortinet Championship. This season, he’s 6th in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Approach the Green, and 12th in SG: Putting. At 41-1, in form, and on a style of course he’s excelled at in the recent past, he’s worth a shot here.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.01 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Scott Vincent (+300)- FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 1.50 Units
Shoutout to @GolfKneeknocker on Twitter for this play. Scott Vincent finished T16 in the Olympics, and plays on the Japanese Golf Tour. In his last 8 tournaments on the Japanese Tour, he hasn’t finished worse than T17. During that run, he also won two tournaments including the ANA Open and the Sansan KBC Augusta. Obviously these events have weaken fields but, I’m relying on his familiarity with the Japanese style of courses for this pick.
Total Risk on Top 20: 0.50 Units
Total Risk on Zozo Championship: 1.51 Units
1 & Done Pool:
This is a relatively new venture that I’ve gotten myself into but, I couldn’t love it more. I know these survivor pools are big in the NFL, but in golf it’s completely different. In a upcoming blog, I’ll explain on how to approach the upcoming PGA season with the strategy I use and how to capitalize on certain events. Golf betting can be very profitable if you stick to a model and understand the players itself. It’s not something you can learn overnight but, is relatively easier to pick up on as courses have certain giveaways and, players have strengths.
PICK FOR ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP: JHONATTAN VEGAS
Last weeks pick was Collin Morikawa who finished 2nd, and you may ask, “Hey why did you use such a big name early?” Well, to answer the question, it was his home course, and as I explain later, in loaded fields, you do have to use bigger names. Will I love Collin in a tournament during the spring season? Of course, he’s one of the best, if not the best golfer on the planet currently. However, to get a second place finish out of him, I cant complain.
Moving onto this week, we look at Jhonattan Vegas. We have a limited field, again like the CJ Cup, and I don’t want to use two major names back to back. Hideki is my best bet this week, but, I cant risk giving him up this early. Jhonattan Vegas represented Venezuela in the Summer Olympics earlier this year and finished T16 against a better field. In the recent tournaments, he has also played extremely well in the last few tournaments ranking Top 10 in key categories this week. He most recently finished T14 at the CJ Cup last week, in a limited field and no cut event, I like him to perform well again here. The one and done strategy is trying to give yourself the best chance, but also roster management and finding value in smaller events. The second option this week as C.T. Pan.
Used Golfers:
CJ Cup:
Collin Morikawa 2: $1,053,00
Shriners Children Open:
No Pick: Forgot
Sanderson Farms:
Denny McCarthy T17: $86, 683
Fortinet Championship:
No Pick
Current Position: 7th ($1,139,683), 1st place is at $1,655,669
To follow all my one and done results, check out @ThePluggedLie on Twitter for updates.
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Check out my preview and plays for the games tonight…
Florida Panthers (+100) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
These teams face for the first time since Tampa Bay knocked out the Panthers in the first round of the playoffs last year. During the regular season, Florida had the upper hand and was able to capture the higher seed and home ice advantage. However, the Lightning also got back a few key pieces in the playoffs which propelled them past the Panthers on their way to another Stanley Cup.
The Panthers enter tonight with a 2-0-0 record, and a red hot goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky seems to be on a bit of a revenge tour after being benched during the playoffs last year in favor of Chris Driedger and Spencer Knight. Even with Bobrovsky being the league leading goalie in GSAx with a +6.2, Spencer Knight will get his first start of the season tonight.
The Bolts, will have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net tonight, making his fourth start of the season. Tampa will look to pick up their third win of the season as well tonight, as they enter tonight’s game with a 2-1-0 record. Vasilevskiy hasn’t been in Conn Smythe form this season with a -0.4 GSAx. The Lightning, also lost a key player in Nikita Kucherov as he left Saturday’s OT win over Washington with an undisclosed injury. Kucherov was off to a great start with 4 points through three games and a +1.2 expected goals. The initial report is that he’ll miss a significant amount of time for a second straight season.
Pick: Florida Panthers (+100)
Even with Spencer Knight making his first start of the season, I still like Florida here. He played well against Tampa last year. The Lightning look to be slow and not fully in form yet. At + money, this play has some value for me as I see this more of a 50-50 game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Check out our LIVE NFL ATS Breakdown show tomorrow on Twitter at 7pm!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
I’m not a big futures guy, but we can all admit, futures are fun. Personally, I commit about 5-10% of my bankroll to futures, depending on what I like coming into the season. If there’s not a ton I really like, I’ll throw some beer bets just for fun. The NBA is where I have had the most success in the futures market over the years, so I’ll share a few futures that I took coming into the NBA season…
AWARDS
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
One of my favorite futures this year, I like Terrance Mann (+3300) of the Clippers to take the Sixth Man of the Year. We all saw how Terrance Mann stepped up last year in the playoffs coming off the bench and really owned his role when Kawhi Leonard was banged up. I like the Clippers to do well in the West this year and Mann is a huge part of that story. The Florida State product is a complete player whose defense and effort does nothing but create opportunities. He will see significantly more playing time this season after last year.
Brooklyn made great move by picking up Patty Mills (+750) in the offseason, and he comes into the season riding high off of his awesome performance in the Olympics for Australia. A solid all around player, I wouldn’t be surprised if voters want to root for the 11-year veteran who’s on a team that should get far in the postseason.
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER
With Demar Derozan in Chicago, San Antonio’s success is squarely on Dejounte Murray (+1600). His numbers should increase even more than his breakout season last year. And of course, I love guys that play defense to create more opportunities for themselves.
Lonzo Ball (+3300) looks like his shot has only gotten better since his arrival in Chicago. His long range improvement is noticeable, and if the Bulls do squeak into the playoffs, it will be because Ball finally looks like a well rounded player.
COACH OF THE YEAR
Nate McMillan (+1600) could get a make up election as Coach of the Year after catapulting the Hawks deep into the postseason last year. His coaching style clearly fit well with an offensively minded roster, the Hawks should be competitive once again.
Monty Williams (+1400) is in the same boat as McMillan, in line to be a make up choice for voters. After the Suns unbelievable run, his tenure in Phoenix is solidified. He clearly made the most of his roster in the tough Western Conference.
Every year in the NBA, it does seem like there is one team from each conference that exceeds expectation. In the East, the buzz is all about the Bulls. Billy Donovan(+1200), who has had success in the Pros and college, would be sure to get the credit.
My sleeper team in the East is the Pacers though. I like the addition of a proven Coach, Rick Carlisle (+1400), who was smart enough to get the hell out of Dallas and the Doncic takeover of that organization. If the Pacers can stay healthy, I like the Pacers’ roster to put themselves ahead of the Knicks, Bulls, and Hornets who seem to be getting the Underdog buzz so far.
Correlated with my higher opinion of the Pacers, I also like Myles Turner (+900) for Defensive Player of the Year, who has led the league in blocks a couple of years but is injury prone. Outside of Giannis to win, I think the media has worn on Rudy Gobert and are looking to give it to someone else. Good luck and have fun!
