This game to me is really a no brainer. I am not sure what Miami’s thoughts are after losing at home to Atlanta but they must not be real positive. Some might think that this is a revenge spot for Miami after getting blown out 35-0 but if you look at the history between these teams, the is game was only close 1 time in their last 6 matchups. Buffalo has won by double digits 5 out of the last 6 times. Looking at the metrics, it isn’t even close and the fact that Buffalo is coming off a loss and a bye week gives them more time to prep for their next victim. Buffalo is a team that beats up on the bad teams and the numbers show it being that they are 5-0 ATS over their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. My number have Buffalo winning this game 35 to 17 and that’s being nice. I must say that I rarely lay over 7 points in the NFL but this situation calls for it.
Buffalo – 13.5 – 2 stars
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans +5.5 O/U 49
Now we all know what Tampa bay is and how they literally destroyed the Bears but this matchup to me is all about the defense. Tampa’s only weakness is really their defense against the pass ranking 10th in passing yards per attempt and 23rd in opponent total passing yards per game. The reason that I mention this is that New Orleans is a poor passing team with many injuries to their play makers and they will have to run the ball. The issue New Orleans run game is that Tampa ranks 3rd in opponent rushing EPA allowing only 3.3 yards per rush. The Saints themselves do not have a bad defense either ranking number 1 in defensive efficiency allowing a massive 19.7 yards per point while ranking 5th in drop-back EPA. Now I think that Tom Brady will have some success against this Saints defense but I also think that Sean Payton keeps a slow time of possession based game here so I think that Tampa wins but this total goes under.
Under 49 – 2.5 star premium
Refuse to lose Teaser that is 4-3 this year. 6 PT teaser – Patriots to 10.5 with the Titans to 8.5 – 2 star premium
In addition to this NFL free play, I will have an MLB play for my premium members in Game 5 of the World Series tonight. I’m 15-10-1, +6.28u in the NFL this season, and my premium plays are now 49-25-1, +36.8u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Steelers +4.5(-110) @ Browns–Noon CT
After a 1-3 start, many people wrote off the Steelers. However, they were able to bounce back with 2 straight wins before enjoying a BYE week heading into this divisional matchup. Ben Roethlisberger is obviously a shell of his former self, but he’s still competent enough to play a “game manager” role; his experience has to matter for something. While the Browns defense presents a tough matchup, I’m expecting rookie RB Najee Harris to break out in the second half of the season; that could very well begin with a productive game today. The Browns are riddled with injuries; Baker Mayfield will play despite having a torn labrum and shoulder fracture, and RB Kareem Hunt is still out for Cleveland. While they will welcome back RB Nick Chubb into the fold coming off an injury of his own, I doubt we’re going to see Chubb in his peak form in just his first game back of an injury. The Steelers’ defense has been their backbone all season long, and I think they’re catching Cleveland at a vulnerable time. 4.5 points is simply too many points to be giving a team of Pittsburgh’s pedigree in a division game. I’ll take Big Ben and the Steelers to cover as road ‘dogs coming off the BYE week.
Halloween Sunday card has the 2021 AFC Total of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, a 5* 16-0 Power System along with Sunday night Football, NBA and World Series Game 5. NFL Comp Play below.
The NFL Comp play is on the Indianapolis Colts at 1:00 eastern. The Colts have covered 7 of 10 here vs the Titans and are off a big win in SF last week. They take on a Tennessee team that is off a pair of dog wins, a role which has seen them go 0-4 ats in the next game. Those upset wins also tie in a long Term system that plays against dogs of 5 or less off 2 straight dog wins vs an opponent off a win. The Titans have failed to cover 19 of 25 on the road vs a team under .500. The Favorite in this series has covered 8 of 10 and with Jonathan Taylor cleared to play the Colts can match the Titans run game and should emerge with the win. On Halloween its all Treats today as the 2021 AFC Total of the Year and an Executive Level Tier 1 Headline a Powerful NFL Card. We also have a World Series Game 5 Play and NBA and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go with the Colts. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
What a Thursday night game! Starting the week out 1-0 is huge. Now time to carry that momentum into this weekend. Here is my FREE PICK:
Current NFL Season Record: 68-36 (65%), +37.46 units
Lac -4.5 (-105) 1 unit:
Coming off a bye at home after getting absolutely throttled by the Ravens, Chargers are going to be ready. Patriots have had a rather convenient schedule only having to travel twice so far this year out of their seven games. Once to play the Jets and the other to Houston, and boy did they struggle traveling all the way down there. Now they are going to span the entire country in a match up that does not bode well for them and here is why:
Offense. Simply put that is what the Patriots will lack in this game. They will not be able to go Toe-to-Toe with the high-powered Chargers offense. Justin Herbert will be back to form this week controlling the game flow, clock, and scoring. Mac Jones (in my opinion) is the best rookie QB this year, however there are levels to this. Herbert and the Chargers are in a much higher class than the Patriots and Mac Jones at this point. The Chargers are able to attack in all facets of the game. Effective running, high percentage short throws, deep down field attacks, competent tight end play, and the speed to tie it all together. They are dynamic, accurate, consistent, and complete. Patriots seem rather vanilla. Mac Jones is still learning and growing he’s managing the game, rather than dictating it. To be able to compete in this game the Patriots will need to match each and every touch down the Chargers put up. I do not see that happening. Chargers -4.5
You already got my CFB and NFL picks this weekend. I’ll be in AC getting after it today so apologies ahead of time if I’m late to any questions you have on Insta and Twitter. Here are my non-football picks for today:
NBA 10.30:
Magic +6 *
Knicks -6 **
Jazz -3.5 **
UFC Parlay:
Chimaev, RIbas, Ankalaev, Makhachev, and Yan (1 unit to win 3) ***
UFC is Kiev O’Neil’s best sport! To get his premium and exotic plays Click Here!
UFC 267 will be an amazing event broadcasted not on pay per view but on ESPN+ Check it out!
Here are some plays:
Parlay – Jan Blachowicz -300/Petr Yan -210 – -105 – 2 star premium
Jan Blachowicz at 28 years old is fighting 42 year old Glover Teixeira in this main event and Glover isn’t even the top contender here in my opinion. Jan should have the speed, lungs and striking advantage here. Petr Yan would be the champion in the Bamtam weight division if he didn’t give an illegal knee to Aljamain Sterling who is now in hiding. Corey Sandhagen is a great opponent but he isn’t a good match for Yan’s ground game and bullish mentality. Cory is more of a finesse fighter who can lose by points due to his weaker ground game and overall strength. I can see some big motivation here for Yan to get his title here.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Jingliang Li +400
Khamzat is the biggest hyped up and coming fighter in the welterweight division. Say what you want about Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns but Khamzat is the best contender right now for Kamaru Usman. Jinliang Li isn’t no slouch himself at 18-6 winning 4 out of his last 5 fights but even at 4.52 significant strikes per minute, he is no match for Khamzat who averages a massive 9 respectively at 80% accuracy. I think Khamzat finishes this thing early and instead of laying -550, there are better ways of approaching this fight. Enjoy the fights today. They start early! Best of luck!
Khamzat Chimaev wins inside the distance -175 – 2 stars
Khamzat Chimaev wins in Round 1 – +170 – 1 star premium
Early game that has the Falcons visiting the Bulls in what has been a disappointing season for both teams. Both have shown flashes with BGST upsetting Minnesota earlier this season and BUFF with a couple of narrow defeats when they’ve faced better competition in CCAR and WMICH. That being said, Bowling Green’s season has turned for the worst since the win against MINN, with a really bad loss at home to Akron, 35-20.
There is concern for Buffalo covering as it seems they don’t get up for lesser competiton, almost losing against Ohio. What I like about this game is the matchup. The Bulls are poor vs the run, 110th, but the Falcons come in with the 105th ranked Rushing offense. BGST’s pass defense is actually pretty good, but they have trouble stopping the run, as they are 127th Rush DEF YPG. More good news for Buffalo who wants to run, 31st Rush OFF YPG. Bowling Green wants to pass and Buffalo has fared well against teams who want to throw (held WMICH to 24 points) but are 83rd v the pass. Teams that run tend to wear their opponents down as the games go along, but with BGST’s ability to pass (65th), I worry about a back door cover.
So I’m looking towards the BUFF 1H -7 (-120) in this one. Bowling Green has been down by at least 7 in 3 of their L4 in the 1H, and would be 4 out of L4 but they lost that 1H by 6. Those were all against MAC competition and they ended up covering 2 of those 4 for the whole game. 87% of the money on BUFF for this one, but also 84% of the the tickets. I’m taking Buffalo to cover the 1H in this one.
We have 6 NCAAF plays loaded up for premium clients and we have been hitting CFB 14-5 in our last 19 plays I have 2 premium plays below and have 4 more for premium members. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays on Saturday!!
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The #9 Iowa Hawkeyes travel to Madison to battle with their Big Ten rival Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randal Stadium on Saturday afternoon. The Hawkeyes come in off a loss to Purdue two weeks ago 24-7 and the Badgers are 4-3 after taking care of that same Boilermakers squad last week by a score of 30-13 and are winners of their last 3. Iowa comes in averaging 311 yards per game, 4.6 yards per play and 28 points per game while Wisconsin is putting up 364 yards per game, 5.2 yards per play and 21.1 points per game. Those are the offensive stats, however this should be a defensive ball game with the Hawkeyes limiting opposing offenses to 14.6 points per game after averaging 26.2 PPG and the Badgers are doing a bit of the same limiting the opposition to 18.4 points per game from offenses averaging 29 PPG. These are two of the slowest paced teams in the nation with Iowa ranking 106th in tempo and Wisconsin ranking 119th in the land. They both also run the ball at a high clip with the Hawkeyes rushing 55.5% (64th in nation) while the Badgers are rushing 66.8% (8th in country) of the time and neither team has much big play ability with Iowa ranking 110th in the nation in plays of 20 yards or more and Wisconsin even worse at 127th in the nation and to make things harder for the offenses, the defenses rank 2nd and 5th in giving up plays over 20 yards. Points will be hard to come by and they only way this goes above the total is if there are multiple defensive touchdowns. The edge in this game will be Wisconsin’s running game averaging 4.7 yards per rush on the ground and should open some eyes on that Hawkeyes front. Take Wisconsin – 3 and Under 37
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Saturday plays include the 2021 Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, Afternoon 6* and 5* plays along with Game 4 World Series Historical System and NBA Blowout. Comp play below
The College Football Comp Play is on the OVER in the Charlotte at Western Kentucky game at 4:00 eastern. This Top level over play i backed with a High end totals system and a Simulation Model showing the game going into the 80/s. Charlotte is ranked 111 on defense and Western Kentucky 114th. Charlotte has a balanced offense that average 400 yards per game and 27 points. WKU is ranked 7th in the nation with 543 yards per game, they average 40 points an are the #1 passing team in the country, they score often and fast. Look for this game to play over the Total. On Saturday a Huge card is up with the Mountain West Play of the Year, Executive Level Tier 1 headlining College Football along with NBA, World Series Game 4 and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the College Comp play. Go over 73 in the Charlotte vs Western Kentucky game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We are 72-57-2 in College Football this year up 26U! To become a member, please Click Here!
Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 50
I have been looking forward to this game for a long time now and it is nice to see both teams facing off at 7-0. Who would have thought? You know the wolverines are good when people are not chirping about how bad Jim Harbaugh is this year. I have to think that some of his adversaries are waiting for that big Ohio State game. At the same time, Michigan State under coach Mel Tucker has been a huge surprise this year and I am still baffled on how good of a head coach he has become on such a short duration of time. Now even with Michigan’s great success, does this warrant them being a 4.5 point road favorite against their little bro? Not likely by that much. Especially when you look at the Metrics. Both team are great at running the ball at about 5.4 yards per rush but Michigan State defends the rush a bit better allowing only 3.27 yards per rush to Michigan’s 3.56. Michigan State has the edge passing the ball at 9.2 yards per attempt to Michigan’s 8.0 but the Wolverines have the advantage defending the pass ranking 33rd in success rate to Sparty’s 65th. Michigan State also has the better sack rate that Michigan ranking 29th to Michigan’s 91st. Michigan however has the better offensive line ranking number 2 in opponent stuff rate and they also have a better EPA margin ranking 12th over Michigan State’s 22nd. I know I through a lot at you here but in summary you should be able to tell that this spread should not be past the key number of 3. My power ratings have Michigan winning this game by 2 points.
Michigan State +4 – 3 stars and sprinkle
Texas vs Baylor -2.5 O/U 61.5
This line is kinda like the Clemson vs Pittsburgh line last week except that Texas doesn’t have the recent history that Clemson has. Without looking at the numbers, one would think that this is an offense vs defense game but Baylor actually shows better in both the rushing and passing categories at 6.1 rushing yards per attempt to Texas’s 5.6, and Baylor averages 9.1 yards per pass to Texas’s 9. It’s not even close on defense and Baylor ranks 20th in EPA margin to Texas ranking 77th. Baylor has a net 1.6 yard per play advantage over the Long horns as well. Now Texas has the tougher strength of schedule but that is due to mainly the Arkansas and Oklahoma matchups that haven’t aged all that well. Who has Texas beaten? Louisiana? TCU? Baylor has wins vs Iowa State, BYU, and West Virginia which I think is better. Baylor is the play.
Baylor -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Penn State vs Ohio State -19 O/U 61
This is a massive spread for the Big 10. Penn State very well might be the second best team in this conference and they are 18.5 point dogs? That’s brutal. The question for me is what would this spread look like before last week’s games? Well I’ll tell you. It was Ohio State -11.5. This is a massive 7 point adjustment and I think it is too much. Now Ohio State certainly has the metrics and they also have a massive 2.4 net yard per play advantage but strength of schedule I think plays a massive role here. Penn State had to play Wisconsin, Iowa, a pretty good Auburn team while Ohio State’s toughest game was a home loss vs Oregon and maybe Minnesota ranks 2nd. I think if there is an advantage for Penn State, it is on the defensive side of the ball. The Nittany Lions rank 33rd in stuff rate while Ohio State ranks 87th. Penn State also ranks 3rd in passing play success rate to Ohio State ranking 73rd. This means that Sean Clifford will have to move the ball to his big receivers through the air. I think that he has that in him enough to at least cover this thing. My Power number is Ohio State -14.75 giving them 4 points for home field advantage. I will take Penn State first half as usual and Ohio State 2nd half but I also lean to the under.
Penn State 1st half +10.5 – 1.5 star premium and Ohio State 2nd half (only if they are winning by 10 or less) – 1.5 stars.
