When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have a pair for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been good. 69-63 record thus far. +11.2 Units. 4-1 on Free Late night plays.
My first play features the Washington Huskies visiting the Stanford Cardinal. (Stanford is favored by 2.5, O/U 47.5) Both teams come into this game at 3-4 having both had a very up and down topsy-turvy season.
Washington has been plagued by an absolutely inept offense. Currently they are averaging 22.1 points per game and that is inflated by a 52 point showing vs Arkansas State. They were held to 7 points in the opener against FCS Montana. The Arkansas State game is also the only game in which they have put up more than 327 Yards. They did get something going in the 2nd half against Arizona last week going on three long scoring drives and putting up over 225 Yards. That’s Arizona however, we will see what happens this week.
What Washington does have going for them is a very strong passing defense. They gave up over 300 passing yards to Cal, but seem to have righted the ship since then. UCLA, OSU and AZ all ran the ball well against Washington, but struggled to push the ball downfield through the air.
That could pose a problem for Stanford’s offense as they rank 121st rushing the ball at 94.9 yards per game. Their main focus however has been Tanner Mckee throwing the ball. He’s completing passes at a 64.7% clip with 14 TD to 3 INT, and has a nice 150.6 QBRat. Strength vs Strength when Stanford has the ball.
Stanford’s D has hardly been a thing of beauty, but I like this match-up for them. They’ve also been weakest against the run, and Washington isn’t much better of a rushing team at 119 yards per game. Wazzou hung some passing yards on them last week, but that has really been it.
For me the bottom line here is Washington is going to struggle moving the ball. The first half effort last week against Arizona is more of what the norm has been. If Stanford can convert on third downs I don’t see this one being as close as the spread. Only concern is so far 88% of the bets and 97% of the money is on Stanford and it’s only moved from 2 to 2.5 at most books. I am sticking to my guns however as my power rankings have this as Stanford -4.5 so I am happy to lay the 2.5 here. Stanford -2.5, 2.5 Units
The Second free play is San Diego State hosting Fresno State (SDSU -1, O/U 44.5) Fresno comes in at 6-2 and SDSU is a perfect 7-0. They also cashed my Over 6.5 Wins futures bet on them last week super early.
This battle will be for First place in the West Division of the Mountain West. It features one of the best passing attacks in the country with Jake Haener who is averaging 322.8 YPG with 22 TDs and 6 INT. Currently the rushing attack is 86th in the country, but they’ve thrown the ball so well they have not had to rely on it much. They did struggle against Wyoming throwing the ball, and Wyoming does have an elite secondary similar to what SDSU is going to show him. In that Wyoming game he only threw for 96 yards .
Fresno’s defense has also been solid. In the Wyoming game where the offense struggled they shutout the Cowboys and carried the team to victory. They have been particularly good against the run holding teams to 128.1 YPG and 3.7 YPA. This will be their toughest test vs the run since Oregon, and they did give up some yards to UNLV as well on the ground.
For SDSU on offense it is all about ball control and wearing down your opponent. They rush on 67.6% of their plays for over 192 YPG. They are also 4th in rushing explosiveness. SDSU was efficient last week in the air going 11 for 13 for 72 yards. If they get too far behind catching back up through the passing game could be an issue as consistency has not been there for them.
The SDSU defense is the biggest key to their success. They are top 10 vs both the run and the pass so far this year, albiet outside of Utah they haven’t really played any explosive offenses. This will be their biggest test of the year. With Fresno rarely rushing they will rely on what was the question mark at the start of the year their secondary. They’ve been up to the task so far allowing only 5.2 YPA passing. The front seven is the SDSU strength and with Fresno dropping back most of the time they will be pinning their ears back and getting after the QB. They are ranked 13th in the nation in sacks so Haener might not be as comfortable behind center as he would like.
I’ve been riding the SDSU defense most of the year. This team was my first futures bet for that reason, and I really think this unit is the best on the field, and will lead them to victory. I’ve got this at SDSU -5.5, so this is one of my biggest personal spread differences so far this year. SDSU -1, 3 Units
Cheers guys! I’m very excited for this weekend! We have 9 football plays loaded up for premium clients and we have been hitting CFB 14-5 in our last 19 plays and 22-11 in our last 33 overall. BUT, the World Series is on tonight and I have a free premium for everyone with some plus money props that have a good chance in cashing, in my opinion. Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays today!!
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The World Series continues tonight in Atlanta at Truist Park. The series is now tied 1-1 and this will be the first game being played in the ATL with the first two taking place in Houston. The Braves will send out righty Ian Anderson to start game 3. He has been good this postseason pitching 12 innings while striking out 12 and giving up 3 runs including 1 homerun. However, he hasn’t lasted past the 4th inning in his last 2 starts against another good offense in the Dodgers. Anderson tends to struggle in the 1st inning and calms down as the game goes on and in the 2nd half of the season posted a 3.62 ERA but more than doubled his homerun rate (1.95 HR/9) and earned a 5.67 FIP. He also struggles versus lefties so look for Alvarez, Brantley and Tucker to have a big game tonight. The Astros will look to rookie right-hander Luis Garcia to take the mound after his near no-hitter against the Red Sox in his last time out. Before that start, he gave up 10 runs in 3.2 innings in his first two starts of the postseason. On the road this season, he posted a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 4.41 xFIP in 76.1 innings pitched and, similar to Anderson, he struggles against lefties. There is not enough consistency to trust Garcia here and will fade the recency bias. These teams have been hitting and both ranked in the top 10 of the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Both teams are also looking at bullpen days tomorrow so they will try to limit the amount of relievers for tonight’s game. Additionally, Tom Hallion will be behind the plate and his games are averaging 8.8 runs per game. I expect the offenses to show up again tonight. Take Over 8.5
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Plus Money Props worth a look
Joc Peterson +1.5 total bases +130
Kyle Tucker +1.5 TB +110
Michael Brantley +1.5 TB +110
Yordan Alverez +1.5 TB +110
Eddie Rosario HR +300
Freddie Freeman HR +425
Joc Peterson HR +360
Kyle Tucker HR +350
Yordan Alvarez HR +320
Grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
In addition to these 6 free plays, I’ve got 6 CFB plays posted for my premium members. A win on ECU -10 last night pushed my 2021 CFB record to 61-42-1(59%), +26.36u. My premium plays are currently hitting at a 67% clip(46-22-1) and have netted my members +36.6u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Michigan State +4(-110) vs Michigan–Sat. 11 AM CT
This line implies that Michigan is nearly a full touchdown better than Michigan State on a neutral field, and I just blatantly disagree with that. Michigan State’s offense features not only a Heisman-caliber RB in Kenneth Walker III, but also an explosive passing game; they have 2 WR’s who have eclipsed the 500 yard mark already, and each has caught 5 or more TD’s. Michigan’s defense presents a tough matchup to the Spartans, including an NFL caliber threat off the edge and a veteran-laden secondary. However, I trust QB Payton Thorne to do just enough through the air to make Michigan respect the pass, which should open up some running room for Walker. I’m really not a fan of Michigan’s offense because they have shown little trust in QB Cade McNamara’s abilities to win the game through the air. The Michigan State run defense has been solid all season, so I doubt the Wolverines are going to be able to feature a one-dimensional running attack like they have against weaker competition for much of this season. However, because Michigan has had trouble replacing the absence of WR Ronnie Bell, I’m not no sure they would even have success in the downfield passing game and be able to exploit Michigan State’s supposed weakness in the secondary. I’m willing to bet this ends in a field goal game in either direction, so I’ll take the 4 points with the home team who has a good chance of winning this outright.
*CFB(1u): Washington State/Arizona State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2 PM CT
Arizona State HC Herm Edwards operates his Sun Devils team like an NFL organization; that is shown in how he has crafted his coaching staff but more importantly the style in which the Sun Devils play. Arizona State runs just 64.3 plays/game(117th in CFB) and is in no rush to go up-tempo. The Sun Devils can create explosive plays through play action after they’ve established the run, but they won’t have an easy time doing so against what is a sneakily good Washington State defense. The Cougars yielded just 21 points to BYU last week and are led by a LB group that should be able to hold the Sun Devils’ run game in check. That being said, I’m a big fan of what Arizona State does defensively; they’re led by former NFL LB and Super Bowl champion Antonio Pierce, who has this group allowing less than 20 PPG this season. Washington State is now in Week 2 without HC Nick Rolovich, who brought over his vaunted offensive system from Hawaii. The Cougars put up just 19 points against BYU last week, and I expect them to have a tough time matching that number tomorrow. 53 is a tick too high for my liking, so in a game where possessions should be limited on both sides, I’ll take a crack at the Under.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana Monroe +27.5(-115) @ App State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
What am I missing here? While Louisiana Monroe had low expectations entering the season, they now sit at 4-3 after back-to-back outright wins against Liberty and South Alabama. Sure, each of those games was played at home, but you’re going to have a tough time convincing me that this line has appropriately adjusted for the Warhawks’ recent success. Ever since ULM switched to Chandler Rogers as its primary QB, things have turned around in a major way. Appalachian State is a good team, but given their style of play, they shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. QB Chase Brice has a history of turnover issues, and the Mountaineers use much more of a ground-first attack rather than throwing the ball all over the yard. I think the market has failed to adjust to the Warhawks’ turnaround, so let’s make ‘em pay for it.
*CFB(1u): North Carolina/Notre Dame UNDER 62.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
North Carolina came into the season with sky-high expectations, particularly for QB Sam Howell and the offense. Because of poor OL play, those expectations have been anything but met. Howell has been sacked a whopping 27 times this season(almost 4 sacks/game), which has thrown off Howell’s rhythm as a passer(61% completion this season vs 69% completion in 2020). RB Ty Chandler has also been held in check against UNC’s tougher competition; combined with their other struggles, this is an untrustable offense. UNC is somewhat hit-or-miss on defense, but I think they’ll buck up in this crucial game in South Bend. Notre Dame has seemingly turned a corner offensively, but they have had a tough time getting RB Kyren Williams consistent running room. QB Jack Coan is a solid QB, but he’s much more of a game manager than he is a guy that’s going to chuck it all over the yard. This total would be appropriate if UNC had met their preseason expectations offensively, but that simply hasn’t been the case. Even when UNC was effective offensively last season, they only managed to put up 17 on this Notre Dame defense. I’ll play Under in this matchup.
*CFB(1u): BYU TT UNDER 33(-120) vs Virginia–Sat. 9:15 PM CT
Virginia’s defense doesn’t present an overly difficult matchup, but BYU’s offense is getting far too much love with this posted total. The Cougars are scoring just 26 PPG this year and have relied much more on their defense to get to 6-2 through 8 games. They have only eclipsed this 33 point barrier twice this season; once against lowly South Florida(35 points), and another time against Utah State(34 points). While the Cavs defense tends to struggle against dynamic offenses, they have performed quite nicely against more stagnant, pro style offenses such as Illinois and Duke. BYU QB Jaren Hall is still a first-year starter, and his RB’s are not home-run threats. The Cougars also run just 65.4 plays/game(107th in CFB). 33 is far too many points to expect from BYU in this late-night matchup.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Iowa +9.5 @ Wisconsin AND Boston College +12.5 @ Syracuse(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Iowa vs Wisconsin features a clash of 2 stagnant offenses but also 2 great defenses. Iowa’s bread-and-butter all season has been forcing turnovers, which just happens to be Wisconsin’s achilles heal. Accordingly, Wisconsin has thrown the ball just 23 times over the past 2 games to avoid turnovers from QB Graham Mertz. Iowa is as stout of a defense as you’re going to find, so I expect them to hold strong against the run-heavy Badgers attack. The Iowa offense looked pitiful in a 7 point effort against Purdue, but with 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I expect some adjustments. Hawkeye QB Stephan Petras isn’t all that reliable, but he’s still far more trustworthy than Mertz. This should be a one-possession, low-scoring game that could go in either direction, so teasing Iowa up to a 2-possession dog seems like a safe bet.
Boston College let us down last week, but I’m going right back to the well with them in this teaser. It’s shocking to see Syracuse laying 6.5 to anybody in a conference game, but I’ll concede that the Orangemen have found success with the combo of QB Garret Shraeder and RB Sean Tucker in the running game. Even so, I trust BC HC Jeff Hafley to have the Golden Eagles ready to play. Boston College has to find a way to move on and recover from the absence of QB Phil Jurkovec; Dennis Grosel has been far too inconsistent since being forced into a starting role. However, Syracuse’s defense is beatable, and I just trust Hafley to have his guys in position to possibly win this game late.
Hi All! We keep pushing through this early, zany part of the NBA Season and we’re doing well (just check the data below)! Here are my favorite plays today:
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%) NBA 21/22 Season: 17-10, +11.2 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 52-47, +10.9 units
Nets -8.5 (-110), 2 units and Pacers/Nets over 222 (-110), 1.5 units: Okay so tonight’s pick is pretty gross, I’ll give you that. I’m betting on one of the most media-fed teams in the NBA- I think they’re overrated and highly annoying- and yet here I am taking the points on a big line for this squad. The Nets have limped into the regular season and their allure has substantially diminished. When you think of the Nets, you think about explosive, high-paced offense, right? Yet so far they’re 25th in offensive efficiency and 26th in points at only 102 ppg. That’s pretty, well, shocking. James Harden has gotten off to a slow start, and while Kevin Durant is playing like we’d expect him to– dominant, confident, efficient– the rest of the Nets don’t seem to be gelling. Durant is averaging nearly 30 ppg and 10 rebounds already out the gate, but he’s not getting much help along the way. Blake Griffin is off, Joe Harris hasn’t been as electric from beyond the arc, and Harden is only averaging 16.6 ppg. Something has to give and why not tonight against one of the worst (and most depleted) defensive teams in the NBA?
The Pacers rank 26th in defensive efficiency so far this season. Even worse– their bench is producing at one of the lowest rates in the NBA. They already lack depth and additional injuries surely don’t help. Caris LaVert isn’t quite ready to return yet (at least that’s what reports tell me), and if he does play tonight he’ll almost definitely be on a minutes count after recovering from a stress fracture in his back (in basketball, that’s not ideal). Malcolm Brogdon is also out tonight, which leaves a tremendous amount of responsibility on Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and a shallow bench to keep pace with Brooklyn.
This feels like a game where the Nets’ offense can finally get right. I expect some improvement both in their offensive output and pace against a weak Indiana rotation. I’m on the Nets and I expect a high total, too– 222 feels low for that narrative. Let’s go!
Nets -8.5 ** (Significant spot advantage, Nets ready to burst with production, Pacers hurt and have huge depth issues right now)
Lakers -8 ** (may want to wait to see if Lebron plays but if you do, this line could go up even higher. This is another significant spot advantage and big redemption spot for LAL, who’s on a 5 game home stretch against a bunch of shitty teams)
Blazers -2.5 ** (something is going on with LAC and it ain’t good. Portland is always a tough travel spot and the Blazers are winning without Lillard ballin’ out. When he does… watch out!)
*CFB(2u): Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 50.5(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Both teams enter this game undefeated after massively over performing expectations through the first half of the season. This is especially true of Michigan State(7-0), whose season win total prior to the season was listed at 4. The Spartans have employed a balanced offensive attack centered around Heisman-caliber RB Kenneth Walker III and a pair of great WR’s, but I expect them to run into their toughest test to date in this game. The Wolverines are allowing just over 14 PPG and have one of the best edge rushers in the country in Aidan Hutchinson. More importantly, the Wolverines are very sharp and riddled with experience in the secondary. I believe they will be able to limit Payton Thorne’s ability to hit on the deep ball and force the Spartans to beat them consistently on the ground. Walker’s overall numbers are fantastic, but Indiana and Nebraska were both able to keep him under 100 yards and less than 4 ypc, so the blueprint is there for Michigan to follow suit. As good as I feel about Michigan’s defense entering this game, I can’t say the same about their offense. Jim Harbaugh and OC Josh Gattis have shown little trust in QB Cade McNamara to lead the passing attack and have often placed the majority of the load on the RB’s. A one-dimensional offense can yield you wins against Rutgers and Northwestern, but I think the Wolverines will be sorely disappointed if they enter this game with that same game plan. Michigan State has been solid against the run all season; while there are some questions in the Spartan secondary, Michigan is without its #1 WR Ronnie Bell and hasn’t seemed to find consistent play from its wideouts since Bell’s injury(which might explain why they’re hesitant to air it out). Neither QB has experience playing in this sort of environment, and I think we can expect some sloppy play from both(especially early). All things considered, 50.5 is too high of a total for this rivalry matchup. Each team is going to have to earn everything it gets offensively, and I don’t expect too many breakaway plays. That alone should keep this one under the total and give us a 2u Best Bet winner to start the day.
*CFB(1.5u): TCU/Kansas State UNDER 58.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I can’t for the life of me figure out why the oddsmakers keep posting totals this high on Kansas State games. We cashed a 1.5u winner on the Kansas State Under last week, and for many of the same reasons, I’m going right back to the well tomorrow. The Wildcats play at the 2nd slowest pace in all of College Football, running just 59 plays/game. While I like the QB/RB combo of Skylar Thompson and Deuce Vaughn, this offense is not built to light up the scoreboard. I’ll concede that TCU is not playing up to its normal standard and is having uncharacteristic issues stopping the run, but I’m not sure how much it will matter with a total posted this high. TCU has an abundance of issues offensively right now; QB Max Duggan is playing at far less than 100%, and there are rumors swirling around RB Zach Evans and whether he’ll enter the transfer portal. Regardless, because Kansas State employs arguably the best 1-2 CB combo in the conference, I expect the Wildcats to limit Duggan’s ability to hit Quentin Johnston deep and make the Horned Frogs drive the length of the field(similar to what West Virginia did last week in holding TCU to just 17 points). If Kansas State controls the tempo of this game, this should be the easiest winner of the day. I’ll remind you that the Wildcats yielded 14 points in the first 3 minutes of last week’s game and the game still finished 11.5 points below the posted total. Give me the Under here.
*CFB(1.5u): Ole Miss/Auburn UNDER 66.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Did you know that Ole Miss is 3-1 to the Under over it’s past 4 games? If you did know that, I can almost guarantee you’re in the minority. When the public sees “Ole Miss”, they’re programmed to start hammering the Over; I think they’ll be wrong for the 4th straight time in the past 5 weeks. The Rebels have endured the brutality of an SEC schedule maybe worse than anybody; its past 4 games have come against: Alabama, @ Arkansas(52-51 win), @ Tennessee(31-26 win), and LSU. Now, they’ll have to turn right back around and face off with Auburn, who is fresh off an opportunistic BYE week. Ever since the second half of the LSU game, Auburn QB Bo Nix has seemed to flip a switch; he had arguably the best game of his career 2 weeks ago in Fayetteville as the Tigers cruised to a 15 point victory. Coming off the BYE week, the hope is RB Tank Bigsby got healthier and will be able to carry more of the load going forward. I actually think that Auburn’s success offensively will help our Under bet; the Tigers aren’t a team built on explosive plays through the air due to their limitations at WR, but if they can control the pace of this game on the ground and in the intermediate passing game, they’ll prevent Ole Miss from jacking up the pace of this game. Ole Miss’s defense has played a lot of snaps over the past month, and I think they’ll have a hard time getting off the field. Ole Miss uses a heavy ground attack themselves, including with QB Matt Corral, who had 30(!) carries against Tennessee. I believe this Auburn defense is among the most underrated in the country. Under the leadership of Derek Mason, this defense specializes in the second and third levels. Ole Miss is struggling with WR health/depth at the moment, and frankly, I think their run game can be stifled by Auburn’s front 7. I expect Auburn to control the pace of this game by getting Ole Miss out of their offensive rhythm and gaining an edge in the time-of-possession category. With that in mind, 66.5 is simply too high of a total. I think Auburn wins, but I feel much better playing the Under in this one.
*CFB(1.5u): SMU/Houston OVER 61.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
This is probably the most underrated game on this loaded Saturday card; while the Over is certainly the square play, I have little doubt we’ll see each team light up the scoreboard. SMU(7-0) has looked unstoppable offensively all season long, entering this matchup averaging 42.7 PPG. Houston’s defense is great at getting pressure on the QB, but this SMU O-Line is among the best in the country; SMU QB Tanner Mordecai has been sacked just twice all season. The Mustangs deploy a balanced offensive attack and run the 15th most plays/game in the country, so there should be plenty of opportunities for the Mustangs to find the end zone. As much as I just bragged about their offense, I don’t have much trust in the SMU defense. They carry a boom-or-bust reputation and are prone to allowing explosive plays. Houston isn’t a great running team, but QB Clayton Tune does a great job of distributing the ball to his talented WR’s and letting them take care of the rest. By getting Tune into a rhythm early, the Cougars should be able to open up some holes in the run game and really pile onto this SMU defense. I wouldn’t even bother picking a side in this game; I see the most value in this Over.
*CFB(1u): Oregon State/Cal UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
I would group Cal with a growing list of teams that have experience across their offense and might look good on paper, but simply don’t score at a very high rate. Even with a 4th year QB and experience across their offense, Cal is averaging a dismal 23.4 PPG. The Bears don’t generate many explosive plays in either the pass or run game, so Oregon State shouldn’t have too tough of a time preparing for this matchup. Cal is able to stay competitive in games because of their defense, and they will certainly need to be called on in this one. Oregon State doesn’t present a unique threat through the air, but RB B.J Baylor enters this matchup with 5 100+ yard games under his belt over his last 6 contests. Luckily, Cal’s strength on defense is their LB unit; Baylor is going to get his fair share of yards, but I trust the second-level of the Cal defense to limit Baylor’s explosiveness and force inconsistent QB Chance Nolan to beat them through the air. Neither of these teams are in a hurry to run tempo offensively, so combined with each defense’s perceived advantage entering this matchup, I’ll roll with the Under in this matchup.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Pittsburgh, Iowa State, Minnesota(+130)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Pitt is coming off an emotional high after beating Clemson last week, so I’d be hesitant to lay the 9 points with them(although that’s the only way I could play it). However, I don’t believe they’re in any real danger of losing to Miami. Miami picked up a much-needed win against NC State last week, but HC Manny Diaz’s seat is still scorching hot. Give credit to freshman Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke for stepping up big for the ‘Canes last week, but it’s unrealistic to expect a repeat performance on the road against a legit defense like Pitt. I’d expect Kenny Pickett and the Panthers offense to enjoy smooth sailing tomorrow against a poor Miami defense and for Pitt to cruise to a win.
Iowa State comes into this road bout with West Virginia fresh off of a 3 point victory over undefeated Oklahoma State. Matt Campbell’s teams generally struggle to start the season before really kicking into peak form in the back half of the season, and I believe this year’s Cyclones team is following that exact trend. Credit West Virginia for picking up a convincing road win at TCU last week, but the Mountaineers fall into that same category with Cal(see above) where points are just so hard to come by. Iowa State is a veteran-laden team that’s getting hot at the right time, and while West Virginia can certainly play them close, I expect the Cyclones to pull away late in this one. It’s worth noting that Matt Campbell is 2-0 versus Neal Brown since Brown arrived in Morgantown; the Cyclones won 38-14 in 2019 and 42-6 last season.
Minnesota is still hanging around as a sleeper team in the Big10 West with only 1 conference loss. The Gophers have had injury issues at multiple positions(especially RB), but PJ Fleck and his staff have done a great job of integrating young pieces into the fold and have seen almost no regression. The Northwestern offense has proven to be totally inept more times than not this season, so I’d expect a solid Gophers defense to have a relatively easy day of work. While Northwestern’s defense is capable, I trust the experienced Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan to manage this game and get the Gophers out of Evanston with a W. This isn’t the type of game PJ Fleck loses.
San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray dunks during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019, in San Antonio. Los Angeles won 103-96. (AP Photo/Darren Abate)
Last year, we saw Dallas reveal themselves to be one of the NBA’s best road teams but just couldn’t get it done at home. Tonight the Mavs are at home taking on a Spurs team that’s been playing hard. Too early to tell what these teams are but so far, we’ve seen Dallas come out slow averaging 21.7 ppg in the 1Q (30th) against a few defensive minded squads. San Antonio on the other hand, has been coming out of the gates quick with 28.8 ppg (12th) against better competition.
With San Antonio being another defensive minded team, Dallas at home I like a small gamble on SAS 1Q ML +150. There’s a chance McDermott is out for the Spurs tonight and Porzingis is also banged up, but this new look, young Spurs team is playing like they have something to prove. Seeing money coming in on Spurs whole game, so market like Spurs tonight, probably due to Dallas’ sluggish start.
SAS 1Q ML (+150) 0.5u (keeping it small in the beginning of the season)
