Monday Night NFL Game of the Month Headlines along with an A.L.C.S Game 3 Playoff Historical System. NHL Comp Play below
The NHL Comp Play is on the Under 6 goals in the NY. Rangers at Toronto game at 7:10 eastern. Both teams have played lower scoring games in the first week of the season with the Leafs going under in their first 3 as they get solid goal tending and have failed to capitalize on scoring chances. The Rangers have 2 unders and a push thus far and have played under in 15 of 20 as a road dog and 17 of 22 vs a team that allowed 2 or less last out. Toronto is 9 of 11 under off a win and 5 straight unders as a favorite. Look for this game to stay under tonight. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
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My focus will be on the NFL and NBA but we’ve been CRUSHING it in CFB lately, too. MLB will start to fade for me. These NBA picks only include the games I’m betting up until 10.20 — no 10.21 picks yet. None of these have an explanation (it’d be too much to type out), but as always, please let me know if you have any questions and I’d be happy to expand on why I’m betting these lines. Thanks!
10.18
Sox/Astros over 9 **
Titans +6.5 ***
Tannehill over 237.5 passing yards **
NFL Early Lines I’m Betting:
Broncos +5 *
Panthers -3 ***
Jets/Pats under 42.5 *
Bears +13 *
Colts +4 **
Early CFB Lines I’m Betting:
CC/App State over 59.5 **
Cincinnati -28 **
Ole Miss -10.5 **
USC +7 ***
NBA Lines I’m Betting This Week:
Bucks +1 **
Bucks Alt Line (-2.5) *
Nets/Bucks under 238 **
Warriors +4 **
Bulls -3.5 **
Celtics/Knicks under 217.5 **
76ers -2.5 (early line I got, I’d take this up to -3.5) ***
This is going to be an interesting game from the two teams that have the most loudmouth fans in the league (sorry not sorry). I must admit that I had to upgrade Dallas a good amount in my power ratings due to their solid offense that doesn’t seem to have much weakness and an improved defense. You have to give credit to what they are doing down there and up to this point, Mike McCarthy looks competent. My question about this team is what is real and what is fake? Dallas has a nice 1.4 turnovers per game margin which is 2nd in the NFL but I am not so sure that is sustainable. I feel that this turnover ratio might be hiding some deficiencies in their game being that they rank a massive 6th in defensive EPA and efficiency. Looking at yards per play, Dallas gives up a massive 6.3 ranking 28th in the league. Is this ball hocking defense sustainable? Looking at New England now, I have to admit that I had to drop them some in my power ratings but at the same time, this team has a pretty big home field advantage and it showed when they played Tampa Bay. I have New England power rated about 5 points worse than Dallas and being that they are at home, I have to favor them in this situation past the 3. There is also a large coaching mismatch here and I feel that Bill Belichick can muddy this game up to be a much closer result than expected.
New England +4 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Teaser: Bears to +12 with the Rams to -1.5 – 2 stars
Steve and I have went 12-1-1 in Circa picks the last 3 weeks – let’s ride the train to more wins in Week 6! Below are our official Circa plays, enjoy!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 38-33 (56%), +17 units
Coming off a 24 point loss to the Cowboys, it’s clearer than ever that the Giants are an absolute dumpster fire. While QB Daniel Jones cleared concussion protocol and will be good to go for this one, he’s struggled mightily playing in the Meadowlands and will run into a very tough matchup with this Rams defense. Even worse, he’ll be without star RB Saquon Barkley, top WR Kenny Golladay, and possibly WR’s Darius Slayton and/or Sterling Shepard. The Giants’ inability to sustain drives has left their defense hung out to dry, and that won’t bode well facing one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Rams might be 4-1, but they know they’ve left too many points on the field over the last 2 weeks against the Cardinals and Seahawks after a blazing hot start. I think we’ll see the Rams come out aggressive and the Giants fail to keep up, which could very well result in a lopsided score like we saw in NYG/DAL last week. I’ll make an exception and lay this big of a number with the road favorite.
Aaron Rodgers has absolutely owned the Chicago Bears throughout his Hall of Fame career, and I expect that trend to continue this afternoon. The Bears might’ve picked up against the Raiders last week, but this is still a team with glaring issues. Justin Fields is completing just 51% of his passes this season and will not be helped by one of the worst coaches in the league in Matt Nagy. To make matters worse, Chicago will be without both David Montgomery and Damien Williams at RB and will have to rely on rookie Khalil Herbert to carry the load. This offense simply doesn’t have what it takes to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and a dynamic Packers offense. I don’t typically lay this big of a number with a road favorite in the NFL, but this situation absolutely warrants it.
Dec 26, 2019; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Eastern Michigan Eagles defensive back Brody Hoying (24) celebrates with teammates after getting a fumble recovery during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st! 58-41-1 in College Football up 31 Units and 36-32 in the NFL up 2U!
Ball State vs Eastern Michigan +1.5 O/U 55.5
Some handicaps come easy if you know how to understand pace of play and the weather report. Ball State started off horrible and then greatly improved their defense holding Toledo, Army and Western Michigan all under 22 points. They also have a pretty slow pace at 26 seconds per play and only 67 plays per game. Eastern Michigan on the other hand isn’t exactly known for their offense and when they played teams that weren’t named UMASS, ST. Francis and Texas State, they couldn’t even score more than 20 points. Eastern Michigan ranks 108th in plays per game at 65.4 and a very slow pace of play at 27.14 seconds per play. Eastern Michigan’s Red Zone defense has been stopping opponents from scoring TDs and they only allow 22 points per game after 6 games. The Eagle’s defensive pass EPA ranks 24th in the nation which is pretty good for a MAC team. This is going to be a sloppy game with potential rain and 16 MPH winds. I like the under here to hit with ease.
Under 55.5 points 2.5 stars
Auburn vs Arkansas -4.5 O/U 53.5
This spread is a bit low because of the market thinking that Auburn played Georgia better than Arkansas so therefore they might be the better team. I am going to call BS on that. Arkansas has had the tougher schedule having to play 4 ranked teams to Auburn’s 2 and the Hogs still rank a nice 21st in EPA margin to Auburn’s 60th. Also, the Tiger’s win vs LSU isn’t aging all that well while the Hog’s win against Texas looks pretty solid. Arkansas has performed well vs top opponents minus Georgia and Arkansas strength of schedule ranks 3rd in the nation to Auburn’s 60th. Even after all of this, the Hogs have a slight yards per play advantage over the Tigers. I think this is a good spot for the Hogs to redeem those 2 recent losses.
Miner Nation is going to hate for me this one, but I like LA Tech to cover this one. Line dropped from it’s open of -9 which I understand, UTEP has started better than expected at 5-1 on the season. LA Tech damn near lost to FCS school SE Louisiana second game of the season. UTEP’s defensive numbers are respectable, allowing 4.3 YPP (yards per play) to LA Tech’s 5.7. However, the superior defensive numbers the Miners have can be thrown out in my mind as they have played the weakest schedule in the country.
LA Tech isn’t much better at 85th, but they did play well in all of their losses. I’m not crazy about the number at 7, so grab the 6.5 if it’s available to you at your book. Money agrees with me on this one, coming in slightly more to the LA Tech side. If the -7 (+100) scares you off I don’t blame you… It’s not a great value play. But I’m also looking for the Bulldogs to come out hot off of their Bye so taking the 1H -3.5 sounds even better to this bettor.
Saturday card is loaded. The 100% ACC Game of the Year, Our Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the Early 5* Blowout along with the BIG 10 Game of the Month, EPL Soccer and MLB League Championship Power System plays. A huge day overall. College Comp Play below.
The College Comp play is on Wisconsin at 8:00 eastern. The Badgers are going to cause problems for Army as the Knights like to run the ball and Wisky has the #2 rush defense. The Badgers will wear down Army as they are a massive team on both sides of the line and can throw the ball better than Army. Wisconsin has covered 6 of 8 non conference. Army has failed to cover 5 of 6 with rest, 4 of 5 as a road dog as well as 4 of 5 after allowing less than 100 on the ground. Normally this would be a trap game for a power conference in the middle of their league schedule. However with Wisconsin favored by 14 and looking to get back to .500 and Army figuring to have a tough time on offense. We will back Wisconsin here. On Saturday we have a huge card up led by the ACC Game of the Year and our Executive Level Tier 1. There is also League Championship Power Systems in MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we are expecting another big day. For the College Comp play. Lay the 14 with Wisconsin. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units and are 4-1 in the Postseason. Join at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Jose Altuve has been hitting .313 with 5 hits and 1 homerun in the playoffs and in 32 at bats against Sale, he owns a .414 wOBA and has 10 hits including 1 double and 3 homeruns. Take Over 1.5 total bases +120
Alex Bregman has hit .375 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in the playoffs and owns a .530 wOBA and has 4 hits including 2 homeruns against Sale. Take over 1.5 total bases +130
Enrique “Kike” Hernandez has been hitting .435 with 10 hits and 2 homeruns this postseason and owns a .340 wOBA and 1 homerun in 11 at bats against Valdez. Take over 1.5 total bases +135
