Play on: (1.67 units to win 2 units)
- Eagles +8
- Bucs -4.5
- Colts +11
New NFL Premium Teaser
More NFL Week 7 Premiums
Hey Premium Members– here’s a few more plays to add to our list:
- Eagles win ** (Waller out, number falling, sharps and public on Philly and I think it’s the right side)
- Texans +20 ** (auto bet, too many points)
- Cupp over 96 receiving yards (-114) *
Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NFL Power System Play + AFC North Game of the year info
Sunday card has the AFC North Game of the year from a 19-1 system dating to 1983, the Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the Sunday night NFL Play of the Month on NBC, along with NBA and NHL. Comp Play below.
On Sunday the NFL Comp Play is on the LA. Rams at 4:05 eastern. The Rams are laying 16 here. However they fit a powerful system that plays on home favorites from -10.5 to -16.5 that are off a pair of road favored wins and covers. These teams long term are 27-0 with a 20-5-2 spread mark. The Rams have covered 26 of 35 vs NFC Teams and the last 3 in the series. The Lions have failed to cover 10 of 13 after rushing for 90 or less yards, 17 of 21 after allowing more than 250 through the air and 4 of 5 vs winning teams. The Move to Stafford has paid off well so far. Goff for the Lions not so much. Look for the Rams to cover. On Sunday the AFC North Play of the year headlines along with a Top Executive Level TIER 1 Total, Sunday night Play of the Month, NBA and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we end the week big. For the Comp play. Lay it with LA. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
October 24th NFL Free Play
In addition to this free play, I have an NFL premium play up for my members. I’m currently 14-9-1, +5.88u in the NFL this season. After a +5.9u week on my CFB premium plays, my premium record sits at 43-22-1(66%), +32.97u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Washington FT +8.5 @ Packers–Noon CT
Washington is coming off a total meltdown against Kansas City last week that saw QB Taylor Heinicke totally collapse in the second half. Outside of that performance, however, Heinicke has actually been pretty reliable for Washington, and much of Washington’s failures this season can be attributed to their defense. Green Bay’s defense doesn’t scare me, and coming off that disappointing loss, I see the Washington offense coming out sharp and with a chip on their shoulder. The Packers have won 5 straight, but I see this as an emotional letdown spot for Rodgers and company coming off an emotional road win against division rival Chicago last week. I’m still holding out hope that Washington can fix some of their defensive woes, and I’m willing to give veteran HC Ron Rivera the benefit of the doubt entering this backs-against-the-wall game. Washington should keep this close throughout the game and give themselves a chance to win outright late.
NFL Week 7 Circa Picks
As I’m sure you know by now, Steve and I are 17-2–1 the last 4 weeks in Circa and we’re currently in the top 100 contest rankings! Here are today’s selections:
- Bengals +6.5
- Panthers -3
- Lions +15
- Eagles +3
- Saints -5
For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 11-2, +17.6 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
Gameday NFL Week 7 Market Summary
Quick look on what the market likes according to Wagertalk Live odds screen early Sunday morning. Let’s see if the money is correct in today’s games. In the chart, here’s tickets vs. money and the difference between the two. Numbers have changed since earlier week report and lines have moved, so chasers beware…
For the Spreads…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. % | $ Pick |
| PHI | 68% | 86% | 18% | PHI |
| SF | 50% | 61% | 11% | SF |
| DEN | 67% | 74% | 7% | OFF |
| DET | 60% | 65% | 5% | DET |
| KC | 50% | 51% | 1% | KC |
| ATL | 54% | 54% | 0% | ATL |
| CIN | 65% | 62% | -3% | BAL |
| GB | 57% | 52% | -5% | WAS |
| NOR | 59% | 51% | -8% | SEA |
| TB | 61% | 53% | -8% | CHI |
| NE | 79% | 71% | -8% | NYJ |
| CAR | 61% | 52% | -9% | NYG |
| HOU | 74% | 57% | -17% | ARI |
For the totals…
| GAME | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. | $ Pick |
| DET/ LAR | o51% | u92% | 143% | UNDER |
| HOU/ ARI | u54% | u82% | 28% | UNDER |
| ATL/ MIA | u62% | u81% | 19% | UNDER |
| NOR/ SEA | u82% | u94% | 12% | UNDER |
| CIN/ BAL | o54% | o65% | 11% | OVER |
| KC/ TEN | o76% | o84% | 8% | OVER |
| CHI/ TB | o50% | o56% | 6% | OVER |
| IND/ SF | u70% | u73% | 3% | UNDER |
| PHI/ LVR | o55% | o53% | -2% | UNDER |
| CAR/ NYG | u82% | u80% | -2% | OVER |
| WAS/GB | o54% | o50% | -4% | UNDER |
| NYJ/ NE | u88% | u77% | -11% | OVER |
| DEN/ CLE | u61% | o52% | -13% | OVER |
Reminder, the money (sharps) aren’t 100% either. Lines have moved so if you’re like me and want to see where market is at, also always check to see how much the line has moved to evaluate value! Good luck today!
NFL Week 7 Free Plays – Sports Betting
Baltimore vs Cincinnati -6 O/U 47
Baltimore has been on a tear this year since that weird Raiders game they lost in overtime. No matter what this team keeps going strong even through bad injuries and Lamar Jackson is a huge part of that. In saying that, the Ravens have also been the luckiest team from a winning perspective in the league. This team should have lost to Detroit due to an officiating blunder and clutch performances, they got the job done on a 66 yard field goal. Other close games were vs Kansas City and Indianapolis. The Bengals on the other hand look to be on a mission. They spent a ton of money on the defense and it looks like it is paying off. Joe Burrow to Jamar Chase has really paid off so far and Joe is right aligned with Lamar Jackson in passing EPA but on defense, the edge goes to Cincinnati ranking 7th in opponent EPA per play to Baltimore’s 12th. Baltimore’s strength of schedule is a bit better than Cincinnati’s but their opponents were all offensive based or bad in general minus the Broncos. Finally, Cincinnati has the better defense ranking 7th in opponent EPA Margin to Baltimore’s 12th. The Bengals have a .4 yards per play advantage over the Ravens. I’ll grab the points here and go with Cincinnati to keep it close.
Cincinnati +6.5 – 3 stars
Detroit vs LA Rams -15 O/U 50.5
Ok, this is the big drama game with Jared Goff coming back to LA to prove that he is an NFL quarterback to his X-girlfriend Sean McVay and the Shams. On the other side of the coin, the Rams want to destroy the Lions to prove they made the right move right? WRONG! Or at least, maybe wrong. Why would the Rams care to beat a guy who gave them their heart and soul for all of these years. I have to think that Jared Goff has some relationships with this team and being that the Rams are doing so well with Stafford, they really have nothing to prove right now. Looking at the metrics in this game, it is quite obvious that LA can destroy this team in the passing game and LA has most matchup advantages but if Detroit can at least blitz Stafford hard and try to have him get rid of that ball, they might be able to create some havoc. I think that Detroit needs to commit to the run as well to keep time of possession in their favor. Dan Campbell called this team out after the Bengals bungled them up pretty good. My number is Rams 31-20 and the back door will be open this game if it gets out of hand.
Detroit +15 – 2.5 star premium and sprinkle
Refuse to lose teaser is 3-3! 6pt teaser with the Packers to -2.5 with New England down to -1 – 2 stars
Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NFL Comp Play Lions at Rams
Sunday card has the AFC North Game of the year from a 19-1 system dating to 1983, the Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the Sunday night NFL Play of the Month on NBC, along with NBA and NHL. Comp Play below.
On Sunday the NFL Comp Play is on the LA. Rams at 4:05 eastern. The Rams are laying 16 here. However they fit a powerful system that plays on home favorites from -10.5 to -16.5 that are off a pair of road favored wins and covers. These teams long term are 27-0 with a 20-5-2 spread mark. The Rams have covered 26 of 35 vs NFC Teams and the last 3 in the series. The Lions have failed to cover 10 of 13 after rushing for 90 or less yards, 17 of 21 after allowing more than 250 through the air and 4 of 5 vs winning teams. The Move to Stafford has paid off well so far. Goff for the Lions not so much. Look for the Rams to cover. On Sunday the AFC North Play of the year headlines along with a Top Executive Level TIER 1 Total, Sunday night Play of the Month, NBA and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we end the week big. For the Comp play. Lay it with LA. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
2 Free CFB Premium Picks for Saturday, October 23rd
We have been 10-3 in our last 13 College Football plays, 23-19 CFB this season and 16-8 in out last 24 plays overall (CFB, MLB, NFL). I am giving out 2 premium picks for free below. Good luck to everyone with their plays today!!
Join the SPORTS PICK HUB today and get all plays as soon as I bet them personally (CLV is very important long term!)
AND, grab my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
In a primetime matchup, the Temple Owls will travel from Philadelphia to Florida to take on the Bulls of South Florida at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday, The Owls enter with a 3-3 record after getting blown out by a very talented Cincinnati squad last week by a score of 52-3 and the Bulls come in with a 1-5 record after losing to Tulsa by 1 last week. Temple has been averaging 342 yards per game, 5.3 yards per play and 23.3 points per game while the Bulls are gaining 323 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play and 22.2 points per game. These are two slow paced teams as they rank 87th and 93rd in the nation in tempo and neither have much big play ability. The Owls rank 101st in the country in plays of 20 yards or more (24) and the Bulls are even worse by 115th in plays of 20 yards or more (20). They both run the football at a clip just over 3.5 yards per rush but still Temple runs the ball 51% of plays and USF runs 59.3% of the time and should eat up some clock doing so. Both of these defenses are giving up over 30 points per game but that was against offenses that were better than what they will face this Saturday and Temple actually ranks 8th in the nation with only giving up 166.5 yards per game through the air. Additionally, the offenses wont be able to take advantage of the lack of defense as they are scoring and gaining less than their opponent has averaged on the year. According to PFF, Temple ranks 107th on offense and the Bulls rank even worse at 115th in the nation. I am not expecting many points in this ball game, the defenses will give up come but I expect the total to end up in the high 40s to low 50s. Take Under 56.5
The Southern California Trojans head to Indiana to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on Saturday night. USC enters the matchup with a 3-3 record after losing to Utah 42-26 two weeks ago and the Irish are 5-1 after beating Virginia Tech by 3 points 2 weeks ago. The Trojans are putting up 32.2 points per game and gaining 448 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while the Fighting Irish are averaging 368 yards per game, 5.2 yards per play and 31 points per game. Notre Dame has only played one offense ranked in the top 50 (Cincinnati), according to PFF, and this USC offense will be the most lethal they will have faced yet. These teams also have a faster paced offense in ranking 49th and 50th in the nation in tempo and both teams pass the ball more than they run and rank in the top 15 in the nation in percentage of yards passing on offense. Meaning both teams are looking to push the ball down the field and, specifically, Notre Dame should have no issues throwing against the USC secondary as they give up 8.4 yards per pass and almost 2 more points than what opposing offenses are scoring. The Trojans and Irish are both in the top 50 in the country in points per play on offense and USC is one of the worst tackling offenses in the nation, according to PFF, ranking 104 in the nation. Additionally, the Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-1 in Trojans last 5 games overall. I expect this to be a back and forth game with a lot of points and the total landing in the 60s at least. Take Over 57.5
October 24th NFL Premium Play
2021 NFL: 14-9-1, +5.88u
I’m going to wait to see how today’s CFB action goes before making any other plays on the NFL card, but I want to go ahead and give this one out while it’s at this number. See below.
*NFL(1.5u): Bengals/Ravens OVER 46–Sun. Noon CT
The Bengals defense has performed well this season, but I’m not buying into the hype. Cincinnati has played weak offenses such as Detroit, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Chicago this season. Green Bay put up 25 points against this Bengals D a few weeks ago, but when you consider Mason Crosby missed 3 FG’s and an XP, it should’ve easily been a 30-35 point performance for Green Bay that day. Lamar Jackson provides a unique threat as a versatile QB that the Bengals simply haven’t proven that they can stop. With that being said, it’s hard to ignore how well the Bengals have looked offensively. Joe Burrow is living up to the hype, and his weapons on the outside(Higgins, Chase, etc.) are making his life much easier. It also helps that Burrow has a great talent sharing the backfield with him in RB Joe Mixon. Even going up against a stingy defense like Baltimore, I think the Bengals have a chance to flirt with the 24-25 point mark in this game. I expect each offense to take center stage and for this one to creep over posted total.
