Dodgers are batting .321, slugging .697 vs Alex Wood
The Giants lost all 3 games Wood has started vs Dodgers this season
Giants have scored 2 or fewer runs the last 6 games Scherzer has started against them
Scherzer’s teams have won the last 5 Postseason games he has started
The Red Sox took Game 3 of this series last night and now need just one more win to advance to the ALCS. They’ll turn to SP Eduardo Rodriguez tonight who is pitching on just 3 days rest after today’s projected SP Nick Pivetta was needed late last night. Rodriguez has poor numbers on the surface(4.74 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), yet his FIP, or expected ERA, sits at a much lower 3.31. Even though the analytical guys love Rodriguez, I simply can’t trust him in this sort of matchup. The Rays are among the best offenses in the league at hitting lefties, and once Rodriguez is pulled, the Red Sox will have to rely on a bullpen that amassed a measly 1.39 WHIP during the regular season. That lies in stark contrast to a Tampa Bay bullpen that posted a 1.15 WHIP this season, good for 2nd in all of baseball. The Rays will open with Colin McHugh and unload their bullpen from there, and quite honestly, I expect that strategy to work. The Boston offense is very good, so I won’t bother picking out numbers to prove otherwise, but Tampa holds the major pitching advantage entering this do-or-die Game 4. I like the Rays to squeak out a win in Boston today and force a Game 5 back in St. Petersburg.
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 23: Alex Wood #57 of the San Francisco Giants reacts after catching a line drive hit by Jazz Chisholm Jr. #2 of the Miami Marlins during the sixth inning at Oracle Park on April 23, 2021 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
After a profitable weekend in both CFB and the NFL, my October record now sits at 22-12-1, +12.23u. Following a 4-2 weekend on my premium plays, my premium record sits at 31-15-1 and has netted my members +25.25u. I have a premium play up for one of the ALDS games today. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): Giants ML(+170) @ Dodgers–8:37 PM CT
As expected, these teams split the first two games of this series in San Francisco. Now, moving to Los Angeles for Game 3, we’re seeing the Dodgers open as massive favorites given they’ll send their ace Max Scherzer to the mound. Scherzer has incredible numbers, and I won’t try to argue against that, but the Giants offense is no pushover themselves. While SFG tends to score more efficiently at home given the ideal hitting conditions, the wind at Dodger Stadium tonight is expected to be blowing 15+ mph out towards RF tonight. Scherzer is great, but he’s not immortal; I expect competitive AB’s from the Giants tonight. Giants SP Alex Wood is a former Dodger who has experience pitching in Dodger Stadium in the postseason. The Dodger lineup performs considerably worse against lefties than the average fan would think, so combined with a bullpen that had a league best 1.13 WHIP this season, I think the Giants can tame the Dodger bats and keep themselves in this game. +170 is too good of value to pass up with a team that won 100 games this season and is as sharp in all phases of the game as San Fran is. I also don’t hate playing against a very public team in the Dodgers that is always going to be a bit overvalued.
Monday night NFL AFC Total of the Month + Divisional Round Total of the Year headlines MLB. Early play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on Atlanta at 1:10 eastern. The Braves are home in game 3 after taking game 2 on the road in Milwaukee. Playoff home favorites are a solid 12-4 off a road dog win and prior road dog loss. The Braves have won the last 3 here with I. Anderson who went 6 strong allowing just a run vs Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost 5 of 6 as a playoff dog while the Braves are 6-0 as a playoff favorite. Look for the Braves to take game 3 today. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The Bengals have started the year 3-1, and the future is undeniably bright with Joe Burrow leading the way, but I’m not ready to crown them yet just because they beat Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. The Packers come into this one off 3 straight wins, and I like the way Aaron Rodgers has responded after a dismal Week 1 performance. The Packers are the more complete team at this point, and I think the market has overreacted to the Bengals’ success this season.
*NFL(1u): WFT +8.5 vs Saints AND Panthers +3 vs Eagles(-110)–Noon CT
Washington picked up a gutsy road win in Atlanta last week, and I believe Taylor Heinicke will be able to carry that momentum into today. WFT’s pass defense has been suspect at best this year, but Jameis Winston has a history with INT issues, and the Saints WR corps has yet to solidify itself. I’m not saying WFT will pull off the outright upset, but I do think this will be a one possession game. I’m going to continue playing against the Eagles until they give me a reason not to. While they did play Kansas City close for the majority of last week’s game, I’m not ready to trust Jalen Hurts in any spot right now, especially on the road against one of the more underrated teams in the league. Sam Darnold should have a chance at hitting on some deep balls today, and I’m willing to bet he hits on some of those chunk plays and gets the Panthers to 4-1.
The Jaguars are a BAD football team to begin with, and the last thing they needed was for their Head Coach to become a distraction off the field. I know Tennessee has looked spotty at times this year, but I actually like playing them here in a bounce back spot after a brutal loss to the Jets last week. Derrick Henry should be able to completely take over this game and open up the passing game for Ryan Tannehill. I’ll lay the 4.5 as my best bet for this NFL Sunday card.
Hey all! Steve and I went 5-0 last week and 4-1 in Week 3– let’s ride the train to more wins in Week 5! Below are our official Circa plays, enjoy!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 33-26 (56%), +19 units
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Chicago vs Las Vegas -5.5 O/U 44.5
The Narrative on this game since before the season even started has been that it will be a home game for the Bears because lots of their fans will go to Vegas, but I think that people are forgetting that there is travel, officiating, and a lack of similarity of their real stadium all baked into the 3 point advantage. This should be around a 2 assigned for The Raiders in their home field. I really do not understand why the Raiders are not a clean touchdown here. The Bears are absolutely terrible on offense and it’s even worse when it comes to road games with the Bears averaging only 184 yards per game away from Chicago. The Bears are also dead last in yards per play away from home at 3.3. One would think that the Bears defense could keep them in this game today but the stats say different. The Raiders rank 8th in QB pressure rate while the Bears rank 22nd. Both teams rank next to each other in defensive EPA per play and the Raiders get the nod on the offense. My power ratings has the Raiders winning by 7 points if you only give them 2 points for home field advantage. My Algorithm has the Raiders winning by 10. Going with the Raiders to win by margin.
LV Raiders -5.5 – 2 stars
Green Bay vs Cincinnati +3 O/U 50.5
Lots of people look at these teams and the first thing that they say is bad defense for both of these teams but the stats kinda tell a different story here. Cincinnati ranks number 7 in opponent EPA per play while Green Bay ranks 22nd even when counting that bad first game vs the Saints. Since that loss, Green bay has only allowed 17 points twice and 28 points to San Francisco that was mainly garbage yards and pass interference calls. Neither team has really been killing it in offensive EPA with Green Bay ranking 16th and Cincinnati ranking 22nd. Cincinnati also ranks 5th in defensive DVOA as well as opponent yards per play while Green Bay ranks 8th. I see both teams stopping each other to settle for FGs so I’ll take the under here.
Under 50.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Dallas to -1 with the Browns to +8 – 2 stars (this isn’t a premium)
Sunday card has the NFL Non Conference TOTAL of the YEAR and an NFL Executive Level TIER 1 Side headlining along with Divisional Round Game 2 Power System Plays and TOP 6* Sunday night Football. Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play is o Houston plus the 8-9 points at 1:00 eastern. Much like our play on the Jets last week from a similar bounce back off a shutout system we will have to hold our nose here. Houston actually fits an 84% Dog system as well. The Texans have covered 6 of 8 after scoring 14 or less and 4 of 5 as a dog. New England has failed to cover 8 of 9 off a spread win and 4 of 5 as a road favorite. This is alot of points to lay with a rookie Qb on the road pitting a pair of 1-3 teams. The mostly likely scenario here is a close New England win with the Texans hanging around for a spread win. Play on Houston plus the points. On Sunday a Powerful card is up with the NFL Non Conference Total of the Year going early, then an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 side later on and a 6* Sunday night Football play. We also have more Divisional Round MLB Playoff System plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the NFL Comp play. Take the Texans. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Total steamed up from 52 open because of Tennessee’s blowout of Missouri last week. Unfortunately Missouri is allowing the most Rush YPG in the country. South Carolina comes into this one relying on their defense as they have all year long due to their relatively unproductive offense (103rd Scoring). Tennessee’s offensive strength has been their run game (8th Rush YPG) and that is the Gamecocks weakness (68th v. Rush YPG)., so I understand why 67% tickets are on the over. Tennessee Coach Josh Heupel wants to run with his 10th nationally Scoring Offense. I understand why 67% tickets are on the over. But 60% of the money is on the Under. I hate Unders as much as the next guy, but oftentimes that is where the money is made. This game will be a clash of styles. South Carolina is 4-1 to the Under on the season, I know, because I’ve been riding this streak since the preseason injury woes at QB. I’ll keep on riding this one until SCAR’s defense or offense proves otherwise.
SCAR/ TEN UN 56.5 (-110) 1.1u
FAU at UAB -3.5
Buying low on UAB with their season opening QB out last week. Also the Blazers are off of a home loss against a good Liberty team. Selling high on FAU coming off a blowout win over a weak FIU squad last week. Huge disparity between 75% tickets on FAU to cover, yet only 56% of the money. Replacement QB for UAB got plenty of action last year so should adjust after a poor outing last week. UAB has a good team coming into the season expected to win the C-USA West. They can do it with their above average defense (45th Scoring Defense) against decent strength of schedule so far. FAU’s defense is not terrible either (63rd Scoring Defense). However, the Rush Defense is FAU’s weakness (121st Rush YPG), and UAB really wants to run the ball (Rush 41 att/pg v. 21 pass). This conference showdown should favor the home team.
