Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st! 41-32 in College Football up 15 Units and 33-30 in the NFL up 6U!
Penn State vs Iowa -1.5 O/U 41.5
This might be the biggest game of the weekend. Two huge undefeated Big 10 teams square off in the Midwest! This is also an ugly total here in this game, and it really says that points will be at a premium this game. Both of these teams have had the best starts in the big 10 along with Michigan but I still do not understand why Iowa isn’t the bigger favorite here and I do not understand the Penn State money bringing this so low. Strength of schedule is actually pretty equal on paper with these teams with the slight edge to Iowa especially now that Penn State’s victory over Wisconsin isn’t aging well. When it comes to Yards per play, Penn State definitely wins this one with a +1.89 net YPP to +.75 for Iowa, but going back to strength of schedule, The Nova blowout win for Penn State certainly throws off some of Penn State’s stats. Looking at EPA margin, Iowa edges out Penn State by 4 spots so no real advantage there. My biggest thing in this game is that Iowa’s defense should be good enough to win this game at home. Penn State relies big on their receivers Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, but Iowa has some of the best corners in all of college football with Matt Hankins and Riley Moss who could defend almost anybody 1 on 1. I like the fact that Iowa is on a little extra rest here and Spencer Petras is playing very well. I had Iowa Power rated higher than Penn State before the season started and I don’t think that anything needs to change here. I have Iowa by about 6 at home with the extra rest. I will take the Hawkeyes here as the short favorite.
Iowa -1.5 – 2.5 stars
Memphis vs Tulsa -3.5 O/U 62
Here is a battle of the underachievers from last week. Tulsa got destroyed at home vs Houston and Memphis dropped an ugly game at Temple. Looking at this game, both teams are a bit flawed. Memphis lost their quarterback Grant Gunnell due to injury early in the season which has put a bit of a stop to their high flying pass offense and Tulsa isn’t the same team from last year without Zaven Collins leading their defense who is now an NFL starter for the Cardinals as well as their QB Brady White who is finished in the league. Some of those wins in 2020 were also a bit lucky in my opinion. I am not really interested in a side in this game but the total sticks out to me some. Tulsa was embarrassed last week and should play more solid defense against a team who has been struggling at QB. Next important piece of information is that Tulsa can only move the ball with the run game this year, and that is where Memphis has been solid only allowing 3.56 yards per rush. Finally, there is going to be some wind this game around 15 MPH in Tulsa Oklahoma and that should hurt both teams passing situation. I am going to take the under 62 points and I like it down to 58.
Under 62 – 2 stars
LSU vs Kentucky -3.5 O/U 50.5
This is a spot play here for me and I also do not think that the right team is favored.
Kentucky did a great job last week beating rival Florida but let’s face it, Florida massively outgained the wildcats in yards and really blew the game more than Kentucky won it.
Up to the Florida game, Kentucky hasn’t really played anyone with a pulse and I do not think that Will levis can pass the ball all that great. Kentucky also should not be able to run much vs LSU being that the Tigers only allow 3.4 yards per rush. LSU at least beat Mississippi State on the road and had to weather the storm the first game of the season vs UCLA.
Max Johnson has been solid at QB so far for the Tigers and he has a nice 16-4 TD to interception ratio.
The biggest thing besides strength of schedule is the spot for Kentucky. They are in a massive let down situation and they have Georgia on Deck. I could see them laying down this game while LSU is more desperate after losing to Auburn.
I am going to take the Tigers here with the hook. I think that they could win this game out-right.
Huge Saturday up with BIG 10 Game of the Year + Executive Level TIER 1 Total, High Noon red river 6*, SEC Game of the Month, MLB, Soccer and Wilder vs Fury, College Comp play below.
The College Football Comp Play for Saturday is on Texas San Antonio plus the points at 7:00 eastern. UTSA has covered the last 7 on field turf and 8 of 9 as a road dog. They take on a Western Kentucky team that has failed to cover 25 of 33 after allowing 285+ pass yards,5 of 7 when favored and 6 of 8 off a loss. The Road runners are quietly taking points despite the 5-0 record. They fit a powerful long term system that plays on dogs of 3 or more vs a team that allowed more than 14 points in games 6. Look for UTSA to get the cover at the very least here today. On Saturday we have a tremendous card up led by the BIG 10 Game Of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Total, High Noon red river 6*, SEC Game of the Month, Platinum supreme Soccer, MLB Playoff System and Wilder vs Fury play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebok/twitter to Jump on and cash out on this huge card. For the College Football Comp play. Take the points with Texas San Antonio. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We went 2-2 in our free plus money playoff props yesterday which brings us to 6-4. I have 4 more plus money prop below for today. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units. Join at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Dansby Swanson owns an unbelievable 1.146 wOBA, 4 hits and 2 homeruns in 5 at bats against Corbin Burnes and in the last week of the season he hit to a .410 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 total bases
Yandy Diaz owns a .562 wOBA, 6 hits including 2 doubles and 1 triples in 12 at bats against Chris Sale and has a .328 wOBA and 1 homerun in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +140
Wander Franco owns a .889 wOBA, 4 hits including 1 triple and 1 homerun in 6 at bats against Chris Sale and .289 wOBA with 1 double in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +130
Justin Turner owns a .571 wOBA with 3 doubles in 7 at bats against Logan Webb and has a .498 wOBA with 2 homeruns in his last 20 at bats. Take Over 1.5 total bases +120
We went 2-2 in our free plus money playoff props yesterday which brings us to 7-4. I have one plus money prop below for the Braves and Brewers game with more to come in another article. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units. Grab our 1st MLB Postseason premium play for this game at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Dansby Swanson owns an unbelievable 1.146 wOBA, 4 hits and 2 homeruns in 5 at bats against Corbin Burnes and in the last week of the season he hit to a .410 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 total bases
With a premium winner on the Houston/Tulane OVER last night, I improved to 37-26-1, +18.01 in CFB this season. My premium record currently sits at 27-13-1, +21.38u, and I’ve got 5 premium plays for my members in this Week 6 slate. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Maryland TT UNDER 25(-120) @ Ohio State–Sat. 11 AM CT
Maryland was a public underdog last week against Iowa, and, well, we saw how that went. Taulia Tagovailoa threw 5 INT’s, and the Terps coughed the ball up 7 times. I had a premium winner on Iowa in that game because I couldn’t understand what people saw in the Terrapins offense. In their 3 games against FBS opponents leading up to last week, Maryland averaged less than 30 PPG, so last week’s result shouldn’t have been a major surprise. Ohio State’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of Iowa’s defense, but they certainly have the talent to be. This Buckeyes unit got off to a slow start in their first 3 games, and considering they’ve played Akron and Rutgers leading into this matchup, it’s hard to know if the defense has made the proper adjustments since DC Kerry Combs was demoted. I’m willing to bet they have, but this play more so stems from the fact that I still think this Maryland offense is being overvalued by the betting markets. I like the Buckeyes defense to continue their upward trend and show out nicely in front of a home crowd in Columbus.
*2 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Tennessee -4.5 vs South Carolina AND West Virginia +8.5 @ Baylor(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Tennessee absolutely exploded offensively last week, putting up 62 points and 683 total yards(458 on the ground) in a runaway win at Missouri. Ever since Hendon Hooker was inserted at QB, this Vols offense has clicked at a much higher rate. South Carolina’s one saving grace is their defense, but they will need a miracle performance from that unit to keep them in this game. The Gamecock offense has averaged just 14 PPG against FBS competition this year and simply doesn’t have the talent needed to go back and forth with a Josh Heupel led offense. I think the Vols will carry their momentum over from last week and win comfortably at home.
I would classify West Virginia as a team that plays exactly to the level of their competition. That’s great when playing a team that is much better than you, as shown by a close 3 point loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago. But that also leaves you vulnerable to losing games you shouldn’t, such as a home loss to Texas Tech last week. I’m frankly not that high on Baylor(I’m 2-1 betting against them this season), but they deserve to be favored at home. West Virginia will be bailed out by the fact that Baylor doesn’t generate explosive plays very effectively, so the hope is that Jarrett Doege and the Mountaineer offense can pull away with some deep shots of their own. I have no clue who will end up winning this game, but I feel very confident that it will be a one possession game in either direction.
*CFB(1u): East Carolina +10(-110) @ UCF–Sat. 5 PM CT
It’s only year 1 in Gus Malzahn’s tenure in Orlando, yet things have already gone haywire. UCF’s star QB and RB have gone down with serious(if not season-ending) injuries, and the usually relevant G5 program has already suffered 2 losses. Coming off a BYE week, the Knights laid a total egg last week in an outright loss to winless Navy. Now, they’ll have to recover quickly and face a stingy ECU team that has seen their stock trending upwards. After starting out the season 0-2, the Pirates have made a complete 180 on their season, winning each of its past 3 ballgames(key wins over Marshall and Tulsa). 4th year starting QB Holton Ahlers has this offense clicking on all cylinders right now, and while UCF’s defense is improved this season, there wasn’t much else to go but up for that unit. UCF QB Mikey Keene didn’t look horrible against Navy last week, but he’s still got a long ways to go in his development considering he’s a true freshman. The Pirates have a considerable edge at QB, and even though Ahlers will have to deal with the hostile environment that the Bounce House presents, his experience at this level should give him poise in this game. We’re catching a hot team at the right time getting 2 possessions worth of points in a game they wholeheartedly expect to win. Sign me up.
*CFB(1u): Notre Dame PK(-105) @ Virginia Tech–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Virginia Tech won in Week 1 in a standalone game against North Carolina; while impressive, I think that win has given the betting public the wrong impression of who this team is. We’ve since learned that North Carolina’s offensive line is absolutely horrendous(Sam Howell has been sacked 22 times through 5 games), so VaTech’s defensive effort in that game looks less special now than it did then. In their past 3 games, the Hokies have averaged less than 26 PPG(2 of those games were against Middle Tennessee and Richmond), and they lost outright to a fairly mediocre West Virginia team. QB Braxton Burmeister is not a huge threat through the air, and the RB’s lack the explosiveness that has plagued Notre Dame this season. The Irish are the much more battle-tested team entering this matchup, having already squared off against Florida State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Cincinnati. While the QB situation is uncertain entering this game, I expect either Jack Coan or Drew Pyne to provide a bigger threat in the passing game than Burmeister. We can’t forget that Justin Fuente’s seat was scorching hot entering the season, and for good reason. The Hokies have fallen from grace since he took that job, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the loss that finally forces him out of Blacksburg. Give me the Irish on the road in a pick-em game.
*CFB(1u): Kentucky TT UNDER 27(-120) vs LSU–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Tip your cap to Kentucky for pulling off the upset against Florida last week and improving to 5-0. But if they played Florida 10 times, I think they’d lose 7 or 8 of those 10 games. The Wildcats were out-gained 382-224 by Florida, yet a blocked field goal return for a TD and 115 yards worth of Gator penalties proved to be the difference. The reality is that Kentucky’s offense hasn’t improved much better despite bringing in a more modern system this offseason. Will Levis went 7/17 for 87 yards last week for crying out loud. LSU is at a crossroads with Ed Orgeron and just lost 2 key pieces on the defensive side of the ball(including CB Derek Stingley), but they aren’t sitting at 3-2 because of their defense. They have allowed a respectable 24.5 PPG in their 2 SEC games, and that came against decent offenses in Miss State and Auburn. Kentucky’s OL could easily get outmatched in this game by LSU’s big-bodied DL, which would force the Wildcats into some undesirable 3rd-and-long passing situations. Until Kentucky can prove some sort of competency . 27 is an awfully high Team Total for an offense that’s looked as bad as they have.
*CFB(1u): UCLA/Arizona 1H OVER 31(-110)–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
UCLA continued its inconsistencies last week with a blowout loss at home to an undervalued Arizona State team(I had Arizona St in a teaser that ended up cashing). The Bruins allowed numerous chunk plays both through the air and on the ground and simply couldn’t make up the deficit. Throw that result out, because this is a totally different class of matchup. Arizona hasn’t won a football game in almost 2 years dating back to 2019, so it’s going to take HC Jedd Fisch a little while to build this program back up. Perhaps the Wildcats can hang with UCLA up front, but they are very susceptible in their back 7 defensively. The Bruins have run the ball well this season with a 2-headed system, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson is plenty dynamic leading the offense. Chip Kelly and his crew should take out last week’s loss on a clearly outmatched Arizona defense early and often; in fact, it’s not out of the realm that they surpass the 31 point mark in the first half themselves. It’s likely that we’ll need some sort of output from the Wildcats, but it’s encouraging that they are coming off a BYE week. The ‘Cats offense has shown a willingness to go fast this season(78.7 plays/game), so combined with the extra time to prepare, I expect we see a refined attack against UCLA. I’ll play the 1H Over simply to protect myself from UCLA sitting on a big lead late in the game.
Nov 2, 2019; College Station, TX, USA; UTSA Roadrunners running back Sincere McCormick (23) runs against the Texas A&M Aggies during the first quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports
2021 CFB: 37-26-1, +18.01u
Premium Plays: 27-13-1, +21.38u
*CFB(2u): UTSA/Western Kentucky OVER 70(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Nothing like an ol’ Conference USA matchup for my best bet in this Week 6 College Football slate. While the general public might not know about either of these teams, I’ve been paying attention to each very closely this season. I’ve backed Western Kentucky a pair of times(2-0 on those bets) and have seen first-hand just how explosive their offense is. QB Bailey Zappe is putting up other-wordly numbers this season, averaging 428 yards/game through the air while completing 73% of his passes. Don’t let the Hilltoppers’ 1-3 record fool you; they’ve managed to put up 30+ points on Army, Indiana, and Michigan State this season. UTSA’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but this is by far the hardest test from an opposing offense they’ll see this season. As good as WKU’s offense has been, there is a reason they lost each of those aforementioned games: their defense stinks. UTSA stays committed to the running game behind RB Sincere McCormick(108 yards/game this season) but also have a dual-threat QB in Frank Harris, who has gone without a turnover in 4 of 5 games this season. What makes me so confident in this bet is that UTSA runs 84.8 plays/game, good for the 3rd most in College Football. Each team will have plenty of opportunities to put up points in this game, and I expect this one to sail considerably over the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Michigan State/Rutgers UNDER 52(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Michigan State’s undefeated start is one of the most surprising things I’ve seen this season. The betting market wasn’t high on the Spartans entering year 2 under Mel Tucker, but Tucker’s use of the transfer portal has made a sizable impact on this year’s team. They’ve recorded impressive wins against Miami and Nebraska already, and this will be another tough task. Rutgers started off 3-0 but has dropped its last 2 against Michigan and Ohio State over these last 2 weeks. The offense has too hard of a time generating explosive plays; QB Noah Vedral has yet to achieve greater than 6 yards/attempt in his 4 games against FBS competition this season. Sparty’s defense has looked really solid this season, so I’d expect to see Rutgers’ offensive woes continue. That being said, this Rutgers defense has proven they can keep the Scarlet Knights in games. They held a run-heavy Michigan offense to just 20 points and 3.3 ypc in Ann Arbor 2 weeks ago, so the blueprint is there facing a similar style of offense in Michigan State. Sparty RB Kenneth Walker III has been a godsend, but Nebraska showed 2 weeks ago that he can be beaten(61 yards on 19 carries in that game). QB Payton Thorne has yet to prove he can make big time throws in big time situations yet, so I expect the Rutgers defense to get some stops in front of what should be a raucous home crowd. Rutgers’ path to victory is via a low-scoring game; I expect this game to be competitive, but I believe there is more value on the Under at this number.
*CFB(1.5u): Georgia Tech/Duke OVER 61(-110)–Sat. 11:30 AM CT
Not very many people are drawn towards Duke football, and rightfully so. Their 3-2 record is a bit misleading considering those wins have come against North Carolina A&T, Kansas, and Northwestern. However, I do see some bright spots on their offense. QB Gunnar Holmberg is completing 72% of his passes this season and has also added 6 touchdowns on the ground. He is joined in the backfield by a hidden gem in RB Mateo Durant; Durant has eclipsed the 100 yard mark in 4 of his 5 games this season(including last week against UNC) and is averaging 6 ypc on the year. The Blue Devils run just over 80 plays/game, good for 8th in all of College Football, so the opportunities to score should be there against what is still an inconsistent Georgia Tech defense(gave up 52 to Pitt last week). I don’t worry hardly at all about Georgia Tech being able to score in this one. Duke has done a poor job of recruiting and developing players on the defensive side of the ball, and if allowing 33 points to Kansas doesn’t make that evident, I don’t know what will. The Yellow Jackets have gotten Jeff Sims integrated back as their starting QB, and I expect it to pay huge dividends down the stretch. Sims is completing 68.5% of his passes this season and specializes in hitting on the deep ball, but he is also averaging over 50 yards/game on the ground throughout his career. When you combine that with a solid 1-2 tandem at RB, this Yellow Jackets offense starts to look more and more explosive. I expect each offense to fair well in Durham on Saturday and for this one to fly over the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa ML(-125) vs Penn State–Sat. 3 PM CT
Until Iowa’s defense shows any sort of cracks, I simply can’t bet against them. The Hawkeyes lead the nation with 12 INT’s already this season; while turnovers can be unsustainable, I don’t think that’s the case with this defense. Iowa is confident they can win up front with their D-Line, so they lay back in quarters coverage and make the opposing QB beat them with his arm and mind. So far, the Hawkeyes have made a fool out of Michael Penix, Brock Purdy, and Taulia Tagovailoa, and I won’t be surprised if Penn State QB Sean Clifford is the next victim. Clifford is a serviceable QB, but he’s sort of a one trick pony; for instance, 8 of his 17 completions last week went to WR Jahan Dotson. Iowa has a great set of corners, so if they can limit Dotson’s damage, I expect to see Cilfford force some questionable throws to his other WR’s. There is virtually nothing special about Iowa’s offense; there is no doubt they’ve benefited greatly from their defense’s success. Still, QB Spencer Petras has shown extreme improvement from last season; he’s thrown just 1 INT this season and is coming off a game at Maryland where he threw for 259 yards and 3 TD’s while completing 70% of his passes. If Petras can just stay within himself, RB Tyler Goodson and the O-Line should have enough breathing room to put this game away. Iowa has given me no reason to bet against them in a near pick-em game; I still have my doubts about Penn State. Give me the Hawkeyes at home in front of a great home crowd.
*CFB(1u): Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER 51(-110)–Sat. 7 PM CT
It’s hard to find the path to points for Texas A&M in this game. The Aggies have put up 10 points vs Arkansas and 22 points against Mississippi State over the past 2 weeks, so facing Alabama’s vaunted defense is an absolute nightmare. Considering how well the Tide controlled a potent Ole Miss offensive attack last week, I feel comfortable saying that this Alabama defense is one of the best Nick Saban has had during his 10+ year dynasty in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s offense is full of playmakers as well, but I actually think they could have their struggles against this Aggie defense. A&M has allowed less than 15 PPG overall this season and are by no means what has led to a 3-2 start for the Aggies. As bulletproof as Alabama often seems, you still have to account for the fact that Bryce Young is a first year QB who will be making just his second true road start in his young career. Alabama got off a hot start in their game at Florida a few weeks ago, but the offense ran into some trouble in the second half and only ended up amassing 31 points in the close win. Kyle Field at night is no easy task for any QB, and given that there is still relative inexperience at the other offensive positions, I expect Alabama’s offense to have a down game. The Tide shouldn’t be in any real threat to lose this game, but I still expect a sloppy, low-scoring affair given the circumstances.
Hey all! Usually I do a write-up every week of one or two of my favorite NFL plays– this week it’s a video! Forgive me if I’m a little AMPED about this one; it features my New York Football Giants against their NFC East rival, the white hot Dallas Cowboys. Check it out!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 33-26 (56%), +19 units
