It’s your boy and we got some Free Picks for your weekend! Enjoy!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 11-2, +17.6 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
Run time: 1 minute, 43 seconds
Pitt -3 (-120)
*3 Star Free Pick* The Clemson Tigers are 0-6 ATS this year. Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to turn things around quickly, but at this point I have to take this team at face value. Clemson is a talented team with potential, but they consistently have been weak. The Tigers had a bye week to get ready for a mediocre Syracuse team and Clemson was fortunate to hold on for a 3 point win. Syracuse averaged 5.3 yards per play and Clemson averaged only 4.3 yards per play.
Clemson is +0.57 ypp margin on the year and most of that comes from their blowout over SC State (FCS team) earlier this year. They have been outgained by most of their FBS opponents. Pittsburgh is +1.85 ypp margin (12th in the country).
Kenny Pickett has the highest PFF grade of any quarterback in the country. The Pitt offense ranks 15th in the country in success rate. The Panthers offense has been much better this season, and they should be able to move the ball enough.
The one weakness for Pitt has been their pass defense, but Clemson is shorthanded at wide receiver and they rank 122nd in explosiveness so far this year.
I’ll fade Clemson here.
Take Pittsburgh.
*30-6 so far this year on college football totals. Grab my Totally Totals Package (All Totals Picks for one month) for just $200 here at The Oddsbreakers*
The NHL continues to roll with an action packed Saturday Slate. The biggest game of the day is probably the Colorado Avalanche taking on the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, we have a Eastern Conference matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils that caught my eye.
| Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total | |
| Buffalo Sabres | +127 | +150 | -1.5 (-175) | o6.5 (+100) |
| New Jersey Devils | -156 | -175 | +1.5 (+129) | u6.5 (-120) |
The Buffalo Sabres started this season a red hot 3-0, before losing to the Boston Bruins last night by a score of 4-1. In that game, the Sabres had plenty of chances but, could not find the back of the net. Craig Anderson, who had played well for them in his first three starts, had his worst outing finishing the game with a -0.69 GSAx. This team looks completely revitalized under Don Granato but, will face their first back to back game of the season. I doubt Anderson will start tonight, so it looks as though Dustin Tokarski will get the start in net. Tokarski only started one game this year where he faced the Arizona Coyotes finishing the game with a 0.92 GAA and a 0.02 GSAx. In addition to Buffalo’s first back to back game, this will be their first away game.
The New Jersey Devils are coming off a 4-1 loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday. Scott Wedgewood will mostly get the nod tomorrow, as Jonathan Bernier is questionable. Wedgewood has a -0.7 GSAx from his lone start this season. Jack Hughes is out for Devils tomorrow, but they may get Ty Smith back as has been upgraded to probable.
PICK: BUFFALO SABRES +150
The Sabres enter this game with a xGoals of 63.43% while the Devils have an xGoals % of 54.55%. Losing Jack Hughes will certainly not help that percentage either. The Sabres will also have the goalie advantage here if Tokarski and Wedgewood go. Overall, the Sabres have a better Corsi % and Fenwick % so at + odds, they have some value here.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
As of Wednesday Afternoon 10/20/21
Sharp Money On:
Sharp Totals:
We’ve started out the NBA season WHITE HOT, going 10-1 so far for +17.8 units. Sign up for my premium plays by clicking the below link and make sure to follow me on Twitter and on my BetUS shows for more NBA angles! Today I’m giving out these two picks below, both of which are premium, for free! Let’s go!
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
NBA 21/22 Season: 10-1, +17.8 units
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 46-40 (53%), +23 units
Pelicans +7 (-115), 2 units: If you can only get this number at 6.5, I still like it. The Pelicans played hard on Wednesday against the 76ers, but that just wasn’t a great spot for New Orleans against a Sixers team no doubt ultra-motivated after all the Ben Simmons nonsense. Philly shut down New Orleans in the 2nd half, limiting the Zion-less home team to only 44 points. While it wasn’t the Pelicans’ best look, I was impressed by their effort in the 1st half. New Orleans shot 43.3% from beyond the arc in that contest (Philly shot 52% from 3 point land, which is absurd) and they kept the game close until the 3rd quarter. Newly signed center Jonas Valanciunas didn’t have a great debut, shooting a putrid 3-19 for only 9 points, though he did snag 12 rebounds. I expect better things tonight against the Bulls, who already suffer from bad defense and below-average rim protection. Chicago won, and covered, but they were lucky to do both in their opening game. Zach LaVine had a great game, going 11-17 for 34 points, but the rest of the roster looked clumsy and out of sync. I don’t think the Bulls deserve a line this big just yet, especially after they barely out-played the lowly, talent-poor Pistons and got away with a win. Give me the points with the Pelicans in a good spot, motivated to not go 0-2, for 2 units.
Rockets/Thunder under 221.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a pretty simple handicap. Coach Silas and the Rockets’ front office made it clear this offseason– they’re building around their defense. Meanwhile they have one of the poorest rosters in the NBA from an offensive perspective, although maybe not as poor as the bottom-feeding Thunder. Oklahoma City got trounced by the Jazz in their opener, that’s nothing new, in a game where they only scored 86 points. I’m not sure why this total is set above 220, maybe it’s because of how fast Houston attempted to play Wednesday, but this number feels very inflated. I make this total closer to 205 (and that’s assuming that both of these teams experience some positive regression when they have the ball). Until proven otherwise, I’m going to keep playing unders on both of these teams, especially when they’re matched up against bad offenses or good defenses. Last year the Rockets were 27th in offensive efficiency and OKC was dead last in the association– I don’t think much has changed. I’ll take the under.
Heading out to Vegas this weekend for the Eagles game. However, I will not be attending the game in the stadium. Will be watching via poolside from a cabana and couldn’t be anymore AMPED! Will not really have time to write anything while there, so here are my 3 FREE PICKS this weekend into MNF:
Current NFL Season Record: 61-30 (67%), +37 units
Nyj +7 (-118) 1 unit:
As we all know the Jets got absolutely ROLLED the first time they met the Pats this season 25-6. Zach Wilson’s second NFL start against the rookie Qb killer coach Bill Belichick. It did not go well for him, trying to do too much, forcing throws, and leading to 4 ints on the day. This gave the Pats short fields and Mac Jones only had to manage the game. Going 22/30 186 0 tds 0 ints, not exactly lighting it up.
Now let’s fast forward to this week 7 match up. Zach Wilson has started to settle in, got his first win under his belt, and played well traveling to London. Coming off a bye week and having film on how the Pats played them in week 2, we will not see the same type of performance from Wilson. He will be more polished and is smart enough to not make the same mistakes twice. Pats have been in so many close games playing very well against their competition; giving everything they can week in and week out. At some point this can deflate a team when they aren’t being rewarded on the back end for their efforts. Based on bet percentages ATS I am seeing 80% on the pats and getting that 7 points makes me want to fade the majority. I like the Jets +7.
Phi +3 (-119) 1 unit:
It’s Vegas baby! Flashing lights, cards are flying, chips are stacking, and the Birds are covering.
I am not sure if this is a trend or not, but for some reason I absolutely love the Eagles when they are getting +3 on the road. It has panned out well for them against the Falcons and the Panthers. It will continue this weekend, here is why:
The Eagles are absolutely due for these deep ball attempts to start connecting. They have the speed on the outside and have just been slightly off via penalties or under/overthrows by Hurts. This offense can move the ball under Hurts, it just seems they have been doing it more in the 4th qtr rather than the entire game. This is exactly what they will finally give us this week, 4 solid qtrs of offensive production.
The Raiders had a great emotional win last week against the Broncos. After watching the Broncos a little closer last night, I am not so sure that win was exactly that impressive. Granted it was a short week for the Broncos and a lot of injures, but still. Raiders have a solid defensive front that will get after the Qb. However, there will be opportunities where they may over pursue a little too much and Hurts will make them pay with his legs. Raiders are 5-12 ATS last 17 games played in October and 2-6 ATS last 8 games played on Sunday. FLY-EAGLES-FLY +3.
No -5 (-103) 1 unit:
From the looks of what I saw last week against the Steelers, Geno Smith simply can’t throw the ball down field. This is a passing league and going against a Qb in Jameis Winston who is not afraid to air it out does not favor Geno and the Seahawks on MNF. Coming off a win and a bye the Saints are rested and in a good spot to extend their record. Granted the game will be in an electric atmosphere of Seattle, it will quickly deflate by the play of the Saints offense and lack of play/production by Geno. I am looking for the Saints to jump out to a quick double digit lead, Geno throw some picks, and this thing will be over by the end of the 3rd qtr. Saints -5.
Thank you everyone for your support! Best of luck to you all this week!
*Chelsea to WIN & Under 3.5 Goals vs Norwich (-110)
Lost on this exact bet in midweek. Chelsea scored one more goal than I needed when they beat Malmo 4-0. But I’m going with it again because Chelsea hasn’t scored more than three goals in a Premier League game this season. The blues have also only conceded three goals in those eight games played. Norwich is coming off of two 0-0 draws in a row, which proves they at least have the defensive stability to be a Premier League team. They have only conceded more than three goals once this season against an extremely attacking Manchester City side. On the attacking end is the problem for Norwich and against the strongest defensive team in the league, they will look to try and hold on for their third 0-0 result in a row. Chelsea should easily win this match, but with main goal threat, Romelu Lukaku out with an injury, Chelsea could struggle to find the back of the net. (-110)
*Leeds Draw or Win & Over 1.5 Goals vs Wolves (-115)
There’s a reason why Leeds sit at 17th in the table and are favorites against 10th place Wolves. Leeds’ last result was underwhelming, to say the least, but with a team lacking any real depth, missing Raphinha was a very key absence. With the Brazilian set to return to the line-up with much-needed rest, Leeds’ offensive output will be right back on track. Wolves are usually a low-scoring side, but their last two games have both had three and five goals scored, and it’s tough to predict any game with Leeds involved to be low-scoring. I expect Leeds to come out flying and score early which will force the game to open up. Leeds Double Chance & Over 1.5 Goals. (-115)
*Manchester United vs Liverpool — BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
Arguably the biggest game in all of sports, certainly one of the biggest rivalries ever to grace the footballing world. In Liverpool’s last eight away games they haven’t scored less than three goals in each of those matches. Manchester United on the other hand has only kept one clean sheet in their 12 contests this season. This game screams both teams to score. Manchester United’s last four games have all ended with both teams scoring, with three of those over 2.5 goals. Manchester United will still be without Raphael Varane in the heart of the defense, a key miss for a team struggling to keep clean sheets. When looking at Liverpool’s terrific away goalscoring record and United not keeping a clean sheet at home this season… on paper, this pick should be a lock. (-125)
*Manchester City to WIN & Under 4.5 Goals vs Brighton (-143)
No need to analyze any Manchester City stat because they are Manchester City. Other than conceding two against a top side in Liverpool and three in a thrilling 6-3 Champions League win vs Leipzig, City hasn’t conceded more than one goal this entire calendar year. Manchester City sits first in the league for passes, completed passes, and possession, they will possess the ball for the majority of the game, not allowing Brighton to continuously create quality chances. Brighton actually plays a very similar style to City but in no way can they beat them at their own game. With Man City having the joint-best defensive record and Brighton only having eight goals in as many games, this pick should be safe. Brighton also has an extremely good defensive record, only conceding five goals in eight games this season, good for third-best in the league. This defensive stability Brighton have will make this a lot closer of a game than some may expect and won’t allow City to just rack up the score. (-143)
In addition to these 5 free plays, I also have 7 CFB plays posted for my premium members. I’m 51-39-1(57%), +17.96u in CFB this season. My premium plays have hit at a 64% clip and netted my members +27.07u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Kansas State PK(-110) @ Texas Tech–Sat. 11 AM CT
Kansas State might be off to an 0-3 start in conference play, but they’ve played arguably the 3 best teams in the Big12(OU, ISU, OKST). I still like how the Wildcats are set up on both sides of the ball. QB Skylar Thompson is a 4-year starter who excels in his role as a “game manager”, and that’s all he really needs to do considering he shares the backfield with an elite RB in Deuce Vaughn. This Texas Tech defense has proven the can be vulnerable to dynamic offenses; they gave up 70 points to Texas as well as 52 to TCU. The combination of experience and talent in that K-State backfield should lead to a good day from their offense. Texas Tech is still without Tyler Shough at QB, meaning it will once again be backup Henry Colombi behind center for the Red Raiders. Colombi is serviceable, and he is helped out by the fact they have started to commit to the running game, but I don’t like how Tech matches up with Kansas State’s defense. The Wildcats have one of the best CB units in the conference, meaning that it won’t be easy for Colombi to strike in the vertical passing game. I can’t trust Colombi and this Tech offense to sustain drives and move the chains consistently. Kansas State should start to add some wins with some easier conference games on deck, and that starts on Saturday.
*CFB(1u): Oregon/UCLA 1H UNDER 28(+100)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The Oddsbreakers Podcast”, which was released on Thursday morning. Hear us break this down from 16:53 to 22:10 using the podcast link below.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oddsbreakers/id1252520163?i=1000539266714
*CFB(1u): Oregon +1 @ UCLA–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I didn’t give this out on the podcast, but since we recorded, I’ve decided to go ahead and back Oregon in this matchup. Sorry Kiev, but we’re going head-to-head on this one.
*CFB(1u): Maryland/Minnesota UNDER 55–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Minnesota is about as vanilla of an offense as you’re going to find in College Football. QB Tanner Morgan is attempting less than 20 passes/game because the Gophers are so thin at WR, and the Gophers are now down to their 3rd string RB with Mohamed Ibrahim and Trey Potts out for the season. To add insult to injury, Minnesota runs just 65 plays/game(110th in CFB). Maryland was burned for 66 points in their last game against Ohio State, but against weaker offenses such as West Virginia and Illinois, the Terps have actually proven to be a pretty tough out. Even though they gave up 51 points to Iowa, much of that was due to their offense turning the ball over a whopping 7 times. This won’t be an easy matchup for Taulia Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense by any means; Minnesota is allowing just over 15 PPG since their opening week loss to Ohio State. You would think Tagovailoa should come out with a good performance after a BYE week and a few rough games under his belt, but I simply can’t trust that given his past turnovers issues. Minnesota has a solid front 4 to go along with a good secondary. Minnesota is the home team and should be able to dictate the pace of this game, making this total of 55 clearly too high.
*CFB 2 Team Teaser(1u): Ole Miss -2.5 vs LSU AND Notre Dame -1 vs LSU(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Ole Miss enters this game coming off an emotional and physically demanding win at Tennessee last week. QB Matt Corral is not 100%, but I fully expect to see him behind center. This could be considered a let-down spot if we were to completely ignore who the opponent is, but the reality is that, despite LSU’s well-documented issues this season, they are still a brand-name program that is going to get each team’s best effort. I’d worry more about how this Ole Miss offense will stack up if they weren’t so efficient running the football, but because the Rebels deploy a 3-headed attack at RB, Corral won’t be forced to make every play to keep the offense moving. LSU is without their top 2 CB’s and have shown they can be beaten up front; while they did pull off the upset against Florida last week, they still gave up 42 points. LSU QB Max Johnson is without his top WR(Boutte), and while the Tigers have seemed to figure out the running game after a historically bad start to the season, I’m willing to bet they come back down to earth a little bit here. LSU is still a “play against” team in my mind given both their injury and HC situation, so I feel comfortable teasing Ole Miss down to -2.5.
Much like LSU, this USC team is in complete shambles right now. In their 3 losses to Stanford, Oregon State, and Utah, the Trojans have lost by an average of 16 points/game. Even though they are coming off a BYE week, this Trojans team has shown a lack of pride this season and will fold at the first sign of adversity. Notre Dame, on the other hand, has scratched and clawed all year. Brian Kelly has done a fantastic coaching job to get a limited Fighting Irish team as far as he has, and I’m willing to bet we see the offense humming coming off a BYE week. This is expected to be a cold weather game, which obviously favors the Irish over the team from SoCal that is already soft to begin with. It’s very hard for me to envision Notre Dame not pulling this one out.
