MLB
Game 1 ALDS
White Sox at Astros 4:07 pm
Lynn vs McCullers
Pick: HOU Over 3.5 (-130) 1 unit
Astros love hitting against Lance Lynn
-Lynn 8.80 ERA last 5 vs HOU
-HOU hitters batting .321 lifetime vs Lynn
-Lynn has allowed 4 or more runs in each of last 5 starts vs HOU
-CHW 6-15 last 21 meetings
The iconic FIFA World Cup trophy displayed with background of city skyline. (photo by news.miami.edu)
*I have to say, betting International Football is one of my favorites to gamble on. A couple
unders on the card for the first round of matches. Part of the reasoning is due to the fact that there is a lack of cohesion at times during the first round of the international games. Players are all coming off important games with their club teams and then get thrown into playing with an entirely new set of players that they don’t play with all that often. For some teams, it takes a while for them to settle and produce that flow offensively.
*WCQ: Republic of Ireland to WIN (+115) vs Azerbaijan
The last time these two teams played was on September 4th during the previous international break. It finished 1-1, and the Irish supporters were livid with the outcome against lower-level opposition. In this game, Ireland had 21 shots to Azerbaijan’s 10, with 59% possession. Now, this is an important game for Ireland and one they desperately need to win to have any hope at qualification. They are helped by having many Premier League players opposed to Azerbaijan who have a team with no significant high-class talent. Both teams are yet to grab a win in the group yet but expect Ireland to take advantage of a weak Azerbaijan side and grab this all-important victory.
*WCQ: Hungary Win or Draw & Under 2.5 Goals (-115) vs Albania
Both of these teams are very sound defensively when coming up against similar level opposition as we see here. Aside from against the two frontrunners of this group, England and Poland, Albania is yet to concede a goal against any other side, while Hungary has only conceded three with a very impressive EURO 2020 run lodged in-between. The last game between these two finished 1-0 to Albania. A total of only five shots on goal were created that day, in a game decided by an 87th-minute winner. Albania sits second in the group but three points for Hungary could lift them a point above the Albanians. So with that, expect Albania to play pretty defensively and gladly take a draw against a good Hungary side away from home. The Hungarians will be playing the game with no fans in the stadium, which in my opinion only will help this one become a very low-scoring affair. I could see Hungary snatching this one in the same fashion as Albania did in September, in a match where a win is needed much more for Hungary than it is for Albania.
*WCQ: Austria to Win to Nil (-118) vs Faroe Islands
The Faroe Islands are just not good. They have only scored four goals in the group so far with three of them coming against last place, Moldova. The other goal came in a 3-1 defeat to Austria in the last game these two sides played. No doubt that the Austrians win this game, but I also have no doubt that the Faroe Islands will be kept off of the scoresheet. Obviously, one main reason is just that Austria has such quality in their team as opposed to the players of Faroe Islands. In their last matchup, Austria had 27 shots to nine and controlled 71% of the possession. Yes, Faroe Islands did grab one against Austria last time, but it happens, and all that could lose this bet is a mistake or unlucky bounce leading to a goal. Other than that, this bet is safe.
*WCQ: Switzerland to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (-130) vs Northern Ireland
These two sides faced off very recently in September and the contest ended 0-0. Switzerland did miss a penalty but they also only created three shots on target. Three shots on target are pretty worrying when we are looking to get a win from them. But, Northern Ireland didn’t manage a single shot on target throughout the 90 minutes and only had 25% possession in that time. There was absolutely no goal threat from the Northern Irish. Considering this game was away from home for the Swiss, the result wasn’t a bad one. Switzerland are second in the group behind Italy and are yet to lose a game so far. In four games played, they have only conceded one goal and scored four. So, they rarely concede and are also pretty minimal on the scoring front. At home against a very underwhelming Northern Ireland side should see a comfortable performance lead to an easy 1,2 or 3-0 win.
*WCQ Can’t Lose Parlay: (Serbia to Win) + (Scotland vs Israel Under 1.5 First Half Goals) (-118)
LOVED these two picks separately but the odds were just not good enough to be giving them out as picks. BUT, adding them together creates a parlay that CANNOT lose. Let’s start with Serbia to win against Luxembourg. The odds for this separately sit at (-250). Serbia are yet to lose a game in the group, including a difficult match against Portugal. They are solid. They have the talent and cohesion to be a very good team. The last match between the two in September finished 4-1 to Serbia and they absolutely controlled the game. Eight shots on target to Luxembourg’s one, 54% possession, and a dominating scoreline. Serbia will be too much again for the weaker Luxembourg.
Now for Scotland vs Israel under 1.5 first-half goals. The line for this one sits at (-334). I have hit on 3/4 when picking Scotland games to be 0-0 at the half. They are just that team. These two teams have played three competitive games in recent times which have all ended the half with one goal or less. The games have all ended up finishing in two goals or less. Both teams are solid defensively and although they both contain some attacking talent, the creativity and chemistry aren’t fully there. This could come down to the reasoning given at the beginning of the piece, and I don’t see this trend going in any other direction. I expect a 0-0 first-half scoreline, and I will also be betting that at (+150), but under 1.5 first-half goals is VERY safe and will definitely hit.
We went 3-0 in our free plus money playoff props last night which brings us to 5-2. Below are 4 more plus money props for the games today. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units and are looking for our 1st MLB Postseason Premium Pick!! We do have a Premium NFL play available for tonight atSPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Jose Altuve owns a .432 wOBA, 3 doubles and 2 homeruns off Lance Lynn in 34 at bats and has a .381 wOBA, 2 doubles and 1 homerun in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +120
Hunter Renfroe owns a .471 wOBA and 1 homerun while hitting .375 in 8 at bats against Shane McClanahan and has hit to a .326 wOBA and has hit 3 homeruns in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +125 and Over 0.5 homeruns +400
Randy Arozarena owns a .353 wOBA and 1 double while hitting .364 in 11 at bats against Eduardo Rodriguez and has a .414 wOBA, 1 double and 1 homerun in the last 7 days. Take Over 1.5 total bases +125
I started out the Postseason with a winner on the F5 UNDER in the Cards/Dodgers last night. Today, I’ve got another 1u MLB free play in addition to a premium play in CFB. My premium record sits at 26-13-1 and has netted my members +20.38u in just over a month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): White Sox/Astros OVER 8(+100)–3:07 PM CT
The White Sox and Astros both feature offenses that were among the best in the league all throughout the regular season; that stands true in both the batting average and power department. While each SP has good surface numbers, I believe each is vulnerable to some trouble today. Lance McCullers had a somewhat measly 1.22 WHIP this season due to the fact he walked 4.2 batters/9 innings. His 3.16 ERA has masked these issues, but come the postseason, a walk rate that high can have serious ramifications. Houston’s bullpen is certainly not its strength as a team, and if McCullers struggles with walks, they could be given the responsibilities of this game earlier than wanted. I like the White Sox to take advantage of some sloppiness on the mound and keep themselves in this game. White Sox SP Lance Lynn had a sub-3.00 ERA in the regular season, but I don’t see that translating into the postseason. Chicago played in the easiest division in baseball that didn’t feature must resistance from opposing offenses; this Astros lineup is a far cry from the other AL Central lineups. 5 of the projected starters for Houston today have a career OPS over 1.000 in their past matchups with Lynn, and the veteran righty has struggled a bit on the road(1.21 WHIP). The Astros offense really kicked it into gear to close out the season; even though the White Sox have an above average bullpen, I’ll still put my trust in the Houston bats. 8 is a fair total given it is the postseason, but each of these offenses have what it takes to send this Game 1 over the total.
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 32-26 (55%), +16 units
Thursday card has the 3x Perfect NFC West Game Of The Month, 5* Afternoon Soccer, MLB Divisional Series system, CFB Game Of The week headlining. Soccer Comp Below.
The Thursday Comp Play is on Mexico over Canada at 9:40 eastern in World Cup Qualifier Play. These two met in late summer in the Gold Cup Final in a fiercely competitive game that Mexico won late. In Fact Mexico has taken the last 5 meetings from Canada and have found the back of the net at least twice in the last 7 matches against the Canadians. Mexico is on top of the standings with 2 wins and draw so far. Canada comes in off a pair of draws and wont win here in Mexico. The most likely scenario is another Tight win for Mexico. On Thursday the NFC West Game Of The Month is up along with the College Play of the Week, 5* World Cup Qualifier Soccer and MLB Divisional Series System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and cash out. For the Soccer Play. Make it Mexico. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We had 4 plus money free plays for you last night and cashed 2 of them. Tonight, we have 3 more plus money props for the NL Wild Card game. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units and are looking for our 1st MLB Postseason Premium Pick!! Join now atSPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Tommy Edman owns a .471 wOBA, 1 double and 1 homerun while hitting .364 in 11 at bats against Max Scherzer and has hit 1 homerun and leads the Cardinals with 8 hard hits and a 50% hard hit rate in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +135
Trea Turner owns a .405 wOBA and 2 doubles while hitting .421 against in 19 at bats against Adam Wainwright and in the past week has hit 2 doubles and 3 homeruns while hitting .458 and owning a .574 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 hits +170
Justin Turner owns a .377 wOBA and 2 doubles while hitting .333 in 9 at bats against Adam Wainwright and in the past week has hit 1 double and 2 homeruns while hitting .353 and owning a .498 wOBA. Take 1.5 total bases +110
We had a fantastic weekend in Week 4, going 10-4 overall in single ATS premium picks for +15 units. That’s a record of 18-11 for +21 units the last 2 weeks! We also went 2-0 in free picks last week. Rollin’ with that energy, here’s a free pick for TNF!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 32-26 (55%), +16 units
Rams -2.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I really wanted to take the Seahawks in this game, at home, but I think this is going to be a different year for Seattle. I bet on the Seahawks last week to win outright against the 49ers and that’s what happened. As usual, Russel Wilson continues to hold this team squarely on his shoulders, but the reality is the Seattle Seahawks are a team hurting for consistency on both sides of the ball. Let’s look at some alarming numbers that stand out about Seattle, according to Sharp Football Analysis:
The Seahawks are last (32nd) in the NFL in plays per game and last in opponent’s plays per game. This is usually an indicator of very poor performing teams.
Seattle is allowing a league-high 462.8 yards from scrimmage per game.
The Seattle pass defense is not pressuring the quarterback (ranked 22nd) and is allowing 19.9 passing points per game (29th).
The Seahawks have run just four offensive plays inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the fewest in the league.
Seattle has 32 fewer first downs than their opponent, ahead of only the Texans (-36).
Yikes. It’s reasonable to say that if this was any other team in the NFL without QB Russel Wilson, I don’t know if Seattle wins a game. The Seahawks were fortunate that Jimmy G. got injured during last week’s contest. An unprepared Trey Lance came into that game and did his best, but Shanahan didn’t have a week to strategize and innovate with his rookie talent. Something tells me the Niners will look more buttoned up this week, but that’s not the game we’re talking about.
The Rams got embarrassed last Sunday by Arizona and now they have a short week, on the road, up in the Pacific Northwest with Seattle’s infamous “12th man” in attendance. Clearly that’s not an ideal spot, but I still think it’s a better situational angle than the Seahawks. The Seahawks feel fortunate, the Rams are pissed, and there’s some alarming differences about these two teams that could mean sure disaster for the home team.
While Seattle has struggled to stop the pass and maintain their own pass-rush all season, the Rams have a +9 sack differential. That’s the largest in the NFL. We’ve seen Wilson’s offensive line let him down time and time again and after last week’s beatdown by the Cardinals, something tells me Aaron Donald and the elite front-7 of the Rams will get to Wilson frequently in this contest. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, who had his worst game of the year last week, should have all day to pass and should experience some significant positive regression. Neither of these teams can run the ball well but if the Rams are poised to show a more balanced offense, this is the game to do it. The Seahawks allow an NFL-worst 152 rushing yards per game thus far. Los Angeles has faced some of the better run defenses in the league to this point– Tampa, Indy, Chicago– Seattle won’t present the same level of difficulty.
LAR is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Sean McVay and the vaunted Rams got whacked last week and the last thing they want (or need) is to go down 2 games to the red-hot Cardinals. I’m on the Rams to get a win and cover on Thursday night.
*CFB(1u): Houston/Tulane OVER 59.5(-110)–Thurs. 6:30 PM CT
Tulane might be 1-4 on the season, but I think they are a live dog in this one against an overvalued Houston team. The Green Wave played Oklahoma to a 1 possession game to start the season despite being distracted by Hurricane Ida. Things have gone a bit haywire since then; last week, for example, they got down 17-0 to East Carolina in the first quarter and simply couldn’t make up that margin. The defense has failed them up to this point, giving up 61 to Ole Miss and 52 to the aforementioned East Carolina. Houston is led by offensive-minded HC Dana Holgerson, and his Cougars are coming off an impressive 45 point performance at Tulsa. Even if Tulane makes marginal improvement defensively, they are almost guaranteed to allow the Cougars into the 30-35 point range. However, where I feel great about this Over is with the Tulane offense. Michael Pratt is still a young QB who’s prone to mistakes, but he has proven to be capable of leading an explosive offense. He benefits from having 2-3 explosive RB’s to work with as well as an array of reliable WR’s. The 52-29 final might not make this obvious, but I believe the Green Wave found something in the second half last week in Greenville. Houston has only faced 1 solid offense this season(Texas Tech), and they allowed 38 points. Tulane plays with more tempo than any team Houston has faced this season; combined with Tulane’s desperation, I expect to see a solid offensive output from the Green Wave. Dana Holgerson is absolutely willing to match the up-tempo nature from the Green Wave, so I think each of these teams will have plenty of chances to put a dent in the scoreboard. Over is the play.