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College Football Week 8 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here.   You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st! 

Oregon vs UCLA -1.5 O/U 59

What is Oregon?   Are they the team that can beat Ohio State or the team that loses to a banged up Stanford.   The answer to that is both but that doesn’t mean that they are better than UCLA.  Looking at strength of schedule both are pretty comparable with both teams facing one team in the top 15 in power ratings and EPA Margin while both teams struggled vs Fresno State from the Mountain West.  Looking at the metrics, both teams run the ball very well at about 5 – 5.1 yards per rush but UCLA stops the run better allowing 3 yards per rush compared to Oregon’s 3.7.  Advantage UCLA.  Oregon throws the ball at a nice 8.5 yards per pass attempt while UCLA is at 7.8, however, Oregon’s Pass EPA is 71st while UCLA’s is 33rd.  However, UCLA only allows 6.9 yards per passing attempt to Oregon’s 7.5.   Oregon’s opponent EPA per pass is much lower being that their defense tightens up more on 3rd and 4th down than UCLA’s had in the past.  This is close to a push here.  The thing that gets me over the edge is the low spread of -1.5 and the fact that UCLA ranks 35th in explosive plays compared to Oregon ranking 94th.  I also like the fact that Chip Kelly still has a chip on his shoulder wanting to beat his former team here.   I think that the team rallies around him this game.

UCLA -1.5 – 3 stars 

Clemson vs Pittsburgh -3 O/U 48

This game is really about metrics vs Perception.   What is Clemson this year?  Talentwise, they should be way better than they have been yet they look completely average on paper.  We already know that Clemson has lost 2 games but after I saw them compete in the ACC, I am not even sure that the Market has caught up with them.   Clemson ranks 2nd to last which is 129th in ATS Margin at -11.8 per game.   That means the line has not been set and bet correctly on them all year long.  In saying that, Pittsburgh is number 1 in ATS margin at +12.8 meaning the market has been way too low on this team.  Metrically, Pittsburgh blows Clemson away in EPA margin ranking 10th to Clemson’s 87th.  Both teams stop the run well allowing 3.1 yards per rush yet Clemson is a bit better against the pass.   Too bad DJ Uiagalelei can’t really throw the ball.  From a passing perspective it isn’t even close, Pittsburgh averages 9.6 yards per pass to Clemson’s 5.7.  The Panthers also have a big 1.28 net yard per play advantage over the Tigers.  The thing that gives me pause in this game is that we haven’t seen Clemson as a dog in  the ACC in a very very log time.  Since 2012, Clemson has only been a dog 12 times and they are 12-5 ATS in that position.  What puts me over the edge is that this is the F-you game for Pittsburgh here.   I can’t remember the last time Pittsburgh had the chance to win this game and this is the spot where they can get all that sweet sweet redemption against a very venerable offense.  Brett Venables is also been Brett Venerable lately on defense.  My power number is -3 but my metrics show Pittsburgh winning 24-17.  I am taking Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh -3 – 2.5 stars

Ohio State vs Indiana -21 O/U 60

This is an interesting spot for Ohio State because they have been rolling since that debacle at home vs Oregon.  Their defense has greatly improved and QB CJ Stroud is starting to put up Justin Fields type numbers.  Metrically speaking, Ohio State has all the advantages in offensive rushing, passing and defensive rushing but a good margin except for the fact that Indiana shows a little better against the pass at least in yards per attempt.  Now what I will say for the sake of Indiana here is that their schedule has been absolutely brutal facing Iowa, Penn State, Cincinnati and Michigan State.  Don’t forget that Western Kentucky isn’t a bad team at all either.  Ohio State, since the Oregon game, has faced absolute garbage and their stats have been padded because of it.  Now we don’t know who is quarterbacking for Indiana here but it isn’t a big drop-off going from Michael Penix to Jack Tuttle and this Indiana team played very well with Ohio State last year.  Ohio State could be a little flat in this spot if they get caught looking ahead to Penn State this but at the same time, my number on this game is Ohio State -18.   I am going to be a player on Indiana when this number gets past 21 so wait it out if it isn’t.

Indiana +21.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi All!

First, I wanted to give a brief overview of how I allocate units and what I intend for you when I assign 1-5 stars to plays.
If I say, for example, that I like the 76ers at +3 for 2 stars ** at a VIG of -110, that means I’m putting enough money on that bet to WIN 2 units. If 1 unit is $100, I would need to put $220 to win $200 on that bet. If I win, I win an even 2 units. If I lose, I’d have to subtract by the decimal point of what I lost (2.2 units in the above case).
Conversely, if I say I like Utah State (+130) for 2 units, you would only have to lay 1.54 units to win 2 units, or $154 to win $200 if your unit size is $100.
I hope this makes sense and lmk if you have any questions!
Another great night Thursday! 2-0 in the NBA and our DEN/CLE under pick hit!
NBA Picks, 10.22:
  • Pelicans +7 ** (The Bulls are overrated at this point and although they won and covered 2 nights ago, they were very fortunate to do so. The Pelicans played hard against Philly and will be motivated to not go 0-2, even without Zion. I like the addition of Valanciunas and expect a much better offensive performance from him tonight)
  • Thunder/Rockets under 223 ** (The Rockets are building a culture of defensive prowess, and both of these rosters are among the most talent-poor on the offensive side. This line is dropping! Snag it at anything under 220)
CFB Picks, Week 8 (more TBD):
  • Utah State wins **
  • Florida State -35.5 **
  • LSU +9 **
  • Cincinnati -28 ***
  • UCLA wins **
  • Oklahoma State +7 **
  • Pitt -3 **
  • USC +7 ***
  • Wisconsin -3.5 **

Week 8 CFB Premium Card

By
Michael Fordham
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2021 CFB: 51-39-1(57%), +17.96u

Premium Plays: 38-20-1(65%), +27.07u

*CFB(1.5u): Kansas State/Texas Tech UNDER 60.5–Sat. 11 AM CT

Kansas State runs the fewest plays/game in all of college football(59), which limits their possessions as well as their opponents’. While the Wildcat defense has allowed 35 PPG over their last 2 games against Oklahoma and Iowa State, it has taken uber-efficient performances from each of their opponents to have that kind of success. Texas Tech is still stuck playing their backup QB Henry Colombi; aside from the occasional connection on a deep throw, he doesn’t provide the same type of threat that K-State has been accustomed to this season. The Red Raiders are starting to rely more on their ground game with RB SaRodorick Thompson back healthy; running just 68.5 plays/game, this Tech offense doesn’t fit the up-tempo, high-flying stereotype that is typically applied to them. As long as Kansas State can limit the breakaway runs from Thompson, they should limit Tech’s explosiveness through the air given they have one of the better CB combos in the Big 12. Texas Tech has struggled with dynamic offenses like Texas and TCU this season, but against more mediocre offenses(Houston, West Virginia, etc.), they’ve actually held up pretty well. The Red Raiders’ strength on D is in their LB room, which should set them up well to contain the threat of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. Wildcat QB Skylar Thompson is much more of a game manager and isn’t going to be asked to throw the ball all over the yard. Given the lack of possessions each team expects to receive as well as how these teams match up, this total just above 60 is far too high.

*CFB(1.5u): Pitt -3 vs Clemson–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The OddsBreakers Podcast”, which aired Thursday morning. Thankfully, this line hasn’t moved since we recorded. Catch our breakdown from 22:12 to 29:59 using the podcast link below; me and Kiev are both in agreement that Pitt is the right side. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oddsbreakers/id1252520163?i=1000539266714

*CFB(1u): Florida State -35.5 vs UMASS–Sat. 11 AM CT

Is Florida State a particularly good football team? No. Is there any reason they shouldn’t win this game by 50? Also no. UMASS is a bottom dweller in the FBS, which can best be confirmed by the fact that they were tied with UCONN heading into the 4th quarter of their last game. Florida State stumbled out of the gates to an 0-4 start, but they’ve seemed to turn a corner coming off 2 straight wins against Syracuse and North Carolina. Rarely would I ever lay over 5 TD’s with a 2-4 team, but that should tell you how confident I am that the ‘Noles win by half-a-hundred tomorrow. 

*CFB(1u): Ole Miss -8.5 vs LSU–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

LSU completed one of the weirder upsets I’ve ever seen when they beat Florida last week. Coming off 2 straight demoralizing losses to Auburn and Kentucky that sealed Coach O’s fate, the Tigers looked like an inspired group last week. That’s great and all, but it still wasn’t good enough to save their HC’s job; it was announced a day after their win that Orgeron would be gone after the season. I certainly don’t think that dynamic helps entering this matchup, but aside from playing psychologist, the Tigers simply don’t match up well with this Ole Miss team. Without their top 2 CB’s, this LSU defense is going to have a tough time dealing with what is arguably the best offense in College Football. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is terrific as both a runner and passer, but what really makes the Rebel offense go is their 3-headed RB-by-committee approach. The Rebs have totally bullied teams in the run game this season, rushing for 263 yards/game(good for 7th in CFB). If the Rebs can get things clicking early on offense, this LSU defense has proven to lay down and quit once they’re down(see the Kentucky game 2 weeks ago). While the Tigers’ run game was historically bad for most of the season, I’ll concede that they’ve seemed to figure things out over the last 2 weeks. This Ole Miss defense could be tired coming off a high-paced game at Tennessee last week, but they’re a much improved unit that should be able to win up front and get some pressure on the immobile Max Johnson. If Ole Miss gets out to a hot start, I think this should be an easy cover. But, in any case, I think Ole Miss’s offensive explosivity is going to win out and yield a double-digit Rebs victory. 

*2 Team CFB Teaser(1u): Iowa State -1 vs Oklahoma State AND Oklahoma State/Iowa State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Oklahoma State might be undefeated, but I think they’ll probably finish 3-3 down the stretch. They’ve won a ton of close games and caught some good breaks, but the offense has shown almost no development throughout the course of the season. Mike Gundy is usually a creative play-caller, but because he can’t trust QB Spencer Sanders to take care of the ball, the Cowboys often revert to a predictable run-first offense. Iowa State faced a similar style of offense in Kansas State last week and is set up well at all three levels defensively to shut down what is simply not a good Oklahoma State offense. With that said, I believe Oklahoma State has the best defense in the Big 12. They completely shut down Texas in the second half(the Horns had just 1 yard in the 4Q) and showed sure tackling and physicality up front throughout the game. Iowa State RB Breece Hall is among the best backs in College Football, but I trust Oklahoma State’s solid group of LB’s to contain Hall and put this game on the arm of Brock Purdy. Purdy is a 4th year player who should be able to move the chains, but because the Cyclones don’t have much explosiveness on the outside, he is usually forced to target his TE’s over the middle of the field. While ISU can be pretty efficient, this style of play leads to them running just 67 plays/game(99th in CFB). I’m confident Purdy and the Cyclones get it done, but I also think this is a very low-scoring game where we see each defense take the forefront. I’ll tease Iowa State down to a 1 point favorite and take the Under at an inflated 53. 

*CFB(1u): Boston College +5.5 @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT

Boston College took a major hit to their high hopes for this season when QB Phil Jurkovec suffered a season-ending hand injury. Dennis Grosel has had mixed results filling in Jurkovec’s place, which includes both a nice win against Missouri but also a blowout loss last week to NC State in a game they were just 3 point home underdogs. I’m willing to put last week’s result aside and simply acknowledge that Jeff Hafley has proven to be a better HC already in year 2 than Louisville’s Scott Satterfield. The Cardinals’ roster is filled with talent, yet they always seem to find ways to lose games at the end. QB Malik Cunningham is a true dual-threat talent, but I’m not completely sold that he has evaded the turnover issues that have haunted him in the past. Hafley is a defensive-minded HC(was previously the DC at Ohio State), and I’d expect a good gameplan from him and his staff after a disappointing result last week. Louisville has a pretty soft defense, and given BC’s success in the run game this year, this seems like a perfect “get right” spot for the Golden Eagles. I’ll put a standard 1u play on BC +5.5, but I’ll also sprinkle 0.5u on the ML at a valuable +180. 

*CFB(0.5u): Boston College ML(+180) @ Louisville–Sat. 3 PM CT

See analysis above.

NCAAF- CSU at USU Total Play

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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It’s Utah State’s Homecoming game so the crowd should be electric in Logan. In Colorado State, we have a team that hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard. The Rams have been winning with their defense (21st vs Pass YPG/ 16th vs Rush YPG). But the Rams haven’t faced a team able to pass like Utah State can. The Aggies have yet to lead in any 1st half this season, but has been able to comeback in their four wins with their 15th-ranked pass YPG.

USU’s 1H losing trend is worth watching, but the money has been coming in on the Aggies to break that trend, moving that line from +1.5 to +0.5. I’d rather hit the 1H UN 29 because of their slow starts, but it’s not available everywhere. Regardless, I see CSU playing keep away in this one (36th in time of possession), and running the ball as much as possible against the 118th rush defense. With the expectation that the Rams will lean on their defense I like the UNDER here. This total opened 54.5, and the money moved it to 58- past a key number of 57. After watching the Aggies struggle to score against UNLV last week, I have to take the under!

CSU/ USU UN 58 (-120) 1.2u

College Football Week 8 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday Afternoon 10/20/21:

Sharp Action On:

  • Louisiana -15 to -18 at Arkansas State – 89% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • FAU -4 to -7 at Charlotte – 40% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Memphis +7 to +1 at UCF – 73% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Pittsburgh PK to -3 hosting Clemson – 60% tickets and 83% of the money.
  • Toledo +3.5 to +2.5 hosting Western Michigan – 40% tickets and 83% of the money.
  • UCLA -1.5  hosting Oregon – 36% tickets and 72% of the money.
  • San Diego State +4.5 to +3.5 hosting Air Force – 65% tickets and 77% of the money.
  • LA Tech +7 hosting UTSA – 28% tickets and 87% of the money.
  • Oregon State +3.5 to +3 hosting Utah – 47% tickets and 92% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Cincinnati vs Navy under 53 to 48.5 – 46% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Texas State vs Georgia State over 60 – 56% tickets and 98% of the money.
  • Liberty vs North Texas under 62.5 to 60 – 29% tickets and 76% of the money.
  • NC State vs Miami over 51.5 – 45% tickets and 91% of the money.
  • West Virginia vs TCU under 59 to 57 – 48% tickets and 95% of the money.

 

College Football Free Play – Late Night KNAction

By
Shawn Knoche
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When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.

So far the CFB season has been good. 59-51 record thus far. +14.2 Units. 4-0 on Free Late night plays.

Tonight’s play takes us to the Mountain West and the Sports Gambling and Entertainment capital of the world, Las Vegas. San Jose St. is coming to town to take on the UNLV Rebels. San Jose St is a 4 point favorite with the number sitting at 44. San Jose St. enters the game at 3-4 with wins over Southern Utah, Hawaii and New Mexico St. Showing at 2-5 ATS so far this year. UNLV has yet to win a game and is 0-6, but has played 5 straight against very good competition and is 5-1 against the number.

Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard so far as they both are averaging just under 20 PPG. Starting QB Nick Starkel hasn’t played for San Jose State since 9/25 due to an arm injury and is currently not expected to play. That means backup Nick Nash is scheduled to start and he will carry a 56% completion percentage and 5TDs to 2 INTs into this game. They should be able to throw the ball a little, but they will need to improve the rushing attack to pull away in this game. They are averaging just 3.7 yards a carry and 107.9 YPG.

On Defense the Spartans rank 45th overall giving up 350 YPG and 23 PPG. The competition faced hasn’t been the cream of the crop. The best offenses they’ve played are USC at 29th and W. Michigan at 44th. They were very good against the run last week against SDSU, but gave up over 200 yards to Colorado St two weeks ago. With QB injury issues at UNLV stopping the run will be the key for SJSU tonight.

For UNLV the QB question marks are a glaring issue this evening. The man everything thinks of as the starter, Doug Brumfield, has missed the past two games with a back injury, and is day to day. That means on a short week in my mind he isn’t playing. Cam Friel, who has played well as a backup although not efficiently with a 61.6 Completion percentage 1/4 TD/INT injured his knee in 4th quarter last week and has been limited in practice. If he can’t go that leaves Justin Rogers who did not impress and took a sack in 1 of every 4 dropbacks last week or Miami transfer Tate Martell who has also been hurt and probably isn’t fully up to speed on the playbook. Whoever is under center will need the help of RB Charles Williams. If he can keep producing it should open up things for the passing game at least enough to be effective. He is averaging over 100 yards per game and 5.2 YPG. Against Utah St., he had 221 Yards and 3 TDs.

On defense the Rebels have shown some really great improvement over the first half of the year, especially in the trenches against the run. Where they still need work is against the pass as the are allowing a 73% completion percentage up to this point. The Rebels defense has been tested against 5 top 50 offenses thus far and while they have certainly given up their share of points the Spartans are not Iowa State on offense.

Here’s the key things I am looking at when betting this game. Charles Williams is the best offensive player on the field tonight. If he is able to find some room to run again, UNLV will be able to control the clock. Nick Nash has only gotten the Spartans into the end zone on 3 of 27 drives under center during his last two starts. With the total set at only 44 I don’t see anyone running away with game and expect it to stay close throughout. Playing in front of a big crowd at Alleigiant stadium should help the Rebels, as many people who are just visiting checked it out last week and I expect the same again tonight. It should be a Big Pro-Rebel crowd and there’s extra motivation from the new TD Slot Machine. The Rebels have played the much tougher competition so far, and are hungry for that first win.  I am going to Ride the Rebels. Playing UNLV +4 (2.5 Units) and Sprinkle

 

DFS Take: TNF Single Game Slate Den vs Cle

By
Steve Norman
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Along with Handicapping I also enjoy my fair share of DFS line ups in both NFL and NBA.  I personally use Fanduel, so adjust accordingly based on your format.

Here we have an extremely interesting DFS single slate line up for tonights TNF match up.  This is extremely rare in the sense that salary will be an absolute non-factor.  Key things I look for are value players with upside, low draft percentages, and not letting the salary dictate my plays.  Too often we feel like we need to have that perfect “$0” left when setting a line up.  That doesn’t always translate to the best possible outcome.  Set your line up so you are telling a story, how you think the game will go/flow.

Here is my story:

Tonight’s game will be an extremely windy low scoring affair.  Both teams will be utilizing their ground game, opening up potential for big downfield plays.  With the Broncos linebacking core in shambles I like for D’Ernest Johnson to get to the next level and the Browns leaning on him all night, making him my MVP and an arbitrary one at that.  Qb’s are both going to be in play for me tonight especially with the value in Case Keenum at 5K (everyone will roster him I am sure).  Looking for them both to be completing high percentage and quick passes, while getting yards scrambling on this windy night.  That leaves these high percentage receivers to be both Noah Fant and Jarvis Landry (who should be a go) added to my line up.  There is a lot of room for adjusting and tailoring this specific slate, but those are the players I will be eyeing for tonight.

 

 

October 21st CFB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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My premium winner on the Coastal Carolina/App State UNDER last night brought my CFB record to 51-38-1, +19.21u on the season. In addition, my premium record moved to 37-20-1, +25.57u. If you’re interested in becoming a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Arkansas State TT UNDER 26.5(-125) vs Louisiana–6:30 PM CT

I broke this game down with Kiev O’Neil on “The Oddsbreakers Podcast” which was released this morning. Check out this game breakdown from 11:48-15:49 using the podcast link below!

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-oddsbreakers/id1252520163?i=1000539266714

WEEK 7: TNF Den vs. Cle Free Pick

By
Steve Norman
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Here we have it my first article officially for TheOddsBreakers and Case Keenum’s first start for the 2021 NFL season.  This should make for for an exciting adventure for the both of us– here is my pick:

Current NFL Season Record: 60-30 (66%), +36 units

Cle -2 (-104) 1 unit : 

As we all know by now both of these teams have had their fair share of injuries with the ladder belonging to the Browns.  Key offensive weapons in Mayfield, Chubb, Hunt, and possibly Beckham are a no go for tonights contest.  In recent positive news for the Browns it looks like Landry will be a go for tonight.

So now we must ask after all of that, how are the Browns still favored?  My answer is I don’t fully believe the falloff is that severe going from Mayfield to Keenum in this particular spot.  Let’s not forget Stefanski was Keenum’s Qb coach during his time in Minnesota when they had their run to make it to the NFL Championship game.  There is a relationship there, Keenum knows this offense, and is not afraid to step in and execute effectively.

This season the Browns have heavily relied on the run and I think that trend will continue tonight.  Even with out the likes of Chubb and Hunt I still like the chances of them being successful with the combination of Johnson and Felton taking their place.  Key reasonings Bronco’s linebacking core is completely decimated. If the Browns can establish a solid run game with their offensive line allowing their running backs to get to the next level, I believe they will be able to control this game and allow for more play action potential for Keenum to get the Brown’s passing game going.

Last thought for me, this line just absolutely doesn’t make sense.  When have you seen a team lose their starting QB, RB(s), and possibly WR in the same week (a short one at that) and still be favored?  Everything inside of me wants to take the easy/possibly obvious way out and take the Broncos.  I simply just can’t bring myself too.  I really like the narrative that the Browns defense has been getting absolutely decimated the last two weeks and they have to be pissed off and ready to show up tonight.  Teddy Bridgewater is not a 100% and I could see Myles Garrett having an absolute MONSTER night.  Case Keenum is a competent back up in this league, he knows this offense, the stage is not too big.  Browns -2, 1 unit.  Good luck everyone.

 

NFL Week 7 Premiums & NBA Premiums – 10.21

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Another good day in NBA betting has us at 8-1, +14 units to start the season! Here are more for today and NFL picks for this weekend, more NFL TBD:

NBA 10.21:
  • Hawks -2.5 ** – Hawks fresh off a big year, complete team, healthy, at home, and the Mavs are overrated
  • Warriors 1Q -1 ** – Warriors should continue to play hot into this game after a great finish against the Lakers. The Clippers could surely keep this game close down the stretch, so I can’t take the full game on either side.
NFL Week 7:
  • Broncos/Browns under 42.5 (down to 41, given yesterday) **
  • Bengals +6.5 or 7 ***
  • Panthers -2.5 or -3 ** (watch for Toney and Saquon’s status. If they play, this is only a 1 unit bet)
  • WFT/Packers over 48.5 **
  • Jets +7.5 ***
  • D. Henry over 126.5 rushing yards **
  • Lions +15 ***
  • Eagles/Raiders over 49.5 **
  • Colts +4 **
  • Saints -5 ***
CFB Picks coming tomorrow! –Chris
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