ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 12: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers in the first inning of game two of the National League Championship Series against the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium on October 12, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Dodgers F5 UNDER 4(-125)–7:10 PM CT
The Cardinals totally reversed course in the month of September, winning 17 games in a row to squeeze their way into the postseason. As a reward for that valiant effort, they’ll now get to face one of the best pitchers in baseball and the defending World Series champion in a one game play-in. Unlike what we saw from Gerrit Cole last night, I believe Max Scherzer lives for big games like this. He won a WS with the Nationals just 2 seasons ago, and if his 0.86 WHIP over 179.1 IP this season is any tell, he’s set up well for a good start tonight. He faced St. Louis twice this season, allowing just 1 ER in 14 innings that included 22 K’s. I know this Cardinals offense found their groove over the final month of the season, but aside from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, it’s hard for me to trust any of their bats matching up with Scherzer. On the other side, Adam Wainwright has seemed to find a late-career renaissance; in his 40-year old season, the righty posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 32 starts this season. Typically, it’s best to back Wainwright when he’s pitching at home, but his road numbers this season were actually pretty respectable in 2021(3.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The Dodgers lineup was only slightly above average down the stretch of the season; while they can erupt at any moment, I believe Wainwright can do his part and keep the Cards in this game. This F5 total is bouncing around between 3.5 and 4; even with some juice, I believe the F5 Under is worth a play at 4. I expect a 2-1 or 2-0 Dodgers advantage after 5 innings.
LET THE GAMES BEGIN!! We have a good one to kick off the postseason! See my plus money leans and props for the game below. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units!! Join now atSPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The playoffs start tonight and the best rivalry in baseball will kick it off. The New York Yankees will start their ace righty Gerrit Cole. He owns a 1.62 HR/9, 1.38 WHIP and 3.83 FIP in September. In his last 3 starts, Cole has given up 5 homeruns and 15 earned runs over 17.2 innings. including 3 runs from Boston in his start on 9/24. He has posted a 1.50 WHIP, 4.53 FIP, 2 HR/9 in 22 innings pitched against Boston this season. The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Nate Eovaldi. He comes in posting a 0.84 HR/9 rate, 1.28 WHIP and 2.67 FIP in September. In his last 3 starts, Eovaldi has given up 1 homerun and 10 runs in 13.2 innings , with the majority coming from the Yankees in his start on 9/24. Versus the Yankees this season, he owns a 1.24 WHIP, 3.61 FIP and 1.3 HR/9 in 34 innings pitched. Boston has hit to a .325 wOBA (13th) and has scored 26 runs (21st) in the past week. In the past month vs righties at home, the Red Sox own a 2nd best .387 wOBA and wRC+ 138 and rank 10th in runs scored with 50 in 281 at bats. On the other side, the Yankees own a .278 wOBA (27th) and have scored 24 runs (23rd) during the past 7 days and have hit to a .323 wOBA (13th), scoring 41 runs (18th) in 286 at bats in the past month against righties on the road. Everyone is on the Yankees, but based on these stats I favor the value (Red Sox) early but limited to that as I don’t trust their bullpen. So I lean taking Boston F5 +105
Rafael Devers has a .428 wOBA and 3 HR in past week and 3 homeruns off of Gerrit Cole in 21 AB. Take Over 0.5 homeruns for Devers +322
Kiki Hernandez owns a .595 wOBA, .455 batting average, 0 strikeouts, 2 doubles and 1 homerun in 11 AB versus Gerrit Cole. Take Over 1.5 total bases for Hernandez +107
Anthony Rizzo has a .620 wOBA, .556 BA, 1 strikeout, 2 doubles on 5 hits in 9 AB vs Nate Eovaldi. Take Over 1.5 total bases for Rizzo +108
We have a great show for you today! Kiev is on vacation and goes solo to bring you our betting information and fantasy football for this week! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 5 and NFL week 4 with some massive upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 6 and NFL Week 5. Next, Kiev gives out a nice College Football FREE PLAY for week 6! Then, Kiev gets into Fantasy Football week 5 info. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev give out his nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Some people don’t care what the sports betting market does, and some people do. If you don’t want to be influenced by the market, this article is not for you. For those who like the information gained from the market, I gathered some of what I think is interesting. In this article, I created a rudimentary chart of what info is available about the very efficient NFL market to answer some personal questions (numbers courteous of Football:All (wagertalk.com)).
My main question is… With all these states legalizing sports betting, are these numbers about the number of tickets and percentage of money being diluted? I hear of successful bettors getting limited (bucket list item of mine) and the consolidation of books happening very quickly. It makes me wonder about the symbiotic relationship between the “sharps” who are able to bet because the books value their information to adjust their lines. Long story short, the money is still sharp. Here’s a chart I created for the Week 4 spread information… We can see where the most popular side was compared to the amount of money as percentages. Hopefully one can understand my gibberish.
Spread High. Tix%
Team
Tickets%
Spread Result
Money%
$ Diff. Correct
Line Move Margin
Move Correct?
1
KC
79%
COVER
76%
N
-0.5
Y
2
TB
77%
loss
54%
Y
-1
N
3
SEA
77%
COVER
77%
Y
1
Y
4
GB
66%
COVER
51%
N
0.5
N
5
DET
65%
loss
57%
Y
3
N
6
CIN
64%
loss
54%
Y
-1
N
7
LAR
62%
loss
51%
Y
2.5
Y
8
DAL
61%
COVER
54%
N
0.5
N
9
TEN
61%
loss
68%
N
0.5
Y
10
MIA
60%
loss
54%
Y
0
P
11
LAC
59%
COVER
59%
N
0
P
12
BAL
58%
COVER
59%
Y
2
N
13
WAS
57%
COVER
59%
Y
-1
Y
14
NYG
54%
COVER
61%
Y
0.5
N
15
HOU
54%
loss
53%
Y
-2
Y
16
CLE
52%
COVER
61%
Y
1
N
LINE MOVE=TEAM COVER
$ Correct?
11W 5L
6W 8L
I also added in, for curiosity purposes… When you see a spread move towards in a team’s favor or against that team, generally, is that indicative of that team covering the spread? While it’s more complicated than it seems, from a one week sample? Not really.
For example, GB went from a -6.5 to a -6 favorite. In that case, the money came in on PIT. So the line moved towards PIT, but GB covered easily. So you can’t really predict an outcome based on a line move. And the money % difference was wrong on that game.
The chart shows us that where the lines had moved, that went 6-8 on the week, 2 lines did not move. But, what we also see in the chart, is that where the % of money differed from the % of tickets, that went 11-5. Meaning, the money leaned towards the correct result of the game. What’s the difference? My opinion, sometimes the public can move a line. Sometimes, one respected bettor could move a line, one book moves and the rest follow. That’s hard to predict. Interesting?
Now I’ve heard, and I could be wrong, that there’s 3 types of bettors. Numbers guys (meaning modelers essentially), steam chasers, and just fans of the game. What this info tells us is that steam chasing moving lines is the wrong way to go. Steam chasing the money, well, this week it looks like something worth following.
To be honest, I don’t necessarily follow the money myself every game I want to play. However, when I see all of the tickets, all of the money, or a huge disparity between tickets and money- it has swung me on some big plays. Thus, I think following the money is worth looking at.
Here I spent some time looking at the totals market, creating a similar chart…
Total High. Tix%
Teams
Tickets%
Total Result
Money%
$ Diff. Correct?
Total Move
Move Correct Direction
1
ARI/ LAR
o82%
OVER
o84%
Y
1
Y
2
SEA/ SF
o75%
under
o56%
Y
2.5
N
3
JAX/ CIN
o73%
under
o58%
Y
0
P
4
LAC/ LVR
o69%
under
o60%
Y
-1
Y
5
IND/ MIA
u68%
OVER
u87%
N
-3.5
N
6
TEN/ NYJ
u66%
OVER
u59%
Y
-4
Y
7
WAS/ ATL
u64%
OVER
u54%
Y
-2
N
8
KC/ PHI
o64%
OVER
o53%
N
-0.5
N
9
CLE/ MIN
o64%
under
o61%
Y
1.5
N
10
TB/ NE
u62%
under
u55%
N
-1.5
Y
11
PIT/ GB
o61%
under
o79%
N
-3
Y
12
HOU/ BUF
u60%
under
u84%
Y
-0.5
Y
13
CAR/ DAL
u57%
OVER
u56%
Y
1.5
Y
14
DET/ CHI
u54%
under
o50%
N
-4
Y
15
BAL/ DEN
o52%
under
o57%
N
0
P
16
NYG/ NOR
u52%
OVER
o69%
Y
-4.5
N
LINE MOVE=Correct Direction
$ Correct?
10W 6L
8W 6L
With the totals, it looks like the moves were indeed the right direction for the most part- 8-6, with 2 totals that did not move. The difference between the money and the tickets show that where the money leaned, that went 10-6 on the week. I think that the totals markets are the sharper between the two I have charted. But again, we see where the money difference was. And we see it was, dare I say- more better, ha… So, something worth looking at before making that bet? Maybe… Numbers don’t lie. I know that there’s a lot of guys way better at this than I am. I just know I need to be better about looking at these numbers myself.
In my experience, sometimes looking at the money has put me on a game or taken me off a game. Mostly games I leaned one way or the other, but maybe not confident in my numbers I’m looking at, or what I’m hearing or seeing from outside sources. I want to be better about it on games I might be 50/50, 60/40, maybe even 70/30 about. We’ll take a look later in the season and see how it’s working out in my next NFL Market Recap! I’ll shorten the article next time, promise. Haven’t figured out a way to get my charts to look better on the phone than it does on the computer, sorry about that- working on it.
We’ve finally reached the end of the regular MLB season. It was a long six months, but now we have reached October. Regular Season record was 362-315-23, 53.4% Win Rate and 9.2% ROI. Post-season baseball is typically great drama, and offers some good opportunities to cash some tickets.
If you’ve been following my picks you know that I already own some futures shares. I am most heavily invested in the Brewers followed by the White Sox (And the Mets…oops). Looking at current Post-season odds there is some value on the board to take some shots and try to hedge later if the right chance presents itself.
Here are Current Odds:
To Win AL:
Astros +200, Rays +250, White Sox +300, Yankees +450, Red Sox + 700
Lets be honest here, There is value on almost everyone except the Dodgers. High liability on them has their odds as the lowest even though they have to beat the red hot Cardinals in the wild card game. (I’ll be on The Cardinals at +175ish and the over 7.5 in that game) The Dodgers are gonna march out probably the best three pitcher playoff rotation in Scherzer/Buehler/Urias. That is a scary proposition for anyone in a full series, but in one game against Adam Wainwright, (Last 15 games 10-2 2.50 ERA 0.95 WHIP) I think its a toss up on the game and the value is on fading the futures bets for both teams. The cards are not built for the playoffs on offense or defense, but just destroyed everyone in September so you never know.
The winner would face the team with MLBs best record in the never flinch San Francisco Giants. This team wasn’t supposed to sniff the playoffs, but a bunch of overachieving veteran pieces came together and decided they wanted to compete. How this team just kept on winning I just don’t know. Wait yes I do, they had the 4th best OPS and 2nd best ERA in all of baseball. (Bullpen has a 2.99 ERA – Thats crazy!) Gausman, Webb, Desclafini and Wood will be underdogs every game if they play the Dodgers. They are a tough bet for me due to the potential Dodgers matchup, but they made it happen all year so I could see it in the post-season as well.
The other Wild Card features two titans of the sport in the Yankees and Red Sox. Gerritt Cole will get the ball for the Red Sox, but he has struggled some down the stretch with a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his last 7 starts. Nathan Eovaldi is Jekyll and Hyde. 3.86 ERA in his last 7 starts and a 1.26 WHIP. He was hammered last time out against the Yankees last Friday for 7 runs. Both these teams are capable of big offensive showings, but both lost season series to the team waiting for them the Rays. Neither staff is great, and while I could see either making it a series, I don’t like them going up against the Rays.
Those Rays are a little scary in that their playoff rotation is going to consist of three guys you never heard of before this year. Shane McLanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. They have been very good though. The way the Rays do things I could see Game 4 featuring an opener or being a straight up bullpen game for them. The offense was 10th in MLB in OPS, so good, but not great. They’ve proven themselves two years in a row now even with an overhaul of the rotation. I think there could be some value here.
The NL 2-3 match-up features the Brewers vs the Braves. The Brewers boast the other big 3 rotation with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. Josh Hader is almost lights out if they get a lead to the 9th, but the loss of Williams as their 8th inning man is huge. When he struggled early in the season so did the Brewers. Getting a lead to the 9th will be key for the Crew. The Brewers are only 20th in OPS, so getting some runs on the board to support those starters will also be key. The Braves are fairly consistent across the board. 8th in ERA. 8th in OPS. The Braves will have Morton, Fried and Anderson to start off the series. All three are good enough to keep them in the game, and the bullpen is solid if not flashy. I like the Brewers in a tight series here.
In the final AL match-up The AL favored Houston Astros take on the White Sox. Greinke is a shadow of his old self, and while some of the young guys have been solid like McCullers, Valdez and Garcia, I don’t see them hanging with the other big rotations. Plus their bullpen outside of Gravemen and Pressly hasnt been great, and I dont trust either of those guys that much. Astros are 2nd in OPS so it would be the bats that get them somewhere in the playoffs. The White Sox bring more excitement on the mound with Lynn, Giolito, Rodon and Cease. Their offense was 7th in OPS, but didnt get fully healthy until they got Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez back near the end of the season. It’s a scary top to bottom lineup. Their bullpen with Kimbrel and Hendriks closing is also solid. The Manager on the South Side knows a little something about winning in October also. White Sox will be my play in this series.
So what do I like? Well I already have shares of the Brewers and White Sox, and honestly I like the matchup for both teams in the first series so either of those would be plays for me for the League at +300. I also like the Rays at +250 in the AL. Same for the World Series grab the Rays at +600 and the Brewers and White Sox at +700. I could see sprinkling in a small amount on a Wild Card longshot if you’re feeling it here also. I am going to split up 2 units on the League bets and 3 units on the World Series bets.
Make sure for bets like these you use some sort of Dutching Tool so you can see what your return will be and invest the correct amount on each team to make these bets the most profitable when one comes in.
I can’t wait! Bring on some post-season baseball!
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