Over the weekend, I enjoyed a +7.2u Week 5 in College Football and saw my premium record improve to 26-13-1, +20.38u. I’m 2-2 in the Week 4 NFL Card looking to win tonight’s bet and seal up another winning week. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Chargers -3(-110) vs Raiders–7:15 PM CT
The Raiders have gotten off to a hot 3-0 start, but let’s examine a little deeper. They looked great in a Week 1 win against the Ravens, but their last two wins over the Steelers and Dolphins are starting to look a bit less intriguing. Pittsburgh has exposed themselves as totally inept offensively and has lost 3 straight, and the Dolphins were starting Jacoby Brissett at QB. Point being, this is a step up in class for a Las Vegas team that wasn’t expected to be in the position they’re in. Los Angeles is coming off a great win in Kansas City that saw Justin Herbert toss 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s; the Chargers defense held Patrick Mahomes to a 61% completion rate(well below average for him) and forced 4 Chiefs turnovers. The week before, LAC held a potent Dallas offense to just 20 points. I understand the line being where it’s at considering how good Vegas has looked through 3 weeks, but I’m willing to bet we see some regression from the Raiders tonight. I’ll back Justin Herbert and the Chargers at home tonight.
The Chiefs have started this 2021 season sluggish, losing each of their last 2 games. Last week, they lost at home to the Chargers due to 4 turnovers; Patrick Mahomes looked visibly frustrated during the loss. This team has too much about them to come out flat again this week; lucky for them, they get a perfect “get right” opponent. Philadelphia looked totally wretched in their blowout loss to the Cowboys on Monday night, and now they have to turn around on a short week and host what’s still the best team in the NFL. I’m not that high on Jalen Hurts, and that’s especially true when he’s going to be forced to take some risks if his Eagles want to keep up with the KC offense. The Eagles are still overvalued in the betting markets due to their Week 1 win over Atlanta; they’ve shown exactly who they are over their last 2 games. I could go much deeper on this game, but all of my further explanation will basically fall under the notion that the Chiefs have every reason to come out and dominate this football game. I don’t expect this one to be close.
*NFL(1.5u): Panthers TT UNDER 23.5(-115) @ Cowboys–Noon CT
The Panthers have started the season 3-0, but considering two of those wins came against the Jets and Texans, they are still far from a top-tier team in this league. They had extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday night game, but I think whatever advantage that may have presented them gets wiped out considering they’ll be without star RB Christian McCaffrey. Now, Carolina will almost solely rely on the performance of QB Sam Darnold. I’ve actually backed the Panthers twice this year, but without a truly dynamic back to help Darnold out, the offense totally changes. Dallas’s defense isn’t very good, but they are shielded by what is one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Cowboys are coming off a short week, and frankly, I don’t expect them to come out full throttle offensively; rather, I expect a slower-paced Cowboys attack. This would limit the Panthers’ possessions and force Darnold to execute at a high level on the road. Because he’s yet to prove he’s capable of doing so throughout his career, I feel comfortable taking the Panthers TT UNDER at a relatively high number.
*NFL(1u): Colts TT UNDER 20.5(-115) @ Dolphins–Noon CT
Colts HC Frank Reich is a very crafty play-caller who I’ve been able to trust in years past, but this current Colts offense has proven to be incapable so far. Through 3 games, they’ve averaged less than 19 PPG, which includes a mere 16 point output against a vulnerable Tennessee defense last week. Miami has looked rattled in their past 2 games; they were completely manhandled by the Bills in Week 2 and let last week’s game in Las Vegas slip away. Brian Flores has had success in Miami by slowing the game down and relying on his defense. QB Jacoby Brissett looked a lot better in Week 3 than he did coming in relief for Tua in Week 2, so I’d expect the Dolphins offense to be pretty efficient back at home this week. This would limit the Colts’ possessions, and with the mistake-prone Carson Wentz leading the offense, I don’t think Indy will find their answers on offense this week. Maybe the Colts find an offensive identity at some point this season, but this matchup doesn’t set up well for them to do so.
*NFL 2 Team Teaser(1u): Cardinals/Rams OVER 48.5 AND Buccaneers -1 @ Patriots(-110)–3:05 PM CT
I wouldn’t talk you out of playing the Cards/Rams OVER at the posted number, but by teasing it down 6 points, we’re getting much better value(obviously). The Rams have looked about as sharp as any offense in the league through 3 weeks, and I don’t expect the Cardinals defense to provide much resistance. The Arizona D has shown to be spotty in the past, and Sean McVay has tons of weapons at his disposal. That said, Kyler Murray is as dynamic a QB as you’ll find, and the Rams defense hasn’t been tasked with facing a dual-threat QB yet this season. Not only is Kyler Murray great with his legs, but he is an exceptional passer. I expect these teams to trade points at a high rate for 60 minutes and for this game to sail into the 52-55 range(at least). As for the Bucs portion of this teaser, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game to a clearly inferior Patriots team. Bill Belichick knows Tom Brady as well as anybody, but he’s still in the “growing pains” stage with rookie QB Mac Jones. Even if the Patriots defense brings their A effort, I don’t see the Pats offense being able to move the ball very well, especially considering the Bucs’ success at stopping the run. This could be closer than the -7 line indicates, but Brady will get the best of his former team tonight in Foxborough.
Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase for another 3 days until October 2nd! 35-23 in College Football up 27 Units and 23-18 in the NFL up 8U!
Carolina vs Dallas -4.5 O/U 50
I must say that the Dallas Cowboys have definitely improved on both sides of the ball. You have to wonder where this Dan Quinn defense was during his tenure at the Falcons. The Cowboys have had a pretty hard schedule so far and they are 3-0 ATS but they have also been beneficiaries in the turnover game being a huge +5 in turnover ratio and I am not sure that is sustainable in a Mike McCarthy coached team. I also have to point out the fact that their Chargers victory seemed very one sided to me and I don’t know if they deserved that win. Dallas’s defense is still very suspect in yards per play allowing a 3rd worst at allowing 6.7 yards per play. Carolina’s defense has been fantastic. The Panthers are number 1 in pressure rate as well as Pass and Rush EPA. Now Carolina has had a few offensive struggles, but Sam Darnold looks a lot more comfortable under Matt Rhule’s system ranking 6th in QBR which has helped the Panthers achieve a huge +10.2 points in ATS margin further showing that the market hasn’t caught up with them as of yet. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the rest factor. Dallas is facing the Panthers on a short week while the Panthers have 10 days to prepare for this team. I know that they will be missing Christian McCaffrey but Chuba Hubbard and Royce Freeman should fit right in here. I am going to take the Panthers to cover the spread and possibly win outright n Dallas.
Carolina +4.5 – 2 stars and season that money-line
Arizona vs LA Rams -4.5 O/U 55
Now this should be a great game at So-Fi Stadium with 2 undefeated teams squaring off. Both teams are 2-1 ATS. Now the Rams took the Cardinals out of the playoffs last year and I am sure that it is baked into their minds that this is the hurdle that they must overcome in order to take a big step forward. The Cardinals have been solid on both sides of the ball ranking 4th in overall DVOA. Their biggest weakness is against the run but the Rams are a weak 30th in rushing yards per attempt at 3.3 which softens the blow of that matchup. The Rams rank 3rd in overall DVOA and they seem to move the ball quite well with all of those offensive weapons but this is a let down spot for them being that they just beat the Super Bowl champs and I could see them struggle a bit to contain that AZ pass rush with JJ Watt and Chandler Jones coming after Matt the Statue Stafford. My power ratings have the spread at around 4.25 if you don’t factor in the let down, but I think that the Cardinals get it done if they can stop the run this week like they did vs the Titans and if Kyler Murray can break contain and get some big chunks of yards. My Algorithm has the Rams winning 28.5 to 26 which covers a three point spread, and much of that is because Arizona has allowed less yards on defense.
Cardinals +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Refuse to lose teasers are 2-1 so far this season: 6pt. Tease the Saints down to -2 with the Buccaneers down to -1 – 2 stars
74% of the money on NYG +7 in this one. I have to disagree even though I understand New Orleans has not only their Center, but their backup Center out as well. LT Armstead out is a big loss but I still have the NOR getting just one point more than what I have this game. I think they can cover. I realize OL losses can be devastating to an offense but in the Saints home opener, I can’t see the Giants coming in and pulling this one off. Fading a team coming home off a road trip is one thing, but riding NYG with 2/3 of their starting WR corps out, and their MLB Martinez (QB of the defense), oof.
This line seems trappy, recency bias with the Saints exerting their dominance last week against NE… Clearly this Saints Defense is something to contend with. Giants have OG cluster injuries on top of an already struggling O-line. I liked the Giants coming in to the season, but with their injury woes… I have to take a flier on NOR-7 in this one… Simply put, I can’t see Giants putting up more than the Saints in this one and New Orleans boasts one of the best home fields in the NFL. Coaching matchup favoring Payton… Give me the Saints-7!
Sunday card has the NFL Non Conf. Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the AFC Game of the Month, Sunday night Football and MLB Last Home game Undefeated System play. NFL Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play is on the NY. Jets + 6 at 1:00 eastern. You my have to pinch your nose here. However, the Jets fit a nice subset to a system that play on dogs of 5 or more in non Division games that are off back to back straight up and spread losses if they were shut out in their last game. The Titans could come flat here as they have failed to cover 20 of 26 on the road vs a team under .500 and a lousy 1-4 ats as a road favorite also failing to cover 10 of 13 vs the AFC East. The Jets have covered 8 of 10 in the series. Take the Points as the Jets get the cover. On Sunday an Executive level NFL TIER 1 Total, headlines along With the 100% Non Conf. Game of the Year and the 40-8 AFC Game of the Month. There is also Sunday night Football and our Exclusive Last home game play of the year in MLB from a perfect Game 162 specific System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as the NFL Stays hot. For the Comp play. Take the 6 points wit the Jets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Nov 3, 2018; Columbus, OH, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Ben Stille (95) celebrates after a fourth down stop against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
ULL Ragin’ Cajuns at SALA Jaguars Total 53
ULL dealing with RB, WR, and cluster OL injuries. Total pushed up to 53 from open at 51. SALA defense better than hoped so far (18th Scoring DEF), ULL allowing 5.9 YPP but coming into conference play I expect them to tighten up. Jaguars 163rd OFF YPG.
ULL/ SALA U53 (-112) 2.24u
NW Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1H -6) Total 51
Total moved up from 49 open to 51, 52 at sharp Pinnacle book. I don’t agree with this one being a horse race with NW struggling offense (127th YPG). Yes they scored 21 against Michigan ST earlier this season but that was in garbage time. NEB 25th scoring DEF, underrated in my mind. Nebraska can score coming in 33rd OFF YPG, but defense is still NW strength coming in 46th scoring DEF. In the two games NW has faced I have power rated in the top 100, their 1H margin AVG -18.5. I’ll hedge the total with NEB 1H -6 in case Nebraska Offense takes off, but again I think both can hit.
NEB 1H -6 (-120) 1.2u/ NEB UN 51 (-105) 1.05u
Fresno ST Bulldogs (1H -6) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Recency bias but we’ve seen Fresno come out strong against Oregon and UCLA. In Hawaii they could be sleepwalking going into their BYE week versus an inferior foe but we know this Offense can score. I don’t see Fresno Coach Kalen DeBoer letting this squad come out flat in paradise and clearly wants to be in the conversation of being one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country. Hawaii’s QB struggles with accuracy and Fresno’s defense should take advantage in case their knicked up QB doesn’t come out strong.
Fresno 1H -6 (-120) 1.2u
Follow more of my plays at Action Network App (kris_lundborg). I wanted to give theoddsbreakers.com members 30 free plays, which aren’t always my top tier plays but so far 15-12. Includes my worst MLB season in years… Check back soon as I am setting up a new Patreon for my very best plays released much earlier in the week!
Wagers: $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double 0.10 Superfecta / $ 1 Super Hi 5 Leg 1 of the $1 Golden Hour Late Pick 4
Field:
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
ML Odds
1
TIZAMAGICIAN
F. Prat
R. Mandella
4-1
2
MIDCOURT
E. Maldonado
J. Shirreffs
12-1
3
EXPRESS TRAIN
J. Hernandez
J. Shirreffs
4-1
4
STILLETO BOY
K. Desormeaux
E. Moger Jr.
20-1
5
MEDINA SPIRIT
J. Velazquez
B. Baffert
5-2
6
AZUL COAST
A. Cedillo
B. Baffert
12-1
7
TRIPOLI
J. Pereira
J. Sadler
3-1
8
IDOL
J. Bravo
R. Baltas
5-1
Horse Preview:
TIZAMAGICIAN is 19-5-8-0 in his career and 7-3-3-0 in 2021. This 4-year-old colt has been impressive in 2021 finishing in the money in six of his seven starts. He’s coming into this race off a 2nd place finish in the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes where he lost to fellow entrant TRIPOLI. This race was run at the same distance and on the same surface. An interesting note is that TRIPOLI who beat TIZAMAGICIAN is listed as a 4-1 on the morning line odds while TRIPOLI is listed at 5-1. He’s won 2 G3 Stakes this year and was a runner up in G2 Stakes. In his last out at Santa Anita he ran in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap finishing 5th, his worst finish of this year. In that race, finished behind fellow entrants IDOL (1st place) and EXPRESS TRAIN (2nd place).
MIDCOURT is a gelding who’s 17-6-3-4 in his career and 1-1-0-0 in 2021. This 6-year-old has only raced once this year and that came back in June at Santa Anita where he won an Allowance Race running a 112-speed figure. He raced in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes last year and finished 3rd. MIDCOURT has certainly had an impressive career with over $600,000 in career earnings. My only concern in this race is his limited starts this year along with his age.
EXPRESS TRAIN is 13-4-4-2 in his career and 6-2-1-2 in 2021. Thus 4-year-old colt also was an entrant in the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes his last out where he ran 6th. However, that race was the only race that he’s finished outside the money this year. In his other races this year, he won the G2 San Diego Handicap and G2 San Pasqual Stakes. He also had respectable showing in the two G1 Stakes he entered, finishing 3rd in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes and 2nd in the Santa Anita Handicap. This horse is very familiar with Santa Anita and has raced well at this track in the past.
STILLETO BOY is 9-2-2-3 in his career and 8-2-1-3 in 2021. This 3-year-old colt hasn’t had much success in his previous stakes races he’s entered, besides winning the Iowa Derby, so I don’t understand this move at all. In the only Graded Stakes he’s entered, he finished 5th in the G3 La Jolla Handicap. Given the class of horses here, I don’t see him being a factor at all. For me, this horse is a complete toss in this race.
MEDINA SPIRIT is 8-4-3-1 in his career and 7-3-3-1 in 2021. This 3-year-old colt has been at the center of the racing world since winning the Kentucky Derby and testing positive for a banned substance. In his last out, he won the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. He was coming off a three-month layoff going into that race after finishing third in the Preakness. He’s the deserved favorite in this race but should face some tough competition.
AZUL COAST is 8-3-1-1 in his career and 2-1-0-1 in 2021. This be the second G1 Stakes that he has entered in. His first coming last year in the G1 RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby, where he finished 7th. In his most recent start, he won an AOC at Del Mar where he ran a 115-speed figure. This is an interesting horse because he has looked better in his last two outs but I’m still not sure that he’ll be competitive here.
TRIPOLI is 14-4-3-3 in his career and 6-3-1-1 in 2021. This 4-year-old colt beat out TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN in his last start to win the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes. Prior to that race, he finished second in the G2 San Diego Handicap where he lost to EXPRESS TRAIN. This horse will definitely be a factor in this race and will be given an opportunity to prove himself against MEDINA SPIRIT.
IDOL is 6-3-2-1 in his career and 2-1-0-1 in 2021. The big story for this horse is that he’s coming off a seven-month layoff, running his last race back in March. In his last race, he won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap defeating TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN. His only other start this year was in the G2 San Pasqual Stakes where TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN beat him out for 1st and 2nd.
Picks:
WIN: (7) TRIPOLI
TRIFECTA BOX: 5,7/ 1,3,5,7
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 Move, the BIG 12 Game Of The Year, a 5* High noon Total, a Late Platinum Supreme and 2 more Top plays. There is also Last weekend Specific MLB power System Plays and Soccer– College Preview Below.
The College Football preview at 2:30 eastern. Expect a lower scoring game here as Cincy has a tremendous defense and the Irish have allowed under 14 in back to back games. Cincy will look to end the long Notre Dame win streak and are just the team to do it after going 9-1 last year and opening up 3-0 this year. They are 8 of 11 under vs a winning team and 7 of 10 off a spread win. Notre Dame at 4-0 will be tough and they are 5 of 5 under as a home dog and 4 of 5 vs a winning team as well as 26 of 36 after scoring 40 or more. In what looks like one of the best games of the day we will back the under and give a light lean to the win for Cincy who has been powerful in the second halves this year. On Saturday we have a Huge CFB Card up with the BIG 12 Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, 5* High noon Total, 5* 100% Blowout and a big Non Conference Play. There is October specific MLB systems and Soccer. Dont miss out. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the College Comp plays. Look for Notre Dame and Cincy to go under in a close game with Cincy getting the win. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
*EPL: Leeds to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (+105) vs Watford
Leeds are a MUCH better team than the 0-3-3 record suggests. They have actually struggled to score goals this season which is very unlike Leeds who tactically never stop doing everything in their power to score, no matter what the scoreline is. This tactic makes them very vulnerable defensively but Watford are just as vulnerable, not having kept a Premier League clean sheet yet this season. Leeds are coming off of an underserved 2-1 loss to a very strong West Ham side, and welcoming Watford to Ellen road is a game that they are easily favourites for. Ellen road is also a very tough place to play for any visiting squad. Leeds fans are yet to see a home win this season, so the atmosphere will be outstanding and difficult for an away side to manage. I have no doubt that their will be over 1.5 goals in this match, and I honestly expect Leeds to score at least three and hand Premier League newcomers, Watford a big defeat.
*EPL: Manchester United to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-130) vs Everton
I hit on a Manchester United pick this week, and my reasoning for this pick will be along the same lines as the one midweek. With Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City in such good form, United need to win this game with the horrifying stretch of games they have coming up. Their last Premier League game was a disappointing loss to Aston Villa, but that was a Villa team in a different spot then Everton are in right now. All but one of Manchester United’s wins this season have been over 1.5 goals, and ALL of Everton’s games this season have gone over 1.5 goals. Everton are a good team with a good squad, but one thing they lack is significant depth. Their attack heavily relies on Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, two players who will miss the contest due to injury. The attacking threat for Everton won’t be as convincing without these two players, and it will be tremendously difficult to prevent United’s overwhelming attack from scoring goals in this one. Expect United to win this one and pile some goals in against Everton.
Sunday October 3rd Picks
*EPL: Leicester City to Win (+130) @ Crystal Palace
Despite only having six points from six games, Crystal Palace have actually impressed in the past couple games with a BIG 3-0 win vs Spurs and deserved draws against very in-from sides in Brighton and West Ham. For this reason, I think the line is deservedly giving Crystal Palace a bit too much respect here. As I said, they only have six points in six games this season, and Leicester are in desperate need of a win for a team that has top four aspirations. Leicester have the more established and experienced squad, and they will feel that this is a huge opportunity to snatch three points and get their season started. The Foxes (Leicester) have scored in all Premier League games but one, which was a 1-0 loss against Manchester City. While Palace have only kept two clean sheets and scored six goals this season. So yes, Crystal Palace have looked good recently, but they also look vulnerable and Leicester is too good of a team to give Palace this much respect. Take this pick.
*EPL: Manchester City Double Chance & Under 4.5 Goals (-138) @ Liverpool
The game of the weekend comes on Sunday as City visit Anfield in a match that any football fan cannot miss. I want to start by explaining the reasoning of the under 4.5 goals as we all know both teams are incredible on the attacking end. But, Manchester City have only conceded ONE goal this season and are finally starting to look like that real force we’ve grown to see in recent years. Liverpool have only conceded four goals and remain the only unbeaten team left in the Premier League. I know it’s a small sample size but Liverpool have only played one of the traditional “top six” sides this season, which ended in a 1-1 draw against Chelsea. While Manchester City have played both Chelsea and Tottenham in games that ended both 1-0. The point is, when playing difficult opposition, these two managers are so tactically talented that the games almost always end in low scoring affair.
Now, for the why I picked Man City to win or draw. Well, last time at Anfield, City actually beat Liverpool 4-1. Liverpool have actually only won, one in the last six Premier League meetings between these two sides (all but one ending in under 4.5 goals). This Manchester City team are just too good tactically to break down. Pep has them with the ball for majority of the game and when they do lose it, the constant pressure to win it back is too tough to beat. Liverpool are a great counter-attacking team and in theory could benefit from trying to hit City on the counter… but it won’t be enough. I could easily see a 1-1 draw, and I definitely expect City to take at least a point from this one.
