NFL Week 4 Best Bets

By

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October 1, 2021

Russel Wilson pictured throwing the football.

I can’t emphasize this enough- Vegas NEEDS to win this weekend after losing BIG TIME in Week 3. Don’t get caught betting a side that everyone is throwing money on, yet the number isn’t moving – that usually means the books know something and the opposite side hits more often than not. Pay attention to line moves and where the bets are– it matters.

I’m sure you’ve heard by now, but in case you haven’t… we went up 26 units in Week 3, going 8-7 for +6 units in single NFL picks and 7-0 for +20 units in teasers– let’s goooo!!! Here are my favorite free plays for Week 4!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units

Jets +7 (-115), 1.5 units: Whoa whoa whoa, I’m taking the JETS on Sunday? Correct! Next to my NY Giants that’s probably one of the harder bets to make in all of professional sports, but here we are. Before you think I’m crazy (and I may be), let me explain. The Jets are coming off a hugely embarrassing loss in Denver, where they just could not move the ball against an elite Broncos defense at altitude. Fine, they’re not the first team to get stifled in the Mile-High City. Zach Wilson has also struggled, a lot. After showing some real signs of stardom in Week 1 in a tight contest against Carolina, the rookie QB has fell off a cliff. Wilson already has 7 INTs and he’s barely eclipsed 600 yards in 3 games. While that’s not exactly the kind of production you’d want from a top draft pick, this is the NFL and a learning curve should be expected. One thing’s for sure, the Jets won’t face the level of defense they did last week. The Titans are a good team, but we don’t think they’re great. Behind the able legs of Derrick Henry and disciplined coaching from Mike Vrabel, the Titans are a smash-mouth, wear-you-down team that should easily run away with the AFC South this year (particularly thanks to the Colts’ failures). In their first two games against exceptional QBs, Tennessee’s defense allowed 68 points and 813 yards. Again, that was only in TWO games. Thanks to a comeback victory against Seattle in Week 2 (and 500+ yards of their own), the Titans avoided an agonizing 0-2 start and proceeded to whack their AFC South rival in Week 3. Now, likely feeling high and confident once again, Tennessee travels to East Rutherford and looks to get an easy win. Not so fast, my friends.

The Jets have a lot to improve on but, in my opinion, they still have a coach that’s going to work. Robert Saleh has a way of effecting his players that’s rare, at least according to the stories of San Francisco defenders in years past. Saleh is a motivational tough guy that looks like he could get out there and play defensive lineman right now. The Jets have been on the road for 2/3 games of this early season and in their only home game, they faced a Patriots squad looking to avoid an 0-2 start. The Titans defense is ranked in the bottom five in both yards allowed per play and the Jets, on the other hand, are surprisingly top 10 in a few important defensive categories, including yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. I think Coach Saleh will get his team UP for this game, and while the Titans should win, they should give Zach Wilson more room and more lanes to make completions and gain some needed confidence. Believe it or not, the lowly Jets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I’m on New York!

Seahawks +3 (-125), 2.50 units: Something’s going on in Seattle and it’s hard to pinpoint. Their defense looks like it needs a ton of work, we’re used to that by now, and they absolutely cannot score points in the second half of games. In Week 1, they only scored a single touchdown in the final 30 minutes. In Week 2, including OT, they scored a total of 6 points in the second half. And in Week 3, they didn’t score at all. Even more confusing is the play of Russel Wilson, which is not on par with Seattle’s productivity. As usual, Russel is starting the year out strong. With a QB rating of 133.6, Wilson has a 73.3% completion rate and has thrown for 895 yards, 7 TDs, and no INTs in 3 games. But Russ needs help. Bad offensive line play and a lukewarm rushing attack aren’t helping. I can see Pete Carrol and the Seattle coaches drawing up some creativity in their playbook this week to throw off the home team Niners. They need a jolt of some kind.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have come into 2021 with a ton of confidence. Plagued by injuries in 2020, a rejuvenated Niners team has big hopes this year and they came out on fire. Against the Lions in the season opener, it felt like they were “playing with their food,” clobbering Detroit early only to let them come back and hang in the game (and cover their line at +8.5). A Week 2 win over a solid Eagles team, at Philly, wasn’t a bad look either. Last Sunday night Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got the best out of San Francisco, holding off a second half comeback by Jimmy G and company. Garoppolo is playing with plenty of confidence himself, distancing himself from rookie Trey Lance, who many believe can be a franchise QB and exceptional talent when his time comes. All that said, it’s hard to get a firm handle on the Niners. Their defense has been okay; they’ve allowed nearly 400 yards per game against mostly mediocre offenses so far. And their offense, although always innovative and full of talent, doesn’t ever seem to take over games. The Niners will welcome the Seahawks into Levi Stadium Sunday and while they should be favored, injuries at RB still plague their offense and now George Kittle, arguably their most important offensive weapon, may not play.

The Seahawks need to win. They’re 1-2 in the NFC West, a division where you don’t want to fall too far behind. The Rams and Cardinals are both 3-0 and the Niners would go 3-1 if they win Sunday, separating themselves from Seattle even further. Divisional games always have a different feel, and if you’re giving me 3 points with Russel Wilson in a game that feels like a “must win,” I’m going to take it. There’s a reason this line is so juiced– the books think the Hawks will keep it close, too. Take Seattle and don’t think twice about it.

Week 5 CFB Pick: Washington at Oregon St

By

Alan Cashman

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October 1, 2021

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Wk 5 CFB PICK
Washington at Oregon St 9 pm
PICK: Oregon St (-118) 1.5 units

QB advantage for Oregon St here and I like the Beavers at home

WAS allowing 6.1 ypc on the road
OSU averaging 474 yards per game
OSU +4 in turnover margin/WAS is -2

WAS QB Morris completing just 57% of his passes 4 TD/5 INT
OSU QB Noland completing 72% of his passes 9 TD/2 INT
OSU 535 Total Yards in 45-27 win at USC last week
OSU defense allowing just 3 ypc and 58% completion rate

WAS already has a loss to Montana and allowed over 450 yards to Cal last week
Oregon State’s offense is rolling, I like them to win this

WAS 1-7 ATS last 8 as road dog
WAS 5-11 ATS last 16 road games
OSU 4-1 ATS last 5 as home favorite

Free MLB “Barking Dog” Premium Pick with Analysis for Friday, October 1st

By

Nick Hub

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October 1, 2021

As the MLB regular season comes to an end, we have been more selective with our plays but we found a barking dog here! We are 17-7 in our last 24 MLB dog plays, 4-0 in our last 4 plays and 41-28 (59%) our last 69 MLB, CFB, NFL plays. This is one of 2 premium plays for tonight and have a loaded slate for the weekend. Join now at SPORTS PICK HUB !!

You can also get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

With the postseason looming, the Tampa Bay Rays head to New York to take on their divisional rival Yankees at Yankees Stadium tonight. The Rays have clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs while the Yankees are leading the wildcard race by 2 games with the Mariners, Red Sox and Blue Jays in the mix. Some could say the Rays have nothing to play for and should rest their players. However, the opportunity to knock out their rivals out of the playoffs would certainly be enjoyable for Tampa. Here are some quotes from Rays players that prove they wont lay down this weekend.

“There’s going to be pressure on them,” Rays veteran centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier said. “You get a team rival like us and the history — we haven’t played them in a while — and I’m just looking forward to a fun-filled, playoff-atmosphere weekend to really get our juices flowing before the real thing starts.“… They’re going to throw their absolute best at us. Every move possible, their lineup, their pitching, they’re going to do everything. It’s going to be Game 7 to them the whole weekend. I love that atmosphere, and it feels good to be in the driver’s seat when you’re talking about our situation compared to theirs. It’s going to be a heck of a weekend.”

“This is another good Yankees team that we could see in the postseason, so we’re not going to slack off or take any of these games off,” Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe said. “We’re going to come out, and we’re going to try to win all three.”

Now, lets dig into some stats. Rookie lefty Shane McClanahan will take the mound for the Rays. He has been great lately posting a 2.91 FIP in the second half of the season and owns a 3.35 xFIP on the road this season. On the other side, the Yankees will turn to lefty Nester Cortes Jr who has regressed since the All-Star break and owns a 4.53 FIP compared to his 1st half FIP of 1.91. Tampa Bay has struggled against lefties if you look at the stats for the full season but they own the 2nd best wOBA (.360) in the past 2 months. The Rays are not going to let up against the Yankees, no chance. Good value here.

Take the Rays +112

Week 5 CFB Free Plays

By

Michael Fordham

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October 1, 2021

Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throws during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

In addition to these 7 free plays, I have 6 plays up for my premium members in CFB this weekend. My premium plays have hit at a 66% clip and netted my members +16.35u in just over a month. If you’d like to become a premium member for just $50/month, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT

This is a premium play that I decided to also include on my free play card. Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive of a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points(Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year). The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.

*CFB(1u): Tulane/East Carolina OVER 64.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

I’ve had a hard time hitting my Over plays so far this season, but this one was just too good to lay off. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is now in his 4th year and has consistently demonstrated the ability to march the ball down the field. Tulane can get some pressure on the QB, but they are what I’d consider a “boom-or-bust” defense. In other words, if they don’t get pressure on the quarterback, they’re likely to get carved up. Given that this Pirates offense is riddled with experience, I expect them to be up for the challenge. That being said, I’m very high on what the Green Wave can do offensively. Sophomore QB Michael Pratt has tons of upside, and he’s surrounded by a solid 1-2 punch at WR as well as a good set of WR’s and TE’s. To put it simply, I’m anything but scared of the East Carolina defense. Both teams are in the top half of the country in plays/game, so pace is on our side. I really like what each of these offenses can do, and I am expecting a back-and-forth shootout in Greenville.

*CFB(1u): Oregon/Stanford UNDER 57.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Oregon enters this game as just 8 point favorites, and I think that’s warranted. Mario Cristobal has developed a reputation of failing to cover large spreads, specifically in conference play. Oregon is a run-first team, and given that QB Anthony Brown has completed just 57% of his passes this season, it’s reasonable to assume the Ducks offense sputters here in their first road conference game. Stanford QB Tanner McKee has settled into his role nicely as the starter, but this is by far his toughest test in his young career. It’s hard to find many flaws in Oregon’s defense, and by simply possessing the far superior athletes, I think they’ll show out nicely. Each team is in the bottom-half in the country in plays per game, and each is likely to focus on establishing the run. If this total was at, say, 55, I probably wouldn’t play it. But at 57.5, I do see some value on the Under.

*CFB(1u): Florida/Kentucky UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 5 PM CT

Florida QB Emory Jones looked to be in complete control last week against Tennessee, and the first-year starter has shown clear signs of progression already through this young season. However, we’ll see what he’s really made of in Lexington, which will be his first career road SEC start. Kentucky has quietly started the season 4-0, and with the home crowd behind them, I think they can throw off the Gators’ rhythm. There are a lot of new faces on this Kentucky defense, but they’ve done a great job of limiting big plays so far this season. In their Week 2 bout with Missouri, they didn’t allow a gain of more than 24 yards from an explosive Tigers offense. The Gators should be able to establish the run, but I’m still not convinced that Jones can make the big-time throws when it matters most. That being said, I’ve been extremely disappointed with the Kentucky offense this year. We were told all offseason how Will Levis was finally the QB they needed to start to open up the passing game, but that just hasn’t materialized up to this point. Coming off a 16 point performance against lowly South Carolina, I have a hard time trusting the Wildcat offense in this one. Florida is extremely improved on the front 7, and they will be selling out to stop what is a solid Kentucky running attack. I had Kentucky’s OL as one of the worst in the SEC entering this season; this game could very well prove me right given Florida’s pass rushing ability. This game always seems to come down to the wire; if Kentucky wants to keep that trend rolling, it will need to do so via a low scoring game. I expect to see the defenses take center stage and for this game to stay under the total.

*CFB(1u): Liberty ML(+105) @ UAB–Sat. 6 PM CT

After becoming one of the best Group of 5 teams a year ago, Liberty has gotten off to a slow start this season offensively. This was first evident in Week 2 when they put up a mere 21 point performance against Troy, and then it happened again last week in a 24-21 loss at Syracuse. Hugh Freeze is one of the best offensive minds of this generation; out of principle, I’m taking Liberty at a plus-price in this game because a Hugh Freeze-led offense simply can’t continue to have these sorts of struggles. UAB is no slouch defensively, but I’m putting my trust on the arm and legs of Malik Willis and the mind of the Liberty HC.

*CFB(1u): Boston College +15(-110) @ Clemson–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

I don’t know what more Clemson needs to show us before we can all admit they are simply not a very good football team. You can excuse a close loss to Georgia to open the season, but to squeak by Georgia Tech by 6 and then lose on the road to NC State has to set off the alarm. Not only that, but injuries have reared their ugly head on it’s team. Star DL Bryan Breese suffered a season-ending injury last week, and #1 RB Will Shipley is also on the shelf for an extended period of time. DJ Uiagalelei is tasked with playing behind a poor OL and hasn’t developed any continuity with his WR’s. Boston College gave Clemson fits last season and should’ve won that game if not for a late Clemson comeback; I think this game will play out very similarly this year. Jeff Hafley is in his second year in Chestnut Hill and already has BC back on the right track. They’re coming off an OT win against a good Missouri team and should have all the confidence in the world that they can make this a game. Hafley has a reputation of struggling with dual threat QBs and dynamic offenses, and right now, Clemson doesn’t provide either of those threats. It does hurt Boston College that starting QB Phil Jurkovec can’t suit up this weekend, but Dennis Grosel looked plenty competent in a 41 point performance last week. The problems at Clemson are real, and there’s no quick fix to their issues right now. Tuning into Dabo Swinney’s most recent press conferences would indicate that pretty clearly. If the betting markets refuse to adjust Clemson’s power rating, we have no other choice than to keep fading the Tigers.

*CFB(1u): Indiana +12.5(-105) @ Penn State–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

This game features both a buy-low and a sell-high team. Indiana had high expectations coming into the season only to stumble into a 1-2 start. However, those losses came to Iowa and Cincinnati, each of whom find themselves squarely in contention for a CFP bid. Michael Penix struggled in each of those games, but he did show some progression last week with a 373 yard performance through the air against Western Kentucky. You might’ve written the Hoosiers off, but if we’ve learned anything from Tom Allen, it’s that he knows how to get his teams ready to play in these types of games. I’ll tip my cap to Penn State for starting off 4-0, but I don’t think that tells the full story. They easily could’ve dropped one(or both) of their wins against Wisconsin and Auburn; quite frankly, each of those two teams simply aren’t that good. Indiana has shown that they can limit the opponents run game, and even though Penn State’s Sean Clifford has shown improvement early in the season, I’m not ready to assume he’s escaped his past turnover issues. Indiana’s a gritty football team that’s already found themselves in some adversity; Penn State might be getting a little too big for their britches at this point. I will take the points and trust the Indiana offense to keep this a 1 possession game.

Week 5 CFB Premium Plays

By

Michael Fordham

-

October 1, 2021

Premium Record: 20-10-1, +16.3u

*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT

Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive to a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points; Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year. The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.

*CFB(1.5u): Michigan/Wisconsin 1H UNDER 21(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT

If you’re looking for excitement in your weekend, this might not be the game for you. This sets up to be a defensive standoff given what each team has shown this season. Michigan has totally revamped their offense this year to feature an almost exclusive ground attack; QB Cade McNamara has attempted just 13 passes/game this season. This game plan has worked against the lesser competition on Michigan’s schedule, but the Wolverines totally sputtered in the second half last week against Rutgers, recording just 1 first down in the final 30 minutes of the game. Wisconsin has one of the best front 7’s in the country, and I expect them to totally stuff the Michigan run game. That being said, I don’t know how you could have any confidence in this Badger offense right now. Graham Mertz totally sputtered in the second half last week against Notre Dame, and turnovers continue to be a problem for the young QB. On top of that, the Wisconsin RB’s have had trouble breaking off long runs; consequently, Wisconsin has averaged less than 20 points/game this season. This Michigan defense is legitimate in their own right, not having allowed more than 14 points in a game this season and being loaded with experience at each position group. I expect to see tons of punts and stalled drives early in this game, which should allow this 1H total to hit with ease.

*CFB(1.5u): Cincinnati ML(-125) @ Notre Dame–Sat. 1:30 PM CT

Make no mistake about it: This game is Cincinnati’s Super Bowl. With a win in South Bend on Saturday, the Bearcats will likely find themselves in control of their own destiny for this year’s College Football Playoff. Throw out any preconceived notions you may have about Group of 5 teams, because this Cincy team is simply better than Notre Dame. QB Desmond Ridder will be making his 37th career start on Saturday and leads an RPO-style offense that the Irish have had their struggles with this season. Notre Dame has been somewhat vulnerable against the pass this season, so given that the Bearcats have had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I’d expect a sharp and well-executed gameplan from their offense. However, where Cincy is going to win this game is defensively. I expect Irish QB Jack Coan to play, but he is going to be less than 100%. That doesn’t set up well considering the Bearcat DL unit is one of the best in the country. Cincy also has a pair of really solid corners, and I think they’ll be up for the challenge against the Notre Dame WR’s. Again, this game means EVERYTHING to Cincinnati. With 2 weeks to prepare, I think we see a flawless effort from the road favorite. Instead of laying the 2 points, I’ll take Cincinnati on the ML for just a 15 cent tax.

*CFB(1.5u): Nevada +6 @ Boise State(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

I’ve watched a lot of Boise State live this season, and I’ve been pretty disappointed from what I’ve seen. The offense seems to go in dark spells quite often, and the Broncos have failed to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. Nevada is coming off a rather disappointing loss at Kansas State, but the Wolfpack can take solace in the fact that Boise doesn’t have anybody near the capabilities of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. This game has major implications in the Mountain West, and coming off an off week, I think we’ll see a revamped Nevada team. QB Carson Strong is one of the best in all of CFB; seeing what Dillon Gabriel did to this Boise defense, I feel confident that the Wolfpack will get what they want offensively. Strong gets all the notoriety for Nevada, but Jay Norvell has a sneaky good defense, especially in Mountain West terms. Boise State is a team that plays scared and doesn’t seem willing to let Hank Bachmeier air the ball out; I want to bet against those teams, especially when the other team is willing to be aggressive. I made this line 2.5, so I see enormous value on the Nevada side. I think they’ll win the game, but taking the 6 points is the smarter play.

*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma State -3.5(-110) vs Baylor–Sat. 6 PM CT

Baylor proved me wrong(somewhat) last week and sent my 2u best bet on Iowa State -7 up into flames with an outright victory over the Cyclones. The Bears used a hot start offensively and a kick return TD to pull off the upset, but my bearishness on Baylor remains unchanged. They face another tough defense in Oklahoma State this week; through 4 weeks, I would crown this Cowboys D as the best in the Big12. They’ve allowed less than 20 points/game this season and are proven at every position group. Baylor’s run game has a limited ceiling, and the only way they’ll have a chance is through the vertical passing game. Safe to say, I don’t think they’ll be able to execute at the level needed to cover this number. It’s also worth mentioning that Mike Gundy opened up the Pokes’ passing game last week after featuring a run-first attack to start the season; Spencer Sanders threw for 344 yards and 2 TD’s against Kansas State last week in a 31-20 win. I’m not necessarily calling for an Okie State blowout, but I don’t expect this game to ever be in doubt. I like the home team by 10+.

*2 Team Teaser(1u): Nevada +12 @ Boise State, Arizona State +9 @ UCLA(-120)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Nevada play explained above. As for Arizona State/UCLA, I think we’re getting a situation where the wrong team is favored. Arizona State is an easy team to back because they’re talented, well-coached, and experienced. Jayden Daniels is completing 72.6% of his passes through 4 games and possesses a clear advantage over UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. However, the one edge UCLA could have is it’s physicality in the run game, an area that Arizona State has yet to be truly tested in this season. Rather than take a 50/50 shot on the underdog at the +3, I feel much better about teasing the Arizona State up to a 2 possession spread at +9. I think this is a toss-up game that is likely to end up with a close win in either direction; paired with a Nevada pick I feel good about even at it’s posted spread, this simple 2 team teaser should be able to get the job done for us.

*CFB(1u): Northwestern/Nebraska 1H UNDER 25.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

I was higher on Northwestern than most entering this season, but I’m already nearing a point where I’m ready to write off that OVER 6.5 wins ticket. The Wildcats have played QB roulette so far this season, and it appears South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is in position to make his second straight start. However, he managed only 4.4 yards/attempt last week against Ohio, and the lack of stability at the QB position has forced Pat Fitzgerald to revert back to a slow-paced, run-first offense. Nebraska has it’s issues, but I actually think they’re fairly strong defensively. While the Northwestern offense has been a disaster, Fitzgerald seems to have the defense in solid current form. They’ve allowed just 14 points/game over their past 3 games and 7 turnovers over that stretch. Adrian Martinez is prone to his fair share of mistakes, and I think the Northwestern defense is capable of baiting him into some bad decisions early in this game. I wouldn’t advise watching this game for the sake of your sanity, but I do think the 1H Under in this one is a strong bet.

College Football Week 5 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

October 1, 2021

Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 2nd! 35-23 in College Football up 27 Units and 23-18 in the NFL up 8U!

Texas vs TCU +5 O/U 65.5

This handicap is a no brainer for me. TCU looked bad last week and it was against a pretty darn good SMU team that they probably took too lightly while looking ahead to Texas. My question is, what has Texas done to deserve a road favorite over 3 points against a Gary Patterson led TCU team? Lets see who Texas played so far? They beat Louisiana Lafayette with some officiating help. That game was close until the 4th quarter. Next, they lost outright as road favorites to Arkansas by 19 points. Then, they beat down Rice who is one of the worst teams in football. Finally, they took on a Texas Tech team who’s defense is like swiss cheese and beat them handily mainly because Tech lost their starting quarterback in the first half. TCU at least beat a decent Cal team at home. Now TCU doesn’t have the flash and the glamour that Texas has under Sark, but they certainly have some of the grit on defense to be able to slow Texas down some. Now I know that Texas has all the metrics here based on the easier schedule, but even after playing the easy teams, they are only a +.97 yards per play. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the look ahead spot that Texas has to Oklahoma. TCU is coming off a loss and they need a good showing. Looking at this matchup the last 7 years, TCU has won 6 of the 7 games outright and covered 6 of the 7 times as well. Gonna take the Horned Frogs here and call out the fraud in the Long Horns.

TCU +5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Army vs Ball State +7 O/U 47.5

Army has been a pretty big surprise for me as they are currently ranked number 2 in EPA margin, and having some very great success against decent teams like Western Kentucky and Georgia State. Ball State on the other hand is a shell of themselves from last season’s success and they are currently at only one win so far vs an FC opponent. QB Drew Pitt hasn’t been what he was last year and I am not sure that they can turn it around just yet. The biggest issue for Ball State here is that teams have been averaging 4.9 yards per rush and that is with a very weak schedule thus far minus the Penn state game. I just can’t see how they are going to be able to stop the option and that big Army rushing attack that averages 5.22 yards per carry. Right now Ball State is a -1.98 net yards per play which is one of the worst in college football. Army ranks number 11 in yards per point and Ball State ranks 122nd. Sorry, but I have to go with the Black Knights here in this spot until I see something different and I’ll lay the points.

Army -7 – 1.5 stars

LA Tech vs NC State -21 O/U 55

This is a complete spot play for me here. The question that you have to ask yourself is, what is NC State this year? Well, let’s see. They blew out 2 cupcakes and then lost to Mississippi State who isn’t a very good SEC team. The Wolfpack just beat a very over-rated Clemson team and now they are in a massive let down spot. If it wasn’t for the bye week coming up, I would call this a look ahead spot to Boston College but I am not sure that NC State is going to take the Bulldogs seriously. LA Tech is a very dangerous team in spots like this because they had themselves a pretty decent schedule only losing to, yes, that’s right, Mississippi State by 1 point and the SMU team that just beat TCU by 2. I like battle tested group of five teams. I know that LA Tech’s starting quarterback Austin Kendall tested positive and missed last week’s game due to Covid, but their backup Aaron Allen threw the ball at a nice 73% completion last game, and should do just fine if Kendall can’t go. LA Tech ranks a modest 32nd in Pass EPA while NC State only ranks 98th. LA Tech is also a very solid 12 yards per point efficiency stat while NC State is at 15.2. Prepare yourself for a potential large upset this game and if all goes well, you might be feeling pretty good either way in that 4th quarter. Bet the spread for 2 stars and make sure you sprinkle that shit.

LA Tech +21 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Kyle’s CFB Free Play Friday

By

Kyle Hunter

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September 30, 2021

Iowa -3

*3 Star Free Pick on Iowa* Maryland’s passing attack has been very good this year. The Terrapins haven’t played any good pass defenses this year. Iowa has a top 10 or 15 secondary every year. They rank #4 in PFF’s coverage grade so far this year. What is the toughest pass defense Maryland has faced up to this point this season? According to PFF it is #68 Illinois. This is a big step up in class for Maryland’s passing attack.

Iowa is 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes already went to Iowa State and won. This is a well coached team that is laying a small number. The much better defense here should carry Iowa in a big game in the Big Ten.

Take Iowa.

(6-0 last 6 plays. 32-10 last 42 plays! Join in this weekend!)

College Football Free Play – Late Night KNAction

By

Shawn Knoche

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September 30, 2021

When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.

So far the CFB season has been great. 30-20 record thus far with a nice 24% ROI. 3-0 on Free Late night plays.

This week’s late night Free Pick features a Pac-12 battle between UCLA and Arizona State. UCLA -3.5; 55.5 are the current lines. Both teams are 3-1 coming in with losses to strong Non Power Five opponents. UCLA lost to Fresno State at home 40-37 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close. Fresno fumbled in the Red zone with 9 minutes left going in to score. Next possession they fumbled on the first play inside their own 20. Both led to UCLA Touchdowns and allowed them to get back in the game. Fresno outgained UCLA 569-395. ASU lost to BYU on the road 27-17. They outgained BYU 426-361, but 4 turnovers did them in.

I think these two programs are the top in the Pac-12 South early on this year and there’s a good chance whoever wins this plays in the conference title game.

UCLA’s Chip Kelly offense has been chugging along so far averaging 39 PPG. 428 YPG so far and a very balanced attack with 234 Yards through the air and 194 on the ground. The concerning part for me is they have been boom or bust. In non-garbage time they are averaging 3.84 plays per drive. Defensively they have been stout against the run allowing just 64 YPG on the ground. Teams have been able to move the ball through the air a bit, primarily Fresno, but they have been susceptible to big plays.

ASU features dual threat sophomore QB Jayden Daniels. He is extremely mobile and likes to push the ball down the field in the passing game. They have also features a balanced attack averaging 32.5 PPG and 438 YPG. 228 through the air and 210 on the ground. The have an elite offensive lines in the running game and it should be a battle with the UCLA front 7. Their defense has played havoc on opponents so far this year. The are 6th in turnovers forced, and are one also one of the top teams against the run. If they clean up one spot where they have had trouble which is on third down, I think UCLA is in for a rough day trying to move the football consistently.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson the QB for UCLA has been amazing so far this year, but he hasn’t faced a defense quite like this one. I think ASU can get some stops on third down. UCLA is gonna score some points, don’t get me wrong, but if they contain DTR which I expect the old ball coach to find some ways to do I think they have an edge here. Gimme Herm over Chip in a battle of old NFL coaches and watch the Sun Devils win the late night battle in Pasadena. Take ASU +3.5, 2 Units and a healthy sprinkle on the Moneyline.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets – Week 4 ATS Breakdown

By

Kiev O'Neil

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September 30, 2021

Tom Brady pictured, opposing Bill Belichick.

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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units