The Red Sox came out in Game 3 of this series and put an absolute whooping on the Astros, eventually winning 12-3. The Astros understand the nature of the postseason better than anybody; this is their 6th postseason appearance in the last 7 years, and they’ve managed to make 2 World Series appearances in that span. They’ve been let down mightily by their starting pitching youth so far in the series, but they’ll turn to a seasoned vet in Zack Greinke to take the hill tonight. Greinke is well past his prime and didn’t have an overly great season, but he is experienced in this role and was brought over to Houston to win these types of games. In my mind, he has a clear advantage over Red Sox SP Nick Pivetta, who is competing in his first ever postseason and was generally unreliable for the Red Sox this season(4.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.1 HR/9 at Fenway). The Red Sox bullpen has been a strength for them this postseason, but I think that’s bound to reverse course; Boston’s bullpen garnered a 1.39 WHIP during the regular season, good for just 23rd in all of baseball. We are getting incredible value on the Astros tonight who find themselves in a familiar backs-against-the-wall situation. Give me Houston to even up this series.
The NHL Playoff Knockout revenge play is on Florida at 7:10 eastern The Panthers have started fast with a pair of home wins and now will have this one circled in red after a tough 4-2 series loss to Tampa. The Lightning have won the last 2 after losing the home opener to The Penguins but have not looked that great escaping with a pair of 1 goal wins. The Panthers are 5-0 vs a team that allowed 32 or less last out. Look for Florida to win this one. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back for some fantasy football while Kiev O’Neil does what he does! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 7 and NFL week 6 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 8 and NFL Week 7. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for week 8! Then, Dave comes on and the guys talk some Fantasy Football. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev and Dave gives out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Tuesday is opening night in the NBA and we only have fond memories of last season, where we went 207-152 (58%) overall. That’ll be tough to repeat again but trust that we’ll be as locked in and eager as ever to have another exceptional year. Two big games spotlight the first primetime slate of NBA action– here are my picks:
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NBA 20/21 Season: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season: 229-199 (54%)
NFL Season: 45-40 (53%), +20 units
Nets/Bucks under 237.5 (-110), 2 units: It’s no mistake that the association’s “powers that be” have this game scheduled as the opening contest of the 2021-2022 NBA season. The Bucks are the returning champions, and they’ll be crowned as such on Tuesday night, while the Brooklyn Nets stand as the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. Superstars Kevin Durant and James Harden return with big hopes; Kyrie Irving will not. The controversial point guard has chosen his own prerogatives ahead of his team and I can’t say I’m a fan. Either way, Brooklyn moves on with plenty to still be confident about. Joe Harris, LeMarcus Aldridge, Paul Millsap, and Patty Mills (I smell a 6th man of the year award…) join Durant and Harden on a restocked and loaded roster. The Bucks will have their hands full with this new-look Nets team, but the Bucks have no lack of swagger heading into this season. Containing mostly the same exact players as last year, Milwaukee had a full offseason to build even more team camaraderie and chemistry. I like that for the Bucks this season and in this game, but we have a play on the total instead.
For starters, the total is just a huge number, so that had me leaning to the under from the onset. Although regular season games tend to be higher scoring than games we watch in the postseason (for obvious reasons), I think this game will have a very “playoff” feel. Milwaukee must have a chip on their shoulder coming into this game, if not solely because of how little media attention they’re getting heading into it. Not only that, but somehow the champs are the underdogs, at home. The Nets might have an even bigger chip. All the media attention is great but much of it is scrutiny surrounding Kyrie Irving and his antics. Not to mention the fact that this is the same Bucks team that knocked off Brooklyn last season in the Eastern Semifinals. I mention all this to say that it’s hard to imagine tensions NOT being high in this matchup. Tensions, nerves, playoff-feel: that feels like a hard-fought battle in the trenches of the paint and that feels like an under to me.
The brilliance of Giannis Antetokounmpo wasn’t the only thing that led to the Bucks’ winning an NBA Title. Milwaukee flexed tremendous defensive effort throughout the postseason. Against the Hawks they never allowed Atlanta to score more than 116 points. Against the Suns in the Finals, they only allowed Phoenix to score 109.3 ppg. And against the Nets in the Semis, the only permitted 104.7 ppg, and that was with a game 7 that went into overtime! The under is 9-3-1 in Bucks last 13 home games and 6-1-1 in Nets last 8 games overall. Take it and don’t look back!
MLB
ALCS Game 3
Astros at Red Sox 8:08 pm
(Urquidy vs Rodriguez)
Pick: Houston Over 4.5 Runs (+100) MGM ½ unit
Seeing an angle to take Houston to score some runs. I don’t like doing Over 4.5 so only ½ unit
Rodriguez allowed 6 runs in each of his 2 starts vs Astros this season.
Rodriguez has allowed 5 or more runs in 4 of his last 5 starts vs Astros
Rodriguez has allowed 5 or more runs in his last 3 starts at Fenway vs Astros
Houston batting .304 vs LHP last 10 games
Houston scored 5 or more runs in all 3 games at Fenway this season
Houston has scored 5 or more runs in 9 straight
Wind blowing toward that short porch in RF across field at 10.3 mph
Monday Night NFL Game of the Month Headlines along with an A.L.C.S Game 3 Playoff Historical System. NHL Comp Play below
The NHL Comp Play is on the Under 6 goals in the NY. Rangers at Toronto game at 7:10 eastern. Both teams have played lower scoring games in the first week of the season with the Leafs going under in their first 3 as they get solid goal tending and have failed to capitalize on scoring chances. The Rangers have 2 unders and a push thus far and have played under in 15 of 20 as a road dog and 17 of 22 vs a team that allowed 2 or less last out. Toronto is 9 of 11 under off a win and 5 straight unders as a favorite. Look for this game to stay under tonight. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Hey Premium Members! Remember we hit at a 58% clip in the NBA last year and the season is around the corner! Check me out on @BetUSTV and let me know if you have any questions before the new season starts!
My focus will be on the NFL and NBA but we’ve been CRUSHING it in CFB lately, too. MLB will start to fade for me. These NBA picks only include the games I’m betting up until 10.20 — no 10.21 picks yet. None of these have an explanation (it’d be too much to type out), but as always, please let me know if you have any questions and I’d be happy to expand on why I’m betting these lines. Thanks!
10.18
Sox/Astros over 9 **
Titans +6.5 ***
Tannehill over 237.5 passing yards **
NFL Early Lines I’m Betting:
Broncos +5 *
Panthers -3 ***
Jets/Pats under 42.5 *
Bears +13 *
Colts +4 **
Early CFB Lines I’m Betting:
CC/App State over 59.5 **
Cincinnati -28 **
Ole Miss -10.5 **
USC +7 ***
NBA Lines I’m Betting This Week:
Bucks +1 **
Bucks Alt Line (-2.5) *
Nets/Bucks under 238 **
Warriors +4 **
Bulls -3.5 **
Celtics/Knicks under 217.5 **
76ers -2.5 (early line I got, I’d take this up to -3.5) ***
This is going to be an interesting game from the two teams that have the most loudmouth fans in the league (sorry not sorry). I must admit that I had to upgrade Dallas a good amount in my power ratings due to their solid offense that doesn’t seem to have much weakness and an improved defense. You have to give credit to what they are doing down there and up to this point, Mike McCarthy looks competent. My question about this team is what is real and what is fake? Dallas has a nice 1.4 turnovers per game margin which is 2nd in the NFL but I am not so sure that is sustainable. I feel that this turnover ratio might be hiding some deficiencies in their game being that they rank a massive 6th in defensive EPA and efficiency. Looking at yards per play, Dallas gives up a massive 6.3 ranking 28th in the league. Is this ball hocking defense sustainable? Looking at New England now, I have to admit that I had to drop them some in my power ratings but at the same time, this team has a pretty big home field advantage and it showed when they played Tampa Bay. I have New England power rated about 5 points worse than Dallas and being that they are at home, I have to favor them in this situation past the 3. There is also a large coaching mismatch here and I feel that Bill Belichick can muddy this game up to be a much closer result than expected.
New England +4 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Teaser: Bears to +12 with the Rams to -1.5 – 2 stars
Steve and I have went 12-1-1 in Circa picks the last 3 weeks – let’s ride the train to more wins in Week 6! Below are our official Circa plays, enjoy!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 38-33 (56%), +17 units
