As of Wednesday 9/28/21:
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Entering Week 5 of the CFB season, my CFB record sits at 26-22-1, +9.81u. I will have my full card out by Friday morning as we gear up for another loaded slate. My premium plays have hit at a 67% clip and netted my members +16.35u over the past month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Virginia/Miami OVER 62(-110)–6:30 PM CT
Each of these teams is 2-2 to start the season, and neither is particularly happy with how things have played out up to this point. Virginia started the year 2-0, but have dropped back-to-back conference games and seen their defense yield 96 points over that stretch. Losing to Alabama is nothing to feel bad about, but Miami dropped a home game to Michigan State that, quite frankly, the Spartans had complete control of. The biggest question surrounding this game is whether Miami QB D’Eriq King will be good enough to go. It appeared yesterday that he was leaning towards playing, but the latest rumblings out of Miami haven’t been so promising. King’s absence would be a huge loss, but I do think we saw enough out of backup Jake Garcia last week to realistically believe he can show competence against this Virginia defense. Miami doesn’t have the most explosive run game, but they do feature a steady #1 back in Cam’Ron Harris. The Virginia front 7 has been dreadful in conference play, so the path is clear for Miami to establish the run and give their young QB some good looks down the field. Rhett Lashlee is proven as an OC, and I’d expect a good gameplan from the ‘Canes. Virginia’s offense has proven to be quite explosive with lefty gunslinger Brennan Armstrong at the helm; Armstrong is averaging 426 yards/game, good for 2nd in all of CFB. I’m not high on Miami’s defense at all; the notion that Manny Diaz is some defensive savant has to end. The Cavs can get one dimensional at times and veer away from the run, but I would expect Bronco Mendenhall to refine his gameplan given Virginia’s failures over the last 2 weeks. Neither defense is very polished, and both teams play with quite a bit of pace. I anticipate a back-and-forth game that flirts with reaching the 70 point mark. Over is the play.
Thursday card has The MLB Get away Game of the Year with a 100% Late season System as well as NFL and ACC College Football. WNBA Comp Play below.
The WNBA Comp Play is on the Over 170 in the Phoenix at Las Vegas game at 10:00 eastern. Las Vegas is number one in scoring and field goal percentage. In the series the last 7 here have flown over. Phoenix is 7 of 8 over as a playoff dog, 6 of 7 vs a winning team and 17 of 24 off a loss. Las Vegas has flown over in 4 of the last 5 at home, 8 of 11 off a spread loss and 8 of 10 on Thursdays. The pace will be fast again here tonight. Look for Phoenix and Las Vegas to fly over the total. Rob V- GC Sports.
Hello NFL fans and bettors! Last week was the performance we needed! Yours truly earned 26 units in Week 3, going 8-7 for +6 units in single NFL picks and 7-0 for +20 units in teasers– let’s go!!! Here’s my take on the TNF game:
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units
Jaguars +7.5 (-110), 2 units: The embattled Jaguars head to Cincinnati on Thursday night to take on the 2-1 Bengals, who are riding VERY high after their big win at Pittsburgh last weekend. So far there’s not too much to love about the way Jacksonville has played. The Jags are allowing a whopping 427.3 yards and 30 points per game to their opponents in their first 3 games. They’re also really struggling offensively, averaging only 17.6 ppg. First year rookie QB Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been completely abysmal– he’s thrown for nearly 700 yards and 5 TDs already– but he’s also turning over the ball way too much. Trevor has already tossed 7 INTs in his first 3 NFL games, something he’ll obviously look to modify moving forward.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are lovin’ life! Joe Burrow looks more comfortable than I anticipated, showing that confidence and moxie that we’ve learned to love in the 2nd year QB. And Cincinnati’s defense looks considerably better. The Bengals’ defense is top 10 in a ton of different categories, including pass yards allowed, total yards allowed, and points per game. The Bengals are also at home on a short week — so why do I like the Jags tonight?
The Jaguars were IN last week’s game, all game, against the Cardinals. The 3-0 Arizona Cardinals are clearly a team to contend with this year and Jacksonville competed really well, leading by 2 points right before the 4th quarter. And then Trevor threw a pick-six, the Jaguars gave up another TD, and the Cardinals eventually covered the line, winning by 12 points. That cashed our bets last week but I don’t see that happening tonight. The Bengals are in a big let-down spot after that win against Pittsburgh. For the first time in 5 years, the Bengals beat the Steelers last year at home. But it’s been nearly 6 years since the Bengals beat the Steelers AT Pittsburgh– that just doesn’t happen. Until last Sunday. It’ll be tough to match the motivation and excitement that came with that game against a thirsty, desperate Jaguars team tonight. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t played great but he’s learning, and while the Cincinnati defense is better, they still allow plenty of movement up and down the field for opposing offenses. Eventually the Jaguars are going to win a game; who says this can’t be the spot? Former LSU and Clemson QB stars face off for the first time tonight and I think both throwers will have some real success, making this contest much closer than most people (and the books) anticipate. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win– I’m taking the road dog.
We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from www.betsperts.com and @DeepDivePod is back to break down the full slate of NFL games with some leans and some plays! First, Andy and Kiev discuss which of the 5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round has been the least terrible. Then, Andy and Kiev discuss some best practices when approaching NFL Week 4. Next, the guys get right into every NFL game on the slate with either a lean or a FREE PLAY for most of the games. Then, Kiev gives out his Refuse To Lose Teaser that is 2-1 so far. Next, Kiev talks some college football plays for our Saturday fix. After that, Kiev discusses some college and NFL sharp money for the weekend. Finally, Kiev gives out a free UFC on ESPN fight night free play!
NFL: Tampa Bay vs New England – Arizona vs LA Rams – Cleveland vs Minnesota and more!
NCAA: LA Tech vs NC State – Ball State vs Army – Texas vs TCU
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Everyone’s talking about the STL 17 game streak which is undoubtedly impressive. The streak I’ve been riding is the Cubs going OVER 13 of their L15. Their combination of mediocre pitching and young bats is a great recipe for Overs. Cubs starter Hendricks has been a winner all season long but in his L10 only 4 games he’s allowed under 3 ER’s. This young Pirates squad is still looking to prove themselves and are going down fighting. The CHC has been fighting for their best pitcher and it shows with his 14-7 record. The wild card in this one is the Pirates young prospect, Roansy Contreras. He looked good in his first game but only threw one inning. This will be his first start in the bigs, and it can go really great or really bad. PNC park has winds blowing out to RF tonight according to Ballparkpal.com, so we could see some balls get out tonight. With the lower 8.5 total, worth riding the streak for this bettor.
CHC/ PIT OV 8.5 (-114) 1.14u
*UCL: Manchester United to Win & Under 4.5 Goals (-118) vs Villarreal
Manchester United have had a difficult time over the past three or four games. Especially when looking at the 2-1 loss to Young Boys in the first game of this group. But that loss just makes this match even more important for the red devils and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who’s job has been in question by the media in recent weeks. Solskjaer will put a team out there that includes the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Paul Pobga, Bruno Fernandes in a game where that creativity will be needed. This Man Utd/Villarreal matchup has ended in a 0-0 draw four out of the last five times these two have played. There’s no doubt Villarreal have the defensive stability to hold off United, we’ve seen it several times now, so the under 4.5 goals is justified. But, this is a must win for Manchester United if they want to be in any kind of control of this group. While many believe yet another 0-0 scoreline is in order, the attacking talent at United will win them this game. The match will also take place at home, so United did not have to travel but will have to impress the loud, judgmental Old Trafford crowd. Also, the Manchester United players will surely be up for this one as it was Villarreal that beat them in penalties at the end of last season in the Europa League final. Take United to win this revenge match, in a somewhat low-scoring affair.
*UCL: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+170) vs Juventus
Originally I planned on going with Chelsea Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals (-154) due to the fact that Chelsea are away from home… but realized that I was just playing it too safe (if you want a safer pick, take that!). Chelsea simply rarely concede goals. They have kept clean sheets in four out of six Premier League games this season with the two goals coming against Liverpool and Manchester City. They now face a struggling Juventus side that are without Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata who are both influential to the Juve attack. Chelsea also haven’t scored more than three goals in a match so far this season, where Juventus sit in tenth in Serie A and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Juventus are really struggling at the moment, and although it will be tough for Chelsea playing in Turin at Allianz Stadium, the terrible form of Juve and the exceptional form of Chelsea will write the story. Expect Chelsea to sneak a 1-0 or 2-0 victory today.
*UCL: Sevilla Win (+160) vs Wolfsburg
Sevilla are in great form to start the season, they are unbeaten in seven matches in all competitions. They also haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of those games and have scored in six out of the seven. Sevilla are the far more experienced side in European competition, and with an underwhelming draw last time out, they will want to get back on track and take control of this group. With Wolfsburg conceding 17 shots against a weaker Lille side in the first group game, I expect Sevilla to take control of this game and create chances that will lead to goals based on the gap that suspended centre back, John Brooks will leave in the Wolfsburg defence. As Sevilla are so defensively sound and have been for many years, expect the upcoming Wolfsburg side under Mark Van Bommel to be exposed at the back and ultimately lose this game.
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