Coming off a 24 point loss to the Cowboys, it’s clearer than ever that the Giants are an absolute dumpster fire. While QB Daniel Jones cleared concussion protocol and will be good to go for this one, he’s struggled mightily playing in the Meadowlands and will run into a very tough matchup with this Rams defense. Even worse, he’ll be without star RB Saquon Barkley, top WR Kenny Golladay, and possibly WR’s Darius Slayton and/or Sterling Shepard. The Giants’ inability to sustain drives has left their defense hung out to dry, and that won’t bode well facing one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Rams might be 4-1, but they know they’ve left too many points on the field over the last 2 weeks against the Cardinals and Seahawks after a blazing hot start. I think we’ll see the Rams come out aggressive and the Giants fail to keep up, which could very well result in a lopsided score like we saw in NYG/DAL last week. I’ll make an exception and lay this big of a number with the road favorite.
Aaron Rodgers has absolutely owned the Chicago Bears throughout his Hall of Fame career, and I expect that trend to continue this afternoon. The Bears might’ve picked up against the Raiders last week, but this is still a team with glaring issues. Justin Fields is completing just 51% of his passes this season and will not be helped by one of the worst coaches in the league in Matt Nagy. To make matters worse, Chicago will be without both David Montgomery and Damien Williams at RB and will have to rely on rookie Khalil Herbert to carry the load. This offense simply doesn’t have what it takes to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and a dynamic Packers offense. I don’t typically lay this big of a number with a road favorite in the NFL, but this situation absolutely warrants it.
Dec 26, 2019; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Eastern Michigan Eagles defensive back Brody Hoying (24) celebrates with teammates after getting a fumble recovery during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here. You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 31st! 58-41-1 in College Football up 31 Units and 36-32 in the NFL up 2U!
Ball State vs Eastern Michigan +1.5 O/U 55.5
Some handicaps come easy if you know how to understand pace of play and the weather report. Ball State started off horrible and then greatly improved their defense holding Toledo, Army and Western Michigan all under 22 points. They also have a pretty slow pace at 26 seconds per play and only 67 plays per game. Eastern Michigan on the other hand isn’t exactly known for their offense and when they played teams that weren’t named UMASS, ST. Francis and Texas State, they couldn’t even score more than 20 points. Eastern Michigan ranks 108th in plays per game at 65.4 and a very slow pace of play at 27.14 seconds per play. Eastern Michigan’s Red Zone defense has been stopping opponents from scoring TDs and they only allow 22 points per game after 6 games. The Eagle’s defensive pass EPA ranks 24th in the nation which is pretty good for a MAC team. This is going to be a sloppy game with potential rain and 16 MPH winds. I like the under here to hit with ease.
Under 55.5 points 2.5 stars
Auburn vs Arkansas -4.5 O/U 53.5
This spread is a bit low because of the market thinking that Auburn played Georgia better than Arkansas so therefore they might be the better team. I am going to call BS on that. Arkansas has had the tougher schedule having to play 4 ranked teams to Auburn’s 2 and the Hogs still rank a nice 21st in EPA margin to Auburn’s 60th. Also, the Tiger’s win vs LSU isn’t aging all that well while the Hog’s win against Texas looks pretty solid. Arkansas has performed well vs top opponents minus Georgia and Arkansas strength of schedule ranks 3rd in the nation to Auburn’s 60th. Even after all of this, the Hogs have a slight yards per play advantage over the Tigers. I think this is a good spot for the Hogs to redeem those 2 recent losses.
Miner Nation is going to hate for me this one, but I like LA Tech to cover this one. Line dropped from it’s open of -9 which I understand, UTEP has started better than expected at 5-1 on the season. LA Tech damn near lost to FCS school SE Louisiana second game of the season. UTEP’s defensive numbers are respectable, allowing 4.3 YPP (yards per play) to LA Tech’s 5.7. However, the superior defensive numbers the Miners have can be thrown out in my mind as they have played the weakest schedule in the country.
LA Tech isn’t much better at 85th, but they did play well in all of their losses. I’m not crazy about the number at 7, so grab the 6.5 if it’s available to you at your book. Money agrees with me on this one, coming in slightly more to the LA Tech side. If the -7 (+100) scares you off I don’t blame you… It’s not a great value play. But I’m also looking for the Bulldogs to come out hot off of their Bye so taking the 1H -3.5 sounds even better to this bettor.
Saturday card is loaded. The 100% ACC Game of the Year, Our Executive Level TIER 1 Side, the Early 5* Blowout along with the BIG 10 Game of the Month, EPL Soccer and MLB League Championship Power System plays. A huge day overall. College Comp Play below.
The College Comp play is on Wisconsin at 8:00 eastern. The Badgers are going to cause problems for Army as the Knights like to run the ball and Wisky has the #2 rush defense. The Badgers will wear down Army as they are a massive team on both sides of the line and can throw the ball better than Army. Wisconsin has covered 6 of 8 non conference. Army has failed to cover 5 of 6 with rest, 4 of 5 as a road dog as well as 4 of 5 after allowing less than 100 on the ground. Normally this would be a trap game for a power conference in the middle of their league schedule. However with Wisconsin favored by 14 and looking to get back to .500 and Army figuring to have a tough time on offense. We will back Wisconsin here. On Saturday we have a huge card up led by the ACC Game of the Year and our Executive Level Tier 1. There is also League Championship Power Systems in MLB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we are expecting another big day. For the College Comp play. Lay the 14 with Wisconsin. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units and are 4-1 in the Postseason. Join at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Jose Altuve has been hitting .313 with 5 hits and 1 homerun in the playoffs and in 32 at bats against Sale, he owns a .414 wOBA and has 10 hits including 1 double and 3 homeruns. Take Over 1.5 total bases +120
Alex Bregman has hit .375 with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in the playoffs and owns a .530 wOBA and has 4 hits including 2 homeruns against Sale. Take over 1.5 total bases +130
Enrique “Kike” Hernandez has been hitting .435 with 10 hits and 2 homeruns this postseason and owns a .340 wOBA and 1 homerun in 11 at bats against Valdez. Take over 1.5 total bases +135
How many weeks is it going to take to see that this Clemson team is not the Clemson team that we all know and are used to? 7? 10? 12?
Out of 5 games, the only time that Clemson has has beaten a team by more than 6 points was against FCS South Carolina State!
Clemson has a poor 91st in EPA Margin and only +.88 yards per play counting that awful FCS Blowout.
Syracuse on the other hand found new life with quarterback Garret Schrader leading the way.
Syracuse is a nice +1.31 net yard per play and I think if they had Garret Schrader quarterbacking at the beginning of the year, they would have never dropped that game to rutgers.
Dino Babers has pulled this upset off once and it would not surprise me to see him do it again.
CFB
Michigan St at Indiana Saturday 12 pm
Pick: Michigan St -4 (-115) 2 units
I don’t like road favorites laying more than a FG but I like this Michigan St team and I do not like what I see with Indiana. MSU bye next week before playing Michigan so no look ahead
I just don't see how Indiana wins unless MSU just comes out and lays an egg. Bye week next week so no look ahead to Michigan I don't think. IU can't run or pass against tougher opponents.
Tuttle was backing up Penix for a reason and Penix isn't very good.
MSU averaging 34 ppg last 3 games
MSU Walker avg 7.1 yp
MSU Thorne QB 14 TD/2 INT, 1,576 yards
MSU WR Reed, Nailor both averaging 21 ypr , combined for 11 TD
MSU defense bend but don’t break at times, #94 in yards allowed but #27 in points allowed
MSU Offense #15 int total yards, #23 in ppg
Indiana can’t run or pass the ball effectively it seems against good teams
Indiana run game 3.4 ypc
Hooisers 52.8 Completion %, Tuttle 8 for 18 passing
Hoosiers #107 in Total yards, offense isn’t even in the top 75 in passing or rushing yards
IU averaging 19 ppg last 3 games
*EPL: Leeds vs Southampton BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-106)
Probably my favorite play of the weekend. Four out of seven of Leeds’ Premier League games have gone over 2.5 goals. Having watched all but one of their games, Leeds look like they have so many goals in them, Marcelo Bielsa sends his players out to attack at all costs and that shows seeing as they have the third-worst defensive record in the league. So, there are definitely goals in this for Southampton as well. Southampton is yet to pick up a win this season and three of their four points have come in low-scoring games against top-eight teams. They have only played one team at the lower end of the table which ended in a 2-2 draw vs Newcastle. In conclusion… take this pick. When Southampton plays teams at the end of the table they are able to open up tactically and attack a little themselves, this Leeds team will pounce on that opportunity, and will be tough for the Southampton defenders to contain in such an open game. (-106)
*EPL: Leeds Double Chance & BTTS (+140) vs Southampton
Same reasoning as above. I just feel that Leeds has a big chance to take at least a point from this game. Southampton is struggling and still are yet to win, they will be eager and try to play on the front foot at home, but the Leeds counter will be too much for them to handle. (+140)
*EPL: West Ham Double Chance (-182) vs Everton (Sunday)
This pick was one of the easiest choices for me to make. West Ham has become a very consistent team. They don’t have any significant injuries and are coming off a disappointing loss to Brentford last time out, so will be looking to bounce back. Everton has come up with some crucial results as of late thanks to players like Demari gray and Andros Townsend stepping up. But with Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin still sidelined with injuries, I don’t see Everton’s attack being threatening enough to get a win against this tough West Ham side. West Ham will at the least take a point off of Everton here. Easy money. (-182)
*EPL: Aston Villa Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals (-134) vs Wolverhampton
Wolves don’t have a single Premier League game over 3.5 goals in the seven games played so far, and they are not due. They defend so well and make it difficult for any team to score against them. But, they have also only scored five goals in those seven games. Wolves are known for low-scoring contests and don’t expect different on Saturday. Villa on the other hand do have goals in them. They have scored ten this season and have a lot of creative talent on that end. They also only have had one game go over 3.5 goals in the seven games played, and to top it off, they are still undefeated at home. The last match between these two sides was, of course, a 0-0 draw. I expect another low-scoring contest that Villa may be able to nick. (-134)
*EPL: Leicester vs Manchester United BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (-106)
Both United and Leicester have only one clean sheet this season. Both sides have also scored in all but one game. All but two of Leicester’s games have hit both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. With Cristiano Ronaldo coming off of an impressive hat-trick for Portugal, Paul Pogba impressive in France’s Nations League win, and Marcus Rashford available again… you CANNOT bet against Manutd scoring goals. Now, Leicester has started the season off slowly by their standards. But Jamie Vardy’s speed is always a constant threat, and with Raphael Varane AND Harry Maguire both out with injuries, Vardy and co. should create many chances against a very weakened United backline. The last three games played between these two have all hit both teams to score and over 2.5 goals… don’t expect this one to go any differently. (-106)
*EPL Parlay: Norwich vs Brighton Under 1.5 First Half Goals + Brentford vs Chelsea Under 1.5 First Half Goals (-116)
The first half under parlay. Brighton has only conceded five goals this season and I don’t see Norwich scoring in the first half against that defensive record. Norwich has only scored two goals in seven games but are coming off a 0-0 draw and are looking a lot better defensively. Only six of Norwich’s 16 conceded have come in the first half of games while Brighton has only scored three first-half goals. I expect a 0-0 first-half result as Norwich will focus on defending and Brighton will struggle to break them down.
To the second-half of the first-half parlay… Chelsea has only conceded one first-half goal all season which was a stoppage-time penalty against Liverpool. Brentford has only conceded two first-half goals this season. Chelsea’s back five makes them a dangerous force on the defensive end and they should certainly keep Brentford out for at least the first 45 minutes. Chelsea has scored 16 goals with seven coming in the first half, and although that stat could be a little worrying, they do tend to start slow in games against teams like Brentford. (-116)
