- The Chiefs out-gained the Chargers 437 to 352 yet lost 30-24. A 4-0 turnover ratio did them in.
- The Patriots out-gained the Saints 300 to 252 yet lost 28-13. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
- The Giants out-gained the Falcons 346 to 296 yet lost 17-14. Turnovers were equal but bad efficiency did the Gmen in.
- Pittsburgh out-gained Cincinnati 342 to 268 yet lost 24-10. A 2-1 turnover ratio and allowing the big plays beat them.
- The Buccaneers out-gained the Rams but most were garbage yards.
NFL Week 3 Misleading Final Scores
MLB Free Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Giants – September 29, 2021
Another day another dollar for yours truly in baseball, as the under 7.5 in the Phillies vs. Braves game hit on Tuesday, making us 41-20 (67%) over our last 61 plays — Not too shabby! Here’s another free pick for your hump day!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units
Giants -1.5 (-128 at BetOnline.ag), 1.28 units: There are plenty of angles and ways to convince yourself to bet big on San Francisco all week and all of them are valid. The Giants have been steadily winning and holding onto their first place spot in the NL West all year, clinging onto small leads to stay ahead of the 2020 World Champion Dodgers. In true form, LAD has kept pace with the Giants, but they just haven’t found a way to edge them out for that top spot. As we approach the final week of regular season baseball, San Francisco remains 2 games ahead of their rival as they welcome the Diamondbacks to Oracle Park for (likely) one more series win against the NL West bottom-feeder. The Giants have predictably owned Arizona all season, winning 15/17 games of their head-to-head series, with 10 of those wins by margins of 2 runs or more. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have been one of the best offenses in baseball, rated top 5 in OBP, Slugging % and wOBA. Of course that’s nothing new since they’ve been top 5 in almost every offensive category all season. The Diamondbacks (shocker) have been one of the worst all year and over the last 14 days. Alex Wood will get the nod today for San Francisco while Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Although their overall stats are similar, these two teams are not. Arizona is 20-59 on the road, while San Francisco is 50-26 at home and 54-20 in their last 74 games as a favorite. Adding the supreme motivation of protecting their top-spot as this year’s NL West champ, I’m on the home-team Giants to win by margin yet again.
Sanderson Farms Championship – Preview & Picks
Team USA absolutely dominated Team Europe in the Ryder Cup winning by a score of 19-9. This was the largest margin victory since Continental Europe began playing in 1979. This performance was extremely encouraging from a US perspective as they have historically struggled against Europe. Even with all the drama coming into the Ryder Cup, they were able to come together. The US team is also very young and should have most, if not all, of these players returning for the 2022 Ryder Cup held in Italy.
We’re now onto the second event of the 2022 PGA Tour, the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The Sanderson Farms Championship has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1994. Prior to that this tournament was generally played opposite to a major. However, with the current prize pool and FedEx Cup points at stake, the tournament has had a more competitive draw each year. This tournament still has a relatively weaker field compared to other events but, that’s to be expected during the Fall season.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: September 30, 2021- October 3, 2021
- Location: Jackson, Mississippi, United States
- Course: The Country Club of Jackson
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,461 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Champion bermudagrass .110″
- Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .450″
- Rough: 419 bermudagrass/ Zeon zoysia 2″
- Purse: $7,000,000 / Winner $1.260 Million
- Fedex Cup Points: 500
- Stimpmeter: 12 feet
- Avg. Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft
- Water Hazards: : 7 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
- Bunkers: 56
- Stroke Average:
- 2020: 71.08 (-0.92)
- 2019: 70.90 (-1.10)
Course History:
The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914, but was moved to it’s current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought. During this renovation he lengthen the course and altered the greens. In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Course Guide:
The Country Club of Jackson plays at 7,461 yards, which is pretty standard length for the PGA Tour. The course is set on a relatively flat property. The fairways are wider than the tour average but, do have trees along both sides most holes. This is a pretty vanilla course when it comes to the Tour with not a lot of hazards or tough approach shots. As seen by the previous scores, you’re going to have to capitalize on birdie opportunities to win this tournament.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Dick Wilson (1962)
- Renovations:
- John Fought (2008)
- Comparable Courses:
- Coarales
- Silverado
- Innisbrook Resort
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, September 30, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, October 1, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, October 2, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, October 3, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
Weather:
- Thursday: Showers 78 F, 7 mp/h SSE, 79% Humidity, 60% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 77 F, 8 mp/h SE, 70% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 9 mp/h SSE, 68% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Isolated Thunderstorms 76 F, 7 mp/h S, 73% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gaines: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Greens in Regulation %
- Driving Distance
- Par 5 Scoring
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020: Sergio Garcia (-19)
- Price: 70-1
- 2019: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
- Price: 66-1
- 2018: Cameron Champ (-21)
- Price: 66-1
- 2017: Ryan Armour (-19)
- Price: 125-1
- 2016: Cody Gribble (-20)
- Price: 125-1
Picks (Outright):
- Mito Pereira (+3500)- Draftkings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Keegan Bradley (+3500) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Carlos Ortiz (+5000) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.0 Units
- Denny McCarthy (+15000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.06 to win 9.0 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.68 Units
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
WNBA Bet- 9/28 PHX at LVA
Going to take the +7 with PHX Mercury tonight, although this line has moved from +5.5, I like the value getting the extra points. The Aces have a better team with better depth but the Big 3 for Phoenix has been lights out lately. This could be Taurasi’s last year in the league so I’m expecting MAX effort in this series. These teams split their two previous matchups, but both were close with the visiting team taking the victory. PHX also just went into Seattle and took that game but that score was misleading because they let Seattle come back at the end to take it into OT. I’ll also be sprinkling the ML in this one.
PHX+7 (-105) 1.05u
Week 3 NFL ATS Review
Hi all! Starting today, I’ll be uploading a weekly NFL ATS Review video that will be short, to the point, and focused on summarizing where we went right/wrong on last week’s bets. View the video below and subscribe to my YouTube channel to stay in the know!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
NFL Season Record (so far): 25-22, +14 units
September 28th Premium MLB Play
Premium Record: 20-10, +16.35u
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 9(-120)–6:07 PM CT
These two teams as well as the Red Sox find themselves in a battle for the 2 AL Wild Card spots entering this final week of the season. The Yankees enter this series riding high off a sweep in Boston, but the Blue Jays have caught fire over the past month to put themselves in this position. Rather than look at a side in this game, I think the Over has quite a bit of value. Blue Jays SP Hyun Jin Ryu has been reliable throughout his career, but he’s struggled to adjust to pitching in the Rogers Centre. In his 6 starts in Toronto this season, he has nabbed just 2 quality starts. The Yankees lineup is still prone to inconsistency, but they’ve shown me enough down the stretch of the regular season to lead me to believe they’ll put together some good swings tonight. After Ryu, I have little to no faith in the Blue Jays bullpen; the Yanks should have ample opportunities in the late innings to add some runs. However, Toronto’s offense is on another level, and they’ll get a favorable matchup tonight. Yankees SP Jameson Taillon had found his groove after the All Star Break but unfortunately has been on the IL for over 3 weeks. His overall numbers for the season aren’t great, and his 1.6 HR/9 especially doesn’t match up well with this dangerous Toronto offense. The Yankees bullpen is clearly more reliable than Toronto’s, but I still believe they’re prone to late inning meltdowns. I understand that totals will tick down as the games get more meaningful, but this is too big of an adjustment. I like the Over in this AL East showdown as my best bet tonight.
September 28th Free MLB Pick
I started out the week 1-0 with a winner on the Cowboys last night, which brought my September record to 36-30-1, +12.66u. Today, I’m rolling with 2 MLB plays, 1 of which is reserved for premium members. Those plays have hit at a 67% clip and netted my members +16.35u in just 1 month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Cardinals F5 UNDER 3.5(-110)–6:45 PM CT
The Brewers have locked up the NL Central title, while the Cardinals have used a 16 game win streak to all but lock up a spot in the NL Wild Card game. However, each of these teams still have unfinished business over the final week of the regular season, and this division matchup sets up to be a low scoring game. Adam Wainwright is perhaps one of the easiest pitchers to back when pitching at home; this season, he has recorded a 2.72 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 0.7 HR/9 pitching at Busch Stadium. The Brewers are led by their pitching and frankly aren’t that impressive with the bats; Wainwright has good numbers against this Milwaukee lineup both this season and throughout his career. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff also has good numbers against the opposing lineup and has a WHIP below 1.00 pitching at home and on the road this season. The Cardinals have done virtually everything well over their magical win streak, but this lineup is vulnerable to getting overmatched by a pitcher of Woodruff’s capability. I trust each of these SP’s far more than I trust either lineup, and considering the ramifications of this game, I’d expect to see a very low scoring game in St. Louis tonight.
Fantasy Football Week 4
Key Injuries:
- WR AJ Brown with a hammy and could miss next week.
- RB Christian McCaffery is out at least 3 weeks with a hammy.
- WR Ju Ju Smith-Schuster rib injury.
- WR Sterling Shepard with a hammy.
- WR Darius Slayton with a hammy.
- WR Scottie Miller for the Bucs has bad turf toe. IR.
- RB James White with a hip injury.
- WR KJ Hamler torn ACL.
- TE Tyler Kroft with a chest injury.
- WR Elijah Moore had a concussion.
Waiver Wire:
- RB Chuba Hubbard for the CMC injury.
- QB Teddy Bridgewater.
- QB Sam Darnold.
- RB Zach Moss from Buffalo.
- WR Jacobi Meyers had 14 targets for New England.
- WR Cole Beasley with his non-vaxxed ass.
- RB Giovani Bernard had 10 targets and a TD for Tampa Bay.
- WR Khalif Raymond had 10 targets for Detroit.
- WR Anthony Miller had 6 targets and a TD for Houston.
- WR Kadarius Tony for the Giants injuries.
- WR Tim Patrick for Denver for the KJ Hamler injury.
- RB Royce Freeman again for the CMC injury.
- TE Darrin Schultz had a monster game for the Boys.
Non-Starters trending up for week 4:
- Any defense playing the Bears week to week so this week grab the Lions.
- WR Calvin Ridley vs Washington’s pass D.
- QB Teddy Bridgewater vs the Ravens Pass D.
- RB Chubba Hubbard is a must start.
- WR Robbie Anderson vs Dallas’s bad pass D.
- WR Jamar Chase is a must start now and he plays Jacksonville.
- WR Tyler Boyd will finally have a game vs the Jaguars as well.
- RB Kenyon Drake will ball out vs the Chargers bad run D.
- QB Jalen Hurts vs Kansas City’s bad run D.
- WR Jalen Waddell vs Indianapolis’s pass D.
- RB Sonny Michelle vs Arizona’s bad rushing D.
- RB Zach Moss vs Houston.
Busts for week 4:
- RB Ezekiel Elliot vs the Panthers top run D.
- RB Ty’Son Williams vs the Broncos rushing D.
- RB Latavious Murray vs the Broncos rushing D.
- RB Saquon Barkley vs the Saint’s rushing D.
- RB Damien Harris vs Tampa’s rush D.
- WR Marquise Brown will have it tough vs the Broncos.
- QB Kirk Cousins vs Cleveland’s great D.
Nasty Sleeper: Chuba Hubbard. He will get all CMCs workload and more.
Sports Wagering University – Sports Investing
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MLB Free Pick: Phillies vs. Braves – September 28, 2021
Baseball is still happening and the MLB playoffs are upon us. Here’s my free play for your Tuesday slate– we’re a crazy 40-20 (66.6%) over the last 7 weeks! For premium plays in baseball, football, and every sport moving forward, click here and become a part of the winning team! Check out my results on Twitter, you won’t be disappointed!
Phillies/Braves under 7.5 (-105), 2 units: It’s been nearly two months since these two teams faced off and now they’re neck and neck leading up to the NL playoffs. Atlanta leads Philly by 2 games in the NL East and this series should decide who will take the crown. Tonight both teams will send out two of their better starters– Zach Wheeler for the visiting Phillies and Charlie Morton for the home team. Morton has seen some negative regression over the last month, averaging 4 hits and just over 2 runs allowed over his last 5 starts. Not bad overall, but I’m sure the bullpen and Morton expect better results. Zach Wheeler continues to perform at a very high level, permitting only 3 runs in his last 23 innings. This is one of those high-tension, primetime spots, in essence it’s a playoff series, and I expect these two commanding throwers to keep this game low scoring. I’m on the under.
