The Bengals have started the year 3-1, and the future is undeniably bright with Joe Burrow leading the way, but I’m not ready to crown them yet just because they beat Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. The Packers come into this one off 3 straight wins, and I like the way Aaron Rodgers has responded after a dismal Week 1 performance. The Packers are the more complete team at this point, and I think the market has overreacted to the Bengals’ success this season.
*NFL(1u): WFT +8.5 vs Saints AND Panthers +3 vs Eagles(-110)–Noon CT
Washington picked up a gutsy road win in Atlanta last week, and I believe Taylor Heinicke will be able to carry that momentum into today. WFT’s pass defense has been suspect at best this year, but Jameis Winston has a history with INT issues, and the Saints WR corps has yet to solidify itself. I’m not saying WFT will pull off the outright upset, but I do think this will be a one possession game. I’m going to continue playing against the Eagles until they give me a reason not to. While they did play Kansas City close for the majority of last week’s game, I’m not ready to trust Jalen Hurts in any spot right now, especially on the road against one of the more underrated teams in the league. Sam Darnold should have a chance at hitting on some deep balls today, and I’m willing to bet he hits on some of those chunk plays and gets the Panthers to 4-1.
The Jaguars are a BAD football team to begin with, and the last thing they needed was for their Head Coach to become a distraction off the field. I know Tennessee has looked spotty at times this year, but I actually like playing them here in a bounce back spot after a brutal loss to the Jets last week. Derrick Henry should be able to completely take over this game and open up the passing game for Ryan Tannehill. I’ll lay the 4.5 as my best bet for this NFL Sunday card.
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 33-26 (56%), +19 units
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Chicago vs Las Vegas -5.5 O/U 44.5
The Narrative on this game since before the season even started has been that it will be a home game for the Bears because lots of their fans will go to Vegas, but I think that people are forgetting that there is travel, officiating, and a lack of similarity of their real stadium all baked into the 3 point advantage. This should be around a 2 assigned for The Raiders in their home field. I really do not understand why the Raiders are not a clean touchdown here. The Bears are absolutely terrible on offense and it’s even worse when it comes to road games with the Bears averaging only 184 yards per game away from Chicago. The Bears are also dead last in yards per play away from home at 3.3. One would think that the Bears defense could keep them in this game today but the stats say different. The Raiders rank 8th in QB pressure rate while the Bears rank 22nd. Both teams rank next to each other in defensive EPA per play and the Raiders get the nod on the offense. My power ratings has the Raiders winning by 7 points if you only give them 2 points for home field advantage. My Algorithm has the Raiders winning by 10. Going with the Raiders to win by margin.
LV Raiders -5.5 – 2 stars
Green Bay vs Cincinnati +3 O/U 50.5
Lots of people look at these teams and the first thing that they say is bad defense for both of these teams but the stats kinda tell a different story here. Cincinnati ranks number 7 in opponent EPA per play while Green Bay ranks 22nd even when counting that bad first game vs the Saints. Since that loss, Green bay has only allowed 17 points twice and 28 points to San Francisco that was mainly garbage yards and pass interference calls. Neither team has really been killing it in offensive EPA with Green Bay ranking 16th and Cincinnati ranking 22nd. Cincinnati also ranks 5th in defensive DVOA as well as opponent yards per play while Green Bay ranks 8th. I see both teams stopping each other to settle for FGs so I’ll take the under here.
Under 50.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Dallas to -1 with the Browns to +8 – 2 stars (this isn’t a premium)
Sunday card has the NFL Non Conference TOTAL of the YEAR and an NFL Executive Level TIER 1 Side headlining along with Divisional Round Game 2 Power System Plays and TOP 6* Sunday night Football. Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play is o Houston plus the 8-9 points at 1:00 eastern. Much like our play on the Jets last week from a similar bounce back off a shutout system we will have to hold our nose here. Houston actually fits an 84% Dog system as well. The Texans have covered 6 of 8 after scoring 14 or less and 4 of 5 as a dog. New England has failed to cover 8 of 9 off a spread win and 4 of 5 as a road favorite. This is alot of points to lay with a rookie Qb on the road pitting a pair of 1-3 teams. The mostly likely scenario here is a close New England win with the Texans hanging around for a spread win. Play on Houston plus the points. On Sunday a Powerful card is up with the NFL Non Conference Total of the Year going early, then an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 side later on and a 6* Sunday night Football play. We also have more Divisional Round MLB Playoff System plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the NFL Comp play. Take the Texans. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Total steamed up from 52 open because of Tennessee’s blowout of Missouri last week. Unfortunately Missouri is allowing the most Rush YPG in the country. South Carolina comes into this one relying on their defense as they have all year long due to their relatively unproductive offense (103rd Scoring). Tennessee’s offensive strength has been their run game (8th Rush YPG) and that is the Gamecocks weakness (68th v. Rush YPG)., so I understand why 67% tickets are on the over. Tennessee Coach Josh Heupel wants to run with his 10th nationally Scoring Offense. I understand why 67% tickets are on the over. But 60% of the money is on the Under. I hate Unders as much as the next guy, but oftentimes that is where the money is made. This game will be a clash of styles. South Carolina is 4-1 to the Under on the season, I know, because I’ve been riding this streak since the preseason injury woes at QB. I’ll keep on riding this one until SCAR’s defense or offense proves otherwise.
SCAR/ TEN UN 56.5 (-110) 1.1u
FAU at UAB -3.5
Buying low on UAB with their season opening QB out last week. Also the Blazers are off of a home loss against a good Liberty team. Selling high on FAU coming off a blowout win over a weak FIU squad last week. Huge disparity between 75% tickets on FAU to cover, yet only 56% of the money. Replacement QB for UAB got plenty of action last year so should adjust after a poor outing last week. UAB has a good team coming into the season expected to win the C-USA West. They can do it with their above average defense (45th Scoring Defense) against decent strength of schedule so far. FAU’s defense is not terrible either (63rd Scoring Defense). However, the Rush Defense is FAU’s weakness (121st Rush YPG), and UAB really wants to run the ball (Rush 41 att/pg v. 21 pass). This conference showdown should favor the home team.
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Penn State vs Iowa -1.5 O/U 41.5
This might be the biggest game of the weekend. Two huge undefeated Big 10 teams square off in the Midwest! This is also an ugly total here in this game, and it really says that points will be at a premium this game. Both of these teams have had the best starts in the big 10 along with Michigan but I still do not understand why Iowa isn’t the bigger favorite here and I do not understand the Penn State money bringing this so low. Strength of schedule is actually pretty equal on paper with these teams with the slight edge to Iowa especially now that Penn State’s victory over Wisconsin isn’t aging well. When it comes to Yards per play, Penn State definitely wins this one with a +1.89 net YPP to +.75 for Iowa, but going back to strength of schedule, The Nova blowout win for Penn State certainly throws off some of Penn State’s stats. Looking at EPA margin, Iowa edges out Penn State by 4 spots so no real advantage there. My biggest thing in this game is that Iowa’s defense should be good enough to win this game at home. Penn State relies big on their receivers Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, but Iowa has some of the best corners in all of college football with Matt Hankins and Riley Moss who could defend almost anybody 1 on 1. I like the fact that Iowa is on a little extra rest here and Spencer Petras is playing very well. I had Iowa Power rated higher than Penn State before the season started and I don’t think that anything needs to change here. I have Iowa by about 6 at home with the extra rest. I will take the Hawkeyes here as the short favorite.
Iowa -1.5 – 2.5 stars
Memphis vs Tulsa -3.5 O/U 62
Here is a battle of the underachievers from last week. Tulsa got destroyed at home vs Houston and Memphis dropped an ugly game at Temple. Looking at this game, both teams are a bit flawed. Memphis lost their quarterback Grant Gunnell due to injury early in the season which has put a bit of a stop to their high flying pass offense and Tulsa isn’t the same team from last year without Zaven Collins leading their defense who is now an NFL starter for the Cardinals as well as their QB Brady White who is finished in the league. Some of those wins in 2020 were also a bit lucky in my opinion. I am not really interested in a side in this game but the total sticks out to me some. Tulsa was embarrassed last week and should play more solid defense against a team who has been struggling at QB. Next important piece of information is that Tulsa can only move the ball with the run game this year, and that is where Memphis has been solid only allowing 3.56 yards per rush. Finally, there is going to be some wind this game around 15 MPH in Tulsa Oklahoma and that should hurt both teams passing situation. I am going to take the under 62 points and I like it down to 58.
Under 62 – 2 stars
LSU vs Kentucky -3.5 O/U 50.5
This is a spot play here for me and I also do not think that the right team is favored.
Kentucky did a great job last week beating rival Florida but let’s face it, Florida massively outgained the wildcats in yards and really blew the game more than Kentucky won it.
Up to the Florida game, Kentucky hasn’t really played anyone with a pulse and I do not think that Will levis can pass the ball all that great. Kentucky also should not be able to run much vs LSU being that the Tigers only allow 3.4 yards per rush. LSU at least beat Mississippi State on the road and had to weather the storm the first game of the season vs UCLA.
Max Johnson has been solid at QB so far for the Tigers and he has a nice 16-4 TD to interception ratio.
The biggest thing besides strength of schedule is the spot for Kentucky. They are in a massive let down situation and they have Georgia on Deck. I could see them laying down this game while LSU is more desperate after losing to Auburn.
I am going to take the Tigers here with the hook. I think that they could win this game out-right.
Huge Saturday up with BIG 10 Game of the Year + Executive Level TIER 1 Total, High Noon red river 6*, SEC Game of the Month, MLB, Soccer and Wilder vs Fury, College Comp play below.
The College Football Comp Play for Saturday is on Texas San Antonio plus the points at 7:00 eastern. UTSA has covered the last 7 on field turf and 8 of 9 as a road dog. They take on a Western Kentucky team that has failed to cover 25 of 33 after allowing 285+ pass yards,5 of 7 when favored and 6 of 8 off a loss. The Road runners are quietly taking points despite the 5-0 record. They fit a powerful long term system that plays on dogs of 3 or more vs a team that allowed more than 14 points in games 6. Look for UTSA to get the cover at the very least here today. On Saturday we have a tremendous card up led by the BIG 10 Game Of the Year, Executive Level TIER 1 Total, High Noon red river 6*, SEC Game of the Month, Platinum supreme Soccer, MLB Playoff System and Wilder vs Fury play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebok/twitter to Jump on and cash out on this huge card. For the College Football Comp play. Take the points with Texas San Antonio. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We went 2-2 in our free plus money playoff props yesterday which brings us to 6-4. I have 4 more plus money prop below for today. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units. Join at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Dansby Swanson owns an unbelievable 1.146 wOBA, 4 hits and 2 homeruns in 5 at bats against Corbin Burnes and in the last week of the season he hit to a .410 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 total bases
Yandy Diaz owns a .562 wOBA, 6 hits including 2 doubles and 1 triples in 12 at bats against Chris Sale and has a .328 wOBA and 1 homerun in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +140
Wander Franco owns a .889 wOBA, 4 hits including 1 triple and 1 homerun in 6 at bats against Chris Sale and .289 wOBA with 1 double in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +130
Justin Turner owns a .571 wOBA with 3 doubles in 7 at bats against Logan Webb and has a .498 wOBA with 2 homeruns in his last 20 at bats. Take Over 1.5 total bases +120
We went 2-2 in our free plus money playoff props yesterday which brings us to 7-4. I have one plus money prop below for the Braves and Brewers game with more to come in another article. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units. Grab our 1st MLB Postseason premium play for this game at SPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Dansby Swanson owns an unbelievable 1.146 wOBA, 4 hits and 2 homeruns in 5 at bats against Corbin Burnes and in the last week of the season he hit to a .410 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 total bases
