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Week 4 CFB Premium Card

By
Michael Fordham
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Premium Plays: 18-7, +19.5u

*CFB(2u): Iowa State -7(-110) @ Baylor–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Everybody seemed high on Iowa State coming into the season, and many went as far as to say they thought the Cyclones were set up to make the playoff. After another decisive loss to their rival Iowa, you’ve seen a lot of people turn on the Cyclones. However, the slow start for ISU shouldn’t have been a surprise; Matt Campbell has consistently struggled in the first few games of the season since he arrived in Ames. The Cyclones used last week’s trip to Las Vegas as a “get right” game; Brock Purdy completed 21/24 of his passes, Breece Hall ran for 100 yards, and the Cyclone defense held UNLV to just 3 points in an absolute drubbing. Fresh off a great performance, they’ll now travel to play one of the most fraudulent 3-0 teams in the country. Baylor has had a cakewalk of a schedule to this point(@ Texas State, Texas Southern, @ Kansas), and I believe they are in for a rude awakening entering conference play. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is still unproven as a passer against quality defenses, and that’s not what you want to have facing this Cyclone defense. ISU is good at all 3 levels, but because they can stop the run with their D-Line, they will have the luxury of dropping 8 and making Bohannon beat them with his arm(and mind). Baylor’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but the Cyclones have enough quality experience(4th year QB, star RB, safety net TE’s, cohesive OL) where I don’t think they’ll have much trouble. I really think ISU wins this game by 20 against a phony Baylor team; call it my best bet for this weekend.

*CFB(1.5u): Kentucky/South Carolina UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat. 6:00 PM CT

Kentucky came into the season with a new offensive coordinator and preaching that they’ll start to open up the offense. However, when they played Missouri 2 weeks ago, the offense reverted back to a heavy ground attack as Will Levis attempted just 18 passes. While the Wildcats have 2 really good RB’s to work with, I think the Will Levis hype is unwarranted. If he was so good, he would’ve found a way to take the job from Sean Clifford at Penn State. South Carolina is obviously not set up to win in year 1 under Shane Beamer, but the one area that could keep them in this game is their D-Line. Just 2 weeks ago, the Gamecocks recorded 5 sacks against East Carolina. While Kentucky’s OL should match up better, I had very low expectations for their protection entering this season. Shane Beamer seems to have his team playing with a lot of effort, and I think they’ll surprise some people with their ability to get stops. That said, the Gamecock offense is totally inept, and Kentucky has proven time and time again they are reliable on defense. South Carolina’s best chance to keep this game tight is to make it ugly, and I think they’ll be somewhat successful in doing so. I think this one stays well under the total.

*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma 1H -9.5(-110) vs West Virginia–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

Oklahoma did not look good last week as they squeezed out an ugly 7 point win at home against Nebraska. Questions have started to emerge around QB Spencer Rattler and whether he’s as good as his predecessors. Those are valid, but in my mind totally irrelevant for the game at hand. Oklahoma fans have longing to play more night games at home, and they’ll get their wish here with a primetime game on ABC. That will create an even bigger home field advantage for the Sooners than they usually have and, in my mind, will totally rattle West Virginia. Neal Brown is a competent HC, but the Mountaineers offense has fallen off significantly since Dana Holgerson left the program. This Mountaineers return a lot of experience on that side of the ball, but QB Jarrett Doege severely limits their potential. OU’s defense is much improved, and with a raucous home crowd behind them, I think they’ll have a lot of success early. I was surprised to see how much the Sooners ran the ball last week; I think we all overlooked the fact that they didn’t have a “go-to” WR yet entering this season. However, with each week, those WR’s will develop better chemistry with Rattler, so I’d expect the downfield passing game to improve this week. The Mountaineers were a really good defense in 2020, but they lost a lot of production from that squad. Maryland(a dynamic offense) had no trouble moving the ball against WVU in Week 1, and this sets up as a tough matchup for Neal Brown’s defense. Oklahoma is an established front runner; they consistently start games at home with a huge lead to work with. I expect Saturday to look no different. 

*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky TT OVER 27(-120) vs Indiana–Sat. 7 PM CT

If you don’t know who Bailey Zappe is, you need to learn the name. Zappe began his college career at Houston Baptist before transferring to Western Kentucky alongside his top target Josh Sterns. In just 2 games as a Hilltopper, Zappe has already thrown for 859 yards, 278 of those being distributed to Sterns. This offense is special, and coming off a BYE week, they’ve had ample time to prepare for this matchup with Indiana. I wonder where the Hoosiers’ psyche is following a disappointing 1-2 start; considering WKU presents less of a threat defensively than many of Indiana’s BigTen opponents, there’s a possibility Michael Penix and the Hoosiers offense can start to piece things together this week. All I know is the Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball all over the yard and they’ve shown nothing to this point to where I couldn’t trust them in this spot.

Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, September 25th

By
Nick Hub
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We are 11-5 (69%) on our CFB plays this season after ending the 2020 season hitting 57%!!  Overall, we are 35-22 (62%) in our last 57 MLB, CFB, NFL plays!!  Seven CFB packages and a 6-PACK of winners are loaded for Saturday at SPORTS PICK HUB !!

You can also get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.

The Ohio Bobcats and the Northwestern Wildcats will square off in Evanston, Illinois at Ryan Field on Saturday afternoon.  The Bobcats are coming off an embarrassing display last Thursday night when they got blown out 49-14 by a very good Louisiana Lafayette squad.  That gave them a couple more days to prepare for the Wildcats who are coming off a 30-23 loss to the Duke Blue Devils.  Ohio comes in averaging 301 yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and just 16.3 points per game against defenses giving up 25.8 points per game.  The strength of the Bobcats is running the football and I expect them to attack a vulnerable Northwestern defense who is giving up 5 yards per rush so far this season.  The Wildcats enter this contest averaging 364 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play and 22.7 points per game.  I mentioned that Ohio’s strength is their rushing offense, well their weakness is definitely their rush defense as they are giving up a healthy 5.5 yards per rush.     Northwestern has been shaky holding onto the football as they average 2.5 giveaways per game this season, which is good enough for 115th in the nation.  Neither of these teams have quick scoring offenses as Northwestern has the edge averaging 18.6 yards per point (97th in the nation) while the Bobcats need 25.9 yards between each point (118th in the country).  Additionally, wind speeds of 10-13 mph are expected during game time which will also force both teams to run more.  I expect this to be a grind it out game that will feature a heavy ground game with Northwestern winning this one by a score of 23-12 and to go under the total by 13 points.  Take Under 48 points

Week 4 CFB & Week 3 NFL Best Bets

By
Chris R. Farley
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We had a great start to football with 3 wins Thursday night (Marshall +7, Panthers -7.5 and a teaser on CAR/Total under 50)! Let’s keep it rolling as we tackle another weekend on the gridiron. Become part of the winning team and check out my premium picks here!

Troy -24 (-110), 2 units: The 2-1 Troy Trojans travel to Monroe, Louisiana to take on the 1-1 UL Monroe Warhawks. Troy started off their season with an impressive win over Southern, where they showed off a diverse amount of offensive talent in a 55-3 victory. I think this game could look a lot like that one. UL Monroe is a bottom-feeder in the Sun Belt Conference and their stats show it. Two games isn’t a huge sample size but if their performance against Kentucky was any indication of how they stack up against stiffer competition, the outlook isn’t great for their 8:00pm showdown Saturday with the Trojans. UL Monroe’s defense has been atrocious, allowing 424.5 yards per game in two contests. On the other side, their offense is only averaging 2 yards per rush and 168 total yards per game. The Trojans are in a different class– they showed a gritty defensive effort in one-score loss to Liberty and their offense is consistent and capable. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record – Take Troy!

Falcons +3 (-120), 2 units: The Falcons somehow started their season as favorites at home against the Eagles, but we were all over that one. After getting punked in Week 1 in Atlanta, the Falcons headed down to Tampa Bay to face the reigning Super Bowl Champions and things didn’t get much better. Personally, I took the Falcons at +12.5 since it was a divisional game and they’ve shown the moxie to hang with elite teams in the past. Not so much last Sunday. Matt Ryan sealed their loss with two straight pick-six interceptions and it was another blowout loss for the stumbling Falcons under new coach Arthur Smith. The Falcons are suffering from conservative play-calling, maybe that’s a first year coach thing, and a very shallow roster on defense. Still, Atlanta can put up points– they did against the Bucs and kept it close until the 4th quarter, which is more than we can often say for the New York Giants. My New York Giants (yes, I’m a fan, old news) started the season looking like the same old team we all knew, mustering only 13 points (and really they only scored 7, the last TD in garbage time was cheap) against the Broncos in Week 1. The Giants looked better last week against Washington but that’s nothing new for the G-Men. Danny Dimes was 4-0 against the Football Team coming into that game. For what it’s worth, Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense looked considerably better last Thursday night. Be that as it may, I just can’t trust the Giants as a favorite, even against the Falcons. Their defense has underperformed and their offense is too inconsistent and conservative, which is indicative of a Jason Garrett led scheme (aka a snooze fest). The Falcons are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 4-8 the last 4 years as a favorite and they were 0-2 ATS as a favorite last year, and as a Giants fan I can not-so-proudly attest to this pain. Take the Falcons to cover in a game they could very well win.

Cardinals/Jaguars over 52 (-110), 2 units: This is a game script bet that I really love. The Cardinals have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in the early part of the NFL season. Kyler Murray is showing 3.0 versions of himself in his 3rd year– he’s healthy, seemingly even quicker on his feet, and his arm looks refined. He’s also reading the field better and making much better decisions. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence could only wish to share the same vantage point. Trevor spent his entire pre-professional career without any losses. After two NFL games against pro athletes, the kid hasn’t won yet. He’ll improve and in 2 weeks he’s unleashed a few really impressive throws, but the Urban Meyer-led offense clearly still has some kinks to work through. Arizona, on the other hand, has scored 34 and 38 points in their first two games against mid-tier, formidable defenses. Kyler looks unstoppable and it appears, key word appears, that Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes are starting to work. I love that narrative going up against the Jags defense. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to stop two average offenses in Denver and Houston, allowing them to score 37 and 23 points for an average of 437.5 yards per contest. That’s right on par with the Cardinals, who have averaged a whopping 467 yards per game thus far. Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t been stellar but they can move the ball down the field, and last week showed us that the Cardinals’ defense still has plenty to improve upon. I like this bet even more since Lawrence has shown a tendency to throw errant passes– he already has 5 INTs. The Cardinals should easily get into the 30s and I expect the Jags to at least eclipse the 20s– what’s Urban and this developing offense have to lose? I’m on the OVER.
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English Premier League Preview & Picks – Chelsea vs Manchester City – September 25, 2021

By
Patrick Gates
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We have a clash of the heavy weights in matchweek 6 of the English Premier League. Last years winners of the EPL currently sit at 5th in the Table (3-1-1, 10 points), while Champions League winners Chelsea sit on the top of the Table (4-1-0, 13 points). This will be the first time these two teams face off since Chelsea upset Manchester City in the Champions League final by a score of 1-0. This is the match of the week as these are two favorites to win the EPL this season. With a win here, Chelsea can move 6 points clear of City while if City win, they can tie Chelsea win points and move up in the Table. This should be a great game, lets breakdown this matchup and find some winners.

 

Manchester City @ Chelsea

Information:

  • Kick-Off: 7:30 AM ET
  • Location: Stamford Bridge – London, England (Chelsea home)
  • TV Schedule: NBC Peacock

 

Odds (via Draftkings):

  • Moneyline
    • Chelsea (+165)
    • Manchester City (+175)
  • Spread
    • Chelsea -0.5 (+165), Chelsea +0.5 (-200)
    • Manchester City +0.5 (-190), Manchester City -0.5 (+175)
  • Draw (+230)
  • Total: 2.5 (U 2.5 -125, O +100)

 

Preview:

Chelsea has yet to lose in the EPL this year, with four wins, and a draw through their first five fixtures. They also are leading the League with a +11 goal differential. They have only allowed one goal this season, which came back on August 22 when they drew Liverpool 1-1.

Manchester City has also been lights out as of recent after dropping the first League game 1-0 to Tottenham. Since that game, they have not allowed a goal against in their last four EPL matches. They have the second best goal differential in the League with a +10. In their most recent EPL game, they drew Southampton which was a massive shock as they were heavy favorites to win.

Both of these squads played in the League Cup earlier this week with Manchester City defeating the Wycombe Wonderers 6-1 and Chelsea knocking off Aston Villa 4-3 in Penalties.

Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea side currently on a three game unbeaten streak against Pep Guardiola’s Machester City squad. Chelsea knocked them out of the League Cup, defeated them in a Premier League fixture, and in the Champions League final as mentioned previously.

This should be a low scoring matchup given the games these teams have played against each other in the past. Thomas Tuchel prides himself on his squads ability to possess the ball and shut down any attacking threats from an opponent. However, with the addition of Striker Romelu Lukaku it has given Chelsea an attacking ability that they were desperately lacking last season.

Manchester City saw the departure of their long time Striker in Sergio Aguero to Barcelona in the summer transfer window. However, City replaced some attacking power with the signing forward Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for 100 million pounds.

 

Pick:

DRAW NO BET – Chelsea (-110)

Given the recent struggles that Pep Guardiola has had matching up against Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea side, I believe this game is a close one that ends in 1-0, 1-1. Chelsea have been in great form as of late and have shown no signs of slowing down. The addition of Lukaku it’s another aspect that Manchester City didn’t have to account for in previous matchups.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

NFL 2021 Week 3 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday 9/22/21

Sharp Money On:

  • LA Chargers +7 to +6.5 at Kansas City – 28% tickets and 60% of the money.
  • Arizona -7 – at Jacksonville – 88% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Bengals +5.5 to +3 at the Steelers – 47% tickets and 77% of the money.
  • Broncos -5.5 to -10 – 47% tickets and 90% of the money.  This dipped back down.

Sharp Totals:

  • Chargers vs Chiefs over 52 to 54.5 – 50% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Cardinals vs Jaguars over 49 to 51.5 – 64% tickets and 95% of the money.

NFL Thirsty Thursday Free Prop Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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@theoddsbreakers

NFL Thursday night football. #sportsbetting #freepicks #props

♬ Over & Over – Tim McGraw & Nelly

College Football Week 4 Sharp Money – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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As of Wednesday 9/22/21 

Sharp Money On:

  • Wake Forest +4.5 at Virginia – 47% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Utah State +9 hosting Boise State – 54% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Mississippi State +4 to +2.5 – 44% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Iowa -22 to -23.5 hosting Colorado State – 88% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • Stanford +6.5 to +4.5 hosting UCLA – 46% tickets and 70% of the money.
  • Oklahoma -16 to -17 – 36% tickets and 72% of the money.
  • UAB +4.5 to +3.5 at Tulane – 43% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Oregon State +13.5 hosting USC – 47% tickets and 96% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Bowling Green vs Minnesota over 49.5 to 51 – 66% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • UTSA vs Memphis over 65.5 to 68 – 55% tickets and 93% of the money.
  • Arkansas State vs Tulsa over 62.5 – 33% tickets and 86% of the money.
  • Nebraska vs Michigan State under 52.5 to 51.5 – 54% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Akron vs Ohio State under 70.5 to 67 – 33% tickets and 70% of the money.
  • Cal vs Washington under 46.5 – 45% tickets and 94% of the money.

Alan Cashman’s Wk 4 CFB: UTSA at Memphis

By
Alan Cashman
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Off to a 6-3 start for Subscriber Plays in CFB and 3-1 in the NFL.

Subscribe here at the Oddsbreakers to receive ALL Subscriber Plays, All Sports https://theoddsbreakers.com/alan-cashman/


CFB
UTSA at Memphis 3:30 pm
PICK: UTSA +3.5 1 unit

Memphis was very fortunate to get a win vs an SEC team last week with their victory over Mississippi St.

You look at the box score and it shows that Mississippi St controlled the clock, had 26 first downs to Memphis’s 12, and Memphis was only 2 for 12 on 3rd down but Mississippi St hurt themselves with turnovers and mental errors

Texas St is a balanced team on both sides of the ball. Frank Harris at QB can make plays with his feet as well as throw the football

Memphis coming off a high of beating an SEC team, a game they really should not have won, looks like a let down spot vs a very competent Texas San Antonio Team and the numbers show Memphis is prone for a let down going 3-9 ATS their last 12 following a straight up win

UTSA 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a road dog

UTSA +3.5 1 unit

September 25th EPL Free Plays

By
Jaden Lewis
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Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United acknowledges the fans following victory in a Premier League match at Old Trafford in Manchester, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images,)

*EPL: Manchester United WIN & BTTS (+187) vs. Aston Villa

One of the early kick-offs on Saturday is Manchester United vs Aston Villa. United are coming off of a disappointing exit from the Carabao Cup on Wednesday, a loss that has put manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær under even more pressure from a fan base that expects positive results from every game. That pressure will lead to Ole putting out a strong, attacking team at home against a Villa side who won’t just sit back and defend. Manchester United are currently undefeated in the Premier League this season and with a very tough schedule coming up, they will consider this a must-win as they will expect to drop some points with the run of games they have after this. United have only kept one clean sheet in their five undefeated games and have scored 13 goals which is currently ranked first in the league. Expect the Man Utd attack to be too much for a Villa defence who are without Axel Tuanzebe as he can’t play since he’s on loan from the Manchester club. Also, with Villa’s attacking talent in Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins and potentially Leon Bailey, I have no doubt that they will get on the score sheet. The previous match between these two sides finished 3-1, expect it to be similar. — *Safer option: ManUtd Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-163)

*Norwich Double Chance (Win or Draw) (+125) @ Everton

Many who follow the Premier League will look at this one and think I’m crazy. Well I’m not. Yes, Norwich have started the season 0-5 and have only scored 2 goals while conceding 14. Yes, Norwich look like they could end the season 0-38. But hear me out, Everton started the season in great form (as they do every season). They are coming off a 3-0 loss to Aston Villa and historically always tend to drop at this point of the season. Everton are VERY much reliant on Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin for attacking output, and these two were missing in the heavy defeat against Villa and will be missing again at home against Norwich. This pick looks even worse considering Everton are at home, but in my view, Norwich are a team with many young players and Premier League newcomers. Sometimes players get a lot more excitement and energy when playing at such a historic Premier League stadium such as this, as many have dreamed of it their whole lives. Norwich will be well up for this contest and will be aching to get their first point/points of the season against a very injury-hit Everton team. 

 

September 23rd CFB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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Sep 4, 2021; Annapolis, Maryland, USA; Marshall Thundering Herd running back Rasheen Ali (22) rushes through the Navy Midshipmen line for a first quarter touchdown at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

I stayed hot yesterday with a 3-0, +3.15u output in the MLB slate. That moved my September record to 29-22-1, +15.51u and my premium record to 18-7, +19.5u. If you’d like to become a premium member for just $50/month, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Marshall +7(-105) @ Appalachian State–6:30 PM CT

This is sneakily one of the better Group of 5 matchups we’re going to get all season. These 2-1 teams already have one common opponent: East Carolina. App State opened up the season with the Pirates and cruised to a 33-19 win, while Marshall actually fell to ECU last week after surrendering a 17 point lead in the 4th quarter. I’m not going to change my view on the Thundering Herd too much because of 1 bad quarter; if anything, I just might be hesitant to lay big numbers with them going forward. Catching a full touchdown in this spot, I’m hopping all over the road ‘dog tonight. QB Grant Wells has averaged 371 passing yards/game for Marshall and is showing signs of improvements after a strong freshman campaign in 2020. New HC Charles Huff has opened up the offense for Wells, and he has responded nicely. RB Rasheen Ali emerged last week with 189 yards and 3 TD’s, providing some much needed balance to the Marshall offense. App State is a strong G5 team, but I don’t think laying this many points against a quality opponent fits their role. QB Chase Brice doesn’t provide the versatility and consistency you’d like, and he had major turnover issues during his time at Duke. The Marshall defense has recorded 17 sacks through only 3 games, so I expect them to make Brice uncomfortable tonight. App State deserves to be favored considering they have home-field advantage in a stand-alone game, but I see Wells and the Marshall offense being ready to trade punches and keep themselves in this game down to the wire. 

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