Sunday card is loaded with an Executive Level TIER 1 in NFL along with the Non Conference Total of the Year, the SNF Play of the Month and more. We have another big MLB September System and soccer. Comp Play below
The NFL Comp Play is on Minnesota at 4:25 eastern. The Vikings are taking a few points here in their home opener after a pair of tough and close road losses. Game 3 home dogs that lost the first 2 games have covered 75% the last few years and we should see a spirited effort here today. In fact the Vikings have covered 18 of 25 as a home pup including the last 5 playing off a loss. Seattle has failed to cover 5 of 6 as a road favorite and 6 of 7 vs teams under .500. The host team has covered 6 of 8 in the series. Make it Minnesota plus the 2 points here. On Sunday we have 5 plays in the NFL with the NFL Non conference Total of the Year, an Executive Level tier 1 side, the Sunday night Game of the Month, early 5* and more. There is also a big MLB Blowout System and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we are rolling in the NFL and look for another big day. For the NFL Comp Play. Go with the Vikings. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
This is the best game of the week with two potential super bowl teams facing off at the new SoFi stadium in LA. The Bucs have showed well beating the Cowboys and Falcons but their yardage doesn’t look so good on paper being out-gained in total yards so far and benefitting from turnovers. Both of these teams are pretty healthy so there should be no big edge there but I think that the Rams had the harder schedule up this this point and their stats show a bit better than the Buccaneers. My power ratings has this game the Rams by 1 point if you give them 2.5 points for home field but I think we can’t ignore what happened last year where the Rams went into Tampa and opened up a can of whoopass on them. Tampa bay has some of the best weapons in football, but the Rams have the best pass defense and should be able to contain the big plays from Godwin and Evans. Antonio Brown is out for the Bucks so I expect a heavy dose of Scottie Miller which has to be looked at as a downgrade. The Bucs have no answer for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and now that the Rams have a better QB, they will have a lot more of the field to work with. That 27-24 final score last year when the Rams won in Tampa was misleading because the Rams were up by double digits most of this game until garbage time. Jason Pierre Paul will be out for the Bucs and that will hurt their pass rush on Stafford. I think that McVeigh wins this matchup at home.
Rams +1.5 is the play for 2 stars
Green Bay vs San Francisco -3.5 O/U 50
If Bucs/Rams is the best game of the week then Packers/49ers is the second best.
My handicap on this game used to be that the Packers can’t stop the run and Rodgers can’t win in California but that has since changed.
Green Bay made a move this year for Devondre Campbell at inside linebacker and it has actually worked out ok thus far being at least average at stopping the run.
Last year, the 49ers were injured but the Packers got that monkey off their back by beating them at Levi Stadium by double digits.
The 49ers are another team with some serious injury problems where the Packers can hurt them. They lost cornerback Jason Verrett the 1st game of the season and now Emmanuel Moseley is questionable. Not good for defending the pass.
Let’s not forget that the 49ers are very banged up at running back and I think this year Matt Lefleur will challenge Jimmy Garopollo to beat them passing the ball. This isn’t good for the 49ers.
My power ratings has the Packers the better football team here by 2.25 points and this game should be closer to a pickem especially with those injuries.
Packers +3.5 – 2.5 stars
Refuse To Lose 6pt Teaser is 1-1 (total premium teasers are 2-1) – Buffalo to -1.5 with Arizona -1.5 – 2 stars
Hugo Lloris makes save against Arsenal at Wembley Stadium in London, England (Photo by PremierLeague.com)
*EPL: Arsenal vs. Tottenham – 1st Half Correct Score 0-0 (+170)
*1-2 so far in Premier League action this weekend, but when analyzing both Arsenal and Tottenham this season, I very much expect a goalless first half in the North London derby. (+170)
Another pick with decently high odds and good value. One that I can admittedly say is not a certain lock, but a pick that seems destine to happen based on what we’ve seen so far from these North London rivals. Lets start with one quick negative before I hit you with the stats… Football is quite harsh in the sense that a goal can come from ANYWHERE and therefore this pick is a bit risky when thinking a lucky bounce, or cheap penalty can kill the bet so fast. BUT… both Arsenal and Tottenham haven’t looked at all convincing on the attacking end. Arsenal have only managed two goals in five games this season, while Tottenham have three, both of which are in the bottom four of the league in this category. Tottenham have already had three out of their five games finish 0-0 at half-time and are 19th out of 20 in shots created. Arsenal have only scored one first-half goal in their five games played this Premier League season. With both teams DESPERATE to avoid defeat and drop all three points, the approach from both sides will be safe. We’ve seen with Tottenham that they play every game safe, a tactic that Nuno Espirito Santo has been known to implement over the years with Wolves and now Spurs. Arsenal though, have looked very weak defensively, conceding nine goals this season so far, but I think the immense lack of creativity shown by Spurs will be no problem for the Gunners to go into the break with a clean sheet at home. I can certainly still see this game being 1-1 in the end, but I expect both sides to be tentative and kind of feel each other out in the first-half.
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Brian Ortega vs Alexander Volkanovski -185
Sometimes you just have to bet on ugly. This is going to be a great featherweight main event between top contender Brian Ortega and Champion Alexander Volkanovski and I expect some fireworks. Neither of these fighters like each other all that much and they have been taking jabs at each other over the last few months. Let’s look at how these guys match up. Alexander is 32 years old and 5’6 wearing hiking boots. He has some long arms for his size at 71″ reach. Volk is trained in Greco-Roman wrestling and kick boxing. Brian Ortega is 30 years old and 5’9 with a 69″ reach. He is well trained as a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has some of the best standup and ground game in his weight-class. Now the handicap on this fight for me is about points and strikes. Volkanovski is short and stocky with a long reach. He averages 6 significant strakes per minute to Brian Ortega’s 4.29 respectively. Alexander is also better at take downs 2.09 per 15 minutes to .8 for Ortega. Now Volk has faced some of the best fighters in his class and I do not think that Ortega can get the submission that he might need to win this fight. Vokanovski is just too good on the ground, too powerful, and he has almost no neck with a small head making it hard for fighters to submit him. He should be able to get out of compromising situations. I think this fight is about the points and Volkanovski has the best leg kicks in the sport. As a fan I want Ortega to win but sometimes our pocket-book doesn’t agree. I am going to grab the champion here and I think that there is a small chance that the belt will flip if it goes to decision. Alexander wins ugly by points.
Alexander Volkanovski -185 – 2.5 stars
Other Plays:
Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ -120 1.5 star – Ok, this is another 5 round championship bout between a seasoned champion in Valentina and a gap filler in Lauren Murphy. Lauren is a good fighter but she is no match for the best technical fighter in the sport in my opinion. Valentina can do it all and her price says it at -1500. Now even though Murphy has never been submitted or knocked out, I think that she will lose this fight by KO being that this is going 5 rounds and Valentina should be able to bludgeon her some. The problem with Murphy is that she will not take this fight to the ground because it will be end up pretty bad for her as Shevchenko has the massive advantage on the mat. I think we see a KO and if Murphy can go the distance, I am going to pay to see it.
Omar Morales -150 – 2 stars – Johnathan Pierce is coming into this fight at 10-4 with a ton of knockouts but he hasn’t faced anyone with a pulse as of yet. Morales has went the distance with Giga Chikadze whome I think is the number 1 contender in the featherweight division. Omar at 15-1 has the better ground game if his standup fails him and he will use it if needed. I will grab the battle tested fighter here in the first bout of the day.
I’ve been watching this line all week and I don’t mind waiting on an Under play. Weird considering 99% of the money is on the OV 64 in this SunBelt v. AAC matchup, right?Although ARK ST is 60th in the nation in scoring OFF, TULSA is 113th. With Tulsa as an over 2 TD favorite (-14.5) I’m looking for Tulsa to control the line of scrimmage.
Tulsa has been more successful on the ground so far this year (147/ ypg) but has a 2:1 Pass/ Rush First Down Ratio largely due to their opening opponents. ARK ST has the same ratio but has been much more successful with the pass, averaging 370/ypg. ARK ST’s defense is better vs the run than the pass. Tulsa is better against the pass than the rush. Both good cases for the under.
ARK ST almost upset Memphis at home two weeks ago, losing 50-55. That high flying MEM/ ARK ST game does scare me, but Tulsa’s bread and butter last year was their defense. Memphis isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. Tulsa returned the majority of their 18th ranked Pass Defense from last year, they should only improve off of an Ohio State beat down.
I expect Tulsa to lean on their defensive experience to get them through games while working out the offense. When ARK ST faced a good defense in Washington last week, they were almost shut out- losing 52-3. I don’t expect Tulsa to put up those kind of points and their defense may not be as good, but they’re only allowing 223 pass/ ypg. With 75% of the money on ARK ST to cover the +14.5, I’m looking to hedge the UN 64 with a correlated play on ARK ST in case Tulsa can’t get the separation. I think both could hit in this one.
ARK ST UN 64 (-108) 1.08u / ARK ST +14.5 (-108) 1.08u
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FAU vs Air Force -4.5 O/U 51.5
This game is more about matchup than power rating. Air Force had a nice start to the season beating Navy until they faced a team that could pass the ball in Utah State. Now Utah State wasn’t supposed to be good this year but they are certainly exceeding expectations. In Saying that, FAU played Florida pretty tough week 1 and they blew out another option team in Georgia Southern 38-6. FAU had a bad offense bad offense last year but N’Kosi Perry who transferred in from Miami won the starting job and his balling at 63% completions and a 7-0 TD to interception ratio. The most important thing to me in this handicap is that FAU returns 6 of their front 7 from last year and they know how to stop the run allowing only 4.15 rushing yards per attempt last year. I think that FAU can stop the option here and they hand Air Force their second loss of the season.
FAU +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Texas A&M vs Arkansas +5.5 O/U 47
This handicap slapped me in the face when I dove into it. It’s kinda simple to me. Who played the harder schedule? Both were pretty easy, but Arkansas had to play Texas while Texas A&M got Colorado. Slight advantage Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a massive +3.27 net yards per play and Texas A&M is at 2.67. Advantage Arkansas. Which team still has their starting quarterback in and which team doesn’t due to injury? Pig Pig Pig. Arkansas proved that they can stop the run vs Texas and Georgia Southern. They have a better EPA per rush at -.125 over Texas A&M at +.026. I think that the Razorbacks win this game outright and I think that this money line should be seasoned quite well here. Woo Pig Sooooi!
Arkansas +5.5 – 3 stars and fat sprinkle
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin -6.5 O/U 45
This is really going to be a fun game at Soldier Field and I was wondering why the heck it starts so early. These 2 teams are trying to creep into the top 10 and this big win might be good enough to get them in. Wisconsin has that loss to Penn state which isn’t a bad loss at all but at the same time, they should have won that game and they consistently blew their shot in the Red Zone. Notre Dame on the other hand keeps squeaking by team that are either bad or mediocre and last week vs Purdue showed some weakness in their secondary as well as in their overall offense. Let’s face it. Wisconsin’s problems have been in the Red zone over the past two seasons now and they need to get that monkey off of their back in order for me to really trust them. The good news for the Badgers is that they might get their second best player back from injury in LB Leo Chenal being that Jack Sanborn has been their leader and best player by far. On the other side of the coin, if you know the story, Notre Dame starting quarterback Jack Coan was a Badger and quite simply lost his job over a small injury last year and off the hype over quarterback Graham Mertz. I am certain that Coan wants to make a big statement this game but I am not sure that he has the talent to do so. Jack doesn’t have the arm strength to throw it deep over the defense as Clifford did for Penn State and I also do not think that they have the speed to beat out safeties. Graham Mertz himself has made many mistakes by fumbling RPOs and tripping our running backs and if that doesn’t get cleaned up, Wisconsin will not score many points against this Notre Dame defense. My Algorithm has the game 24.22 to 20.51 or the Badgers by about 3.75 points. My power ratings have the game Badgers by 3.5 points on the nose but factoring in Notre Dame’s injuries, I can understand it being around 6. I think that there is more upside with Mertz and the Badgers but no lean on this 6.5 spread tho I think Wisconsin wins this game. I also think points will be at a premium here so small lean to the under. I think if you tease both of these sides it could create a winning bet.
Tease the Under to 51 with Wisconsin to -.5 – 1.5 stars
We have a loaded day of racing at Parx Racing this Saturday with several graded stakes races on the card. The main race of the day is the G1 Pennsylvania Derby that features HOT ROD CHARLIE and MIDNIGHT BOURBON to name a few. MEDINA SPIRIT was scratched by Trainer Bob Baffert on Tuesday after the post positions were revealed. He was quoted as saying “Medina looks good, he is training well, I didn’t like that draw. There is too much speed. It’s a tough race. I have a lot of respect for those other two horses. There is not much separating them, but I would be at a disadvantage. That’s why I’m passing.” Even without the potential Kentucky Derby winner, yes were still waiting on a final decision from the Kentucky Racing committee, the race should still be exciting.
The Pennsylvania Derby is carded as Race 12 on Saturday’s 13-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 12:05 p.m. ET.
#1 FULSOME will try his luck again at Parx after winning the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes a little under a month ago. He ran a career best speed figure in that event and will run a similar distance here. Prior to that race he finished 3rd in the G3 Indiana Derby and won the G3 Matt Winn Stakes. This will be his first G1 Stakes attempt so we’ll see how he handles the tougher competition.
#2 KEEPMEINMIND will likely go off a shorter price as most horses will given that the morning line favorite is out. His only win comes back in 2020 when he captured the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. However, he has faced some steep competition and may have an opportunity to get back in the winner’s circle here. He last race was a month ago when he ran third in the G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes at Saratoga. His speed figures from the last three races also indicate that he’s in great form.
#3 SPEAKER’S CORNER only has three starts to his name but has won two of them. He ran an impressive 107 speed figure his last out to win an Allowance race at Saratoga. The main concerns for this horse is 1, how will he handle the jump in class and 2, he’s only raced in dirt sprints so we have no idea how he’ll handle the increase in length and change in surface.
#4 WEYBURN will give his first G1 Stakes race ago after competing in several G2 Stakes and winning a G3 Stakes race. It’s an interesting move for sure to have this horse jump up to a G1 Stakes but this field isn’t particularly all that strong anymore given the scratches. He’s coming into this race off a two month layoff after finishing 4th in the G2 Jim Dandy back in July. In that race fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND finished 2nd. We’ll see if this layoff allows him to be at full strength. Another interesting note for this horse is that it’ll be his first time racing on Turf.
#5 I AM REDEEMED has been impressive to say the least winning three of his first four starts. This horse has has also posted some impressive speed figures in his last two races (111, 110). In his last out he won the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx a month ago. He’s only ever raced at Parx so he’s familiar with the course. Another positive was he seemed to respond well to the increase in distance his last out compared to his previous races.
#6 BOURBONIC is another horse that has faced some G1 Stakes competition before but has never been able to find the winners circle. In his last race he finished 3rd in the West Virginia Derby. Prior to that, he ran in the G1 Kentucky Derby finishing 13th and the G1 Belmont Stakes finishing 5th. His last win comes back in April of this year where he captured the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. He’s also raced at this course before earlier this year where he ran 2nd in a AOC.
#7 HOT ROD CHARLIE also raced in the G1 Belmont and G1 Kentucky Derby with some better success than BOURBONIC. He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His last race out, the G1 Haskell Stakes, he won but was disqualified after drifting in front of MIDNIGHT BOURBON causing him to clip heels. With Medina Spirit scratched, this horse will go off as the favorite.
#8 MIDNIGHT BOURBON is off a 2nd place finish in the G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes at Saratoga. In that race, fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND ran 4th. Prior to that race, he DNF in the Haskell as mentioned before due to HOT ROD CHARLIE cutting him off. He’ll be one of the main contenders in this race for sure as he seeks redemption from the Haskell. However, HOT ROD CHARLIE has seemed to have his number in the previous races they’ve faced off in.
#10 AMERICANREVOLUTION is another up and comer with winning three of his four career starts. In his last race, he posted a 108 speed figure winning the Albany Stakes at Saratoga. This will be another horse that may have some potential but will take a big step up in class here. Given the speed figure he posted in his last race at a Mile and an Eighth, I wouldn’t count him out.
Race Preview:
Well this race will definitely feature some speed. I AM REDEEMED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, and MIDNIGHT BOURBON will most likely all go to the front and try and push the pace given their running styles. SPEAKER’S CORNER, WEYBURN, and AMERICANREVOLUTION will try and hang off the pace which may be tough given the class of front runners in this race. Following up them will be the closers, FULSOME, KEEPMEINMIND, and BOURBONIC who will hope that the fast pace tires out the field and allows them to make a run down the stretch.
Robertino Diodoro who trains KEEPMEINMIND was quoted as saying this about the scratched of MEDINA SPIRIT “In a way you don’t mind seeing Medina Spirit out of there but with a horse like ours it’s going to take away a bit of the pace factor,” Diodoro said. “It helps a few horses, but not us.” However, the camps for HOT ROD CHARLIE and MIDNIGHT BOURBON were happy about the scratch as they had said it makes for an easier race. MEDINA SPIRIT is a front runner and would have likely pushed the pace a little more than the current horses in the field can.
Picks:
BEST BET WIN: 7 HOT ROD CHARLIE
LONGSHOT WIN: 3 SPEAKER’S CORNER
EXACTA PART WHEEL: 7/ 1, 3, 8
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has the 2021 College Dog of the Year, an Afternoon Blowout, an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 TOTAL and a Late night Bailout. There is also MLB September System plays and Soccer. CFB Comp play below
The Saturday Comp play is on Michigan at 3:30 eastern. Michigan has looked solid this year and has covered 7 of 8 as a home favorite and 5 of 6 after allowing 20 or less points. Today they qualify in a 29-8 Power System pertaining to winning conference home favorites at -26 or less off back to back wins, the last of which they scored 55 or more and won by 21 or more, and their opponent arrives of back to back wins and covers like Rutgers.. The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover 6 of 8 off a win and 4 of 5 after passing for 275+ yards. Rutgers has lost every game in the series and has been blown out every time here on the road. Play on the Wolverines. On Saturday a massive cad is up and led by an Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the 2021 College Dog of the Year, an Afternoon Blowout, Late night Bailout and a few more. There is also our September Specific MLB system Plays and Top level Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we Continue to cash. For the College Comp play. Make it Michigan. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been great. 20-14 record thus far with a nice 22% ROI. 2-0 on Free Late night plays
Late night pick this week features two perennial powerhouses of college football in New Mexico and UTEP. Both these teams come into this game at 2-1. Both have defeated New Mexico St already this year. NM beat them 34-25 at home while UTEP went on the road to get a 30-3 victory at NMSU in Week 0. New Mexico also has a win over Houston Baptist before they got pummeled 34-0 last week against A&M. UTEP has a win over Bethune-Cookman and a pummeling of their own at Boise St 54-13 in which they turned the ball over 6 times.
Both these teams are featuring run heavy offenses so far with NM running it 58% of the time and UTEP 66%. Both teams also play at a very slow tempo with NM at 95th for Plays per minute and UTEP at 123rd. Terry Wilson a Kentucky transfer is the QB for NM. He’s got a great completion percentage at 65.1 % so far with 6 TD and only 1 INT. They don’t throw downfield much though only averaging 6.7 Yards per attempt. UTEP has been more successful throwing the ball when they decide to do it at 10.5 YPA, but its still mostly run, run, run.
New Mexico’s defense has been stingy for the most part against the run, so I anticipate UTEP will have to adjust and throw the ball a little more in this game. IF they can take care of the ball I like them to have a slight edge in this matchup as they have been also very good against the run holding opponents to 3.4YPC.
There’s multiple plays for me on this game on both the side and the total. My favorite play is Under 54 -110 2 Units. – I have it at 47, so lots of value here. I don’t see this game somehow getting to 31-24 without a lot of turnovers and I expect a game filled with run, run, run, run, incomplete, punt. I also like the UTEP side a little better. They were playing ok against Boise outside of the turnovers and special teams miscues. That game was closer than the final score. I like UTEP +1.5 -110 for a unit, and UTEP ML +110 for 1 unit. And since we are already at this point and the Teaser sets up nice I am playing that as well. 6 Point Teaser UTEP +7.5, Under 60 2 Units.
Here’s to hoping we end Saturday night with a bang. You can get all my premium plays for this weekend for College Football and NFL here at TheOddsBreakers.
In addition to these 6 free plays, I have 4 premium plays in this Week 4 card for my premium members. My overall premium record is 18-7, +19.5u; if you’d like to become a member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9. 2021 College Football Record: 21-16-1, +12.86u.
*CFB(1u): UCLA -4.5(-110) @ Stanford–Sat. 5 PM CT
After an inept Week 1 performance against Kansas State, Stanford has recorded back-to-back wins against USC and Vanderbilt. Much of the success can be attributed to first-year starting QB Tanner McKee. McKee was a highly touted prospect coming out of HS, and after completing a 2-year Mormon mission, it doesn’t appear he’s missed a step. However, it’s important that we contextualize those 2 wins; USC is an unstable program that fired their HC due to the Stanford loss, and Vanderbilt is in year 1 of a major rebuilding project. In a stark contrast, UCLA feels like this is their year in year 4 under Chip Kelly. I’m not going to knock the Bruins too much for falling to Fresno State last week because the Bulldogs have proven to be one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. For reference, Oregon only beat Fresno State by a touchdown in Week 1. UCLA is built to beat Stanford down in the trenches, and the Bruins proved in a win against LSU that they are capable of doing so. The Bruins employ a heavy ground attack, which sets up horribly for a Cardinal defense that’s biggest question coming into the year was whether they could stop the run. UCLA can stop the run, and I’m not a big believer in Stanford’s ground attack. As good as McKee has looked, he is still unproven against quality competition like UCLA. Lastly, Stanford’s home atmosphere provides little-to-no advantage for the Cardinal, so I would feel comfortable laying the points with the road team. I expect UCLA to respond strongly off of last week’s loss and match up well with Stanford.
*CFB(1u): Tennessee/Florida OVER 63.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Many coaches in Josh Heupel’s situation would choose to try and run the clock and limit Florida’s possessions in this matchup. However, Heupel isn’t like other coaches, and he’s shown nothing throughout his HC career that suggests he will employ such a game plan. At both UCF and now at Tennessee, Heupel has run his offenses at a shockingly fast pace(for reference: UCF ran 6 more plays/game than any other team in the FBS last season). That style gives both his team and the opposition more chances to score. Florida’s offense found their rhythm in the second half against Alabama last week and will have a much easier matchup against this Volunteer defense. I have questions about the Vols defense at all 3 levels, and with catalyst Anthony Richardson likely to be back healthy for the Gators, I think UF can name their number in this game. However, by the shear number of plays they’ll run, I do think Tennessee’s offense can push the 25-30 point mark. Heupel has been quiet about the QB battle this week, but I believe Hendon Hooker will lead the Vols offense on Saturday. Hooker is experienced from his time at Virginia Tech and has proven to be effective as both a runner and passer. Florida’s defense is much improved from a year ago, but they are still vulnerable to some leakage. I think Florida’s offense sets the tone in this game and we see this one skyrocket over the posted total.
*CFB(1u): Cal/Washington UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 8:30 PM CT
I would classify both of these offenses as disgusting. Washington put up just 17 points through their first two games, while Cal consistently finds ways to avoid the end zone. Justin Wilcox and Jimmy Lake are both defensive-minded HC’s, and this could very well be a “first to 20 wins” type of game. For as bad as the Huskies offense has looked in meaningful games this season, I am still a believer in their defense. Their front 7 should be able to stop the run and force Chase Garbers into obvious passing downs, which is not his strong suit. While Washington put up 52 against Arkansas State last week, I’m not sold that this offense has found their solution. The Huskies have had a hard time establishing the run and have put QB Dylan Morris in less-than-ideal situations. Cal hasn’t looked great defensively this season, but they should benefit from Washington’s offense being stagnant. This should be an ugly game where the Under is the only way I’ll look.
*CFB(1u): Arizona State -14(-110) vs Colorado–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
I backed Arizona State last week against BYU and have a hard time reconciling that loss. Jayden Daniels completed 72.5% of his passes and the RB’s averaged 6.65 YPC, but 4 turnovers crippled the Sun Devils in a game they had no business losing. Coming back home, I expect a much sharper performance from Arizona State this time around. Colorado is totally lost offensively; they recorded just 63 yards last week in a shutout against Minnesota. When you can’t move the chains, you put your defense in a horrible position. I really like this Arizona State defense and think they can dominate the Buffs offense like the Gophers did last week. From there, as long as Daniels and co. can take care of the ball, they’ve proven to be pretty consistent as a unit. I like ASU in a bounce back game late on Saturday night.
*ML Parlay(1u): TCU, Clemson, Oklahoma State(+131)–must be placed by Sat 11 AM CT
TCU takes on rival SMU in the early slate on Saturday. TCU has settled on former 5 star Zach Evans as their main RB, and combined with Max Duggan’s legs, I expect the Horned Frogs to run all over a soft SMU defense. From there, Gary Patterson should be able to scheme up a good game plan against first-year starter Tanner Mordecai. Clemson’s offense has looked wretched through 3 weeks of the season, but they can’t get much worse from here. The main key to NC State’s season was for them to keep star LB Payton Wilson healthy, and unfortunately he will be out for a significant period of time. NC State didn’t show me much offensively in their game against Mississippi State; for how bad the Clemson offense has been, they’ve looked fantastic defensively. This is a good price to buy low on Clemson, but I’ll just take them to find a way to win on the road. Oklahoma State has reverted to a run-first offense(something I never thought I’d say with Mike Gundy at the helm), but I think they’ll open things up on Saturday. QB Spencer Sanders started behind the 8-ball after missing the first game due to sickness, but he’s now had two games to get comfortable. I cannot trust the Kansas State offense with Will Howard at QB, and RB Deuce Vaughn could have a tough time running on what’s a very good Oklahoma State front 7. It could be ugly, but I have a hard time seeing the Cowboys losing this game.
*CFB(0.5u): Navy ML(+770) @ Houston–6 PM CT
This is a total longshot, but this is a principle bet for me. Teams that run the triple option and drain a lot of clock often find themselves to be competitive in games they have no business being competitive in. We saw Army take Oklahoma and Michigan into OT in recent years. I know Navy has been horrific this season, but at these odds, I’m willing to take a shot with them for half-a-unit. I identified Houston as an undisciplined team coming into the season, and the verdict is still out on whether they can stop the triple option. Very little sprinkle for me, but I think it’s worth it.
