Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo from a garage in Flagstaff AZ to discuss the big games for College Football week 6 and NFL week 5! First, Kiev talks about the importance of yards per point and how it applies to the true strength of opponents. Next, Kiev gets into the big games in College Football with some Free Plays! Then, Kiev gets right into the NFL and gives his algorithmic score for every single NFL game for Week 5 with some free plays and leans! Finally, we talk about some sharp money and line movements to close the show out for the week!
NFL: Chicago vs Las Vegas – Green Bay vs Cincinnati and more!
NCAA: Penn State vs Iowa – Oklahoma vs Texas and more!
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Check out our Week 5 ATS Breakdown and get fully prepped for your betting weekend!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 32-26 (55%), +16 units
Thursday card has the 3x Perfect NFC West Game Of The Month, 5* Afternoon Soccer, MLB Divisional Series system, CFB Game Of The week headlining. Soccer Comp Below.
The Thursday Comp Play is on Mexico over Canada at 9:40 eastern in World Cup Qualifier Play. These two met in late summer in the Gold Cup Final in a fiercely competitive game that Mexico won late. In Fact Mexico has taken the last 5 meetings from Canada and have found the back of the net at least twice in the last 7 matches against the Canadians. Mexico is on top of the standings with 2 wins and draw so far. Canada comes in off a pair of draws and wont win here in Mexico. The most likely scenario is another Tight win for Mexico. On Thursday the NFC West Game Of The Month is up along with the College Play of the Week, 5* World Cup Qualifier Soccer and MLB Divisional Series System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and cash out. For the Soccer Play. Make it Mexico. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We had 4 plus money free plays for you last night and cashed 2 of them. Tonight, we have 3 more plus money props for the NL Wild Card game. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units and are looking for our 1st MLB Postseason Premium Pick!! Join now atSPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
Tommy Edman owns a .471 wOBA, 1 double and 1 homerun while hitting .364 in 11 at bats against Max Scherzer and has hit 1 homerun and leads the Cardinals with 8 hard hits and a 50% hard hit rate in the past week. Take Over 1.5 total bases +135
Trea Turner owns a .405 wOBA and 2 doubles while hitting .421 against in 19 at bats against Adam Wainwright and in the past week has hit 2 doubles and 3 homeruns while hitting .458 and owning a .574 wOBA. Take Over 1.5 hits +170
Justin Turner owns a .377 wOBA and 2 doubles while hitting .333 in 9 at bats against Adam Wainwright and in the past week has hit 1 double and 2 homeruns while hitting .353 and owning a .498 wOBA. Take 1.5 total bases +110
We had a fantastic weekend in Week 4, going 10-4 overall in single ATS premium picks for +15 units. That’s a record of 18-11 for +21 units the last 2 weeks! We also went 2-0 in free picks last week. Rollin’ with that energy, here’s a free pick for TNF!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 32-26 (55%), +16 units
Rams -2.5 (-115), 1.5 units: I really wanted to take the Seahawks in this game, at home, but I think this is going to be a different year for Seattle. I bet on the Seahawks last week to win outright against the 49ers and that’s what happened. As usual, Russel Wilson continues to hold this team squarely on his shoulders, but the reality is the Seattle Seahawks are a team hurting for consistency on both sides of the ball. Let’s look at some alarming numbers that stand out about Seattle, according to Sharp Football Analysis:
The Seahawks are last (32nd) in the NFL in plays per game and last in opponent’s plays per game. This is usually an indicator of very poor performing teams.
Seattle is allowing a league-high 462.8 yards from scrimmage per game.
The Seattle pass defense is not pressuring the quarterback (ranked 22nd) and is allowing 19.9 passing points per game (29th).
The Seahawks have run just four offensive plays inside of the opponent’s 10-yard line, the fewest in the league.
Seattle has 32 fewer first downs than their opponent, ahead of only the Texans (-36).
Yikes. It’s reasonable to say that if this was any other team in the NFL without QB Russel Wilson, I don’t know if Seattle wins a game. The Seahawks were fortunate that Jimmy G. got injured during last week’s contest. An unprepared Trey Lance came into that game and did his best, but Shanahan didn’t have a week to strategize and innovate with his rookie talent. Something tells me the Niners will look more buttoned up this week, but that’s not the game we’re talking about.
The Rams got embarrassed last Sunday by Arizona and now they have a short week, on the road, up in the Pacific Northwest with Seattle’s infamous “12th man” in attendance. Clearly that’s not an ideal spot, but I still think it’s a better situational angle than the Seahawks. The Seahawks feel fortunate, the Rams are pissed, and there’s some alarming differences about these two teams that could mean sure disaster for the home team.
While Seattle has struggled to stop the pass and maintain their own pass-rush all season, the Rams have a +9 sack differential. That’s the largest in the NFL. We’ve seen Wilson’s offensive line let him down time and time again and after last week’s beatdown by the Cardinals, something tells me Aaron Donald and the elite front-7 of the Rams will get to Wilson frequently in this contest. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford, who had his worst game of the year last week, should have all day to pass and should experience some significant positive regression. Neither of these teams can run the ball well but if the Rams are poised to show a more balanced offense, this is the game to do it. The Seahawks allow an NFL-worst 152 rushing yards per game thus far. Los Angeles has faced some of the better run defenses in the league to this point– Tampa, Indy, Chicago– Seattle won’t present the same level of difficulty.
LAR is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. Sean McVay and the vaunted Rams got whacked last week and the last thing they want (or need) is to go down 2 games to the red-hot Cardinals. I’m on the Rams to get a win and cover on Thursday night.
*CFB(1u): Houston/Tulane OVER 59.5(-110)–Thurs. 6:30 PM CT
Tulane might be 1-4 on the season, but I think they are a live dog in this one against an overvalued Houston team. The Green Wave played Oklahoma to a 1 possession game to start the season despite being distracted by Hurricane Ida. Things have gone a bit haywire since then; last week, for example, they got down 17-0 to East Carolina in the first quarter and simply couldn’t make up that margin. The defense has failed them up to this point, giving up 61 to Ole Miss and 52 to the aforementioned East Carolina. Houston is led by offensive-minded HC Dana Holgerson, and his Cougars are coming off an impressive 45 point performance at Tulsa. Even if Tulane makes marginal improvement defensively, they are almost guaranteed to allow the Cougars into the 30-35 point range. However, where I feel great about this Over is with the Tulane offense. Michael Pratt is still a young QB who’s prone to mistakes, but he has proven to be capable of leading an explosive offense. He benefits from having 2-3 explosive RB’s to work with as well as an array of reliable WR’s. The 52-29 final might not make this obvious, but I believe the Green Wave found something in the second half last week in Greenville. Houston has only faced 1 solid offense this season(Texas Tech), and they allowed 38 points. Tulane plays with more tempo than any team Houston has faced this season; combined with Tulane’s desperation, I expect to see a solid offensive output from the Green Wave. Dana Holgerson is absolutely willing to match the up-tempo nature from the Green Wave, so I think each of these teams will have plenty of chances to put a dent in the scoreboard. Over is the play.
ST LOUIS, MISSOURI - OCTOBER 12: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers in the first inning of game two of the National League Championship Series against the Washington Nationals at Busch Stadium on October 12, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Dodgers F5 UNDER 4(-125)–7:10 PM CT
The Cardinals totally reversed course in the month of September, winning 17 games in a row to squeeze their way into the postseason. As a reward for that valiant effort, they’ll now get to face one of the best pitchers in baseball and the defending World Series champion in a one game play-in. Unlike what we saw from Gerrit Cole last night, I believe Max Scherzer lives for big games like this. He won a WS with the Nationals just 2 seasons ago, and if his 0.86 WHIP over 179.1 IP this season is any tell, he’s set up well for a good start tonight. He faced St. Louis twice this season, allowing just 1 ER in 14 innings that included 22 K’s. I know this Cardinals offense found their groove over the final month of the season, but aside from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, it’s hard for me to trust any of their bats matching up with Scherzer. On the other side, Adam Wainwright has seemed to find a late-career renaissance; in his 40-year old season, the righty posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 32 starts this season. Typically, it’s best to back Wainwright when he’s pitching at home, but his road numbers this season were actually pretty respectable in 2021(3.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The Dodgers lineup was only slightly above average down the stretch of the season; while they can erupt at any moment, I believe Wainwright can do his part and keep the Cards in this game. This F5 total is bouncing around between 3.5 and 4; even with some juice, I believe the F5 Under is worth a play at 4. I expect a 2-1 or 2-0 Dodgers advantage after 5 innings.
