LET THE GAMES BEGIN!! We have a good one to kick off the postseason! See my plus money leans and props for the game below. We finished the MLB regular season 196-169 (54%) and up 122 units!! Join now atSPORTS PICK HUB or get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The playoffs start tonight and the best rivalry in baseball will kick it off. The New York Yankees will start their ace righty Gerrit Cole. He owns a 1.62 HR/9, 1.38 WHIP and 3.83 FIP in September. In his last 3 starts, Cole has given up 5 homeruns and 15 earned runs over 17.2 innings. including 3 runs from Boston in his start on 9/24. He has posted a 1.50 WHIP, 4.53 FIP, 2 HR/9 in 22 innings pitched against Boston this season. The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Nate Eovaldi. He comes in posting a 0.84 HR/9 rate, 1.28 WHIP and 2.67 FIP in September. In his last 3 starts, Eovaldi has given up 1 homerun and 10 runs in 13.2 innings , with the majority coming from the Yankees in his start on 9/24. Versus the Yankees this season, he owns a 1.24 WHIP, 3.61 FIP and 1.3 HR/9 in 34 innings pitched. Boston has hit to a .325 wOBA (13th) and has scored 26 runs (21st) in the past week. In the past month vs righties at home, the Red Sox own a 2nd best .387 wOBA and wRC+ 138 and rank 10th in runs scored with 50 in 281 at bats. On the other side, the Yankees own a .278 wOBA (27th) and have scored 24 runs (23rd) during the past 7 days and have hit to a .323 wOBA (13th), scoring 41 runs (18th) in 286 at bats in the past month against righties on the road. Everyone is on the Yankees, but based on these stats I favor the value (Red Sox) early but limited to that as I don’t trust their bullpen. So I lean taking Boston F5 +105
Rafael Devers has a .428 wOBA and 3 HR in past week and 3 homeruns off of Gerrit Cole in 21 AB. Take Over 0.5 homeruns for Devers +322
Kiki Hernandez owns a .595 wOBA, .455 batting average, 0 strikeouts, 2 doubles and 1 homerun in 11 AB versus Gerrit Cole. Take Over 1.5 total bases for Hernandez +107
Anthony Rizzo has a .620 wOBA, .556 BA, 1 strikeout, 2 doubles on 5 hits in 9 AB vs Nate Eovaldi. Take Over 1.5 total bases for Rizzo +108
We have a great show for you today! Kiev is on vacation and goes solo to bring you our betting information and fantasy football for this week! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 5 and NFL week 4 with some massive upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 6 and NFL Week 5. Next, Kiev gives out a nice College Football FREE PLAY for week 6! Then, Kiev gets into Fantasy Football week 5 info. We talk about key injuries and waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, Kiev give out his nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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Some people don’t care what the sports betting market does, and some people do. If you don’t want to be influenced by the market, this article is not for you. For those who like the information gained from the market, I gathered some of what I think is interesting. In this article, I created a rudimentary chart of what info is available about the very efficient NFL market to answer some personal questions (numbers courteous of Football:All (wagertalk.com)).
My main question is… With all these states legalizing sports betting, are these numbers about the number of tickets and percentage of money being diluted? I hear of successful bettors getting limited (bucket list item of mine) and the consolidation of books happening very quickly. It makes me wonder about the symbiotic relationship between the “sharps” who are able to bet because the books value their information to adjust their lines. Long story short, the money is still sharp. Here’s a chart I created for the Week 4 spread information… We can see where the most popular side was compared to the amount of money as percentages. Hopefully one can understand my gibberish.
Spread High. Tix%
Team
Tickets%
Spread Result
Money%
$ Diff. Correct
Line Move Margin
Move Correct?
1
KC
79%
COVER
76%
N
-0.5
Y
2
TB
77%
loss
54%
Y
-1
N
3
SEA
77%
COVER
77%
Y
1
Y
4
GB
66%
COVER
51%
N
0.5
N
5
DET
65%
loss
57%
Y
3
N
6
CIN
64%
loss
54%
Y
-1
N
7
LAR
62%
loss
51%
Y
2.5
Y
8
DAL
61%
COVER
54%
N
0.5
N
9
TEN
61%
loss
68%
N
0.5
Y
10
MIA
60%
loss
54%
Y
0
P
11
LAC
59%
COVER
59%
N
0
P
12
BAL
58%
COVER
59%
Y
2
N
13
WAS
57%
COVER
59%
Y
-1
Y
14
NYG
54%
COVER
61%
Y
0.5
N
15
HOU
54%
loss
53%
Y
-2
Y
16
CLE
52%
COVER
61%
Y
1
N
LINE MOVE=TEAM COVER
$ Correct?
11W 5L
6W 8L
I also added in, for curiosity purposes… When you see a spread move towards in a team’s favor or against that team, generally, is that indicative of that team covering the spread? While it’s more complicated than it seems, from a one week sample? Not really.
For example, GB went from a -6.5 to a -6 favorite. In that case, the money came in on PIT. So the line moved towards PIT, but GB covered easily. So you can’t really predict an outcome based on a line move. And the money % difference was wrong on that game.
The chart shows us that where the lines had moved, that went 6-8 on the week, 2 lines did not move. But, what we also see in the chart, is that where the % of money differed from the % of tickets, that went 11-5. Meaning, the money leaned towards the correct result of the game. What’s the difference? My opinion, sometimes the public can move a line. Sometimes, one respected bettor could move a line, one book moves and the rest follow. That’s hard to predict. Interesting?
Now I’ve heard, and I could be wrong, that there’s 3 types of bettors. Numbers guys (meaning modelers essentially), steam chasers, and just fans of the game. What this info tells us is that steam chasing moving lines is the wrong way to go. Steam chasing the money, well, this week it looks like something worth following.
To be honest, I don’t necessarily follow the money myself every game I want to play. However, when I see all of the tickets, all of the money, or a huge disparity between tickets and money- it has swung me on some big plays. Thus, I think following the money is worth looking at.
Here I spent some time looking at the totals market, creating a similar chart…
Total High. Tix%
Teams
Tickets%
Total Result
Money%
$ Diff. Correct?
Total Move
Move Correct Direction
1
ARI/ LAR
o82%
OVER
o84%
Y
1
Y
2
SEA/ SF
o75%
under
o56%
Y
2.5
N
3
JAX/ CIN
o73%
under
o58%
Y
0
P
4
LAC/ LVR
o69%
under
o60%
Y
-1
Y
5
IND/ MIA
u68%
OVER
u87%
N
-3.5
N
6
TEN/ NYJ
u66%
OVER
u59%
Y
-4
Y
7
WAS/ ATL
u64%
OVER
u54%
Y
-2
N
8
KC/ PHI
o64%
OVER
o53%
N
-0.5
N
9
CLE/ MIN
o64%
under
o61%
Y
1.5
N
10
TB/ NE
u62%
under
u55%
N
-1.5
Y
11
PIT/ GB
o61%
under
o79%
N
-3
Y
12
HOU/ BUF
u60%
under
u84%
Y
-0.5
Y
13
CAR/ DAL
u57%
OVER
u56%
Y
1.5
Y
14
DET/ CHI
u54%
under
o50%
N
-4
Y
15
BAL/ DEN
o52%
under
o57%
N
0
P
16
NYG/ NOR
u52%
OVER
o69%
Y
-4.5
N
LINE MOVE=Correct Direction
$ Correct?
10W 6L
8W 6L
With the totals, it looks like the moves were indeed the right direction for the most part- 8-6, with 2 totals that did not move. The difference between the money and the tickets show that where the money leaned, that went 10-6 on the week. I think that the totals markets are the sharper between the two I have charted. But again, we see where the money difference was. And we see it was, dare I say- more better, ha… So, something worth looking at before making that bet? Maybe… Numbers don’t lie. I know that there’s a lot of guys way better at this than I am. I just know I need to be better about looking at these numbers myself.
In my experience, sometimes looking at the money has put me on a game or taken me off a game. Mostly games I leaned one way or the other, but maybe not confident in my numbers I’m looking at, or what I’m hearing or seeing from outside sources. I want to be better about it on games I might be 50/50, 60/40, maybe even 70/30 about. We’ll take a look later in the season and see how it’s working out in my next NFL Market Recap! I’ll shorten the article next time, promise. Haven’t figured out a way to get my charts to look better on the phone than it does on the computer, sorry about that- working on it.
We’ve finally reached the end of the regular MLB season. It was a long six months, but now we have reached October. Regular Season record was 362-315-23, 53.4% Win Rate and 9.2% ROI. Post-season baseball is typically great drama, and offers some good opportunities to cash some tickets.
If you’ve been following my picks you know that I already own some futures shares. I am most heavily invested in the Brewers followed by the White Sox (And the Mets…oops). Looking at current Post-season odds there is some value on the board to take some shots and try to hedge later if the right chance presents itself.
Here are Current Odds:
To Win AL:
Astros +200, Rays +250, White Sox +300, Yankees +450, Red Sox + 700
Lets be honest here, There is value on almost everyone except the Dodgers. High liability on them has their odds as the lowest even though they have to beat the red hot Cardinals in the wild card game. (I’ll be on The Cardinals at +175ish and the over 7.5 in that game) The Dodgers are gonna march out probably the best three pitcher playoff rotation in Scherzer/Buehler/Urias. That is a scary proposition for anyone in a full series, but in one game against Adam Wainwright, (Last 15 games 10-2 2.50 ERA 0.95 WHIP) I think its a toss up on the game and the value is on fading the futures bets for both teams. The cards are not built for the playoffs on offense or defense, but just destroyed everyone in September so you never know.
The winner would face the team with MLBs best record in the never flinch San Francisco Giants. This team wasn’t supposed to sniff the playoffs, but a bunch of overachieving veteran pieces came together and decided they wanted to compete. How this team just kept on winning I just don’t know. Wait yes I do, they had the 4th best OPS and 2nd best ERA in all of baseball. (Bullpen has a 2.99 ERA – Thats crazy!) Gausman, Webb, Desclafini and Wood will be underdogs every game if they play the Dodgers. They are a tough bet for me due to the potential Dodgers matchup, but they made it happen all year so I could see it in the post-season as well.
The other Wild Card features two titans of the sport in the Yankees and Red Sox. Gerritt Cole will get the ball for the Red Sox, but he has struggled some down the stretch with a 4.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in his last 7 starts. Nathan Eovaldi is Jekyll and Hyde. 3.86 ERA in his last 7 starts and a 1.26 WHIP. He was hammered last time out against the Yankees last Friday for 7 runs. Both these teams are capable of big offensive showings, but both lost season series to the team waiting for them the Rays. Neither staff is great, and while I could see either making it a series, I don’t like them going up against the Rays.
Those Rays are a little scary in that their playoff rotation is going to consist of three guys you never heard of before this year. Shane McLanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. They have been very good though. The way the Rays do things I could see Game 4 featuring an opener or being a straight up bullpen game for them. The offense was 10th in MLB in OPS, so good, but not great. They’ve proven themselves two years in a row now even with an overhaul of the rotation. I think there could be some value here.
The NL 2-3 match-up features the Brewers vs the Braves. The Brewers boast the other big 3 rotation with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. Josh Hader is almost lights out if they get a lead to the 9th, but the loss of Williams as their 8th inning man is huge. When he struggled early in the season so did the Brewers. Getting a lead to the 9th will be key for the Crew. The Brewers are only 20th in OPS, so getting some runs on the board to support those starters will also be key. The Braves are fairly consistent across the board. 8th in ERA. 8th in OPS. The Braves will have Morton, Fried and Anderson to start off the series. All three are good enough to keep them in the game, and the bullpen is solid if not flashy. I like the Brewers in a tight series here.
In the final AL match-up The AL favored Houston Astros take on the White Sox. Greinke is a shadow of his old self, and while some of the young guys have been solid like McCullers, Valdez and Garcia, I don’t see them hanging with the other big rotations. Plus their bullpen outside of Gravemen and Pressly hasnt been great, and I dont trust either of those guys that much. Astros are 2nd in OPS so it would be the bats that get them somewhere in the playoffs. The White Sox bring more excitement on the mound with Lynn, Giolito, Rodon and Cease. Their offense was 7th in OPS, but didnt get fully healthy until they got Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez back near the end of the season. It’s a scary top to bottom lineup. Their bullpen with Kimbrel and Hendriks closing is also solid. The Manager on the South Side knows a little something about winning in October also. White Sox will be my play in this series.
So what do I like? Well I already have shares of the Brewers and White Sox, and honestly I like the matchup for both teams in the first series so either of those would be plays for me for the League at +300. I also like the Rays at +250 in the AL. Same for the World Series grab the Rays at +600 and the Brewers and White Sox at +700. I could see sprinkling in a small amount on a Wild Card longshot if you’re feeling it here also. I am going to split up 2 units on the League bets and 3 units on the World Series bets.
Make sure for bets like these you use some sort of Dutching Tool so you can see what your return will be and invest the correct amount on each team to make these bets the most profitable when one comes in.
I can’t wait! Bring on some post-season baseball!
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Over the weekend, I enjoyed a +7.2u Week 5 in College Football and saw my premium record improve to 26-13-1, +20.38u. I’m 2-2 in the Week 4 NFL Card looking to win tonight’s bet and seal up another winning week. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Chargers -3(-110) vs Raiders–7:15 PM CT
The Raiders have gotten off to a hot 3-0 start, but let’s examine a little deeper. They looked great in a Week 1 win against the Ravens, but their last two wins over the Steelers and Dolphins are starting to look a bit less intriguing. Pittsburgh has exposed themselves as totally inept offensively and has lost 3 straight, and the Dolphins were starting Jacoby Brissett at QB. Point being, this is a step up in class for a Las Vegas team that wasn’t expected to be in the position they’re in. Los Angeles is coming off a great win in Kansas City that saw Justin Herbert toss 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s; the Chargers defense held Patrick Mahomes to a 61% completion rate(well below average for him) and forced 4 Chiefs turnovers. The week before, LAC held a potent Dallas offense to just 20 points. I understand the line being where it’s at considering how good Vegas has looked through 3 weeks, but I’m willing to bet we see some regression from the Raiders tonight. I’ll back Justin Herbert and the Chargers at home tonight.
The Chiefs have started this 2021 season sluggish, losing each of their last 2 games. Last week, they lost at home to the Chargers due to 4 turnovers; Patrick Mahomes looked visibly frustrated during the loss. This team has too much about them to come out flat again this week; lucky for them, they get a perfect “get right” opponent. Philadelphia looked totally wretched in their blowout loss to the Cowboys on Monday night, and now they have to turn around on a short week and host what’s still the best team in the NFL. I’m not that high on Jalen Hurts, and that’s especially true when he’s going to be forced to take some risks if his Eagles want to keep up with the KC offense. The Eagles are still overvalued in the betting markets due to their Week 1 win over Atlanta; they’ve shown exactly who they are over their last 2 games. I could go much deeper on this game, but all of my further explanation will basically fall under the notion that the Chiefs have every reason to come out and dominate this football game. I don’t expect this one to be close.
*NFL(1.5u): Panthers TT UNDER 23.5(-115) @ Cowboys–Noon CT
The Panthers have started the season 3-0, but considering two of those wins came against the Jets and Texans, they are still far from a top-tier team in this league. They had extra time to prepare coming off a Thursday night game, but I think whatever advantage that may have presented them gets wiped out considering they’ll be without star RB Christian McCaffrey. Now, Carolina will almost solely rely on the performance of QB Sam Darnold. I’ve actually backed the Panthers twice this year, but without a truly dynamic back to help Darnold out, the offense totally changes. Dallas’s defense isn’t very good, but they are shielded by what is one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Cowboys are coming off a short week, and frankly, I don’t expect them to come out full throttle offensively; rather, I expect a slower-paced Cowboys attack. This would limit the Panthers’ possessions and force Darnold to execute at a high level on the road. Because he’s yet to prove he’s capable of doing so throughout his career, I feel comfortable taking the Panthers TT UNDER at a relatively high number.
*NFL(1u): Colts TT UNDER 20.5(-115) @ Dolphins–Noon CT
Colts HC Frank Reich is a very crafty play-caller who I’ve been able to trust in years past, but this current Colts offense has proven to be incapable so far. Through 3 games, they’ve averaged less than 19 PPG, which includes a mere 16 point output against a vulnerable Tennessee defense last week. Miami has looked rattled in their past 2 games; they were completely manhandled by the Bills in Week 2 and let last week’s game in Las Vegas slip away. Brian Flores has had success in Miami by slowing the game down and relying on his defense. QB Jacoby Brissett looked a lot better in Week 3 than he did coming in relief for Tua in Week 2, so I’d expect the Dolphins offense to be pretty efficient back at home this week. This would limit the Colts’ possessions, and with the mistake-prone Carson Wentz leading the offense, I don’t think Indy will find their answers on offense this week. Maybe the Colts find an offensive identity at some point this season, but this matchup doesn’t set up well for them to do so.
*NFL 2 Team Teaser(1u): Cardinals/Rams OVER 48.5 AND Buccaneers -1 @ Patriots(-110)–3:05 PM CT
I wouldn’t talk you out of playing the Cards/Rams OVER at the posted number, but by teasing it down 6 points, we’re getting much better value(obviously). The Rams have looked about as sharp as any offense in the league through 3 weeks, and I don’t expect the Cardinals defense to provide much resistance. The Arizona D has shown to be spotty in the past, and Sean McVay has tons of weapons at his disposal. That said, Kyler Murray is as dynamic a QB as you’ll find, and the Rams defense hasn’t been tasked with facing a dual-threat QB yet this season. Not only is Kyler Murray great with his legs, but he is an exceptional passer. I expect these teams to trade points at a high rate for 60 minutes and for this game to sail into the 52-55 range(at least). As for the Bucs portion of this teaser, I have a hard time seeing them losing this game to a clearly inferior Patriots team. Bill Belichick knows Tom Brady as well as anybody, but he’s still in the “growing pains” stage with rookie QB Mac Jones. Even if the Patriots defense brings their A effort, I don’t see the Pats offense being able to move the ball very well, especially considering the Bucs’ success at stopping the run. This could be closer than the -7 line indicates, but Brady will get the best of his former team tonight in Foxborough.
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Carolina vs Dallas -4.5 O/U 50
I must say that the Dallas Cowboys have definitely improved on both sides of the ball. You have to wonder where this Dan Quinn defense was during his tenure at the Falcons. The Cowboys have had a pretty hard schedule so far and they are 3-0 ATS but they have also been beneficiaries in the turnover game being a huge +5 in turnover ratio and I am not sure that is sustainable in a Mike McCarthy coached team. I also have to point out the fact that their Chargers victory seemed very one sided to me and I don’t know if they deserved that win. Dallas’s defense is still very suspect in yards per play allowing a 3rd worst at allowing 6.7 yards per play. Carolina’s defense has been fantastic. The Panthers are number 1 in pressure rate as well as Pass and Rush EPA. Now Carolina has had a few offensive struggles, but Sam Darnold looks a lot more comfortable under Matt Rhule’s system ranking 6th in QBR which has helped the Panthers achieve a huge +10.2 points in ATS margin further showing that the market hasn’t caught up with them as of yet. The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the rest factor. Dallas is facing the Panthers on a short week while the Panthers have 10 days to prepare for this team. I know that they will be missing Christian McCaffrey but Chuba Hubbard and Royce Freeman should fit right in here. I am going to take the Panthers to cover the spread and possibly win outright n Dallas.
Carolina +4.5 – 2 stars and season that money-line
Arizona vs LA Rams -4.5 O/U 55
Now this should be a great game at So-Fi Stadium with 2 undefeated teams squaring off. Both teams are 2-1 ATS. Now the Rams took the Cardinals out of the playoffs last year and I am sure that it is baked into their minds that this is the hurdle that they must overcome in order to take a big step forward. The Cardinals have been solid on both sides of the ball ranking 4th in overall DVOA. Their biggest weakness is against the run but the Rams are a weak 30th in rushing yards per attempt at 3.3 which softens the blow of that matchup. The Rams rank 3rd in overall DVOA and they seem to move the ball quite well with all of those offensive weapons but this is a let down spot for them being that they just beat the Super Bowl champs and I could see them struggle a bit to contain that AZ pass rush with JJ Watt and Chandler Jones coming after Matt the Statue Stafford. My power ratings have the spread at around 4.25 if you don’t factor in the let down, but I think that the Cardinals get it done if they can stop the run this week like they did vs the Titans and if Kyler Murray can break contain and get some big chunks of yards. My Algorithm has the Rams winning 28.5 to 26 which covers a three point spread, and much of that is because Arizona has allowed less yards on defense.
Cardinals +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Refuse to lose teasers are 2-1 so far this season: 6pt. Tease the Saints down to -2 with the Buccaneers down to -1 – 2 stars
