74% of the money on NYG +7 in this one. I have to disagree even though I understand New Orleans has not only their Center, but their backup Center out as well. LT Armstead out is a big loss but I still have the NOR getting just one point more than what I have this game. I think they can cover. I realize OL losses can be devastating to an offense but in the Saints home opener, I can’t see the Giants coming in and pulling this one off. Fading a team coming home off a road trip is one thing, but riding NYG with 2/3 of their starting WR corps out, and their MLB Martinez (QB of the defense), oof.
This line seems trappy, recency bias with the Saints exerting their dominance last week against NE… Clearly this Saints Defense is something to contend with. Giants have OG cluster injuries on top of an already struggling O-line. I liked the Giants coming in to the season, but with their injury woes… I have to take a flier on NOR-7 in this one… Simply put, I can’t see Giants putting up more than the Saints in this one and New Orleans boasts one of the best home fields in the NFL. Coaching matchup favoring Payton… Give me the Saints-7!
Sunday card has the NFL Non Conf. Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the AFC Game of the Month, Sunday night Football and MLB Last Home game Undefeated System play. NFL Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play is on the NY. Jets + 6 at 1:00 eastern. You my have to pinch your nose here. However, the Jets fit a nice subset to a system that play on dogs of 5 or more in non Division games that are off back to back straight up and spread losses if they were shut out in their last game. The Titans could come flat here as they have failed to cover 20 of 26 on the road vs a team under .500 and a lousy 1-4 ats as a road favorite also failing to cover 10 of 13 vs the AFC East. The Jets have covered 8 of 10 in the series. Take the Points as the Jets get the cover. On Sunday an Executive level NFL TIER 1 Total, headlines along With the 100% Non Conf. Game of the Year and the 40-8 AFC Game of the Month. There is also Sunday night Football and our Exclusive Last home game play of the year in MLB from a perfect Game 162 specific System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as the NFL Stays hot. For the Comp play. Take the 6 points wit the Jets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Nov 3, 2018; Columbus, OH, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive lineman Ben Stille (95) celebrates after a fourth down stop against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the first quarter at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
ULL Ragin’ Cajuns at SALA Jaguars Total 53
ULL dealing with RB, WR, and cluster OL injuries. Total pushed up to 53 from open at 51. SALA defense better than hoped so far (18th Scoring DEF), ULL allowing 5.9 YPP but coming into conference play I expect them to tighten up. Jaguars 163rd OFF YPG.
ULL/ SALA U53 (-112) 2.24u
NW Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers (1H -6) Total 51
Total moved up from 49 open to 51, 52 at sharp Pinnacle book. I don’t agree with this one being a horse race with NW struggling offense (127th YPG). Yes they scored 21 against Michigan ST earlier this season but that was in garbage time. NEB 25th scoring DEF, underrated in my mind. Nebraska can score coming in 33rd OFF YPG, but defense is still NW strength coming in 46th scoring DEF. In the two games NW has faced I have power rated in the top 100, their 1H margin AVG -18.5. I’ll hedge the total with NEB 1H -6 in case Nebraska Offense takes off, but again I think both can hit.
NEB 1H -6 (-120) 1.2u/ NEB UN 51 (-105) 1.05u
Fresno ST Bulldogs (1H -6) at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Recency bias but we’ve seen Fresno come out strong against Oregon and UCLA. In Hawaii they could be sleepwalking going into their BYE week versus an inferior foe but we know this Offense can score. I don’t see Fresno Coach Kalen DeBoer letting this squad come out flat in paradise and clearly wants to be in the conversation of being one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country. Hawaii’s QB struggles with accuracy and Fresno’s defense should take advantage in case their knicked up QB doesn’t come out strong.
Fresno 1H -6 (-120) 1.2u
Follow more of my plays at Action Network App (kris_lundborg). I wanted to give theoddsbreakers.com members 30 free plays, which aren’t always my top tier plays but so far 15-12. Includes my worst MLB season in years… Check back soon as I am setting up a new Patreon for my very best plays released much earlier in the week!
Wagers: $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double 0.10 Superfecta / $ 1 Super Hi 5 Leg 1 of the $1 Golden Hour Late Pick 4
Field:
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
ML Odds
1
TIZAMAGICIAN
F. Prat
R. Mandella
4-1
2
MIDCOURT
E. Maldonado
J. Shirreffs
12-1
3
EXPRESS TRAIN
J. Hernandez
J. Shirreffs
4-1
4
STILLETO BOY
K. Desormeaux
E. Moger Jr.
20-1
5
MEDINA SPIRIT
J. Velazquez
B. Baffert
5-2
6
AZUL COAST
A. Cedillo
B. Baffert
12-1
7
TRIPOLI
J. Pereira
J. Sadler
3-1
8
IDOL
J. Bravo
R. Baltas
5-1
Horse Preview:
TIZAMAGICIAN is 19-5-8-0 in his career and 7-3-3-0 in 2021. This 4-year-old colt has been impressive in 2021 finishing in the money in six of his seven starts. He’s coming into this race off a 2nd place finish in the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes where he lost to fellow entrant TRIPOLI. This race was run at the same distance and on the same surface. An interesting note is that TRIPOLI who beat TIZAMAGICIAN is listed as a 4-1 on the morning line odds while TRIPOLI is listed at 5-1. He’s won 2 G3 Stakes this year and was a runner up in G2 Stakes. In his last out at Santa Anita he ran in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap finishing 5th, his worst finish of this year. In that race, finished behind fellow entrants IDOL (1st place) and EXPRESS TRAIN (2nd place).
MIDCOURT is a gelding who’s 17-6-3-4 in his career and 1-1-0-0 in 2021. This 6-year-old has only raced once this year and that came back in June at Santa Anita where he won an Allowance Race running a 112-speed figure. He raced in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes last year and finished 3rd. MIDCOURT has certainly had an impressive career with over $600,000 in career earnings. My only concern in this race is his limited starts this year along with his age.
EXPRESS TRAIN is 13-4-4-2 in his career and 6-2-1-2 in 2021. Thus 4-year-old colt also was an entrant in the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes his last out where he ran 6th. However, that race was the only race that he’s finished outside the money this year. In his other races this year, he won the G2 San Diego Handicap and G2 San Pasqual Stakes. He also had respectable showing in the two G1 Stakes he entered, finishing 3rd in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes and 2nd in the Santa Anita Handicap. This horse is very familiar with Santa Anita and has raced well at this track in the past.
STILLETO BOY is 9-2-2-3 in his career and 8-2-1-3 in 2021. This 3-year-old colt hasn’t had much success in his previous stakes races he’s entered, besides winning the Iowa Derby, so I don’t understand this move at all. In the only Graded Stakes he’s entered, he finished 5th in the G3 La Jolla Handicap. Given the class of horses here, I don’t see him being a factor at all. For me, this horse is a complete toss in this race.
MEDINA SPIRIT is 8-4-3-1 in his career and 7-3-3-1 in 2021. This 3-year-old colt has been at the center of the racing world since winning the Kentucky Derby and testing positive for a banned substance. In his last out, he won the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. He was coming off a three-month layoff going into that race after finishing third in the Preakness. He’s the deserved favorite in this race but should face some tough competition.
AZUL COAST is 8-3-1-1 in his career and 2-1-0-1 in 2021. This be the second G1 Stakes that he has entered in. His first coming last year in the G1 RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby, where he finished 7th. In his most recent start, he won an AOC at Del Mar where he ran a 115-speed figure. This is an interesting horse because he has looked better in his last two outs but I’m still not sure that he’ll be competitive here.
TRIPOLI is 14-4-3-3 in his career and 6-3-1-1 in 2021. This 4-year-old colt beat out TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN in his last start to win the G1 TVG Pacific Classic Stakes. Prior to that race, he finished second in the G2 San Diego Handicap where he lost to EXPRESS TRAIN. This horse will definitely be a factor in this race and will be given an opportunity to prove himself against MEDINA SPIRIT.
IDOL is 6-3-2-1 in his career and 2-1-0-1 in 2021. The big story for this horse is that he’s coming off a seven-month layoff, running his last race back in March. In his last race, he won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap defeating TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN. His only other start this year was in the G2 San Pasqual Stakes where TIZAMAGICIAN and EXPRESS TRAIN beat him out for 1st and 2nd.
Picks:
WIN: (7) TRIPOLI
TRIFECTA BOX: 5,7/ 1,3,5,7
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 Move, the BIG 12 Game Of The Year, a 5* High noon Total, a Late Platinum Supreme and 2 more Top plays. There is also Last weekend Specific MLB power System Plays and Soccer– College Preview Below.
The College Football preview at 2:30 eastern. Expect a lower scoring game here as Cincy has a tremendous defense and the Irish have allowed under 14 in back to back games. Cincy will look to end the long Notre Dame win streak and are just the team to do it after going 9-1 last year and opening up 3-0 this year. They are 8 of 11 under vs a winning team and 7 of 10 off a spread win. Notre Dame at 4-0 will be tough and they are 5 of 5 under as a home dog and 4 of 5 vs a winning team as well as 26 of 36 after scoring 40 or more. In what looks like one of the best games of the day we will back the under and give a light lean to the win for Cincy who has been powerful in the second halves this year. On Saturday we have a Huge CFB Card up with the BIG 12 Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1, 5* High noon Total, 5* 100% Blowout and a big Non Conference Play. There is October specific MLB systems and Soccer. Dont miss out. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out. For the College Comp plays. Look for Notre Dame and Cincy to go under in a close game with Cincy getting the win. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
*EPL: Leeds to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (+105) vs Watford
Leeds are a MUCH better team than the 0-3-3 record suggests. They have actually struggled to score goals this season which is very unlike Leeds who tactically never stop doing everything in their power to score, no matter what the scoreline is. This tactic makes them very vulnerable defensively but Watford are just as vulnerable, not having kept a Premier League clean sheet yet this season. Leeds are coming off of an underserved 2-1 loss to a very strong West Ham side, and welcoming Watford to Ellen road is a game that they are easily favourites for. Ellen road is also a very tough place to play for any visiting squad. Leeds fans are yet to see a home win this season, so the atmosphere will be outstanding and difficult for an away side to manage. I have no doubt that their will be over 1.5 goals in this match, and I honestly expect Leeds to score at least three and hand Premier League newcomers, Watford a big defeat.
*EPL: Manchester United to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-130) vs Everton
I hit on a Manchester United pick this week, and my reasoning for this pick will be along the same lines as the one midweek. With Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City in such good form, United need to win this game with the horrifying stretch of games they have coming up. Their last Premier League game was a disappointing loss to Aston Villa, but that was a Villa team in a different spot then Everton are in right now. All but one of Manchester United’s wins this season have been over 1.5 goals, and ALL of Everton’s games this season have gone over 1.5 goals. Everton are a good team with a good squad, but one thing they lack is significant depth. Their attack heavily relies on Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, two players who will miss the contest due to injury. The attacking threat for Everton won’t be as convincing without these two players, and it will be tremendously difficult to prevent United’s overwhelming attack from scoring goals in this one. Expect United to win this one and pile some goals in against Everton.
Sunday October 3rd Picks
*EPL: Leicester City to Win (+130) @ Crystal Palace
Despite only having six points from six games, Crystal Palace have actually impressed in the past couple games with a BIG 3-0 win vs Spurs and deserved draws against very in-from sides in Brighton and West Ham. For this reason, I think the line is deservedly giving Crystal Palace a bit too much respect here. As I said, they only have six points in six games this season, and Leicester are in desperate need of a win for a team that has top four aspirations. Leicester have the more established and experienced squad, and they will feel that this is a huge opportunity to snatch three points and get their season started. The Foxes (Leicester) have scored in all Premier League games but one, which was a 1-0 loss against Manchester City. While Palace have only kept two clean sheets and scored six goals this season. So yes, Crystal Palace have looked good recently, but they also look vulnerable and Leicester is too good of a team to give Palace this much respect. Take this pick.
*EPL: Manchester City Double Chance & Under 4.5 Goals (-138) @ Liverpool
The game of the weekend comes on Sunday as City visit Anfield in a match that any football fan cannot miss. I want to start by explaining the reasoning of the under 4.5 goals as we all know both teams are incredible on the attacking end. But, Manchester City have only conceded ONE goal this season and are finally starting to look like that real force we’ve grown to see in recent years. Liverpool have only conceded four goals and remain the only unbeaten team left in the Premier League. I know it’s a small sample size but Liverpool have only played one of the traditional “top six” sides this season, which ended in a 1-1 draw against Chelsea. While Manchester City have played both Chelsea and Tottenham in games that ended both 1-0. The point is, when playing difficult opposition, these two managers are so tactically talented that the games almost always end in low scoring affair.
Now, for the why I picked Man City to win or draw. Well, last time at Anfield, City actually beat Liverpool 4-1. Liverpool have actually only won, one in the last six Premier League meetings between these two sides (all but one ending in under 4.5 goals). This Manchester City team are just too good tactically to break down. Pep has them with the ball for majority of the game and when they do lose it, the constant pressure to win it back is too tough to beat. Liverpool are a great counter-attacking team and in theory could benefit from trying to hit City on the counter… but it won’t be enough. I could easily see a 1-1 draw, and I definitely expect City to take at least a point from this one.
I can’t emphasize this enough- Vegas NEEDS to win this weekend after losing BIG TIME in Week 3. Don’t get caught betting a side that everyone is throwing money on, yet the number isn’t moving – that usually means the books know something and the opposite side hits more often than not. Pay attention to line moves and where the bets are– it matters.
I’m sure you’ve heard by now, but in case you haven’t… we went up 26 units in Week 3, going 8-7 for +6 units in single NFL picks and 7-0 for +20 units in teasers– let’s goooo!!! Here are my favorite free plays for Week 4!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units
Jets +7 (-115), 1.5 units: Whoa whoa whoa, I’m taking the JETS on Sunday? Correct! Next to my NY Giants that’s probably one of the harder bets to make in all of professional sports, but here we are. Before you think I’m crazy (and I may be), let me explain. The Jets are coming off a hugely embarrassing loss in Denver, where they just could not move the ball against an elite Broncos defense at altitude. Fine, they’re not the first team to get stifled in the Mile-High City. Zach Wilson has also struggled, a lot. After showing some real signs of stardom in Week 1 in a tight contest against Carolina, the rookie QB has fell off a cliff. Wilson already has 7 INTs and he’s barely eclipsed 600 yards in 3 games. While that’s not exactly the kind of production you’d want from a top draft pick, this is the NFL and a learning curve should be expected. One thing’s for sure, the Jets won’t face the level of defense they did last week. The Titans are a good team, but we don’t think they’re great. Behind the able legs of Derrick Henry and disciplined coaching from Mike Vrabel, the Titans are a smash-mouth, wear-you-down team that should easily run away with the AFC South this year (particularly thanks to the Colts’ failures). In their first two games against exceptional QBs, Tennessee’s defense allowed 68 points and 813 yards. Again, that was only in TWO games. Thanks to a comeback victory against Seattle in Week 2 (and 500+ yards of their own), the Titans avoided an agonizing 0-2 start and proceeded to whack their AFC South rival in Week 3. Now, likely feeling high and confident once again, Tennessee travels to East Rutherford and looks to get an easy win. Not so fast, my friends.
The Jets have a lot to improve on but, in my opinion, they still have a coach that’s going to work. Robert Saleh has a way of effecting his players that’s rare, at least according to the stories of San Francisco defenders in years past. Saleh is a motivational tough guy that looks like he could get out there and play defensive lineman right now. The Jets have been on the road for 2/3 games of this early season and in their only home game, they faced a Patriots squad looking to avoid an 0-2 start. The Titans defense is ranked in the bottom five in both yards allowed per play and the Jets, on the other hand, are surprisingly top 10 in a few important defensive categories, including yards allowed and passing yards allowed per game. I think Coach Saleh will get his team UP for this game, and while the Titans should win, they should give Zach Wilson more room and more lanes to make completions and gain some needed confidence. Believe it or not, the lowly Jets are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I’m on New York!
Seahawks +3 (-125), 2.50 units: Something’s going on in Seattle and it’s hard to pinpoint. Their defense looks like it needs a ton of work, we’re used to that by now, and they absolutely cannot score points in the second half of games. In Week 1, they only scored a single touchdown in the final 30 minutes. In Week 2, including OT, they scored a total of 6 points in the second half. And in Week 3, they didn’t score at all. Even more confusing is the play of Russel Wilson, which is not on par with Seattle’s productivity. As usual, Russel is starting the year out strong. With a QB rating of 133.6, Wilson has a 73.3% completion rate and has thrown for 895 yards, 7 TDs, and no INTs in 3 games. But Russ needs help. Bad offensive line play and a lukewarm rushing attack aren’t helping. I can see Pete Carrol and the Seattle coaches drawing up some creativity in their playbook this week to throw off the home team Niners. They need a jolt of some kind.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers have come into 2021 with a ton of confidence. Plagued by injuries in 2020, a rejuvenated Niners team has big hopes this year and they came out on fire. Against the Lions in the season opener, it felt like they were “playing with their food,” clobbering Detroit early only to let them come back and hang in the game (and cover their line at +8.5). A Week 2 win over a solid Eagles team, at Philly, wasn’t a bad look either. Last Sunday night Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got the best out of San Francisco, holding off a second half comeback by Jimmy G and company. Garoppolo is playing with plenty of confidence himself, distancing himself from rookie Trey Lance, who many believe can be a franchise QB and exceptional talent when his time comes. All that said, it’s hard to get a firm handle on the Niners. Their defense has been okay; they’ve allowed nearly 400 yards per game against mostly mediocre offenses so far. And their offense, although always innovative and full of talent, doesn’t ever seem to take over games. The Niners will welcome the Seahawks into Levi Stadium Sunday and while they should be favored, injuries at RB still plague their offense and now George Kittle, arguably their most important offensive weapon, may not play.
The Seahawks need to win. They’re 1-2 in the NFC West, a division where you don’t want to fall too far behind. The Rams and Cardinals are both 3-0 and the Niners would go 3-1 if they win Sunday, separating themselves from Seattle even further. Divisional games always have a different feel, and if you’re giving me 3 points with Russel Wilson in a game that feels like a “must win,” I’m going to take it. There’s a reason this line is so juiced– the books think the Hawks will keep it close, too. Take Seattle and don’t think twice about it.
Wk 5 CFB PICK
Washington at Oregon St 9 pm
PICK: Oregon St (-118) 1.5 units
QB advantage for Oregon St here and I like the Beavers at home
WAS allowing 6.1 ypc on the road
OSU averaging 474 yards per game
OSU +4 in turnover margin/WAS is -2
WAS QB Morris completing just 57% of his passes 4 TD/5 INT
OSU QB Noland completing 72% of his passes 9 TD/2 INT
OSU 535 Total Yards in 45-27 win at USC last week
OSU defense allowing just 3 ypc and 58% completion rate
WAS already has a loss to Montana and allowed over 450 yards to Cal last week
Oregon State’s offense is rolling, I like them to win this
WAS 1-7 ATS last 8 as road dog
WAS 5-11 ATS last 16 road games
OSU 4-1 ATS last 5 as home favorite
As the MLB regular season comes to an end, we have been more selective with our plays but we found a barking dog here! We are 17-7 in our last 24 MLB dog plays, 4-0 in our last 4 plays and 41-28 (59%) our last 69 MLB, CFB, NFL plays. This is one of 2 premium plays for tonight and have a loaded slate for the weekend. Join now at SPORTS PICK HUB !!
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With the postseason looming, the Tampa Bay Rays head to New York to take on their divisional rival Yankees at Yankees Stadium tonight. The Rays have clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs while the Yankees are leading the wildcard race by 2 games with the Mariners, Red Sox and Blue Jays in the mix. Some could say the Rays have nothing to play for and should rest their players. However, the opportunity to knock out their rivals out of the playoffs would certainly be enjoyable for Tampa. Here are some quotes from Rays players that prove they wont lay down this weekend.
“There’s going to be pressure on them,” Rays veteran centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier said. “You get a team rival like us and the history — we haven’t played them in a while — and I’m just looking forward to a fun-filled, playoff-atmosphere weekend to really get our juices flowing before the real thing starts.“… They’re going to throw their absolute best at us. Every move possible, their lineup, their pitching, they’re going to do everything. It’s going to be Game 7 to them the whole weekend. I love that atmosphere, and it feels good to be in the driver’s seat when you’re talking about our situation compared to theirs. It’s going to be a heck of a weekend.”
“This is another good Yankees team that we could see in the postseason, so we’re not going to slack off or take any of these games off,” Rays second baseman Brandon Lowe said. “We’re going to come out, and we’re going to try to win all three.”
Now, lets dig into some stats. Rookie lefty Shane McClanahan will take the mound for the Rays. He has been great lately posting a 2.91 FIP in the second half of the season and owns a 3.35 xFIP on the road this season. On the other side, the Yankees will turn to lefty Nester Cortes Jr who has regressed since the All-Star break and owns a 4.53 FIP compared to his 1st half FIP of 1.91. Tampa Bay has struggled against lefties if you look at the stats for the full season but they own the 2nd best wOBA (.360) in the past 2 months. The Rays are not going to let up against the Yankees, no chance. Good value here.
Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throws during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Michigan State, Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
In addition to these 7 free plays, I have 6 plays up for my premium members in CFB this weekend. My premium plays have hit at a 66% clip and netted my members +16.35u in just over a month. If you’d like to become a premium member for just $50/month, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT
This is a premium play that I decided to also include on my free play card. Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive of a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points(Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year). The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.
*CFB(1u): Tulane/East Carolina OVER 64.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I’ve had a hard time hitting my Over plays so far this season, but this one was just too good to lay off. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is now in his 4th year and has consistently demonstrated the ability to march the ball down the field. Tulane can get some pressure on the QB, but they are what I’d consider a “boom-or-bust” defense. In other words, if they don’t get pressure on the quarterback, they’re likely to get carved up. Given that this Pirates offense is riddled with experience, I expect them to be up for the challenge. That being said, I’m very high on what the Green Wave can do offensively. Sophomore QB Michael Pratt has tons of upside, and he’s surrounded by a solid 1-2 punch at WR as well as a good set of WR’s and TE’s. To put it simply, I’m anything but scared of the East Carolina defense. Both teams are in the top half of the country in plays/game, so pace is on our side. I really like what each of these offenses can do, and I am expecting a back-and-forth shootout in Greenville.
*CFB(1u): Oregon/Stanford UNDER 57.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oregon enters this game as just 8 point favorites, and I think that’s warranted. Mario Cristobal has developed a reputation of failing to cover large spreads, specifically in conference play. Oregon is a run-first team, and given that QB Anthony Brown has completed just 57% of his passes this season, it’s reasonable to assume the Ducks offense sputters here in their first road conference game. Stanford QB Tanner McKee has settled into his role nicely as the starter, but this is by far his toughest test in his young career. It’s hard to find many flaws in Oregon’s defense, and by simply possessing the far superior athletes, I think they’ll show out nicely. Each team is in the bottom-half in the country in plays per game, and each is likely to focus on establishing the run. If this total was at, say, 55, I probably wouldn’t play it. But at 57.5, I do see some value on the Under.
*CFB(1u): Florida/Kentucky UNDER 55.5(-110)–Sat. 5 PM CT
Florida QB Emory Jones looked to be in complete control last week against Tennessee, and the first-year starter has shown clear signs of progression already through this young season. However, we’ll see what he’s really made of in Lexington, which will be his first career road SEC start. Kentucky has quietly started the season 4-0, and with the home crowd behind them, I think they can throw off the Gators’ rhythm. There are a lot of new faces on this Kentucky defense, but they’ve done a great job of limiting big plays so far this season. In their Week 2 bout with Missouri, they didn’t allow a gain of more than 24 yards from an explosive Tigers offense. The Gators should be able to establish the run, but I’m still not convinced that Jones can make the big-time throws when it matters most. That being said, I’ve been extremely disappointed with the Kentucky offense this year. We were told all offseason how Will Levis was finally the QB they needed to start to open up the passing game, but that just hasn’t materialized up to this point. Coming off a 16 point performance against lowly South Carolina, I have a hard time trusting the Wildcat offense in this one. Florida is extremely improved on the front 7, and they will be selling out to stop what is a solid Kentucky running attack. I had Kentucky’s OL as one of the worst in the SEC entering this season; this game could very well prove me right given Florida’s pass rushing ability. This game always seems to come down to the wire; if Kentucky wants to keep that trend rolling, it will need to do so via a low scoring game. I expect to see the defenses take center stage and for this game to stay under the total.
*CFB(1u): Liberty ML(+105) @ UAB–Sat. 6 PM CT
After becoming one of the best Group of 5 teams a year ago, Liberty has gotten off to a slow start this season offensively. This was first evident in Week 2 when they put up a mere 21 point performance against Troy, and then it happened again last week in a 24-21 loss at Syracuse. Hugh Freeze is one of the best offensive minds of this generation; out of principle, I’m taking Liberty at a plus-price in this game because a Hugh Freeze-led offense simply can’t continue to have these sorts of struggles. UAB is no slouch defensively, but I’m putting my trust on the arm and legs of Malik Willis and the mind of the Liberty HC.
*CFB(1u): Boston College +15(-110) @ Clemson–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
I don’t know what more Clemson needs to show us before we can all admit they are simply not a very good football team. You can excuse a close loss to Georgia to open the season, but to squeak by Georgia Tech by 6 and then lose on the road to NC State has to set off the alarm. Not only that, but injuries have reared their ugly head on it’s team. Star DL Bryan Breese suffered a season-ending injury last week, and #1 RB Will Shipley is also on the shelf for an extended period of time. DJ Uiagalelei is tasked with playing behind a poor OL and hasn’t developed any continuity with his WR’s. Boston College gave Clemson fits last season and should’ve won that game if not for a late Clemson comeback; I think this game will play out very similarly this year. Jeff Hafley is in his second year in Chestnut Hill and already has BC back on the right track. They’re coming off an OT win against a good Missouri team and should have all the confidence in the world that they can make this a game. Hafley has a reputation of struggling with dual threat QBs and dynamic offenses, and right now, Clemson doesn’t provide either of those threats. It does hurt Boston College that starting QB Phil Jurkovec can’t suit up this weekend, but Dennis Grosel looked plenty competent in a 41 point performance last week. The problems at Clemson are real, and there’s no quick fix to their issues right now. Tuning into Dabo Swinney’s most recent press conferences would indicate that pretty clearly. If the betting markets refuse to adjust Clemson’s power rating, we have no other choice than to keep fading the Tigers.
*CFB(1u): Indiana +12.5(-105) @ Penn State–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
This game features both a buy-low and a sell-high team. Indiana had high expectations coming into the season only to stumble into a 1-2 start. However, those losses came to Iowa and Cincinnati, each of whom find themselves squarely in contention for a CFP bid. Michael Penix struggled in each of those games, but he did show some progression last week with a 373 yard performance through the air against Western Kentucky. You might’ve written the Hoosiers off, but if we’ve learned anything from Tom Allen, it’s that he knows how to get his teams ready to play in these types of games. I’ll tip my cap to Penn State for starting off 4-0, but I don’t think that tells the full story. They easily could’ve dropped one(or both) of their wins against Wisconsin and Auburn; quite frankly, each of those two teams simply aren’t that good. Indiana has shown that they can limit the opponents run game, and even though Penn State’s Sean Clifford has shown improvement early in the season, I’m not ready to assume he’s escaped his past turnover issues. Indiana’s a gritty football team that’s already found themselves in some adversity; Penn State might be getting a little too big for their britches at this point. I will take the points and trust the Indiana offense to keep this a 1 possession game.
