We have a great show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from www.betsperts.com and @DeepDivePod is back to break down the full slate of NFL games with some leans and some plays! First, Andy and Kiev discuss which of the 5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round has been the least terrible. Then, Andy and Kiev discuss some best practices when approaching NFL Week 4. Next, the guys get right into every NFL game on the slate with either a lean or a FREE PLAY for most of the games. Then, Kiev gives out his Refuse To Lose Teaser that is 2-1 so far. Next, Kiev talks some college football plays for our Saturday fix. After that, Kiev discusses some college and NFL sharp money for the weekend. Finally, Kiev gives out a free UFC on ESPN fight night free play!
NFL: Tampa Bay vs New England – Arizona vs LA Rams – Cleveland vs Minnesota and more!
NCAA: LA Tech vs NC State – Ball State vs Army – Texas vs TCU
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Everyone’s talking about the STL 17 game streak which is undoubtedly impressive. The streak I’ve been riding is the Cubs going OVER 13 of their L15. Their combination of mediocre pitching and young bats is a great recipe for Overs. Cubs starter Hendricks has been a winner all season long but in his L10 only 4 games he’s allowed under 3 ER’s. This young Pirates squad is still looking to prove themselves and are going down fighting. The CHC has been fighting for their best pitcher and it shows with his 14-7 record. The wild card in this one is the Pirates young prospect, Roansy Contreras. He looked good in his first game but only threw one inning. This will be his first start in the bigs, and it can go really great or really bad. PNC park has winds blowing out to RF tonight according to Ballparkpal.com, so we could see some balls get out tonight. With the lower 8.5 total, worth riding the streak for this bettor.
Chelsea FC captain, César Azpilicueta lifts the Champions League trophy after beating Manchester City 1-0 in the final (Photo by SportingNews.com)
*UCL: Manchester United to Win & Under 4.5 Goals (-118) vs Villarreal
Manchester United have had a difficult time over the past three or four games. Especially when looking at the 2-1 loss to Young Boys in the first game of this group. But that loss just makes this match even more important for the red devils and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer who’s job has been in question by the media in recent weeks. Solskjaer will put a team out there that includes the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Paul Pobga, Bruno Fernandes in a game where that creativity will be needed. This Man Utd/Villarreal matchup has ended in a 0-0 draw four out of the last five times these two have played. There’s no doubt Villarreal have the defensive stability to hold off United, we’ve seen it several times now, so the under 4.5 goals is justified. But, this is a must win for Manchester United if they want to be in any kind of control of this group. While many believe yet another 0-0 scoreline is in order, the attacking talent at United will win them this game. The match will also take place at home, so United did not have to travel but will have to impress the loud, judgmental Old Trafford crowd. Also, the Manchester United players will surely be up for this one as it was Villarreal that beat them in penalties at the end of last season in the Europa League final. Take United to win this revenge match, in a somewhat low-scoring affair.
*UCL: Chelsea Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+170) vs Juventus
Originally I planned on going with Chelsea Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals (-154) due to the fact that Chelsea are away from home… but realized that I was just playing it too safe (if you want a safer pick, take that!). Chelsea simply rarely concede goals. They have kept clean sheets in four out of six Premier League games this season with the two goals coming against Liverpool and Manchester City. They now face a struggling Juventus side that are without Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata who are both influential to the Juve attack. Chelsea also haven’t scored more than three goals in a match so far this season, where Juventus sit in tenth in Serie A and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Juventus are really struggling at the moment, and although it will be tough for Chelsea playing in Turin at Allianz Stadium, the terrible form of Juve and the exceptional form of Chelsea will write the story. Expect Chelsea to sneak a 1-0 or 2-0 victory today.
*UCL: Sevilla Win (+160) vs Wolfsburg
Sevilla are in great form to start the season, they are unbeaten in seven matches in all competitions. They also haven’t conceded more than one goal in any of those games and have scored in six out of the seven. Sevilla are the far more experienced side in European competition, and with an underwhelming draw last time out, they will want to get back on track and take control of this group. With Wolfsburg conceding 17 shots against a weaker Lille side in the first group game, I expect Sevilla to take control of this game and create chances that will lead to goals based on the gap that suspended centre back, John Brooks will leave in the Wolfsburg defence. As Sevilla are so defensively sound and have been for many years, expect the upcoming Wolfsburg side under Mark Van Bommel to be exposed at the back and ultimately lose this game.
Wisconsin out-gained Notre Dame 314 to 242 yet lost 41-13. A 5-1 turnover ratio and a kick return TD did the Badgers in. Paul Chryst is a Neanderthal.
Virginia out-gained Wake Forest 506 to 473 yet lost 37-17. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt but they were also beat on defense.
Liberty out-gained Syracuse 369-305 yet lost 24-21. 1-0 turnover ratio and revenge was on the minds of the Orange.
Minnesota out-gained Bowling Green 241 to 192 yet lost 14-10. A 3-2 turnover ratio and a sinking boat did them in.
Utah State out-gained Boise State 443 to 435 yet lost 27-3. A 3-1 turnover ratio and very bad redzone efficiency did them in.
Mississippi State out-gained LSU 486 to 343 yet lost 28-25. 2-1 turnover ratio and Mike Leach doing dumb things lost this game.
Texas won 70-35 an only out-gained Texas Tech by 119. 2-1 turnover ratio did some but bad defense was the culprit.
Florida State out-gained Louisville 453 to 395 yet lost 31-23. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad efficiency hurt them.
Iowa State out-gained Baylor 479 to 282 yet lost 31-29. Equal turnovers at 1-1 but bad 3rd down efficiency got the Clones. This was a weird box score.
Nebraska out-gained Michigan State 440 to 254 yet lost 23-20. 2-1 turnover ratio and terrible special teams and field position did them in. This is why sportsbettors like me like them as a dog and hate them as a favorite.
North Texas out-gained LA Tech 333 to 286 yet lost 24-17 with equal turnovers. This score isn’t misleading because LA tech played prevent all second half. Sports Bettors hate prevent.
Georgia Tech only out-gained North Carolina 396 to 369 yet won 45-22. A 3-0 turnover ratio killed the Tarheels.
Troy out-gained Louisiana Monroe 378 – 290 yet lost 29-16. Equal turnovers and bad efficiency got Troy.
Cal out-gained Washington 457-326 yet lost in overtime 31-24. 3-1 turnover ratio hurt them.
Arizona out-gained Oregon 435 to 393 yet lost 41-19. A 5-0 turnover ratio got them but some of these yards were garbage but still, Oregon should have stuffed this bad team.
Another day another dollar for yours truly in baseball, as the under 7.5 in the Phillies vs. Braves game hit on Tuesday, making us 41-20 (67%) over our last 61 plays — Not too shabby! Here’s another free pick for your hump day!
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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units
Giants -1.5 (-128 at BetOnline.ag), 1.28 units: There are plenty of angles and ways to convince yourself to bet big on San Francisco all week and all of them are valid. The Giants have been steadily winning and holding onto their first place spot in the NL West all year, clinging onto small leads to stay ahead of the 2020 World Champion Dodgers. In true form, LAD has kept pace with the Giants, but they just haven’t found a way to edge them out for that top spot. As we approach the final week of regular season baseball, San Francisco remains 2 games ahead of their rival as they welcome the Diamondbacks to Oracle Park for (likely) one more series win against the NL West bottom-feeder. The Giants have predictably owned Arizona all season, winning 15/17 games of their head-to-head series, with 10 of those wins by margins of 2 runs or more. Over the last two weeks, the Giants have been one of the best offenses in baseball, rated top 5 in OBP, Slugging % and wOBA. Of course that’s nothing new since they’ve been top 5 in almost every offensive category all season. The Diamondbacks (shocker) have been one of the worst all year and over the last 14 days. Alex Wood will get the nod today for San Francisco while Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Although their overall stats are similar, these two teams are not. Arizona is 20-59 on the road, while San Francisco is 50-26 at home and 54-20 in their last 74 games as a favorite. Adding the supreme motivation of protecting their top-spot as this year’s NL West champ, I’m on the home-team Giants to win by margin yet again.
Team USA absolutely dominated Team Europe in the Ryder Cup winning by a score of 19-9. This was the largest margin victory since Continental Europe began playing in 1979. This performance was extremely encouraging from a US perspective as they have historically struggled against Europe. Even with all the drama coming into the Ryder Cup, they were able to come together. The US team is also very young and should have most, if not all, of these players returning for the 2022 Ryder Cup held in Italy.
We’re now onto the second event of the 2022 PGA Tour, the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The Sanderson Farms Championship has been a staple on the PGA Tour since 1994. Prior to that this tournament was generally played opposite to a major. However, with the current prize pool and FedEx Cup points at stake, the tournament has had a more competitive draw each year. This tournament still has a relatively weaker field compared to other events but, that’s to be expected during the Fall season.
Tournament Information:
Dates: September 30, 2021- October 3, 2021
Location: Jackson, Mississippi, United States
Course: The Country Club of Jackson
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,461 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Champion bermudagrass .110″
Fairways: 419 bermudagrass .450″
Rough: 419 bermudagrass/ Zeon zoysia 2″
Purse: $7,000,000 / Winner $1.260 Million
Fedex Cup Points: 500
Stimpmeter: 12 feet
Avg. Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft
Water Hazards: : 7 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
Bunkers: 56
Stroke Average:
2020: 71.08 (-0.92)
2019: 70.90 (-1.10)
Course History:
The Country Club of Jackson was founded in 1914, but was moved to it’s current location in 1962. The course was redesigned from 2007 to 2008 by John Fought. During this renovation he lengthen the course and altered the greens. In 2014, the Country Club of Jackson officially became the new home for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
Course Guide:
The Country Club of Jackson plays at 7,461 yards, which is pretty standard length for the PGA Tour. The course is set on a relatively flat property. The fairways are wider than the tour average but, do have trees along both sides most holes. This is a pretty vanilla course when it comes to the Tour with not a lot of hazards or tough approach shots. As seen by the previous scores, you’re going to have to capitalize on birdie opportunities to win this tournament.
For these early tournaments, I wont have to many plays and will try to keep the unit stake small. It’s a long season so you don’t want to risk your whole bankroll early.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Going to take the +7 with PHX Mercury tonight, although this line has moved from +5.5, I like the value getting the extra points. The Aces have a better team with better depth but the Big 3 for Phoenix has been lights out lately. This could be Taurasi’s last year in the league so I’m expecting MAX effort in this series. These teams split their two previous matchups, but both were close with the visiting team taking the victory. PHX also just went into Seattle and took that game but that score was misleading because they let Seattle come back at the end to take it into OT. I’ll also be sprinkling the ML in this one.
