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NFL Power Rankings Week 2

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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When betting the tight NFL market, there’s nothing you can do to help yourself more than to make your own power rankings. It’s not too late! Numbers, however subjective, are a great starting point for comparison to what oddsmakers put out there and how the market reacts. My most successful NFL betting seasons are in large part to the fact that I sit down every week and build an Excel sheet (yes it’s rudimentary- but go with what you know).  Before I get into my NFL power rankings, in case anyone wants to know, this is my basic process…

I start my season by using the consensus NFL future win totals. VegasInsider.com had a nice list I used this year, (2021 NFL Win Totals Odds | Team Over Under Wins Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)). From there, a basic approach would be to add points all the way down the list of projected wins. For example, KC was projected 12.5 wins and HOU 4 wins, therefore HOU would have an -8.5 spread against HOU on a neutral field. If KC were at home, they would be an 11.5 favorite. Personally, I adjust those numbers to what I think the lines should be but the lines that are up are great for comparison as well.

The most influential part of my handicap is the injury report, (NFL Injury Report – Football Player Injuries – CBSSports.com). How you weigh these position players makes a difference. Outside of the QB, injuries to the OL and DL are the most significant. That’s where I think I’m different from the general NFL market. By position I tend to grade as follows QB/OL=1, DL/ LB=0.75, WR/DB=0.25, with exceptions, of course, based on talent.

After the injury report, I like to look at team statistics and what I use the most is Pro Football Reference, (2021 NFL Standings & Team Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com). I’ll use these notes for a bigger picture of what’s going on with a team and to see how a team matches up with an opponent. Then, I’ll consider the opening lines and narratives around the teams.

That being said, I am writing this later than I would like. These are my numbers prior to the Thursday game. This chart is hard to read as the conversion from Excel is not great but, if I would have gone with my Week 2 numbers on the Thursday game I would have done well last night. I had NYG -6 behind the best team and WAS -6.5. Factor in the 3 points for homefield and I had WAS -2.5 instead of the WAS -3.5 closing number. Making the right plays are another conversation.

I wanted to put these out earlier in the week but, life… I will adjust these numbers Saturday once finalized injury reports are out. Again, Excel conversion looks like shit but a look into how I build my rankings… and what I have. Use them to fade or follow but wanted to put something out there because I like to look at power rankings myself. If any interest in my power rankings throughout the year let me know on Twitter @kooziekris or @theoddsbreakers.

Week 1 Rank Team Offseason Point Adjustment Opinion News/ Noteables/ Narratives Total Adjustment Adjusted points Week 2 Rank Team Week 2 Points
1 KC -0.5 33 pts v decent DEF. 27th Rush YPA. 21st Team DEF 0 -0.5 1 TB 0
2 TB 0 LB Q. 4 Tos. 30th Rush yds. 31st Pass DEF 0 0 2 KC -0.5
3 BUF -0.5 4 Fmb. 19th Pass yds, 15th Rush yds v good DEF. 0 -0.5 3 LAR -0.5
4 BAL -1.5 LBs, WRs, RBs, CBs Out. (-3). 22nd Pass yds OFF. 4 Fmb. 32nd pass DEF -3 -4.5 4 BUF -0.5
5 LAR -0.5 2 DL Q. 3rd YPP. 24th Rush yds 0 -0.5 5 CLE -1
6 SF -0.5 RB, CB out(-0.5). CB, DT, 2 DE Q (-1). 10th pass/ 11th rush yds. -1 -1.5 6 SF -1.5
7 CLE -1 3 OL Q.(-3) WR out. 2nd Off yds. 7th Rush, 27th Pass v KC -1 -1 7 SEA -2
8 GB -1.5 OT out (WK7). 32nd Rush yds/ 31st YPA.31st Team DEF, 3rd Pass/ 30th rush -0.5 -2 8 GB -2
9 SEA -1.5 OG out(WK15)(-0.5). 4th YPP. 7th Team DEF -0.5 -2 9 LAC -2
10 NE -3.5 OT Q (-0.5) CB out (WK7). 4 Fmb. 24th Off. 6th Pass, 9th Rush DEF 0 -3.5 10 NOR -2.5
11 LAC -2 OT Q (-1). S, DB Q (-1). 9th Total yds OFF. 8th Total DEF 0 -2 11 ARI -3
12 MIA -3.5 28th Off yds. 18th Pass, 20th rush DEF. 0 -3.5 12 MIA -3.5
13 NOR -2.5 C Do (-1), CB Do(-0.5) LB Q (-0.5), K out 2nd Rush Off. #1 DEF yds. COVID? 0 -2.5 13 NE -3.5
14 TEN -3.5 WR, LB Q(-1). 32nd YPP, 31st total yds. 30th Team DEF -0.5 -4 14 PIT -3.5
15 IND -3 OG, 2 OT, LB Q (-1.5). 26th YPP.17th Rush, 21st Pass OFF. 13th Pass, 25th Rush DEF. -0.5 -3.5 15 IND -3.5
16 DAL -4 2 DE/ OT/ WR out (-1.5), S Q (-0.5) 3rd Off yds. DEF 4 fTOs. 3rd Rush/ 30th Pass DEF -1.5 -5.5 16 DEN -3.5
17 MIN -4 LB Q (-0.5). 29th Rush YPA. Most penalty yds. 10th pass, 26th rush DEF 0 -4 17 TEN -4
18 PIT -3.5 OT out(WK4). LB Q (-0.25). 29th Off. Yds. 9th Team DEF, DEF looks great 0 -3.5 18 MIN -4
19 ARI -3.5 OT Q (ribs)(-0.5). 10th Rush yds. 3rd Team DEF, 4th Pass, 13th Rush 0.5 -3 19 CAR -4.5
20 WAS -6 QB out(-0. 5). 3 Fmb. 32nd Pass yds. 28th Pass DEF -0.5 -6.5 20 BAL -4.5
21 DEN -4 DE, LB Q. CB(WK5), WR (WK6)out (-0.5). 10th Total OFF yds. 4th Team DEF 0.5 -3.5 21 LVR -4.75
22 CHI -5.5 OL,DT,LB Q (-1). 23rd Total yds OFF. 8th rush, 24th Pass DEF -0.5 -6 22 DAL -5.5
23 CAR -4.5 13th YPP. 2nd rush DEF, 9th Pass DEF 0 -4.5 23 PHI -6
24 ATL -6 31st Off. Most DEF penalties. 31st Rush DEF. All around bad. -1 -7 24 NYG -6
25 LVR -4.5 OG, DT out (-0.75). 2 LB, OG, RB Q. (-0.5) 1st Off.yds. 18th Team DEF. Looked good. -0.25 -4.75 25 CHI -6
26 NYG -6 TE, OG out(-0.5). 30th Off. 16th Pass, 29th Rush DEF. TOs cost them 0 -6 26 CIN -6.5
27 JAX -7.5 CB Q. 15th Off yds/ YPP. 3 Tos. 21st Pass, 28th Rush yds DEF, 29th Team DEF -0.5 -8 27 WAS -6.5
28 CIN -6.5 7th Rush yds. 21st Total OFF yds. DEF most penalty yds. 6th rush DEF, 29th pass 0 -6.5 28 NYJ -6.5
29 PHI -6.5 RB, OG, WR, TE Q (-1.25). 3rd Rush OFF. 2nd Team DEF 0.5 -6 29 ATL -7
30 NYJ -7 31st Rush yds, 30th Total OFF. 12th Team DEF. Could’ve won 0.5 -6.5 30 HOU -7.5
31 DET -7.5 CB out(season)(-0.5). 7th Total OFF (garbage time). 32nd Team DEF -0.5 -8 31 DET -8
32 HOU -7.5 2 DB, LB, WR Q. K out (WK4). 4th Off yds.2nd 3DConv. 26th Pass, 11th rush DEF 0 -7.5 32 JAX -8

 

Adding copy of RH half of chart because it gets cut off on phone view.

 

Total Adjustment Adjusted points Week 2 Rank Team Week 2 Points
0 -0.5 1 TB 0
0 0 2 KC -0.5
0 -0.5 3 LAR -0.5
-3 -4.5 4 BUF -0.5
0 -0.5 5 CLE -1
-1 -1.5 6 SF -1.5
-1 -1 7 SEA -2
-0.5 -2 8 GB -2
-0.5 -2 9 LAC -2
0 -3.5 10 NOR -2.5
0 -2 11 ARI -3
0 -3.5 12 MIA -3.5
0 -2.5 13 NE -3.5
-0.5 -4 14 PIT -3.5
-0.5 -3.5 15 IND -3.5
-1.5 -5.5 16 DEN -3.5
0 -4 17 TEN -4
0 -3.5 18 MIN -4
0.5 -3 19 CAR -4.5
-0.5 -6.5 20 BAL -4.5
0.5 -3.5 21 LVR -4.75
-0.5 -6 22 DAL -5.5
0 -4.5 23 PHI -6
-1 -7 24 NYG -6
-0.25 -4.75 25 CHI -6
0 -6 26 CIN -6.5
-0.5 -8 27 WAS -6.5
0 -6.5 28 NYJ -6.5
0.5 -6 29 ATL -7
0.5 -6.5 30 HOU -7.5
-0.5 -8 31 DET -8
0 -7.5 32 JAX -8

Kyle Hunter’s CFB Free Friday Play

By
Kyle Hunter
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*3 Star Free Pick* The Louisville Cardinals have a weak defense. In the past Louisville was able to win games with their elite skill position talent on offense. Now, it is Cunningham by himself and it is a real struggle. With no Atwell or Hawkins around him, I find it hard to believe Cunningham will do very well here against a UCF defense that is especially strong on the defensive line.

UCF had ugly defensive numbers last year, but remember this team had a bunch of opt outs and COVID issues through the year last year. The Knights are much better defensively this year.

The perception likely isn’t as high on UCF as it should be. Their season opening tight win over Boise State was misleading. UCF dominated the box score in that contest.

On offense, Dillon Gabriel and UCF are going to be tremendous in their uptempo system all year. With this line sitting at just less than a touchdown, I see value on the Knights.

Take UCF.

(My “Kyle Hunter Totally Totals Package is now available at The Oddsbreakers! 8-0 SWEEP on my CFB premium selections last Saturday. Join in!)

College Football Week 3 Motivational Spots – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Potential Let down spots:

Iowa hosting Kent State after beating rival Iowa State.

Arkansas vs Georgia Southern after beating Texas as a home dog.

BYU hosting ASU after winning the holy war.

Stanford at Vanderbilt after beating USC.

Get up spots:

USC better get up at Washington State next week after that home loss.

Texas hosing Rice could spell disaster after they lost to Arkansas.

Iowa State might want to truck UNLV at Allegiant Stadium.

Utah will want to wipe the floor with San Diego State.

Ohio State will get up vs Tulsa after losing to Oregon.

Washington better get up vs Arkansas State after starting 0-2.

Potential Look Ahead Spots:

Notre Dame looking past Purdue to Wisconsin is very possible.

UCLA could be looking past Fresno State to Stanford but they are coming off the bye.

Arkansas could be looking past Georgia Southern to Texas A&M

 

 

 

 

NFL Thirsty Thursday Free Prop Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here.   You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase!  18-10 in College Football and up 42 Units over the last 2 years in the NFL!

 

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NY Giants vs Washington Football team Prop Play #SportsBetting #FreePlay #predictions #Winning @

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NFL Week 1 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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  • Dallas out-gained Tampa Bay 451 to 431 and lost 31-29, they also benefitted from a 1-4 turnover ratio.  Bad coaching and Brady/Gronk got em.
  • The Bills out-gained the Steelers 371 to 252 yet lost 23-16.  A 1-0 turnover ratio hurt and that Steeler D was fierce.
  • Minnesota out-gained Cincinnati 403 to 366 yet lost in overtime 27-24.  1-0 turnover ratio hurt in OT
  • Cleveland out-gained Kansas City 457-397 yet lost 33-29.   A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them in the second half.  They blew this game.
  • The Patriots out-gained the Dolphins 393 to 259 yet lost 17-16.  A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them.  They also benefited from a bad roughing the passer call.

September 16th NFL Pick

By
Michael Fordham
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LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 25: Antonio Gibson #24 of the Washington Football Team runs with the ball in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at FedExField on October 25, 2020 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

I stayed hot last night with a 2-0, +2.95u performance in the MLB slate. That included a 1.5u premium winner, which boosted my premium record to 13-5, +15.3u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*NFL(1u): Giants/Washington Football Team 1H UNDER 20(-110)–7:20 PM CT

While 20 is a very low 1H total, it’s important to realize that it is set that low for a reason. Washington has one of the top defenses in the NFL, as evidenced last week when they held a potentially prolific Chargers offense to just 20 points. This week’s matchup sets up to be much easier; the Giants looked totally inept in Denver last Sunday, and it appears there is little to no continuity between QB Daniel Jones and his WR’s. It also helps that the Giants ran their offense at one of the slowest paces in the NFL last season. That being said, the Giants defense is consistently undervalued by the oddsmakers, and they should be able to keep the WFT offense at bay. After QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with an injury last week, Ron Rivera will turn towards backup Taylor Heinicke to run his offense tonight. Heinicke can be an effective QB at this level(as evidenced by his playoff performance against Tampa Bay last year), but you can’t expect him to be in peak form this early in the season. With only 3 days to prepare for this game, I believe Washington will keep the ball on the ground and play things very close to the chest; because the Giants don’t present much of a threat towards their defense, that sort of gameplan should be enough to earn them a win. I don’t want to play the FG total in case we see one team have to turn heavily towards the pass, but early in this game, I expect points to be at a premium. 

Laying the Points with FarleyBets – NFL Week 2 ATS Breakdown

By
Chris R. Farley
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Falcons and Bucs facing off.

 

Every Thursday, Chris (@farleybets) and Steve (@snormsnorm) review every NFL game from an ATS perspective! Last week Chris’ bets earned +10 units and Steve’s bets earned +11 units! What a start! Follow us on Twitter and–

Check out our full Week 2 betting analysis, exclusively on YouTube this week!

(PS- Laying the Points will look and sound different starting next week – we’re DONE with these technical issues! Thank you for bearing with us through these unproduced episodes!)

Podcast 62 – 21 – With Marco D’Angelo – NFL Week 2 and College Football Week 3 Info and Plays – Sharp Line Movements – UFC – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today!   Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from Wagertalk.com is back to break down some Saturday and Sunday pigskin!   First, Kiev discusses the format of our show and get’s into what over reaction week means as well as the importance of weather.   Second, Kiev talks about a big waiver move made in fantasy football.  Next, Marco comes on to discuss more how over reactions pertain to the betting market, some strategies to attack that market, as well as some of the lines that fit the bill.   Then, the guys get into some NFL football games with a lot of agreement on their free plays.  Next, Marco and Kiev get into College Football week 3 with some agreement and a little disagreement in some of their plays.   After that, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that went 11-6 last year in the NFL.   Then, we talk about some sharp action in both the professional and college scene.  Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE UFC PLAY for your weekend pleasure!

Footballcontest.com – Circa millions – Westgate Super Contest – William Hill

NFL:  Buffalo vs Miami – Dallas vs LA Chargers – LA Rams vs Colts and more!

NCAA:  Tulane vs Ole Miss – Florida State vs Wake Forest – Auburn vs Penn State and more!

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If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners, please become a member of The OddsBreakers www.theoddsbreakers.com/shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves!  Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups until October 1st.   You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.

College Football Week 2 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
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  • Coastal Carolina only outgained Kansas 460 to 412 yet won 49-22.   They actually were the ones with the garbage yards in the 4th.
  • Western Kentucky out-gained Army 477 to 416 yet lost 38-35.   Equal turnovers and this game got close.
  • Tulsa out-gained Oklahoma State 347 t0 313 yet lost 28-23.  They also won the turnover battle 2-0 so explain that!   Bad efficiency.
  • Miami Ohio Out-gained Minnesota 341 to 287 yet lost 31-26.  A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
  • Ohio State out-gained Oregon 612 to 505 yet lost 35-28.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad efficiency hurt them.  6/15 on 3rd downs was a big stat and they also had twice as many penalties as the Ducks.
  • Northern Illinois out-gained Wyoming 477 to 395 yet lost 50-43.  A 3-1 turnover ratio at home hurt.
  • Syracuse out-gained Rutgers 258 – 195 yet lost 17-7.  A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
  • Iowa State out-gained Iowa 339 to 173, a 4-0 turnover ratio killed them but that Iowa D is what really stood out to me.   If this was played again I make Iowa a 3 point favorite on a neutral.
  • Memphis and Arkansas State had equal yards at 680 yet Memphis had 2 turnovers and still won the game on the road 55-50.
  • NC State out-gained Mississippi State 335 to 316 yet lost 24-10.  3-0 turnover ratios will do that.
  • FIU out-gained Texas State 400 to 336 yet lost 23-17.  A nasty 3-0 turnover ratio smoked em.
  • Bad news Notre Dame, Florida State just lost and was out-gained by Jacksonville State.  Can’t wait to hear the aftermath on that one.
  • I think that there will be value on Washington going forward.   Just wanted to say that.
  • Colorado State out-gained Vanderbilt 445 to 342 yet lost 24-21.   Even turnovers and bad defense in the 3rd quarter.
  • USC out-gained Stanford 408 to 375 but lots of that was garbage comeback yards so this score was right.

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday MLB Totals Play +NYG vs Washington Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The Thursday night NFL Total system of the Month headlines in the NFL. In College Football we have Our Power System Play of the Week and a September Specific MLB Totals System. MLB Comp Play below.

The MLB Comp Play is on the Over 10 runs in the NYY at Baltimore game at 7:05 eastern. Look for a higher scoring game here tonight in the series finale. Baltimore has gone over the last 3 vs a lefty and 25 of 34 at home vs a winning team as well as 5 of 6 in game 3 of a series. NY has gone over he last 4 on Thursdays and  5 of 6 vs a right. Ellis for the Orioles went 5 inning sand allowed just 1 hit vs NYY 2 weeks ago in 5 innings. Now that they have seen him they should do much better against him. Look for the Orioles to get a few runs off Montgomery and push this game over the total. In the NFL we have our NFL Thursday night Football Total of the Month backed with a huge Thursday specific system. There is the College Football Play of the Week and another Powerful MLB Play with a September Specific System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out. For the NLB Comp Play. Play NY and Baltimore over the total. Rob V- GC Sports

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