Home Blog Page 478

Week 5 CFB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

Premium Record: 20-10-1, +16.3u

*CFB(1.5u): Iowa -3(-110) @ Maryland–Fri. 7 PM CT

Maryland has seemingly started to put things together in year 3 of the Mike Locksley era. The Terrapins enter this week’s game against #5 Iowa with a 4-0 record, but I believe they are getting way too much love. They do have 2 P5 wins against West Virginia and Illinois, but the Illini are not a bowl caliber team this season, and I’m not so confident the Mountaineers are either. They won those games by a combined 9 points, which doesn’t seem too conducive to a team ready to enter a “big boy” type of matchup. Iowa plays a very boring style of offense and likes to keep the ball on the ground; this is effective because their defense is so good at getting stops and forcing turnovers. Remember, there’s a reason Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured HC in College Football. The Terps haven’t proven to me they are physical enough in the trenches to compete with one of the best lines in the country on each side of the ball. Taulia Tagovailoa has good numbers for Maryland this season, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to points; Maryland is averaging under 30 points/game against FBS competition this year. The younger brother of Tua showed last year how low his floor could be, and I think he is due for a rough performance against arguably the best defense in the country. If Iowa QB Spencer Petras can limit turnovers, this should be an easy cover for the Hawkeyes. I expect Iowa to take care of business tonight.

*CFB(1.5u): Michigan/Wisconsin 1H UNDER 21(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT

If you’re looking for excitement in your weekend, this might not be the game for you. This sets up to be a defensive standoff given what each team has shown this season. Michigan has totally revamped their offense this year to feature an almost exclusive ground attack; QB Cade McNamara has attempted just 13 passes/game this season. This game plan has worked against the lesser competition on Michigan’s schedule, but the Wolverines totally sputtered in the second half last week against Rutgers, recording just 1 first down in the final 30 minutes of the game. Wisconsin has one of the best front 7’s in the country, and I expect them to totally stuff the Michigan run game. That being said, I don’t know how you could have any confidence in this Badger offense right now. Graham Mertz totally sputtered in the second half last week against Notre Dame, and turnovers continue to be a problem for the young QB. On top of that, the Wisconsin RB’s have had trouble breaking off long runs; consequently, Wisconsin has averaged less than 20 points/game this season. This Michigan defense is legitimate in their own right, not having allowed more than 14 points in a game this season and being loaded with experience at each position group. I expect to see tons of punts and stalled drives early in this game, which should allow this 1H total to hit with ease. 

*CFB(1.5u): Cincinnati ML(-125) @ Notre Dame–Sat. 1:30 PM CT

Make no mistake about it: This game is Cincinnati’s Super Bowl. With a win in South Bend on Saturday, the Bearcats will likely find themselves in control of their own destiny for this year’s College Football Playoff. Throw out any preconceived notions you may have about Group of 5 teams, because this Cincy team is simply better than Notre Dame. QB Desmond Ridder will be making his 37th career start on Saturday and leads an RPO-style offense that the Irish have had their struggles with this season. Notre Dame has been somewhat vulnerable against the pass this season, so given that the Bearcats have had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this game, I’d expect a sharp and well-executed gameplan from their offense. However, where Cincy is going to win this game is defensively. I expect Irish QB Jack Coan to play, but he is going to be less than 100%. That doesn’t set up well considering the Bearcat DL unit is one of the best in the country. Cincy also has a pair of really solid corners, and I think they’ll be up for the challenge against the Notre Dame WR’s. Again, this game means EVERYTHING to Cincinnati. With 2 weeks to prepare, I think we see a flawless effort from the road favorite. Instead of laying the 2 points, I’ll take Cincinnati on the ML for just a 15 cent tax. 

*CFB(1.5u): Nevada +6 @ Boise State(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

I’ve watched a lot of Boise State live this season, and I’ve been pretty disappointed from what I’ve seen. The offense seems to go in dark spells quite often, and the Broncos have failed to take advantage of their opponents’ mistakes. Nevada is coming off a rather disappointing loss at Kansas State, but the Wolfpack can take solace in the fact that Boise doesn’t have anybody near the capabilities of K-State RB Deuce Vaughn. This game has major implications in the Mountain West, and coming off an off week, I think we’ll see a revamped Nevada team. QB Carson Strong is one of the best in all of CFB; seeing what Dillon Gabriel did to this Boise defense, I feel confident that the Wolfpack will get what they want offensively. Strong gets all the notoriety for Nevada, but Jay Norvell has a sneaky good defense, especially in Mountain West terms. Boise State is a team that plays scared and doesn’t seem willing to let Hank Bachmeier air the ball out; I want to bet against those teams, especially when the other team is willing to be aggressive. I made this line 2.5, so I see enormous value on the Nevada side. I think they’ll win the game, but taking the 6 points is the smarter play. 

*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma State -3.5(-110) vs Baylor–Sat. 6 PM CT

Baylor proved me wrong(somewhat) last week and sent my 2u best bet on Iowa State -7 up into flames with an outright victory over the Cyclones. The Bears used a hot start offensively and a kick return TD to pull off the upset, but my bearishness on Baylor remains unchanged. They face another tough defense in Oklahoma State this week; through 4 weeks, I would crown this Cowboys D as the best in the Big12. They’ve allowed less than 20 points/game this season and are proven at every position group. Baylor’s run game has a limited ceiling, and the only way they’ll have a chance is through the vertical passing game. Safe to say, I don’t think they’ll be able to execute at the level needed to cover this number. It’s also worth mentioning that Mike Gundy opened up the Pokes’ passing game last week after featuring a run-first attack to start the season; Spencer Sanders threw for 344 yards and 2 TD’s against Kansas State last week in a 31-20 win. I’m not necessarily calling for an Okie State blowout, but I don’t expect this game to ever be in doubt. I like the home team by 10+. 

*2 Team Teaser(1u): Nevada +12 @ Boise State, Arizona State +9 @ UCLA(-120)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT

Nevada play explained above. As for Arizona State/UCLA, I think we’re getting a situation where the wrong team is favored. Arizona State is an easy team to back because they’re talented, well-coached, and experienced. Jayden Daniels is completing 72.6% of his passes through 4 games and possesses a clear advantage over UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. However, the one edge UCLA could have is it’s physicality in the run game, an area that Arizona State has yet to be truly tested in this season. Rather than take a 50/50 shot on the underdog at the +3, I feel much better about teasing the Arizona State up to a 2 possession spread at +9. I think this is a toss-up game that is likely to end up with a close win in either direction; paired with a Nevada pick I feel good about even at it’s posted spread, this simple 2 team teaser should be able to get the job done for us. 

*CFB(1u): Northwestern/Nebraska 1H UNDER 25.5(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT

I was higher on Northwestern than most entering this season, but I’m already nearing a point where I’m ready to write off that OVER 6.5 wins ticket. The Wildcats have played QB roulette so far this season, and it appears South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is in position to make his second straight start. However, he managed only 4.4 yards/attempt last week against Ohio, and the lack of stability at the QB position has forced Pat Fitzgerald to revert back to a slow-paced, run-first offense. Nebraska has it’s issues, but I actually think they’re fairly strong defensively. While the Northwestern offense has been a disaster, Fitzgerald seems to have the defense in solid current form. They’ve allowed just 14 points/game over their past 3 games and 7 turnovers over that stretch. Adrian Martinez is prone to his fair share of mistakes, and I think the Northwestern defense is capable of baiting him into some bad decisions early in this game. I wouldn’t advise watching this game for the sake of your sanity, but I do think the 1H Under in this one is a strong bet.

College Football Week 5 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Get Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays for only $100 per month Click Here.   You also will get a FREE “THE ODDSBREAKERS” TSHIRT with your purchase until October 2nd!  35-23 in College Football up 27 Units and 23-18 in the NFL up 8U!

Texas vs TCU +5 O/U 65.5

This handicap is a no brainer for me.  TCU looked bad last week and it was against a pretty darn good SMU team that they probably took too lightly while looking ahead to Texas.  My question is, what has Texas done to deserve a road favorite over 3 points against a Gary Patterson led TCU team?   Lets see who Texas played so far?   They beat Louisiana Lafayette with some officiating help.  That game was close until the 4th quarter.  Next, they lost outright as road favorites to Arkansas by 19 points.  Then, they beat down Rice who is one of the worst teams in football.  Finally, they took on a Texas Tech team who’s defense is like swiss cheese and beat them handily mainly because Tech lost their starting quarterback in the first half.  TCU at least beat a decent Cal team at home.   Now TCU doesn’t have the flash and the glamour that Texas has under Sark, but they certainly have some of the grit on defense to be able to slow Texas down some.  Now I know that Texas has all the metrics here based on the easier schedule, but even after playing the easy teams, they are only a +.97 yards per play.  The biggest thing for me in this handicap is the look ahead spot that Texas has to Oklahoma.   TCU is coming off a loss and they need a good showing.  Looking at this matchup the last 7 years, TCU has won 6 of the 7 games outright and covered 6 of the 7 times as well.  Gonna take the Horned Frogs here and call out the fraud in the Long Horns.

TCU +5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Army vs Ball State +7 O/U 47.5

Army has been a pretty big surprise for me as they are currently ranked number 2 in EPA margin, and having some very great success against decent teams like Western Kentucky and Georgia State.  Ball State on the other hand is a shell of themselves from last season’s success and they are currently at only one win so far vs an FC opponent.   QB Drew Pitt hasn’t been what he was last year and I am not sure that they can turn it around just yet.  The biggest issue for Ball State here is that teams have been averaging 4.9 yards per rush and that is with a very weak schedule thus far minus the Penn state game.  I just can’t see how they are going to be able to stop the option and that big Army rushing attack that averages 5.22 yards per carry.   Right now Ball State is a -1.98 net yards per play which is one of the worst in college football.  Army ranks number 11 in yards per point and Ball State ranks 122nd.  Sorry, but I have to go with the Black Knights here in this spot until I see something different and I’ll lay the points.

Army -7 – 1.5 stars

LA Tech vs NC State -21 O/U 55

This is a complete spot play for me here.   The question that you have to ask yourself is, what is NC State this year?   Well, let’s see.   They blew out 2 cupcakes and then lost to Mississippi State who isn’t a very good SEC team.   The Wolfpack just beat a very over-rated Clemson team and now they are in a massive let down spot.   If it wasn’t for the bye week coming up, I would call this a look ahead spot to Boston College but I am not sure that NC State is going to take the Bulldogs seriously.   LA Tech is a very dangerous team in spots like this because they had themselves a pretty decent schedule only losing to, yes, that’s right, Mississippi State by 1 point and the SMU team that just beat TCU by 2.   I like battle tested group of five teams.   I know that LA Tech’s starting quarterback Austin Kendall tested positive and missed last week’s game due to Covid, but their backup Aaron Allen threw the ball at a nice 73% completion last game, and should do just fine if Kendall can’t go.  LA Tech ranks a modest 32nd in Pass EPA while NC State only ranks 98th.   LA Tech is also a very solid 12 yards per point efficiency stat while NC State is at 15.2.   Prepare yourself for a potential large upset this game and if all goes well, you might be feeling pretty good either way in that 4th quarter.  Bet the spread for 2 stars and make sure you sprinkle that shit.

LA Tech +21 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Kyle’s CFB Free Play Friday

By
Kyle Hunter
-

Iowa -3

*3 Star Free Pick on Iowa* Maryland’s passing attack has been very good this year. The Terrapins haven’t played any good pass defenses this year. Iowa has a top 10 or 15 secondary every year. They rank #4 in PFF’s coverage grade so far this year. What is the toughest pass defense Maryland has faced up to this point this season? According to PFF it is #68 Illinois. This is a big step up in class for Maryland’s passing attack.

Iowa is 19-5-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes already went to Iowa State and won. This is a well coached team that is laying a small number. The much better defense here should carry Iowa in a big game in the Big Ten.

Take Iowa.

(6-0 last 6 plays. 32-10 last 42 plays! Join in this weekend!)

College Football Free Play – Late Night KNAction

By
Shawn Knoche
-

When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have another one for you on Saturday in college football.

So far the CFB season has been great.  30-20 record thus far with a nice 24% ROI.  3-0 on Free Late night plays.

This week’s late night Free Pick features a Pac-12 battle between UCLA and Arizona State. UCLA -3.5; 55.5 are the current lines. Both teams are 3-1 coming in with losses to strong Non Power Five opponents. UCLA lost to Fresno State at home 40-37 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close. Fresno fumbled in the Red zone with 9 minutes left going in to score. Next possession they fumbled on the first play inside their own 20. Both led to UCLA Touchdowns and allowed them to get back in the game. Fresno outgained UCLA 569-395. ASU lost to BYU on the road 27-17. They outgained BYU 426-361, but 4 turnovers did them in.

I think these two programs are the top in the Pac-12 South early on this year and there’s a good chance whoever wins this plays in the conference title game.

UCLA’s Chip Kelly offense has been chugging along so far averaging 39 PPG.  428 YPG so far and a very balanced attack with 234 Yards through the air and 194 on the ground. The concerning part for me is they have been boom or bust. In non-garbage time they are averaging 3.84 plays per drive. Defensively they have been stout against the run allowing just 64 YPG on the ground. Teams have been able to move the ball through the air a bit,  primarily Fresno, but they have been susceptible to big plays.

ASU features dual threat sophomore QB Jayden Daniels. He is extremely mobile and likes to push the ball down the field in the passing game. They have also features a balanced attack averaging 32.5 PPG and 438 YPG. 228 through the air and 210 on the ground. The have an elite offensive lines in the running game and it should be a battle with the UCLA front 7. Their defense has played havoc on opponents so far this year. The are 6th in turnovers forced, and are one also one of the top teams against the run. If they clean up one spot where they have had trouble which is on third down, I think UCLA is in for a rough day trying to move the football consistently.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson the QB for UCLA has been amazing so far this year, but he hasn’t faced a defense quite like this one. I think ASU can get some stops on third down. UCLA is gonna score some points, don’t get me wrong, but if they contain DTR which I expect the old ball coach to find some ways to do I think they have an edge here. Gimme Herm over Chip in a battle of old NFL coaches and watch the Sun Devils win the late night battle in Pasadena.  Take ASU +3.5, 2 Units and a healthy sprinkle on the Moneyline.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets – Week 4 ATS Breakdown

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Tom Brady pictured, opposing Bill Belichick.

 

Join myself (@ChrisRFarley1) and Steve (@snormsnorm) every week by watching live on Twitter, via YouTube, right here at TheOddsBreakers, or everywhere you listen to podcasts!

For my premium picks delivered to your inbox EVERY DAY, click here!
NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
MLB Season Record: 228-198 (54%)
NFL Season Record: 25-22, +14 units

 

College Football Week 5 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 9/29/21:

Sharp Money On:

  • Tulsa -4.5 hosting Houston – 53% tickets and 93% of the money.
  • Utah State +9.5 hosting BYU – 17% tickets and 43% of the money.
  • Georgia Tech +4.5 to +3.5 – 61% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • USC -6.5 to -7.5 – 89% Tickets and 97% of the money.  Dual action.
  • Amy -5 to -7 hosting Ball State – 97% tickets and 97% of the money.
  • UTSA -19.5 to -21.5 hosting UNLV – 82% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Nebraska -8 to -11.5 hosting Northwestern – 73% tickets and 85% of the money.

Sharp totals:

  • Duke vs UNC under 72.5 – 52% tickets and 96% of the money.
  • App State vs Georgia State over 54 to 55.5 – 50% tickets and 85% of the money.
  • Ole Miss vs Alabama under 80 – 52% tickets and 72% of the money.
  • UTEP vs Old Dominion over 48.5 – 15% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • Arkansas vs Georgia over 48 – 43% tickets and 72% of the money.

NFL Week 4 Sharp Money

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 9/28/21:

Sharp Money On:

  • Lions +3 to +2.5 at the Bears – 74% tickets and 84% of the money.
  • Washington -1.5 – 52% tickets and 81% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Giants vs Saints over 41.5 – 45% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Seahawks vs 49ers under 52 – 56% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Cardinals vs Rams under 55 – 36% tickets and 95% of the money.
  • Steelers vs Packers under 48 to 46 – 40% tickets and 97% of the money.

September 30th CFB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
-

Entering Week 5 of the CFB season, my CFB record sits at 26-22-1, +9.81u. I will have my full card out by Friday morning as we gear up for another loaded slate. My premium plays have hit at a 67% clip and netted my members +16.35u over the past month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CFB(1u): Virginia/Miami OVER 62(-110)–6:30 PM CT

Each of these teams is 2-2 to start the season, and neither is particularly happy with how things have played out up to this point. Virginia started the year 2-0, but have dropped back-to-back conference games and seen their defense yield 96 points over that stretch. Losing to Alabama is nothing to feel bad about, but Miami dropped a home game to Michigan State that, quite frankly, the Spartans had complete control of. The biggest question surrounding this game is whether Miami QB D’Eriq King will be good enough to go. It appeared yesterday that he was leaning towards playing, but the latest rumblings out of Miami haven’t been so promising. King’s absence would be a huge loss, but I do think we saw enough out of backup Jake Garcia last week to realistically believe he can show competence against this Virginia defense. Miami doesn’t have the most explosive run game, but they do feature a steady #1 back in Cam’Ron Harris. The Virginia front 7 has been dreadful in conference play, so the path is clear for Miami to establish the run and give their young QB some good looks down the field. Rhett Lashlee is proven as an OC, and I’d expect a good gameplan from the ‘Canes. Virginia’s offense has proven to be quite explosive with lefty gunslinger Brennan Armstrong at the helm; Armstrong is averaging 426 yards/game, good for 2nd in all of CFB. I’m not high on Miami’s defense at all; the notion that Manny Diaz is some defensive savant has to end. The Cavs can get one dimensional at times and veer away from the run, but I would expect Bronco Mendenhall to refine his gameplan given Virginia’s failures over the last 2 weeks. Neither defense is very polished, and both teams play with quite a bit of pace. I anticipate a back-and-forth game that flirts with reaching the 70 point mark. Over is the play. 

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday WNBA Totals Play + Football info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Thursday card has The MLB Get away Game of the Year with a 100% Late season System as well as NFL and ACC College Football. WNBA Comp Play below.

The WNBA Comp Play is on the Over 170 in the Phoenix at Las Vegas game at 10:00 eastern. Las Vegas is number one in scoring and field goal percentage. In the series the last 7 here have flown over. Phoenix is 7 of 8 over as a playoff dog, 6 of 7 vs a winning team and 17 of 24 off a loss. Las Vegas has flown over in 4 of the last 5 at home, 8 of 11 off a spread loss and 8 of 10 on Thursdays. The pace will be fast again here tonight. Look for Phoenix and Las Vegas to fly over the total. Rob V- GC Sports.

1...477478479...674Page 478 of 674